I have long maintained that the leftish / liberalish political camp will prevail in this country simply because of baked in demographic trends.
The older generations that support the R camp are already dying off pretty fast, and the younger generations coming along are far more liberal, far better educated in respect to the sciences, compared to their elders, and far more able to think for themselves, since they’re no longer confined to getting their news from a few tv networks and a few major papers.
The D’s are perfectly positioned, long term to take over the country, and could do so a LOT sooner if they would back off somewhat on some of the cultural issues that infuriate the hell out of people that vote R.
They’re going to win on those issues LATER,due to demographics, regardless of how much they emphasize them now, to their detriment on election days.
Even in places like Alabama, the young people aren’t half as enthusiastic about their religion as their parents and grand parents.
But if you insult somebody’s parents, you can expect them to give you the straight finger, as sure as the sun rising tomorrow. So they vote R, to a substantial extent, because D’s are so quick to badmouth their cultural values, or those of their PARENTS, even when they themselves last set foot in a church for a funeral or a wedding a year or more ago. Sometimes ten years ago.
The big issue in both parties is really about the money. Especially since citizens united our country has been controlled by the donors, and that’s both parties. It’s the sold out, corrupt establishment vs the populists in both parties. Congress has something like an 11% approval rating because the only things they can pass are intensely unpopular bills written by lobbyists. On the left, populists like Bernie Sanders poll at 65% approval ratings and on the right even a complete idiot like Trump can be elected by being populist / anti-establishment.
The Democratic establishment is fighting populism hard with a recent purge of Ellison supporters and appointment of new oil and gas lobbyists as super delegates. The Republican establishment is starting to revolt against Trump. Hard to say which sides will win, but it looks the the democrats are committed to running loosing establishment candidates. On the right, we might get a right wing populist who isn’t incompetent, and we will head further down the path to fascism.
I am going to disagree with you about the statement of younger people being able to think for themselves more than the older generation.
The key word here, is ‘think’.
When you have grown up with play dates as opposed to outside play time, organized activities without having to deal with boredom and the need to entertain oneself, when every waking moment is screen time/interaction, and school focus is for test outcomes; thinking for oneself is not part of the recipe.
Older folks may have been quicker to assume the news broadcast was truthful, and that politicians were basically serving, but that was put to bed with the death of Walter Cronkite and the Gulf of Tonkin incident.
I taught high school for 17 years. When I was a grade 11 student I read Hemingway, Camus, and Sartre. I became a tradesman and commercial pilot before attending post secondary in my 30s. We listened to Bob Dylan and questioned our scripted futures. With the odd exception (which I can list on one hand), my students up until my retirement 5 years ago, did the bare minimum if I let them get away with it, (which I assuredly did not!). They felt that C quality work deserved a B or A, and would argue for a raise. I had to forcibly confiscate cell phones at the beginning of class. I had parents come in and argue with me to increase their child’s final mark, with 20+ absences in a term. They felt they were entitled, and that my duty was to fulfill their expectations.
Also, the maturity of today’s students is light years behind of that cohort of the ’60s and ’70s, (my generation). Of course, I write this as a rural Canadian who worked from age 13, and not as a suburban city dweller. What I did notice the past 20 years is that even rural kids these days seem to mostly share an urban culture in clothes, outlook, and expectation. Mind you, this doesn’t apply to those few individulas who are brought up to be independent.
Well said Paulo—
As a former teacher also, and still interacting with my younger friends, they are quite clueless.
I will say the Millennials that I interact with (I used to hire them for ranch work) as least know they are screwed. These were mostly creative types (actors, writers, etc) so the sample was biased.
The rot began setting in once liberal ways of thinking overtook the public school system. First all the new teachers had to be card-carrying registered democrats, then (once that was completed over the span of a few decades) liberalism was free to creep into every lesson plan. The result was quite predictable. American public schools turned into factories of mass indoctrination and conformism in which upcoming generations are taught what they should think rather than how they should think. Consequently, western capitalism’s inherent mechanisms of self-preservation and correction have been utterly demolished to make way for the leftist ideals of collectivism and political correctness. With that, America has become adrift with no moral compass.
I leave you with a picture illustrating how our public schools have failed American society.
26 yo here… My schools weren’t that bad in elementary school and middle, but towards the end of high school, that’s when the SJW types started taking over everywhere. That was the real downfall I would say. Once social media was grown when I was a jr and sr in hs, somebody would get offended over just about anything, then go online to start ruining lives about it. Teachers just pretty much had to go along with whatever. The no child left behind testing every year was a joke to but that’s another completely different topic.
Too vs to.
Maybe you missed that day?
It’s lost on me how that image above illustrates public schools failing American society. It looks like a grade one class.
“It’s lost on me how that image above illustrates public schools failing American society.”
They are supposed to be cringing in desks that are several sizes too big for them while the teacher screams at them as the had one word wrong in the national anthem.
NAOM
could do so a LOT sooner if they would back off somewhat on some of the cultural issues that infuriate the hell out of people that vote R.
Mac, could you explain what you mean by this? It makes no sense to me. As far as I can tell, the fury of conservative voters has nothing at all to do with what “liberals” actually say. When I look at Fox News, for instance, I find anecdotal reports of some teacher or professor saying something insulting about something related to conservatism, and it’s clear that one can find such things if one looks hard enough, regardless of the overall tone and content of what liberals say or think. Trump came to prominence in large part by claiming that Obama was born in Kenya, and most republican voters still believe it. So, what does it matter how careful liberals are about what they say? Fox News will report the same stuff regardless.
I suspect, despite what you say about being a cynic about human nature, that you’re really a romantic at heart – you’d like to believe that voters will do the right thing, given half a chance. And…I think you’re right! But…they’re not getting good information, so they’re not getting that chance. And as long as that’s true, we have a problem that won’t be fixed by better electoral tactics on the part of Democrats, or more politeness on the part of liberals (though, of course, politeness is always constructive).
Trump came to prominence in large part by claiming that Obama was born in Kenya, and most republican voters still believe it.
Not really!
You should watch this talk by Robert Reich, he has a pretty good feel for the pulse of the American electorate. BTW, It was already posted by Gone Fishing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm9SUffhQhE
Robert Reich ‘Preparing Our Economy for the Impact of Automation AI’ – Talks at Google
I don’t think he has every minor detail right. But given he has spent a very considerable part of his adult life in politics in Washington. He has a pretty darn good grasp of the big picture.
He’s arguing that trump voters are those whose median incomes are falling, yes?
That’s not inconsistent with what I said. Lot’s of people could have represented those voters, but they chose Trump. One big reason was his willingness to lie to voters, especially in ways calculated to play on their fears and angers and focus those fears and angers on convenient scapegoats.
Claiming that Obama stole the election, and was really an African and foreigner, was one of those lies.
Hi Nick,
It may take a while to get what I’m talking about across, please bear with me. What’s obvious to me seems to be be Greek to people who lack my perspective, having grown up in a very conservative, religious culture, leaving it, living in a university / city bohemian environment for ten years or so hanging out as a special grad student, marrying a hot young blossom Jewish woman from NYC, and then coming back to my same childhood society, which is still much the same in some respects.
Strange as it sounds today, even to ME, I once had shoulder length hair, a corncob in my pocket stuffed tight with high octane wacky baccy, and a chain around my neck with a peace symbol on it, and I even marched in some anti nuclear parades .
So .. some points to ponder. SERIOUSLY.
I post here as a COACH, mostly, politically, letting the chips fall where they may, but doing my best to indicate what the liberalish / leftish political wing, meaning the D party, more or less, should be doing to WIN ELECTIONS.
Now it’s pretty goddamned obvious to me that not even one person out of a dozen, or three dozen, of all the hundreds I have met and talked to since the sixties, who grew up in a home where there were books, educated parents, respect for knowledge, where professionals such as doctors and engineers were LOOKED UP TO, etc, and where above all there was some MONEY for the better things, etc, ….. well, that sort of people can no better understand what working class conservative cultural life is REALLY like, than as one of my old professors put it, a man can REALLY understand what it’s LIKE to have a BABY. She had a couple, and she held a full professorship at my university, so I guess she knew what she was talking about.
Most of us have had to WORK at getting along with a lover or spouse who for one reason or another has some far different values, and hot buttons different from our own. Pretend for a minute you are a guy, which I presume you are, and that you are living with a woman who has some ISSUES with you, for one reason or another . If you insist on picking on her hot buttons, you WILL WIND UP SLEEPING ON THE FUCKING SOFA , rather than in bed with her, fucking. Ya get it, I ‘m just about dead sure, lol. 😉
So …… listen carefully, I’m talking as your COACH, rather than as your teammate, or your opponent. You want to make use of the strengths of your team, and avoid doing things that energize and motivate your opposition team. Any coach will tell you that making fun of an upcoming opponent is a good way to fire them up so that they may just upset your supposedly superior team right ?
Now suppose you are looking at the issue of gay and lesbian rights. Do you have the faintest reason to believe that the VAST majority of gays and lesbians aren’t going to vote D, without even considering voting R for a SECOND? So the gay and lesbian voters are ON BOARD, you do NOT need to be devoting much time or energy catering to them. This is simple reality.
You ought to be putting MORE of your time and energy toward convincing the larger, more general and diverse voting blocks to vote D, because that’s how you can win MORE total votes. DO NOT FORGET that gays and lesbians have very much the same sort of problems as working class red neck religious conservatives who don’t know doo doo from apple butter about much of anything outside their own personal experiences.
These right wingers SHARE the employment problem, the health care problem, the school problem, the crime problem, the cost of living problem …. with gays and lesbians …… ya get it?
Now I have YET to meet a true blue city girl who grew up in a well to do liberal environment and majored in art or English or whatever, such as my second wife, my hot young Jewish woman, who has EVER really UNDERSTOOD that old country people are just as serious about their right to own guns as THEY are about the right to have an abortion.Well, my princess finally came to understand this, and to be relaxed in a home with guns on the walls, but this took a LONG time. IMMERSION time. She even learned to shoot.
Ninety percent of all the women I have ever talked to about abortions insist on calling it their right to choose, and they are no more interested , or even CAPABLE, of understanding that people from my childhood background believe abortion is MURDER, than my hound is capable of doing arithmetic.
They don’t WANT to understand this, so they DON’T, just as I believe to the bottom of my heart that if they get their way, the D establishment will eventually come for my guns. Maybe they won’t, but I don’t want to BELIEVE THAT.
Do you really believe any liberal young woman or older woman who is a life long D will ever vote R if the D party backs off on EMPHASIZING this right to choose / right to life issue? No way in hell, they are ON BOARD, and will stay on board , and vote D as reliably as the sun coming up.
The resources devoted by the D party to this issue would be better spent by diverting most of them to more general issues, such as public health.
And there are WAYS to talk to conservatives that resonate with them, that don’t irritate them and piss them off. I have posted many many comments about ways I do this myself, some of them as recently as this last week, about how advertisers use freedom of the press to teach THEIR OWN CHILDREN to eat junk food, to BEG for junk food, remember that? It RESONATES with a conservative with brains enough to see that fat people get sick oftener and die younger than thin people, that smokers get sick oftener and die younger than non smokers, etc.
Get over the nose in the air attitude, which is amply demonstrated by your own words.
” As far as I can tell, the fury of conservative voters has nothing at all to do with what “liberals” actually say. ”
All I can say is that sort of statement demonstrates a near total lack of understanding, a near total lack of ability to put yourself in the other person’s shoes.
This does NOT mean however that I’m saying a typical conservative voter is RIGHT, on the facts, or that his or her mores and values are superior to yours. They’re just DIFFERENT, in the sense that I’m trying to explain my ideas and talk to you as a COACH.
I don’t LIKE everything about the overall stereotypical liberal agenda, although I believe in MOST of it. And when I’m conflicted, as in respect to my Second Amendment rights and beliefs, well, I HAVE to come down on the side of the D’s because I’m above all a realist, and any realist with enough brains to know bullshit from apple butter knows that the ENVIRONMENT is THE ISSUE , the ONE issue that overrides and trumps all other issues combined. (This is excepting short term survival, because there IS no long term, if we don’t survive the short term. On the other hand, if we don’t get the environmental issue right, there isn’t going to BE any long term for most of us. )
And I understand demographics, and the way our society is changing, and so I know that eventually the Second Amendment will be either repealed or so severely curtailed that it will be damned hard to own a bb gun, lol.
You naturally but unfortunately expect other people who lack your obviously broad and deep knowledge to think like you do, or accept your guidance, but the minds of naked apes just don’t work that way.
Consider subsidized health care. The reality PERCEIVED by one of my neighbors, a real true case, is that when he went to the hospital for heart problems, he was billed fifty grand, and had to pay it, out of pocket, or else the debt collectors would come take his farm. Now this guy worked half a day, every day, as the old joke goes, twelve hours, for forty or more years, starting with nothing, to save and scrimp and put back every fucking DIME into that farm.
And then ( his opinion, not mine, I think like a biologist in this situation, and a biologist thinks a tick on a dog’s back is just as worthy of life as the dog, ya see, and no more to be faulted for sucking the dog’s blood than the dog is for eating a momma rabbit’s babies) as HE sees it, another neighbor who has pissed away his money on rent and nice cars and meals out and is basically broke and has no assets worth seizing goes to the same hospital and gets his bill written off.
Now do you begin to get just a GLIMMER of why the ant HATES the fucking grasshopper and believes that the goal of socialized medicine aka single payer is to force him to pay his own bills as WELL as his deadbeat ( his opinion, not mine in this context) neighbors? And WHY he has nothing but contempt for anybody who proposes single payer?
Now of course you will say that his problem is that he doesn’t realize that his own living standard will go UP , rather than down, with single payer. I AGREE, but that’s not my point. MY point is to try to get across what HE believes about subsidies, and the government forcing him to pay more than his own fair share.
He believes he NEEDS some or all of the nasty pesticides that have been outlawed, but he doesn’t, not really, for reasons I have explained at length her in this forum at times. His competitive position will be as good WITHOUT them as with them, so long as NOBODY is allowed to use them anymore. Maybe even better.
But FACTS don’t matter in this context, what MATTERS is what he believes, and he believes environmentalists are out to make it impossible for him to make a living, and he knows that the environmental camp is allied to the D camp, so he votes R for these reasons.
I’m well into writing a book about all this stuff, but it’s turning out to be quite a time consuming project, and I’ m never quite satisfied with anything, and always rewriting, trying to do a better job. It may never be finished at the rate I’m going, lol.
Most elections in this country are won or lost by only a few percentage points.
If the D’s get their shit together, they can win enough MORE middle of the road voters and even some right wingers over, and get into control again.
” As far as I can tell, the fury of conservative voters has nothing at all to do with what “liberals” actually say. ” All I can say is that sort of statement demonstrates a near total lack of understanding, a near total lack of ability to put yourself in the other person’s shoes.
No, Mac, I just didn’t succeed in communicating my question.
Here’s my question (in different words – perhaps I’ll succeed this time):
In my opinion, conservative media will create hot button issues for their audience. They’ll cherry-pick anecdotal comments by some isolated professor or congress-critter, or…they’ll just make stuff up. Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Hannity and so forth will find things that make it look like “liberals” are disrespectful of conservatives, whatever “liberals” actually say or think.
I look at Fox News, and that’s what I see. I don’t think what “liberals” say about conservatives has much to do with how Fox News will portray what “liberals” have to say.
In the Land of Lies and Make Believe the Truth is an outcast.
Back atcha Nick,
There is certainly a substantial element of truth in your assertions about right winger media cherry picking some liberals to fire up the conservative base.
But you STILL DON’T GET IT. If these things weren’t being said often enough by enough liberals……. this cherry picking wouldn’t work.
Look, I don’t want to accuse YOU of stupidity the way I do HB.
But consider his blaming HRC’s email problems on conservatives and the FBI, lol. SHE’s the person who CREATED the secret email system.SHE’s the person who got her ass caught with it. SHE DID IT.
Whether it was Russians, or Assange, or a pissed off insider, or who ever, broke the news, is entirely irrelevant to the fact that SHE is the one who did it.
You are refusing to believe or accept the incontestable fact ( imo) that when SOME liberals say these sort of things, conservatives take the saying of them as being representative of liberals COLLECTIVELY.
Now whether this is actually the case, that liberals collectively want to collect all the guns, or force every nickel and dime businessman to do business that’s against his heartfelt values, or take away the fertilizers and pesticides that enable me to farm successfully, or whatever, is IRRELEVANT to my point, in context.
Some of the more intelligent and best informed scientifically informed members of this forum habitually make fun of conservatives and religious people. Now when such a person happens across this forum, he sees these comments, and since these people are invariably liberals, well he just perfectly naturally associates all liberals with this sort of talk and values. Values of his ENEMIES.
Look, you are a pretty smart fellow, whereas I may be only a fart smeller, but you tend to make things more complicated than they are.
Things are a LOT simpler than you make them out to be. Not very many people make their personal and cultural decisions on the basis of deep thinking. They make them on the basis of allying themselves with people who think the way they do and share their values. This is roughly as true of a typical university educated liberal as it is of the most ignorant backwoods hillbilly.
If you think a particular person is upstanding and worthy of admiration, you just naturally assume that his FRIENDS and PEERS are that same sort , because cliche or no, birds of a feather really do flock together.
If you think he’s a clown, or less than a worthy person, it’s perfectly natural to assume his friends , his peers, the people he IDENTIFIES with, are similarly clowns or less than worthy people.
I’m painting with a broad brush, very fast.
The stereotypical liberal who is afraid of guns, and I have met LOTS of them, who knows next to nothing about the culture of people who own guns, as part of their heritage, tends to believe the worst about guns and gun owners, because he WANTS to believe the worst.
Ditto, my typical neighbor believes that the Democrat/ liberal establishment’s long term plan is to come into his home, and confiscate his guns, because he WANTS to believe that. And while you may deny this possibility, he has reason enough to believe it, because the typical liberal who comments on it makes it PERFECTLY clear that he wants this country to be a place where only cops and soldiers have guns, with maybe a few rare exceptions, such as are made in most Western European countries.
AND the conservative with guns, thinking these thoughts, concludes that these exceptions are merely camouflage, intended to lead him to thinking the liberal establishment REALLY does want his grandfathers pistol, or the shotgun he has for home defense, or to go rabbit hunting, etc, collected and crushed for scrap metal.
This whole thing boils down to the old observation of give’em an inch, and they’ll want a mile, over and over, for each inch you give up, and it applies BOTH WAYS, culturally.
Don’t forget I’m not trying to argue what is RIGHT , or WRONG, morally, or ethically, about guns, or abortions, or whatever.
I’m just trying to get liberals and big D democrats to face up to the fact that they have lost control of the country, and that if they want to get back into control again, they need to be doing some heavy duty thinking about what they emphasize and what they don’t, politically,because if they don’t win back at least the number of voters they have lost to the right wing on these issues, they will STAY in the doghouse for quite a while yet.
Now demographic trends will solve the gun problem, if you see guns as a problem, within another generation, or two at the most, because the hard core of the people who are very comfortable with and used to guns and own them as casually as you own a family photo album or books, will be dead and gone, and the urbanites will so vastly outnumber the remaining younger country people that the collection process will proceed apace.
I maintain that the overriding issue of our times , the issue that trumps all other issues COMBINED, is the environmental issue. If we don’t get our shit together on the environment, collectively, as a country and as a species, all of our other current day problems will solve themselves, because life as we know it will cease to exist.
And the D’s are infinitely better positioned in the USA to deal with our environmental problems than the R’s, especially if the younger generation, the Sanders generation, gains control of the D party soon. The establishment D party is not a whole lot better than what I accuse it of being on a regular basis……….. the Republican Lite party, owned and operated by the banksters and giant corporations and so forth.
“Look, I don’t want to accuse YOU of stupidity the way I do HB”
“SHE’s the person who CREATED the secret email system”
Hey Rube, how the fuck does someone have a secret account with over 30,000 emails ? Just because HRC never sent you an email, doesn’t make it secret.
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster(OFM) is a Russian Republican Rube FoxNews watcher.
We all want to see your fake “hot” second wife who put you on the couch with your gun in your little palm. Let’s see your Melania Trumpster wedding picture.
And by the way, where is the stupid book you’ve been working on for the last 10 years? or is it just more fake Trumpster.
Mrs. Trumpster #2
Yair . . . .
This statement is absolutely, utterly, totally incorrect in the Australian context . . . .
“far better educated in respect to the sciences, compared to their elders”
Sure there are some bright kids who have soaked up some knowledge but, for the most part, young ‘uns are gormless, clueless, and, unless it relates to sport or reality tv they don’t even want to know . . . if there is a power outage most of them can’t give change.
On top of that (in the past) I have been trying to give work experience to fourteen and fifteen year olds who lacked the co-ordination and dexterity to one handed turn the worm of an adjustable wrench or turn a screw one handed with a normal hand screw driver . . . I was told, “no one does that shit any more, where’s the power driver?”
Interesting overview of Russian bots interfering with American politics.
Abstract
Elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) stimulates wheat grain yield, but simultaneously reduces protein/nitrogen (N) concentration. Also, other essential nutrients are subject to change. This study is a synthesis of wheat experiments with eCO2, estimating the effects on N, minerals (B, Ca, Cd, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, P, S, Zn), and starch. The analysis was performed by (i) deriving response functions to assess the gradual change in element concentration with increasing CO2 concentration, (ii) meta-analysis to test the average magnitude and significance of observed effects, and (iii) relating CO2 effects on minerals to effects on N and grain yield. Responses ranged from zero to strong negative effects of eCO2 on mineral concentration, with the largest reductions for the nutritionally important elements of N, Fe, S, Zn, and Mg. Together with the positive but small and non-significant effect on starch concentration, the large variation in effects suggests that CO2-induced responses cannot be explained only by a simple dilution model. To explain the observed pattern, uptake and transport mechanisms may have to be considered, along with the link of different elements to N uptake. Our study shows that eCO2 has a significant effect on wheat grain stoichiometry, with implications for human nutrition in a world of rising CO2.
There is substantial reason for concern, although at this time with CO2 levels what they are today, it’s not a serious problem…… SO FAR.
Later on……. It could be a problem.
Apparently the C-13 content of methane is lower indicating that the non-fossil sources are adding a significant amount to the atmosphere. Buckle up friends, could be rough ahead.
For some strange reason I’ve been interested in methane since the days we used to do surveys in the Arctic and (methane) clathrate layers complicated seismic interpretation.
METHANE SEEPS OUT AS ARCTIC PERMAFROST STARTS TO RESEMBLE SWISS CHEESE
“Global warming may be unleashing new sources of heat-trapping methane from layers of oil and gas that have been buried deep beneath Arctic permafrost for millennia. As the Earth’s frozen crust thaws, some of that gas appears to be finding new paths to the surface through permafrost that’s starting to resemble Swiss cheese in some areas….”
“This is another methane source that has not been included so much in the models,” said the study’s lead author, Katrin Kohnert, a climate scientist at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, Germany. “If, in other regions, permafrost becomes discontinuous, more areas will contribute geologic methane.”
Since the study only covered two years, it doesn’t show long-term trends, but it makes a strong argument that there is significant methane escaping from trapped layers of oil and gas, Schuur said.
The obvious solution is to extract that oil and gas as fast as possible, burn it, and release the much less powerful greenhouse gas CO2 instead of all that methane. Win, Win! /sarc
All we need is space borne reflector sheets to orbit the earth and shade it. I figure a 20 percent reduction might be enough to chill things down and we could really boost the economy by doing it.
Then the snow plow jobs would increase, even in Florida. 🙂
Great article. Based squarely in the scientific realm but accessible to the layperson.
ARCTIC SEA ICE MAY BE DECLINING FASTER THAN EXPECTED
Arctic sea ice may be thinning faster than predicted because salty snow on the surface of the ice skews the accuracy of satellite measurements, a new study from the University of Calgary. The report from the university’s Cryosphere Climate Research Group published in the academic journal Geophysical Research Letters found satellite estimates for thickness of seasonal sea ice have been overestimated by up to 25 percent. That means the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free much sooner than some scientific predictions, which forecast sea ice will first disappear completely during summer months between 2040 and 2050.
As much as any other reason, it’s because both major political party’s are owned and operated as subsidiary property of people like the Sackler family, or worse.
This response is targeted at the Trumpster comment on opioid supply-
I disagree. Drug use is about demand, not the supply.
Prohibition failed because the demand kept up.
The ‘drug war’ can’t be won by going after supply.
I disagree with your disagreement. According to the article, the Sick Sacklers did plenty to create the demand, and many doctors are still doing plenty to continue the same. I will agree that it’s not at all a one-sided problem, and there are lots of factors that help to create a demand for drugs.
Hi Hickory,
The demand is certainly there. The question can be rephrased as to WHY demand has exploded in recent times.
If you re read the article with this question in mind, you will see that demand has been DELIBERATELY CREATED by the owners of the company that above all others is the supplier of the drugs involved.
Controlling the supply is not the be all and end all, it won’t solve the problem by any means. But it sure as hell will help a lot, especially in terms of stopping it from growing.
Nothing pisses me off worse than self serving lying hypocrisy for profit. The pharma industry is one of the very worst sellers of misery and death for profit.
And this particular family goes around making itself out to be a pillar of society to deflect criticism.
They’re buzzards in swan camo. I apologize to any buzzards in the audience. Buzzards mostly don’t go eat their dinner ALIVE. They have the good grace to wait for it to die on its own.
We know people start smoking and drinking in large part because alcohol and tobacco are advertised, and have had a great deal of success in reducing ( from what MIGHT HAVE BEEN OTHERWISE ) levels of smoking and drinking by regulating advertising and marketing of these two killers.
The pharma industry has discovered ways to circumvent the customary laws rules against methods of stoking demand for dangerous products, pushing them via salesmen to doctors, bribery to doctors and pharmacists, ads in medical journals, capture of regulatory agencies, bribery of politicians, etc.
One reason I’m so down on the D’s is that they are about as bad as the R’s in allowing this sort of thing to continue. They’re not AS BAD, but they’re still guilty as hell.
There’s real hope for the D’s doing the RIGHT THINGS, to a substantially greater extent, if the Sanders camp gains more influence in the D party.
It seems to me that there’s little difference between doctors, drug companies, mechanics and realtors: they all try to uphold a certain level of ethics, and they all fail a great deal of the time.
The difference is that we expect more from people who are supposed heal us. If someone charges us for an air filter and fails to install it in our car, the harm is limited. If they charge us for a lifesaving drug, and give us something that is addicting or has major side effects, the harm is tragic.
I seem to remember reading something o a web site related to “alternative” medicine that, modern western medical education was heavily influenced by early owners of pharmaceutical drugs in an effort to get doctors that would prioritize the use of drugs over alternative remedies. The following link more or less sums up the idea:
It might seem like a bit of a crackpot conspiracy theory but, the way things are at the moment lends some credibility to the idea IMO. How else does one explain the paucity of knowledge amongst the general medical profession about the effective use of vitamin C, for example. Look up Fred R. Klenner, a medical doctor who did some work with vitamin C back in the 1930-40s and published his findings in a Clinical Guide to the Use of Vitamin C. Most people including the vast majority of MDs have never heard of Klenner. Why? It would certainly not suit the pharmaceutical industry for Klenners finding to be widely known.
There’s also the story of one Abram Hoffer and his work with niacin (vitamin B-3) on patients with mental issues like schizophrenia. I know someone who has been told she will have to take a certain prescription for the rest of her life and it ain’t cheap. That seems like a very cozy arrangement to me!
I’m not defending suppliers, however
-if it wasn’t for demand the thousands who grow weed in the national forests wouldn’t have a market
-if it wasn’t for demand the beheadings in Latin America (Narco War) would be unfunded
-if it wasn’t for demand the ER’s around the country wouldn’t be flooded with people demanded their opiates
Wait a minute now! We were talking about the opioid epidemic, not pot. I don’t know for sure that you’re a scientist, but you are in the midst of several here (which doesn’t include me, for sure) , so I assume you do know the vast difference in the effects on the human body/brain between opioids and pot. So, let’s be sure to note the difference.
That said, I’m not saying it’s all the suppliers fault either, but those thousands of doctors who let the drug reps/pharma guys buy them into ignoring what they should have known was harmful, indeed, were required to study as part of their job qualifications, bear a significant share of blame. Now, after this “opioid emergency” plays out, in about 5 years or less, let’s compare the number of those “legal dope dealers” in jail or prison with the millions of lower-class (my class) pot-smokers who were caught with a joint in their pocket and were jailed and otherwise entangled in our fucked-up, pay-me-monthly-probation scheme.
Have you read anything about our government’s complicity in the higher levels of the dope business internationally? It’s really not a secret, and although I can’t personally verify the truth of the reports I’ve read, I also can’t refute them. When good old Uncle Sam wants to topple the government of a small foreign country, and install it’s own type of thug, it seems the rules that apply to us po’ folk don’t apply.
Now, to tie this to my other reply on the Otto trucking idea, why don’t we go ahead and get rid of another few million jobs that us lower-class folks have, along with those many millions already eliminated (whether offshored or automated), and lets see what happens when people get to sit on their asses all day and remember when they used to get up and go to work, then come home tired but satisfied that they did their part that day.
Yeah, I think Joe Bageant made some good observations about the real battle being a class thing, and not a racial thing.
‘Nuff of my out-in-left-field thinking.
I agree that it’s a class thing.
But…to what extent do working people understand that?? It seems that most have had their anger diverted towards scapegoats: immigrants, foreigners, women, blacks, government employees, “elite intellectuals”, etc., etc.
Homerun Nick! Myself and about 2 other blue-collar stiffs seem to comprise the group that understand that. The others yelled “Go Trump, you da man!” I associate almost entirely with my own socio-economic group, and quite often when at gatherings of same, some guy I’ve just met, while admiring antique trucks or tractors, or listening to bluegrass music, will throw out an opening political remark about how Trump is trying to help us out if them damn Democrats will just let him do what he wants to do. I’m not much for big political discussions while I’m trying to enjoy myself, or any other time really, so lots of times I just ask how many billionaires do they know who ever gave a shit if they made a livable wage, or had food on their table, and that’s usually the end of that.
They usually just look at me kinda funny and drop it.
Actually I would drop “elite intellectuals” from your list of scapegoats though. Most of us po’ trash don’t use 4-syllable words, and seriously, I’m not sure that most of us realize that there is an elite intellectual class or sub-class. I lay the blame for that partly on our piss-poor public school systems, and partly on the parents, and it’s just a repeating cycle, a hard one to break. We’ve gotten some beautiful new schools in my area in the last decade or so, but the kids are still passing through mostly half-educated.
It’s called homework. I taught elementary school for 3 years after a long stint at high school; ( a rural school so I could work where I lived. All subjects included, grades 4-6).
The most common note I sent home was:
“________ does not know her times tables. This has to be drilled at home, WITHOUT a calculator. They have to be memorized at least to 12X12. There is no time to do this at school. It has to be practiced at home, like it always has been done”.
I supplied flash cards and drills in game format. I bought them and gave them away.
At conference time the message was a little different: “________ mentioned that she wants to go into nursing. (one example). In order to do this ________will have to obtain a degree, a science degree. It requires advanced math for placement. _______ still does not know her times tables. If she does not learn her times tables, she will not understand fractions. She also will struggle with algebra. If she connot do those basics she will not be able to go into sciences. She will not be admitted into a nursing program”.
Last year I met a buddy for breakfast at a chain restaurant. The food was the shits. ______was my waitress. Undoubtably, her parents will say it is the school system’s fault.
Yes, I agree. As my post noted, partly schools fault, partly parents fault. I most definitely agree about the homework, which is clearly the parents responsibility. My mother taught me to read before I ever went to school. Of course it helped that I was forever pestering her to read my 2 years older sisters books to me. Along with anything else that had a picture that looked interesting to me.
Same with arithmetic. When a cashier can’t make change without a machine doing it for her/him/it, that’s pretty sad in my opinion.
A major reason that children and parents are not as functional as in the past is that they are being starved of good nutrition. Add the poor eating choices to the fact that modern agriculture is building bigger yet low mineral content plants and we have a fat but nutritionally starved population.
There’s zero doubt in my mind that while pot has been the cause of a few people dying, as the result of disputes among suppliers and dealers, and as the result of automobile accidents, etc, pot is as benign as a beagle puppy compared to a slavering raging pit bull, in comparison to BEER.
You can’t legislate morality.Alcohol prohibition enabled organized crime to grow up in this country. There’s zero reason why I shouldn’t be allowed to grow and sell pot just like beer is manufactured and sold, except stupidity on the part of the public and rent seeking on the part of people who manage to get in early in the legalization process.
Demand can be created, and HAS BEEN CREATED, for soft drinks, for beer, for cigarettes, flashy cars, etc, by MARKETING these products in ways deliberately designed to increase sales.
Every sonofabitch involved in PUSHING the sale of habit forming drugs for the sake of his bottom line ought to be in jail.
Now that these people have managed to supply these drugs in such vast quantities that diverting them to the black market is easy and extremely profitable, we not only have the addiction problem, we have the heartbreaking problem of a million people, several million people, being in extreme pain that are no longer able to get these drugs, because THEY don’t know how to find a black market supplier, and their physicians are AFRAID to prescribe them.
I’ve actually given some thought , personally, to going looking for a connection, and I, being an old hippie, and an old hillbilly of the sort that feels lopsided without a pistol to counterbalance my wallet, DO know how. WHY?
Because I’m literally scared that maybe I, or somebody extremely important to me, won’t be able to get a prescription for such painkillers and may suffer horribly as the result. I’ve watched people die in agony from pain, and know more than a couple, three at least, who committed suicide mostly for that reason.
My best friend who died about four years ago now suffered horribly from pain, and wasn’t able to get anything good enough to really control it until the last three or four weeks out of his last year, when his doctors were able to put themselves TOTALLY in the clear by being able to justify it by saying he had no more than another thirty days to live.
His chances of living more than that year were pretty close to zero, given that he had pancreatic cancer that had spread to his liver. I offered to find him something, but being afflicted with male stupidity, he chose to tough it out.
Just when I thought the advent of electric transport might lead to a quieter world, along comes the burrito delivery drones:
Can’t say that I’m looking forward to that kind of buzz.
Maybe they’ll make enough noise that we can shoot’em down with shotguns loaded with trap loads with reduced powder charges, lol. Or maybe even slingshots.
Communities have long standing and thoroughly established authority in law to regulate the level of noise generated by commercial activities.
So hopefully delivery drones won’t get to be too big a problem, in terms of noise.
I just had a great idea. Somebody can run with it. Install a little homing signal device at each house that wants delivery by drone, to make it easier for the drone to deposit its load quicker and easier, and maybe even from high altitude. If a burrito , or a bottle of pills, is well padded, it could be dropped from as much as two or three hundred feet up, directly above the homing point, without damaging it, lol. The potential is certainly there. Maybe I can get rich manufacturing miniature parachutes that can guide themselves to the homing device, so long as there’s no significant wind.
Why not hijack them and use them for your own purposes? But watch out for the Mother Drone, it’s armed and angry! 🙂
Amazon Will Now Deliver Inside Your Home — And Record the Whole Thing
by Alyssa Newcomb
Amazon wants to unlock your front door and deliver your packages when you’re not home.
In the fight against holiday season porch pirates, Amazon is launching a new delivery system that allows its couriers to leave packages inside your house or apartment. The entire process is done without a key or code — and the entire delivery is recorded on a camera that uploads to the cloud.
“I think it goes to show that Amazon is thinking very holistically about its products and services and how it ties all of its investments together in the smart home and retail,” Geoff Blaber, an analyst at CCS Insight, told NBC News.
But it won’t come cheap. Prime Members in the 37 cities where it’s launching will first have to order the $250 Amazon Key In-Home Kit, which includes Amazon’s new Cloud Cam and a compatible smart lock.
The driver is let into your home after Amazon verifies he or she is at the right address at the intended time. Once that’s complete, the door unlocks and the Cloud Cam starts recording.
So, let me get this straight. I buy, install and maintain, at my expense, a corporate surveillance device inside my house so that they can monitor the comings and goings through my front door.
You can’t make this stuff up. Well, maybe you can: Brave New World. Will they deliver Soma?
I knew Fatter, shorter, dumber, but things are getting worse—
Americans Are Retiring Later, Dying Sooner and Sicker In-Between
Same in the UK, the official figures out for Scotland show it and it’s expected to be the same once they are issued for England and Wales. Almost exactly as predicted by he Limits to Growth standard run, although that is for world population. I think the main feedbacks in that model is the reduction in available excess resources combined with lower per capita production in an older population, that can show up in reduced medical spending (either direct personal or via taxation), poorer diet, more stress etc. and hence falling life expectancy.
Increased sedentary lifestyle, poor food choices and low mineral content vegetables, combined with increased environmental toxins.
My generation got all the blessings, maxed out pollution (could see the air), the new farming practices with lots of chemicals added, processed food, more sedentary lifestyles, etc. I expect there to be a large blip in short lifespans which may or may not continue. Also add in the drugstore full of pharmaceuticals given to the elderly to “cure” them when it mostly makes them sicker. The particulate air pollution never really stopped.
We also had that large blip in radioactivity from all the surface nuclear tests.
We’re bringing these public and personal health troubles on ourselves, collectively and individually, mostly as the result of ignorance but also in large part from a lack of clear thinking.
There ARE ways that you can communicate with right wingers, and find common ground, and make common cause with them. The first rule is to refrain from insulting them, UNNECESSARILY, in doing so.
Now here’s a method that works VERY well, for me, in that it’s part of my tool kit that’s switched a dozen or more hard core righties into middle of the roaders who even vote leftie sometimes.
There’s a HUGE difference between supporting a law, custom, or policy as a matter of principle, and supporting it as a matter of practical reality.
At our informal little “country club” where anywhere from four or five guys to a dozen (retired mostly, some who work come on slow days ) show up at my next door neighbor’s farm shop every afternoon to tell lies and enjoy a few brews , we discuss everything from astronomy to zucchini. When the time is right, I steer the conversation this way.
Consider the typical libertarian / liberal/ conservative ( YES, this DOES apply to all three camps ) argument that we should be able to do as we please, as individuals, without interference from the guv’mint, so long as we are not harming other people. Just about everybody agrees that we should be allowed to eat what we please, etc, as a matter of law and moral principle, so long as we are not harming other people.
But we fail to realize that what’s good in principle can be VERY bad in practice, because we naked apes are creatures of habit, and our habits are very easily manipulated by people in the advertising industry. The FOOD industry ( as opposed to actual farmer / producers of food who are guilty of doing this to only a minor extent ) has hired the ad industry to teach us to eat junk food, and we have learned our lessons VERY well indeed. The entertainment industry likewise has taught us to recline on the sofa and watch people play ball rather than playing ball, or at least croquet, lol. We can’t even be bothered to change gears in a car anymore, or roll the windows up and down, lol.
Now all this advertising is FINE with my redneck conservative friends and acquaintances, because they say well, nobody is MAKING me eat fast food, it’s MY CHOICE. And what about freedom of the press, and so on?
I ask them if they believe all that advertising WORKS. Of course it does, and they’re quick to point out that nobody would be paying for it, otherwise.
Then I ask if eating junk food DOES make you get fat and sick younger and die earlier? The ones who can and do think a little ( Most of them can and do think a LOT more than the people who usually make fun of them would ever guess ) say yes, on average, eating junk food makes you fat, makes you sick, and shortens your life. The dumb ones don’t say anything, because the thought has never crossed their minds. At about this point, the smarter ones see the trap I am setting for them.
Do you think we are paying too much in taxes, and that maybe the guv’mint is running too many things, such as medicare and Social Security, etc? They have no choice but to say yes.
Fourth, suppose I’m a teacher, and I’m teaching your kids things that you KNOW are WRONG, and bad for your kids, and for your community and your country?
What should you do about it? The usual answers start with firing me, and extend to throwing me in jail, or worse.
So…… the last question…… Should Ronald McDonald be ALLOWED to teach your kids to eat junk food, by advertising it day after day, year in and year out, where they see these ads, to the point they BEG you to take them there for a dose of slow poison? Would you allow ME to do that to your kids? To teach them to smoke for instance, right fucking in front of you ?
Do you why McDonald’s pays out good hard cash to help low income parents visit their kids in hospitals? HINT….. It’s mostly because it keeps you from thinking about why so many kids are going to be hospitalized later due to diseases such as diabetes, which we KNOW are closely associated with eating junk food.
At this point, the less intelligent ones get mad and switch the subject, or start calling me names, such as commie panty wearing liberal , lol. The smarter ones get sort of quiet, and you can see their mental gears at work. They’ve just moved incrementally a small but significant distance away from the right wing and towards the middle, in terms of understanding how and why we need government to regulate our lives in some respects, because OTHERWISE….. unscrupulous businessmen can and DO MANIPULATE our lives at our expense for THEIR benefit.
If the time is right, I extend this line of reasoning to pointing out that like it or not, they are paying for treating these sick people with tax money,if they’re net tax payers, instead of tax eaters. And most of our little club ARE tax eaters, because we get more in old age bennies than we pay in taxes these days. The redneck Trump types don’t like to be REMINDED of this indisputable fact, but it’s grist for my mill for another day.
If each liberalish leftish leaning person would take the time to REALLY work at communicating with a right winger of his or her acquaintance, the D’s would be in control again a LOT sooner.
One of my students was a type 1 diabetic, newly diagnosed. We had a class discussion about the disease and all planned to help him settle in to his new reality. I asked parents not to send junk food or too many sweets in lunches as the poor little guy was struggling. Other kids kept trying to give him sweets, especially at halloween. One doofus Dad tuned me up and said, “No one tells me what I can or cannot send to school in my girl’s lunch”. Of course his daughter was also a fat cow.
Fuckit. You can’t fix stupid.
“Fuckit. You can’t fix stupid.”
I have felt the same, more days than not, and as far back as the days of the Greeks, somebody famously said that against stupidity the Gods themselves contend in vain.
But you can do a little to blunt the effects of it, from time to time. I gave up teaching myself in large part because I actually wanted to TEACH kids bright enough and willing to learn the abc’s of carpentry, electricity, mechanics, and applied biology aka farming.
Tomorrow or the next day, or next week, I’m going to have a lot more to say about education.
That was Friedrich Schiller in the 19th century.
Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.
And we get to pay 50% extra for PV due to trade war nonsense.
This suggests that increased CO2 reduces food quality.
Almost any industrial agricultural technology in widespread use today reduces the nutritional quality of food but mostly to minor extent. For instance the level of micro nutrients is often lower in commercial varieties, but not by a lot. The protein profile is apt to be a little less optimal for human nutrition in commercial wheat and rice, etc.
There are some IMPORTANT exceptions to this minor extent observation. Sometimes unhealthy fractions are much higher, as in sugars are higher in commercially produced fruits, but otoh, fruits are mostly sugar to begin with, lol.
The biggest exception is that industrial meat is higher in fat than is good for us.
And breeding of crops and animals, by either traditional or new tech methods can improve the quality of food substantially. Consider the case of golden rice for instance.
Overall, the increase in production far outweighs the loss in nutrients in terms of using added fertilizers, breeding for higher production, etc.
We ought to be open minded in terms of engineering our food supply.
It’s way better to eat a lot of affordable apples than just a few expensive apples, and high lysine corn can make the difference between being healthy and sick if you depend on corn as staple food, etc.
I’m not arguing that more co2 in the air is good for farmers. It may actually increase productivity for some farmers in some places. There’s evidence to this effect, for instance this is why co2 is sometimes enriched in greehouses.
But there’s OVERWHELMING evidence to the effect that in terms of the BIG PICTURE , more co2 is bad for farmers, and thus for everybody, on a global basis.
I would gladly trade butter for wine, but if they are short on wine then c’est la vie.
French consumers have not yet seen butter prices rise at the checkout because supermarket groups fix their prices once a year. But this means butter suppliers currently get better margins by selling elsewhere.
It’s a classic case of price controls causing an artificial shortage. On the other hand, it sounds like the old French system of butter quotas (that was abolished in 2015) was working better than this bust and boom and bust, which is the classic behavior of commodities.
No easy solutions…
Having just experienced a very warm October up here at 41N USA, it’s obviously linked to winds from the south and southwest. Temperatures just a few days ago hit 80F and have been consistently hitting the 60’s and 70’s, more 70’s than anything (used to snow here in October sometimes). So what if the wind patterns changed permanently, bringing up southern air a lot? I think that would overwhelm and add to any climate change. Anyone with recent information on consistent wind pattern shifts in North America?
Winds Of Change: North America’s Wind Patterns Have Shifted Significantly In The Past 30,000 Years
That’s another example of climate change just being one big cycle of always happening natural events. Unless you want to say people 30,000 years ago had oversized SUVs and pickup trucks causing wind patterns to shift?
I think you’ve managed to get six or seven logical fallacies into about three lines: red herring (all fallacies come down to that really), loaded question, straw man, denying the antecedent, vacuous truth, single cause fallacy, a hint of ad hominem, and probably others (fallacy of division, fallacy of composition, naturalistic fallacy), and behind them all for you there’s certainly the furtive fallacy – i.e. even if it’s true it’s someone else’s fault and responsibility and probably a conspiracy.
Hi George,
DiamondJoe hasn’t the faintest clue what any of “them there fifty cent words” mean, unless he’s a human progamming bots or a real live fossil fuel bankster troll with SUBSTANTIALLY greater more than average levels of data and working neurons between his ears.
The biggest single reason well educated and well intentioned and mostly clear thinking liberals can’t understand why the world is in such a sorry state, and working class and poor people often vote against their own best long term interests, is that they just don’t understand that the VAST majority of people don’t really know the difference between doo doo and apple butter when it comes to such words, or climate science, or oil depletion, or dozens of other critical issues.
But they aren’t so ill informed that they don’t know those same well educated and well intentioned liberals are making them the butts of mean hearted jokes when they call them “deplorables” and so forth, and they express their resentment, and get their revenge at the voting booth, even at their own expense. All to often they don’t have a clue that the libs are actually ( often enough ) trying to help EVERYBODY , as in for example putting in single payer health care, cleaning up the environment, etc.
This failure to understand is not due to stupidity. It’s due to a lack of VALID information. It’s NOT the fault of poor people that they don’t have university degrees.
In real life, hardly any of them ever had a serious shot at getting a good education, excepting the small percentage lucky enough to be born with lots of snappy neurons and raised to have powerful work ethics and lots of ambition.
I KNOW, I’m one of the lucky few born with an adequate supply of such neurons and to the right sort of parents. I grew up with hundreds who weren’t so lucky, and live among them again now that I’ve retired to the farm.
Genius is not what I’m referring to, I’m a LONG way from genius level, lol.
But you do need SOME brains to succeed INTELLECTUALLY. If high school is really tough for you in a typical public high school, well, reality dictates you will not likely succeed at anything other than varsity sports and basket weaving at a REAL university. ( But you could still learn a lot , including ways to make a decent living, at a community college.)
And this is not to say lots of VERY capable kids don’t get screwed over and learn next to nothing in public or even private schools.
One of my semi literate friends is a born engineer, a man who can dismantle a thirteen speed truck transmission down to the last screw, and see every detail about what’s wrong with it, and put it all back together a year later without consulting a manual of ANY sort. And he didn’t learn how to do this in a classroom, or by doing it every day for an extended period of time. He can just DO IT. He’s created some marvelous home built machinery that works BETTER than what’s available commercially. He makes parts at home that fix certain Ford truck transmissions that FORD dealers can’t fix, even with the help of Ford Motor Company. They oughta have him on their engineering trouble shooting crew.
If he had been lucky in having the right sort of parents to raise him to look up to going to college, he would probably be a top notch engineer today. But that’s life, and that’s our school system,and that’s the peer group ( his less capable friends ) who steered him wrong.
Sure, humans are a part of nature. What we do has impacted many aspects of other natural systems. There are now over 7.5 billion of us. Roughly 3 billion added just in my lifetime…
And you are either dumb as a pile of rocks or just another disingenious troll.
George pretty much nailed it in his description of your post.
Yep, glaciations are natural events. So is world wide mining of fossil fuels and burning them in pick-up trucks, ships and tractor trailers along with power generation plants. All natural. We just like to think we had something to do with the latter, but maybe it’s just our genes expressing themselves and we are just bio-bots forced to do their bidding.
Either way, we are involved, master or puppet the result is the same.
But don’t worry, raw nature is definitely in the act now.
How long are you allowed outside the village?
How long are you allowed outside the village?
Trouble is Village Idiots are a dime a dozen these days… Don’t know whatever happened to this one but maybe he is/was related to Dim Joe Aond.
Florida idiot plans to tie himself to post during Hurricane Irma
Posted By Colin Wolf on Sun, Sep 10, 2017 at 9:46 am
This morning, a Miami man told an NBC reporter that he plans to secure his shirtless body to a post outside while the Category 4 Hurricane Irma hits.
“I’m testing this out. I’m actually doing a stunt. It sounds crazy, but there’s a meaning behind it,” said the incredibly foolish Florida idiot. “I’m tying myself to a post down on Meridian for the duration of the hurricane. It’s all planned out with safety precautions and everything.”
Besides being shredded alive by broken glass and debris, or being swept away by the storm surge, what could possibly go wrong?
.
Well,now.
IF he did it, AND he survived without serious injury, and has ample documentation, which is altogether possible, he can sell his story for a fair sum to some magazine or news paper, and dumb but attractive women will have sex with him on the basis of this adventure, and men will be buying him drinks on it for the rest of his life.
The first time I’m free to do so, I’m going down Florida way and finding a reasonably safe place to experience such a storm first hand myself. But I won’t be tying myself to a post, naked, lol.
A little danger puts some spice in your life and lead in your pencil.
Any man who is so risk adverse he won’t at least consider doing such things as swimming in the sea where there are sharks, or hiking in the woods where there are bears, is less than a real man.
“That’s another example of climate change just being one big cycle of always happening natural events. Unless you want to say people 30,000 years ago had oversized SUVs and pickup trucks causing wind patterns to shift?”
Hey Joe, your village idiot performance comes very natural, respect. Is this one of your spare time occupations or are you actually earning money with it?
It’s not every October 23 or 24 that millions of Americans are swathed in temperatures above 100°F. This week has done just that, bringing some of the toastiest weather ever observed in the United States during late October, and more pre-Halloween heat is on the way. By far the most scorching weather has been in Southern California, although it’s also been exceptionally mild this month in settings as far-flung as Michigan, Florida, and New England.
A multi-day summer-like heat wave kicked into high gear on Monday and continued Tuesday along and well inland from the California coast, from Santa Barbara through Los Angeles to San Diego. Dozens of locations record highs for the date and all-time highs for this late in the year, and Santa Ana winds kept the temperatures amazingly warm throughout Monday night. In Orange County, the city of Fullerton soared to 107°F on Monday. According to WU weather historian Christopher Burt, this is likely the hottest single temperature recorded anywhere in the United States so late in the year. Even Death Valley has never recorded a temperature this high after October 16 in any year! For comparison, the national U.S. record high for November is 105°F, most recently at Tustin Irvine Ranch, California, in 1997.
Another impressive mark: downtown Los Angeles (the University of Southern California campus) hit 102°F. Prior to Monday, the downtown station had never topped 100°F after October 17, in records going all the way back to 1877. Incredibly, the USC downtown station got even hotter on Tuesday, reaching 103°F at 1 pm.
Hey GF, what are you going on about? Don’t you know it’s just weather. /sarc
Hi Islandboy, I said it was just the wind direction. Wasn’t really a climate post. I felt the wind directions had been left out of the discussion long enough and needed some equal time. 🙂
He’s probably right. I ‘m all for ev’s taking over, but it’s likely imo that it’s going to be a couple of decades before they displace more than maybe twenty percent of the cars on most roads road. Maybe a little sooner, maybe a LOT sooner, if the oil supply crashes, or batteries get to be a lot cheaper a lot quicker than hoped.
The new cars sold today, and for the next ten years, are mostly still going to be in running order fifteen to twenty five years from now, and an old cheap car that’s running ok and looks ok is a hell of a good deal compared to ANY new car, if you are short of money, or have sense enough to INVEST your money when it’s practical to do so.
And the best single opportunity most people who make a fairly decent living have to invest more is to buy fewer cars.
SOMETHING tells me a LOT of people are going to be short of money in coming times.
Remember the discussion about automation a couple of days back?
And guaranteed incomes?
Does anybody really think we collectively will be willing to pay enough in guaranteed income for the recipients of the same to buy new cars? Or to buy cars at ALL?
I’m not opposed to a guaranteed income policy , because I believe such will be NECESSARY at some time in the not so distant future.
We already have the rudiments of one in place now, in fragments, some of them BIG fragments, such as old age benefits, food stamps, rental assistance, public schools, public health clinics, and so forth.
So what I’m interested in, when I post comments critical of such schemes, is to provoke comments indicating how the shortcomings of these schemes can be fixed.
This is a big topic of discussion in Norway these days:
AMONG ‘GREEN’ ENERGY, HYDROPOWER IS THE MOST DANGEROUS
“Hydro projects are such a disaster for tropical rainforests that I don’t consider them ‘green’ energy at all,” added Laurance. Wind turbines and solar panels can also cause environmental harm, but on a much lower scale compared to hydropower. However, these industries have expanded enormously in the past decade…” Renewable energy has the potential to balance the conflict between our growing energy needs and environmental security,” said Gibson. “We must identify and mitigate the ecological impacts of renewable energy to ensure that its future is truly green.”
These guys need to keep the big picture in mind, take off the blinders and look at the effects of a crashed civilization if we don’t proceed with transistion fast enough. Better they spend their efforts and time on efficiency and system changes so we don’t need as much energy in the future.
We do the best we can in a world where some damage will occur no matter what we do, but if we do nothing the damage will be far worse.
From the good old days: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/energy-water-and-land#statement-16459
From the above report
I’m working at the moment so I won’t read the linked article till tonight but I couldn’t agree more. BTW large areas of flooded rainforest behind hydropower damns are huge producers of methane! Extreme ecological devastation is how I see them. This idiotic project in Brazil is a good example. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/brazil-belos-monte-dam-delay-court-indigenous-people
Yup, B.C. Hydro’s 1,100-megawatt Site C dam on the Peace River near Fort St. John, currently under construction, will flood more the 53 square kilometres of land, not just historic and aboriginal sites, but prime farmland and wildlife habitat so rich explorer Alexander Mackenzie wrote in 1793: “The country is so crowded with animals as to have the appearance, in some places, of a stall-yard, from the state of the ground, and the quantity of dung, which is scattered over it.”
From satellite views the area looks heavily compromised and overrun by humans. A natural point of view. Things have probably changed a lot since 1793.
Yup, it’s currently one of the richest agricultural areas in Canada and it’s about to become a large lake.
PEACE VALLEY’S “EXTRAORDINARY” FARMLAND COULD FEED A MILLION PEOPLE, AGROLOGISTS TELL SITE C DAM REVIEW
I don’t have any nearby large hydro-power and the big flood control dam about 70 miles away floods middle of nowhere forest area up three creeks so nobody cares. Over 4 decades ago a large farming valley and village was inundated a couple of hundred feet deep to provide water supply during drought times to a very densely populated region downstream.
My state lost much of it’s farms to development from the 1950’s into the 1990’s.
Probably a bad idea to inundate farmland to produce unneeded power.
How about wind and some pumped hydro on the nearby hills?
Must be several ways to get that 580 MW power if needed.
Reservoir Surfaces as Sources of Greenhouse Gases to the Atmosphere: A Global Estimate: Reservoirs are sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, and their surface areas have increased to the point where they should be included in global inventories of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases
Initial calculations indicate that, globally, these emissions may be equivalent to 7% of the global warming potential of other documented anthropogenic emissions of these gases. This percentage is similar to contributions from other currently inventoried sources. As a result, we argue that these fluxes should be included in greenhouse gas inventories by country and in models of global carbon cycling. https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/50/9/766/269391
Wind and solar power are almost entirely benign in comparison to hydro power.
Anybody who can’t see this instantly is rather poorly informed about both the environment and politics on the national and international scale.
The construction of hydro on the world’s remaining free running rivers is not only destroying or substantially altering vast territories, it’s also putting the livelihoods of hundreds of millions, maybe a couple of billion people at very high risk.
Such projects are underway or at least planned all thru Asia and South America, as well as Africa.
But not many more will be built in the developed western countries, because all the best sites have already been built.
There’s a very real possibility that the political repercussions of some of these giant water projects will result in both guerilla and open hot wars being fought….. and wars once started have a way of sometimes getting entirely out of hand, and spreading even so far as to entangle the great power countries that may have had little or nothing to do with the water project.
On the OTHER hand, there’s at least one great power that’s SERIOUSLY involved in financing and building these new projects. That power used to be the USA. Now it’s China, for the most part.
Experts generally have their heads up their asses when it comes to the REALLY BIG PICTURE. This head up the ass problem is why engineers will sign off on building nukes on flood plains or within reach of tsunamis, and why economists are unable to see the problems that can arise with free trade policies.
Free trade in principle is a wonderful thing. In practice it can lead to disastrous outcomes for tens of millions of people, and those tens of millions have ways of making their pain felt, as for instance electing Trump.
And the economists who sing it’s praises seldom have anything to say about it’s ill consequences for the losers, such as maybe the USA losing it’s leading spot in the world economic and military power pecking order to somebody who plays the game more skillfully than we do.
DO DRIVERLESS TRUCKS SIGNAL THE END OF AN AMERICAN ERA?
“A huge part of that portrait of Americana is the 3.5 million people who drive up and down that continent-spanning quilt of roads everyday: truck drivers. But this job – an indelible image of US culture – could be faced with big changes, as leaps in automation and heaps of startups scramble to make these big 16-wheeled vehicles humanless and self-driving.”
Personally I have some doubts about this. For one thing, a common sight in Canada, at least, is rows of trucks parked on pull-out lanes so the drivers can either install or remove tire chains.
Maybe the AI will decide it’s stupid to drive in those conditions and just sit tight until conditions improve. Or maybe there will be an auto chain feed/installer on the truck itself.
Robby the robot pops out of a door on the side of the tractor, grabs the chains, installs them, does a walk around to see if the truck is in good condition then pops back in. Robby also sells his services to other AI trucks that don’t have a Robby on board. Robby changes tires and does minor repairs too. Don’t be scared of Robby just because he looks like some giant bug with attachments. Robby is heavily armored against attack from out of work truckers.
As a former driver, I have plenty of doubts about this being a sure thing. I’ve been reading about this for awhile, and thinking about it quite a bit. Before swallowing it whole, I think it might do folks some good to sit at an off-ramp of one of the major truck routes (almost any interstate) and watch for a few hours. If an autonomous system is going to drive into a fuel-stop, it had better quickly learn to play dodge-the-other-trucks. Okay, so we keep a driver on board for these times, also to take over in case of an emergency. Then where is the cost savings? Also, I can’t imagine sitting behind the wheel for even an hour while the truck drives itself, then suddenly having to take over because Otto (auto?) sees a problem. The times when I was driving and had a near collision, blowout, or other emergency, all senses needed to be alert, not dozing and day-dreaming. Reaction time is often about a second, or it’s too late. That’s not gonna happen if Otto has been rocking me to sleep for awhile.
Trucking is a very competitive business. For these Otto trucks to get into the market, I think the major freight-haulers will have to be first. That’s UPS, FedEx, YRC, etc. And they only operate about 5% of the class 8 market. The other 95% are operated by smaller companies, with 20 or less trucks each. (It’s been a while since I researched this, so my numbers might be off, but not by much)
Without some real-world proof of cost-savings, the smaller companies won’t touch the new tech. I owned my own truck and operated it from 2004 till mid-2009, and I can’t imagine any one-or-two-truck operator spending big money on a new, unproven tech, when he’s barely making it now. And those 1 or 2-truck guys own the great majority of trucks on the road.
In regards to the above comment, re chains. Robo-the-chain-hanger is just more Buck Rogers shit. Ain’t gonna happen. What you think his price-tag would be? And no, Otto can’t just decide it’s too dangerous to go. The freight has to keep moving if possible, and it is possible in most snow conditions. That shit has to get to WallyWorld, and we gotta get them chickens on down the other side! Boston and New York gets bitchy if they don’t get their food, and trucker don’t get paid if he don’t deliver. If you’ve ever crossed the Rockies on major highways, maybe you’ve noticed the chain-up signs? That’s because chains are sometimes necessary, and you can get a pretty steep fine for ignoring the warning and then causing a fuck-up. There are some aut0-deployed chains in use now on lots of school-buses, but they’re nowhere near as effective as conventional chains, and I’m quite sure they don’t meet the requirement for the chain laws in the mountains.
Now, after having said all that, I’m sure Otto will be developed further and tried. I just don’t see him taking over much of the job. And yes I know he’s already driving in Utah or Nevada, forget which. But I don’t think he’s earning his check, just spending somebody else’s money at this point. Of course I don’t blame Swift (sure wish I’d finished training) for trying. After all they have plenty of trouble keeping all those half-trained drivers they turn loose, out of the medians, and dragging them out from under low overpasses.
I agree Stanley—–
Complexity is not your friend.
I would think there could be crews of people at the bottom of the mountains that put the chains on the truck tires during snow events and on the other side of the mountains to take them off. Tire chain problem solved.
Also the possibility of convoys of self-driving trucks with a lead driver that is a human.
I guess those ex-drivers could work a few weeks each winter throwing chains, then go back to Hardee’s to mop floors.
How does Otto navigate? If by the white lines, there’s gonna be a problem when snow covers the road. I don’t think GPS is accurate enough presently to do the job, and I’m pretty sure the roadways aren’t mapped accurately enough either. In case navigation is by while line, there will be plenty of work for ex-drivers in “painting weather” in the line-painting industry, but they need to be supervised closely, so they don’t paint Otto into a bridge abutment. But then, that would create more jobs in the construction industry, which then will be taken by robots too. Pardon my temporary flight of imagination, this is really a subject for serious discussion.
The convoy idea doesn’t work for me either. If we’re gonna let the Otto’s follow close enough for the lead driver to lead them, why not just use the already tried and true road-train system used down under? We already use doubles and triples on certain routes now, but they don’t work everywhere, and a 5 or 6 trailer road-train isn’t feasible much of anywhere in the US. If the Otto’s are spaced out far enough to be workable in any kind of traffic, then the lead driver isn’t going to do them much good. He’s got a pretty good job just staying off the top of the little bitch who just cut over in front of him while texting. So, sure, just let Otto drive that one too, he’s got all the proximity sensors and cameras.
Left turn in traffic?
Next point: If Otto hits the texting bitch, or swerves and brakes to avoid her, consequently hitting the ex-driver touching up the white line at the exit ramp, which insurance company is gonna pay?
Now, I do understand that the tech is being developed, and will be tried as soon as somebody can do it. But that doesn’t mean it will work in the real world. It’s gotta meet the dollars test. We have, or maybe I should say had, the tech to put a few men on the moon. Today, we can’t even take a bologna sandwich to our astronauts on the ISS. Instead, while some of our public-speaking leaders are bad-mouthing Russia, we send someone else quietly, hat-in-hand, to meekly beg them (said hat full of million-dollar bills) to do the job for us.
All things considered, or at least as many as my weak brain can consider, I’ve concluded that we so-called sapient beings have just about outsmarted ourselves, and will continue shitting in our nest till we can’t live in it any longer, ’cause we just do what humans do. Barring an unpredictable sudden great catastrophe, I expect we’ll just continue the slow, bumpy road downward that we started on a long time ago. Hope you and I are not a couple of bumps that Otto runs over on the way.
Enjoy the discussion.
Not only are autonomous trucks running about on highways in different parts of the world right now but yes the US delivers supplies to the space station.
The Dragon cargo ship is filled with more than 6,400 lbs. (2,900 kilograms) of supplies, science experiments and food – and yes, ice cream – for the space station’s Expedition 52 crew. SpaceX launched delivery mission Monday (Aug. 14) on a Falcon 9 rocket, which then returned its first stage to Earth in a smooth landing
BTW, I really don’t like the idea of autonomous cars and trucks but that is the way things are going and fast so I go with it. I don’t think it will help our predicaments much at all so look on it as a sideshow.
Now having a drone drop off some piece of hardware I forgot to get saves a lot of energy and time since I don’t have to drive to get it and the drone plus hardware is much smaller and lighter than my vehicle.
Well, off to get my forgotten hardware since the job has to get done today.
Hi Gonefishing,
One aspect to Autonomous trucks is they can slow down to save energy, the AV cars may allow more car pooling more easily which would reduce road congestion and save energy (in theory half the cars on the road and possibly more if some people ride 3 to a car or more. (Thinking TaaS, but cars could be privately owned and used in an Uber app type ride sharing scheme).
The autonomous trucks might just be a labor saving measure. Any Energy savings might be minimal.
Nothing we can’t do with our dumb cars and are doing already. Park and ride near me is full on weekdays. Not enough parking spaces, not enough park and rides.
Too many people.
Too much money in all the wrong places.
You’re right, we do haul supplies to ISS. I seldom watch news on TV and had forgotten about the Dragon. I should have used the hauling of astronauts for my rant, as I’ve been disappointed in NASA’s fuck-ups for several years now.
SpaceX is the best techno-entertainment around. Who needs NASA for space (which has been politically raped and tossed in the trash) when we have robo-rockets.
Rant all you want, Space-X and other private rocketeers will be hauling people soon.
Not that it makes one bit of difference while we waste our money on all the wrong things and one of the most powerful nations on earth has billionaires fighting over the last dregs of profits from fossil fuels. They don’t care if the US falls behind as long as they can keep squeezing blood out of us and keep the citizens distracted by lies and deception.
Make America A Dump Again.
Hi Dennis,
You’re likely dead on. There will be crews of men to put on chains as needed untill automated equipment can manage the job. Etc.
I am sick of hearing all the pissing and moaning about various employers not being able to find enough decent help.
There’s only ONE real reason any body can’t hire plenty of good help. They just don’t pay enough to attract the kind of employees they want. When the pay is right, the help is first class.
Now it’s easy for a businessman to be trapped in the position of having to use minimum wage help because that’s what his COMPETITORS pay, but I have been in literally dozens of fast food restaurants and retail stores and other such businesses.I see both competent and incompetent staff.
A man who wants competent cashiers is free to visit half a dozen local competitors for half an hour each, observing, and speak to a COMPETENT cashier for a few seconds, and have him come by his place to talk about another fifty cents or dollar an hour. He will recover that time, times five or ten, by spending less time breaking in a new employee.
I know at least two who have done so, and they’re TICKLED PINK with the results. They will never again advertise for a cashier.They’ll run a register themselves until they can hire one away. It takes selling only a few dollars more gross to cover the extra wages and then some. They MAKE MORE by paying more because good cashiers mean happier customers who visit more often.
I pay anywhere from a dollar to three dollars an hour more for casual help than the other farmers around here, working or retired, and find it very much to my advantage to do so. I can turn my back on my help, lol.
When seasonal work is slow, an extra dollar is enough, and I COULD pay even less, rather than more. When workers are in short supply seasonally, I have to pay an extra twenty five bucks or so to steal a good one away for a day.
Clock mysteriously photoshopped out of Tillerson photo
When mainland US cities like Houston and Miami get hit by hurricanes, they rely on mutual aid deals with out-of-state and Canadian power authorities to rebuild, as hundreds of skilled maintenance workers flood in and work for free to get their grid up and running; but debt-crushed Puerto Rico is paying $300 million to Whitefish Energy, a two-person company from Trump Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke’s hometown of Whitefish, Montana.
Zinke says the fact that he is pals with the owners of Whitefish Energy has nothing to do with the company winning the contract, and the fact that they used to employ Zinke’s son has nothing to do with it either.
Stinky Zinke!
Apparently this is just too smelly, even for the Repugs:
U.S. House panel seeks documents on Puerto Rico utility repair contract
“Specifically, the size and terms of the contract, as well as the circumstances surrounding the contract’s formation, raise questions regarding PREPA’s standard contract awarding procedures,” the chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, Rob Bishop, said in a letter to PREPA’s executive director, Ricardo Ramos.
Media reports that Whitefish Energy Holdings entered the contract with PREPA to fix the utility’s power grid raised questions among Democrats in Congress and others when it was disclosed that the Montana firm won the contract without a competitive bidding process.
The two-year-old company had only two full-time employees—
Stinky Zinke!
The A-feedback. Some climate scientists think in terms of feedbacks, but they usually look at natural feedbacks. There is a set of anthropogenic feedbacks that are constantly occurring.
Example one: Those increasing number of hot days in temperate and equatorial regions increase food wastage, increase the use of built air conditioning and increase the demand for adding air conditioning. All of those mean more energy and materials are used which in turn produces more CO2 into the atmosphere, making more hot days.
Example two: Larger and more powerful storms due to increased energy in ocean and atmosphere. Increased destruction means increased energy and materials use for rescue and rebuild efforts. That in turn puts more CO2 into the atmosphere, increasing storms.
Example three: Increased drought. Water distribution infrastructure has to be built and maintained. Fires cause temporary migrations and loss of infrastructure along with injuries and loss of life. All need increased energy and materials, which puts more CO2 in the atmosphere, increasing drought in that region.
You get the picture, until we get a carbon free energy system established any new activity or disaster will just feed the problem, which feeds the problem, until we crash or change.
Meanwhile,
ARE ANTARCTICA’S ICE SHEETS NEAR A CLIMATE TIPPING POINT?
“What we are increasingly seeing is that we have been on the conservative side in estimating sea level rise,” said study co-author Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, a climate physicist at Climate Analytics, a climate science and policy institute. “Parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to already be in substantial decline. If that continues, it’s not a matter of how much, but how fast sea level will rise.”
SHIPPING EXECUTIVE: ‘WE HAVE DELIBERATELY MISLED PUBLIC ON CLIMATE’
Cosco UK deputy general manager said industry lobbyists at the UN were ‘prostitutes employed by our racket to try and put one over on the general public’
CLIMATE CHANGE MIGHT BE WORSE THAN THOUGHT AFTER SCIENTISTS FIND MAJOR MISTAKE IN WATER TEMPERATURE READINGS
“The sea was much colder than previously thought, the study suggests, indicating that climate change is advancing at an unprecedented rate… The new research suggests that the oceans hundreds of millions of years ago were much cooler than we thought. If true, that means that the global warming we are currently undergoing is unparalleled within the last 100 million years, and far worse than we had previously calculated.”
It was already worse than thought, so what does this do? Make it WorserX2.
I think we are on thin ice now. 🙂
No, worser times X, X being the proverbial unknown.
Interesting how they discovered this just as Trump begins taking the public grants away.
“The research was conducted by French researchers from the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Sorbonne University and the University of Strasbourg, and Swiss researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL) and the University of Lausanne. It has just been published in Nature Communications.”
Nature?
Thats the major science publishing house on the planet, with the highest standards.
Wing Pawns prefer “Watt is my head doing up my ass?” as their source (I’m stupid, and proud of it!) .
It is obviously a plot to destroy capitalism, raise taxes, and create a one world government.
Oh, and make all that money publishing books!
See like I wrote in the last post, US climate scientists need to move to France. Look how welcoming they are to the agenda.
Van Vleet is troll posting non-responsive comments trying to re-frame a fact-based conversation into an ideological one.
So fuck ’em.
Stupid as fuck
CVV – You are evidently a man of judgment … no wait, I meant a pathetic, bigoted and willfully ignorant berk, but just for the fuck (oo, a bad word, you probably don’t like them – berk is another, very bad, by the way) what, in your worthless opinion, would have been the toll, in terms of death and destruction, had the three big hurricanes this year – you may have forgotten or never known their names so to remind they were Harvey, Irma and Nate – impacted with no forewarning at all because tossers like you had prevailed and there were no scientists around to develop the satellite imaging, climate and weather models, building methods and communication technology that allowed the hurricane paths in to be predicted in advance and people to be moved to safe shelters?
Trump is irrelevant! The US is but one country among 100s…
Ned … er I mean Harmon, Stop being such a shill. You’re just embarrassing yourself.
In case anyone wants to read the actual paper, it is open source … I’m sure the idiots commenting at the link Doug provided haven’t! And neither have our local trolls such as George Harmon. It never ceases to amaze me how deliberately ignorant so many people are.
People who have worked in tech support are probably familiar with the exclamation, RTFM! Generally uttered in extreme frustration, when faced with really stupid questions that are explained clearly in the manual. Well, before anyone makes stupid comments about any scientific paper, may I suggest that at the very least they, RTFP!
Burial-induced oxygen-isotope re-equilibration of fossil foraminifera explains ocean paleotemperature paradoxes
Abstract Oxygen-isotope compositions of fossilised planktonic and benthic foraminifera tests are used as proxies for surface- and deep-ocean paleotemperatures, providing a continuous benthic record for the past 115 Ma. However, visually imperceptible processes can alter these proxies during sediment burial. Here, we investigate the diffusion-controlled re-equilibration process with experiments exposing foraminifera tests to elevated pressures and temperatures in isotopically heavy artificial seawater (H218O), followed by scanning electron microscopy and quantitative NanoSIMS imaging: oxygen-isotope compositions changed heterogeneously at submicrometer length scales without any observable modifications of the test ultrastructures. In parallel, numerical modelling of diffusion during burial shows that oxygen-isotope re-equilibration of fossil foraminifera tests can cause significant overestimations of ocean paleotemperatures on a time scale of 107 years under natural conditions. Our results suggest that the late Cretaceous and Paleogene deep-ocean and high-latitude surface-ocean temperatures were significantly lower than is generally accepted, thereby explaining the paradox of the low equator-to-pole surface-ocean thermal gradient inferred for these periods.
Fred, you take all the fun out of stupidity.
Don’t worry, most will never change their minds. They will either not comprehend what they are reading or be waiting in the long line for a high degree of certainty on things rather than looking at the physical principles behind current trends and the world in general. Those confused and befuddled by uncertainty are the most amusing of the lot because they actually think they are being intelligent about the situation.
The rest are just latching onto things as a drowning man grabs a floating object.
Climate sensitivity to forcings is state and concentration dependent, which escapes most people. But those are non-linear and step-wise functions. Way too many conclusions are made because the analyst wants the world to act in smooth and easily predictable ways.
The human mind does not grasp time very well past a decade or two, which is why most people do not see that the changes right now are happening so fast that it is similar to the flip of a switch. Changes that typically take a thousand years are happening in a generation or two.
We are observing a state switch now and are highly absorbed by the small spark as the switch closes. 🙂
We are observing a state switch now and are highly absorbed by the small spark as the switch closes.
M’Kay…
.
Interesting toroidal field line flows.
Hi Doug,
It would seem that one interpretation is that Global ocean temperatures are much more stable than was previously believed (assuming the research is confirmed by others).
This might also result in another look at the atmospheric composition of this period, I think estimates of atmospheric CO2 were about 1000 ppm and solar output may have been lower. So either Earth system sensitivity is lower than the 4.5 C per doubling of CO2 (approximately the best estimate) or atmospheric CO2 may be estimated at too high a level during that period.
The article linked above suggests about 900 ppm of CO2 about 100 My BP which would suggest about a 7.6 C higher temperature than pre-industrial Holocene, before accounting for reduced solar output 100 My BP and assuming ESS of 4.5 C.
The paper suggests ocean temperatures were much lower, but it is not quantified. If average Ocean temperatures 100 million years BP were close to the Holocene average, this would imply a lower Earth system sensitivity than would a warmer average Ocean temperature.
Unfortunately, it is not clear if we have very good estimates of Global Ocean temperature of the past, the paper you referenced suggests past temperature estimates may need to be revised lower.
Hi Doug,
The paper linked below you may find interesting, you may have seen it already.
I am doubtful that there is actually as much fossil fuel that will be extracted as in the RCP8.5 (5000 Pg C) or Wink12k (12,000 Pg C) scenarios, the RCP4.5 scenario (about 1500 Pg C) is roughly similar to my medium fossil fuel scenarios which many here have suggested are far too optimistic (in other words most people believe fossil fuel output will be lower possibly like my “low” scenarios, roughly 1100 Pg C).
Of course the models could be incorrect and climate sensitivity may well be under estimated, but for most of the last 420 million years combined CO2 and solar forcing has been relatively stable, if we can manage to keep atmospheric CO2 under 600 ppm that stability may be maintained based on what we currently know about the past 400 million years or so.
Also 500 ppm or even 450 ppm of atmospheric CO2 would be safer, the lower the better.
No, I don’t dwell only on doom-and-gloom issues:
COLLIDING NEUTRON STARS COULD SETTLE COSMOLOGY’S BIGGEST CONTROVERSY
“To many cosmologists, the best thing about neutron-star mergers is that these events scream into space an otherwise close-kept secret of the universe. Scientists combined the gravitational and electromagnetic signals from the recently detected collision of two of these stars to determine, in a cleaner way than with other approaches, how fast the fabric of the universe is expanding, a much-contested number called the Hubble constant.”
Well yes, the so-called Hubble “constant” gives the rate at which the universe expands AT PRESENT and the Hubble “CONSTANT” is actually a time-dependant parameter with the name constant dating back to the time people believed the universe was static: that about sums up my knowledge of the matter.
Background dependent—
But we can’t see the universe AT PRESENT! We can see far into the past but never the present except right nearby.
In reality it is a measure of the red shift of light from galaxies. Red shift is assumed to indicate velocity away from us. Galaxies closer to us have less red shift and galaxies further away (further in the past) had larger red shifts. This was interpreted as an expanding universe. What it really defines is that red shift of galaxies is dependent upon time which is interpreted as distance. Since we cannot look at far away galaxies in present time we have no idea what they are doing now or if the relationship holds. One can only assume that over 13 billions of years or more the properties of the universe have stayed the same.
But even according to the deductions made by astronomers, it has not since space is expanding. Even the Hubble constant is probably a variable as the universe changed but from what we see the further away things appear, the faster they are moving away from us, until they cross the speed of light where we may not see them anymore. Or can we? https://phys.org/news/2015-10-galaxies-faster.html https://phys.org/news/2015-02-fast-universe.html
My question has been, where did the energy go?
A photon of light has the energy of E=hf which in terms of wavelength would be E= hc/w where w = wavelength. As the wavelength gets longer (redder) then E gets smaller with the extreme case the microwave background radiation. So where did the energy difference go? Or does conservation of energy not hold in an expanding universe.
The only answer I can come up with is that energy goes into the expansion of the universe.
Well, for one thing, ‘Everywhere’, is the center of the expanding universe, including right here… 😉
.
That’s right, it’s the biggest magic show in existence.
The solar system is now 2 km larger than when the earth first formed. Not much of a stretch, is it? 🙂
Lost in a fog of microwave background, astronomers started examining their own navels and found there was expansion there also.
Gone Fishing,
I don’t know about the Solar System changing size because of the expansion. What we see, as I recall, is that the farther away something is from us, on an intergalactic scale, the more rapidly the distance is increasing. Turn that around and the smaller the distance the smaller the rate of expansion and on the distance scale of a galaxy, maybe of a cluster of galaxies, gravity overcomes the expansion altogether. Our galaxy isn’t expanding as far as I know, nor is anything within it, but I expect the distance between our cluster of galaxies and the next cluster is increasing.
DougL? Can you weigh in?
I think the proper way to view it is that space itself is expanding, not the embedded objects which stay the same size. Of course that’s, on average. It’s well known that Andromeda is getting closer, due to local motions. But yes, even the planets are getting further apart.
I just wanted to point out that locally the effect of expansion is so small as to be immeasurable.
One of the limitations of the method is that we can only measure direct line of sight changes in red-shift. There is no way to measure transverse velocity.
I think it’s something to do with time becoming a function of velocity rather than an absolute value everywhere – it means the conservation laws don’t hold and don’t have to hold. I think in purely maths terms it’s to do with having to have differentiable field properties for there to be conservation of those properties, but don’t quote me on any of that.
Time and space are relative to observers frames of reference but it seems to go deeper than that.
Since my good buddy HB is feeling lazy or depressed or on vacation or something, I guess it falls to me to do his share of the work posting dirt on Trump in particular and the Republicans in general.
I will say THIS much for Trump, although it’s what’s referred to as a left handed compliment.
He’s a World Series level crook. HRC, comparatively, might have made the varsity at a smaller college if such colleges were to field teams specializing in unsavory business practices.
Ps I see now that somebody beat me to this, but I enjoy posting dirt on the R’s, and will leave it up.
“OldFailedAppleFarmer, you yap and carry on day after day. But on November 8th of last year, when it was time to make a binary choice for the future of the country. You punted. Like other morons in this country, you focused on personal attack ads and lost sight of policy.
You’re a rube”
Shoulda ran with Sanders. Better luck next time.
Personally I get a lot of laughs out of Trump. He’s pure comedy gold. And I don’t really care much about the fate of the nation anyway. Most interactions with my fellow countrymen leave me feeling that a famine is overdue. Time to cull the heard. But hey, I’m a misanthropist.
“I’m tired of this back-slappin’ “isn’t humanity neat” bullshit. We’re a virus with shoes.”
― Bill Hicks
“Aggressive marketing of painkillers led to a new generation of addicts and more fatal overdoses than car crashes and guns combined”
If self righteous liberals would STOP AND THINK a little, just every ONCE in a while, they could spend their indignant rage on issues that they could actually WIN, without pissing off half or more of the country attacking what the opposition half sees as the libs trying to take away some of their fundamental rights and telling them what to think and believe and how to live AND in the process running the risk of putting the R’s and politicians like Trump in charge of the country and two thirds of all state and local offices, nation wide.
Now it’s too much to expect the R party to do anything about this sort of catastrophe, excepting the WRONG thing, of course…… but there’s at least SOME hope the D’s might do something about it……. IF the Sanders wing of the party manages to gain power. Otherwise, Republican Lite Democrats who hang out mostly with with banksters, who are their real constituents these days, will continue to hypocritically preach a little about the welfare of the country, while looking after the welfare of the one percenters, just like the R’s.
Sollega’s injection molded FastRack 510 withstood 190 mph sustained (Category 5) winds of Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Maria. After surviving the Hurricane Irma and Maria, the solar panels were fully functional and 100% operational. The array was installed using Sollega’s patented FR510 ballasted/hybrid racking system. The fully adhered single ply membrane roof utilized a combination of heat weld mechanical anchors and ballast block.
Screenshot below this post. Link to NOAA web page below:
At the United States Army Garrison, Fort Buchanan there are four areas with solar PV arrays that appear very lightly damaged, as shown at the link below.
The link below is to a page showing an industrial area to the north east of Fort Buchanan where at least five buildings have solar arrays on their roofs which appear largely intact.
It would appear that Puerto Rico and other areas affected by hurricanes Irma and Maria present a treasure trove of case studies on the ability of renewable energy systems to withstand extreme wind situations. Some installations survived relatively intact while others experienced severe damage.
I would love to see ground truth photos of the badly damaged array. I suspect that it may have been supported on a poorly welded framework of thin steel sections rather than a solid rail system. I don’t doubt that a well welded strong steel structure would survive but I can’t help but think of one large roof top installation, near me, that is just thin rectangular section without even a cross brace. If you have seen the welds down by 90% plus of the welders around here you would get my point in an instant.
NAOM
I’m willing to bet that installed Fastrack510 is pretty expensive stuff, but it’s obviously well worth it if you get hit by a hurricane. And as the solar industry continues to expand, there will be generic or off patent racking available that will perform equally as well…. probably for a quarter or a third of the present low volume on patent cost.
The newsworthy aspect of the Fastrack510 mounted arrays is that they are part of a class of mounting systems described as non-penetrating, ballasted, mounting systems. This class of product typically consists of rectangular plastic or metal trays that, have mounting points for four panels, one at each corner of the tray. The following page shows a wide variety of this class of product with the installed price per watt of the mounting system in some cases.
Ballasted solar mounting systems are the fastest, cheapest, and easiest method for installing solar panels. These systems use their own weight and/or added weight to hold them down. If you have a relatively flat surface, you should consider a ballasted solar mount.
Benefits of ballasted solar mounting systems include:
No roof penetrations
Fast installation time, no specialized labor needed
Less interaction and coordination with roofer
Minimal tools, no machinery
Requirements for a ballasted solar mounting systems:
Flat Surface (around 5 degrees or less)
Surface must be structurally capable of holding the weight.
Apart from ballasted systems, there are systems that bond the mounts to the roof membrane and in the case of the two Sollega brand systems that survived the hurricanes, they used a combination of ballast and bonding.
Below is a picture of an example of a ballasted system fabricated from metal rather than the injection molded type made by Sollega.
This very interesting paper on the Great Basin and it’s climate relationship to changes in the Arctic uses speliothem analysis.
Arctic cryosphere and Milankovitch forcing of Great Basin paleoclimate Because anthropogenic warming is expected to reduce northern hemisphere snow and ice cover, continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases is likely to result in warming and drying over coming centuries that will amplify a warming trend that began ~2400 years ago.
The modern climate is characterized by rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and the Arctic is expected to rapidly transition to sea-ice-free summers51 in the 21st century as it likely did during the mid-Holocene52. Such a sea ice reduction will perturb wintertime atmospheric circulation in the Great Basin, leading to dynamic warming and drying of winters similar to that observed in the instrumental record45. Additionally, human-caused warming will amplify the warming trend that began 2400 years ago, with mean annual temperature increases at our study area of 3–4 °C by 2080 under a moderate (RCP 4.5) warming scenario53. Model results indicate Great Basin winter precipitation decreases of up to 50% as a result of a northward migration of the winter jet stream45. Considering that the peak warming interval in the Great Basin of the early to mid-Holocene ‘altithermal’4,54 was one of intensely hot and arid conditions and the region was only able to sustain sparse human populations, the future of Nevada climate looks to be one of increasing warmth and drought. Without aggressive action to decrease the rate of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, the future of the Great Basin is likely to be one of heating and drying.
Jk 😉 that’s just another old KotH reference for when someone tries convincing you something uninteresting is actually interesting. What’s a great basin though?
You are right, it’s not a lap dance or football players slamming into each other. Can’t be interesting.
But you are fine, I see nothing up top got strained by the effort of attempting to comprehend.
I may be the only the only former teacher who comments here who is redneck enough to tell it like it really is. I simply refuse to pretend I believe anything in particular, or SAY I believe it, or REFRAIN from saying it, for political reasons or cultural reasons.
Johnny may be a bot, or he may be a reasonably well informed troll, just having some fun while pushing his agenda.
But there’s also a real possibility that even if he lives smack in the middle of the Great Basin area, he doesn’t have a clue. There’s at least a hundred million plus adults of that sort here in the USA, and they wind up at sites like this one for various reasons, such as wondering what the price of diesel fuel may be next year, or if they can get a job building a solar farm, or simply at random from hitting links.
The breadth and depth of the ignorance of the typical man on the street is such that it’s incomprehensible to a person with some education who hangs out almost exclusively with other educated people.
Yesterday I offended one of my ancient relatives to the point he may not come to visit Daddy again for a while by pointing out to him using no uncertain terms that Trump is NOT a real Christian and that in actual fact he is a world class scum bag.
I might as well have said that Jesus ran whorehouses on the side for extra money. Now this man, as old as he is, is wise in the ways of the world, he’s NOT stupid at all. He rose from grade school school drop out to being the superintendent of maintenance of a pretty good sized mining company, the biggest one in this area, which is pretty far, about like making colonel in the army. There’s SOMETHING to be said for a Puritan work ethic and living according to the rules laid out in that old KJB, such as living modestly, and staying sober, etc.
( He can’t really be faulted on that,not many kids here managed to get to and thru high school back then, except the kids of the local elite. There wasn’t any local route bus, and they needed to go to work, and there was no obvious benefit to be had from going on to school, given that local employers paid high school grads the same money they paid dropouts. There’s an interesting parallel today, involving the question of whether it’s actually worth it to send a hell of a lot of kids to college to major in partying and English or art or whatever, but with the opportunity to go flipped from hard to easy. )
IGNORANCE is his problem, rather than a lack of brains. It’s extremely easy to believe what you want to believe, when you ignore any information coming from the opposition camp, and you perceive that the opposition is your enemy.
It’s easy to make fun of Christians and other religious people, but I would remind those who do that the vast majority of the wisest men who ever put their thoughts in writing, throughout history, up until after Darwin’s time, believed in a god or gods. There is ZERO reason an intelligent man who lacks any training in the sciences shouldn’t believe in a god.
Such a man believes whatever the people he looks up to as being his intellectual superiors and leaders believes, and if he doesn’t know any science, he has no more reason to trust scientists than he does preachers and politicians who talk to his liking.
So far as that goes, there is not much in the way of REAL reasons to believe there are no gods . A lack of evidence is not evidence of absence. There might be gods that don’t give a flying fuck about us and this planet. Gods wouldn’t necessarily even be aware that we EXIST. With an entire universe available for their edification and amusement, why should they keep an eye on one little rock orbiting one star in the backwaters of one out of billions of galaxies ?
Maybe some forms of life have evolved to the point that they ARE gods, from our perspective.Maybe they’ve shed most or all of their physical existence as biological entities and live now as a store and flow of information inside super powerful computers that can run entire industrial economies to reproduce new computers as needed as replacement homes. I don’t believe this sort of stuff, I believe it’s at least theoretically possible that it such things can be. A hell of a lot of real scientists, as opposed to an amateur such as yours truly, believe this is possible.
The REAL question is this one. Where did it all start? Talking about a Big Bang doesn’t really answer that question, because there must have been SOMETHING preceding the BB.
I conclude that we will never have an ultimate answer, because I don’t believe our brains are so constructed as to cope with this sort of problem, that no matter how far we pursue particle physics, etc, there will always be the question WHAT BEFORE THAT, where and how and from what does THIS ONE ORIGINATE?
OFM, get over it, he has a computer. He can type in “great basin” in Google and get the answer in a second. But he excluded himself from the conversation when he (or she, or it) found it uninteresting. So why put it out in the public view? Either troll, bot or just someone who likes to see himself talk.
As far as Christians go, I have never found one I can trust.
My old Daddy is a true blue Christian, and he would rather be horsewhipped than to tell a lie, or take advantage of anybody for any reason. I know more than a few others.
I generally have a LOT of respect for you, GF, but you are talking propaganda, or else displaying your own lack of intimate contact with any of the tens of millions of REAL Christians in this country, as opposed to television preachers and politicians, etc, who make a career out of EXPLOITING Christianity and Christians.
Wow, you really jumped off the ledge on that leap of “logic”.
I was raised Christian and pursued it for quite a while but one of the main reasons I don’t consider it is the way the Christians actually act. They do not practice what they preach.
The fundamentalists would turn on you in an instant since they follow higher authority only and know little about trust and loyalty.
Sounds like your dad was like mine, a great man.
Not saying there are not great moral and ethical ideas within the Christian religion, just saying that of the hundreds I have known well and the thousands I have worked around, I do not find them trustworthy. In fact they carry the cross and are some very poor examples of morals and ethics.
Edit: I also find Christians often show a high degree of intolerance for others.
Mac
Some powerful stuff in that comment.
Hope your relative chooses to continue visiting your father, foregoing disruptive (fruitless?) conversations along the way.
Robert Pirsig had an IQ measured over 200.
Bright guy with the highest of integrity.
He not only somewhat stumbled into a proof of the existence of that which we call god, he used his immense resources of rationality to do so.
Quite an accomplishment, many think.
Unfortunately, he continued along the path of attempting to understand the nature of that which we call god … leading to his insanity, institutionalization, and electroshock therapy. (Thus, validating somewhat, your concluding statement.
Putting aside this god stuff, for the moment, another huge achievement of Pirsig’s was pointing out how, exactly, Reason has assumed its self-appointed position at the apex in the hierarchy of human characteristics.
Clearly, in western cultures, anything supra, ir, non rational is, a priori, not worthy of serious consideration.
Rationality has firmly declared it so.
Good stuff, Mac, as always.
That was such an excellent discussion we just had on the paleo climate of the Great Basin, it’s relationship to the Arctic and the methods used to collect the data. Very fulfilling. Thanks.
OFM – there doesn’t have to have been something before this, one theory is explained here in terms of “virtual quantum particles” if I remember the name correctly:
A Universe from Nothing: Why There Is Something Rather than Nothing by Lawrence M. Krauss and Richard Dawkins
Really there only has to be the laws of probability.
George, my son insisted that I read that book. It was by Krauss, Dawkins was not a co-author. I bought the audible edition and listened to it. Then I bought the paperback and read it. It was a disappointment.
Krauss argues that the universe popped out of nothing because that “nothing” was unstable and that instability allowed the universe just to pop into existence. Krauss, in the book, completely ignored the fine-tuning problem. He did address it in several Youtube videos later but his explanation was the “multiverse” theory. That is “billions” of universes have popped into existence, therefore, it is likely that one of them had the laws, subatomic particles, and forces that allowed the formation of stars, allowed them to explode and form all the heavier elements that later evolved into second generation stars and planets and later life.
And that, the multiverse theory, is the only theory that any cosmologists have to explain the fine-tuning problem. But some cosmologists and physicists just ain’t buying it. Physicists Bruce Rosenblum and Fred Kuttner in their book “Quantum Enigma” had a lot to say on that matter. I have quoted a passage from the book below, bold mine.
But during that split second before our “familiar” quarks and electrons came into existence, the Big Bang had to be finely tuned to produce a universe in which we could live. Quite finely tuned! Theories vary. According to one, if the initial conditions of the universe were chosen randomly, there would be one chance in 10 to the 120th (that’s one with 120 zeros after it) that the universe would allow life. Cosmologist and consciousness theorist Roger Penrose has it vastly more unlikely: The exponent he suggests is 10 to the 123rd. (It’s hard to comprehend the meaning of a number that big.) By any such estimate, the chance that a livable universe like ours would be created is far less than the chance of randomly picking a particular single atom out of all atoms in the universe. Can you accept odds like that as a coincidence?
British cosmologists Roger Penrose is one of the must respected cosmologist in the world. Check out his Youtube videos if you doubt me. Yes, it may have been possible for something to pop out of nothing, but not something so finely tuned as the laws, particles, and conditions that came into existence in the first second of the big bang.
So what does one chance in however many mean when time doesn’t exist yet?
I think Dawkins wrote a foreword for it that got more publicity than the book itself, so I guess Amazon use him for advertising.
My question is, what existed before time, before the big bang, before god (whoever you might conceive him/her to be) or before any of that? The King James Bible starts in Genesis 1:1, “In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth.” Next question, who or what created God?
To me the big bang theory raises more questions than it answers, like what exactly is it that exploded and what happened to get “it” to the state where it exploded? I am content to stare into space, looking at what existed as far back as we can see. I think it is fun to unravel the mysteries of the universe insofar as we can but, I am also satisfied that some things are unknowable.
It is similar to how I concur with Ron that, interstellar travel by living organisms is just about impossible, unless such organisms can live for millions of years and even then, they would have to have unimaginably large fuel or energy stocks to accelerate and decelerate their craft between stops.
Maybe we should try and figure out how to understand dolphin language, show them what we know and ask them what they think? 😉
So what does one chance in however many mean when time doesn’t exist yet?
If 1, followed by 123 zeros universes existed, then time existed for all those universes. But saying that many universes existed and we were the one that…. well that is just totally absurd. That is billions of billions of times more than there are sub-atomic particles in the universe.
The point is George, that such fine tuning is beyond possible probability. You can’t get around such an improbability by saying that time did not yet exist. That is an out that no cosmologists or physicists have yet dared to use. They all know better. True, they posit the multiverse theory but none use such numbers of probability, or more correctly improbability. If they did then that would blow their theory right out of the water.
Actually the number of other possibilities is infinite. But that is a point I will make later.
One more very important point. This has not one goddamn thing to do with religion.
But is it “beyond possibility” only in our frame of reference – i.e. as we understand time and space? In out frame probability really goes with time – “the chance of something happening is xxx” has some kind of time frame implicit in it. Quantum theory has numbers all over the place with 10e-Y, where Y is very big, and relativity has 10eZ, where Z is very big also. We don’t have brains evolved that can even begin to understand things about three orders of magnitude either way of what we are familiar with. I seem to remember reading somewhere that there is no reason time couldn’t go backwards, in an entropic sense (and possibly we are the ones backwards), based on the maths – it just has to keep going the way it started.
I don’t know the answer by the way, but it’s a great philosophical area which is getting suppressed all the time by (I think) fear, or maybe just weariness, of the evangelical crowd. I do think that the fact that the universe has zero net energy (gravity wells = everything else), or at least that’s the latest research indication, means there was likely nothing before. Why? Maybe not multiverses even though they make great fiction, but the search goes on I think.
Hi George,
Maybe you’re right. But this is bullshit in my not altogether humble opinion.
I know a little probability theory, or used to. I’ve forgotten almost all the math I ever learned.
Virtual quantum particles aren’t going to just magically appear, unless the laws of conservation of mass and energy are overturned,or so sharply restated that they will have to be renamed at the very least. There must be some prevailing conditions of some sort for this to happen. The PRE existence of energy in some unknown form perhaps? Off mass in some unknown form?
So far as I know all this sort of stuff , at present, is no more and no less than informed speculation on the part of physicists, who have yet to produce any well accepted PROOF of it???? Don’t get me wrong, I’m all in favor of their work being well supported, because it might eventually lead to something important,maybe something of world class importance, a new world. And if it doesn’t, at least we will be in the same position as Edison when asked about his failure to invent a working electric light after eight thousand attempts, IIRC.
What he said was that we now know eight thousand things that WON’T work, lol.
Now of course our understanding of conservation of mass and energy may be flawed, and IS flawed, for all I know. I do think that’s the case.
THIS point proves my larger point. We circle around the truth, if there is such a thing as an ultimate truth, like coon dogs circling and criss crossing a patch of woods, having determined to their satisfaction that the coon is up one of the trees in that particular patch. Gradually scientists and coon dogs narrow down the possibilities and discover if not THE truth, a closer approximation of the truth.
There’s another layer to the onion, and anybody who REALLY believes otherwise , in my humble opinion, is guilty of hubris or something, hubris is not the right word exactly.
And if and when physicists come to understand this layer, there will be another inside it.
I may be wrong, but I’m convinced nobody can PROVE me wrong. Not now, anyway. And not likely anytime before I decompose.
And even if some physicist with a trillion dollar laboratory eventually produces a quantum particle from apparently nothing at all, I’m free to believe he’s just living high on the hog on grant money, lol. 😉
All the nose in the air smarter than religious people tell us there’s no NEED to believe in God or gods, because there is no evidence demonstrating His or HER or IT’s existence.
I agree.
We might as well just start with the existence of matter and energy as the existence of God, or vice versa, since we don’t REALLY know if there’s a God or not. It’s no more ridiculous to presume the existence of a god than it is to presume the existence of a universe just coming into existence out of the socalled blue, except that we can SEE the universe.
An absence of evidence is not necessarily good evidence of absence.
Personally as a practical matter I’m a hard core Darwinist, and an atheist, but when I get down to splitting hairs, I’m an agnostic. I’m pretty sure there is no God or gods, but there’s no way I can be mathematically one hundred percent certain of that.
The physicists who posit something from nothing can’t ever be absolutely sure they’re right.
It’s not my idea and I’m not right or wrong it’s just something people are working on. I was just disagreeing with you saying there “had to be something before”. That doesn’t seem evident to me at all.
It’s seems to be an area where quantum physics meets relativity so it’s no wonder they are having problems.
It never enters my head that there may be a god, and hasn’t for as long as I can remember, so I can’t really follow some of your musings and internal discussions on the matter. I can appreciate he/she/it (or rather “religion” in one way or another) is important to a lot of people, though I think much of the time they don’t actually know, or care much, what they are really believing in. I don’t really care until they start getting evangelical and holier than though about it – and really that happens nowhere in the western world that I have ever visited except rural USA and the internet.
Yeah, that’s the problem George. Everyone associates some kind of intelligence or consciousness in the creation of the universe, with religion. Religion has to stick its ugly head into every possible opening. That is totally unnecessary and a fraud. It has absolutely nothing to do with religion.
That is the very reason that the fine tuning problem is countered with that very stupid multiverse theory. The cosmologists are so damn afraid of religion that any stupid theory is more appealing to them than admitting that it could not happen just by chance.
I wrote the above without really reading this – but I agree, except I think it could happen just by chance.
I think it could happen just by chance.
By chance? Cosmologist Sir Roger Penrose says the odds of it happening just by chance is one in 10 to the 123rd power. The number of atoms in the universe is 10 to the 82nd power. Soooooo?????
Oh, one more thing, no physicists or cosmologists denies that the universe is very finely tuned. They just say that so many universes have popped into existence that one of them was bound to have the perfect conditions that allowed stars and life to evolve.
10 to the 123rd power. Now that is one hell of a lot of universes to pop int existence.
But he might be wrong.
George, no cosmologist or physicists deny that the universe is very finely tuned. Do you think they are all wrong.
The only debate is about the odds. Is it 10 to the 123rd power or 10 to the 120th power? Or what are the odds?
I will tell you what I think the odds are, they are infinite. How many possible subatomic particles could possibly pop into existence that are not electrons? How many possible subatomic particles could possibly pop into existence that are not up quarks with exactly 2/3 the charge of an electron but in the opposite direction? How many subatomic particles could possibly pop into existence that are not down quarks with exactly 1/3 the charge of the electron? How many charges could possibly pop into existence that are not gravity or the magnetic force or the strong or weak nuclear force? The number in every case is infinite! And we have not even touched the cosmological constant, or dark matter, or dark energy, all which had to just pop into existence in just the right amount and with the right force.
No George, the odds against of all these things happening, in just the right amount with just the right force is infinite! 10 to the 123rd power is just way, way, too small.
The formation of unstable particles would revert to photons again, while stable ones would be retained. It’s how the universe works, randomness within distributions. The selection process was due to stable particles no longer participating (the precipitate). All other particles dissipated.
Voila, matter forms in the universe of very intense photons and a high degree of variability.
Penrose’s is not the only theory – as you said above. It’s pretty early days in an extremely complicated field so saying things like “impossible” is a bit premature to me. Penrose has a few other ideas that haven’t been accepted in the main stream, he’s almost 90 I think and emeritus, and that’s the sort of thing you should be doing then – i.e. throwing out outre ideas and seeing what sticks.
The problem with gods is that invoking gods to solve issues of existence and complexity don’t actually help with those issues at all, because you end up having to ask yourself who or what created the gods.
So you have a concept you don’t have any evidence for, and which explains nothing, so why bother?
It’s turtles all the way down!!
Why bother? Because the universe is so unbelievably fine tuned that it demands an explanation. Ask why the multiverse theory was ever dreamed up. Because they bothered, because the fine tuning problem demanded an explanation. They all bothered. And to George, Penrose is not the only physicists or cosmologist that says the universe is very finely tuned. They all say that. Most of them use the multiverse theory to try to explain it. A few do not.
The multiverse theory: The theory that trillions and trillions of universes all just popped out of nothing. Therefore it could be expected that one of them would be so finely tuned like our universe.
Hi OFM,
We assume the laws of conservation of mass and energy are always true and always have been.
Either the universe has always existed or it hasn’t, we do not really know.
Perhaps the universe existed in some other state prior to the big bang, but an underlying assumption in all the analyses is that mass and energy are conserved because that is what we seem to observe. Though to sustain this assumption we need to invent dark matter and dark energy which make up 96% of the theoretical matter in the universe in order to match observation with theory.
There is much that is not understood, that much is plain.
Did your mother have any children that lived?
You are right, it is about as interesting as the scientific methods used to come to this conclusion…
Burial-induced oxygen-isotope re-equilibration of fossil foraminifera explains ocean paleotemperature paradoxes
Our results suggest that the late Cretaceous and Paleogene deep-ocean and high-latitude surface-ocean temperatures were significantly lower than is generally accepted, thereby explaining the paradox of the low equator-to-pole surface-ocean thermal gradient inferred for these periods.
‘Interesting’ is in the mind of the interested, the key word being mind apparently most people tend to waste theirs, despite the suggestion that doing so is a terrible thing…
.
If someone comments on something doesn’t that mean they must find it interesting on some level – maybe not the expected one though, so to say it’s uninteresting is … what exactly – at least an oxymoron I think?
(ps I thought the pun would come out a bit better when I started)
You just need a good graphic to underscore the pun…
.
Yeah, but it was supposed to be a pun on oxygen as well.
Well, even though it isn’t exactly O2 that might still work for passing lots of gas, (pun intended) 😉
Was just at Summer Lake in Oregon yesterday, and fly fishing the Chewaucan River that actually drains into Lake Abert, another large, shallow, alkali lake in Lake County, Oregon.
9 miles of river to myself, not another person. Redband Trout, wild and willing.
So how much does it cost an out of state person to get the necessary permits, and transportation from the nearest large town or city and rent a room or camp out on the Chewaucan for a week, if you do it on the cheap?
One of my fondest dreams has been to fish some of the remaining more or less pristine western rivers, but I’m thinking now my old Daddy may live so long I won’t be physically able to do so when he finally departs this old vale of tears.
They say timing is everything. Our timing could not be better (or worse) since the natural cooling of the Earth is minimal in this time period due to the near circular character of orbit. So the next glaciation might not have happened anyway and we have just taken the icing off the cake by dumping a lot of CO2 at the latest NH minimum insolation event (which was not very minimal compared to others in the past). Just so happens NH insolation will be on the rise during the higher CO2 period, just to top off things.
An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead? The small amplitude of future
insolation variations is exceptional.
One of the few past
analogs (13) occurred at about
400,000 years before the present,
overlapping part of MIS-
11. Then and now, very low eccentricity
values coincided
with the minima of the
400,000-year eccentricity cycle.
Eccentricity will reach almost
zero within the next
25,000 years, damping the
variations of precession considerably.
Simulations with a two-dimensional
climate model (14),
forced with insolation and CO2
variations over the next
100,000 years, provide an insight
into the possible consequences
of this rare phenomenon.
Most CO2 scenarios
(15) led to an exceptionally
long interglacial from 5000
years before the present to
50,000 years from now
On Friday, Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos became the richest person in the world.
Worth more than $90 billion, according to Forbes, he took the top spot from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, thanks to recent jumps in the value of Amazon stock after an impressive quarterly financial report.
But Bezos hasn’t always been the billionaire titan he is today. He was born the son of a 16-year-old mom and deadbeat dad. And he didn’t set out to be the CEO of an e-commerce juggernaut.
I love cats.
They make great gloves.
A global food crisis may be less than a decade away
Anybody who truly knows anything about the natural world and politics and the way things happen by chance must understand that there could be a global food crisis NEXT year.
The odds of any given staple crop failing in any given year, over a very large area, are pretty low, for reasons other than drought, probably no more than one or two percent.
But we don’t know for sure, because with more and more people traveling more and more, we could find ourselves dealing with a new superbug spread willy nilly on somebody’s shoes or luggage ornamental plant, all over a continent, maybe the world, a super bug that LOVES wheat, or corn, or rice, or soybeans, any day. It could take years to breed and produce replacement cultivars. Maybe too many years, considering the world is effectively a powder key already.
If you had watched the video you would realize she was not talking about disease or bugs. Her company has been looking at production increases versus demand increases. Production increases are lagging demand increases, ergo, a shortfall of food. No act of god involved.
Paging Thomas Malthus.
Some jet stream/blocking patterns could throw a wrench in the works on very short notice.
On the weather depends the harvest.
On the harvest depends everything.
Certainly we expect changes in the future, some severe dependent upon region. However, without any changes in production due to climate or other natural phenomenon, the global food output ends up short as we stay on population trajectory.
I understand. I have watched several videos and read countless articles to this effect, or that come to similar conclusions, the only real difference being the time frame.
My personal professional opinion is that so long as farmers globally can put their hands on the necessary inputs, namely fuel, machinery, fertilizer, pesticides, shipping containers ( boxes and bags), and trucks, etc, there’s not much risk of a major food shortfall globally within the next ten years, unless the climate heats up REALLY fast, or war or something of that nature interferes. There are still forests, and still wetlands, and even highway medians, to be cleared and put to the plow, and while the so called Green Revolution has slowed dramatically, it has not yet peaked.
SO LONG as we don’t have a new super bug problem pop up in a staple crop, I mean.
I give you the example of the American chestnut tree, which was once THE linchpin species in our eastern hardwood forests, and our most valuable single species by far, in terms of both food and lumber production.It lasted outdoors without preservatives fifty years or longer!!!!!!!! It’s been about century now , and we are just now able to start replacing that tree with something equivalent, one with a built in resistance to the blight due to breeding it in.
And the people who OUGHT to be able to best understand this sort of problem, namely well intentioned environmental activists, are mostly at the forefront of the mob trying to lynch the scientists who are trying to raise the genetic engineering baby up into a strong child, so to speak.
( Now as Fred occasionally points out, it wouldn’t bother HIM at all if they took their pitchforks to the owners and managers of the giant corporations trying and so far succeeding in monopolizing this technology, lol. It should be in the public domain, and tightly regulated, but not regulated out of existence. )
Regional shortfalls are already happening and may reach catastrophic levels. I have posted numerous comments about people being forced to migrate in some cases due to climate problems, and whether the ones of us with plenty of food will be willing to donate it on the grand scale with little or no likelihood of ever being paid for it.
WILL Yankees give up their meat heavy diet, and some of their dogs and cats, in order to supply hundreds of millions of people with something to eat, by diverting our grain production from feeding cows, hogs, and chickens and eating bread, potatoes and beans???
I don’t know. I don’t eat much meat at all anymore, understanding that it’s not good for me, in terms of my personal health, to eat a lot of meat. On the other hand, most of the people I know would break out their pitchforks and torches if they couldn’t easily buy a LOT more meat than is good for them, lol. Several times more, in fact. And more potato chips and ice cream and soda pop, and cookies and cakes and all the other junk that fills up so many stores these days.
All that stuff is slow poison. Too much meat is slow poison, even when you are still growing up.More than a few kids only twenty one years old these days already have cardiovascular problems due to their diets.
And I have occasionally pointed out that the large carry over of staple grains we used to have from one year to the next no longer exist. A major failure across a wide area of any staple crop could result in some REAL troubles, and not just for the people who live there.
Suppose the DUST BOWL repeats ? We Yankees could continue to eat ok, but if something equivalent happens in Asia……..
Looks like we have a large amount of food insecurity already in the world.
Hey Bob! What was the fourth word in your post? Hint: Global. You should get out more. It’s easy to suppose that you’re standing in the center of all that matters.
I’m pretty sure Bob Frisky won’t be splitting the atom, or passing grade 10 math for that matter.
Bob Frisky, your chosen charts and your interpretation seems to indicate that winter will last approximately ten days, which actually does agree with a medium term forecast that has a relative heat wave over a lot of the US next Sunday.
Astronomers have had the means to detect such visitors for only the last couple of decades or so, and there might actually be one passing thru once every decade or century.
It’s conceivable that one of them came from a place with life,and hit this Earth, and seeded life here. It’s my under standing that cosmic collisions can throw bits and pieces of planets into space without necessarily heating them to the point that living organisms, or viruses, are destroyed.
“WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A federal grand jury on Friday approved the first charges in the investigation into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, a source briefed on the matter told Reuters.”
“Special counsel Robert Mueller, a former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, is investigating whether Trump campaign officials colluded with those Russian efforts.”
“”If the Special Counsel finds it necessary and appropriate, the Special Counsel is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising from the investigation of these matters,” Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein said in a May 17 letter appointing Mueller.”
Now old HB will never acknowledge that the FBI was simply doing its job investigating HRC and her awesomely dangerous homebrew email system, etc, and real trumpsters will never admit the FBI and the special prosecutor are doing their jobs NOW in investigating the Trump administration.
I’m now cautiously hopeful that Mueller or some ambitious journalist will uncover enough dirt on Trump and his buddies that they can be forced out of office. That’s still a long shot, but it’s not such a long shot now that the D’s will can recapture the Senate.
Whether that happens may depend on how many D Lite and middle of the road types with tons of money in the stock market vote R in the midterms, based on the markets. Not too many real working class people, and that’s MOST of us, have much if anything in the stock market.
“It is not my job to sit down and read peer-reviewed papers because I simply haven’t got the time…”
James Delingpole, 2011 BBC interview with
Royal Society president Sir Paul Nurse
“I feel a bit of an imposter talking about the science. I’m not a scientist, you may be aware. I read English Literature.”
James Delingpole
HYPERTHERMALS Around 50m years ago, Earth was struck by a series of short-term phases of rapid global warming, known collectively as “hyperthermals”.
“I think there are important things to learn from all kinds of time periods but certainly the PETM stands out in terms of rate of warming. Although, carbon input during the PETM was likely still 10 times as slow as in the modern [era], this is still the closest we can get in the geological record. Therefore, the PETM is often considered a nice analogue, although we all realise the analogy isn’t perfect.”
Anybody else notice that Trump is starting to resemble the Gestapo chap from Raiders of the Lost Ark when his face started melting. Trumps skin seems to be going the same way. I don’t like the chap at all but he seems to be noticeably aging faster than any of the recent ones, all of whom went pretty quick, and he had a head start on them all as well. I’m not sure I’d wish that on anyone.
I’m not all that concerned about his skin, it’s his rapidly deteriorating brain cells that I’m really worried about.
The Little Bighorn Basin in Wyoming turns out to be an important area for understanding past climate change. New understanding to past global warming events: Hyperthermal events may be triggered by warming
A series of global warming events called hyperthermals that occurred more than 50 million years ago had a similar origin to a much larger hyperthermal of the period, the Pelaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), new research has found. The findings, published in Nature Geoscience online on April 1, 2012, represent a breakthrough in understanding the major “burp” of carbon, equivalent to burning the entire reservoir of fossil fuels on Earth, that occurred during the PETM.
The findings, published in Nature Geoscience online on April 1, 2012, represent a breakthrough in understanding the major “burp” of carbon, equivalent to burning the entire reservoir of fossil fuels on Earth, that occurred during the PETM.
COOL! Um, maybe just interesting science. Well admittedly not quite as interesting as troglodytes butting heads and giving each other concussions on a football field.
BUT there were no troglodytes back 50 mya driving around in SUVs and PUs with plastic bull testicles hanging from their trailer hitches, which means that troglodytes can’t possibly be having any effect on climate in the present, right?
Hmm, now what do you suppose would happen if it turns out troglodytes burning carbon are having a major impact on the climate and suddenly for some reason there is a major carbon burp on top of that? I guess ‘God’ wouldn’t let that happen, eh?
Hmm, maybe that’s what God’s plan really is…
I guess we live in interesting times, enjoy it while it lasts.
God is busy right now but his assistant manager Mother Nature is quite willing and able to take care of the situation.
Pesky species messing with atmosphere?
Response: MN messes more with the atmosphere.
Result: No more pesky species problems.
It’s crude but so is fumigating a house.
It’s crude but so is fumigating a house.
Yeah, down here where I live it tends to kill all the cockroaches and the geckos. I once suggested to a neighbor who had a roach problem in his house, that instead of fumigating, he could release a couple hundred scorpions which would leave on their own and move to the neighbor’s house once they ran out of food at his. He went with the fumigation. Go figure! I guess I’ll never really understand my fellow humans… 😉
Most of them are wimps.
I remember being out in the Saguaro National Park at night. While my guided camera outfit was taking long exposure photos of Halley’s comet, I was flipping over rocks trying to find scorpions. Didn’t find any.
Had to be satisfied finding Horseshoe Crabs along the Jersey coast. They look plenty weird.
Early 21st century communications device
Found in: Miami Basin
25.7713° N, 80.1919° W
Depth found: 28 meters
Date found: August 27, 3149
Found by: Danika Ruiz Ocovská
Note: Pseudo Trilobites abound at this location
.
Many people do not know that pill bugs are edible. Not only are they edible but from my experience some of them do in fact taste similar to shrimp. Any bug should be cooked before eaten, but some people eat them raw. They make a great sauce, or they can be added to soup. There are a lot of other ways to cook them including, mixed with, dough, egg, or rice.
Health Benefits
The high protein content of bugs is a known benefit, but there is one more known benefit to eating these little guys. There shells are high in calcium carbonate which is the primary component used in antacids, so pill bugs may be helpful for heartburn and calming upset stomachs.
I just didn’t want you to step on those cute little creatures.
Go catch some fish or scorpions.
Rapid Acidification of the Ocean During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) has been attributed to the
rapid release of È2000 109 metric tons of carbon in the form of methane. In
theory, oxidation and ocean absorption of this carbon should have lowered
deep-sea pH, thereby triggering a rapid (G10,000-year) shoaling of the calcite
compensation depth (CCD), followed by gradual recovery. Here we present
geochemical data from five new South Atlantic deep-sea sections that
constrain the timing and extent of massive sea-floor carbonate dissolution
coincident with the PETM. The sections, from between 2.7 and 4.8 kilometers
water depth, are marked by a prominent clay layer, the character of which
indicates that the CCD shoaled rapidly (G10,000 years) by more than 2
kilometers and recovered gradually (9100,000 years). These findings indicate
that a large mass of carbon (d2000 109 metric tons of carbon) dissolved in
the ocean at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary and that permanent sequestration
of this carbon occurred through silicate weathering feedback.
Unless humans find viable ways to control climate, changes like that are essentially permanent from a human point of view. Minimum orbital eccentricity is reached in year 29,000, reducing orbital effects. About 120,000 years from now orbital eccentricity will have surpassed the current value and head for a doubling. Considering the r-squared law that is a quadrupling of the energy changes we see now. So not long after the atmosphere has returned to “normal” the orbital parameters do their work. 🙂
It is quite enjoyable at times to observe a true believer ecoevangelical. They so desperately want the earth to be destroyed just so they can tell everybody “I told you so.” Yet earth continues to be uncooperative, although that’s to be expected when the chosen science is primarily ideologically driven above anything else.
And what exactly is the ideology that is driving, “the chosen science” pray tell?
Are we to wait until weather and temperature records are eclipsing all of those in recorded human history, before we try and figure out what the hell is happening and why?
Last question. Did you learn any science past grade school or even in grade school that qualifies you to comment on the subject?
The ideology is liberalism and socialism wrapped up into a neat package masquerading as environmental activism. Here are a couple of choice quotes from back in the 1980’s when the movement started to take shape.
From 1989, Stephen Schneider was interviewed in Discover Magazine: “We have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have.…Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”
From 1988, Democratic Senator Timothy Wirth (of Colorado) in committee testimony: “We’ve got to…try to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong…we will be doing the right thing anyway in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”
This shows both academic dishonesty as well as disregard for the scientific method. If one claims to be practicing science under such conditions, their science is simply illegitimate. Period.
My own credentials are of little relevance here, however I did study several semesters of college level meteorology when I was getting my Bachelor’s Degree.
Please enlighten me as to how this liberal, socialist ideology is “driving” the science outside of almost every jurisdiction outside of the US and Australia? (Note that in the US, where the most money is being spent to discredit the science, most climate scientists agree with the global consensus.)
You pick two quotes and use them to invalidate the consensus of an entire field of study?
You sir are living in a bubble, a very special kind of special!
Let me just remind regulars here and any casual passers by, who’s ideas Steven Haner is propagating in this forum, the happy billionaires pictured below!
Well, the first question is whether the quotes are correct!
A quick internet search only found a circular series of denier references.
They cannot see, they refuse to listen, thought is limited, all the destruction and death that has and is occurring is nothing to them. They are not really alive, though they be animated.
Just another case of pre-zombification. Right in time for the Halloween Parade. Bring them on.
As climate change predictions come true those that made them will be accused by deniers of moral weakness for wanting it. Ned is your typical American variety fucking moron.
The increase in anti-climate chatter from the FF monkeys is a sign they are very worried. A case of high anxiety that their profits will fall and the world won’t go their way.
Exceptional warmth for the time of year has developed across most of Alaska, putting a halt on freeze-up and even melting away the early snow cover in places in the past couple of days. Most of the state has seen temperatures above freezing, including parts of the North Slope today; 37°F was observed on the Sag River at 69°N this afternoon.
The problem with words is they need scalers. If I say “that price changed” or “the weather changed” those are really low level and expected changes. If I say “a nuclear missile is on the way to Los Angeles” that is a much higher level and would be really bad for those in that region.
Now we could use bold or bigger text but that would not really cover YOU CHANGED THE ATMOSPHERE!!!!.
Since the atmosphere controls 70 percent of the energy into and out of earth system, changing it is a major global change AFFECTING EVERYTHING AND EVERYONE. To make the words big enough to fit the actual magnitude of change, they would fill several screens. It should also flash bright red and a virtual hand should come out of the screen and slap the viewer repeatedly.
So there is no way to express the magnitude of certain changes on the written page.
And just saying “really really big” doesn’t work because the pres uses that a lot.
Study finds ancient oceans were much colder than previously thought, implying global warming is unprecedented within the last 100 million years:
If the oceans were much colder than previously thought, say 3 C colder than previous estimates (they don’t give a number so I am guessing here), wouldn’t that suggest that the Global temperatures were also colder in the past (maybe by 3 C or more as the land temperature tends to change more than global temperature). That would suggest that despite significant changes in forcing from changes in radiative forcing due to solar output and greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere over the past 100 million years, that global temperature has been relatively stable (relative to previous estimates).
That would suggest that Earth System sensitivity estimates might be too high rather than too low. Unless there are new estimates of atmospheric greenhouse gas levels in light of this new research.
That’s great news about the coal burning reduction.
Nonlinear climatic sensitivity to greenhouse gases over past 4 glacial/interglacial cycles
Here, we combine a new sea surface temperature record spanning the last 360,000 years from the southern Western Pacific Warm Pool with records from five previous studies in the equatorial Pacific to document the nonlinear relationship between climatic sensitivity and GHG levels over the past four glacial/interglacial cycles. The sensitivity of the responses to GHG concentrations rises dramatically by a factor of 2–4 at atmospheric CO2 levels of >220 ppm
The sensitivity of the responses to GHG concentrations rises dramatically by a factor of 2–4 at atmospheric CO2 levels of >220 ppm
I haven’t read the paper yet but hoping the sensitivity increase doesn’t turn out to be logarithmic. 400 ppm plus, yikes! So far not much that I’ve seen relating to the climate system has turned out to be linear…
As an undergraduate student (Engineering Physics) we were always being reminded that it was normal for things to become interesting when they became nonlinear. Why should it be any different with climate? For that matter, why would climate change, with so many variables involved, be a linear process? Of course idiots like Javier will call it alarmism, a rather unscientific word, but so be it. BTW, the paper is very interesting.
I think I read somewhere that of all the CO2 added to the atmosphere by man from 1750 to 2010 by burning fossil fuel 25% of that CO2 total was added between 2000 and 2010. If that is true then it seems to me that climate change will start moving along quite quickly in the near future.
Well one thing for sure, we can’t rely on silicate weathering to get us out of this situation. Takes way too long.
Fred, just examine the Keeling curve, it’s not a straight line, it’s a curve with an upward inflection. The other thing is that that a number of feedbacks do not depend on CO2 level, though the temperature rise they cause will feed more CO2 into the atmosphere.
When several feedbacks become self-sustaining then the interactions will go fully non-linear. I suspect the snow-ice albedo changes will accelerate, thus snowballing the other feedbacks. Reduction of atmospheric pollution might cause a few other feedbacks to go full self-sustaining.
Wind turbines are a way to tap into some of this extra atmospheric heat energy, now we need to ocean temperature differentials and find a few other ways to use the extra natural heating to drive our civilization around the corner. Instead of over the cliff.
Feedback, don’t forget wildfires. In the US alone:
“Extensive studies have found that large forest fires in the western US have been occurring nearly five times more often since the 1970s and 80s. Such fires are burning more than six times the land area as before, and lasting almost five times longer.”
Yes, I mentioned forest fires in my 8:58 AM comment. A major problem worldwide, some natural, some on purpose for agricultural process.
Plants are absorbing 30 percent more CO2 than a century ago, but if they burn no sequestration occurs.
Hi Gone fishing,
Looking at the Vostok ice core data it would seem this may be the effect of melting ice sheets and changes in Albedo. From LGM to HCO ESS is about 7 using the temperature estimate of Shakun et al 2012 and ice core estimates of atmospheric CO2. The ESS of a warmer Earth with much smaller ice sheets (one tenth the size today in Northern hemisphere relative to LGM) as probably about half that level maybe 3.5 C.
Global Climate models account for changing ice sheets and snow cover, but do not estimate changes in permafrost very well, some of the Earth System models may attempt to do so.
“The ESS of a warmer Earth with much smaller ice sheets (one tenth the size today in Northern hemisphere relative to LGM) as probably about half that level maybe 3.5 C.”
You are discounting the actual modern cryosphere which has 50 million square km of snow in the northern hemisphere alone. Sure that is fall/winter/spring seasonal but has an albedo effect of about 1/4 of that area or about -4 watts/m2. The other variable ice cover is the Arctic Ocean which controls about 2 watts/m2. The static (at least on the very short term) ice sheets are about 18 million km2. Greenland is problematic, as is the Arctic Ocean , since so much of it has summer melt on the surface changing snow character as well as forming melt ponds.
But of course the most variable is the snow cover, which has not only been regressing but is disappearing earlier in the spring (time of high insolation). A 2C rise should remove most of the snow cover and a 3C rise will eventually remove just about all the ice and snow.
Hope you have been enjoying the warm weather.
The key thing about these changes, especially changes in the Arctic Ocean is not temperature so much as the dramatic changes to the ecosystem and world weather. We need to start looking past the temperature and at the other changes that are actually more important.
As has been seen in some parts of the ocean, ecosystems can die quickly. The plants and small animals are a basement system that feed and oxygenate the world. Every reduction there is a reduction further up the chain.
Changing temperatures cause movement of insects and weed growth which causes more toxic pesticides/herbicides and more ecological collapse.
According to this link, wind farms built in the USA in 2015 have a capacity factor in excess of forty two percent.
I don’t know if this can go much higher, considering it’s an average and some of the very best spots are taken already. Does anybody have a figure for the best performing wind farm in the USA?
We are now entering the time when one wind turbine can power 8000 to 10,000 homes.
Sounds like the wind industry is changing so fast that one can only assume large gains in the near future.
As far as using wind in less optimum areas such as the southeast US, NREL studies have shown this to be practical with size and design changes.
Hillary Clinton blames others for last year’s electoral defeat, never recognizing that many Americans — both Democrats and Republicans — found her public record appalling, as Dennis J Bernstein discusses with John Pilger.
Hillary doesn’t seem to be a “Graceful in Defeat” type does she?.
Nor is she graceful in victory either, as is evidenced by her corruption and warmongering while Secretary of State. She’s a psychopath, as is the majority of America’s leadership class.
I prefer Trump. He’s pure comedy gold.
The Orange Kahuna will surely put this train wreck in the ditch faster.
HRC would of just been a slower death (maybe, her stint as Sectary of State was pretty lethal).
Honduras now has the highest murder rate on Earth, and HRC’s bloody hands are all over that one.
Well she did campaign on an act of war with Russia. If her gig at State is any clue she seems to know how to create trainwrecks very well. I think her and Trump are much the same, not unlike how prison guards and prisoners are, they just took different paths in life.
At least Trump provides some comic relief on the road to collapse.
Some of These 101 Prescription Drugs – Made in Puerto Rico Before Hurricane Maria – May Soon Be Unavailable
Grandpa was probably a denier anyway, he can do without them?
We should just send some EVs to PR and everything will be ok. sarc/
“… a nation in which 87 percent of eighteen- to twenty-four year olds (according to a 2002 National Geographic Society/Roper Poll survey) cannot locate Iran or Iraq on a world map and 11 percent cannot locate the United States (!) is not merely “intellectually sluggish.” It would be more accurate to call it moronic, capable of being fooled into believing anything …”
Trump is probably the most accurate representative of the population in quite some time. He’s as incompetent as the electorate he represents. The People™ get the government they deserve.
Quiz: Can We Guess Your Education Level From The U.S. States You Know?
You probably know where YOUR state is, and the states surrounding it, but when you get farther away…do you know what all those states are? If you do, you’re probably pretty smart – and we bet we can guess your education level from how well you know a U.S. map. See how we do! Let’s Play
It’s all about Clapper telling it like it is, and it’s even worse than even HB thinks it is.
On the other hand, I had and lost a politico link a while ago about dealings the Obama administration had in selling out our uranium industry to the Russians, and the down in the sewer part HRC played in that as Secretary of State, with the Russians involved donating millions and millions to her family slush fund, as well as paying Bill half a million to bullshit around with a microphone for a few minutes, lol.
It’ll be a cold day in hell before HB posts anything critical of his princess.
“Before the Obama administration approved a controversial deal in 2010 giving Moscow control of a large swath of American uranium, the FBI had gathered substantial evidence that Russian nuclear industry officials were engaged in bribery, kickbacks, extortion and money laundering designed to grow Vladimir Putin’s atomic energy business inside the United States, according to government documents and interviews.”
“That’s when conservative author Peter Schweitzer and The New York Times documented how Bill Clinton collected hundreds of thousands of dollars in Russian speaking fees and his charitable foundation collected millions in donations from parties interested in the deal while Hillary Clinton presided on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.”
The casual observer can’t avoid dragging Hillary into this. It appears that, among other things, the Clinton Foundation received over a $100 million in “charitable donations” from various Russian companies and individuals over the years. Gosh, they’re a big-hearted people! Maybe it’s all the vodka they guzzle. No doubt, the newly-converted Russian capitalists were yearning to support “impact entrepreneurs” who are creating “new enterprises to generate both social impact and financial returns” by addressing market gaps in developing countries, or to “strengthen the capacity of people in the United States and throughout the world to meet the challenges of global interdependence” — as the Clinton Foundation described their activities.
More likely they wanted to grease their access to the sure-thing It’s-My-Turn Madam President. Except then she went and lost the election… all because of Russian meddling.
-JHK
Hi Hightrekker,
I totally agree with your ten sixteen am qoute except for the very last little bit.
“More likely they wanted to grease their access to the sure-thing It’s-My-Turn Madam President. Except then she went and lost the election… all because of Russian meddling.”
It should read ” PARTLY because of Russian meddling.”
She had in it the bag, but threw it away out of arrogance and contempt for the people who would ordinarily have supported her, otherwise.
Making secret speeches at a quarter of a million per pop and taking those millions and hanging out with banksters when she SHOULD have been campaigning among the TRUE base of the D party cost here the election.
Lets not forget that gays, lesbians, any and all possible gender combinations, minorities, immigrants, and most the rest of us,excepting only the rather well to do, the top fifth or less of us, all share the ECONOMIC problem…. which above all else determines which way the middle of the road voter votes on election day.
If she had had brains enough to listen to Bill, she would be president today, but she surrounded herself with yes boys and yes girls who stroked her ego and told here what she wanted to know.
Even so, she almost won, in VERY large part imo, because so many voters hated Trumps guts and were afraid of him. The flip side of that is that the D’s were dumb enough to run her even as she was hated and feared by a very substantial portion of the electorate who didn’t know any better than to vote for Trump.
I was VERY surprised when she lost, and had to pay up on some bets I placed on her winning. But by about ten pm, it was clear the polls were all mostly biased in her favor, or just simply wrong, and that Trump was going to be stronger than expected in the Rust Belt. It turned out he was strong enough by the proverbial hair. I knew he was going to take the southern states that were supposedly maybe going to go for HRC, because I’m a southerner and have a pretty good idea how to handicap polling numbers in southern states.
Maybe I didn’t make it clear enough in my long reply to Nick upthread about his confusion in respect to what liberals SAY.
When liberals talk about abortions, which they call by the code words right to choose, they fail to realize, as political creatures, as voters and as campaign managers, that tens of millions of conservative and religious people see abortion as MURDER, and pure and simple. So they use the code words right to life. . So they will NEVER vote D for this reason alone.
And when a liberal gets all hot and bothered, to the extent he gets on the street to protest his lack of privacy, because the government is recording every phone call he makes , number, time of day, duration, etc, well that same liberal fails to understand that when he talks about taking away peoples guns, he’s talking about coming into those people’s HOMES and CONFISCATING things they hold EVEN MORE DEAR than he does his privacy. Many of these people believe that their own safety and security depend on having a gun in their home. I’m one of them. I’ve used a gun to defend myself from somebody threatening to beat me senseless with a mattock, maybe killing me, and I’ve used it to escort thieves off my property, etc.
And the fact that thieves and rapists and the sort of people who are willing to invade and rob KNOW that my sort of people are ARMED means we are only targeted at rather long intervals, compared to other people they know are NOT.
And anybody who thinks the police will protect them , in an emergency, is a goddamned hopeless fool, except when they are lucky enough that there’s a cop REALLY close by who is otherwise not tied up.
The ONE time in my life I REALLY wanted the police, living in a tough neighborhood in Richmond, and called them, they took half an hour to show up, although there were patrol cars within ten blocks with two cops in them. By that time somebody ……That was ME .. was on the way to the hospital, because I suffered what would now be called a home invasion while having a party…… and there was no gun in the house because at that time my hot young Big Apple Jewish sweet pea begged me not to have one. This house was one my business associates and I bought to renovate in a rough but gentrifying neighborhood, within easy walking distance of VCU. Houses there are worth a LOT of money now, but very little back then.
After that…… well, she changed her mind, and I started teaching her the fundamentals. Previously, she SORT of understood… because she lost her known extended European family to the Nazis in WWII…. even though she never actually met any of them, being born later. But she knew her grandmother, as I did, and SHE knew some of them personally and a lot of them via family records.
Now I’m not stupid enough to argue that a man with a pistol or shotgun is going to defend himself successfully from a dozen soldiers….. but if a couple of those soldiers got killed in the process, here and there, or lost family members of THEIR own, well…….. that sort of thing results in publicity, and the people whose sons those soldiers were, to maybe doing some thinking about WHY their sons were hauling people off wholesale without trials, etc. It leads people who are going along to get along to think a lot sooner about the consequences of going along.
Now I have wandered off from my point as usual. THIS Is my point. Every body who WANTS the country disarmed is already on board. The D’s DO NOT NEED TO PANDER to this segment of the electorate.
Anytime they emphasize it, and the MORE they emphasize it, the more they are reminding millions and millions of people who believe they have a FUNDAMENTAL right to be armed, and NEED arms, to vote against them, and reminding them in VERY clear terms. They’re reminding them in no uncertain terms to vote R.
And who, pray tell, is in control of the government in this country??
Is this sort of thing so HARD to understand?
Can a person with a university education possibly be so stupid he can’t get it, or at least THINK about it, give it some real thought and consideration????
I fear the answer is that indeed he can be that stupid.
Rube aka KGB, the guy who past up a “hot” second wife to sleep on the couch with his gun on the wall.
Not into reformist politics–
Pepsi, Pepsi Lite
To bad for the dims, they had it in the bag with Sanders.
Oh well— at least Cheeto Jesus is waking the sleepers up a bit.
Even the baffled herd knows something is wrong now, they just don’t quite know what.
“Trump Campaign Adviser Lied To FBI About Russian ‘Dirt’
George Papadopoulos has been cooperating with the probe of Russian meddling in the election.
WASHINGTON ― A foreign policy adviser to President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has pleaded guilty to a charge of lying to FBI agents about “dirt” he was offered on Hillary Clinton.
George Papadopoulos, 30, pleaded guilty on Oct. 5, but the case wasn’t unsealed until Monday, when two other Trump associates were indicted by a federal grand jury.
Papadopoulos reached a plea deal with prosecutors, and has since been cooperating with special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election.”
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster(OFM), I see your still spewing your Russian Republican Facebook fake news about HRC. You have no shame.
Your a Rube (a country bumpkin, hick, redneck, ‘an unsophisticated countryman in Canadian and US slang)
He’s sophisticated enough to correctly spell ‘passed’ and ‘you’re’ at least.
Hi HB,
I am surprised that you have demonstrated a new low in either reading comprehension or thinking a minute before posting a comment about me being a trump / R guy.
That link is all about one of Trump’s flunkies pleading guilty, cutting a deal, to stay out of jail.
And since then, Mueller has indicted a couple of OTHER Trump associates and charged them with some pretty heavy duty stuff, lol, namely money laundering, which carries a sentence up to twenty years.
I’m thinking there’s a good possibility now that some other people are going to find it necessary to turn on Trump to stay out of jail themselves.
Things are LOOKING UP.
But that still doesn’t mean that HRC didn’t accept oh up around a hundred million or so in donations to her family slush fund from parties ranging from shady to out right desperados while serving as secretary of state, now, does it??
I’m one of the people who like to believe that whatever questionable things you do eventually come back to bite you on the ass, as often as not.
It’s clear now that the Russians were hoping to see Trump elected, and pulled some dirty tricks to help him along. I have never denied this, but I’m smart enough to withhold judgement in such cases, until I see some actual proof, rather than just non specific statements from various officials.
We had ample documentation of HRC’s shortcomings, stupidity, and arguable crimes well before the election. We knew Trump was a scumbag, at least most of us did, but we didn’t have PROOF as such, in terms of political chicanery, etc, because he wasn’t a politician… PREVIOUSLY.
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster says – “around a hundred million or so in donations to her family slush fund”
The Clinton Foundation (founded in 1997 as the William J. Clinton Foundation),[2] and from 2013 to 2015, briefly renamed the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation[3]) is a non-profit organization under section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. tax code. It was established by former President of the United States Bill Clinton with the stated mission to “strengthen the capacity of people in the United States and throughout the world to meet the challenges of global interdependence.”[4] Its offices are located in New York City and Little Rock, Arkansas.
Through 2016 the foundation had raised an estimated $2 billion from U.S. corporations, foreign governments and corporations, political donors, and various other groups and individuals.[5] The acceptance of funds from wealthy donors has been a source of controversy.[5][6] The foundation “has won accolades from philanthropy experts and has drawn bipartisan support”.[5] Charitable grants are not a major focus of the Clinton Foundation, which instead uses most of its money to carry out its own humanitarian programs.[7]
This foundation is a public organization to which anyone may donate and is distinct from the Clinton Family Foundation, a private organization for personal Clinton family philanthropy.
Philanthropy (from Greek φιλανθρωπία) means etymologically, the love of humanity, in the sense of caring and nourishing, it involves both the benefactor in their identifying and exercising their values, and the beneficiary in their receipt and benefit from the service or goods provided.
The Fake News KGB Rube continues
FWIW, I’ll say what I’ve said before: character issues are a political tactic. A manipulation. A sideshow. A distraction. Policy positions and competence are what matter, in that order.
It was always perfectly clear that Hillary’s policy positions were overall dramatically better (even if sometimes the differences on particular things were not as large as we’d like, as she moved to the center and pursued conservative votes and money), and also perfectly clear that she had administrative competence, if not charisma. Trump’s positions were either unclear or very bad, and his competence was questionable.
I’m glad I didn’t have to choose between a Trump with good policy positions and a competent politician with bad policy positions – that would have been uncomfortable, but at the end of the day our problems with Trump are less about character & personality, and more about policy: he wants to help the powerful and comfortable, and hurt those who are already disadvantaged.
The latest analysis of observations from the WMO GAW Programme shows that globally averaged surface mole fractions(2) calculated from this in situ network for CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2016, with CO2 at 403.3 ± 0.1 ppm, CH4 at 1 853 ± 2 ppb(3) and N2O at 328.9 ± 0.1 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 145%, 257% and 122% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels. The record increase of 3.3 ppm in CO2 from 2015 to 2016 was larger than the previous record increase, observed from 2012 to 2013, and the average growth rate over the last decade. The El Niño event in 2015/2016 contributed to the increased growth rate through complex two-way interactions between climate change and the carbon cycle. The increase of CH4 from 2015 to 2016 was slightly smaller than that observed from 2014 to 2015, but larger than the average over the last decade. The increase of N2O from 2015 to 2016 was also slightly smaller than that observed from 2014 to 2015 and the average growth rate over the past 10 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) [3, 4] shows that from 1990 to 2016, radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) increased by 40%, with CO2 accounting for about 80% of this increase.
This was discussed on BBC Radio news this morning. The WMO looks at CO2 data only after all plant activity has absorbed as much as possible, not averages or peaks. The commentator said that El Nino had caused droughts which reduced plant uptake of CO2. That is a 30% change from the 2005 to 2014 average and would be even greater if we looked at the minima as the WMO does. Seems like an extreme change to just attribute to drought. More likely some came from burning forests and the ocean in addition to the land source.
With plants using 30 percent more CO2 now globally than they did 100 years ago, I think the whole drought El Nino case is very weak. Plants are already removing CO2 at much higher rates and some regional droughts should barely dent that.
We really have to face the fact that natural sources of CO2 are taking on a high degree of significance, obliterating any slowing or reducing of output by humans.
And speaking of non-linear changes from today’s BBC report:
“Rapidly increasing atmospheric levels of CO2 and other gases have the potential, according to the study to initiate unpredictable changes in the climate system… leading to severe ecological and economic disruptions.”
“Another concern in the report is the continuing, mysterious rise of methane levels in the atmosphere, which were also larger than the average over the past ten years. Prof Nisbet says there is a fear of a vicious cycle, where methane drives up temperatures which in turn releases more methane from natural sources.”
“The rapid increase in methane since 2007, especially in 2014, 2015, and 2016, is different. This was not expected in the Paris agreement. Methane growth is strongest in the tropics and sub-tropics. The carbon isotopes in the methane show that growth is not being driven by fossil fuels. We do not understand why methane is rising. It may be a climate change feedback. It is very worrying.”
Yes, we may be behind the eight-ball at this point, or this may be the last chance with extreme effort to head off the worst of the effects of global warming.
Problem is that things are just getting noticeable now and don’t look too scary yet. But then again all accelerating situations start out slowly.
I’ve heard sea level rise in the tropics is flooding areas with lots of vegetation and that the methane rise is from that.
I keep watching Barrow Alaska and the methane is definately spiking now. But last year there was a huge CO2 spike in Barrow (hit 420ppm) and all around the Arctic. It sure looks like that CO2 spike they are talking about was from the Arctic, but they must have some other data making them blame the tropics.
Most of the methane coming out of the artic permafrost and/or hydrates likely gets eaten by bacteria and CO2 gets released, but eventually that process will saturate and methane will be released also – like we are seeing this year.
We really have to face the fact that natural sources of CO2 are taking on a high degree of significance -and methane, that came across as a growing concern in the report and associated interviews. It’s growing and it’s not coming from fossil fuels, but they aren’t sure where – not the Arctic (yet) despite the recent years’ concerns with hydrates and permafrost met – more the tropics and sub-tropics, probably agriculture related. Possibly the start of a runaway feedback.
Sorry Doug – commented before reading yours.
I don’t know about runaway feedbacks but it looks like the high end of the IPCC temperature rise may be too low. Doubt if we will reach Venus status but could reach Jurassic temps where even the polar regions have a temperate climate. Mammals may not want to be south of 40N. Ocean depth temps of 17C. Sub arctic ocean surface at 20C or higher.
Palm trees in Ohio anyone?
Research the Milankovic results which show how the present warming is part of a 100,000 year cycle of natural warming and cooling on our planet earth. Afterward…stop worrying, and lay down for a pleasant little nap.
I think you Milankovitch cycles
Thanks for coming out short bus. Maybe start your journey to personal transformation by learning where Florida is on a world map; and then tackle bigger subjects, like grade 10 math.
I am not worrying. Scientists are just very curious about the world.
I guess you don’t read my comments on the orbital cycles so are just in continuous nap mode. What brought you out of your coma? Hello? Hello? Oh well, back to the land of nod again, eh?
Since no one has said it yet, and I really did enjoy this response from another thread:
Fuck off, moron!
And to extend, don’t come to a forum full of educated scientists and try to start an argument using a grade-school level analysis that fails spectacularly in the face of the slightest interrogation.
He hit the nail on the head and did not know it. While describing some future civilization we find on another planet, it hit me. He is describing us. The broadcast was done in 1970, but never did Shep realize that his musings would accidently describe a portion of our society, maybe a large portion, today. “In fact they haven’t solved a doggone thing. If anything it’s even worse than our world.” I really shouldn’t say he never realized, he lived until 2016 so was probably very aware of this miasma of society but no longer commented on it. Probably just laughed in a sardonic fashion.
Start at about 20 minutes to 25 minutes on the audio track. https://archive.org/details/JeanShepherd1970/1970_Space_Credit_Card.mp3
So all you plugged in, heads in the smartphone, overscheduled and underpaid people out there; enjoy your TV shows tonight. Watching those fellow human beings trying to dance and sing is vital to your life. Tolerate no interruptions to this vital time. Please don’t turn to the other people and talk to them, they will not know what to do and might think you just went crazy. Plus they will be highly irritated at the interruption for that electronic show is so much more important than you are.
Hail to the wage slaves, they feed and house themselves. Yippee, the pinnacle of civilization.
But for just a moment, a short period, I too will sink into the depths of media entertainment. My traditional Halloween movie will be viewed. No it’s not any of those common horror films you can name, you would never guess it in a million years. I will give you a hint or two. The title starts with the word Horror. Made in the 1970’s.
Social hint to all those guys out there. Never get between a woman and her favorite TV show (you know Dancing for the Nebulae, American Idle, Project Runaway or something like that). Especially never make joking comments about it, not even mild ones. Best to just sit there quietly or go do something important like trimming your fingernails. If they ask you if you think the girls on TV are beautiful and you didn’t bring your mine detector, exploder device, well the term “going down in flames” may describe what happens next.
🙂
Horror Express?
No, thanks for participating.
It was not made in the US.
Ancient mosses suggest Canada’s Baffin Island is the hottest it’s been in 45,000 years
More liberal lies!
It was cold in the beer cooler at the Monster Truck Rally!
Another point on which D’s in general and environmentalists in particular could use a little help in extracting their heads from their backsides, on the odd chance that they might actually be interested in WINNING some elections.
Now most liberals don’t actually say very much very often, individually, about hunters and fishermen, but there are more than ENOUGH who do, who equate hunting in particular with subhuman behavior and a sin against nature and man, or WORSE.
And that sort tend to run their mouths about other hot buttons, very very often, in the same breath, that really and truly piss off conservative minded people.
Anybody who can’t understand this must be DENSE as lead, to say the least, or else TOTALLY in the dark in terms of understanding what millions of hunters think and believe.
It would be GOOD SENSE if such liberals would tone down the anti hunting rhetoric a little, especially when they equate it with murder in the ghetto,so to speak. It’s not firing up the real base, it turns on some D’s for sure, but THAT tranche of D’s are ON BOARD already, and won’t even consider voting R .
This sort of talk infuriates people like most of my neighbors, virtually all of whom of the male variety have been hunting at least a few times over the course of their lives, and consider it the very finest of outdoor activities and a god given right.
It’s MORE than enough to guarantee that a lot of them vote R on the basis of this one issue alone.
AND it’s worth mentioning that vast acreages, in total, of privately held land, are managed to a greater or lesser extent so as to protect and enhance wildlife populations, so that the owners and their friends have places to hunt. Take that away, and you have taken away a fair sized chunk of these land owners incentive to maintain their property this way. You’ve just moved them incrementally from conservationist to developer.
I am personally managing my own place to the maximum extent I can afford to do so as a wildlife hot spot. If I couldn’t hunt, and invite my friends to hunt, I would be FAR more to just farm it and log it, end to end, and corner to corner, or subdivide it and sell the lots for more houses for more “damnyankees ” to move out of town up north and into the woods down this way.
Now whether the D party as such would actually try to outlaw hunting now or anytime soon is a debatable question. I believe the PARTY as an organization has MORE sense.
What the D party would actually do is NOT relevant, within this context. What’s relevant, in this context, the context of winning electionsn, is what hunters and rural landowners think and believe.
Hey lib’s, ya wanna win more elections ?? I’m not saying you should necessarily adopt all my suggestions. But you sure as hell out to try to step back, and back a little farther, in terms of understanding and evaluating how the middle of the road and conservative public sees you, until it starts becoming clear to you that conservatives REALLY DON’T like you for some VERY real reasons.
The Trumps and the Koch brothers have a lot of people fooled, that’s VERY true.
But a LOT of people don’t like you because some of you go out of your way to make sure they don’t like you.
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster(OFM),
So tonight I flip the channel over to FoxNews bullshiter Hannity. There he was telling his viewers the real Russian sandal is HRC & Uranium for a hundred million. Rube, you may not watch tv, but the redneck conservative sea you live in do. The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Hi HB, I will give you credit when it’s due, and at least you didn’t deny that HRC took that hundred million, lol. Good for you.
Now my contention all along has been that NEITHER HRC nor Trump should be in a position of power and influence in our country, because neither of them is morally fit.
My particular argument is always about how D’s can win elections. The first thing they need to do is bust up the Clinton Machine that owns and operates the levers of power inside the party, and wise up and never again nominate a candidate who is thoroughly reviled and distrusted by roughly about half the electorate.
It’s true the R’s nominated somebody equally distrusted, by those in the know, but the R base didn’t really know anything about Trump, because he wasn’t a career politician. And the R Party as such did everything it could to get rid of him, rather than nominate him.
HRC was too stupid to run on change, she ran on BAU, as represented by the Obama administration, and the R party was so stupid it did the same thing that HRC did which cost her the election…….. she ignored the REAL D party base.
The R establishment ignored the real R party base , in terms of the actual NUMBERS of voters in that base, taking them for granted, to the point that the Tea Party became possible and happened, the same way HRC ignored and took the real D base for granted. The R base was so SICK of business as usual that it sucessfully rebelled in favor of Trump.
The Sanders camp failed to succeed in nominating Sanders, but it’s alive and well and will hopefully be taking over the levers of the D party within the next few years.
R’s are sometimes just as wooden headed as D’s.
Trumpster(OFM) says – “HRC was too stupid to run on change, she ran on BAU, as represented by the Obama administration”
That’s right, the majority of Democrats supported the continuation of the Obama Administration of protecting the environment, a woman’s right to choose, a persons right to marry who they love, a nuclear free Iran, not starting unnecessary wars and a strong growing economy.
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster(OFM) is a FoxNews Rube
Hi HB, for a long time, you denied reading my comments, but it’s obvious from your replies that you were reading them. Now it appears you are just briefly skimming looking for things to criticize.
Have you figured out yet that I have consistently, except when jerking YOUR chain, posted political comments to the effect that the environment is THE ISSUE, and that the D’s are WAY AHEAD of the R’s on environmental issues ?
I’m likely posting more mud on the R’s than any other two or three forum members combined. But since I’m interested in telling it straight, rather than as a partisan, above all else, when it comes to commenting on politics, I tell it like it is when it comes to HRC’s shortcomings as well as Trumps and the R party’s.
The incontestable fact that HRC accepted a hundred million in stinky money while S of State deserves publicity just as surely as Trump’s dirty laundry deserves publicity.
I’m not a partisan, like you. I tell it like I believe it IS, rather than cherry picking what I have to say.
Hi Rube,
Did Hillary Clinton Tell FBI’s Mueller to Deliver Uranium to Russians in 2009 ‘Secret Tarmac Meeting’?
Hyperpartisan web sites mischaracterized a State Department cable alerting the U.S. Embassy in Russia of a transfer of criminal evidence obtained in a sting operation.
CLAIM
Then-Secretary of State Clinton ordered then-FBI Director Robert Mueller to deliver highly enriched uranium to the Russians in a secret plane-side meeting in 2009.
WHAT’S FALSE
There was nothing nefarious in the transfer of the ten-gram sample, which was done at the request of Russian law enforcement and with the consent of the government of Georgia, whose agents had participated in its confiscation.
ORIGIN
In May and June 2017, a number of hyperpartisan news and opinion web sites published articles reporting that former Federal Bureau of Investigation director Robert Mueller, who in mid-May was named special counsel in the Justice Department’s investigation into alleged ties between the Trump presidential campaign and Russian officials, was himself enmeshed in “secret dealings” with Russia related to his 2009 delivery of a sample of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to Moscow ordered by Hillary Clinton.
The conspiracy web site Intellihub noted that the transfer was revealed in a WikiLeaks release of a classified State Department cable:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton facilitated the transfer a highly enriched uranium (HEU) previously confiscated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) during a 2006 “nuclear smuggling sting operation involving one Russian national and several Georgian accomplices,” a newly leaked classified cable shows.
So-called “background” information was provided in the cable which gave vague details on a 2006 nuclear smuggling sting operation in which the U.S. government took possession of some HEU previously owned by the Russians.
The secret “action request,” dated Aug. 17, 2009, was sent out by Secretary of State Clinton and was addressed to the United States Ambassador to Georgia Embassy Tbilisi, the Russian Embassy, and Ambassador John Beyrle. It proposed that FBI Director Robert Mueller be the one that personally conduct the transfer a 10-gram sample of HEU to Russian law enforcement sources during a secret “plane-side” meeting on a “tarmac” in the early fall of 2009.
Carbon dioxide in atmosphere hits highest level in 800,000 years, increases at record rate – “The laws of physics mean that we face a much hotter, more extreme climate”
Hundreds of Taliban fighters in the western province of Farah paraded their vehicles and then stood in formation for a lengthy period of time, without fear of being targeted by Afghan or Coalition forces, to listen to an official give a speech recently . The Taliban continues to be able to operate openly in nearly all areas of the country.
The Curious World of Donald Trump’s Private Russian Connections
I’ve always been blessed with a kind of intuition about people that allows me to sense who the sleazy guys are, and I stay far away.” ~ Donald Trump, Surviving at the Top
New knowledge can be dredged up from unlikely sources.
Researchers working with the KJB and a stone monument in an Egyptian museum dating from the days of the pharaohs have combined better translations of the texts with new and more sophisticated methods of calculating the precise time at which eclipses have occurred in particular spots to fix the date of the earliest ( known ) recorded eclipse, according to this link.
I am under the impression the Chinese have some records of eclipses that were likely previous to this one. Perhaps they can be accurately dated too, at some future time.
A lot can be lost, or erroneously gained, in errors of translation.
I can’t quote it, but there is an ancient Chinese text that can be interpreted as the record of a Chinese expediton to explore North America. It refers to dog headed people, which seems to mean it’s not credible at all.
But it turns out that there were indigenous people here who wore dog head masks for ceremonial purposes. Allow a few shortcuts or mistakes to be made in copying old documents over and over, as the centuries pass, and in translating them from dying dialects to emerging dialects, or new languages altogether, and ….. well a reference to dog headed people doesn’t indicate the original text is fraudulent. This reference, in retrospect, can actually be reasonably interpreted as possible proof it’s genuine.
I believe there is a kernel of truth in a LOT of legends, and that a fair number of these kernels will be discovered eventually.
EMISSIONS GAP REMAINS ‘ALARMINGLY HIGH’ SAYS UN
In its annual review, the UN says the gap between carbon cutting plans and the reductions required to keep temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius is “alarmingly high”. If the Paris targets are to be reached then coal use for energy must stop the report warns. Some 80-90% of reserves must remain in the ground. This compares to around 35% for oil and 50% for gas reserves. In terms of which countries as doing their fair share, the UN report says China, the EU, India and Japan are on track to meet their 2020 pledges. Should the US follow through on its promise to leave the Paris pact, the report states that the picture will become bleaker.
Yup, snips from your link (and these are from REAL climate scientists).
“Temperature increases beyond 1C may elicit rapid, unpredictable and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage.”
“….to prevent global warming from feeding off itself by triggering long-term, potentially irreversible environmental domino effects, such as ice loss and forest die-back, and the weakening ability of things such as our oceans to absorb carbon…”
“…to prevent global warming from feeding off itself by triggering long-term, potentially irreversible environmental domino effects, such as ice loss and forest die-back, and the weakening ability of things such as our oceans to absorb carbon…”
“We have no evidence that a 1.9C rise is something we can easily cope with, and 2.1 is a disaster.”
The teeth tell the story that CO2 was similar to pre and post CO2 levels during the PETM. It’s the methane.
Now does the seabed look so friendly when you warm up the waters?
Temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite
The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a remarkable climatic and environmental event that occurred 56 Ma ago and has importance for understanding possible future climate change. The Paleocene–Eocene transition is marked by a rapid temperature rise contemporaneous with a large negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE). Both the temperature and the isotopic excursion are well-documented by terrestrial and marine proxies. The CIE was the result of a massive release of carbon into the atmosphere. However, the carbon source and quantities of CO2 and CH4 greenhouse gases that contributed to global warming are poorly constrained and highly debated. Here we combine an established oxygen isotope paleothermometer with a newly developed triple oxygen isotope paleo-CO2 barometer. We attempt to quantify the source of greenhouse gases released during the Paleocene–Eocene transition by analyzing bioapatite of terrestrial mammals. Our results are consistent with previous estimates of PETM temperature change and suggest that not only CO2 but also massive release of seabed methane was the driver for CIE and PETM.
Why do these science articles never have comment sections?
Good question.
I’ll file that inquiry under “fuckin’ duh!”
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
The usual terms such as imbecile, moron, idiot are not sufficient to describe the depths of absolute fucking dumbassery to which you have descended with that question! Do you even have any clue at all, as to what science is and how it works?! Don’t worry, that’s a rhetorical question…
I seriously doubt this will help you but perhaps it will spark someone else’s curiosity as to how some of this stuff actually works. Here goes nothing!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method Scientific Method The scientific method is a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry is commonly based on empirical or measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academic_conference Scientific Conferences An academic conference or symposium is a conference for researchers (not necessarily academics) to present and discuss their work. Together with academic or scientific journals, conferences provide an important channel for exchange of information between researchers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_review Peer Review Scholarly peer review (also known as refereeing) is the process of subjecting an author’s scholarly work, research, or ideas to the scrutiny of others who are experts in the same field, before a paper describing this work is published in a journal or as a book
https://www.academiccoachingandwriting.org/academic-writing/resources/citations Citations:
As an academic writer, you must document all of the sources of information that you include in your papers, presentations, and any other projects. The reason for citations and documentation is to credit the author and publisher for their original work and to enable your readers to consult the same sources.
Now please get back under whatever rock you crawled out from!
And what Survivalist said!
And another villager is successful in distracting any discussion of the subject itself.
Why doesn’t the bible have comment sections, and fact checking?
They don’t want to risk having the truth exposed. Notice at least they are telling where the public grants came from this time.
Jimmy Eckardt, latest on my ‘X’ list.
Doesn’t this conflict with other recent research which suggests previous estimates for ocean temperatures (which also implies Global temperature) are too high?
It would seem that both of these papers cannot be correct as the results are inconsistent.
I am quite surprised lately, you are usually quite conservative in your conclusions. I assume you are speaking of the simple laboratory simulation on O18 in calcite done by researchers that showed a drift in concentration in the lab. Even those researchers declared there was much more work to be done and their research only implied a possible change in the way past ocean temps are estimated.
For some reason the articles referred to 100 million years ago, while the PETM occurred around 55 million years ago, a minor difference in time, but I think appropriate to announce.
As far as your saying that there is lower sensitivity, I refer you to the current 1 degree change in just one century. Which is a far lower rate of temperature rise than was estimated for the PETM.
So if sensitivity is low, how does one explain the current changes so far? Also consider we have not seen the changes in temperature from the large pulse of GHG over the last 30 years nor the longer term rise due to thermal inertia of the ocean. So the actual sensitivity could very well be higher or the estimates of forcing are too low.
The apatite data from the paper above was from mammals not sea life, not in contact with sea water and not subject to the conditions simulated with pure O18 in the lab.
Note also that pure O18 does not exist in a natural setting, it’s abundance in oxygen is about 0.2%.
Hi Gone fishing,
Yes the results are preliminary, but my understanding was that the paper concluded that 100 Million years ago ocean temperatures were lower than previously estimated. My interpretation was that in general ocean temperatures had been overestimated, so I assumed that would include both 50 million years ago as well as 100 million years ago.
Generally speaking a cooler ocean tends to correspond with cooler Global temperature averages, so perhaps global temperatures from 50-100 million years ago have all been overestimated.
It is also possible that the research is incorrect, I am not really qualified to determine, generally Nature does a pretty good job of peer review as far as I understand.
Yes I am well aware that O18 is not very abundant in a natural setting.
My guess is that the experimental simulation took that fact into account.
I am also pretty clear on the thermal inertia of the ocean, that is why the transient climate response is about 1.8 C (happens relatively quickly and is better reflected in the change in Global land ocean temperature as the natural log of atmospheric CO2 increases, or one could use CO2 equivalent). The change in temperature once oceans have come into thermal equilibrium with a given level of radiative forcing is better estimated by looking at land only temperature vs the natural log of CO2 (or equivalent) and points to about 3.2 C for a doubling of CO2 for equilibrium climate sensitivity. Albedo, permafrost melt, and changes in land forms are likely to result in higher Earth system sensitivity, how to estimate this is far from clear as it may depend on the relative size of ice sheets. Today Northern hemisphere ice sheets are about one tenth the size of ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum, if 3.8 C of Earth system sensitivity (out of 7 C total) is due to ice sheet change, then if it is proportional to area only then perhaps 0.4 C of extra Earth System sensitivity would be due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet suggesting an ESS of about 3.6 C, melting of a portion of the Antarctic ice sheet might raise this further, perhaps to 4 C.
We do not have very well constrained estimates of Earth System Sensitivity.
No doubt a simple linear regression will not cover the full complexity of climate physics, that is what global climate models attempt to do, though also with imperfection.
Well, I see you are hanging fast on hard on a simple lab experiment that does not simulate earth conditions and is extrapolated across the globe and millions of years of time. Ok. In that case CO2 is not much of a factor in global warming.
Of course lower sensitivity does not jive with current reality. Short term sensitivity seems above 3C so I will go with reality.
I will stick with the more adept and able climate scientists on that one as well as the field climatologists.
Or we can wait 5000 years and see how it goes? 🙂
BTW, I really do like your global warming mantra but you are very confused about snow, ice and ice sheet factors.
My rough estimate is about 1 watt/m2 positive forcing global for every 5 degrees the land snow extent is pushed northward in the NH from 45 north upward. Not including Greenland (which is more an ice cap than a snow field).
I underestimated by just using winter cover.
Artic Ocean ice free in Sept adds 0.4 w/m2 globally and ice free all summer over 1.5 watt/m2.
The models do not have ice-free Sept until 2060, some even later. I think they need to step it up a bit.
As some famous climatologists have said, the Arctic amplification will double the climate forcing.
The scary part is that every day that passes the burning of fossil fuels is less dependent upon population and more dependent upon automation. Look at the US, relatively low density of population and the big GDP guy in the world.
Let it be known that various revisionist charlatans are out there trying to deny beer it’s place in history, claiming that it wasn’t the drink of choice during the last few centuries before we learned how to preserve food and provide ourselves with clean drinking water.
I will go to my final resting place utterly convinced that my ancestors drank beer in vast quantities for very practical reasons, the two biggest being that it was safer by a mile than the water available in urban areas back then , and the other that a hearty beer is loaded with calories and also provides a some need minerals and even a little protein. Food was scarce and expensive, and every calorie was needed.
Beer keeps. Brewing beer means grain and anything else tossed into the vat is preserved, as opposed to rotting away or being consumed by rats and insects.
My favorite man cave wall decoration has a picture of a man and a woman toasting each other with a brew, and is captioned BEER HELPING UGLY PEOPLE GET LAID AS FAR BACK AS HISTORY RECORDS.
I won’t quibble about the fact that what people drank that far back is more accurately described as wine.
Back when I was a kid, we used to get a pickup truck load of bread as often as once a week at what they called the “day old bread store”, which was where the industrial bread companies sent their out of date bread and pastries. Some of it was still perfectly satisfactory for the table, and I ate quite a few of the pastries, which must have been a source of considerable resentment on the part of the pigs who watched me eat them. A pig is the only animal of my acquaintance that looks you in the eye as an equal, and pigs seem to like sweets as much as kids.
I don’t know where that bread goes these days, but I strongly suspect most of it is sold directly to a commercial feed producer who is incorporating it into an animal feed product. Any from smaller stores that fails to sell after marking it down winds up in dumpsters. Locally at least a few enterprising employees of such stores and restaurants retrieve it and use it themselves or sell it for use as live stock feed.
You can read all about the way every small scrap of left over food is used as feed for pigs and chickens kept in cities in other countries that are not so prosperous. Some of us might live to see this become a common practice here in the USA.
Barrow Alaska Methane concentration
There was a episode of Coast To Coast not very long ago, with scientists on to explain how Arctic locations like in Barrow are thought of as the tail pipes of world. Ocean currents move exhaust gases there, then vent it out into deep space. The conclusion by the scientists was, the spiking methane levels were something going on for eons but only discovered in recent times because of the new technologies and ability to get to just about any place in the world we want to in order to study physical processes. The conclusion, there shouldn’t be anything to be concerned about. Earth has many self cleaning processes operating in a cycle that we have just started to understand.
“Ocean currents move exhaust gases there, then vent it out into deep space.”
Thanks for coming out short bus.
“Earth has many self cleaning processes operating in a cycle that we have just started to understand.”
Yes indeed: Late Devonian, 375 million years ago, 75% of species lost; End Permian, 251 million years ago, 96% of species lost; End Triassic, 200 million years ago, 80% of species lost; End Cretaceous, 66 million years ago, 76% of all species lost. And, Biologists suspect we’re living through a sixth major mass extinction called Holocene extinction (otherwise referred to as the Anthropocene extinction), an ongoing extinction event of species during the present Holocene epoch — mainly due to human activity.
And another one rides the bus.
Thanks for that Jimmy. And to think I was feeling like we a problem on our hands.
Fuck off, moron!
Man whoever said that first thank you. I never get tired of the way the keys flick off my fingers.
“Ocean currents move exhaust gasses there, then vent it out into deep space.”
All you here with your “educations” and “understandings of natural history” and “rational thought”, I challenge you to come up with a sentence dumber than this one. Go ahead, I’ll wait.
The in-situ data gets updated sooner – this year is really spiking….
The spike last year in CO2 showed up at stations all around the arctic – not just Barrow. This is unlikely a local source.
King Coal is roaring back to life! 😆
.
Yeah, a rise in exports and a slight rise in natural gas prices gave coal a boost. Production fell the first two quarters of this year.
In two years about as many Chinese coal miners die from mine accidents as there are American coal miners in total (all extraction jobs, not just underground).
Take a journey into coal territory in China. A Journey To The End of Coal
Why would anyone make such a user unfriendly presentation? . . . . the honkytonk link from GF I mean.
What a load of bulldust.
Marvelous footage, they did the legwork and then to stuff it up like that . . . sheesh
I found no problem with it. Just click and go to the next venue. It actually was fun, a derivative of some of the old computer adventures. It takes some time, not meant for the those with short attention spans or those who want to be fully served.
Lots of good stories from the people.
I think some of the frustration and dead ends involving government and traveling in China were purposely built in to the story. So it worked.
Things continue to get more surreal by the moment.
I guess if you elect a clown, you get a circus.
Sometimes it’s the little things that bring home our losses………. the sight of the bicycle a dead child’s bicycle……..
This is the fifth or sixth year in a ROW now that we aren’t going to get our usual local fall colors. The woods are pretty, but the colors are muted, very pale. Mother Nature used to put on a show for us here in these southern mountains, dressing like the flamboyant old show girl she is for the evening before going to bed for the winter.
We aren’t getting the cold nights necessary to bring the fall colors out. A lot of trees have lost their leaves already in heavy rains, without displaying more than a hint of their usual orange , red , or yellow shades.
I know…….. It’s just weather………. Until it becomes the norm over enough years.
I don’t have a real clue as to who might be living on my place in twenty or thirty years.
Maybe I ought to put in a pecan grove. Pecans here in the past haven’t produced a good crop more than maybe once every eight to ten years, as estimated by talking to people who have a tree or two on their property. But with warm weather arriving earlier and holding later becoming the new norm………. by the time pecan trees planted now are old enough to produce……….. ??? And even if they don’t, the wood is still good for fuel and lumber.
Now being that HB has blown my cover, I might as well admit I really am an old time bright red commie, one well trained in the subversion and destruction of enemy countries. Since we have won, I can something slip that people only HALF WAY awake, such as old HB, never seem to figure out. Hardly any of you dumb capitalists ever figure it out.
Our short and medium term goal is to subvert and make use of any and every enemy politician and businessman and journalist foolish enough to take our bait, by any means we can, with the end game, if we win, being Mother Russia being THE Superpower.
We made a great lick with that fool HRC, because we got the uranium cheap, there isn’t really any scandal involved in our getting it……… at least nothing that can be proven. The sales process was as clean as a new pin , every i was dotted, every T was crossed. BUT she was foolish enough to gamble that she and her hubby and her kid could take that hundred million in smelly donations to the family slush fund without her DOMESTIC enemies figuring it out, lol, and capitalizing on it. If you dumb ass Yankee partisans of the right wing had been to stupid too figure it out, we would have helped them along as necessary.
And we simply couldn’t believe our luck when it came to her secret email system, which of course even a child must understand could have been put in place for only one possible reason, and that sure as the Christian fire pit wasn’t convenience or even the result of plain old stupidity. And her partisans are still arguing that it was safe, and that we couldn’t hack it, even after thousands of supposedly confidential documents were found on her homie girl’s pervert husband’s computer…… Now I’m hoping to be decorated personally in the Kremlin for managing to pull THAT one off. Best piece of trade craft of my entire career, and one to go down in history, lol.
We Russians are extremely skilled when it comes to dropping cigarette butts and even lit matches in dry leaves in Yankee territory. We don’t get as many fires as we would like, but we still get some pretty nice ones.
Maybe the help we gave him was enough to put Trump over the top and in the WH, although and modesty forces me to admit that the real reason he won is that his opponent was such an inept campaigner, and started the race pulling a career long baggage train. That Great Right Wing Conspiracy we created and nurtured along for the last forty years or so finally paid off!!!!
So Trump like his opponent took the chocolate ( you need to have read The Silence of the Lambs ) and now he does what we want, we have him exactly where we want him.
And no matter WHAT, we come away big winners, covered up with roses, like the horse in the big race. Even if his domestic enemies manage to get rid of him, we have still done you the capitalist pigs great damage, and THAT is what we set out to do. I’m pretty sure I will get my dacha just outside Moscow, and a car, and a driver, and access to goods from Western stores, when I am finally called home, when I’m too old to be of any more use as a field agent. Any day now, lol.
That is if they don’t shoot me for shooting off my mouth.
Maybe I better just stay here. Already got a dacha, and a car too. Not to mention a farm, and some yankee dollars in a glass jar buried out in the woods. Ya can’t find glass with dogs or radar or anything else. Good trade craft.
Now I am sure you Yankees will excuse any minor flaws in my vocabulary, grammar, and punctuation. English Yankee style comes hard for me.
tva-jó zda-ró-vye – Your health!
ps, Nostrovia! is not a toast as such back home, it’s an expression of thanks for food and drink.
But here it has come to mean about the same thing as CHEERS!
As Hickory Edwards says, “We’re made out of that same water. Our elders and ancestors were made out of that same water. Seven generations from now, our grandchildren will be made out of that same water.” The thought of crude oil infecting the water of Standing Rock is anathema to the Sioux community. “We feel it’s extremely important to fight for this water,” Edwards says, “for everyone.”
Though oil is now flowing freely along the Stanley, ND-Patoka, IL route—thanks in no small part to the current administration—the national Native American community is not about to abandon its fight for the hazard-free sacred space promised by the Horse Creek accord. Symbols like Edwards’s multicultural signpost have the power to galvanize change, and in time, the Sioux and their allies hope the U.S. government will reform its historically exploitative stance towards Native Americans and sincerely follow through with its vows. As a quote from former Supreme Court justice Hugo Black states in the “Nation to Nation” exhibition, “Great nations, like great men, should keep their word.”
I understand. As Jesse Jackson said, we didn’t all come in the same boat, but we’re all in the same boat now.
People now dead but once personally close to me have had some or all of their property seized to create a national park or to build roads. Others of us have been forced to allow power lines and water and sewer lines to be built across our property.
On the other hand, if oil doesn’t flow thru a NEW pipeline, it will as a practical matter flow thru old ones….. which are probably a hundred times more likely to fail than a new one built to the newest standards.
And we’re stuck with using oil for at least another couple of generations.
How ‘Russian’ Facebook Memes Expose the Brutal Realities of American Foreign Policy
Hillary Clinton acknowledging U.S. role in fueling al-Qaeda
AS ICE RETREATS, FROZEN MOSSES EMERGE TO TELL CLIMATE CHANGE TALE
Originally, the researchers expected to find plants dating to medieval times, which would have suggested that the region is the warmest it’s been since the Middle Ages. But finding 3,700-year-old plants was a surprise, Miller said. And we never anticipated we’d find plants 40,000 years old, he added. It’s a bit spooky because it provides quantitative evidence that the magnitude of summer warmth is already sufficient to melt all ice in the eastern Canadian Arctic. It’s just a matter of time now.
Miller said. And we never anticipated we’d find plants 40,000 years old, he added.
Fucking great!
Yeah and on top of that our agricultural practices, thanks to growing corn for raising all those pigs, chickens, and cows are destroying our prairies and grassland ecosystems. Three cheers for Scott Pruitt head of the EPA and possible future head of the USDA Sam Clovis! These people are worse than the pond scum their ignorance and ideologies are producing!
They need to be put in jail along with Trump and most of the GOP politicians.
Tyson Foods Linked to Largest Toxic Dead Zone in U.S. History
Another alarming characteristic of industrial agriculture is that because it’s so intensive, fields are quickly exhausted, and the industry must continuously expand to new areas. For this reason, the American prairie and grassland ecosystems are being altered faster than the Amazon rainforest.
A recent University of Wisconsin study estimated that this loss of natural grassland “could have emitted as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as 34 coal-fired power plants operating for one year—the equivalent of 28 million more cars on the road,” noted Mighty Earth. These unique landscapes are among the most threatened in the world, and are irreversibly damaged after conversion into crop fields, often to grow corn and soy. At a time in our country when public lands are being attacked from many angles, industrial-scale agriculture to support the meat industry is the biggest challenge these ecosystems face.
Ah yes, Tyson, one of our most honorable and upstanding corporate citizens. Maybe tonight I will tell all you kiddies about the way Tyson treats chicken farmers. There are some in my neighborhood, close enough that we used to go to their places to load up with chicken doo doo for the farm.It’s GREAT fertilizer, except there’s not even one hundredth of one percent enough available to make any real difference in the need for manufactured / mined fertilizers.
This one’s for HB. From Wikipedia
“Clinton had no experience in such financial instruments.[2] Bill Clinton’s salary as Arkansas Attorney General and then Governor of Arkansas was modest and Clinton later said she had been interested in building a financial cushion for the future.[3][4] The Clintons’ combined income in 1978 from the governorship and Rose Law Firm amounted to $51,173,[5] equivalent to $187,900 in 2016”
Can we say one percenter, folks? Now for a couple of kids with law degrees from snooty Ivy League U’s and good enough connections to already be GOVERNOR and first lady………. to be worried about needing a nest egg? Come on folks. That’s the same sort of shit she was peddling about convenience when she set up her doofus secret email system.
“James Blair was a friend, lawyer, outside counsel to Tyson Foods, Arkansas’ largest employer, and had been doing so well trading commodities futures that he encouraged friends and family to enter the market too.[6][3][4] Blair in turn traded through, and relied upon cattle markets expertise from, broker Robert L. “Red” Bone of Refco, a former Tyson executive and professional poker player who was a World Series of Poker semifinalist.[4][7] In October 1978, when Bill Clinton was Attorney General and on the verge of being elected Governor,[1] Clinton opened a trading account, although Blair made most of the trades.
By January 1979, Clinton was up $26,000;[4] but later, she would lose $16,000 in a single trade.[4] At one point she owed in excess of $100,000 to Refco as part of covering losses, but no margin calls were made by Refco against her.[4] Near the end of the trading, Blair correctly sold short and gave her a $40,000 gain in one afternoon.[4] In July 1979,[1] once she became pregnant with Chelsea Clinton, “I lost my nerve for gambling [and] walked away from the table $100,000 ahead.”[3] She briefly traded sugar futures contracts and other non-cattle commodities in October 1979, but more conservatively, through Stephens Inc.[4][8] During this period she made about $6,500 in gains (which she failed to pay taxes on at the time, consequently later paying some $14,600 in federal and state taxes. ”
Now I was long OVER my long haired hippie phase at that time and hanging around with some right winger types sometimes, dividing my time between the country where I owned some property and the city where I was hanging out playing grad student with those leftie girls at the U. ( That’s VCU for people from out of town. ) I mean, my hair was still long, but not down over my shoulders anymore, and I had it trimmed regularly by a professional, ya had to look good to date the beautiful women.
Anyway, I researched Cattle Gate rather carefully. Old Red would be locked up tighter than a you know what’s backside these days, but back then, considering who all the power players were in the noble state of Arkansas, he got off with having his license lifted.
NONE of his OTHER clients ever did even as REMOTELY well as HRC, lol.
Now I can’t actually prove it in a court of law, but the way you could make such a run in those days, without the sort of luck that would mean winning Powerball TWICE, is this.
Things ran on paper back then. The broker put in orders to buy and sell, but he did not NECESSARILY put the names of his clients on the orders RIGHT AWAY.
“As it happened, during the period of Clinton’s trading, Refco was under investigation by the Mercantile Exchange for systematic violations of its margin trading rules and reporting requirements regarding cattle trading.[2][8] In December 1979, the exchange issued a three-year suspension to Bone and a $250,000 fine of Refco (at the time, the largest such penalty imposed by the exchange)”
So …… you buy some and you sell some, in the morning, not knowing which way the market will move…… and in the afternoon, if your broker happens to be your SPECIAL friend, and not much worried about going to jail or anything like that, considering who YOU are, well…….. he JUST MIGHT CONCEIVABLY have sort of cherry picked winners and losers for his special friends, ya see.
Now of course to actually BELIEVE that happened, you would undoubtedly have to be a hard core Fox News Rube, a KGB hacker, a right wing ninnie com poop, lol.
” One analysis performed by Auburn University and published in the Journal of Economics and Finance claimed to find that the odds of a return that large during the period in question were about one in 31 trillion.[15][16][17]”
And to make it easier for the true believers to keep this rather unpalatable horse choker down, of course you put in a few losers here and there to make it look better.
When the regulars get together to skin a new sucker at the poker table, they ALWAYS have one or two of the regulars come out losers too. This way the sucker most often doesn’t even realize he’s been had. Been there, been the sucker myself. It didn’t take me long to realize it though, and it didn’t cost me much because I never played for high enough stakes with strangers for my losses to matter.
If it weren’t for exposing some of our current operatives, being as my cover is already blown, I could brag about how we got somebody to whisper in HRC’s ear about how EASY it is to make money, sometimes, if you happen to be positioned just right.
And then we put enough guys to work as reporters and mouth pieces for the R’s to make sure that later on, the story would be well known, in case we ever wanted to back somebody who would want to scream ” Crooked Hillary!” leading the crowd in chanting “Lock her up! Lock her up!”
Because you see, we’re a lot like the devil or the Mafia, once we have something on you, we never forget, because we may have an opportunity to use it against you later.
Now is Trump WORSE? There’s no doubt in my mind that he IS.
But he’s a real World Series level crook. HRC, by comparison, might have made the varsity at a small college.
Now of course old HB is perfectly free to call me a Fox News Rube again. I can always amuse myself in return with a reply like this one.
Rube, I realize you know very little regarding the markets, commodities and investing. It takes money to play with the big boys. My refinery stocks are up 10K today, tomorrow they could be down 15K. Commodities are much more volatile. I would suggest you just take off your panties. That way they won’t get tied up into a wad.
Get over its. Americans gain and lose millions everyday in the market. It’s been almost 40 years and for the last 25 years HRC has been the Republican number one target. Innocent until proven guilty. Your beating a dead horse.
Your a Fox News Rube and make Sean Hannity proud of himself.
Sure HB,
I bet you wish your wife was the governor, and you had a brokerage and an broker as crooked as the one HRC had, and a the lawyer as your consigliere who is outside counsel to the the biggest company in the state, and the opportunity to double down any time without any money in your account, since you are only a brand new customer but still super special, lol.
I mean, hell,your broker will probably let you run in the hole a couple of hundred grand ( lets not forget inflation) without calling you, right?
Now as it happens, I do know a few things about commodities and how fast prices can move. They teach the basics of commodity markets in first year econ, or at least they did back when I was in college. I don’t know how much time they devote to this subject at the Mack Truck salesmanship school.
I mean, hell half of the people in the commodities speculation game make a hundred times their investment in a year. RIGHT?
Now if your princess had made maybe a THOUSAND times her investment, THAT might have raised some eyebrows ya reckon???
Do you realize that you sound like as big an idiot defending HRC’s ethics this way as Trump himself sounds twittering about fake news ?
NAH.
The more you make a fool of yourself this way, the better I like it. The lesson is that if you want your party to win elections, you should work to nominate candidates that are reasonably well liked by the general public and that aren’t pulling career long baggage trains, and that are smart enough enough to avoid such awesomely stupid mistakes as setting up secret home brew email systems to hide SOME of their dirty laundry, and smart enough to avoid accepting a hundred million in dirty money while holding high office, etc etc etc.
I’m having fun. I don’t mind being called names, lol.
You’re playing right into my hands, and you’re too stupid to even realize that you are doing so. You’re defending the indefensible.You make the dumbest sort of fundamentalist backwoods Baptist talking about Jesus coming to fly him up to Heaven look like a Nobel Prize winner.
You’re reduced to calling me names, lol, you have NOTHING to refute my comments pointing out HRC’s shortcomings.
Trump has his fake news, HRC has her Great Right Wing Conspiracy. Some people are dumb enough to believe in Trump, and some people are dumb enough to believe in HRC.
Now if you ever wise up enough to quit calling me names, I will eventually get tired of baiting you, and quit it.
Or maybe Ron or Dennis will get tired of it, and tell me to stop. It’s their forum.
“Now if you ever wise up enough to quit calling me names, I will eventually get tired of baiting you, and quit it.”
Republicans have been calling HRC “names” for over 25 years. For you it’s been less than a years. There is only one way you can get me to stop. Think about it. I’m just treating you like Trump treats everyone. I’m branding you.
Buck up big boy, you sound like your whining
And I’m getting a lot of mileage out of it. Do you think I actually WANT you to stop? If so, you’re even dumber than I thought.
You may convince a few people who don’t actually READ my comments that HRC is or was a competent and ethical politician.
Anybody who actually reads them will very shortly understand that there is a great deal of truth at the core of what ideologues and partisans of the D persuasion refer to as the GREAT RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY.
Sometime in the next few days, I will make a point of looking up the names and professions or businesses of some of the donors of that hundred million in donations that went to her family slush fund while she was doing business as secretary of state, lol. And I will post that information HERE.
ONE of my goals is to remind people of all sorts that if they want to win elections, they should restrict themselves to supporting candidates during the primary season that are well liked by the general public, or at least not REVILED by roughly half of the voting public, lol.
HRC was the only Democrat in the country that Trump could have beaten, because she was the only one dumb enough to make the mistakes she made such as Cattle Gate, Water Gate, the secret email system, the slush funds, the nose in the air way of talking about the core of the REAL Democratic party, calling them names, hanging out with banksters and movie stars instead of campaigning in the Rust Belt, etc, etc, etc, rigging the primary process to the point it INFURIATED the younger people in the Sanders camp, etc.
See, except you don’t see, I have facts to back up whatever I say, except when I clearly identify my words as my own opinions.
You are reduced to calling me names and talking like a preacher, telling people that if they believe what scientists have to say, they will burn in hell. Acceptance of YOUR argument depends ENTIRELY on taking it literally as a matter of faith, not to be questioned.
You’re the Wizard of Oz, and I’m the little doggy pulling back the curtain exposing your huffing and puffing and lies.
One day before long, I will post some relevant facts associated with the Whitewater scandal.
And from an NPR program, which you can bet your ass was slanted to the maximum extent possible to make the Clintons look no more guilty than necessary.
“Outcome: Neither Bill nor Hillary Clinton faced prosecution for their involvement in Whitewater. But their public statements about the matter, and the handling of documents that went missing and later reappeared, came under intense scrutiny. Their partners in the real estate investment were Jim McDougal and his then-wife Susan. Jim McDougal was convicted of fraud charges for making bad loans and he died of heart disease in a Texas prison. Susan was convicted of fraud in connection with obtaining a $300,000 federally-backed small business loan. She refused to answer grand jury questions in the Whitewater affair and was held in contempt of court, spending 18 months in jail. Bill Clinton pardoned her before he left the White House in early 2001.”
Does this smell sort of like last week’s fish? I mean, you have two IVY League lawyers who are EITHER associates of crooks, or so fucking STUPID they can’t recognize such crooks for what they are, and enter into business partnerships with them??
Rube again, “Your beating a dead horse”
You need to get over your “hate”
Exciting times for neutron star aficionados:
SQUISHY OR SOLID? A NEUTRON STAR’S INSIDES OPEN TO DEBATE
“The core of a neutron star is such an extreme environment that physicists can’t agree on what happens inside. But a new space-based experiment — and a few more colliding neutron stars — should reveal whether neutrons themselves break down.”
From the perspective of nuclear physics, neutron stars could just be protons and neutrons, collectively called nucleons, all the way in — but maybe not! Maybe there’s a quark core or hyperon core or even a kaon condensate core. And, where do magnetars get their immense magnetic fields from (10^11 (or even 10^15 gauss)) and how, precisely, are jets generated?
Probably forming a strange kind of superconductor near the center.
Neutron stars have long been suspected to contain superfluid neutrons, and superfluid (since protons are charged), superconducting protons. The content of a neutron star’s core is quite a topical issue now. It could be “merely” neutrons plus some protons (10%). It could include more exotic subatomic particles, including some with strange quarks. It could even be things like kaon condensates. No one is really sure. A precise measurement of the mass and radius of an individual neutron star would tell us a lot, since the content of the core affects the maximum possible mass and the relation between mass and radius for neutron stars. Mass measurements exist, but accurate radius measurements are extremely tough: they are either imprecise or highly dependent on models (i.e., not reliable), or usually both. This is changing as better X-ray spectroscopy becomes available.
Would the composition of a neutron star depend on it’s mass, more mass more density? Is there a lower and upper limit to the mass of a neutron star?
NAOM
“Would the composition of a neutron star depend on its mass?” Depends how you define composition. Neutrons may degenerate into other forms of matter depending on pressure, temperature, etc. as you approach the “core”.
“Is there a lower and upper limit to the mass of a neutron star?” Yes, stellar core collapse will result in a white dwarf, a neutron star, or a black hole, depending on its final mass. The minimum observed mass for a neutron star is about 1.2 solar mass. The upper bound on neutron star mass seems to be about 2.9 solar mass (perhaps less). However, a neutron star’s maximum mass is related to properties of matter at densities far beyond that found in heavy atomic nuclei and the physics of this is poorly understood.
Thanks, very helpful. Seems like quite a small range of masses.
NAOM
BP AND SHELL PLANNING FOR CATASTROPHIC 5°C GLOBAL WARMING DESPITE PUBLICLY BACKING PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT
Oil giants Shell and BP are planning for global temperatures to rise as much as 5°C by the middle of the century. The level is more than double the upper limit committed to by most countries in the world under the Paris Climate Agreement, which both companies publicly support.
The headline is a bit over the top for what the reports say, but they are worth a read.
Well George, 5°C would be an unmitigated fucking disaster; may as well pack up our tents and take up religion. Maybe one where you live in Valhalla because earth will (would) become living hell. Hard to imagine how you would plan for 5°C. Any suggestions?
Meanwhile,
CLIMATE TROUBLE MAY BE BUBBLING UP IN FAR NORTH
Researchers say air temperatures here in northwest Canada, in Siberia and elsewhere in the Arctic have risen more than 2.5 C (4.5 F) since 1970, much faster than the global average. The summer thaw is reaching deeper into frozen soil, at a rate of 4 centimeters (1.5 inches) a year, and a further 7 C (13 F) temperature rise is possible this century, says the authoritative, U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Researchers led by the University of Florida’s Ted Schuur last year calculated that the top three meters (10 feet) of permafrost alone contain more carbon than is currently in the atmosphere. “It’s safe to say the surface permafrost, 3 to 5 meters, is at risk of thawing in the next 100 years,” Schuur said by telephone from an Alaska research site. “It can’t stay intact.”
Wow! So that means not in any of our lifetimes. Not even our investment lifetimes.
Just our children’s’.
NAOM
Hard to imagine how you would plan for 5°C. Any suggestions?
Um, Soylent Green? Well, maybe just Soylent drink…
Given that a 5°C rise in global average temperatures would pretty much mean then end of agriculture and food production as we know it today we need to get serious about alternative energy for our bodies! No more corn wheat or soy and no more cows, pigs, chickens or farmed fish either.
Hey, I’m already eating a gateway insect product. It’s a cricket protein energy bar. Maybe I’ll try this new Soylent drink next. In the meantime if anyone runs into our current Secretary of State Rex Tillerson or Shell’s CEO Ben van Beurden, tell them that planet wants them both to go fuck themselves.
Neil deGrasse Tyson and Soylent CEO Rob Rhinehart break down what it would take to get us to a meal-in-a-pill
Neil deGrasse Tyson talks to Rob Rhinehart, the founder and CEO of Soylent. Neil tries Soylent and gives his take on the meal replacement drink.
.
There are things called mountains. They can be thousands of feet high and some have nice plateaus. I figure about 2500 to 3000 feet up would make it cool enough at my latitude. Lots of wind up there too to use for power. That and small waterfalls.
Mountain Man? Don’t forget to take lots of bullets and guns. From what I’ve seen and heard, Yanks aren’t as civil as the Swiss. 🙂
I grew up around mountain people, far better than most of the yahoos down in flatville. Once the city people that moved up there are gone, it will be quite nice again. They will leave as soon as the drugs dry up.
Being shot by a polite person is not different than being shot by an ornery old cuss.
Any suggestions?
Well, this was Burroughs thoughts:
“get me off this hot, crowded, cop ridden planet”
-or something like that
Doug – have I any suggestions … er …
“Hang on a minute lads I’ve, gotta great idea … um … um” (C. Croker)
Damn! That makes a nice segue, for the fossil fuel fossils, – all together now
“This is the self-preservation society
This is the self-preservation society”
NAOM
Dang, Javier and OFM have worn out my mouse, need a new one!
5°C by mid-century – just 30 years or so…
Doesn’t sound like something you could plan for, that’s not only extreme but happening way to fast for technology to react. Maybe we could grow crops indoors under climate control. Nice thing is it also eliminates the need for pesticides and herbicides. Not all that crazy, still easier than growing something on Mars, but sounds like there wont be enough time.
Our techno narcissistic friends are not going to save us.
If fact, they are part of the problem.
The articles said 3 to 5 and probably not so fast, as I said the headline was extreme (The Independent is going bust so maybe they are switching tactics to get readers, they used to be the voice of reason – probably hence the money troubles). Although the low end of the ranges are bad enough (and maybe unstoppable now). It’s the psychology and denial issues that are quite interesting. We like to think we are rational and far thinking but really evolution and short term reproductive drive is what influences everything, and in our culture that means status and money – which means jobs, so we can have children, just because that is what we are evolved to do (and then we use our higher brains to post rationalise why we did it).
New Greenland maps show more glaciers at risk
High-resolution charts will inform future ice and sea level forecasts
(just a plot to destroy capitalism, and more important, raise taxes?)
Hey all you educated folks.
I’ve been lurking(mostly) for some time but a question has recently come up that I’m having trouble googling, since all the results invariably point to a trend opposite the one I’m interested in. They are all about “global warming” or something, maybe you’ve heard of it?
Anyway, What I’m Trying to Figure Out is this: We know over geologic history that the Earth goes through long cycles of cooling and heating, and we seem to have a very deep understanding of what causes the heating portion of the cycle. But what causes the cooling portion in the middle half of the environmental sine curve? As I said, googling WITFO is producing rather unhelpful results.
My (simple) understanding: natural earth orbit and sun cycles cool things down a bit, especially in the Northern Hemisphere; permafrost expands a bit there which locks in some CO2; less CO2 in the atmosphere (and maybe some albedo change from more ice) means the earth cools a bit more; permafrost and ice expand a bit more; more CO2 gets taken out (also the natural orbit cooling might still be increasing, but that is a much smaller effect on temperature than the GHGs and can reverse without stopping the runaway cooling it started); repeat until there’s a new equilibrium or things just naturally start going the other way or something like a bunch of volcanoes going off to suddenly add a load of CO2 to the atmosphere. It takes thousands of years, even the volcano option, which is still very short by geological standards but really slow by what’s happening at the moment.
ps We don’t have the volcanoes any more so there’s a theory that if we go into a full snowball earth again (could be 250 million years) we won’t come out until the sun starts expanding in a few billion. We get to the snowball because CO2 is taken out permanently by rock weathering, and I think the theory is that can only happen if the continents line up so there is no land at either pole – the exact mechanism I’ve forgotten, but might be google-able.
Nice explanation George.
I could not have done as well with as few words (and likely could not have done any better with twice the word count).
The 65 north differential in solar input can be as much as 110 watts/m2 depending primarily on the eccentricity of the orbit.
The other important factor is the 26,000 year axial precession. If perihelion coincides with the northern hemisphere winter solstice then warming occurs. The opposite is true of aphelion. This is important because of the differential of land area between northern and southern hemispheres. Large land areas in the north can cool or heat rapidly, either increasing snowfall or decreasing it. With up to 23% difference in solar irradience across the orbit this becomes the largest factor in initiating or removing a glaciation.
Also, as exhibited by the last glaciation event, though it appeared to last for 100,000 years, the glaciers actually grew and receded multiple times in that period before finally receding dramatically to form the warm period called the Holocene that is somewhat recorded historically.
As can be seen from the graph below, there were several major increases in northern insolation during the glacial period between Eemian and Holocene, thus helping to explain the glacial oscillations in that period.
Of course in the very long term, mountain building and the chemistry of mountains determines the temperature and CO2 levels of the planet. See my next comment.
Fool’s Gold or is it what kept our planet alive?
THE POWER OF PYRITE
Without mountains, Earth could be as cold and lifeless as Mars Young ranges in particular—like the Himalayas, Rockies, and Andes—bring crucial minerals from the earth’s mantle to the surface. Calcium is abundant in these minerals, and it frequently binds to carbon dioxide in the air and turns into limestone. Rain, snow and wind dissolve the limestone and send it back to the ocean, where it settles.
Louis Derry, a geochemist from New York’s Cornell University (who was unaffiliated with the study) says this process should have sucked the carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere eons ago. Too much CO2 contributes to global warming, but too little would have made the earth a much colder place, preventing life from developing. “If it weren’t for feedback mechanisms, it would only take 5-10 million years to screw things up,” Derry says. Scientists know of some feedback mechanisms that could have slowed the cooling, but these on their own don’t explain our climate’s long-held stability. Even volcanoes, which belch carbon into the air, would not be enough to offset its relentless sequestration into the deep oceans.
Aren’t we dumping a lot of sulfur into the atmosphere and water? Hmmm. Are we providing another global source of CO2? Ahhh, the Fe-ey of it all.
Either you are a moron or a Troll or maybe both! A quick search in Google Scholar returns about 800,000 results on a first try. Then again maybe your anti science ideology or economic interests don’t jive with what is in those papers so you label what they are saying as unhelpful. Of course it is possible that you are just too ignorant and stupid to understand the content of those papers…
justanta?! Really?! Where do you trolls go, to come up with your ridiculous handles?
If you’re going to post with a nickname, make it a good one, like Fred Magyar. Derivatives could include Dave American, Joey Canadian, Abdulkadir Djiboutian, and so on. ???????
Take your pathetical, puerile emojis and fuck off back to your soft play area where they might appreciate you more you moronic POS.
Cut a little slack. They may or may not be a troll, time will tell, but their points seem reasonable, so far, maybe their googlefu isn’t up to ours. Treat with respect until proven bad, which I hope not.
NAOM
Hi Fred,
In the light of day and me not being nearly so tired, it does seem entirely easy to find the results I was looking for. I think my problem is because I was looking for causes that reverse a warming period, and so my search included terms such as “warming” and “reversal” which was skewing my search results. Although I think George’s plain English explanation probably gave me a quicker and wider basis for understanding than I could have gotten on my own, the question still seems superfluous looking back.
As far as the nickname goes, it is JUst ANother Throw Away.
Anyway, I’ll catch up to you “folks” in the new thread and maybe make a better impression. Seems I only managed to annoy half of you, which is better than my usual average so the signs are promising.
Not always the same answer either, the many cooling periods have many causes; volcanoes, solar cycles, asteroid impacts, tree growth etc. If, after reading the links above, try asking about one cooling event in particular that puzzles you.
NAOM
A short answer is removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by natural processes. See
where the process is described. It happens over 10,000 to 100,000 years.
About 50% of emitted CO2 is sequestered very quickly (1 to 3 years), then about 80% is sequestered after 1000 years, 90% is sequestered after 10,000 years and about 94% after 100,000 years (see table 1 in the paper linked above).
I assume here a 1000 Pg anthropogenic pulse of carbon emissions at year zero followed by no further carbon emissions after year zero.
Before humans these pulses may have been caused by volcanoes, or changes in landforms due to melting of Northern hemisphere ice sheets due to Milankovitch cycles. Also movement of the Indian subcontinent into the Eurasian land mass is thought to have released carbon into the atmosphere so continental drift may have played a role.
Troll or no, it’s hard to say without running the risk of making a serious mistake. As a teacher I was asked thousands of questions that would have elicited a reply along the lines of Goddamn how COULD you be so stupid or ignorant, if the question had come from an adult on the street.
My guess is troll, but there’s no way of being sure. If Justanta is real and serious, making fun of him makes an enemy of him.
We have enemies ENOUGH already.
Half or three quarters of these particular questions came from smart asses, so I gradually stocked my tool box with humorous stock answers that answered them as well as turning the tables.
But as many as half of them came from kids who were asking them in good faith.
The average or typical man or woman who wanders into this forum from off the internet street is no more capable of reading a scientific paper than I am of reading Chinese or ancient Egyptian scripts.
He will be able to recognize the letters, other than the Greek letters, and some of the the numbers,but not scientific notation, etc, but past that……….. he’s as hopeless and helpless as a three year old kid lost in a wilderness .
These observations bring me to my point. I’m working hard trying to find ways to describe the numerous natural processes that impact the climate and the biosphere that will be intelligible to readers who have zero or near zero understanding of the sciences.
The classic great example that works is the greenhouse example, because just about everybody who is apt to read anything I write knows how a car with the windows rolled up heats up in the sun, and they can make the leap in their heads that green house gases in the air are actually invisible insulation / reflectors that trap the heat of the sun. Potential readers will also know about radiating heat back into space at night because they will have noticed that it cools off much faster and to a much greater degree on a still clear night than on a still cloudy night.
You can take this to the bank, as coming from a former professional pedagogue who dealt with the less educated half of the population of this country , professionally, for several years full time, and part time for forty plus years. I’m still trying, part time. You cannot explain science using science, to people who don’t know any science.
You’re in the same situation as the proverbial English speaker who is utterly convinced that his intended audience that speaks only Chinese or Russian or Portuguese will be able to understand English if only he shouts loudly enough and slowly enough.
The audience may actually recognize half the words, but as far as UNDERSTANDING is concerned………… well, you’re pissing into the wind, my friends, from half to three quarters of the time, here in the USA. Maybe a quarter of us know enough to make SOME sense out of George’s two forty three am reply to Justanta.
If I am to communicate effectively with the three quarters, I have solve two pretty tough problems. First off, I have to write in such a way as to attract the attention of people who NEED to read my book and to entertain them so they WILL read it, without pissing them off and driving them into the Trump/ R camp.
And second, I have to find ways to describe the critical natural processes and events that determine climate in ways that are comprehensible to them given what they actually KNOW, ways that they can relate to things that they have EXPERIENCED in their lives.
If we want positive change, politically, well, there’s only one way, in the last analysis, to get it. We have to convince middle of the road voters to vote leftish, and some right wingers to vote middle of the road.
Liberal / progressive types in the past resorted to the court system to get what they wanted, and got it, in large part, but they failed to properly estimate the risks of political backlash. Nick and others are entitled to their opinions as to why the R/Trump crowd controls this country today, just as I’m entitled to mine.
They control it for the reason that they have been winning the culture war for the last few decades, and they are now positioned to put in their sort of judges, including on the Supreme Court, to entrench themselves even further. Sure the Koch brothers media can keep the right wingers stirred up, but they can do so ONLY because the MORES AND VALUES of the foot soldiers on the right wing are such that this stirring WORKS.
It won’t work forever, because the old folks who take these conservative values seriously and are the core of the right wing coalition are dying off already, and they will mostly be gone within another twenty years. Demographic trends, barring bad luck, will result in the leftish liberalish wing gaining control of the country.
But we can’t afford to wait twenty years.
You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar. A LOT MORE.
OFM,
No offense but go back and read his post a little more carefully!
The Troll red flags are quite abundant. Starting with his opening!
Hey all you educated folks.
Or how about this:
I’m having trouble googling, since all the results invariably point to a trend opposite the one I’m interested in. They are all about “global warming” or something, maybe you’ve heard of it?
Maybe you’ve heard of it?!
Give me a fucking break!
Hi Fred. My intention was to be a bit light-hearted and cheeky, but I do see how on a forum where you get so many idiots on a daily basis, that as a new poster it may have been a better idea to establish myself. I’m on my way to the office but when I get in I’ll give a more detailed reply regarding what my googlefu difficulties were and then maybe we can have a discussion?
Ok, I’m more than willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.
Hi Fred,
I said my guess is that he’s a troll. But I take it you may not be as skilled in interpreting the nuances of American colloquial conversation as I am, ahem. His language can be interpreted as light hearted self deprecation, just as I refer to myself as Trumpster.
Yes, the second quote does indicate he is almost for sure a troll, but if YOU read it again, you will find that maybe he IS REAL, and asking a REAL question, and doesn’t know how to search for the information he is looking for…….. information about what brings on the ice ages. If you search using the wrong words, you sure as hell will get ALMOST ALL HITS hits all about anthropogenic or forced warming, and hardly any at all about climate cycles as such, in the first few hundred or thousand links. There’s a real possibility he is real, and telling it like it is, in respect to what links he is getting.
Just today I found out that a kid I know who is twenty four years old and was educated in a pretty decent private school, and who spent two wasted years at a good university didn’t know that when he buys new tires for his car, they don’t come with new wheels. So he thinks he can buy tires and install them himself, because he did manage to put on his spare when he had a flat, by watching a video.
NOBODY ever went broke overestimating the stupidity and or ignorance of the general public.
“Ain’t we got all the fools in town on our side? And ain’t that a big enough majority in any town?” That’s from Huck Finn.
You have my apology, I don’t mean to give YOU any personal grief. .
My larger point still stands. Tens of millions of people do indeed ask questions that we are apt to take the wrong way, leading to our insulting their intelligence, or education , or morals or values.
We have enemies enough.
Some how I fear that the width and depth of the ignorance of the typical man on the street is virtually incomprehensible to people who hang out with other educated people. People are easily offended, and once offended, they tend to close their ears and eyes to any arguments presented by people they have taken a dislike to.
And it’s not as if they are STUPID, it’s that they’re like computers spitting out garbage because they are loaded with garbage data, or not enough data.
That’s all fine and dandy! Though at this point I’m willing to shoot first and ask questions later. I’ll bet that I still hit more trolls than innocent bystanders. Let’s see what justanta has to say next. If he/she is for real then I’ll apologize and see if we can have a real discussion.
Even in Vaudeville they used a hook.
New maps of Greenland’s coastal seafloor and bedrock beneath its massive ice sheet show that two to four times as many coastal glaciers are at risk of accelerated melting as previously thought.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/10/25/daily-202-flake-and-corker-feel-liberated-to-speak-their-minds-that-should-terrify-trump/59efd11030fb045cba000a28/
I have long maintained that the leftish / liberalish political camp will prevail in this country simply because of baked in demographic trends.
The older generations that support the R camp are already dying off pretty fast, and the younger generations coming along are far more liberal, far better educated in respect to the sciences, compared to their elders, and far more able to think for themselves, since they’re no longer confined to getting their news from a few tv networks and a few major papers.
The D’s are perfectly positioned, long term to take over the country, and could do so a LOT sooner if they would back off somewhat on some of the cultural issues that infuriate the hell out of people that vote R.
They’re going to win on those issues LATER,due to demographics, regardless of how much they emphasize them now, to their detriment on election days.
Even in places like Alabama, the young people aren’t half as enthusiastic about their religion as their parents and grand parents.
But if you insult somebody’s parents, you can expect them to give you the straight finger, as sure as the sun rising tomorrow. So they vote R, to a substantial extent, because D’s are so quick to badmouth their cultural values, or those of their PARENTS, even when they themselves last set foot in a church for a funeral or a wedding a year or more ago. Sometimes ten years ago.
The big issue in both parties is really about the money. Especially since citizens united our country has been controlled by the donors, and that’s both parties. It’s the sold out, corrupt establishment vs the populists in both parties. Congress has something like an 11% approval rating because the only things they can pass are intensely unpopular bills written by lobbyists. On the left, populists like Bernie Sanders poll at 65% approval ratings and on the right even a complete idiot like Trump can be elected by being populist / anti-establishment.
The Democratic establishment is fighting populism hard with a recent purge of Ellison supporters and appointment of new oil and gas lobbyists as super delegates. The Republican establishment is starting to revolt against Trump. Hard to say which sides will win, but it looks the the democrats are committed to running loosing establishment candidates. On the right, we might get a right wing populist who isn’t incompetent, and we will head further down the path to fascism.
I am going to disagree with you about the statement of younger people being able to think for themselves more than the older generation.
The key word here, is ‘think’.
When you have grown up with play dates as opposed to outside play time, organized activities without having to deal with boredom and the need to entertain oneself, when every waking moment is screen time/interaction, and school focus is for test outcomes; thinking for oneself is not part of the recipe.
Older folks may have been quicker to assume the news broadcast was truthful, and that politicians were basically serving, but that was put to bed with the death of Walter Cronkite and the Gulf of Tonkin incident.
I taught high school for 17 years. When I was a grade 11 student I read Hemingway, Camus, and Sartre. I became a tradesman and commercial pilot before attending post secondary in my 30s. We listened to Bob Dylan and questioned our scripted futures. With the odd exception (which I can list on one hand), my students up until my retirement 5 years ago, did the bare minimum if I let them get away with it, (which I assuredly did not!). They felt that C quality work deserved a B or A, and would argue for a raise. I had to forcibly confiscate cell phones at the beginning of class. I had parents come in and argue with me to increase their child’s final mark, with 20+ absences in a term. They felt they were entitled, and that my duty was to fulfill their expectations.
Also, the maturity of today’s students is light years behind of that cohort of the ’60s and ’70s, (my generation). Of course, I write this as a rural Canadian who worked from age 13, and not as a suburban city dweller. What I did notice the past 20 years is that even rural kids these days seem to mostly share an urban culture in clothes, outlook, and expectation. Mind you, this doesn’t apply to those few individulas who are brought up to be independent.
Well said Paulo—
As a former teacher also, and still interacting with my younger friends, they are quite clueless.
I will say the Millennials that I interact with (I used to hire them for ranch work) as least know they are screwed. These were mostly creative types (actors, writers, etc) so the sample was biased.
The rot began setting in once liberal ways of thinking overtook the public school system. First all the new teachers had to be card-carrying registered democrats, then (once that was completed over the span of a few decades) liberalism was free to creep into every lesson plan. The result was quite predictable. American public schools turned into factories of mass indoctrination and conformism in which upcoming generations are taught what they should think rather than how they should think. Consequently, western capitalism’s inherent mechanisms of self-preservation and correction have been utterly demolished to make way for the leftist ideals of collectivism and political correctness. With that, America has become adrift with no moral compass.
I leave you with a picture illustrating how our public schools have failed American society.
26 yo here… My schools weren’t that bad in elementary school and middle, but towards the end of high school, that’s when the SJW types started taking over everywhere. That was the real downfall I would say. Once social media was grown when I was a jr and sr in hs, somebody would get offended over just about anything, then go online to start ruining lives about it. Teachers just pretty much had to go along with whatever. The no child left behind testing every year was a joke to but that’s another completely different topic.
Too vs to.
Maybe you missed that day?
It’s lost on me how that image above illustrates public schools failing American society. It looks like a grade one class.
“It’s lost on me how that image above illustrates public schools failing American society.”
They are supposed to be cringing in desks that are several sizes too big for them while the teacher screams at them as the had one word wrong in the national anthem.
NAOM
could do so a LOT sooner if they would back off somewhat on some of the cultural issues that infuriate the hell out of people that vote R.
Mac, could you explain what you mean by this? It makes no sense to me. As far as I can tell, the fury of conservative voters has nothing at all to do with what “liberals” actually say. When I look at Fox News, for instance, I find anecdotal reports of some teacher or professor saying something insulting about something related to conservatism, and it’s clear that one can find such things if one looks hard enough, regardless of the overall tone and content of what liberals say or think. Trump came to prominence in large part by claiming that Obama was born in Kenya, and most republican voters still believe it. So, what does it matter how careful liberals are about what they say? Fox News will report the same stuff regardless.
I suspect, despite what you say about being a cynic about human nature, that you’re really a romantic at heart – you’d like to believe that voters will do the right thing, given half a chance. And…I think you’re right! But…they’re not getting good information, so they’re not getting that chance. And as long as that’s true, we have a problem that won’t be fixed by better electoral tactics on the part of Democrats, or more politeness on the part of liberals (though, of course, politeness is always constructive).
Trump came to prominence in large part by claiming that Obama was born in Kenya, and most republican voters still believe it.
Not really!
You should watch this talk by Robert Reich, he has a pretty good feel for the pulse of the American electorate. BTW, It was already posted by Gone Fishing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm9SUffhQhE
Robert Reich ‘Preparing Our Economy for the Impact of Automation AI’ – Talks at Google
I don’t think he has every minor detail right. But given he has spent a very considerable part of his adult life in politics in Washington. He has a pretty darn good grasp of the big picture.
Bigger picture:
https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/rtx3hrv2-e1508921887644.jpg?quality=80&strip=all&w=1600
Hmm. Seen a transcript?
He’s arguing that trump voters are those whose median incomes are falling, yes?
That’s not inconsistent with what I said. Lot’s of people could have represented those voters, but they chose Trump. One big reason was his willingness to lie to voters, especially in ways calculated to play on their fears and angers and focus those fears and angers on convenient scapegoats.
Claiming that Obama stole the election, and was really an African and foreigner, was one of those lies.
Hi Nick,
It may take a while to get what I’m talking about across, please bear with me. What’s obvious to me seems to be be Greek to people who lack my perspective, having grown up in a very conservative, religious culture, leaving it, living in a university / city bohemian environment for ten years or so hanging out as a special grad student, marrying a hot young blossom Jewish woman from NYC, and then coming back to my same childhood society, which is still much the same in some respects.
Strange as it sounds today, even to ME, I once had shoulder length hair, a corncob in my pocket stuffed tight with high octane wacky baccy, and a chain around my neck with a peace symbol on it, and I even marched in some anti nuclear parades .
So .. some points to ponder. SERIOUSLY.
I post here as a COACH, mostly, politically, letting the chips fall where they may, but doing my best to indicate what the liberalish / leftish political wing, meaning the D party, more or less, should be doing to WIN ELECTIONS.
Now it’s pretty goddamned obvious to me that not even one person out of a dozen, or three dozen, of all the hundreds I have met and talked to since the sixties, who grew up in a home where there were books, educated parents, respect for knowledge, where professionals such as doctors and engineers were LOOKED UP TO, etc, and where above all there was some MONEY for the better things, etc, ….. well, that sort of people can no better understand what working class conservative cultural life is REALLY like, than as one of my old professors put it, a man can REALLY understand what it’s LIKE to have a BABY. She had a couple, and she held a full professorship at my university, so I guess she knew what she was talking about.
Most of us have had to WORK at getting along with a lover or spouse who for one reason or another has some far different values, and hot buttons different from our own. Pretend for a minute you are a guy, which I presume you are, and that you are living with a woman who has some ISSUES with you, for one reason or another . If you insist on picking on her hot buttons, you WILL WIND UP SLEEPING ON THE FUCKING SOFA , rather than in bed with her, fucking. Ya get it, I ‘m just about dead sure, lol. 😉
So …… listen carefully, I’m talking as your COACH, rather than as your teammate, or your opponent. You want to make use of the strengths of your team, and avoid doing things that energize and motivate your opposition team. Any coach will tell you that making fun of an upcoming opponent is a good way to fire them up so that they may just upset your supposedly superior team right ?
Now suppose you are looking at the issue of gay and lesbian rights. Do you have the faintest reason to believe that the VAST majority of gays and lesbians aren’t going to vote D, without even considering voting R for a SECOND? So the gay and lesbian voters are ON BOARD, you do NOT need to be devoting much time or energy catering to them. This is simple reality.
You ought to be putting MORE of your time and energy toward convincing the larger, more general and diverse voting blocks to vote D, because that’s how you can win MORE total votes. DO NOT FORGET that gays and lesbians have very much the same sort of problems as working class red neck religious conservatives who don’t know doo doo from apple butter about much of anything outside their own personal experiences.
These right wingers SHARE the employment problem, the health care problem, the school problem, the crime problem, the cost of living problem …. with gays and lesbians …… ya get it?
Now I have YET to meet a true blue city girl who grew up in a well to do liberal environment and majored in art or English or whatever, such as my second wife, my hot young Jewish woman, who has EVER really UNDERSTOOD that old country people are just as serious about their right to own guns as THEY are about the right to have an abortion.Well, my princess finally came to understand this, and to be relaxed in a home with guns on the walls, but this took a LONG time. IMMERSION time. She even learned to shoot.
Ninety percent of all the women I have ever talked to about abortions insist on calling it their right to choose, and they are no more interested , or even CAPABLE, of understanding that people from my childhood background believe abortion is MURDER, than my hound is capable of doing arithmetic.
They don’t WANT to understand this, so they DON’T, just as I believe to the bottom of my heart that if they get their way, the D establishment will eventually come for my guns. Maybe they won’t, but I don’t want to BELIEVE THAT.
Do you really believe any liberal young woman or older woman who is a life long D will ever vote R if the D party backs off on EMPHASIZING this right to choose / right to life issue? No way in hell, they are ON BOARD, and will stay on board , and vote D as reliably as the sun coming up.
The resources devoted by the D party to this issue would be better spent by diverting most of them to more general issues, such as public health.
And there are WAYS to talk to conservatives that resonate with them, that don’t irritate them and piss them off. I have posted many many comments about ways I do this myself, some of them as recently as this last week, about how advertisers use freedom of the press to teach THEIR OWN CHILDREN to eat junk food, to BEG for junk food, remember that? It RESONATES with a conservative with brains enough to see that fat people get sick oftener and die younger than thin people, that smokers get sick oftener and die younger than non smokers, etc.
Get over the nose in the air attitude, which is amply demonstrated by your own words.
” As far as I can tell, the fury of conservative voters has nothing at all to do with what “liberals” actually say. ”
All I can say is that sort of statement demonstrates a near total lack of understanding, a near total lack of ability to put yourself in the other person’s shoes.
This does NOT mean however that I’m saying a typical conservative voter is RIGHT, on the facts, or that his or her mores and values are superior to yours. They’re just DIFFERENT, in the sense that I’m trying to explain my ideas and talk to you as a COACH.
I don’t LIKE everything about the overall stereotypical liberal agenda, although I believe in MOST of it. And when I’m conflicted, as in respect to my Second Amendment rights and beliefs, well, I HAVE to come down on the side of the D’s because I’m above all a realist, and any realist with enough brains to know bullshit from apple butter knows that the ENVIRONMENT is THE ISSUE , the ONE issue that overrides and trumps all other issues combined. (This is excepting short term survival, because there IS no long term, if we don’t survive the short term. On the other hand, if we don’t get the environmental issue right, there isn’t going to BE any long term for most of us. )
And I understand demographics, and the way our society is changing, and so I know that eventually the Second Amendment will be either repealed or so severely curtailed that it will be damned hard to own a bb gun, lol.
You naturally but unfortunately expect other people who lack your obviously broad and deep knowledge to think like you do, or accept your guidance, but the minds of naked apes just don’t work that way.
Consider subsidized health care. The reality PERCEIVED by one of my neighbors, a real true case, is that when he went to the hospital for heart problems, he was billed fifty grand, and had to pay it, out of pocket, or else the debt collectors would come take his farm. Now this guy worked half a day, every day, as the old joke goes, twelve hours, for forty or more years, starting with nothing, to save and scrimp and put back every fucking DIME into that farm.
And then ( his opinion, not mine, I think like a biologist in this situation, and a biologist thinks a tick on a dog’s back is just as worthy of life as the dog, ya see, and no more to be faulted for sucking the dog’s blood than the dog is for eating a momma rabbit’s babies) as HE sees it, another neighbor who has pissed away his money on rent and nice cars and meals out and is basically broke and has no assets worth seizing goes to the same hospital and gets his bill written off.
Now do you begin to get just a GLIMMER of why the ant HATES the fucking grasshopper and believes that the goal of socialized medicine aka single payer is to force him to pay his own bills as WELL as his deadbeat ( his opinion, not mine in this context) neighbors? And WHY he has nothing but contempt for anybody who proposes single payer?
Now of course you will say that his problem is that he doesn’t realize that his own living standard will go UP , rather than down, with single payer. I AGREE, but that’s not my point. MY point is to try to get across what HE believes about subsidies, and the government forcing him to pay more than his own fair share.
He believes he NEEDS some or all of the nasty pesticides that have been outlawed, but he doesn’t, not really, for reasons I have explained at length her in this forum at times. His competitive position will be as good WITHOUT them as with them, so long as NOBODY is allowed to use them anymore. Maybe even better.
But FACTS don’t matter in this context, what MATTERS is what he believes, and he believes environmentalists are out to make it impossible for him to make a living, and he knows that the environmental camp is allied to the D camp, so he votes R for these reasons.
I’m well into writing a book about all this stuff, but it’s turning out to be quite a time consuming project, and I’ m never quite satisfied with anything, and always rewriting, trying to do a better job. It may never be finished at the rate I’m going, lol.
Most elections in this country are won or lost by only a few percentage points.
If the D’s get their shit together, they can win enough MORE middle of the road voters and even some right wingers over, and get into control again.
” As far as I can tell, the fury of conservative voters has nothing at all to do with what “liberals” actually say. ” All I can say is that sort of statement demonstrates a near total lack of understanding, a near total lack of ability to put yourself in the other person’s shoes.
No, Mac, I just didn’t succeed in communicating my question.
Here’s my question (in different words – perhaps I’ll succeed this time):
In my opinion, conservative media will create hot button issues for their audience. They’ll cherry-pick anecdotal comments by some isolated professor or congress-critter, or…they’ll just make stuff up. Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Hannity and so forth will find things that make it look like “liberals” are disrespectful of conservatives, whatever “liberals” actually say or think.
I look at Fox News, and that’s what I see. I don’t think what “liberals” say about conservatives has much to do with how Fox News will portray what “liberals” have to say.
In the Land of Lies and Make Believe the Truth is an outcast.
Back atcha Nick,
There is certainly a substantial element of truth in your assertions about right winger media cherry picking some liberals to fire up the conservative base.
But you STILL DON’T GET IT. If these things weren’t being said often enough by enough liberals……. this cherry picking wouldn’t work.
Look, I don’t want to accuse YOU of stupidity the way I do HB.
But consider his blaming HRC’s email problems on conservatives and the FBI, lol. SHE’s the person who CREATED the secret email system.SHE’s the person who got her ass caught with it. SHE DID IT.
Whether it was Russians, or Assange, or a pissed off insider, or who ever, broke the news, is entirely irrelevant to the fact that SHE is the one who did it.
You are refusing to believe or accept the incontestable fact ( imo) that when SOME liberals say these sort of things, conservatives take the saying of them as being representative of liberals COLLECTIVELY.
Now whether this is actually the case, that liberals collectively want to collect all the guns, or force every nickel and dime businessman to do business that’s against his heartfelt values, or take away the fertilizers and pesticides that enable me to farm successfully, or whatever, is IRRELEVANT to my point, in context.
Some of the more intelligent and best informed scientifically informed members of this forum habitually make fun of conservatives and religious people. Now when such a person happens across this forum, he sees these comments, and since these people are invariably liberals, well he just perfectly naturally associates all liberals with this sort of talk and values. Values of his ENEMIES.
Look, you are a pretty smart fellow, whereas I may be only a fart smeller, but you tend to make things more complicated than they are.
Things are a LOT simpler than you make them out to be. Not very many people make their personal and cultural decisions on the basis of deep thinking. They make them on the basis of allying themselves with people who think the way they do and share their values. This is roughly as true of a typical university educated liberal as it is of the most ignorant backwoods hillbilly.
If you think a particular person is upstanding and worthy of admiration, you just naturally assume that his FRIENDS and PEERS are that same sort , because cliche or no, birds of a feather really do flock together.
If you think he’s a clown, or less than a worthy person, it’s perfectly natural to assume his friends , his peers, the people he IDENTIFIES with, are similarly clowns or less than worthy people.
I’m painting with a broad brush, very fast.
The stereotypical liberal who is afraid of guns, and I have met LOTS of them, who knows next to nothing about the culture of people who own guns, as part of their heritage, tends to believe the worst about guns and gun owners, because he WANTS to believe the worst.
Ditto, my typical neighbor believes that the Democrat/ liberal establishment’s long term plan is to come into his home, and confiscate his guns, because he WANTS to believe that. And while you may deny this possibility, he has reason enough to believe it, because the typical liberal who comments on it makes it PERFECTLY clear that he wants this country to be a place where only cops and soldiers have guns, with maybe a few rare exceptions, such as are made in most Western European countries.
AND the conservative with guns, thinking these thoughts, concludes that these exceptions are merely camouflage, intended to lead him to thinking the liberal establishment REALLY does want his grandfathers pistol, or the shotgun he has for home defense, or to go rabbit hunting, etc, collected and crushed for scrap metal.
This whole thing boils down to the old observation of give’em an inch, and they’ll want a mile, over and over, for each inch you give up, and it applies BOTH WAYS, culturally.
Don’t forget I’m not trying to argue what is RIGHT , or WRONG, morally, or ethically, about guns, or abortions, or whatever.
I’m just trying to get liberals and big D democrats to face up to the fact that they have lost control of the country, and that if they want to get back into control again, they need to be doing some heavy duty thinking about what they emphasize and what they don’t, politically,because if they don’t win back at least the number of voters they have lost to the right wing on these issues, they will STAY in the doghouse for quite a while yet.
Now demographic trends will solve the gun problem, if you see guns as a problem, within another generation, or two at the most, because the hard core of the people who are very comfortable with and used to guns and own them as casually as you own a family photo album or books, will be dead and gone, and the urbanites will so vastly outnumber the remaining younger country people that the collection process will proceed apace.
I maintain that the overriding issue of our times , the issue that trumps all other issues COMBINED, is the environmental issue. If we don’t get our shit together on the environment, collectively, as a country and as a species, all of our other current day problems will solve themselves, because life as we know it will cease to exist.
And the D’s are infinitely better positioned in the USA to deal with our environmental problems than the R’s, especially if the younger generation, the Sanders generation, gains control of the D party soon. The establishment D party is not a whole lot better than what I accuse it of being on a regular basis……….. the Republican Lite party, owned and operated by the banksters and giant corporations and so forth.
“Look, I don’t want to accuse YOU of stupidity the way I do HB”
“SHE’s the person who CREATED the secret email system”
Hey Rube, how the fuck does someone have a secret account with over 30,000 emails ? Just because HRC never sent you an email, doesn’t make it secret.
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster(OFM) is a Russian Republican Rube FoxNews watcher.
We all want to see your fake “hot” second wife who put you on the couch with your gun in your little palm. Let’s see your Melania Trumpster wedding picture.
And by the way, where is the stupid book you’ve been working on for the last 10 years? or is it just more fake Trumpster.
Mrs. Trumpster #2
Yair . . . .
This statement is absolutely, utterly, totally incorrect in the Australian context . . . .
“far better educated in respect to the sciences, compared to their elders”
Sure there are some bright kids who have soaked up some knowledge but, for the most part, young ‘uns are gormless, clueless, and, unless it relates to sport or reality tv they don’t even want to know . . . if there is a power outage most of them can’t give change.
On top of that (in the past) I have been trying to give work experience to fourteen and fifteen year olds who lacked the co-ordination and dexterity to one handed turn the worm of an adjustable wrench or turn a screw one handed with a normal hand screw driver . . . I was told, “no one does that shit any more, where’s the power driver?”
Interesting overview of Russian bots interfering with American politics.
http://dashboard.securingdemocracy.org/
One More Wing Pawn myth exposed:
Higher CO2 levels have significant negative effects on the nutritional value of wheat grains.
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/7/2/32
Here’s the abstract.
Abstract
Elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) stimulates wheat grain yield, but simultaneously reduces protein/nitrogen (N) concentration. Also, other essential nutrients are subject to change. This study is a synthesis of wheat experiments with eCO2, estimating the effects on N, minerals (B, Ca, Cd, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, P, S, Zn), and starch. The analysis was performed by (i) deriving response functions to assess the gradual change in element concentration with increasing CO2 concentration, (ii) meta-analysis to test the average magnitude and significance of observed effects, and (iii) relating CO2 effects on minerals to effects on N and grain yield. Responses ranged from zero to strong negative effects of eCO2 on mineral concentration, with the largest reductions for the nutritionally important elements of N, Fe, S, Zn, and Mg. Together with the positive but small and non-significant effect on starch concentration, the large variation in effects suggests that CO2-induced responses cannot be explained only by a simple dilution model. To explain the observed pattern, uptake and transport mechanisms may have to be considered, along with the link of different elements to N uptake. Our study shows that eCO2 has a significant effect on wheat grain stoichiometry, with implications for human nutrition in a world of rising CO2.
There is substantial reason for concern, although at this time with CO2 levels what they are today, it’s not a serious problem…… SO FAR.
Later on……. It could be a problem.
Apparently the C-13 content of methane is lower indicating that the non-fossil sources are adding a significant amount to the atmosphere. Buckle up friends, could be rough ahead.
Global methane levels hitting new highs
http://earthsky.org/earth/global-methane-levels-hitting-new-highs
For some strange reason I’ve been interested in methane since the days we used to do surveys in the Arctic and (methane) clathrate layers complicated seismic interpretation.
METHANE SEEPS OUT AS ARCTIC PERMAFROST STARTS TO RESEMBLE SWISS CHEESE
“Global warming may be unleashing new sources of heat-trapping methane from layers of oil and gas that have been buried deep beneath Arctic permafrost for millennia. As the Earth’s frozen crust thaws, some of that gas appears to be finding new paths to the surface through permafrost that’s starting to resemble Swiss cheese in some areas….”
“This is another methane source that has not been included so much in the models,” said the study’s lead author, Katrin Kohnert, a climate scientist at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, Germany. “If, in other regions, permafrost becomes discontinuous, more areas will contribute geologic methane.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072017/arctic-permafrost-melting-methane-emissions-geologic-sources-study
Since the study only covered two years, it doesn’t show long-term trends, but it makes a strong argument that there is significant methane escaping from trapped layers of oil and gas, Schuur said.
The obvious solution is to extract that oil and gas as fast as possible, burn it, and release the much less powerful greenhouse gas CO2 instead of all that methane. Win, Win! /sarc
All we need is space borne reflector sheets to orbit the earth and shade it. I figure a 20 percent reduction might be enough to chill things down and we could really boost the economy by doing it.
Then the snow plow jobs would increase, even in Florida. 🙂
Great article. Based squarely in the scientific realm but accessible to the layperson.
ARCTIC SEA ICE MAY BE DECLINING FASTER THAN EXPECTED
Arctic sea ice may be thinning faster than predicted because salty snow on the surface of the ice skews the accuracy of satellite measurements, a new study from the University of Calgary. The report from the university’s Cryosphere Climate Research Group published in the academic journal Geophysical Research Letters found satellite estimates for thickness of seasonal sea ice have been overestimated by up to 25 percent. That means the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free much sooner than some scientific predictions, which forecast sea ice will first disappear completely during summer months between 2040 and 2050.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-arctic-research/arctic-sea-ice-may-be-declining-faster-than-expected-study-idUSKBN1CT2JD
It is getting colder!
Uh Oh!
Wanna know why we have a drug crisis?
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a12775932/sackler-family-oxycontin/
As much as any other reason, it’s because both major political party’s are owned and operated as subsidiary property of people like the Sackler family, or worse.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/10/25/what-the-trump-dossier-says-and-what-it-doesnt/?utm_term=.b6f2cbabe8f8
This response is targeted at the Trumpster comment on opioid supply-
I disagree. Drug use is about demand, not the supply.
Prohibition failed because the demand kept up.
The ‘drug war’ can’t be won by going after supply.
I disagree with your disagreement. According to the article, the Sick Sacklers did plenty to create the demand, and many doctors are still doing plenty to continue the same. I will agree that it’s not at all a one-sided problem, and there are lots of factors that help to create a demand for drugs.
Hi Hickory,
The demand is certainly there. The question can be rephrased as to WHY demand has exploded in recent times.
If you re read the article with this question in mind, you will see that demand has been DELIBERATELY CREATED by the owners of the company that above all others is the supplier of the drugs involved.
Controlling the supply is not the be all and end all, it won’t solve the problem by any means. But it sure as hell will help a lot, especially in terms of stopping it from growing.
Nothing pisses me off worse than self serving lying hypocrisy for profit. The pharma industry is one of the very worst sellers of misery and death for profit.
And this particular family goes around making itself out to be a pillar of society to deflect criticism.
They’re buzzards in swan camo. I apologize to any buzzards in the audience. Buzzards mostly don’t go eat their dinner ALIVE. They have the good grace to wait for it to die on its own.
We know people start smoking and drinking in large part because alcohol and tobacco are advertised, and have had a great deal of success in reducing ( from what MIGHT HAVE BEEN OTHERWISE ) levels of smoking and drinking by regulating advertising and marketing of these two killers.
The pharma industry has discovered ways to circumvent the customary laws rules against methods of stoking demand for dangerous products, pushing them via salesmen to doctors, bribery to doctors and pharmacists, ads in medical journals, capture of regulatory agencies, bribery of politicians, etc.
One reason I’m so down on the D’s is that they are about as bad as the R’s in allowing this sort of thing to continue. They’re not AS BAD, but they’re still guilty as hell.
There’s real hope for the D’s doing the RIGHT THINGS, to a substantially greater extent, if the Sanders camp gains more influence in the D party.
It seems to me that there’s little difference between doctors, drug companies, mechanics and realtors: they all try to uphold a certain level of ethics, and they all fail a great deal of the time.
The difference is that we expect more from people who are supposed heal us. If someone charges us for an air filter and fails to install it in our car, the harm is limited. If they charge us for a lifesaving drug, and give us something that is addicting or has major side effects, the harm is tragic.
I seem to remember reading something o a web site related to “alternative” medicine that, modern western medical education was heavily influenced by early owners of pharmaceutical drugs in an effort to get doctors that would prioritize the use of drugs over alternative remedies. The following link more or less sums up the idea:
The True History of Deceit Within the Rise of “Western Medicine”
It might seem like a bit of a crackpot conspiracy theory but, the way things are at the moment lends some credibility to the idea IMO. How else does one explain the paucity of knowledge amongst the general medical profession about the effective use of vitamin C, for example. Look up Fred R. Klenner, a medical doctor who did some work with vitamin C back in the 1930-40s and published his findings in a Clinical Guide to the Use of Vitamin C. Most people including the vast majority of MDs have never heard of Klenner. Why? It would certainly not suit the pharmaceutical industry for Klenners finding to be widely known.
There’s also the story of one Abram Hoffer and his work with niacin (vitamin B-3) on patients with mental issues like schizophrenia. I know someone who has been told she will have to take a certain prescription for the rest of her life and it ain’t cheap. That seems like a very cozy arrangement to me!
Today’s episode of same game, different name.
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/americas-heroin-epidemic/billionaire-charged-bribing-doctors-prescribe-opioids-n814686
I’m not defending suppliers, however
-if it wasn’t for demand the thousands who grow weed in the national forests wouldn’t have a market
-if it wasn’t for demand the beheadings in Latin America (Narco War) would be unfunded
-if it wasn’t for demand the ER’s around the country wouldn’t be flooded with people demanded their opiates
Wait a minute now! We were talking about the opioid epidemic, not pot. I don’t know for sure that you’re a scientist, but you are in the midst of several here (which doesn’t include me, for sure) , so I assume you do know the vast difference in the effects on the human body/brain between opioids and pot. So, let’s be sure to note the difference.
That said, I’m not saying it’s all the suppliers fault either, but those thousands of doctors who let the drug reps/pharma guys buy them into ignoring what they should have known was harmful, indeed, were required to study as part of their job qualifications, bear a significant share of blame. Now, after this “opioid emergency” plays out, in about 5 years or less, let’s compare the number of those “legal dope dealers” in jail or prison with the millions of lower-class (my class) pot-smokers who were caught with a joint in their pocket and were jailed and otherwise entangled in our fucked-up, pay-me-monthly-probation scheme.
Have you read anything about our government’s complicity in the higher levels of the dope business internationally? It’s really not a secret, and although I can’t personally verify the truth of the reports I’ve read, I also can’t refute them. When good old Uncle Sam wants to topple the government of a small foreign country, and install it’s own type of thug, it seems the rules that apply to us po’ folk don’t apply.
Now, to tie this to my other reply on the Otto trucking idea, why don’t we go ahead and get rid of another few million jobs that us lower-class folks have, along with those many millions already eliminated (whether offshored or automated), and lets see what happens when people get to sit on their asses all day and remember when they used to get up and go to work, then come home tired but satisfied that they did their part that day.
Yeah, I think Joe Bageant made some good observations about the real battle being a class thing, and not a racial thing.
‘Nuff of my out-in-left-field thinking.
I agree that it’s a class thing.
But…to what extent do working people understand that?? It seems that most have had their anger diverted towards scapegoats: immigrants, foreigners, women, blacks, government employees, “elite intellectuals”, etc., etc.
Homerun Nick! Myself and about 2 other blue-collar stiffs seem to comprise the group that understand that. The others yelled “Go Trump, you da man!” I associate almost entirely with my own socio-economic group, and quite often when at gatherings of same, some guy I’ve just met, while admiring antique trucks or tractors, or listening to bluegrass music, will throw out an opening political remark about how Trump is trying to help us out if them damn Democrats will just let him do what he wants to do. I’m not much for big political discussions while I’m trying to enjoy myself, or any other time really, so lots of times I just ask how many billionaires do they know who ever gave a shit if they made a livable wage, or had food on their table, and that’s usually the end of that.
They usually just look at me kinda funny and drop it.
Actually I would drop “elite intellectuals” from your list of scapegoats though. Most of us po’ trash don’t use 4-syllable words, and seriously, I’m not sure that most of us realize that there is an elite intellectual class or sub-class. I lay the blame for that partly on our piss-poor public school systems, and partly on the parents, and it’s just a repeating cycle, a hard one to break. We’ve gotten some beautiful new schools in my area in the last decade or so, but the kids are still passing through mostly half-educated.
It’s called homework. I taught elementary school for 3 years after a long stint at high school; ( a rural school so I could work where I lived. All subjects included, grades 4-6).
The most common note I sent home was:
“________ does not know her times tables. This has to be drilled at home, WITHOUT a calculator. They have to be memorized at least to 12X12. There is no time to do this at school. It has to be practiced at home, like it always has been done”.
I supplied flash cards and drills in game format. I bought them and gave them away.
At conference time the message was a little different: “________ mentioned that she wants to go into nursing. (one example). In order to do this ________will have to obtain a degree, a science degree. It requires advanced math for placement. _______ still does not know her times tables. If she does not learn her times tables, she will not understand fractions. She also will struggle with algebra. If she connot do those basics she will not be able to go into sciences. She will not be admitted into a nursing program”.
Last year I met a buddy for breakfast at a chain restaurant. The food was the shits. ______was my waitress. Undoubtably, her parents will say it is the school system’s fault.
Yes, I agree. As my post noted, partly schools fault, partly parents fault. I most definitely agree about the homework, which is clearly the parents responsibility. My mother taught me to read before I ever went to school. Of course it helped that I was forever pestering her to read my 2 years older sisters books to me. Along with anything else that had a picture that looked interesting to me.
Same with arithmetic. When a cashier can’t make change without a machine doing it for her/him/it, that’s pretty sad in my opinion.
A major reason that children and parents are not as functional as in the past is that they are being starved of good nutrition. Add the poor eating choices to the fact that modern agriculture is building bigger yet low mineral content plants and we have a fat but nutritionally starved population.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/soil-depletion-and-nutrition-loss/
There’s zero doubt in my mind that while pot has been the cause of a few people dying, as the result of disputes among suppliers and dealers, and as the result of automobile accidents, etc, pot is as benign as a beagle puppy compared to a slavering raging pit bull, in comparison to BEER.
You can’t legislate morality.Alcohol prohibition enabled organized crime to grow up in this country. There’s zero reason why I shouldn’t be allowed to grow and sell pot just like beer is manufactured and sold, except stupidity on the part of the public and rent seeking on the part of people who manage to get in early in the legalization process.
Demand can be created, and HAS BEEN CREATED, for soft drinks, for beer, for cigarettes, flashy cars, etc, by MARKETING these products in ways deliberately designed to increase sales.
Every sonofabitch involved in PUSHING the sale of habit forming drugs for the sake of his bottom line ought to be in jail.
Now that these people have managed to supply these drugs in such vast quantities that diverting them to the black market is easy and extremely profitable, we not only have the addiction problem, we have the heartbreaking problem of a million people, several million people, being in extreme pain that are no longer able to get these drugs, because THEY don’t know how to find a black market supplier, and their physicians are AFRAID to prescribe them.
I’ve actually given some thought , personally, to going looking for a connection, and I, being an old hippie, and an old hillbilly of the sort that feels lopsided without a pistol to counterbalance my wallet, DO know how. WHY?
Because I’m literally scared that maybe I, or somebody extremely important to me, won’t be able to get a prescription for such painkillers and may suffer horribly as the result. I’ve watched people die in agony from pain, and know more than a couple, three at least, who committed suicide mostly for that reason.
My best friend who died about four years ago now suffered horribly from pain, and wasn’t able to get anything good enough to really control it until the last three or four weeks out of his last year, when his doctors were able to put themselves TOTALLY in the clear by being able to justify it by saying he had no more than another thirty days to live.
His chances of living more than that year were pretty close to zero, given that he had pancreatic cancer that had spread to his liver. I offered to find him something, but being afflicted with male stupidity, he chose to tough it out.
Just when I thought the advent of electric transport might lead to a quieter world, along comes the burrito delivery drones:
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/23/remote-burrito-delivery-offer-alphabets-project-wing/
Can’t say that I’m looking forward to that kind of buzz.
Maybe they’ll make enough noise that we can shoot’em down with shotguns loaded with trap loads with reduced powder charges, lol. Or maybe even slingshots.
Communities have long standing and thoroughly established authority in law to regulate the level of noise generated by commercial activities.
So hopefully delivery drones won’t get to be too big a problem, in terms of noise.
I just had a great idea. Somebody can run with it. Install a little homing signal device at each house that wants delivery by drone, to make it easier for the drone to deposit its load quicker and easier, and maybe even from high altitude. If a burrito , or a bottle of pills, is well padded, it could be dropped from as much as two or three hundred feet up, directly above the homing point, without damaging it, lol. The potential is certainly there. Maybe I can get rich manufacturing miniature parachutes that can guide themselves to the homing device, so long as there’s no significant wind.
Why not hijack them and use them for your own purposes? But watch out for the Mother Drone, it’s armed and angry! 🙂
Amazon Will Now Deliver Inside Your Home — And Record the Whole Thing
by Alyssa Newcomb
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/amazon-will-now-deliver-inside-your-home-record-whole-thing-n814276?cid=public-rss_20171026
Amazon wants to unlock your front door and deliver your packages when you’re not home.
In the fight against holiday season porch pirates, Amazon is launching a new delivery system that allows its couriers to leave packages inside your house or apartment. The entire process is done without a key or code — and the entire delivery is recorded on a camera that uploads to the cloud.
“I think it goes to show that Amazon is thinking very holistically about its products and services and how it ties all of its investments together in the smart home and retail,” Geoff Blaber, an analyst at CCS Insight, told NBC News.
But it won’t come cheap. Prime Members in the 37 cities where it’s launching will first have to order the $250 Amazon Key In-Home Kit, which includes Amazon’s new Cloud Cam and a compatible smart lock.
The driver is let into your home after Amazon verifies he or she is at the right address at the intended time. Once that’s complete, the door unlocks and the Cloud Cam starts recording.
So, let me get this straight. I buy, install and maintain, at my expense, a corporate surveillance device inside my house so that they can monitor the comings and goings through my front door.
You can’t make this stuff up. Well, maybe you can: Brave New World. Will they deliver Soma?
I knew Fatter, shorter, dumber, but things are getting worse—
Americans Are Retiring Later, Dying Sooner and Sicker In-Between
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-23/americans-are-retiring-later-dying-sooner-and-sicker-in-between
Is this happening in other developed nations?
Same in the UK, the official figures out for Scotland show it and it’s expected to be the same once they are issued for England and Wales. Almost exactly as predicted by he Limits to Growth standard run, although that is for world population. I think the main feedbacks in that model is the reduction in available excess resources combined with lower per capita production in an older population, that can show up in reduced medical spending (either direct personal or via taxation), poorer diet, more stress etc. and hence falling life expectancy.
Increased sedentary lifestyle, poor food choices and low mineral content vegetables, combined with increased environmental toxins.
My generation got all the blessings, maxed out pollution (could see the air), the new farming practices with lots of chemicals added, processed food, more sedentary lifestyles, etc. I expect there to be a large blip in short lifespans which may or may not continue. Also add in the drugstore full of pharmaceuticals given to the elderly to “cure” them when it mostly makes them sicker. The particulate air pollution never really stopped.
We also had that large blip in radioactivity from all the surface nuclear tests.
We’re bringing these public and personal health troubles on ourselves, collectively and individually, mostly as the result of ignorance but also in large part from a lack of clear thinking.
There ARE ways that you can communicate with right wingers, and find common ground, and make common cause with them. The first rule is to refrain from insulting them, UNNECESSARILY, in doing so.
Now here’s a method that works VERY well, for me, in that it’s part of my tool kit that’s switched a dozen or more hard core righties into middle of the roaders who even vote leftie sometimes.
There’s a HUGE difference between supporting a law, custom, or policy as a matter of principle, and supporting it as a matter of practical reality.
At our informal little “country club” where anywhere from four or five guys to a dozen (retired mostly, some who work come on slow days ) show up at my next door neighbor’s farm shop every afternoon to tell lies and enjoy a few brews , we discuss everything from astronomy to zucchini. When the time is right, I steer the conversation this way.
Consider the typical libertarian / liberal/ conservative ( YES, this DOES apply to all three camps ) argument that we should be able to do as we please, as individuals, without interference from the guv’mint, so long as we are not harming other people. Just about everybody agrees that we should be allowed to eat what we please, etc, as a matter of law and moral principle, so long as we are not harming other people.
But we fail to realize that what’s good in principle can be VERY bad in practice, because we naked apes are creatures of habit, and our habits are very easily manipulated by people in the advertising industry. The FOOD industry ( as opposed to actual farmer / producers of food who are guilty of doing this to only a minor extent ) has hired the ad industry to teach us to eat junk food, and we have learned our lessons VERY well indeed. The entertainment industry likewise has taught us to recline on the sofa and watch people play ball rather than playing ball, or at least croquet, lol. We can’t even be bothered to change gears in a car anymore, or roll the windows up and down, lol.
Now all this advertising is FINE with my redneck conservative friends and acquaintances, because they say well, nobody is MAKING me eat fast food, it’s MY CHOICE. And what about freedom of the press, and so on?
I ask them if they believe all that advertising WORKS. Of course it does, and they’re quick to point out that nobody would be paying for it, otherwise.
Then I ask if eating junk food DOES make you get fat and sick younger and die earlier? The ones who can and do think a little ( Most of them can and do think a LOT more than the people who usually make fun of them would ever guess ) say yes, on average, eating junk food makes you fat, makes you sick, and shortens your life. The dumb ones don’t say anything, because the thought has never crossed their minds. At about this point, the smarter ones see the trap I am setting for them.
Do you think we are paying too much in taxes, and that maybe the guv’mint is running too many things, such as medicare and Social Security, etc? They have no choice but to say yes.
Fourth, suppose I’m a teacher, and I’m teaching your kids things that you KNOW are WRONG, and bad for your kids, and for your community and your country?
What should you do about it? The usual answers start with firing me, and extend to throwing me in jail, or worse.
So…… the last question…… Should Ronald McDonald be ALLOWED to teach your kids to eat junk food, by advertising it day after day, year in and year out, where they see these ads, to the point they BEG you to take them there for a dose of slow poison? Would you allow ME to do that to your kids? To teach them to smoke for instance, right fucking in front of you ?
Do you why McDonald’s pays out good hard cash to help low income parents visit their kids in hospitals? HINT….. It’s mostly because it keeps you from thinking about why so many kids are going to be hospitalized later due to diseases such as diabetes, which we KNOW are closely associated with eating junk food.
At this point, the less intelligent ones get mad and switch the subject, or start calling me names, such as commie panty wearing liberal , lol. The smarter ones get sort of quiet, and you can see their mental gears at work. They’ve just moved incrementally a small but significant distance away from the right wing and towards the middle, in terms of understanding how and why we need government to regulate our lives in some respects, because OTHERWISE….. unscrupulous businessmen can and DO MANIPULATE our lives at our expense for THEIR benefit.
If the time is right, I extend this line of reasoning to pointing out that like it or not, they are paying for treating these sick people with tax money,if they’re net tax payers, instead of tax eaters. And most of our little club ARE tax eaters, because we get more in old age bennies than we pay in taxes these days. The redneck Trump types don’t like to be REMINDED of this indisputable fact, but it’s grist for my mill for another day.
If each liberalish leftish leaning person would take the time to REALLY work at communicating with a right winger of his or her acquaintance, the D’s would be in control again a LOT sooner.
One of my students was a type 1 diabetic, newly diagnosed. We had a class discussion about the disease and all planned to help him settle in to his new reality. I asked parents not to send junk food or too many sweets in lunches as the poor little guy was struggling. Other kids kept trying to give him sweets, especially at halloween. One doofus Dad tuned me up and said, “No one tells me what I can or cannot send to school in my girl’s lunch”. Of course his daughter was also a fat cow.
Fuckit. You can’t fix stupid.
“Fuckit. You can’t fix stupid.”
I have felt the same, more days than not, and as far back as the days of the Greeks, somebody famously said that against stupidity the Gods themselves contend in vain.
But you can do a little to blunt the effects of it, from time to time. I gave up teaching myself in large part because I actually wanted to TEACH kids bright enough and willing to learn the abc’s of carpentry, electricity, mechanics, and applied biology aka farming.
Tomorrow or the next day, or next week, I’m going to have a lot more to say about education.
That was Friedrich Schiller in the 19th century.
Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.
And we get to pay 50% extra for PV due to trade war nonsense.
This suggests that increased CO2 reduces food quality.
http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/09/13/food-nutrients-carbon-dioxide-000511?cmpid=sf
Almost any industrial agricultural technology in widespread use today reduces the nutritional quality of food but mostly to minor extent. For instance the level of micro nutrients is often lower in commercial varieties, but not by a lot. The protein profile is apt to be a little less optimal for human nutrition in commercial wheat and rice, etc.
There are some IMPORTANT exceptions to this minor extent observation. Sometimes unhealthy fractions are much higher, as in sugars are higher in commercially produced fruits, but otoh, fruits are mostly sugar to begin with, lol.
The biggest exception is that industrial meat is higher in fat than is good for us.
And breeding of crops and animals, by either traditional or new tech methods can improve the quality of food substantially. Consider the case of golden rice for instance.
Overall, the increase in production far outweighs the loss in nutrients in terms of using added fertilizers, breeding for higher production, etc.
We ought to be open minded in terms of engineering our food supply.
It’s way better to eat a lot of affordable apples than just a few expensive apples, and high lysine corn can make the difference between being healthy and sick if you depend on corn as staple food, etc.
I’m not arguing that more co2 in the air is good for farmers. It may actually increase productivity for some farmers in some places. There’s evidence to this effect, for instance this is why co2 is sometimes enriched in greehouses.
But there’s OVERWHELMING evidence to the effect that in terms of the BIG PICTURE , more co2 is bad for farmers, and thus for everybody, on a global basis.
First a wine shortage, now this:
Croissants in crisis: could French bakers crumble amid butter shortage?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/25/croissants-in-crisis-could-french-bakers-crumble-amid-butter-shortage
Can anyone deny things are falling apart?
Sacré bleu! 🙂
I would gladly trade butter for wine, but if they are short on wine then c’est la vie.
French consumers have not yet seen butter prices rise at the checkout because supermarket groups fix their prices once a year. But this means butter suppliers currently get better margins by selling elsewhere.
It’s a classic case of price controls causing an artificial shortage. On the other hand, it sounds like the old French system of butter quotas (that was abolished in 2015) was working better than this bust and boom and bust, which is the classic behavior of commodities.
No easy solutions…
Having just experienced a very warm October up here at 41N USA, it’s obviously linked to winds from the south and southwest. Temperatures just a few days ago hit 80F and have been consistently hitting the 60’s and 70’s, more 70’s than anything (used to snow here in October sometimes). So what if the wind patterns changed permanently, bringing up southern air a lot? I think that would overwhelm and add to any climate change. Anyone with recent information on consistent wind pattern shifts in North America?
Winds Of Change: North America’s Wind Patterns Have Shifted Significantly In The Past 30,000 Years
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/01/070123111044.htm
That’s another example of climate change just being one big cycle of always happening natural events. Unless you want to say people 30,000 years ago had oversized SUVs and pickup trucks causing wind patterns to shift?
I think you’ve managed to get six or seven logical fallacies into about three lines: red herring (all fallacies come down to that really), loaded question, straw man, denying the antecedent, vacuous truth, single cause fallacy, a hint of ad hominem, and probably others (fallacy of division, fallacy of composition, naturalistic fallacy), and behind them all for you there’s certainly the furtive fallacy – i.e. even if it’s true it’s someone else’s fault and responsibility and probably a conspiracy.
Hi George,
DiamondJoe hasn’t the faintest clue what any of “them there fifty cent words” mean, unless he’s a human progamming bots or a real live fossil fuel bankster troll with SUBSTANTIALLY greater more than average levels of data and working neurons between his ears.
The biggest single reason well educated and well intentioned and mostly clear thinking liberals can’t understand why the world is in such a sorry state, and working class and poor people often vote against their own best long term interests, is that they just don’t understand that the VAST majority of people don’t really know the difference between doo doo and apple butter when it comes to such words, or climate science, or oil depletion, or dozens of other critical issues.
But they aren’t so ill informed that they don’t know those same well educated and well intentioned liberals are making them the butts of mean hearted jokes when they call them “deplorables” and so forth, and they express their resentment, and get their revenge at the voting booth, even at their own expense. All to often they don’t have a clue that the libs are actually ( often enough ) trying to help EVERYBODY , as in for example putting in single payer health care, cleaning up the environment, etc.
This failure to understand is not due to stupidity. It’s due to a lack of VALID information. It’s NOT the fault of poor people that they don’t have university degrees.
In real life, hardly any of them ever had a serious shot at getting a good education, excepting the small percentage lucky enough to be born with lots of snappy neurons and raised to have powerful work ethics and lots of ambition.
I KNOW, I’m one of the lucky few born with an adequate supply of such neurons and to the right sort of parents. I grew up with hundreds who weren’t so lucky, and live among them again now that I’ve retired to the farm.
Genius is not what I’m referring to, I’m a LONG way from genius level, lol.
But you do need SOME brains to succeed INTELLECTUALLY. If high school is really tough for you in a typical public high school, well, reality dictates you will not likely succeed at anything other than varsity sports and basket weaving at a REAL university. ( But you could still learn a lot , including ways to make a decent living, at a community college.)
And this is not to say lots of VERY capable kids don’t get screwed over and learn next to nothing in public or even private schools.
One of my semi literate friends is a born engineer, a man who can dismantle a thirteen speed truck transmission down to the last screw, and see every detail about what’s wrong with it, and put it all back together a year later without consulting a manual of ANY sort. And he didn’t learn how to do this in a classroom, or by doing it every day for an extended period of time. He can just DO IT. He’s created some marvelous home built machinery that works BETTER than what’s available commercially. He makes parts at home that fix certain Ford truck transmissions that FORD dealers can’t fix, even with the help of Ford Motor Company. They oughta have him on their engineering trouble shooting crew.
If he had been lucky in having the right sort of parents to raise him to look up to going to college, he would probably be a top notch engineer today. But that’s life, and that’s our school system,and that’s the peer group ( his less capable friends ) who steered him wrong.
Sure, humans are a part of nature. What we do has impacted many aspects of other natural systems. There are now over 7.5 billion of us. Roughly 3 billion added just in my lifetime…
And you are either dumb as a pile of rocks or just another disingenious troll.
George pretty much nailed it in his description of your post.
Yep, glaciations are natural events. So is world wide mining of fossil fuels and burning them in pick-up trucks, ships and tractor trailers along with power generation plants. All natural. We just like to think we had something to do with the latter, but maybe it’s just our genes expressing themselves and we are just bio-bots forced to do their bidding.
Either way, we are involved, master or puppet the result is the same.
But don’t worry, raw nature is definitely in the act now.
How long are you allowed outside the village?
How long are you allowed outside the village?
Trouble is Village Idiots are a dime a dozen these days… Don’t know whatever happened to this one but maybe he is/was related to Dim Joe Aond.
Florida idiot plans to tie himself to post during Hurricane Irma
Posted By Colin Wolf on Sun, Sep 10, 2017 at 9:46 am
This morning, a Miami man told an NBC reporter that he plans to secure his shirtless body to a post outside while the Category 4 Hurricane Irma hits.
“I’m testing this out. I’m actually doing a stunt. It sounds crazy, but there’s a meaning behind it,” said the incredibly foolish Florida idiot. “I’m tying myself to a post down on Meridian for the duration of the hurricane. It’s all planned out with safety precautions and everything.”
Besides being shredded alive by broken glass and debris, or being swept away by the storm surge, what could possibly go wrong?
.
Well,now.
IF he did it, AND he survived without serious injury, and has ample documentation, which is altogether possible, he can sell his story for a fair sum to some magazine or news paper, and dumb but attractive women will have sex with him on the basis of this adventure, and men will be buying him drinks on it for the rest of his life.
The first time I’m free to do so, I’m going down Florida way and finding a reasonably safe place to experience such a storm first hand myself. But I won’t be tying myself to a post, naked, lol.
A little danger puts some spice in your life and lead in your pencil.
Any man who is so risk adverse he won’t at least consider doing such things as swimming in the sea where there are sharks, or hiking in the woods where there are bears, is less than a real man.
“That’s another example of climate change just being one big cycle of always happening natural events. Unless you want to say people 30,000 years ago had oversized SUVs and pickup trucks causing wind patterns to shift?”
Hey Joe, your village idiot performance comes very natural, respect. Is this one of your spare time occupations or are you actually earning money with it?
Record-Melting Fall Heat Wave Bakes Southern California
It’s not every October 23 or 24 that millions of Americans are swathed in temperatures above 100°F. This week has done just that, bringing some of the toastiest weather ever observed in the United States during late October, and more pre-Halloween heat is on the way. By far the most scorching weather has been in Southern California, although it’s also been exceptionally mild this month in settings as far-flung as Michigan, Florida, and New England.
A multi-day summer-like heat wave kicked into high gear on Monday and continued Tuesday along and well inland from the California coast, from Santa Barbara through Los Angeles to San Diego. Dozens of locations record highs for the date and all-time highs for this late in the year, and Santa Ana winds kept the temperatures amazingly warm throughout Monday night. In Orange County, the city of Fullerton soared to 107°F on Monday. According to WU weather historian Christopher Burt, this is likely the hottest single temperature recorded anywhere in the United States so late in the year. Even Death Valley has never recorded a temperature this high after October 16 in any year! For comparison, the national U.S. record high for November is 105°F, most recently at Tustin Irvine Ranch, California, in 1997.
Another impressive mark: downtown Los Angeles (the University of Southern California campus) hit 102°F. Prior to Monday, the downtown station had never topped 100°F after October 17, in records going all the way back to 1877. Incredibly, the USC downtown station got even hotter on Tuesday, reaching 103°F at 1 pm.
Hey GF, what are you going on about? Don’t you know it’s just weather. /sarc
Hi Islandboy, I said it was just the wind direction. Wasn’t really a climate post. I felt the wind directions had been left out of the discussion long enough and needed some equal time. 🙂
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/26/saudi-aramco-ceo-it-will-be-decades-before-evs-shoulder-a-significant-percentage-of-the-energy-mix/
He’s probably right. I ‘m all for ev’s taking over, but it’s likely imo that it’s going to be a couple of decades before they displace more than maybe twenty percent of the cars on most roads road. Maybe a little sooner, maybe a LOT sooner, if the oil supply crashes, or batteries get to be a lot cheaper a lot quicker than hoped.
The new cars sold today, and for the next ten years, are mostly still going to be in running order fifteen to twenty five years from now, and an old cheap car that’s running ok and looks ok is a hell of a good deal compared to ANY new car, if you are short of money, or have sense enough to INVEST your money when it’s practical to do so.
And the best single opportunity most people who make a fairly decent living have to invest more is to buy fewer cars.
SOMETHING tells me a LOT of people are going to be short of money in coming times.
Remember the discussion about automation a couple of days back?
And guaranteed incomes?
Does anybody really think we collectively will be willing to pay enough in guaranteed income for the recipients of the same to buy new cars? Or to buy cars at ALL?
I’m not opposed to a guaranteed income policy , because I believe such will be NECESSARY at some time in the not so distant future.
We already have the rudiments of one in place now, in fragments, some of them BIG fragments, such as old age benefits, food stamps, rental assistance, public schools, public health clinics, and so forth.
So what I’m interested in, when I post comments critical of such schemes, is to provoke comments indicating how the shortcomings of these schemes can be fixed.
This is a big topic of discussion in Norway these days:
AMONG ‘GREEN’ ENERGY, HYDROPOWER IS THE MOST DANGEROUS
“Hydro projects are such a disaster for tropical rainforests that I don’t consider them ‘green’ energy at all,” added Laurance. Wind turbines and solar panels can also cause environmental harm, but on a much lower scale compared to hydropower. However, these industries have expanded enormously in the past decade…” Renewable energy has the potential to balance the conflict between our growing energy needs and environmental security,” said Gibson. “We must identify and mitigate the ecological impacts of renewable energy to ensure that its future is truly green.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/10/171025103148.htm
These guys need to keep the big picture in mind, take off the blinders and look at the effects of a crashed civilization if we don’t proceed with transistion fast enough. Better they spend their efforts and time on efficiency and system changes so we don’t need as much energy in the future.
We do the best we can in a world where some damage will occur no matter what we do, but if we do nothing the damage will be far worse.
From the good old days:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/energy-water-and-land#statement-16459
From the above report
I’m working at the moment so I won’t read the linked article till tonight but I couldn’t agree more. BTW large areas of flooded rainforest behind hydropower damns are huge producers of methane! Extreme ecological devastation is how I see them. This idiotic project in Brazil is a good example.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/brazil-belos-monte-dam-delay-court-indigenous-people
Yup, B.C. Hydro’s 1,100-megawatt Site C dam on the Peace River near Fort St. John, currently under construction, will flood more the 53 square kilometres of land, not just historic and aboriginal sites, but prime farmland and wildlife habitat so rich explorer Alexander Mackenzie wrote in 1793: “The country is so crowded with animals as to have the appearance, in some places, of a stall-yard, from the state of the ground, and the quantity of dung, which is scattered over it.”
From satellite views the area looks heavily compromised and overrun by humans. A natural point of view. Things have probably changed a lot since 1793.
Yup, it’s currently one of the richest agricultural areas in Canada and it’s about to become a large lake.
PEACE VALLEY’S “EXTRAORDINARY” FARMLAND COULD FEED A MILLION PEOPLE, AGROLOGISTS TELL SITE C DAM REVIEW
http://commonsensecanadian.ca/peace-valleys-extraordinary-agricultural-values-threatened-site-c-dam/
I don’t have any nearby large hydro-power and the big flood control dam about 70 miles away floods middle of nowhere forest area up three creeks so nobody cares. Over 4 decades ago a large farming valley and village was inundated a couple of hundred feet deep to provide water supply during drought times to a very densely populated region downstream.
My state lost much of it’s farms to development from the 1950’s into the 1990’s.
Probably a bad idea to inundate farmland to produce unneeded power.
How about wind and some pumped hydro on the nearby hills?
Must be several ways to get that 580 MW power if needed.
Reservoir Surfaces as Sources of Greenhouse Gases to the Atmosphere: A Global Estimate: Reservoirs are sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, and their surface areas have increased to the point where they should be included in global inventories of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases
Initial calculations indicate that, globally, these emissions may be equivalent to 7% of the global warming potential of other documented anthropogenic emissions of these gases. This percentage is similar to contributions from other currently inventoried sources. As a result, we argue that these fluxes should be included in greenhouse gas inventories by country and in models of global carbon cycling.
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/50/9/766/269391
Wind and solar power are almost entirely benign in comparison to hydro power.
Anybody who can’t see this instantly is rather poorly informed about both the environment and politics on the national and international scale.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/vanishing-nile-a-great-river-faces-a-multitude-of-threats-egypt-dam
The construction of hydro on the world’s remaining free running rivers is not only destroying or substantially altering vast territories, it’s also putting the livelihoods of hundreds of millions, maybe a couple of billion people at very high risk.
Such projects are underway or at least planned all thru Asia and South America, as well as Africa.
But not many more will be built in the developed western countries, because all the best sites have already been built.
There’s a very real possibility that the political repercussions of some of these giant water projects will result in both guerilla and open hot wars being fought….. and wars once started have a way of sometimes getting entirely out of hand, and spreading even so far as to entangle the great power countries that may have had little or nothing to do with the water project.
On the OTHER hand, there’s at least one great power that’s SERIOUSLY involved in financing and building these new projects. That power used to be the USA. Now it’s China, for the most part.
Experts generally have their heads up their asses when it comes to the REALLY BIG PICTURE. This head up the ass problem is why engineers will sign off on building nukes on flood plains or within reach of tsunamis, and why economists are unable to see the problems that can arise with free trade policies.
Free trade in principle is a wonderful thing. In practice it can lead to disastrous outcomes for tens of millions of people, and those tens of millions have ways of making their pain felt, as for instance electing Trump.
And the economists who sing it’s praises seldom have anything to say about it’s ill consequences for the losers, such as maybe the USA losing it’s leading spot in the world economic and military power pecking order to somebody who plays the game more skillfully than we do.
DO DRIVERLESS TRUCKS SIGNAL THE END OF AN AMERICAN ERA?
“A huge part of that portrait of Americana is the 3.5 million people who drive up and down that continent-spanning quilt of roads everyday: truck drivers. But this job – an indelible image of US culture – could be faced with big changes, as leaps in automation and heaps of startups scramble to make these big 16-wheeled vehicles humanless and self-driving.”
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20171025-do-driverless-trucks-signal-the-end-of-an-american-era
Personally I have some doubts about this. For one thing, a common sight in Canada, at least, is rows of trucks parked on pull-out lanes so the drivers can either install or remove tire chains.
Maybe the AI will decide it’s stupid to drive in those conditions and just sit tight until conditions improve. Or maybe there will be an auto chain feed/installer on the truck itself.
Robby the robot pops out of a door on the side of the tractor, grabs the chains, installs them, does a walk around to see if the truck is in good condition then pops back in. Robby also sells his services to other AI trucks that don’t have a Robby on board. Robby changes tires and does minor repairs too. Don’t be scared of Robby just because he looks like some giant bug with attachments. Robby is heavily armored against attack from out of work truckers.
As a former driver, I have plenty of doubts about this being a sure thing. I’ve been reading about this for awhile, and thinking about it quite a bit. Before swallowing it whole, I think it might do folks some good to sit at an off-ramp of one of the major truck routes (almost any interstate) and watch for a few hours. If an autonomous system is going to drive into a fuel-stop, it had better quickly learn to play dodge-the-other-trucks. Okay, so we keep a driver on board for these times, also to take over in case of an emergency. Then where is the cost savings? Also, I can’t imagine sitting behind the wheel for even an hour while the truck drives itself, then suddenly having to take over because Otto (auto?) sees a problem. The times when I was driving and had a near collision, blowout, or other emergency, all senses needed to be alert, not dozing and day-dreaming. Reaction time is often about a second, or it’s too late. That’s not gonna happen if Otto has been rocking me to sleep for awhile.
Trucking is a very competitive business. For these Otto trucks to get into the market, I think the major freight-haulers will have to be first. That’s UPS, FedEx, YRC, etc. And they only operate about 5% of the class 8 market. The other 95% are operated by smaller companies, with 20 or less trucks each. (It’s been a while since I researched this, so my numbers might be off, but not by much)
Without some real-world proof of cost-savings, the smaller companies won’t touch the new tech. I owned my own truck and operated it from 2004 till mid-2009, and I can’t imagine any one-or-two-truck operator spending big money on a new, unproven tech, when he’s barely making it now. And those 1 or 2-truck guys own the great majority of trucks on the road.
In regards to the above comment, re chains. Robo-the-chain-hanger is just more Buck Rogers shit. Ain’t gonna happen. What you think his price-tag would be? And no, Otto can’t just decide it’s too dangerous to go. The freight has to keep moving if possible, and it is possible in most snow conditions. That shit has to get to WallyWorld, and we gotta get them chickens on down the other side! Boston and New York gets bitchy if they don’t get their food, and trucker don’t get paid if he don’t deliver. If you’ve ever crossed the Rockies on major highways, maybe you’ve noticed the chain-up signs? That’s because chains are sometimes necessary, and you can get a pretty steep fine for ignoring the warning and then causing a fuck-up. There are some aut0-deployed chains in use now on lots of school-buses, but they’re nowhere near as effective as conventional chains, and I’m quite sure they don’t meet the requirement for the chain laws in the mountains.
Now, after having said all that, I’m sure Otto will be developed further and tried. I just don’t see him taking over much of the job. And yes I know he’s already driving in Utah or Nevada, forget which. But I don’t think he’s earning his check, just spending somebody else’s money at this point. Of course I don’t blame Swift (sure wish I’d finished training) for trying. After all they have plenty of trouble keeping all those half-trained drivers they turn loose, out of the medians, and dragging them out from under low overpasses.
I agree Stanley—–
Complexity is not your friend.
I would think there could be crews of people at the bottom of the mountains that put the chains on the truck tires during snow events and on the other side of the mountains to take them off. Tire chain problem solved.
Also the possibility of convoys of self-driving trucks with a lead driver that is a human.
I guess those ex-drivers could work a few weeks each winter throwing chains, then go back to Hardee’s to mop floors.
How does Otto navigate? If by the white lines, there’s gonna be a problem when snow covers the road. I don’t think GPS is accurate enough presently to do the job, and I’m pretty sure the roadways aren’t mapped accurately enough either. In case navigation is by while line, there will be plenty of work for ex-drivers in “painting weather” in the line-painting industry, but they need to be supervised closely, so they don’t paint Otto into a bridge abutment. But then, that would create more jobs in the construction industry, which then will be taken by robots too. Pardon my temporary flight of imagination, this is really a subject for serious discussion.
The convoy idea doesn’t work for me either. If we’re gonna let the Otto’s follow close enough for the lead driver to lead them, why not just use the already tried and true road-train system used down under? We already use doubles and triples on certain routes now, but they don’t work everywhere, and a 5 or 6 trailer road-train isn’t feasible much of anywhere in the US. If the Otto’s are spaced out far enough to be workable in any kind of traffic, then the lead driver isn’t going to do them much good. He’s got a pretty good job just staying off the top of the little bitch who just cut over in front of him while texting. So, sure, just let Otto drive that one too, he’s got all the proximity sensors and cameras.
Left turn in traffic?
Next point: If Otto hits the texting bitch, or swerves and brakes to avoid her, consequently hitting the ex-driver touching up the white line at the exit ramp, which insurance company is gonna pay?
Now, I do understand that the tech is being developed, and will be tried as soon as somebody can do it. But that doesn’t mean it will work in the real world. It’s gotta meet the dollars test. We have, or maybe I should say had, the tech to put a few men on the moon. Today, we can’t even take a bologna sandwich to our astronauts on the ISS. Instead, while some of our public-speaking leaders are bad-mouthing Russia, we send someone else quietly, hat-in-hand, to meekly beg them (said hat full of million-dollar bills) to do the job for us.
All things considered, or at least as many as my weak brain can consider, I’ve concluded that we so-called sapient beings have just about outsmarted ourselves, and will continue shitting in our nest till we can’t live in it any longer, ’cause we just do what humans do. Barring an unpredictable sudden great catastrophe, I expect we’ll just continue the slow, bumpy road downward that we started on a long time ago. Hope you and I are not a couple of bumps that Otto runs over on the way.
Enjoy the discussion.
Not only are autonomous trucks running about on highways in different parts of the world right now but yes the US delivers supplies to the space station.
The Dragon cargo ship is filled with more than 6,400 lbs. (2,900 kilograms) of supplies, science experiments and food – and yes, ice cream – for the space station’s Expedition 52 crew. SpaceX launched delivery mission Monday (Aug. 14) on a Falcon 9 rocket, which then returned its first stage to Earth in a smooth landing
https://www.space.com/37816-spacex-dragon-resupplies-space-station-crs12.html
No lines, snow on the ground, Otto doesn’t need no stinking lines.
https://www.wired.com/2016/01/the-clever-way-fords-self-driving-cars-navigate-in-snow/
BTW, I really don’t like the idea of autonomous cars and trucks but that is the way things are going and fast so I go with it. I don’t think it will help our predicaments much at all so look on it as a sideshow.
Now having a drone drop off some piece of hardware I forgot to get saves a lot of energy and time since I don’t have to drive to get it and the drone plus hardware is much smaller and lighter than my vehicle.
Well, off to get my forgotten hardware since the job has to get done today.
Hi Gonefishing,
One aspect to Autonomous trucks is they can slow down to save energy, the AV cars may allow more car pooling more easily which would reduce road congestion and save energy (in theory half the cars on the road and possibly more if some people ride 3 to a car or more. (Thinking TaaS, but cars could be privately owned and used in an Uber app type ride sharing scheme).
The autonomous trucks might just be a labor saving measure. Any Energy savings might be minimal.
Nothing we can’t do with our dumb cars and are doing already. Park and ride near me is full on weekdays. Not enough parking spaces, not enough park and rides.
Too many people.
Too much money in all the wrong places.
You’re right, we do haul supplies to ISS. I seldom watch news on TV and had forgotten about the Dragon. I should have used the hauling of astronauts for my rant, as I’ve been disappointed in NASA’s fuck-ups for several years now.
SpaceX is the best techno-entertainment around. Who needs NASA for space (which has been politically raped and tossed in the trash) when we have robo-rockets.
Rant all you want, Space-X and other private rocketeers will be hauling people soon.
Not that it makes one bit of difference while we waste our money on all the wrong things and one of the most powerful nations on earth has billionaires fighting over the last dregs of profits from fossil fuels. They don’t care if the US falls behind as long as they can keep squeezing blood out of us and keep the citizens distracted by lies and deception.
Make America A Dump Again.
Hi Dennis,
You’re likely dead on. There will be crews of men to put on chains as needed untill automated equipment can manage the job. Etc.
I am sick of hearing all the pissing and moaning about various employers not being able to find enough decent help.
There’s only ONE real reason any body can’t hire plenty of good help. They just don’t pay enough to attract the kind of employees they want. When the pay is right, the help is first class.
Now it’s easy for a businessman to be trapped in the position of having to use minimum wage help because that’s what his COMPETITORS pay, but I have been in literally dozens of fast food restaurants and retail stores and other such businesses.I see both competent and incompetent staff.
A man who wants competent cashiers is free to visit half a dozen local competitors for half an hour each, observing, and speak to a COMPETENT cashier for a few seconds, and have him come by his place to talk about another fifty cents or dollar an hour. He will recover that time, times five or ten, by spending less time breaking in a new employee.
I know at least two who have done so, and they’re TICKLED PINK with the results. They will never again advertise for a cashier.They’ll run a register themselves until they can hire one away. It takes selling only a few dollars more gross to cover the extra wages and then some. They MAKE MORE by paying more because good cashiers mean happier customers who visit more often.
I pay anywhere from a dollar to three dollars an hour more for casual help than the other farmers around here, working or retired, and find it very much to my advantage to do so. I can turn my back on my help, lol.
When seasonal work is slow, an extra dollar is enough, and I COULD pay even less, rather than more. When workers are in short supply seasonally, I have to pay an extra twenty five bucks or so to steal a good one away for a day.
Clock mysteriously photoshopped out of Tillerson photo
https://boingboing.net/2017/10/25/clock-mysteriously-photoshoppe.html
If reality is stressful, just use photoshop?
Trump Cabinet Secretary’s hometown, 2-person company wins $300m power-rebuilding contract in Puerto Rico
(I’m sure it was the best choice)
https://boingboing.net/2017/10/26/whitefish-energy.html
(a least they are overtly corrupt)
When mainland US cities like Houston and Miami get hit by hurricanes, they rely on mutual aid deals with out-of-state and Canadian power authorities to rebuild, as hundreds of skilled maintenance workers flood in and work for free to get their grid up and running; but debt-crushed Puerto Rico is paying $300 million to Whitefish Energy, a two-person company from Trump Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke’s hometown of Whitefish, Montana.
Zinke says the fact that he is pals with the owners of Whitefish Energy has nothing to do with the company winning the contract, and the fact that they used to employ Zinke’s son has nothing to do with it either.
Stinky Zinke!
Apparently this is just too smelly, even for the Repugs:
U.S. House panel seeks documents on Puerto Rico utility repair contract
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-puertorico-power/house-panel-seeks-documents-on-puerto-rico-utility-repair-contract-idUSKBN1CV3C9?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28Reuters+Politics+News%29
“Specifically, the size and terms of the contract, as well as the circumstances surrounding the contract’s formation, raise questions regarding PREPA’s standard contract awarding procedures,” the chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, Rob Bishop, said in a letter to PREPA’s executive director, Ricardo Ramos.
Media reports that Whitefish Energy Holdings entered the contract with PREPA to fix the utility’s power grid raised questions among Democrats in Congress and others when it was disclosed that the Montana firm won the contract without a competitive bidding process.
The two-year-old company had only two full-time employees—
Stinky Zinke!
The A-feedback. Some climate scientists think in terms of feedbacks, but they usually look at natural feedbacks. There is a set of anthropogenic feedbacks that are constantly occurring.
Example one: Those increasing number of hot days in temperate and equatorial regions increase food wastage, increase the use of built air conditioning and increase the demand for adding air conditioning. All of those mean more energy and materials are used which in turn produces more CO2 into the atmosphere, making more hot days.
Example two: Larger and more powerful storms due to increased energy in ocean and atmosphere. Increased destruction means increased energy and materials use for rescue and rebuild efforts. That in turn puts more CO2 into the atmosphere, increasing storms.
Example three: Increased drought. Water distribution infrastructure has to be built and maintained. Fires cause temporary migrations and loss of infrastructure along with injuries and loss of life. All need increased energy and materials, which puts more CO2 in the atmosphere, increasing drought in that region.
You get the picture, until we get a carbon free energy system established any new activity or disaster will just feed the problem, which feeds the problem, until we crash or change.
Meanwhile,
ARE ANTARCTICA’S ICE SHEETS NEAR A CLIMATE TIPPING POINT?
“What we are increasingly seeing is that we have been on the conservative side in estimating sea level rise,” said study co-author Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, a climate physicist at Climate Analytics, a climate science and policy institute. “Parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to already be in substantial decline. If that continues, it’s not a matter of how much, but how fast sea level will rise.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26102017/antarctica-sea-level-rise-ice-sheet-tipping-point-climate-change-study
SHIPPING EXECUTIVE: ‘WE HAVE DELIBERATELY MISLED PUBLIC ON CLIMATE’
Cosco UK deputy general manager said industry lobbyists at the UN were ‘prostitutes employed by our racket to try and put one over on the general public’
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/10/26/shipping-executive-deliberately-mislead-public-climate/
CLIMATE CHANGE MIGHT BE WORSE THAN THOUGHT AFTER SCIENTISTS FIND MAJOR MISTAKE IN WATER TEMPERATURE READINGS
“The sea was much colder than previously thought, the study suggests, indicating that climate change is advancing at an unprecedented rate… The new research suggests that the oceans hundreds of millions of years ago were much cooler than we thought. If true, that means that the global warming we are currently undergoing is unparalleled within the last 100 million years, and far worse than we had previously calculated.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/climate-change-worse-water-temperature-reading-scientists-global-warming-ice-melt-weather-a8020696.html
It was already worse than thought, so what does this do? Make it WorserX2.
I think we are on thin ice now. 🙂
No, worser times X, X being the proverbial unknown.
Interesting how they discovered this just as Trump begins taking the public grants away.
“The research was conducted by French researchers from the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Sorbonne University and the University of Strasbourg, and Swiss researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL) and the University of Lausanne. It has just been published in Nature Communications.”
Nature?
Thats the major science publishing house on the planet, with the highest standards.
Wing Pawns prefer “Watt is my head doing up my ass?” as their source (I’m stupid, and proud of it!) .
It is obviously a plot to destroy capitalism, raise taxes, and create a one world government.
Oh, and make all that money publishing books!
See like I wrote in the last post, US climate scientists need to move to France. Look how welcoming they are to the agenda.
Van Vleet is troll posting non-responsive comments trying to re-frame a fact-based conversation into an ideological one.
So fuck ’em.
Stupid as fuck
CVV – You are evidently a man of judgment … no wait, I meant a pathetic, bigoted and willfully ignorant berk, but just for the fuck (oo, a bad word, you probably don’t like them – berk is another, very bad, by the way) what, in your worthless opinion, would have been the toll, in terms of death and destruction, had the three big hurricanes this year – you may have forgotten or never known their names so to remind they were Harvey, Irma and Nate – impacted with no forewarning at all because tossers like you had prevailed and there were no scientists around to develop the satellite imaging, climate and weather models, building methods and communication technology that allowed the hurricane paths in to be predicted in advance and people to be moved to safe shelters?
Trump is irrelevant! The US is but one country among 100s…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gbmZqXGimo
Carl Sagan – Pale Blue Dot
Ned … er I mean Harmon, Stop being such a shill. You’re just embarrassing yourself.
In case anyone wants to read the actual paper, it is open source … I’m sure the idiots commenting at the link Doug provided haven’t! And neither have our local trolls such as George Harmon. It never ceases to amaze me how deliberately ignorant so many people are.
People who have worked in tech support are probably familiar with the exclamation, RTFM! Generally uttered in extreme frustration, when faced with really stupid questions that are explained clearly in the manual. Well, before anyone makes stupid comments about any scientific paper, may I suggest that at the very least they, RTFP!
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01225-9
Burial-induced oxygen-isotope re-equilibration of fossil foraminifera explains ocean paleotemperature paradoxes
Abstract
Oxygen-isotope compositions of fossilised planktonic and benthic foraminifera tests are used as proxies for surface- and deep-ocean paleotemperatures, providing a continuous benthic record for the past 115 Ma. However, visually imperceptible processes can alter these proxies during sediment burial. Here, we investigate the diffusion-controlled re-equilibration process with experiments exposing foraminifera tests to elevated pressures and temperatures in isotopically heavy artificial seawater (H218O), followed by scanning electron microscopy and quantitative NanoSIMS imaging: oxygen-isotope compositions changed heterogeneously at submicrometer length scales without any observable modifications of the test ultrastructures. In parallel, numerical modelling of diffusion during burial shows that oxygen-isotope re-equilibration of fossil foraminifera tests can cause significant overestimations of ocean paleotemperatures on a time scale of 107 years under natural conditions. Our results suggest that the late Cretaceous and Paleogene deep-ocean and high-latitude surface-ocean temperatures were significantly lower than is generally accepted, thereby explaining the paradox of the low equator-to-pole surface-ocean thermal gradient inferred for these periods.
Fred, you take all the fun out of stupidity.
Don’t worry, most will never change their minds. They will either not comprehend what they are reading or be waiting in the long line for a high degree of certainty on things rather than looking at the physical principles behind current trends and the world in general. Those confused and befuddled by uncertainty are the most amusing of the lot because they actually think they are being intelligent about the situation.
The rest are just latching onto things as a drowning man grabs a floating object.
Climate sensitivity to forcings is state and concentration dependent, which escapes most people. But those are non-linear and step-wise functions. Way too many conclusions are made because the analyst wants the world to act in smooth and easily predictable ways.
The human mind does not grasp time very well past a decade or two, which is why most people do not see that the changes right now are happening so fast that it is similar to the flip of a switch. Changes that typically take a thousand years are happening in a generation or two.
We are observing a state switch now and are highly absorbed by the small spark as the switch closes. 🙂
We are observing a state switch now and are highly absorbed by the small spark as the switch closes.
M’Kay…
.
Interesting toroidal field line flows.
Hi Doug,
It would seem that one interpretation is that Global ocean temperatures are much more stable than was previously believed (assuming the research is confirmed by others).
This might also result in another look at the atmospheric composition of this period, I think estimates of atmospheric CO2 were about 1000 ppm and solar output may have been lower. So either Earth system sensitivity is lower than the 4.5 C per doubling of CO2 (approximately the best estimate) or atmospheric CO2 may be estimated at too high a level during that period.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-the-world-passed-a-carbon-threshold-400ppm-and-why-it-matters
The article linked above suggests about 900 ppm of CO2 about 100 My BP which would suggest about a 7.6 C higher temperature than pre-industrial Holocene, before accounting for reduced solar output 100 My BP and assuming ESS of 4.5 C.
The paper suggests ocean temperatures were much lower, but it is not quantified. If average Ocean temperatures 100 million years BP were close to the Holocene average, this would imply a lower Earth system sensitivity than would a warmer average Ocean temperature.
Unfortunately, it is not clear if we have very good estimates of Global Ocean temperature of the past, the paper you referenced suggests past temperature estimates may need to be revised lower.
Hi Doug,
The paper linked below you may find interesting, you may have seen it already.
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14845
I am doubtful that there is actually as much fossil fuel that will be extracted as in the RCP8.5 (5000 Pg C) or Wink12k (12,000 Pg C) scenarios, the RCP4.5 scenario (about 1500 Pg C) is roughly similar to my medium fossil fuel scenarios which many here have suggested are far too optimistic (in other words most people believe fossil fuel output will be lower possibly like my “low” scenarios, roughly 1100 Pg C).
Of course the models could be incorrect and climate sensitivity may well be under estimated, but for most of the last 420 million years combined CO2 and solar forcing has been relatively stable, if we can manage to keep atmospheric CO2 under 600 ppm that stability may be maintained based on what we currently know about the past 400 million years or so.
Also 500 ppm or even 450 ppm of atmospheric CO2 would be safer, the lower the better.
No, I don’t dwell only on doom-and-gloom issues:
COLLIDING NEUTRON STARS COULD SETTLE COSMOLOGY’S BIGGEST CONTROVERSY
“To many cosmologists, the best thing about neutron-star mergers is that these events scream into space an otherwise close-kept secret of the universe. Scientists combined the gravitational and electromagnetic signals from the recently detected collision of two of these stars to determine, in a cleaner way than with other approaches, how fast the fabric of the universe is expanding, a much-contested number called the Hubble constant.”
https://www.quantamagazine.org/colliding-neutron-stars-could-settle-cosmologys-biggest-controversy-20171025/
Unless it’s the Hubble Variable.
Well yes, the so-called Hubble “constant” gives the rate at which the universe expands AT PRESENT and the Hubble “CONSTANT” is actually a time-dependant parameter with the name constant dating back to the time people believed the universe was static: that about sums up my knowledge of the matter.
Background dependent—
But we can’t see the universe AT PRESENT! We can see far into the past but never the present except right nearby.
In reality it is a measure of the red shift of light from galaxies. Red shift is assumed to indicate velocity away from us. Galaxies closer to us have less red shift and galaxies further away (further in the past) had larger red shifts. This was interpreted as an expanding universe. What it really defines is that red shift of galaxies is dependent upon time which is interpreted as distance. Since we cannot look at far away galaxies in present time we have no idea what they are doing now or if the relationship holds. One can only assume that over 13 billions of years or more the properties of the universe have stayed the same.
But even according to the deductions made by astronomers, it has not since space is expanding. Even the Hubble constant is probably a variable as the universe changed but from what we see the further away things appear, the faster they are moving away from us, until they cross the speed of light where we may not see them anymore. Or can we?
https://phys.org/news/2015-10-galaxies-faster.html
https://phys.org/news/2015-02-fast-universe.html
My question has been, where did the energy go?
A photon of light has the energy of E=hf which in terms of wavelength would be E= hc/w where w = wavelength. As the wavelength gets longer (redder) then E gets smaller with the extreme case the microwave background radiation. So where did the energy difference go? Or does conservation of energy not hold in an expanding universe.
The only answer I can come up with is that energy goes into the expansion of the universe.
Well, for one thing, ‘Everywhere’, is the center of the expanding universe, including right here… 😉
.
That’s right, it’s the biggest magic show in existence.
The solar system is now 2 km larger than when the earth first formed. Not much of a stretch, is it? 🙂
Lost in a fog of microwave background, astronomers started examining their own navels and found there was expansion there also.
Gone Fishing,
I don’t know about the Solar System changing size because of the expansion. What we see, as I recall, is that the farther away something is from us, on an intergalactic scale, the more rapidly the distance is increasing. Turn that around and the smaller the distance the smaller the rate of expansion and on the distance scale of a galaxy, maybe of a cluster of galaxies, gravity overcomes the expansion altogether. Our galaxy isn’t expanding as far as I know, nor is anything within it, but I expect the distance between our cluster of galaxies and the next cluster is increasing.
DougL? Can you weigh in?
I think the proper way to view it is that space itself is expanding, not the embedded objects which stay the same size. Of course that’s, on average. It’s well known that Andromeda is getting closer, due to local motions. But yes, even the planets are getting further apart.
I just wanted to point out that locally the effect of expansion is so small as to be immeasurable.
One of the limitations of the method is that we can only measure direct line of sight changes in red-shift. There is no way to measure transverse velocity.
I think it’s something to do with time becoming a function of velocity rather than an absolute value everywhere – it means the conservation laws don’t hold and don’t have to hold. I think in purely maths terms it’s to do with having to have differentiable field properties for there to be conservation of those properties, but don’t quote me on any of that.
Time and space are relative to observers frames of reference but it seems to go deeper than that.
Since my good buddy HB is feeling lazy or depressed or on vacation or something, I guess it falls to me to do his share of the work posting dirt on Trump in particular and the Republicans in general.
https://boingboing.net/2017/10/26/whitefish-energy.html
I will say THIS much for Trump, although it’s what’s referred to as a left handed compliment.
He’s a World Series level crook. HRC, comparatively, might have made the varsity at a smaller college if such colleges were to field teams specializing in unsavory business practices.
Ps I see now that somebody beat me to this, but I enjoy posting dirt on the R’s, and will leave it up.
“OldFailedAppleFarmer, you yap and carry on day after day. But on November 8th of last year, when it was time to make a binary choice for the future of the country. You punted. Like other morons in this country, you focused on personal attack ads and lost sight of policy.
You’re a rube”
Shoulda ran with Sanders. Better luck next time.
Personally I get a lot of laughs out of Trump. He’s pure comedy gold. And I don’t really care much about the fate of the nation anyway. Most interactions with my fellow countrymen leave me feeling that a famine is overdue. Time to cull the heard. But hey, I’m a misanthropist.
“I’m tired of this back-slappin’ “isn’t humanity neat” bullshit. We’re a virus with shoes.”
― Bill Hicks
You also?
I thought it was just me.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/25/americas-opioid-crisis-how-prescription-drugs-sparked-a-national-trauma?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Collections+2017&utm_term=249461&subid=9848135&CMP=GT_US_collection
“Aggressive marketing of painkillers led to a new generation of addicts and more fatal overdoses than car crashes and guns combined”
If self righteous liberals would STOP AND THINK a little, just every ONCE in a while, they could spend their indignant rage on issues that they could actually WIN, without pissing off half or more of the country attacking what the opposition half sees as the libs trying to take away some of their fundamental rights and telling them what to think and believe and how to live AND in the process running the risk of putting the R’s and politicians like Trump in charge of the country and two thirds of all state and local offices, nation wide.
Now it’s too much to expect the R party to do anything about this sort of catastrophe, excepting the WRONG thing, of course…… but there’s at least SOME hope the D’s might do something about it……. IF the Sanders wing of the party manages to gain power. Otherwise, Republican Lite Democrats who hang out mostly with with banksters, who are their real constituents these days, will continue to hypocritically preach a little about the welfare of the country, while looking after the welfare of the one percenters, just like the R’s.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-pol-essential-washington-updates-what-s-behind-the-opioid-crisis-that-1509041260-htmlstory.html
The New Yorker weighs in on Cheeto Jesus:
(A thing Trump has actually stood up to)
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-says-he-is-only-president-in-history-with-courage-to-stand-up-to-war-widows
Apparently there are at least a few professionals still working in some critical positions.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-ma/pr/founder-and-owner-pharmaceutical-company-insys-arrested-and-charged-racketeering
But I wonder what took them so long.
I’ve been doing some more poking around, using a web page set up by NOAA with post Hurricane Maria aerial imagery ( https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#10/18.2470/-66.4405 )
I was prompted by a story in a newsletter I subscribe to
Solar array mounted with FastRack 510 on VA Caribbean Medical Center in Puerto Rico survives Hurricaine Irma and Hurricane Maria.
Sollega’s injection molded FastRack 510 withstood 190 mph sustained (Category 5) winds of Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Maria. After surviving the Hurricane Irma and Maria, the solar panels were fully functional and 100% operational. The array was installed using Sollega’s patented FR510 ballasted/hybrid racking system. The fully adhered single ply membrane roof utilized a combination of heat weld mechanical anchors and ballast block.
Screenshot below this post. Link to NOAA web page below:
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#19/18.39146/-66.07836
At the United States Army Garrison, Fort Buchanan there are four areas with solar PV arrays that appear very lightly damaged, as shown at the link below.
Fort Buchanan – https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#17/18.41136/-66.11638
The link below is to a page showing an industrial area to the north east of Fort Buchanan where at least five buildings have solar arrays on their roofs which appear largely intact.
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#16/18.4230/-66.1415
An installation at a car park across a road from what appears to be an oil/gas storage facility just north of east of Fort Buchanan
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#19/18.41570/-66.12864
A building about 1.75 miles away from the VA Hospital just south of east
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#20/18.38609/-66.10371
Plaza Provision Company
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#19/18.42448/-66.11280
The link below is to a page showing the center of the very badly affected solar farm near Humacao at the maximum zoom level.
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#20/18.13368/-65.81611
Moderately damaged AES Ilumina Solar Panel Farm adjacent to the AES coal fired power plant near Guayama
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#17/17.94712/-66.15593
Apparently unscathed arrays adjacent to the Pfizer plant north of the AES farm near Guayama
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#19/17.96436/-66.14282
Wind farm near Santa Isabel, no damage
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/maria/index.html#15/17.9849/-66.3782
It would appear that Puerto Rico and other areas affected by hurricanes Irma and Maria present a treasure trove of case studies on the ability of renewable energy systems to withstand extreme wind situations. Some installations survived relatively intact while others experienced severe damage.
I would love to see ground truth photos of the badly damaged array. I suspect that it may have been supported on a poorly welded framework of thin steel sections rather than a solid rail system. I don’t doubt that a well welded strong steel structure would survive but I can’t help but think of one large roof top installation, near me, that is just thin rectangular section without even a cross brace. If you have seen the welds down by 90% plus of the welders around here you would get my point in an instant.
NAOM
I’m willing to bet that installed Fastrack510 is pretty expensive stuff, but it’s obviously well worth it if you get hit by a hurricane. And as the solar industry continues to expand, there will be generic or off patent racking available that will perform equally as well…. probably for a quarter or a third of the present low volume on patent cost.
The newsworthy aspect of the Fastrack510 mounted arrays is that they are part of a class of mounting systems described as non-penetrating, ballasted, mounting systems. This class of product typically consists of rectangular plastic or metal trays that, have mounting points for four panels, one at each corner of the tray. The following page shows a wide variety of this class of product with the installed price per watt of the mounting system in some cases.
http://bestsolarmount.com/ballasted-solar-mounting-systems/
From the linked page:
Ballasted Solar Mounting Systems
Ballasted solar mounting systems are the fastest, cheapest, and easiest method for installing solar panels. These systems use their own weight and/or added weight to hold them down. If you have a relatively flat surface, you should consider a ballasted solar mount.
Benefits of ballasted solar mounting systems include:
No roof penetrations
Fast installation time, no specialized labor needed
Less interaction and coordination with roofer
Minimal tools, no machinery
Requirements for a ballasted solar mounting systems:
Flat Surface (around 5 degrees or less)
Surface must be structurally capable of holding the weight.
Apart from ballasted systems, there are systems that bond the mounts to the roof membrane and in the case of the two Sollega brand systems that survived the hurricanes, they used a combination of ballast and bonding.
Below is a picture of an example of a ballasted system fabricated from metal rather than the injection molded type made by Sollega.
This very interesting paper on the Great Basin and it’s climate relationship to changes in the Arctic uses speliothem analysis.
Arctic cryosphere and Milankovitch forcing of Great Basin paleoclimate
Because anthropogenic warming is expected to reduce northern hemisphere snow and ice cover, continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases is likely to result in warming and drying over coming centuries that will amplify a warming trend that began ~2400 years ago.
The modern climate is characterized by rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and the Arctic is expected to rapidly transition to sea-ice-free summers51 in the 21st century as it likely did during the mid-Holocene52. Such a sea ice reduction will perturb wintertime atmospheric circulation in the Great Basin, leading to dynamic warming and drying of winters similar to that observed in the instrumental record45. Additionally, human-caused warming will amplify the warming trend that began 2400 years ago, with mean annual temperature increases at our study area of 3–4 °C by 2080 under a moderate (RCP 4.5) warming scenario53. Model results indicate Great Basin winter precipitation decreases of up to 50% as a result of a northward migration of the winter jet stream45. Considering that the peak warming interval in the Great Basin of the early to mid-Holocene ‘altithermal’4,54 was one of intensely hot and arid conditions and the region was only able to sustain sparse human populations, the future of Nevada climate looks to be one of increasing warmth and drought. Without aggressive action to decrease the rate of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, the future of the Great Basin is likely to be one of heating and drying.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-13279-2
Wait a minute. How is that interesting?
Jk 😉 that’s just another old KotH reference for when someone tries convincing you something uninteresting is actually interesting. What’s a great basin though?
You are right, it’s not a lap dance or football players slamming into each other. Can’t be interesting.
But you are fine, I see nothing up top got strained by the effort of attempting to comprehend.
I may be the only the only former teacher who comments here who is redneck enough to tell it like it really is. I simply refuse to pretend I believe anything in particular, or SAY I believe it, or REFRAIN from saying it, for political reasons or cultural reasons.
Johnny may be a bot, or he may be a reasonably well informed troll, just having some fun while pushing his agenda.
But there’s also a real possibility that even if he lives smack in the middle of the Great Basin area, he doesn’t have a clue. There’s at least a hundred million plus adults of that sort here in the USA, and they wind up at sites like this one for various reasons, such as wondering what the price of diesel fuel may be next year, or if they can get a job building a solar farm, or simply at random from hitting links.
The breadth and depth of the ignorance of the typical man on the street is such that it’s incomprehensible to a person with some education who hangs out almost exclusively with other educated people.
Yesterday I offended one of my ancient relatives to the point he may not come to visit Daddy again for a while by pointing out to him using no uncertain terms that Trump is NOT a real Christian and that in actual fact he is a world class scum bag.
I might as well have said that Jesus ran whorehouses on the side for extra money. Now this man, as old as he is, is wise in the ways of the world, he’s NOT stupid at all. He rose from grade school school drop out to being the superintendent of maintenance of a pretty good sized mining company, the biggest one in this area, which is pretty far, about like making colonel in the army. There’s SOMETHING to be said for a Puritan work ethic and living according to the rules laid out in that old KJB, such as living modestly, and staying sober, etc.
( He can’t really be faulted on that,not many kids here managed to get to and thru high school back then, except the kids of the local elite. There wasn’t any local route bus, and they needed to go to work, and there was no obvious benefit to be had from going on to school, given that local employers paid high school grads the same money they paid dropouts. There’s an interesting parallel today, involving the question of whether it’s actually worth it to send a hell of a lot of kids to college to major in partying and English or art or whatever, but with the opportunity to go flipped from hard to easy. )
IGNORANCE is his problem, rather than a lack of brains. It’s extremely easy to believe what you want to believe, when you ignore any information coming from the opposition camp, and you perceive that the opposition is your enemy.
It’s easy to make fun of Christians and other religious people, but I would remind those who do that the vast majority of the wisest men who ever put their thoughts in writing, throughout history, up until after Darwin’s time, believed in a god or gods. There is ZERO reason an intelligent man who lacks any training in the sciences shouldn’t believe in a god.
Such a man believes whatever the people he looks up to as being his intellectual superiors and leaders believes, and if he doesn’t know any science, he has no more reason to trust scientists than he does preachers and politicians who talk to his liking.
So far as that goes, there is not much in the way of REAL reasons to believe there are no gods . A lack of evidence is not evidence of absence. There might be gods that don’t give a flying fuck about us and this planet. Gods wouldn’t necessarily even be aware that we EXIST. With an entire universe available for their edification and amusement, why should they keep an eye on one little rock orbiting one star in the backwaters of one out of billions of galaxies ?
Maybe some forms of life have evolved to the point that they ARE gods, from our perspective.Maybe they’ve shed most or all of their physical existence as biological entities and live now as a store and flow of information inside super powerful computers that can run entire industrial economies to reproduce new computers as needed as replacement homes. I don’t believe this sort of stuff, I believe it’s at least theoretically possible that it such things can be. A hell of a lot of real scientists, as opposed to an amateur such as yours truly, believe this is possible.
The REAL question is this one. Where did it all start? Talking about a Big Bang doesn’t really answer that question, because there must have been SOMETHING preceding the BB.
I conclude that we will never have an ultimate answer, because I don’t believe our brains are so constructed as to cope with this sort of problem, that no matter how far we pursue particle physics, etc, there will always be the question WHAT BEFORE THAT, where and how and from what does THIS ONE ORIGINATE?
OFM, get over it, he has a computer. He can type in “great basin” in Google and get the answer in a second. But he excluded himself from the conversation when he (or she, or it) found it uninteresting. So why put it out in the public view? Either troll, bot or just someone who likes to see himself talk.
As far as Christians go, I have never found one I can trust.
My old Daddy is a true blue Christian, and he would rather be horsewhipped than to tell a lie, or take advantage of anybody for any reason. I know more than a few others.
I generally have a LOT of respect for you, GF, but you are talking propaganda, or else displaying your own lack of intimate contact with any of the tens of millions of REAL Christians in this country, as opposed to television preachers and politicians, etc, who make a career out of EXPLOITING Christianity and Christians.
Wow, you really jumped off the ledge on that leap of “logic”.
I was raised Christian and pursued it for quite a while but one of the main reasons I don’t consider it is the way the Christians actually act. They do not practice what they preach.
The fundamentalists would turn on you in an instant since they follow higher authority only and know little about trust and loyalty.
Sounds like your dad was like mine, a great man.
Not saying there are not great moral and ethical ideas within the Christian religion, just saying that of the hundreds I have known well and the thousands I have worked around, I do not find them trustworthy. In fact they carry the cross and are some very poor examples of morals and ethics.
Edit: I also find Christians often show a high degree of intolerance for others.
Mac
Some powerful stuff in that comment.
Hope your relative chooses to continue visiting your father, foregoing disruptive (fruitless?) conversations along the way.
Robert Pirsig had an IQ measured over 200.
Bright guy with the highest of integrity.
He not only somewhat stumbled into a proof of the existence of that which we call god, he used his immense resources of rationality to do so.
Quite an accomplishment, many think.
Unfortunately, he continued along the path of attempting to understand the nature of that which we call god … leading to his insanity, institutionalization, and electroshock therapy. (Thus, validating somewhat, your concluding statement.
Putting aside this god stuff, for the moment, another huge achievement of Pirsig’s was pointing out how, exactly, Reason has assumed its self-appointed position at the apex in the hierarchy of human characteristics.
Clearly, in western cultures, anything supra, ir, non rational is, a priori, not worthy of serious consideration.
Rationality has firmly declared it so.
Good stuff, Mac, as always.
That was such an excellent discussion we just had on the paleo climate of the Great Basin, it’s relationship to the Arctic and the methods used to collect the data. Very fulfilling. Thanks.
OFM – there doesn’t have to have been something before this, one theory is explained here in terms of “virtual quantum particles” if I remember the name correctly:
A Universe from Nothing: Why There Is Something Rather than Nothing by Lawrence M. Krauss and Richard Dawkins
Really there only has to be the laws of probability.
George, my son insisted that I read that book. It was by Krauss, Dawkins was not a co-author. I bought the audible edition and listened to it. Then I bought the paperback and read it. It was a disappointment.
Krauss argues that the universe popped out of nothing because that “nothing” was unstable and that instability allowed the universe just to pop into existence. Krauss, in the book, completely ignored the fine-tuning problem. He did address it in several Youtube videos later but his explanation was the “multiverse” theory. That is “billions” of universes have popped into existence, therefore, it is likely that one of them had the laws, subatomic particles, and forces that allowed the formation of stars, allowed them to explode and form all the heavier elements that later evolved into second generation stars and planets and later life.
And that, the multiverse theory, is the only theory that any cosmologists have to explain the fine-tuning problem. But some cosmologists and physicists just ain’t buying it. Physicists Bruce Rosenblum and Fred Kuttner in their book “Quantum Enigma” had a lot to say on that matter. I have quoted a passage from the book below, bold mine.
But during that split second before our “familiar” quarks and electrons came into existence, the Big Bang had to be finely tuned to produce a universe in which we could live. Quite finely tuned! Theories vary. According to one, if the initial conditions of the universe were chosen randomly, there would be one chance in 10 to the 120th (that’s one with 120 zeros after it) that the universe would allow life. Cosmologist and consciousness theorist Roger Penrose has it vastly more unlikely: The exponent he suggests is 10 to the 123rd. (It’s hard to comprehend the meaning of a number that big.) By any such estimate, the chance that a livable universe like ours would be created is far less than the chance of randomly picking a particular single atom out of all atoms in the universe.
Can you accept odds like that as a coincidence?
British cosmologists Roger Penrose is one of the must respected cosmologist in the world. Check out his Youtube videos if you doubt me. Yes, it may have been possible for something to pop out of nothing, but not something so finely tuned as the laws, particles, and conditions that came into existence in the first second of the big bang.
So what does one chance in however many mean when time doesn’t exist yet?
I think Dawkins wrote a foreword for it that got more publicity than the book itself, so I guess Amazon use him for advertising.
My question is, what existed before time, before the big bang, before god (whoever you might conceive him/her to be) or before any of that? The King James Bible starts in Genesis 1:1, “In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth.” Next question, who or what created God?
To me the big bang theory raises more questions than it answers, like what exactly is it that exploded and what happened to get “it” to the state where it exploded? I am content to stare into space, looking at what existed as far back as we can see. I think it is fun to unravel the mysteries of the universe insofar as we can but, I am also satisfied that some things are unknowable.
It is similar to how I concur with Ron that, interstellar travel by living organisms is just about impossible, unless such organisms can live for millions of years and even then, they would have to have unimaginably large fuel or energy stocks to accelerate and decelerate their craft between stops.
Maybe we should try and figure out how to understand dolphin language, show them what we know and ask them what they think? 😉
So what does one chance in however many mean when time doesn’t exist yet?
If 1, followed by 123 zeros universes existed, then time existed for all those universes. But saying that many universes existed and we were the one that…. well that is just totally absurd. That is billions of billions of times more than there are sub-atomic particles in the universe.
The point is George, that such fine tuning is beyond possible probability. You can’t get around such an improbability by saying that time did not yet exist. That is an out that no cosmologists or physicists have yet dared to use. They all know better. True, they posit the multiverse theory but none use such numbers of probability, or more correctly improbability. If they did then that would blow their theory right out of the water.
Actually the number of other possibilities is infinite. But that is a point I will make later.
One more very important point. This has not one goddamn thing to do with religion.
But is it “beyond possibility” only in our frame of reference – i.e. as we understand time and space? In out frame probability really goes with time – “the chance of something happening is xxx” has some kind of time frame implicit in it. Quantum theory has numbers all over the place with 10e-Y, where Y is very big, and relativity has 10eZ, where Z is very big also. We don’t have brains evolved that can even begin to understand things about three orders of magnitude either way of what we are familiar with. I seem to remember reading somewhere that there is no reason time couldn’t go backwards, in an entropic sense (and possibly we are the ones backwards), based on the maths – it just has to keep going the way it started.
I don’t know the answer by the way, but it’s a great philosophical area which is getting suppressed all the time by (I think) fear, or maybe just weariness, of the evangelical crowd. I do think that the fact that the universe has zero net energy (gravity wells = everything else), or at least that’s the latest research indication, means there was likely nothing before. Why? Maybe not multiverses even though they make great fiction, but the search goes on I think.
Hi George,
Maybe you’re right. But this is bullshit in my not altogether humble opinion.
I know a little probability theory, or used to. I’ve forgotten almost all the math I ever learned.
Virtual quantum particles aren’t going to just magically appear, unless the laws of conservation of mass and energy are overturned,or so sharply restated that they will have to be renamed at the very least. There must be some prevailing conditions of some sort for this to happen. The PRE existence of energy in some unknown form perhaps? Off mass in some unknown form?
So far as I know all this sort of stuff , at present, is no more and no less than informed speculation on the part of physicists, who have yet to produce any well accepted PROOF of it???? Don’t get me wrong, I’m all in favor of their work being well supported, because it might eventually lead to something important,maybe something of world class importance, a new world. And if it doesn’t, at least we will be in the same position as Edison when asked about his failure to invent a working electric light after eight thousand attempts, IIRC.
What he said was that we now know eight thousand things that WON’T work, lol.
Now of course our understanding of conservation of mass and energy may be flawed, and IS flawed, for all I know. I do think that’s the case.
THIS point proves my larger point. We circle around the truth, if there is such a thing as an ultimate truth, like coon dogs circling and criss crossing a patch of woods, having determined to their satisfaction that the coon is up one of the trees in that particular patch. Gradually scientists and coon dogs narrow down the possibilities and discover if not THE truth, a closer approximation of the truth.
There’s another layer to the onion, and anybody who REALLY believes otherwise , in my humble opinion, is guilty of hubris or something, hubris is not the right word exactly.
And if and when physicists come to understand this layer, there will be another inside it.
I may be wrong, but I’m convinced nobody can PROVE me wrong. Not now, anyway. And not likely anytime before I decompose.
And even if some physicist with a trillion dollar laboratory eventually produces a quantum particle from apparently nothing at all, I’m free to believe he’s just living high on the hog on grant money, lol. 😉
All the nose in the air smarter than religious people tell us there’s no NEED to believe in God or gods, because there is no evidence demonstrating His or HER or IT’s existence.
I agree.
We might as well just start with the existence of matter and energy as the existence of God, or vice versa, since we don’t REALLY know if there’s a God or not. It’s no more ridiculous to presume the existence of a god than it is to presume the existence of a universe just coming into existence out of the socalled blue, except that we can SEE the universe.
An absence of evidence is not necessarily good evidence of absence.
Personally as a practical matter I’m a hard core Darwinist, and an atheist, but when I get down to splitting hairs, I’m an agnostic. I’m pretty sure there is no God or gods, but there’s no way I can be mathematically one hundred percent certain of that.
The physicists who posit something from nothing can’t ever be absolutely sure they’re right.
It’s not my idea and I’m not right or wrong it’s just something people are working on. I was just disagreeing with you saying there “had to be something before”. That doesn’t seem evident to me at all.
It’s seems to be an area where quantum physics meets relativity so it’s no wonder they are having problems.
It never enters my head that there may be a god, and hasn’t for as long as I can remember, so I can’t really follow some of your musings and internal discussions on the matter. I can appreciate he/she/it (or rather “religion” in one way or another) is important to a lot of people, though I think much of the time they don’t actually know, or care much, what they are really believing in. I don’t really care until they start getting evangelical and holier than though about it – and really that happens nowhere in the western world that I have ever visited except rural USA and the internet.
Yeah, that’s the problem George. Everyone associates some kind of intelligence or consciousness in the creation of the universe, with religion. Religion has to stick its ugly head into every possible opening. That is totally unnecessary and a fraud. It has absolutely nothing to do with religion.
That is the very reason that the fine tuning problem is countered with that very stupid multiverse theory. The cosmologists are so damn afraid of religion that any stupid theory is more appealing to them than admitting that it could not happen just by chance.
I wrote the above without really reading this – but I agree, except I think it could happen just by chance.
I think it could happen just by chance.
By chance? Cosmologist Sir Roger Penrose says the odds of it happening just by chance is one in 10 to the 123rd power. The number of atoms in the universe is 10 to the 82nd power. Soooooo?????
Oh, one more thing, no physicists or cosmologists denies that the universe is very finely tuned. They just say that so many universes have popped into existence that one of them was bound to have the perfect conditions that allowed stars and life to evolve.
10 to the 123rd power. Now that is one hell of a lot of universes to pop int existence.
But he might be wrong.
George, no cosmologist or physicists deny that the universe is very finely tuned. Do you think they are all wrong.
The only debate is about the odds. Is it 10 to the 123rd power or 10 to the 120th power? Or what are the odds?
I will tell you what I think the odds are, they are infinite. How many possible subatomic particles could possibly pop into existence that are not electrons? How many possible subatomic particles could possibly pop into existence that are not up quarks with exactly 2/3 the charge of an electron but in the opposite direction? How many subatomic particles could possibly pop into existence that are not down quarks with exactly 1/3 the charge of the electron? How many charges could possibly pop into existence that are not gravity or the magnetic force or the strong or weak nuclear force? The number in every case is infinite! And we have not even touched the cosmological constant, or dark matter, or dark energy, all which had to just pop into existence in just the right amount and with the right force.
No George, the odds against of all these things happening, in just the right amount with just the right force is infinite! 10 to the 123rd power is just way, way, too small.
The formation of unstable particles would revert to photons again, while stable ones would be retained. It’s how the universe works, randomness within distributions. The selection process was due to stable particles no longer participating (the precipitate). All other particles dissipated.
Voila, matter forms in the universe of very intense photons and a high degree of variability.
Penrose’s is not the only theory – as you said above. It’s pretty early days in an extremely complicated field so saying things like “impossible” is a bit premature to me. Penrose has a few other ideas that haven’t been accepted in the main stream, he’s almost 90 I think and emeritus, and that’s the sort of thing you should be doing then – i.e. throwing out outre ideas and seeing what sticks.
The problem with gods is that invoking gods to solve issues of existence and complexity don’t actually help with those issues at all, because you end up having to ask yourself who or what created the gods.
So you have a concept you don’t have any evidence for, and which explains nothing, so why bother?
It’s turtles all the way down!!
Why bother? Because the universe is so unbelievably fine tuned that it demands an explanation. Ask why the multiverse theory was ever dreamed up. Because they bothered, because the fine tuning problem demanded an explanation. They all bothered. And to George, Penrose is not the only physicists or cosmologist that says the universe is very finely tuned. They all say that. Most of them use the multiverse theory to try to explain it. A few do not.
The multiverse theory: The theory that trillions and trillions of universes all just popped out of nothing. Therefore it could be expected that one of them would be so finely tuned like our universe.
Hi OFM,
We assume the laws of conservation of mass and energy are always true and always have been.
Either the universe has always existed or it hasn’t, we do not really know.
Perhaps the universe existed in some other state prior to the big bang, but an underlying assumption in all the analyses is that mass and energy are conserved because that is what we seem to observe. Though to sustain this assumption we need to invent dark matter and dark energy which make up 96% of the theoretical matter in the universe in order to match observation with theory.
There is much that is not understood, that much is plain.
Did your mother have any children that lived?
You are right, it is about as interesting as the scientific methods used to come to this conclusion…
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01225-9
Burial-induced oxygen-isotope re-equilibration of fossil foraminifera explains ocean paleotemperature paradoxes
Our results suggest that the late Cretaceous and Paleogene deep-ocean and high-latitude surface-ocean temperatures were significantly lower than is generally accepted, thereby explaining the paradox of the low equator-to-pole surface-ocean thermal gradient inferred for these periods.
‘Interesting’ is in the mind of the interested, the key word being mind apparently most people tend to waste theirs, despite the suggestion that doing so is a terrible thing…
.
If someone comments on something doesn’t that mean they must find it interesting on some level – maybe not the expected one though, so to say it’s uninteresting is … what exactly – at least an oxymoron I think?
(ps I thought the pun would come out a bit better when I started)
You just need a good graphic to underscore the pun…
.
Yeah, but it was supposed to be a pun on oxygen as well.
Well, even though it isn’t exactly O2 that might still work for passing lots of gas, (pun intended) 😉
Was just at Summer Lake in Oregon yesterday, and fly fishing the Chewaucan River that actually drains into Lake Abert, another large, shallow, alkali lake in Lake County, Oregon.
9 miles of river to myself, not another person. Redband Trout, wild and willing.
I’m going to miss this environment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Abert
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_Lake_(Oregon)
So how much does it cost an out of state person to get the necessary permits, and transportation from the nearest large town or city and rent a room or camp out on the Chewaucan for a week, if you do it on the cheap?
One of my fondest dreams has been to fish some of the remaining more or less pristine western rivers, but I’m thinking now my old Daddy may live so long I won’t be physically able to do so when he finally departs this old vale of tears.
Camping is free–
Local accommodations in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paisley,_Oregon population 243.
Bend Oregon is the closest “Big City”, about 150 miles away.
I’m just discovering and exploring the Great Basin area of Oregon.
The Steens are off the chart beautiful:
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/travel/outdoors/2014/10/03/oregon-top-best-hikes-steens-mountain/16514287/?from=global&sessionKey=&autologin=
They say timing is everything. Our timing could not be better (or worse) since the natural cooling of the Earth is minimal in this time period due to the near circular character of orbit. So the next glaciation might not have happened anyway and we have just taken the icing off the cake by dumping a lot of CO2 at the latest NH minimum insolation event (which was not very minimal compared to others in the past). Just so happens NH insolation will be on the rise during the higher CO2 period, just to top off things.
An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?
The small amplitude of future
insolation variations is exceptional.
One of the few past
analogs (13) occurred at about
400,000 years before the present,
overlapping part of MIS-
11. Then and now, very low eccentricity
values coincided
with the minima of the
400,000-year eccentricity cycle.
Eccentricity will reach almost
zero within the next
25,000 years, damping the
variations of precession considerably.
Simulations with a two-dimensional
climate model (14),
forced with insolation and CO2
variations over the next
100,000 years, provide an insight
into the possible consequences
of this rare phenomenon.
Most CO2 scenarios
(15) led to an exceptionally
long interglacial from 5000
years before the present to
50,000 years from now
ftp://ftp.soest.hawaii.edu/engels/Stanley/Textbook_update/Science_297/Berger-02.pdf
How Amazon founder Jeff Bezos went from the son of a teen mom to the world’s richest person
Catherine Clifford | 9 Hours Ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/27/how-amazon-founder-jeff-bezos-went-from-the-son-of-a-teen-mom-to-the-worlds-richest-person.html
On Friday, Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos became the richest person in the world.
Worth more than $90 billion, according to Forbes, he took the top spot from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, thanks to recent jumps in the value of Amazon stock after an impressive quarterly financial report.
But Bezos hasn’t always been the billionaire titan he is today. He was born the son of a 16-year-old mom and deadbeat dad. And he didn’t set out to be the CEO of an e-commerce juggernaut.
I love cats.
They make great gloves.
A global food crisis may be less than a decade away
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzA6jRYjVQs
Anybody who truly knows anything about the natural world and politics and the way things happen by chance must understand that there could be a global food crisis NEXT year.
The odds of any given staple crop failing in any given year, over a very large area, are pretty low, for reasons other than drought, probably no more than one or two percent.
But we don’t know for sure, because with more and more people traveling more and more, we could find ourselves dealing with a new superbug spread willy nilly on somebody’s shoes or luggage ornamental plant, all over a continent, maybe the world, a super bug that LOVES wheat, or corn, or rice, or soybeans, any day. It could take years to breed and produce replacement cultivars. Maybe too many years, considering the world is effectively a powder key already.
If you had watched the video you would realize she was not talking about disease or bugs. Her company has been looking at production increases versus demand increases. Production increases are lagging demand increases, ergo, a shortfall of food. No act of god involved.
Paging Thomas Malthus.
Some jet stream/blocking patterns could throw a wrench in the works on very short notice.
On the weather depends the harvest.
On the harvest depends everything.
Certainly we expect changes in the future, some severe dependent upon region. However, without any changes in production due to climate or other natural phenomenon, the global food output ends up short as we stay on population trajectory.
I understand. I have watched several videos and read countless articles to this effect, or that come to similar conclusions, the only real difference being the time frame.
My personal professional opinion is that so long as farmers globally can put their hands on the necessary inputs, namely fuel, machinery, fertilizer, pesticides, shipping containers ( boxes and bags), and trucks, etc, there’s not much risk of a major food shortfall globally within the next ten years, unless the climate heats up REALLY fast, or war or something of that nature interferes. There are still forests, and still wetlands, and even highway medians, to be cleared and put to the plow, and while the so called Green Revolution has slowed dramatically, it has not yet peaked.
SO LONG as we don’t have a new super bug problem pop up in a staple crop, I mean.
I give you the example of the American chestnut tree, which was once THE linchpin species in our eastern hardwood forests, and our most valuable single species by far, in terms of both food and lumber production.It lasted outdoors without preservatives fifty years or longer!!!!!!!! It’s been about century now , and we are just now able to start replacing that tree with something equivalent, one with a built in resistance to the blight due to breeding it in.
And the people who OUGHT to be able to best understand this sort of problem, namely well intentioned environmental activists, are mostly at the forefront of the mob trying to lynch the scientists who are trying to raise the genetic engineering baby up into a strong child, so to speak.
( Now as Fred occasionally points out, it wouldn’t bother HIM at all if they took their pitchforks to the owners and managers of the giant corporations trying and so far succeeding in monopolizing this technology, lol. It should be in the public domain, and tightly regulated, but not regulated out of existence. )
Regional shortfalls are already happening and may reach catastrophic levels. I have posted numerous comments about people being forced to migrate in some cases due to climate problems, and whether the ones of us with plenty of food will be willing to donate it on the grand scale with little or no likelihood of ever being paid for it.
WILL Yankees give up their meat heavy diet, and some of their dogs and cats, in order to supply hundreds of millions of people with something to eat, by diverting our grain production from feeding cows, hogs, and chickens and eating bread, potatoes and beans???
I don’t know. I don’t eat much meat at all anymore, understanding that it’s not good for me, in terms of my personal health, to eat a lot of meat. On the other hand, most of the people I know would break out their pitchforks and torches if they couldn’t easily buy a LOT more meat than is good for them, lol. Several times more, in fact. And more potato chips and ice cream and soda pop, and cookies and cakes and all the other junk that fills up so many stores these days.
All that stuff is slow poison. Too much meat is slow poison, even when you are still growing up.More than a few kids only twenty one years old these days already have cardiovascular problems due to their diets.
And I have occasionally pointed out that the large carry over of staple grains we used to have from one year to the next no longer exist. A major failure across a wide area of any staple crop could result in some REAL troubles, and not just for the people who live there.
Suppose the DUST BOWL repeats ? We Yankees could continue to eat ok, but if something equivalent happens in Asia……..
Looks like we have a large amount of food insecurity already in the world.
http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp291270.pdf?_ga=2.142004082.1704461729.1509300376-1493624280.1509300376
Butter prices up by a factor of three, the French are concerned with Sole Meuniere supplies.
Want to see some crazy traffic?
What a driverless world could look like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlLFK8oSNEM
Late October surface melt
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
http://pamola.um.maine.edu/fcst_frames/GFS-025deg/5-day/GFS-025deg_ARC-LEA_T2_max_5-day.png
Interesting new paper finding local influence on W Greenland surface melt from Baffin Bay sea ice anom
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/2363/2017/tc-11-2363-2017.html
Latest tweet from Javier
https://mobile.twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/924009074810851331
In spite of global warming, winter is coming early to the north central states and Midwest. Look at that –EPO!
In the meantime, I’m still working outside in a short sleeved t shirt in the mountains in Virginia. And most of the southwest is baking to a crisp.
It’s the AVERAGE that counts, Mr Bob.
And the average is creeping up, right along.
It’s the AVERAGE that counts, Mr Bob.
Minor quibble! Apparently Mr Bob lives under a rock someplace disconnected from the rest of the planet.
It’s the GLOBAL AVERAGE that counts, Mr Bob.
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Maximum.aspx
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Hey Bob! What was the fourth word in your post? Hint: Global. You should get out more. It’s easy to suppose that you’re standing in the center of all that matters.
I’m pretty sure Bob Frisky won’t be splitting the atom, or passing grade 10 math for that matter.
Bob Frisky, your chosen charts and your interpretation seems to indicate that winter will last approximately ten days, which actually does agree with a medium term forecast that has a relative heat wave over a lot of the US next Sunday.
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/10/interstellar-solar-system-asteroid-comet-space-science/
Astronomers have had the means to detect such visitors for only the last couple of decades or so, and there might actually be one passing thru once every decade or century.
It’s conceivable that one of them came from a place with life,and hit this Earth, and seeded life here. It’s my under standing that cosmic collisions can throw bits and pieces of planets into space without necessarily heating them to the point that living organisms, or viruses, are destroyed.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/first-charges-filed-u-special-counsel-muellers-russia-004744178.html
“WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A federal grand jury on Friday approved the first charges in the investigation into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, a source briefed on the matter told Reuters.”
“Special counsel Robert Mueller, a former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, is investigating whether Trump campaign officials colluded with those Russian efforts.”
“”If the Special Counsel finds it necessary and appropriate, the Special Counsel is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising from the investigation of these matters,” Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein said in a May 17 letter appointing Mueller.”
Now old HB will never acknowledge that the FBI was simply doing its job investigating HRC and her awesomely dangerous homebrew email system, etc, and real trumpsters will never admit the FBI and the special prosecutor are doing their jobs NOW in investigating the Trump administration.
I’m now cautiously hopeful that Mueller or some ambitious journalist will uncover enough dirt on Trump and his buddies that they can be forced out of office. That’s still a long shot, but it’s not such a long shot now that the D’s will can recapture the Senate.
Whether that happens may depend on how many D Lite and middle of the road types with tons of money in the stock market vote R in the midterms, based on the markets. Not too many real working class people, and that’s MOST of us, have much if anything in the stock market.
DELINGPOLE: AN IMPERTINENT PUP ATE MY HOMEWORK
https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2017/10/an-impertinent-pup-ate-his-homework.html
“It is not my job to sit down and read peer-reviewed papers because I simply haven’t got the time…”
James Delingpole, 2011 BBC interview with
Royal Society president Sir Paul Nurse
“I feel a bit of an imposter talking about the science. I’m not a scientist, you may be aware. I read English Literature.”
James Delingpole
HYPERTHERMALS
Around 50m years ago, Earth was struck by a series of short-term phases of rapid global warming, known collectively as “hyperthermals”.
“I think there are important things to learn from all kinds of time periods but certainly the PETM stands out in terms of rate of warming. Although, carbon input during the PETM was likely still 10 times as slow as in the modern [era], this is still the closest we can get in the geological record. Therefore, the PETM is often considered a nice analogue, although we all realise the analogy isn’t perfect.”
https://www.carbonbrief.org/hyperthermals-what-can-they-tell-us-about-modern-global-warming
Anybody else notice that Trump is starting to resemble the Gestapo chap from Raiders of the Lost Ark when his face started melting. Trumps skin seems to be going the same way. I don’t like the chap at all but he seems to be noticeably aging faster than any of the recent ones, all of whom went pretty quick, and he had a head start on them all as well. I’m not sure I’d wish that on anyone.
I’m not all that concerned about his skin, it’s his rapidly deteriorating brain cells that I’m really worried about.
The Little Bighorn Basin in Wyoming turns out to be an important area for understanding past climate change.
New understanding to past global warming events: Hyperthermal events may be triggered by warming
A series of global warming events called hyperthermals that occurred more than 50 million years ago had a similar origin to a much larger hyperthermal of the period, the Pelaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), new research has found. The findings, published in Nature Geoscience online on April 1, 2012, represent a breakthrough in understanding the major “burp” of carbon, equivalent to burning the entire reservoir of fossil fuels on Earth, that occurred during the PETM.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120402124442.htm
The findings, published in Nature Geoscience online on April 1, 2012, represent a breakthrough in understanding the major “burp” of carbon, equivalent to burning the entire reservoir of fossil fuels on Earth, that occurred during the PETM.
COOL! Um, maybe just interesting science. Well admittedly not quite as interesting as troglodytes butting heads and giving each other concussions on a football field.
BUT there were no troglodytes back 50 mya driving around in SUVs and PUs with plastic bull testicles hanging from their trailer hitches, which means that troglodytes can’t possibly be having any effect on climate in the present, right?
Hmm, now what do you suppose would happen if it turns out troglodytes burning carbon are having a major impact on the climate and suddenly for some reason there is a major carbon burp on top of that? I guess ‘God’ wouldn’t let that happen, eh?
Hmm, maybe that’s what God’s plan really is…
I guess we live in interesting times, enjoy it while it lasts.
God is busy right now but his assistant manager Mother Nature is quite willing and able to take care of the situation.
Pesky species messing with atmosphere?
Response: MN messes more with the atmosphere.
Result: No more pesky species problems.
It’s crude but so is fumigating a house.
It’s crude but so is fumigating a house.
Yeah, down here where I live it tends to kill all the cockroaches and the geckos. I once suggested to a neighbor who had a roach problem in his house, that instead of fumigating, he could release a couple hundred scorpions which would leave on their own and move to the neighbor’s house once they ran out of food at his. He went with the fumigation. Go figure! I guess I’ll never really understand my fellow humans… 😉
Most of them are wimps.
I remember being out in the Saguaro National Park at night. While my guided camera outfit was taking long exposure photos of Halley’s comet, I was flipping over rocks trying to find scorpions. Didn’t find any.
Had to be satisfied finding Horseshoe Crabs along the Jersey coast. They look plenty weird.
Early 21st century communications device
Found in: Miami Basin
25.7713° N, 80.1919° W
Depth found: 28 meters
Date found: August 27, 3149
Found by: Danika Ruiz Ocovská
Note: Pseudo Trilobites abound at this location
.
Watch out for these
No, they should watch out for me! Yum!
http://eattheplanet.org/land-shrimp-a-small-relative-of-our-favorite-seafood/
Edibility and Culinary Use
Many people do not know that pill bugs are edible. Not only are they edible but from my experience some of them do in fact taste similar to shrimp. Any bug should be cooked before eaten, but some people eat them raw. They make a great sauce, or they can be added to soup. There are a lot of other ways to cook them including, mixed with, dough, egg, or rice.
Health Benefits
The high protein content of bugs is a known benefit, but there is one more known benefit to eating these little guys. There shells are high in calcium carbonate which is the primary component used in antacids, so pill bugs may be helpful for heartburn and calming upset stomachs.
I just didn’t want you to step on those cute little creatures.
Go catch some fish or scorpions.
Rapid Acidification of the Ocean During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) has been attributed to the
rapid release of È2000 109 metric tons of carbon in the form of methane. In
theory, oxidation and ocean absorption of this carbon should have lowered
deep-sea pH, thereby triggering a rapid (G10,000-year) shoaling of the calcite
compensation depth (CCD), followed by gradual recovery. Here we present
geochemical data from five new South Atlantic deep-sea sections that
constrain the timing and extent of massive sea-floor carbonate dissolution
coincident with the PETM. The sections, from between 2.7 and 4.8 kilometers
water depth, are marked by a prominent clay layer, the character of which
indicates that the CCD shoaled rapidly (G10,000 years) by more than 2
kilometers and recovered gradually (9100,000 years). These findings indicate
that a large mass of carbon (d2000 109 metric tons of carbon) dissolved in
the ocean at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary and that permanent sequestration
of this carbon occurred through silicate weathering feedback.
http://www.whoi.edu/cms/files/zachos05sci_133124.pdf
Interesting… 😉
Unless humans find viable ways to control climate, changes like that are essentially permanent from a human point of view. Minimum orbital eccentricity is reached in year 29,000, reducing orbital effects. About 120,000 years from now orbital eccentricity will have surpassed the current value and head for a doubling. Considering the r-squared law that is a quadrupling of the energy changes we see now. So not long after the atmosphere has returned to “normal” the orbital parameters do their work. 🙂
It is quite enjoyable at times to observe a true believer ecoevangelical. They so desperately want the earth to be destroyed just so they can tell everybody “I told you so.” Yet earth continues to be uncooperative, although that’s to be expected when the chosen science is primarily ideologically driven above anything else.
And what exactly is the ideology that is driving, “the chosen science” pray tell?
Are we to wait until weather and temperature records are eclipsing all of those in recorded human history, before we try and figure out what the hell is happening and why?
Last question. Did you learn any science past grade school or even in grade school that qualifies you to comment on the subject?
The ideology is liberalism and socialism wrapped up into a neat package masquerading as environmental activism. Here are a couple of choice quotes from back in the 1980’s when the movement started to take shape.
From 1989, Stephen Schneider was interviewed in Discover Magazine: “We have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have.…Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”
From 1988, Democratic Senator Timothy Wirth (of Colorado) in committee testimony: “We’ve got to…try to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong…we will be doing the right thing anyway in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”
This shows both academic dishonesty as well as disregard for the scientific method. If one claims to be practicing science under such conditions, their science is simply illegitimate. Period.
My own credentials are of little relevance here, however I did study several semesters of college level meteorology when I was getting my Bachelor’s Degree.
Please enlighten me as to how this liberal, socialist ideology is “driving” the science outside of almost every jurisdiction outside of the US and Australia? (Note that in the US, where the most money is being spent to discredit the science, most climate scientists agree with the global consensus.)
You pick two quotes and use them to invalidate the consensus of an entire field of study?
You sir are living in a bubble, a very special kind of special!
Let me just remind regulars here and any casual passers by, who’s ideas Steven Haner is propagating in this forum, the happy billionaires pictured below!
Well, the first question is whether the quotes are correct!
A quick internet search only found a circular series of denier references.
They cannot see, they refuse to listen, thought is limited, all the destruction and death that has and is occurring is nothing to them. They are not really alive, though they be animated.
Just another case of pre-zombification. Right in time for the Halloween Parade. Bring them on.
Thanks for coming out short bus.
Ned posts here under several monikers
https://mobile.twitter.com/NikolovScience
As climate change predictions come true those that made them will be accused by deniers of moral weakness for wanting it. Ned is your typical American variety fucking moron.
The increase in anti-climate chatter from the FF monkeys is a sign they are very worried. A case of high anxiety that their profits will fall and the world won’t go their way.
The chilling side of coal.
http://indianexpress.com/article/technology/science/coal-formation-almost-turned-earth-into-a-snowball-study-4883850/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-28/how-many-barrels-oil-are-needed-mine-one-bitcoin
20 BOE to mine a bitcoin? The Fed printing presses could TEOTWAWKI in next 100 days? Seems like many may freeze even with Climate Chaos.
Exceptional warmth for the time of year has developed across most of Alaska, putting a halt on freeze-up and even melting away the early snow cover in places in the past couple of days. Most of the state has seen temperatures above freezing, including parts of the North Slope today; 37°F was observed on the Sag River at 69°N this afternoon.
http://ak-wx.blogspot.ca/2017/10/thaw-and-rain.html?m=1
The problem with words is they need scalers. If I say “that price changed” or “the weather changed” those are really low level and expected changes. If I say “a nuclear missile is on the way to Los Angeles” that is a much higher level and would be really bad for those in that region.
Now we could use bold or bigger text but that would not really cover YOU CHANGED THE ATMOSPHERE!!!!.
Since the atmosphere controls 70 percent of the energy into and out of earth system, changing it is a major global change AFFECTING EVERYTHING AND EVERYONE. To make the words big enough to fit the actual magnitude of change, they would fill several screens. It should also flash bright red and a virtual hand should come out of the screen and slap the viewer repeatedly.
So there is no way to express the magnitude of certain changes on the written page.
And just saying “really really big” doesn’t work because the pres uses that a lot.
Study finds ancient oceans were much colder than previously thought, implying global warming is unprecedented within the last 100 million years:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01225-9
If the oceans were much colder than previously thought, say 3 C colder than previous estimates (they don’t give a number so I am guessing here), wouldn’t that suggest that the Global temperatures were also colder in the past (maybe by 3 C or more as the land temperature tends to change more than global temperature). That would suggest that despite significant changes in forcing from changes in radiative forcing due to solar output and greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere over the past 100 million years, that global temperature has been relatively stable (relative to previous estimates).
That would suggest that Earth System sensitivity estimates might be too high rather than too low. Unless there are new estimates of atmospheric greenhouse gas levels in light of this new research.
Later freezes and earlier thaws.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a28819/winter-climate-change/
Strongly negative electricity prices in Germany are causing a shutdown of coal and nuclear production.
https://www.energy-charts.de/energy.htm?source=all-sources&period=daily&year=2017&week=43
Prices of off the chart
https://www.energy-charts.de/price.htm
That’s great news about the coal burning reduction.
Nonlinear climatic sensitivity to greenhouse gases over past 4 glacial/interglacial cycles
Here, we combine a new sea surface temperature record spanning the last 360,000 years from the southern Western Pacific Warm Pool with records from five previous studies in the equatorial Pacific to document the nonlinear relationship between climatic sensitivity and GHG levels over the past four glacial/interglacial cycles. The sensitivity of the responses to GHG concentrations rises dramatically by a factor of 2–4 at atmospheric CO2 levels of >220 ppm
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-04031-x.
The sensitivity of the responses to GHG concentrations rises dramatically by a factor of 2–4 at atmospheric CO2 levels of >220 ppm
I haven’t read the paper yet but hoping the sensitivity increase doesn’t turn out to be logarithmic. 400 ppm plus, yikes! So far not much that I’ve seen relating to the climate system has turned out to be linear…
As an undergraduate student (Engineering Physics) we were always being reminded that it was normal for things to become interesting when they became nonlinear. Why should it be any different with climate? For that matter, why would climate change, with so many variables involved, be a linear process? Of course idiots like Javier will call it alarmism, a rather unscientific word, but so be it. BTW, the paper is very interesting.
I think I read somewhere that of all the CO2 added to the atmosphere by man from 1750 to 2010 by burning fossil fuel 25% of that CO2 total was added between 2000 and 2010. If that is true then it seems to me that climate change will start moving along quite quickly in the near future.
Well one thing for sure, we can’t rely on silicate weathering to get us out of this situation. Takes way too long.
Fred, just examine the Keeling curve, it’s not a straight line, it’s a curve with an upward inflection. The other thing is that that a number of feedbacks do not depend on CO2 level, though the temperature rise they cause will feed more CO2 into the atmosphere.
When several feedbacks become self-sustaining then the interactions will go fully non-linear. I suspect the snow-ice albedo changes will accelerate, thus snowballing the other feedbacks. Reduction of atmospheric pollution might cause a few other feedbacks to go full self-sustaining.
Wind turbines are a way to tap into some of this extra atmospheric heat energy, now we need to ocean temperature differentials and find a few other ways to use the extra natural heating to drive our civilization around the corner. Instead of over the cliff.
Feedback, don’t forget wildfires. In the US alone:
“Extensive studies have found that large forest fires in the western US have been occurring nearly five times more often since the 1970s and 80s. Such fires are burning more than six times the land area as before, and lasting almost five times longer.”
http://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-is-increasing-forest-fires-around-the-world/a-19465490
Yes, I mentioned forest fires in my 8:58 AM comment. A major problem worldwide, some natural, some on purpose for agricultural process.
Plants are absorbing 30 percent more CO2 than a century ago, but if they burn no sequestration occurs.
Hi Gone fishing,
Looking at the Vostok ice core data it would seem this may be the effect of melting ice sheets and changes in Albedo. From LGM to HCO ESS is about 7 using the temperature estimate of Shakun et al 2012 and ice core estimates of atmospheric CO2. The ESS of a warmer Earth with much smaller ice sheets (one tenth the size today in Northern hemisphere relative to LGM) as probably about half that level maybe 3.5 C.
Global Climate models account for changing ice sheets and snow cover, but do not estimate changes in permafrost very well, some of the Earth System models may attempt to do so.
“The ESS of a warmer Earth with much smaller ice sheets (one tenth the size today in Northern hemisphere relative to LGM) as probably about half that level maybe 3.5 C.”
You are discounting the actual modern cryosphere which has 50 million square km of snow in the northern hemisphere alone. Sure that is fall/winter/spring seasonal but has an albedo effect of about 1/4 of that area or about -4 watts/m2. The other variable ice cover is the Arctic Ocean which controls about 2 watts/m2. The static (at least on the very short term) ice sheets are about 18 million km2. Greenland is problematic, as is the Arctic Ocean , since so much of it has summer melt on the surface changing snow character as well as forming melt ponds.
But of course the most variable is the snow cover, which has not only been regressing but is disappearing earlier in the spring (time of high insolation). A 2C rise should remove most of the snow cover and a 3C rise will eventually remove just about all the ice and snow.
Hope you have been enjoying the warm weather.
The key thing about these changes, especially changes in the Arctic Ocean is not temperature so much as the dramatic changes to the ecosystem and world weather. We need to start looking past the temperature and at the other changes that are actually more important.
As has been seen in some parts of the ocean, ecosystems can die quickly. The plants and small animals are a basement system that feed and oxygenate the world. Every reduction there is a reduction further up the chain.
Changing temperatures cause movement of insects and weed growth which causes more toxic pesticides/herbicides and more ecological collapse.
According to this link, wind farms built in the USA in 2015 have a capacity factor in excess of forty two percent.
http://host.madison.com/business/investment/markets-and-stocks/why-wind-energy-is-booming-in-the-u-s/article_67eebdd8-4cb3-5cb1-8bbd-21094f47177c.html
I don’t know if this can go much higher, considering it’s an average and some of the very best spots are taken already. Does anybody have a figure for the best performing wind farm in the USA?
We are now entering the time when one wind turbine can power 8000 to 10,000 homes.
https://www.treehugger.com/wind-technology/giant-wind-turbine-sets-record-wind-energy-generated-24-hours.html
https://qz.com/1005768/the-worlds-largest-turbine-mhi-vestas-v164-9-5-can-now-power-8000-homes-on-its-own/
Wind Power Could Blow Past Hydro’s Capacity Factor by 2020
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/wind-power-could-blow-past-hydros-capacity-factor-by-2020#gs.MzVaNJI
Sounds like the wind industry is changing so fast that one can only assume large gains in the near future.
As far as using wind in less optimum areas such as the southeast US, NREL studies have shown this to be practical with size and design changes.
Everybody likes a bargain. From our now 40 year old NREL.
https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2017/science-driven-innovation-can-reduce-wind-energy-costs-by-50-percent-by-2030.html
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/robots-help-stock-shelves-walmart-stores/b6rr3q3P6t9crhDzpb5RSI/
How Climate “Skeptics” Misuse Data: Sea Surface Temperature Edition
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/how-climate-skeptics-misuse-data-sea-surface-temperature-edition/
Hillary Clinton Keeps Pointing Fingers
Hillary Clinton blames others for last year’s electoral defeat, never recognizing that many Americans — both Democrats and Republicans — found her public record appalling, as Dennis J Bernstein discusses with John Pilger.
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/10/28/hillary-clinton-keeps-pointing-fingers/
Hillary doesn’t seem to be a “Graceful in Defeat” type does she?.
Nor is she graceful in victory either, as is evidenced by her corruption and warmongering while Secretary of State. She’s a psychopath, as is the majority of America’s leadership class.
I prefer Trump. He’s pure comedy gold.
The Orange Kahuna will surely put this train wreck in the ditch faster.
HRC would of just been a slower death (maybe, her stint as Sectary of State was pretty lethal).
Honduras now has the highest murder rate on Earth, and HRC’s bloody hands are all over that one.
Well she did campaign on an act of war with Russia. If her gig at State is any clue she seems to know how to create trainwrecks very well. I think her and Trump are much the same, not unlike how prison guards and prisoners are, they just took different paths in life.
At least Trump provides some comic relief on the road to collapse.
Some of These 101 Prescription Drugs – Made in Puerto Rico Before Hurricane Maria – May Soon Be Unavailable
http://insight-us.org/puerto_rico_drugs.html
Grandpa was probably a denier anyway, he can do without them?
We should just send some EVs to PR and everything will be ok. sarc/
“… a nation in which 87 percent of eighteen- to twenty-four year olds (according to a 2002 National Geographic Society/Roper Poll survey) cannot locate Iran or Iraq on a world map and 11 percent cannot locate the United States (!) is not merely “intellectually sluggish.” It would be more accurate to call it moronic, capable of being fooled into believing anything …”
https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/10/26/the-simulacra-democracy/
Trump is probably the most accurate representative of the population in quite some time. He’s as incompetent as the electorate he represents. The People™ get the government they deserve.
Quiz: Can We Guess Your Education Level From The U.S. States You Know?
http://offbeat.topix.com/quiz/18803
You probably know where YOUR state is, and the states surrounding it, but when you get farther away…do you know what all those states are? If you do, you’re probably pretty smart – and we bet we can guess your education level from how well you know a U.S. map. See how we do! Let’s Play
https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/blog/polview.html
Arctic sea ice extent currently 3rd lowest on record for the date.
This one’s for HB.
HE will never admit anything contrary to his agenda, but I tell it like it is, as best I can.
HE should have posted this link.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/30/james-clapper-russia-global-politico-trump-215761
It’s all about Clapper telling it like it is, and it’s even worse than even HB thinks it is.
On the other hand, I had and lost a politico link a while ago about dealings the Obama administration had in selling out our uranium industry to the Russians, and the down in the sewer part HRC played in that as Secretary of State, with the Russians involved donating millions and millions to her family slush fund, as well as paying Bill half a million to bullshit around with a microphone for a few minutes, lol.
It’ll be a cold day in hell before HB posts anything critical of his princess.
Here’s a similar one I did bookmark.
http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/355749-fbi-uncovered-russian-bribery-plot-before-obama-administration
“Before the Obama administration approved a controversial deal in 2010 giving Moscow control of a large swath of American uranium, the FBI had gathered substantial evidence that Russian nuclear industry officials were engaged in bribery, kickbacks, extortion and money laundering designed to grow Vladimir Putin’s atomic energy business inside the United States, according to government documents and interviews.”
“That’s when conservative author Peter Schweitzer and The New York Times documented how Bill Clinton collected hundreds of thousands of dollars in Russian speaking fees and his charitable foundation collected millions in donations from parties interested in the deal while Hillary Clinton presided on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.”
The casual observer can’t avoid dragging Hillary into this. It appears that, among other things, the Clinton Foundation received over a $100 million in “charitable donations” from various Russian companies and individuals over the years. Gosh, they’re a big-hearted people! Maybe it’s all the vodka they guzzle. No doubt, the newly-converted Russian capitalists were yearning to support “impact entrepreneurs” who are creating “new enterprises to generate both social impact and financial returns” by addressing market gaps in developing countries, or to “strengthen the capacity of people in the United States and throughout the world to meet the challenges of global interdependence” — as the Clinton Foundation described their activities.
More likely they wanted to grease their access to the sure-thing It’s-My-Turn Madam President. Except then she went and lost the election… all because of Russian meddling.
-JHK
Hi Hightrekker,
I totally agree with your ten sixteen am qoute except for the very last little bit.
“More likely they wanted to grease their access to the sure-thing It’s-My-Turn Madam President. Except then she went and lost the election… all because of Russian meddling.”
It should read ” PARTLY because of Russian meddling.”
She had in it the bag, but threw it away out of arrogance and contempt for the people who would ordinarily have supported her, otherwise.
Making secret speeches at a quarter of a million per pop and taking those millions and hanging out with banksters when she SHOULD have been campaigning among the TRUE base of the D party cost here the election.
Lets not forget that gays, lesbians, any and all possible gender combinations, minorities, immigrants, and most the rest of us,excepting only the rather well to do, the top fifth or less of us, all share the ECONOMIC problem…. which above all else determines which way the middle of the road voter votes on election day.
If she had had brains enough to listen to Bill, she would be president today, but she surrounded herself with yes boys and yes girls who stroked her ego and told here what she wanted to know.
Even so, she almost won, in VERY large part imo, because so many voters hated Trumps guts and were afraid of him. The flip side of that is that the D’s were dumb enough to run her even as she was hated and feared by a very substantial portion of the electorate who didn’t know any better than to vote for Trump.
I was VERY surprised when she lost, and had to pay up on some bets I placed on her winning. But by about ten pm, it was clear the polls were all mostly biased in her favor, or just simply wrong, and that Trump was going to be stronger than expected in the Rust Belt. It turned out he was strong enough by the proverbial hair. I knew he was going to take the southern states that were supposedly maybe going to go for HRC, because I’m a southerner and have a pretty good idea how to handicap polling numbers in southern states.
Maybe I didn’t make it clear enough in my long reply to Nick upthread about his confusion in respect to what liberals SAY.
When liberals talk about abortions, which they call by the code words right to choose, they fail to realize, as political creatures, as voters and as campaign managers, that tens of millions of conservative and religious people see abortion as MURDER, and pure and simple. So they use the code words right to life. . So they will NEVER vote D for this reason alone.
And when a liberal gets all hot and bothered, to the extent he gets on the street to protest his lack of privacy, because the government is recording every phone call he makes , number, time of day, duration, etc, well that same liberal fails to understand that when he talks about taking away peoples guns, he’s talking about coming into those people’s HOMES and CONFISCATING things they hold EVEN MORE DEAR than he does his privacy. Many of these people believe that their own safety and security depend on having a gun in their home. I’m one of them. I’ve used a gun to defend myself from somebody threatening to beat me senseless with a mattock, maybe killing me, and I’ve used it to escort thieves off my property, etc.
And the fact that thieves and rapists and the sort of people who are willing to invade and rob KNOW that my sort of people are ARMED means we are only targeted at rather long intervals, compared to other people they know are NOT.
And anybody who thinks the police will protect them , in an emergency, is a goddamned hopeless fool, except when they are lucky enough that there’s a cop REALLY close by who is otherwise not tied up.
The ONE time in my life I REALLY wanted the police, living in a tough neighborhood in Richmond, and called them, they took half an hour to show up, although there were patrol cars within ten blocks with two cops in them. By that time somebody ……That was ME .. was on the way to the hospital, because I suffered what would now be called a home invasion while having a party…… and there was no gun in the house because at that time my hot young Big Apple Jewish sweet pea begged me not to have one. This house was one my business associates and I bought to renovate in a rough but gentrifying neighborhood, within easy walking distance of VCU. Houses there are worth a LOT of money now, but very little back then.
After that…… well, she changed her mind, and I started teaching her the fundamentals. Previously, she SORT of understood… because she lost her known extended European family to the Nazis in WWII…. even though she never actually met any of them, being born later. But she knew her grandmother, as I did, and SHE knew some of them personally and a lot of them via family records.
Now I’m not stupid enough to argue that a man with a pistol or shotgun is going to defend himself successfully from a dozen soldiers….. but if a couple of those soldiers got killed in the process, here and there, or lost family members of THEIR own, well…….. that sort of thing results in publicity, and the people whose sons those soldiers were, to maybe doing some thinking about WHY their sons were hauling people off wholesale without trials, etc. It leads people who are going along to get along to think a lot sooner about the consequences of going along.
Now I have wandered off from my point as usual. THIS Is my point. Every body who WANTS the country disarmed is already on board. The D’s DO NOT NEED TO PANDER to this segment of the electorate.
Anytime they emphasize it, and the MORE they emphasize it, the more they are reminding millions and millions of people who believe they have a FUNDAMENTAL right to be armed, and NEED arms, to vote against them, and reminding them in VERY clear terms. They’re reminding them in no uncertain terms to vote R.
And who, pray tell, is in control of the government in this country??
Is this sort of thing so HARD to understand?
Can a person with a university education possibly be so stupid he can’t get it, or at least THINK about it, give it some real thought and consideration????
I fear the answer is that indeed he can be that stupid.
Rube aka KGB, the guy who past up a “hot” second wife to sleep on the couch with his gun on the wall.
Not into reformist politics–
Pepsi, Pepsi Lite
To bad for the dims, they had it in the bag with Sanders.
Oh well— at least Cheeto Jesus is waking the sleepers up a bit.
Even the baffled herd knows something is wrong now, they just don’t quite know what.
“Trump Campaign Adviser Lied To FBI About Russian ‘Dirt’
George Papadopoulos has been cooperating with the probe of Russian meddling in the election.
WASHINGTON ― A foreign policy adviser to President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has pleaded guilty to a charge of lying to FBI agents about “dirt” he was offered on Hillary Clinton.
George Papadopoulos, 30, pleaded guilty on Oct. 5, but the case wasn’t unsealed until Monday, when two other Trump associates were indicted by a federal grand jury.
Papadopoulos reached a plea deal with prosecutors, and has since been cooperating with special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/george-papadopolous-trump-russia-probe_us_59f7354be4b07fdc5fbfa210?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster(OFM), I see your still spewing your Russian Republican Facebook fake news about HRC. You have no shame.
Your a Rube (a country bumpkin, hick, redneck, ‘an unsophisticated countryman in Canadian and US slang)
He’s sophisticated enough to correctly spell ‘passed’ and ‘you’re’ at least.
Hi HB,
I am surprised that you have demonstrated a new low in either reading comprehension or thinking a minute before posting a comment about me being a trump / R guy.
That link is all about one of Trump’s flunkies pleading guilty, cutting a deal, to stay out of jail.
And since then, Mueller has indicted a couple of OTHER Trump associates and charged them with some pretty heavy duty stuff, lol, namely money laundering, which carries a sentence up to twenty years.
I’m thinking there’s a good possibility now that some other people are going to find it necessary to turn on Trump to stay out of jail themselves.
Things are LOOKING UP.
But that still doesn’t mean that HRC didn’t accept oh up around a hundred million or so in donations to her family slush fund from parties ranging from shady to out right desperados while serving as secretary of state, now, does it??
I’m one of the people who like to believe that whatever questionable things you do eventually come back to bite you on the ass, as often as not.
It’s clear now that the Russians were hoping to see Trump elected, and pulled some dirty tricks to help him along. I have never denied this, but I’m smart enough to withhold judgement in such cases, until I see some actual proof, rather than just non specific statements from various officials.
We had ample documentation of HRC’s shortcomings, stupidity, and arguable crimes well before the election. We knew Trump was a scumbag, at least most of us did, but we didn’t have PROOF as such, in terms of political chicanery, etc, because he wasn’t a politician… PREVIOUSLY.
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster says – “around a hundred million or so in donations to her family slush fund”
The Clinton Foundation (founded in 1997 as the William J. Clinton Foundation),[2] and from 2013 to 2015, briefly renamed the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation[3]) is a non-profit organization under section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. tax code. It was established by former President of the United States Bill Clinton with the stated mission to “strengthen the capacity of people in the United States and throughout the world to meet the challenges of global interdependence.”[4] Its offices are located in New York City and Little Rock, Arkansas.
Through 2016 the foundation had raised an estimated $2 billion from U.S. corporations, foreign governments and corporations, political donors, and various other groups and individuals.[5] The acceptance of funds from wealthy donors has been a source of controversy.[5][6] The foundation “has won accolades from philanthropy experts and has drawn bipartisan support”.[5] Charitable grants are not a major focus of the Clinton Foundation, which instead uses most of its money to carry out its own humanitarian programs.[7]
This foundation is a public organization to which anyone may donate and is distinct from the Clinton Family Foundation, a private organization for personal Clinton family philanthropy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_Foundation
Philanthropy (from Greek φιλανθρωπία) means etymologically, the love of humanity, in the sense of caring and nourishing, it involves both the benefactor in their identifying and exercising their values, and the beneficiary in their receipt and benefit from the service or goods provided.
The Fake News KGB Rube continues
FWIW, I’ll say what I’ve said before: character issues are a political tactic. A manipulation. A sideshow. A distraction. Policy positions and competence are what matter, in that order.
It was always perfectly clear that Hillary’s policy positions were overall dramatically better (even if sometimes the differences on particular things were not as large as we’d like, as she moved to the center and pursued conservative votes and money), and also perfectly clear that she had administrative competence, if not charisma. Trump’s positions were either unclear or very bad, and his competence was questionable.
I’m glad I didn’t have to choose between a Trump with good policy positions and a competent politician with bad policy positions – that would have been uncomfortable, but at the end of the day our problems with Trump are less about character & personality, and more about policy: he wants to help the powerful and comfortable, and hurt those who are already disadvantaged.
https://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=20041#.Wfcf20ycb-Y
The latest analysis of observations from the WMO GAW Programme shows that globally averaged surface mole fractions(2) calculated from this in situ network for CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2016, with CO2 at 403.3 ± 0.1 ppm, CH4 at 1 853 ± 2 ppb(3) and N2O at 328.9 ± 0.1 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 145%, 257% and 122% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels. The record increase of 3.3 ppm in CO2 from 2015 to 2016 was larger than the previous record increase, observed from 2012 to 2013, and the average growth rate over the last decade. The El Niño event in 2015/2016 contributed to the increased growth rate through complex two-way interactions between climate change and the carbon cycle. The increase of CH4 from 2015 to 2016 was slightly smaller than that observed from 2014 to 2015, but larger than the average over the last decade. The increase of N2O from 2015 to 2016 was also slightly smaller than that observed from 2014 to 2015 and the average growth rate over the past 10 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) [3, 4] shows that from 1990 to 2016, radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) increased by 40%, with CO2 accounting for about 80% of this increase.
This was discussed on BBC Radio news this morning. The WMO looks at CO2 data only after all plant activity has absorbed as much as possible, not averages or peaks. The commentator said that El Nino had caused droughts which reduced plant uptake of CO2. That is a 30% change from the 2005 to 2014 average and would be even greater if we looked at the minima as the WMO does. Seems like an extreme change to just attribute to drought. More likely some came from burning forests and the ocean in addition to the land source.
With plants using 30 percent more CO2 now globally than they did 100 years ago, I think the whole drought El Nino case is very weak. Plants are already removing CO2 at much higher rates and some regional droughts should barely dent that.
We really have to face the fact that natural sources of CO2 are taking on a high degree of significance, obliterating any slowing or reducing of output by humans.
And speaking of non-linear changes from today’s BBC report:
“Rapidly increasing atmospheric levels of CO2 and other gases have the potential, according to the study to initiate unpredictable changes in the climate system… leading to severe ecological and economic disruptions.”
“Another concern in the report is the continuing, mysterious rise of methane levels in the atmosphere, which were also larger than the average over the past ten years. Prof Nisbet says there is a fear of a vicious cycle, where methane drives up temperatures which in turn releases more methane from natural sources.”
“The rapid increase in methane since 2007, especially in 2014, 2015, and 2016, is different. This was not expected in the Paris agreement. Methane growth is strongest in the tropics and sub-tropics. The carbon isotopes in the methane show that growth is not being driven by fossil fuels. We do not understand why methane is rising. It may be a climate change feedback. It is very worrying.”
RECORD SURGE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 SEEN IN 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41778089
Yes, we may be behind the eight-ball at this point, or this may be the last chance with extreme effort to head off the worst of the effects of global warming.
Problem is that things are just getting noticeable now and don’t look too scary yet. But then again all accelerating situations start out slowly.
For anyone interested in the atmosphere that has not seen this chapter yet,
OPTICAL AND INFRARED PROPERTIES
OF THE ATMOSPHERE
http://www.cnofs.org/Handbook_of_Geophysics_1985/Chptr18.pdf
I’ve heard sea level rise in the tropics is flooding areas with lots of vegetation and that the methane rise is from that.
I keep watching Barrow Alaska and the methane is definately spiking now. But last year there was a huge CO2 spike in Barrow (hit 420ppm) and all around the Arctic. It sure looks like that CO2 spike they are talking about was from the Arctic, but they must have some other data making them blame the tropics.
Most of the methane coming out of the artic permafrost and/or hydrates likely gets eaten by bacteria and CO2 gets released, but eventually that process will saturate and methane will be released also – like we are seeing this year.
We really have to face the fact that natural sources of CO2 are taking on a high degree of significance -and methane, that came across as a growing concern in the report and associated interviews. It’s growing and it’s not coming from fossil fuels, but they aren’t sure where – not the Arctic (yet) despite the recent years’ concerns with hydrates and permafrost met – more the tropics and sub-tropics, probably agriculture related. Possibly the start of a runaway feedback.
Sorry Doug – commented before reading yours.
I don’t know about runaway feedbacks but it looks like the high end of the IPCC temperature rise may be too low. Doubt if we will reach Venus status but could reach Jurassic temps where even the polar regions have a temperate climate. Mammals may not want to be south of 40N. Ocean depth temps of 17C. Sub arctic ocean surface at 20C or higher.
Palm trees in Ohio anyone?
Research the Milankovic results which show how the present warming is part of a 100,000 year cycle of natural warming and cooling on our planet earth. Afterward…stop worrying, and lay down for a pleasant little nap.
I think you Milankovitch cycles
Thanks for coming out short bus. Maybe start your journey to personal transformation by learning where Florida is on a world map; and then tackle bigger subjects, like grade 10 math.
https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-natural-cycle.htm
I am not worrying. Scientists are just very curious about the world.
I guess you don’t read my comments on the orbital cycles so are just in continuous nap mode. What brought you out of your coma? Hello? Hello? Oh well, back to the land of nod again, eh?
Since no one has said it yet, and I really did enjoy this response from another thread:
Fuck off, moron!
And to extend, don’t come to a forum full of educated scientists and try to start an argument using a grade-school level analysis that fails spectacularly in the face of the slightest interrogation.
People get tired of answering the same questions.
For questions on climate change try
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/
or
https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm
After reading you could try some intelligent questions.
If you prefer videos try
http://forecast.uchicago.edu/
He hit the nail on the head and did not know it. While describing some future civilization we find on another planet, it hit me. He is describing us. The broadcast was done in 1970, but never did Shep realize that his musings would accidently describe a portion of our society, maybe a large portion, today. “In fact they haven’t solved a doggone thing. If anything it’s even worse than our world.” I really shouldn’t say he never realized, he lived until 2016 so was probably very aware of this miasma of society but no longer commented on it. Probably just laughed in a sardonic fashion.
Start at about 20 minutes to 25 minutes on the audio track.
https://archive.org/details/JeanShepherd1970/1970_Space_Credit_Card.mp3
So all you plugged in, heads in the smartphone, overscheduled and underpaid people out there; enjoy your TV shows tonight. Watching those fellow human beings trying to dance and sing is vital to your life. Tolerate no interruptions to this vital time. Please don’t turn to the other people and talk to them, they will not know what to do and might think you just went crazy. Plus they will be highly irritated at the interruption for that electronic show is so much more important than you are.
Hail to the wage slaves, they feed and house themselves. Yippee, the pinnacle of civilization.
But for just a moment, a short period, I too will sink into the depths of media entertainment. My traditional Halloween movie will be viewed. No it’s not any of those common horror films you can name, you would never guess it in a million years. I will give you a hint or two. The title starts with the word Horror. Made in the 1970’s.
Social hint to all those guys out there. Never get between a woman and her favorite TV show (you know Dancing for the Nebulae, American Idle, Project Runaway or something like that). Especially never make joking comments about it, not even mild ones. Best to just sit there quietly or go do something important like trimming your fingernails. If they ask you if you think the girls on TV are beautiful and you didn’t bring your mine detector, exploder device, well the term “going down in flames” may describe what happens next.
🙂
Horror Express?
No, thanks for participating.
It was not made in the US.
Ancient mosses suggest Canada’s Baffin Island is the hottest it’s been in 45,000 years
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/10/ancient-mosses-suggest-canada-s-baffin-island-hottest-it-s-been-45000-years
More liberal lies!
It was cold in the beer cooler at the Monster Truck Rally!
Another point on which D’s in general and environmentalists in particular could use a little help in extracting their heads from their backsides, on the odd chance that they might actually be interested in WINNING some elections.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/conservative-hunters-fishers-may-help-determine-the-fate-of-national-monuments/
Now most liberals don’t actually say very much very often, individually, about hunters and fishermen, but there are more than ENOUGH who do, who equate hunting in particular with subhuman behavior and a sin against nature and man, or WORSE.
And that sort tend to run their mouths about other hot buttons, very very often, in the same breath, that really and truly piss off conservative minded people.
Anybody who can’t understand this must be DENSE as lead, to say the least, or else TOTALLY in the dark in terms of understanding what millions of hunters think and believe.
It would be GOOD SENSE if such liberals would tone down the anti hunting rhetoric a little, especially when they equate it with murder in the ghetto,so to speak. It’s not firing up the real base, it turns on some D’s for sure, but THAT tranche of D’s are ON BOARD already, and won’t even consider voting R .
This sort of talk infuriates people like most of my neighbors, virtually all of whom of the male variety have been hunting at least a few times over the course of their lives, and consider it the very finest of outdoor activities and a god given right.
It’s MORE than enough to guarantee that a lot of them vote R on the basis of this one issue alone.
AND it’s worth mentioning that vast acreages, in total, of privately held land, are managed to a greater or lesser extent so as to protect and enhance wildlife populations, so that the owners and their friends have places to hunt. Take that away, and you have taken away a fair sized chunk of these land owners incentive to maintain their property this way. You’ve just moved them incrementally from conservationist to developer.
I am personally managing my own place to the maximum extent I can afford to do so as a wildlife hot spot. If I couldn’t hunt, and invite my friends to hunt, I would be FAR more to just farm it and log it, end to end, and corner to corner, or subdivide it and sell the lots for more houses for more “damnyankees ” to move out of town up north and into the woods down this way.
Now whether the D party as such would actually try to outlaw hunting now or anytime soon is a debatable question. I believe the PARTY as an organization has MORE sense.
What the D party would actually do is NOT relevant, within this context. What’s relevant, in this context, the context of winning electionsn, is what hunters and rural landowners think and believe.
Hey lib’s, ya wanna win more elections ?? I’m not saying you should necessarily adopt all my suggestions. But you sure as hell out to try to step back, and back a little farther, in terms of understanding and evaluating how the middle of the road and conservative public sees you, until it starts becoming clear to you that conservatives REALLY DON’T like you for some VERY real reasons.
The Trumps and the Koch brothers have a lot of people fooled, that’s VERY true.
But a LOT of people don’t like you because some of you go out of your way to make sure they don’t like you.
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster(OFM),
So tonight I flip the channel over to FoxNews bullshiter Hannity. There he was telling his viewers the real Russian sandal is HRC & Uranium for a hundred million. Rube, you may not watch tv, but the redneck conservative sea you live in do. The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Hi HB, I will give you credit when it’s due, and at least you didn’t deny that HRC took that hundred million, lol. Good for you.
Now my contention all along has been that NEITHER HRC nor Trump should be in a position of power and influence in our country, because neither of them is morally fit.
My particular argument is always about how D’s can win elections. The first thing they need to do is bust up the Clinton Machine that owns and operates the levers of power inside the party, and wise up and never again nominate a candidate who is thoroughly reviled and distrusted by roughly about half the electorate.
It’s true the R’s nominated somebody equally distrusted, by those in the know, but the R base didn’t really know anything about Trump, because he wasn’t a career politician. And the R Party as such did everything it could to get rid of him, rather than nominate him.
HRC was too stupid to run on change, she ran on BAU, as represented by the Obama administration, and the R party was so stupid it did the same thing that HRC did which cost her the election…….. she ignored the REAL D party base.
The R establishment ignored the real R party base , in terms of the actual NUMBERS of voters in that base, taking them for granted, to the point that the Tea Party became possible and happened, the same way HRC ignored and took the real D base for granted. The R base was so SICK of business as usual that it sucessfully rebelled in favor of Trump.
The Sanders camp failed to succeed in nominating Sanders, but it’s alive and well and will hopefully be taking over the levers of the D party within the next few years.
R’s are sometimes just as wooden headed as D’s.
Trumpster(OFM) says – “HRC was too stupid to run on change, she ran on BAU, as represented by the Obama administration”
That’s right, the majority of Democrats supported the continuation of the Obama Administration of protecting the environment, a woman’s right to choose, a persons right to marry who they love, a nuclear free Iran, not starting unnecessary wars and a strong growing economy.
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster(OFM) is a FoxNews Rube
Hi HB, for a long time, you denied reading my comments, but it’s obvious from your replies that you were reading them. Now it appears you are just briefly skimming looking for things to criticize.
Have you figured out yet that I have consistently, except when jerking YOUR chain, posted political comments to the effect that the environment is THE ISSUE, and that the D’s are WAY AHEAD of the R’s on environmental issues ?
I’m likely posting more mud on the R’s than any other two or three forum members combined. But since I’m interested in telling it straight, rather than as a partisan, above all else, when it comes to commenting on politics, I tell it like it is when it comes to HRC’s shortcomings as well as Trumps and the R party’s.
The incontestable fact that HRC accepted a hundred million in stinky money while S of State deserves publicity just as surely as Trump’s dirty laundry deserves publicity.
I’m not a partisan, like you. I tell it like I believe it IS, rather than cherry picking what I have to say.
Hi Rube,
Did Hillary Clinton Tell FBI’s Mueller to Deliver Uranium to Russians in 2009 ‘Secret Tarmac Meeting’?
Hyperpartisan web sites mischaracterized a State Department cable alerting the U.S. Embassy in Russia of a transfer of criminal evidence obtained in a sting operation.
CLAIM
Then-Secretary of State Clinton ordered then-FBI Director Robert Mueller to deliver highly enriched uranium to the Russians in a secret plane-side meeting in 2009.
WHAT’S FALSE
There was nothing nefarious in the transfer of the ten-gram sample, which was done at the request of Russian law enforcement and with the consent of the government of Georgia, whose agents had participated in its confiscation.
ORIGIN
In May and June 2017, a number of hyperpartisan news and opinion web sites published articles reporting that former Federal Bureau of Investigation director Robert Mueller, who in mid-May was named special counsel in the Justice Department’s investigation into alleged ties between the Trump presidential campaign and Russian officials, was himself enmeshed in “secret dealings” with Russia related to his 2009 delivery of a sample of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to Moscow ordered by Hillary Clinton.
The conspiracy web site Intellihub noted that the transfer was revealed in a WikiLeaks release of a classified State Department cable:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton facilitated the transfer a highly enriched uranium (HEU) previously confiscated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) during a 2006 “nuclear smuggling sting operation involving one Russian national and several Georgian accomplices,” a newly leaked classified cable shows.
So-called “background” information was provided in the cable which gave vague details on a 2006 nuclear smuggling sting operation in which the U.S. government took possession of some HEU previously owned by the Russians.
The secret “action request,” dated Aug. 17, 2009, was sent out by Secretary of State Clinton and was addressed to the United States Ambassador to Georgia Embassy Tbilisi, the Russian Embassy, and Ambassador John Beyrle. It proposed that FBI Director Robert Mueller be the one that personally conduct the transfer a 10-gram sample of HEU to Russian law enforcement sources during a secret “plane-side” meeting on a “tarmac” in the early fall of 2009.
https://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-robert-mueller-uranium/
Now turn off your FoxNews, Rube Trumpster
Carbon dioxide in atmosphere hits highest level in 800,000 years, increases at record rate – “The laws of physics mean that we face a much hotter, more extreme climate”
https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/GHG_Bulletin_13_EN_final_1_1.pdf?LGJNmHpwKkEG2Qw4mEQjdm6bWxgWAJHa
Origin of the 2016 QBO Disruption and Its Relationship to Extreme El Niño Events
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075576/abstract
Greenland surface melt continues
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
Javier’s latest turd
https://mobile.twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/925144826588176384
Yep
Hundreds of Taliban fighters in the western province of Farah paraded their vehicles and then stood in formation for a lengthy period of time, without fear of being targeted by Afghan or Coalition forces, to listen to an official give a speech recently . The Taliban continues to be able to operate openly in nearly all areas of the country.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/10/taliban-fighters-mass-in-western-afghan-province.php
Oldie but a goodie
The Curious World of Donald Trump’s Private Russian Connections
I’ve always been blessed with a kind of intuition about people that allows me to sense who the sleazy guys are, and I stay far away.” ~ Donald Trump, Surviving at the Top
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/12/19/the-curious-world-of-donald-trumps-private-russian-connections/
Javier seems to be on vacation, lol.
New knowledge can be dredged up from unlikely sources.
Researchers working with the KJB and a stone monument in an Egyptian museum dating from the days of the pharaohs have combined better translations of the texts with new and more sophisticated methods of calculating the precise time at which eclipses have occurred in particular spots to fix the date of the earliest ( known ) recorded eclipse, according to this link.
https://phys.org/news/2017-10-oldest-solar-eclipse-date-egyptian.html
I am under the impression the Chinese have some records of eclipses that were likely previous to this one. Perhaps they can be accurately dated too, at some future time.
A lot can be lost, or erroneously gained, in errors of translation.
I can’t quote it, but there is an ancient Chinese text that can be interpreted as the record of a Chinese expediton to explore North America. It refers to dog headed people, which seems to mean it’s not credible at all.
But it turns out that there were indigenous people here who wore dog head masks for ceremonial purposes. Allow a few shortcuts or mistakes to be made in copying old documents over and over, as the centuries pass, and in translating them from dying dialects to emerging dialects, or new languages altogether, and ….. well a reference to dog headed people doesn’t indicate the original text is fraudulent. This reference, in retrospect, can actually be reasonably interpreted as possible proof it’s genuine.
I believe there is a kernel of truth in a LOT of legends, and that a fair number of these kernels will be discovered eventually.
EMISSIONS GAP REMAINS ‘ALARMINGLY HIGH’ SAYS UN
In its annual review, the UN says the gap between carbon cutting plans and the reductions required to keep temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius is “alarmingly high”. If the Paris targets are to be reached then coal use for energy must stop the report warns. Some 80-90% of reserves must remain in the ground. This compares to around 35% for oil and 50% for gas reserves. In terms of which countries as doing their fair share, the UN report says China, the EU, India and Japan are on track to meet their 2020 pledges. Should the US follow through on its promise to leave the Paris pact, the report states that the picture will become bleaker.
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41802982
I think Fred can forget about his snow plow business.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change
Yup, snips from your link (and these are from REAL climate scientists).
“Temperature increases beyond 1C may elicit rapid, unpredictable and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage.”
“….to prevent global warming from feeding off itself by triggering long-term, potentially irreversible environmental domino effects, such as ice loss and forest die-back, and the weakening ability of things such as our oceans to absorb carbon…”
“…to prevent global warming from feeding off itself by triggering long-term, potentially irreversible environmental domino effects, such as ice loss and forest die-back, and the weakening ability of things such as our oceans to absorb carbon…”
“We have no evidence that a 1.9C rise is something we can easily cope with, and 2.1 is a disaster.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/10/31/trump-and-his-allies-are-laying-the-groundwork-for-a-saturday-night-massacre/?utm_term=.7fbd2557f9d9
Arctic sea ice extent is nearly 1 million km^2 less than 2000s average & 2 million km^2 below 1980s [3rd lowest on record for the date]
https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/www.moyhu.org/blog/polview.html
The teeth tell the story that CO2 was similar to pre and post CO2 levels during the PETM. It’s the methane.
Now does the seabed look so friendly when you warm up the waters?
Temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite
The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a remarkable climatic and environmental event that occurred 56 Ma ago and has importance for understanding possible future climate change. The Paleocene–Eocene transition is marked by a rapid temperature rise contemporaneous with a large negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE). Both the temperature and the isotopic excursion are well-documented by terrestrial and marine proxies. The CIE was the result of a massive release of carbon into the atmosphere. However, the carbon source and quantities of CO2 and CH4 greenhouse gases that contributed to global warming are poorly constrained and highly debated. Here we combine an established oxygen isotope paleothermometer with a newly developed triple oxygen isotope paleo-CO2 barometer. We attempt to quantify the source of greenhouse gases released during the Paleocene–Eocene transition by analyzing bioapatite of terrestrial mammals. Our results are consistent with previous estimates of PETM temperature change and suggest that not only CO2 but also massive release of seabed methane was the driver for CIE and PETM.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4948332/
Why do these science articles never have comment sections?
Good question.
I’ll file that inquiry under “fuckin’ duh!”
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
The usual terms such as imbecile, moron, idiot are not sufficient to describe the depths of absolute fucking dumbassery to which you have descended with that question! Do you even have any clue at all, as to what science is and how it works?! Don’t worry, that’s a rhetorical question…
I seriously doubt this will help you but perhaps it will spark someone else’s curiosity as to how some of this stuff actually works. Here goes nothing!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
Scientific Method
The scientific method is a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry is commonly based on empirical or measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academic_conference
Scientific Conferences
An academic conference or symposium is a conference for researchers (not necessarily academics) to present and discuss their work. Together with academic or scientific journals, conferences provide an important channel for exchange of information between researchers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_review
Peer Review
Scholarly peer review (also known as refereeing) is the process of subjecting an author’s scholarly work, research, or ideas to the scrutiny of others who are experts in the same field, before a paper describing this work is published in a journal or as a book
https://www.academiccoachingandwriting.org/academic-writing/resources/citations
Citations:
As an academic writer, you must document all of the sources of information that you include in your papers, presentations, and any other projects. The reason for citations and documentation is to credit the author and publisher for their original work and to enable your readers to consult the same sources.
Now please get back under whatever rock you crawled out from!
And what Survivalist said!
And another villager is successful in distracting any discussion of the subject itself.
Why doesn’t the bible have comment sections, and fact checking?
They don’t want to risk having the truth exposed. Notice at least they are telling where the public grants came from this time.
Jimmy Eckardt, latest on my ‘X’ list.
Doesn’t this conflict with other recent research which suggests previous estimates for ocean temperatures (which also implies Global temperature) are too high?
It would seem that both of these papers cannot be correct as the results are inconsistent.
I am quite surprised lately, you are usually quite conservative in your conclusions. I assume you are speaking of the simple laboratory simulation on O18 in calcite done by researchers that showed a drift in concentration in the lab. Even those researchers declared there was much more work to be done and their research only implied a possible change in the way past ocean temps are estimated.
For some reason the articles referred to 100 million years ago, while the PETM occurred around 55 million years ago, a minor difference in time, but I think appropriate to announce.
As far as your saying that there is lower sensitivity, I refer you to the current 1 degree change in just one century. Which is a far lower rate of temperature rise than was estimated for the PETM.
So if sensitivity is low, how does one explain the current changes so far? Also consider we have not seen the changes in temperature from the large pulse of GHG over the last 30 years nor the longer term rise due to thermal inertia of the ocean. So the actual sensitivity could very well be higher or the estimates of forcing are too low.
The apatite data from the paper above was from mammals not sea life, not in contact with sea water and not subject to the conditions simulated with pure O18 in the lab.
Note also that pure O18 does not exist in a natural setting, it’s abundance in oxygen is about 0.2%.
Hi Gone fishing,
Yes the results are preliminary, but my understanding was that the paper concluded that 100 Million years ago ocean temperatures were lower than previously estimated. My interpretation was that in general ocean temperatures had been overestimated, so I assumed that would include both 50 million years ago as well as 100 million years ago.
Generally speaking a cooler ocean tends to correspond with cooler Global temperature averages, so perhaps global temperatures from 50-100 million years ago have all been overestimated.
It is also possible that the research is incorrect, I am not really qualified to determine, generally Nature does a pretty good job of peer review as far as I understand.
Yes I am well aware that O18 is not very abundant in a natural setting.
My guess is that the experimental simulation took that fact into account.
I am also pretty clear on the thermal inertia of the ocean, that is why the transient climate response is about 1.8 C (happens relatively quickly and is better reflected in the change in Global land ocean temperature as the natural log of atmospheric CO2 increases, or one could use CO2 equivalent). The change in temperature once oceans have come into thermal equilibrium with a given level of radiative forcing is better estimated by looking at land only temperature vs the natural log of CO2 (or equivalent) and points to about 3.2 C for a doubling of CO2 for equilibrium climate sensitivity. Albedo, permafrost melt, and changes in land forms are likely to result in higher Earth system sensitivity, how to estimate this is far from clear as it may depend on the relative size of ice sheets. Today Northern hemisphere ice sheets are about one tenth the size of ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum, if 3.8 C of Earth system sensitivity (out of 7 C total) is due to ice sheet change, then if it is proportional to area only then perhaps 0.4 C of extra Earth System sensitivity would be due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet suggesting an ESS of about 3.6 C, melting of a portion of the Antarctic ice sheet might raise this further, perhaps to 4 C.
We do not have very well constrained estimates of Earth System Sensitivity.
No doubt a simple linear regression will not cover the full complexity of climate physics, that is what global climate models attempt to do, though also with imperfection.
Well, I see you are hanging fast on hard on a simple lab experiment that does not simulate earth conditions and is extrapolated across the globe and millions of years of time. Ok. In that case CO2 is not much of a factor in global warming.
Of course lower sensitivity does not jive with current reality. Short term sensitivity seems above 3C so I will go with reality.
I will stick with the more adept and able climate scientists on that one as well as the field climatologists.
Or we can wait 5000 years and see how it goes? 🙂
BTW, I really do like your global warming mantra but you are very confused about snow, ice and ice sheet factors.
My rough estimate is about 1 watt/m2 positive forcing global for every 5 degrees the land snow extent is pushed northward in the NH from 45 north upward. Not including Greenland (which is more an ice cap than a snow field).
I underestimated by just using winter cover.
Artic Ocean ice free in Sept adds 0.4 w/m2 globally and ice free all summer over 1.5 watt/m2.
The models do not have ice-free Sept until 2060, some even later. I think they need to step it up a bit.
As some famous climatologists have said, the Arctic amplification will double the climate forcing.
The scary part is that every day that passes the burning of fossil fuels is less dependent upon population and more dependent upon automation. Look at the US, relatively low density of population and the big GDP guy in the world.
Even more:
Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3322.full
This one’s for Fred, and all the other guys here who appreciate a great brew.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2017/10/31/561117731/the-other-reformation-how-martin-luther-changed-our-beer-too
Let it be known that various revisionist charlatans are out there trying to deny beer it’s place in history, claiming that it wasn’t the drink of choice during the last few centuries before we learned how to preserve food and provide ourselves with clean drinking water.
I will go to my final resting place utterly convinced that my ancestors drank beer in vast quantities for very practical reasons, the two biggest being that it was safer by a mile than the water available in urban areas back then , and the other that a hearty beer is loaded with calories and also provides a some need minerals and even a little protein. Food was scarce and expensive, and every calorie was needed.
Beer keeps. Brewing beer means grain and anything else tossed into the vat is preserved, as opposed to rotting away or being consumed by rats and insects.
My favorite man cave wall decoration has a picture of a man and a woman toasting each other with a brew, and is captioned BEER HELPING UGLY PEOPLE GET LAID AS FAR BACK AS HISTORY RECORDS.
I won’t quibble about the fact that what people drank that far back is more accurately described as wine.
http://www.toastale.com/us/
CHEERS!
Back when I was a kid, we used to get a pickup truck load of bread as often as once a week at what they called the “day old bread store”, which was where the industrial bread companies sent their out of date bread and pastries. Some of it was still perfectly satisfactory for the table, and I ate quite a few of the pastries, which must have been a source of considerable resentment on the part of the pigs who watched me eat them. A pig is the only animal of my acquaintance that looks you in the eye as an equal, and pigs seem to like sweets as much as kids.
I don’t know where that bread goes these days, but I strongly suspect most of it is sold directly to a commercial feed producer who is incorporating it into an animal feed product. Any from smaller stores that fails to sell after marking it down winds up in dumpsters. Locally at least a few enterprising employees of such stores and restaurants retrieve it and use it themselves or sell it for use as live stock feed.
You can read all about the way every small scrap of left over food is used as feed for pigs and chickens kept in cities in other countries that are not so prosperous. Some of us might live to see this become a common practice here in the USA.
Barrow Alaska Methane concentration
There was a episode of Coast To Coast not very long ago, with scientists on to explain how Arctic locations like in Barrow are thought of as the tail pipes of world. Ocean currents move exhaust gases there, then vent it out into deep space. The conclusion by the scientists was, the spiking methane levels were something going on for eons but only discovered in recent times because of the new technologies and ability to get to just about any place in the world we want to in order to study physical processes. The conclusion, there shouldn’t be anything to be concerned about. Earth has many self cleaning processes operating in a cycle that we have just started to understand.
“Ocean currents move exhaust gases there, then vent it out into deep space.”
Thanks for coming out short bus.
“Earth has many self cleaning processes operating in a cycle that we have just started to understand.”
Yes indeed: Late Devonian, 375 million years ago, 75% of species lost; End Permian, 251 million years ago, 96% of species lost; End Triassic, 200 million years ago, 80% of species lost; End Cretaceous, 66 million years ago, 76% of all species lost. And, Biologists suspect we’re living through a sixth major mass extinction called Holocene extinction (otherwise referred to as the Anthropocene extinction), an ongoing extinction event of species during the present Holocene epoch — mainly due to human activity.
And another one rides the bus.
Thanks for that Jimmy. And to think I was feeling like we a problem on our hands.
Fuck off, moron!
Man whoever said that first thank you. I never get tired of the way the keys flick off my fingers.
“Ocean currents move exhaust gasses there, then vent it out into deep space.”
All you here with your “educations” and “understandings of natural history” and “rational thought”, I challenge you to come up with a sentence dumber than this one. Go ahead, I’ll wait.
The in-situ data gets updated sooner – this year is really spiking….
The spike last year in CO2 showed up at stations all around the arctic – not just Barrow. This is unlikely a local source.
King Coal is roaring back to life! 😆
.
Yeah, a rise in exports and a slight rise in natural gas prices gave coal a boost. Production fell the first two quarters of this year.
In two years about as many Chinese coal miners die from mine accidents as there are American coal miners in total (all extraction jobs, not just underground).
Take a journey into coal territory in China. A Journey To The End of Coal
http://www.honkytonk.fr/index.php/webdoc/
Yair . . . .
Why would anyone make such a user unfriendly presentation? . . . . the honkytonk link from GF I mean.
What a load of bulldust.
Marvelous footage, they did the legwork and then to stuff it up like that . . . sheesh
I found no problem with it. Just click and go to the next venue. It actually was fun, a derivative of some of the old computer adventures. It takes some time, not meant for the those with short attention spans or those who want to be fully served.
Lots of good stories from the people.
I think some of the frustration and dead ends involving government and traveling in China were purposely built in to the story. So it worked.
Things continue to get more surreal by the moment.
I guess if you elect a clown, you get a circus.
Sometimes it’s the little things that bring home our losses………. the sight of the bicycle a dead child’s bicycle……..
This is the fifth or sixth year in a ROW now that we aren’t going to get our usual local fall colors. The woods are pretty, but the colors are muted, very pale. Mother Nature used to put on a show for us here in these southern mountains, dressing like the flamboyant old show girl she is for the evening before going to bed for the winter.
We aren’t getting the cold nights necessary to bring the fall colors out. A lot of trees have lost their leaves already in heavy rains, without displaying more than a hint of their usual orange , red , or yellow shades.
I know…….. It’s just weather………. Until it becomes the norm over enough years.
I don’t have a real clue as to who might be living on my place in twenty or thirty years.
Maybe I ought to put in a pecan grove. Pecans here in the past haven’t produced a good crop more than maybe once every eight to ten years, as estimated by talking to people who have a tree or two on their property. But with warm weather arriving earlier and holding later becoming the new norm………. by the time pecan trees planted now are old enough to produce……….. ??? And even if they don’t, the wood is still good for fuel and lumber.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/10/trump-west-wing-races-to-contain-mueller-fallout
Now being that HB has blown my cover, I might as well admit I really am an old time bright red commie, one well trained in the subversion and destruction of enemy countries. Since we have won, I can something slip that people only HALF WAY awake, such as old HB, never seem to figure out. Hardly any of you dumb capitalists ever figure it out.
Our short and medium term goal is to subvert and make use of any and every enemy politician and businessman and journalist foolish enough to take our bait, by any means we can, with the end game, if we win, being Mother Russia being THE Superpower.
We made a great lick with that fool HRC, because we got the uranium cheap, there isn’t really any scandal involved in our getting it……… at least nothing that can be proven. The sales process was as clean as a new pin , every i was dotted, every T was crossed. BUT she was foolish enough to gamble that she and her hubby and her kid could take that hundred million in smelly donations to the family slush fund without her DOMESTIC enemies figuring it out, lol, and capitalizing on it. If you dumb ass Yankee partisans of the right wing had been to stupid too figure it out, we would have helped them along as necessary.
And we simply couldn’t believe our luck when it came to her secret email system, which of course even a child must understand could have been put in place for only one possible reason, and that sure as the Christian fire pit wasn’t convenience or even the result of plain old stupidity. And her partisans are still arguing that it was safe, and that we couldn’t hack it, even after thousands of supposedly confidential documents were found on her homie girl’s pervert husband’s computer…… Now I’m hoping to be decorated personally in the Kremlin for managing to pull THAT one off. Best piece of trade craft of my entire career, and one to go down in history, lol.
We Russians are extremely skilled when it comes to dropping cigarette butts and even lit matches in dry leaves in Yankee territory. We don’t get as many fires as we would like, but we still get some pretty nice ones.
Maybe the help we gave him was enough to put Trump over the top and in the WH, although and modesty forces me to admit that the real reason he won is that his opponent was such an inept campaigner, and started the race pulling a career long baggage train. That Great Right Wing Conspiracy we created and nurtured along for the last forty years or so finally paid off!!!!
So Trump like his opponent took the chocolate ( you need to have read The Silence of the Lambs ) and now he does what we want, we have him exactly where we want him.
And no matter WHAT, we come away big winners, covered up with roses, like the horse in the big race. Even if his domestic enemies manage to get rid of him, we have still done you the capitalist pigs great damage, and THAT is what we set out to do. I’m pretty sure I will get my dacha just outside Moscow, and a car, and a driver, and access to goods from Western stores, when I am finally called home, when I’m too old to be of any more use as a field agent. Any day now, lol.
That is if they don’t shoot me for shooting off my mouth.
Maybe I better just stay here. Already got a dacha, and a car too. Not to mention a farm, and some yankee dollars in a glass jar buried out in the woods. Ya can’t find glass with dogs or radar or anything else. Good trade craft.
Now I am sure you Yankees will excuse any minor flaws in my vocabulary, grammar, and punctuation. English Yankee style comes hard for me.
tva-jó zda-ró-vye – Your health!
ps, Nostrovia! is not a toast as such back home, it’s an expression of thanks for food and drink.
But here it has come to mean about the same thing as CHEERS!
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/signpost-from-standing-rock-now-smithsonian-collections-shows-power-solidarity-180966928/
As Hickory Edwards says, “We’re made out of that same water. Our elders and ancestors were made out of that same water. Seven generations from now, our grandchildren will be made out of that same water.” The thought of crude oil infecting the water of Standing Rock is anathema to the Sioux community. “We feel it’s extremely important to fight for this water,” Edwards says, “for everyone.”
Though oil is now flowing freely along the Stanley, ND-Patoka, IL route—thanks in no small part to the current administration—the national Native American community is not about to abandon its fight for the hazard-free sacred space promised by the Horse Creek accord. Symbols like Edwards’s multicultural signpost have the power to galvanize change, and in time, the Sioux and their allies hope the U.S. government will reform its historically exploitative stance towards Native Americans and sincerely follow through with its vows. As a quote from former Supreme Court justice Hugo Black states in the “Nation to Nation” exhibition, “Great nations, like great men, should keep their word.”
Read more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/signpost-from-standing-rock-now-smithsonian-collections-shows-power-solidarity-180966928/#9L7pAzloHV47z9YM.99
Give the gift of Smithsonian magazine for only $12! http://bit.ly/1cGUiGv
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I understand. As Jesse Jackson said, we didn’t all come in the same boat, but we’re all in the same boat now.
People now dead but once personally close to me have had some or all of their property seized to create a national park or to build roads. Others of us have been forced to allow power lines and water and sewer lines to be built across our property.
On the other hand, if oil doesn’t flow thru a NEW pipeline, it will as a practical matter flow thru old ones….. which are probably a hundred times more likely to fail than a new one built to the newest standards.
And we’re stuck with using oil for at least another couple of generations.
How ‘Russian’ Facebook Memes Expose the Brutal Realities of American Foreign Policy
https://www.alternet.org/grayzone-project/how-russian-facebook-memes-expose-brutal-realities-american-foreign-policy
Hillary Clinton acknowledging U.S. role in fueling al-Qaeda
AS ICE RETREATS, FROZEN MOSSES EMERGE TO TELL CLIMATE CHANGE TALE
Originally, the researchers expected to find plants dating to medieval times, which would have suggested that the region is the warmest it’s been since the Middle Ages. But finding 3,700-year-old plants was a surprise, Miller said. And we never anticipated we’d find plants 40,000 years old, he added. It’s a bit spooky because it provides quantitative evidence that the magnitude of summer warmth is already sufficient to melt all ice in the eastern Canadian Arctic. It’s just a matter of time now.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/ice-retreats-frozen-mosses-emerge-tell-climate-change-tale
Miller said. And we never anticipated we’d find plants 40,000 years old, he added.
Fucking great!
Yeah and on top of that our agricultural practices, thanks to growing corn for raising all those pigs, chickens, and cows are destroying our prairies and grassland ecosystems. Three cheers for Scott Pruitt head of the EPA and possible future head of the USDA Sam Clovis! These people are worse than the pond scum their ignorance and ideologies are producing!
They need to be put in jail along with Trump and most of the GOP politicians.
https://www.ecowatch.com/tyson-foods-toxic-dead-zone-2504305201.html
Tyson Foods Linked to Largest Toxic Dead Zone in U.S. History
Another alarming characteristic of industrial agriculture is that because it’s so intensive, fields are quickly exhausted, and the industry must continuously expand to new areas. For this reason, the American prairie and grassland ecosystems are being altered faster than the Amazon rainforest.
A recent University of Wisconsin study estimated that this loss of natural grassland “could have emitted as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as 34 coal-fired power plants operating for one year—the equivalent of 28 million more cars on the road,” noted Mighty Earth. These unique landscapes are among the most threatened in the world, and are irreversibly damaged after conversion into crop fields, often to grow corn and soy. At a time in our country when public lands are being attacked from many angles, industrial-scale agriculture to support the meat industry is the biggest challenge these ecosystems face.
Ah yes, Tyson, one of our most honorable and upstanding corporate citizens. Maybe tonight I will tell all you kiddies about the way Tyson treats chicken farmers. There are some in my neighborhood, close enough that we used to go to their places to load up with chicken doo doo for the farm.It’s GREAT fertilizer, except there’s not even one hundredth of one percent enough available to make any real difference in the need for manufactured / mined fertilizers.
This one’s for HB. From Wikipedia
“Clinton had no experience in such financial instruments.[2] Bill Clinton’s salary as Arkansas Attorney General and then Governor of Arkansas was modest and Clinton later said she had been interested in building a financial cushion for the future.[3][4] The Clintons’ combined income in 1978 from the governorship and Rose Law Firm amounted to $51,173,[5] equivalent to $187,900 in 2016”
Can we say one percenter, folks? Now for a couple of kids with law degrees from snooty Ivy League U’s and good enough connections to already be GOVERNOR and first lady………. to be worried about needing a nest egg? Come on folks. That’s the same sort of shit she was peddling about convenience when she set up her doofus secret email system.
“James Blair was a friend, lawyer, outside counsel to Tyson Foods, Arkansas’ largest employer, and had been doing so well trading commodities futures that he encouraged friends and family to enter the market too.[6][3][4] Blair in turn traded through, and relied upon cattle markets expertise from, broker Robert L. “Red” Bone of Refco, a former Tyson executive and professional poker player who was a World Series of Poker semifinalist.[4][7] In October 1978, when Bill Clinton was Attorney General and on the verge of being elected Governor,[1] Clinton opened a trading account, although Blair made most of the trades.
By January 1979, Clinton was up $26,000;[4] but later, she would lose $16,000 in a single trade.[4] At one point she owed in excess of $100,000 to Refco as part of covering losses, but no margin calls were made by Refco against her.[4] Near the end of the trading, Blair correctly sold short and gave her a $40,000 gain in one afternoon.[4] In July 1979,[1] once she became pregnant with Chelsea Clinton, “I lost my nerve for gambling [and] walked away from the table $100,000 ahead.”[3] She briefly traded sugar futures contracts and other non-cattle commodities in October 1979, but more conservatively, through Stephens Inc.[4][8] During this period she made about $6,500 in gains (which she failed to pay taxes on at the time, consequently later paying some $14,600 in federal and state taxes. ”
Now I was long OVER my long haired hippie phase at that time and hanging around with some right winger types sometimes, dividing my time between the country where I owned some property and the city where I was hanging out playing grad student with those leftie girls at the U. ( That’s VCU for people from out of town. ) I mean, my hair was still long, but not down over my shoulders anymore, and I had it trimmed regularly by a professional, ya had to look good to date the beautiful women.
Anyway, I researched Cattle Gate rather carefully. Old Red would be locked up tighter than a you know what’s backside these days, but back then, considering who all the power players were in the noble state of Arkansas, he got off with having his license lifted.
NONE of his OTHER clients ever did even as REMOTELY well as HRC, lol.
Now I can’t actually prove it in a court of law, but the way you could make such a run in those days, without the sort of luck that would mean winning Powerball TWICE, is this.
Things ran on paper back then. The broker put in orders to buy and sell, but he did not NECESSARILY put the names of his clients on the orders RIGHT AWAY.
“As it happened, during the period of Clinton’s trading, Refco was under investigation by the Mercantile Exchange for systematic violations of its margin trading rules and reporting requirements regarding cattle trading.[2][8] In December 1979, the exchange issued a three-year suspension to Bone and a $250,000 fine of Refco (at the time, the largest such penalty imposed by the exchange)”
So …… you buy some and you sell some, in the morning, not knowing which way the market will move…… and in the afternoon, if your broker happens to be your SPECIAL friend, and not much worried about going to jail or anything like that, considering who YOU are, well…….. he JUST MIGHT CONCEIVABLY have sort of cherry picked winners and losers for his special friends, ya see.
Now of course to actually BELIEVE that happened, you would undoubtedly have to be a hard core Fox News Rube, a KGB hacker, a right wing ninnie com poop, lol.
” One analysis performed by Auburn University and published in the Journal of Economics and Finance claimed to find that the odds of a return that large during the period in question were about one in 31 trillion.[15][16][17]”
And to make it easier for the true believers to keep this rather unpalatable horse choker down, of course you put in a few losers here and there to make it look better.
When the regulars get together to skin a new sucker at the poker table, they ALWAYS have one or two of the regulars come out losers too. This way the sucker most often doesn’t even realize he’s been had. Been there, been the sucker myself. It didn’t take me long to realize it though, and it didn’t cost me much because I never played for high enough stakes with strangers for my losses to matter.
If it weren’t for exposing some of our current operatives, being as my cover is already blown, I could brag about how we got somebody to whisper in HRC’s ear about how EASY it is to make money, sometimes, if you happen to be positioned just right.
And then we put enough guys to work as reporters and mouth pieces for the R’s to make sure that later on, the story would be well known, in case we ever wanted to back somebody who would want to scream ” Crooked Hillary!” leading the crowd in chanting “Lock her up! Lock her up!”
Because you see, we’re a lot like the devil or the Mafia, once we have something on you, we never forget, because we may have an opportunity to use it against you later.
Now is Trump WORSE? There’s no doubt in my mind that he IS.
But he’s a real World Series level crook. HRC, by comparison, might have made the varsity at a small college.
Now of course old HB is perfectly free to call me a Fox News Rube again. I can always amuse myself in return with a reply like this one.
Rube, I realize you know very little regarding the markets, commodities and investing. It takes money to play with the big boys. My refinery stocks are up 10K today, tomorrow they could be down 15K. Commodities are much more volatile. I would suggest you just take off your panties. That way they won’t get tied up into a wad.
Get over its. Americans gain and lose millions everyday in the market. It’s been almost 40 years and for the last 25 years HRC has been the Republican number one target. Innocent until proven guilty. Your beating a dead horse.
Your a Fox News Rube and make Sean Hannity proud of himself.
Sure HB,
I bet you wish your wife was the governor, and you had a brokerage and an broker as crooked as the one HRC had, and a the lawyer as your consigliere who is outside counsel to the the biggest company in the state, and the opportunity to double down any time without any money in your account, since you are only a brand new customer but still super special, lol.
I mean, hell,your broker will probably let you run in the hole a couple of hundred grand ( lets not forget inflation) without calling you, right?
Now as it happens, I do know a few things about commodities and how fast prices can move. They teach the basics of commodity markets in first year econ, or at least they did back when I was in college. I don’t know how much time they devote to this subject at the Mack Truck salesmanship school.
I mean, hell half of the people in the commodities speculation game make a hundred times their investment in a year. RIGHT?
Now if your princess had made maybe a THOUSAND times her investment, THAT might have raised some eyebrows ya reckon???
Do you realize that you sound like as big an idiot defending HRC’s ethics this way as Trump himself sounds twittering about fake news ?
NAH.
The more you make a fool of yourself this way, the better I like it. The lesson is that if you want your party to win elections, you should work to nominate candidates that are reasonably well liked by the general public and that aren’t pulling career long baggage trains, and that are smart enough enough to avoid such awesomely stupid mistakes as setting up secret home brew email systems to hide SOME of their dirty laundry, and smart enough to avoid accepting a hundred million in dirty money while holding high office, etc etc etc.
I’m having fun. I don’t mind being called names, lol.
You’re playing right into my hands, and you’re too stupid to even realize that you are doing so. You’re defending the indefensible.You make the dumbest sort of fundamentalist backwoods Baptist talking about Jesus coming to fly him up to Heaven look like a Nobel Prize winner.
You’re reduced to calling me names, lol, you have NOTHING to refute my comments pointing out HRC’s shortcomings.
Trump has his fake news, HRC has her Great Right Wing Conspiracy. Some people are dumb enough to believe in Trump, and some people are dumb enough to believe in HRC.
Now if you ever wise up enough to quit calling me names, I will eventually get tired of baiting you, and quit it.
Or maybe Ron or Dennis will get tired of it, and tell me to stop. It’s their forum.
“Now if you ever wise up enough to quit calling me names, I will eventually get tired of baiting you, and quit it.”
Republicans have been calling HRC “names” for over 25 years. For you it’s been less than a years. There is only one way you can get me to stop. Think about it. I’m just treating you like Trump treats everyone. I’m branding you.
Buck up big boy, you sound like your whining
And I’m getting a lot of mileage out of it. Do you think I actually WANT you to stop? If so, you’re even dumber than I thought.
You may convince a few people who don’t actually READ my comments that HRC is or was a competent and ethical politician.
Anybody who actually reads them will very shortly understand that there is a great deal of truth at the core of what ideologues and partisans of the D persuasion refer to as the GREAT RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY.
Sometime in the next few days, I will make a point of looking up the names and professions or businesses of some of the donors of that hundred million in donations that went to her family slush fund while she was doing business as secretary of state, lol. And I will post that information HERE.
ONE of my goals is to remind people of all sorts that if they want to win elections, they should restrict themselves to supporting candidates during the primary season that are well liked by the general public, or at least not REVILED by roughly half of the voting public, lol.
HRC was the only Democrat in the country that Trump could have beaten, because she was the only one dumb enough to make the mistakes she made such as Cattle Gate, Water Gate, the secret email system, the slush funds, the nose in the air way of talking about the core of the REAL Democratic party, calling them names, hanging out with banksters and movie stars instead of campaigning in the Rust Belt, etc, etc, etc, rigging the primary process to the point it INFURIATED the younger people in the Sanders camp, etc.
See, except you don’t see, I have facts to back up whatever I say, except when I clearly identify my words as my own opinions.
You are reduced to calling me names and talking like a preacher, telling people that if they believe what scientists have to say, they will burn in hell. Acceptance of YOUR argument depends ENTIRELY on taking it literally as a matter of faith, not to be questioned.
You’re the Wizard of Oz, and I’m the little doggy pulling back the curtain exposing your huffing and puffing and lies.
One day before long, I will post some relevant facts associated with the Whitewater scandal.
Here’s a teaser.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitewater_controversy
And from an NPR program, which you can bet your ass was slanted to the maximum extent possible to make the Clintons look no more guilty than necessary.
“Outcome: Neither Bill nor Hillary Clinton faced prosecution for their involvement in Whitewater. But their public statements about the matter, and the handling of documents that went missing and later reappeared, came under intense scrutiny. Their partners in the real estate investment were Jim McDougal and his then-wife Susan. Jim McDougal was convicted of fraud charges for making bad loans and he died of heart disease in a Texas prison. Susan was convicted of fraud in connection with obtaining a $300,000 federally-backed small business loan. She refused to answer grand jury questions in the Whitewater affair and was held in contempt of court, spending 18 months in jail. Bill Clinton pardoned her before he left the White House in early 2001.”
Does this smell sort of like last week’s fish? I mean, you have two IVY League lawyers who are EITHER associates of crooks, or so fucking STUPID they can’t recognize such crooks for what they are, and enter into business partnerships with them??
Rube again, “Your beating a dead horse”
You need to get over your “hate”
Exciting times for neutron star aficionados:
SQUISHY OR SOLID? A NEUTRON STAR’S INSIDES OPEN TO DEBATE
“The core of a neutron star is such an extreme environment that physicists can’t agree on what happens inside. But a new space-based experiment — and a few more colliding neutron stars — should reveal whether neutrons themselves break down.”
From the perspective of nuclear physics, neutron stars could just be protons and neutrons, collectively called nucleons, all the way in — but maybe not! Maybe there’s a quark core or hyperon core or even a kaon condensate core. And, where do magnetars get their immense magnetic fields from (10^11 (or even 10^15 gauss)) and how, precisely, are jets generated?
https://www.quantamagazine.org/squishy-or-solid-a-neutron-stars-insides-open-to-debate-20171030/
Probably forming a strange kind of superconductor near the center.
Neutron stars have long been suspected to contain superfluid neutrons, and superfluid (since protons are charged), superconducting protons. The content of a neutron star’s core is quite a topical issue now. It could be “merely” neutrons plus some protons (10%). It could include more exotic subatomic particles, including some with strange quarks. It could even be things like kaon condensates. No one is really sure. A precise measurement of the mass and radius of an individual neutron star would tell us a lot, since the content of the core affects the maximum possible mass and the relation between mass and radius for neutron stars. Mass measurements exist, but accurate radius measurements are extremely tough: they are either imprecise or highly dependent on models (i.e., not reliable), or usually both. This is changing as better X-ray spectroscopy becomes available.
Would the composition of a neutron star depend on it’s mass, more mass more density? Is there a lower and upper limit to the mass of a neutron star?
NAOM
“Would the composition of a neutron star depend on its mass?” Depends how you define composition. Neutrons may degenerate into other forms of matter depending on pressure, temperature, etc. as you approach the “core”.
“Is there a lower and upper limit to the mass of a neutron star?” Yes, stellar core collapse will result in a white dwarf, a neutron star, or a black hole, depending on its final mass. The minimum observed mass for a neutron star is about 1.2 solar mass. The upper bound on neutron star mass seems to be about 2.9 solar mass (perhaps less). However, a neutron star’s maximum mass is related to properties of matter at densities far beyond that found in heavy atomic nuclei and the physics of this is poorly understood.
Thanks, very helpful. Seems like quite a small range of masses.
NAOM
BP AND SHELL PLANNING FOR CATASTROPHIC 5°C GLOBAL WARMING DESPITE PUBLICLY BACKING PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bp-shell-oil-global-warming-5-degree-paris-climate-agreement-fossil-fuels-temperature-rise-a8022511.html
https://shareaction.org
Oil giants Shell and BP are planning for global temperatures to rise as much as 5°C by the middle of the century. The level is more than double the upper limit committed to by most countries in the world under the Paris Climate Agreement, which both companies publicly support.
The headline is a bit over the top for what the reports say, but they are worth a read.
Well George, 5°C would be an unmitigated fucking disaster; may as well pack up our tents and take up religion. Maybe one where you live in Valhalla because earth will (would) become living hell. Hard to imagine how you would plan for 5°C. Any suggestions?
Meanwhile,
CLIMATE TROUBLE MAY BE BUBBLING UP IN FAR NORTH
Researchers say air temperatures here in northwest Canada, in Siberia and elsewhere in the Arctic have risen more than 2.5 C (4.5 F) since 1970, much faster than the global average. The summer thaw is reaching deeper into frozen soil, at a rate of 4 centimeters (1.5 inches) a year, and a further 7 C (13 F) temperature rise is possible this century, says the authoritative, U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Researchers led by the University of Florida’s Ted Schuur last year calculated that the top three meters (10 feet) of permafrost alone contain more carbon than is currently in the atmosphere. “It’s safe to say the surface permafrost, 3 to 5 meters, is at risk of thawing in the next 100 years,” Schuur said by telephone from an Alaska research site. “It can’t stay intact.”
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/JustOneThing/story?id=8457650
…in the next 100 years…
Wow! So that means not in any of our lifetimes. Not even our investment lifetimes.
Just our children’s’.
NAOM
Hard to imagine how you would plan for 5°C. Any suggestions?
Um, Soylent Green? Well, maybe just Soylent drink…
Given that a 5°C rise in global average temperatures would pretty much mean then end of agriculture and food production as we know it today we need to get serious about alternative energy for our bodies! No more corn wheat or soy and no more cows, pigs, chickens or farmed fish either.
Hey, I’m already eating a gateway insect product. It’s a cricket protein energy bar. Maybe I’ll try this new Soylent drink next. In the meantime if anyone runs into our current Secretary of State Rex Tillerson or Shell’s CEO Ben van Beurden, tell them that planet wants them both to go fuck themselves.
http://www.businessinsider.com/rising-stars-series-neil-degrasse-tyson-soylent-rob-rhinehart-2017-10
Neil deGrasse Tyson and Soylent CEO Rob Rhinehart break down what it would take to get us to a meal-in-a-pill
Neil deGrasse Tyson talks to Rob Rhinehart, the founder and CEO of Soylent. Neil tries Soylent and gives his take on the meal replacement drink.
.
There are things called mountains. They can be thousands of feet high and some have nice plateaus. I figure about 2500 to 3000 feet up would make it cool enough at my latitude. Lots of wind up there too to use for power. That and small waterfalls.
Mountain Man? Don’t forget to take lots of bullets and guns. From what I’ve seen and heard, Yanks aren’t as civil as the Swiss. 🙂
I grew up around mountain people, far better than most of the yahoos down in flatville. Once the city people that moved up there are gone, it will be quite nice again. They will leave as soon as the drugs dry up.
Being shot by a polite person is not different than being shot by an ornery old cuss.
Any suggestions?
Well, this was Burroughs thoughts:
“get me off this hot, crowded, cop ridden planet”
-or something like that
Doug – have I any suggestions … er …
“Hang on a minute lads I’ve, gotta great idea … um … um” (C. Croker)
Damn! That makes a nice segue, for the fossil fuel fossils, – all together now
“This is the self-preservation society
This is the self-preservation society”
NAOM
Dang, Javier and OFM have worn out my mouse, need a new one!
5°C by mid-century – just 30 years or so…
Doesn’t sound like something you could plan for, that’s not only extreme but happening way to fast for technology to react. Maybe we could grow crops indoors under climate control. Nice thing is it also eliminates the need for pesticides and herbicides. Not all that crazy, still easier than growing something on Mars, but sounds like there wont be enough time.
Our techno narcissistic friends are not going to save us.
If fact, they are part of the problem.
The articles said 3 to 5 and probably not so fast, as I said the headline was extreme (The Independent is going bust so maybe they are switching tactics to get readers, they used to be the voice of reason – probably hence the money troubles). Although the low end of the ranges are bad enough (and maybe unstoppable now). It’s the psychology and denial issues that are quite interesting. We like to think we are rational and far thinking but really evolution and short term reproductive drive is what influences everything, and in our culture that means status and money – which means jobs, so we can have children, just because that is what we are evolved to do (and then we use our higher brains to post rationalise why we did it).
New Greenland maps show more glaciers at risk
High-resolution charts will inform future ice and sea level forecasts
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171101151227.htm
(just a plot to destroy capitalism, and more important, raise taxes?)
Hey all you educated folks.
I’ve been lurking(mostly) for some time but a question has recently come up that I’m having trouble googling, since all the results invariably point to a trend opposite the one I’m interested in. They are all about “global warming” or something, maybe you’ve heard of it?
Anyway, What I’m Trying to Figure Out is this: We know over geologic history that the Earth goes through long cycles of cooling and heating, and we seem to have a very deep understanding of what causes the heating portion of the cycle. But what causes the cooling portion in the middle half of the environmental sine curve? As I said, googling WITFO is producing rather unhelpful results.
My (simple) understanding: natural earth orbit and sun cycles cool things down a bit, especially in the Northern Hemisphere; permafrost expands a bit there which locks in some CO2; less CO2 in the atmosphere (and maybe some albedo change from more ice) means the earth cools a bit more; permafrost and ice expand a bit more; more CO2 gets taken out (also the natural orbit cooling might still be increasing, but that is a much smaller effect on temperature than the GHGs and can reverse without stopping the runaway cooling it started); repeat until there’s a new equilibrium or things just naturally start going the other way or something like a bunch of volcanoes going off to suddenly add a load of CO2 to the atmosphere. It takes thousands of years, even the volcano option, which is still very short by geological standards but really slow by what’s happening at the moment.
ps We don’t have the volcanoes any more so there’s a theory that if we go into a full snowball earth again (could be 250 million years) we won’t come out until the sun starts expanding in a few billion. We get to the snowball because CO2 is taken out permanently by rock weathering, and I think the theory is that can only happen if the continents line up so there is no land at either pole – the exact mechanism I’ve forgotten, but might be google-able.
Nice explanation George.
I could not have done as well with as few words (and likely could not have done any better with twice the word count).
The 65 north differential in solar input can be as much as 110 watts/m2 depending primarily on the eccentricity of the orbit.
The other important factor is the 26,000 year axial precession. If perihelion coincides with the northern hemisphere winter solstice then warming occurs. The opposite is true of aphelion. This is important because of the differential of land area between northern and southern hemispheres. Large land areas in the north can cool or heat rapidly, either increasing snowfall or decreasing it. With up to 23% difference in solar irradience across the orbit this becomes the largest factor in initiating or removing a glaciation.
Also, as exhibited by the last glaciation event, though it appeared to last for 100,000 years, the glaciers actually grew and receded multiple times in that period before finally receding dramatically to form the warm period called the Holocene that is somewhat recorded historically.
As can be seen from the graph below, there were several major increases in northern insolation during the glacial period between Eemian and Holocene, thus helping to explain the glacial oscillations in that period.
Of course in the very long term, mountain building and the chemistry of mountains determines the temperature and CO2 levels of the planet. See my next comment.
Fool’s Gold or is it what kept our planet alive?
THE POWER OF PYRITE
Without mountains, Earth could be as cold and lifeless as Mars
Young ranges in particular—like the Himalayas, Rockies, and Andes—bring crucial minerals from the earth’s mantle to the surface. Calcium is abundant in these minerals, and it frequently binds to carbon dioxide in the air and turns into limestone. Rain, snow and wind dissolve the limestone and send it back to the ocean, where it settles.
Louis Derry, a geochemist from New York’s Cornell University (who was unaffiliated with the study) says this process should have sucked the carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere eons ago. Too much CO2 contributes to global warming, but too little would have made the earth a much colder place, preventing life from developing. “If it weren’t for feedback mechanisms, it would only take 5-10 million years to screw things up,” Derry says. Scientists know of some feedback mechanisms that could have slowed the cooling, but these on their own don’t explain our climate’s long-held stability. Even volcanoes, which belch carbon into the air, would not be enough to offset its relentless sequestration into the deep oceans.
https://qz.com/189869/without-fools-gold-earth-could-be-as-cold-and-lifeless-as-mars/
The actual paper.
https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/Torres_etal_2014_Nat_SulfideWeatheringCO2_0.pdf
Aren’t we dumping a lot of sulfur into the atmosphere and water? Hmmm. Are we providing another global source of CO2? Ahhh, the Fe-ey of it all.
Either you are a moron or a Troll or maybe both! A quick search in Google Scholar returns about 800,000 results on a first try. Then again maybe your anti science ideology or economic interests don’t jive with what is in those papers so you label what they are saying as unhelpful. Of course it is possible that you are just too ignorant and stupid to understand the content of those papers…
justanta?! Really?! Where do you trolls go, to come up with your ridiculous handles?
If you’re going to post with a nickname, make it a good one, like Fred Magyar. Derivatives could include Dave American, Joey Canadian, Abdulkadir Djiboutian, and so on. ???????
Take your pathetical, puerile emojis and fuck off back to your soft play area where they might appreciate you more you moronic POS.
Cut a little slack. They may or may not be a troll, time will tell, but their points seem reasonable, so far, maybe their googlefu isn’t up to ours. Treat with respect until proven bad, which I hope not.
NAOM
Hi Fred,
In the light of day and me not being nearly so tired, it does seem entirely easy to find the results I was looking for. I think my problem is because I was looking for causes that reverse a warming period, and so my search included terms such as “warming” and “reversal” which was skewing my search results. Although I think George’s plain English explanation probably gave me a quicker and wider basis for understanding than I could have gotten on my own, the question still seems superfluous looking back.
As far as the nickname goes, it is JUst ANother Throw Away.
Anyway, I’ll catch up to you “folks” in the new thread and maybe make a better impression. Seems I only managed to annoy half of you, which is better than my usual average so the signs are promising.
Go to
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/
read everything there
then try
http://ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
read the “physical science basis” report (executive summary and then go to individual chapters when you have questions).
also lectures by David Archer at University of Chicago are good if you don’t like reading.
Or try your local library, the book linked below is pretty complete.
https://www.amazon.com/Global-Warming-Complete-John-Houghton-ebook/dp/B00VAOVPAY/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1509632815&sr=8-2-fkmr0&keywords=lobal+warming+textbook
Not always the same answer either, the many cooling periods have many causes; volcanoes, solar cycles, asteroid impacts, tree growth etc. If, after reading the links above, try asking about one cooling event in particular that puzzles you.
NAOM
A short answer is removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by natural processes. See
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004JC002625/full
where the process is described. It happens over 10,000 to 100,000 years.
About 50% of emitted CO2 is sequestered very quickly (1 to 3 years), then about 80% is sequestered after 1000 years, 90% is sequestered after 10,000 years and about 94% after 100,000 years (see table 1 in the paper linked above).
I assume here a 1000 Pg anthropogenic pulse of carbon emissions at year zero followed by no further carbon emissions after year zero.
Before humans these pulses may have been caused by volcanoes, or changes in landforms due to melting of Northern hemisphere ice sheets due to Milankovitch cycles. Also movement of the Indian subcontinent into the Eurasian land mass is thought to have released carbon into the atmosphere so continental drift may have played a role.
Troll or no, it’s hard to say without running the risk of making a serious mistake. As a teacher I was asked thousands of questions that would have elicited a reply along the lines of Goddamn how COULD you be so stupid or ignorant, if the question had come from an adult on the street.
My guess is troll, but there’s no way of being sure. If Justanta is real and serious, making fun of him makes an enemy of him.
We have enemies ENOUGH already.
Half or three quarters of these particular questions came from smart asses, so I gradually stocked my tool box with humorous stock answers that answered them as well as turning the tables.
But as many as half of them came from kids who were asking them in good faith.
The average or typical man or woman who wanders into this forum from off the internet street is no more capable of reading a scientific paper than I am of reading Chinese or ancient Egyptian scripts.
He will be able to recognize the letters, other than the Greek letters, and some of the the numbers,but not scientific notation, etc, but past that……….. he’s as hopeless and helpless as a three year old kid lost in a wilderness .
These observations bring me to my point. I’m working hard trying to find ways to describe the numerous natural processes that impact the climate and the biosphere that will be intelligible to readers who have zero or near zero understanding of the sciences.
The classic great example that works is the greenhouse example, because just about everybody who is apt to read anything I write knows how a car with the windows rolled up heats up in the sun, and they can make the leap in their heads that green house gases in the air are actually invisible insulation / reflectors that trap the heat of the sun. Potential readers will also know about radiating heat back into space at night because they will have noticed that it cools off much faster and to a much greater degree on a still clear night than on a still cloudy night.
You can take this to the bank, as coming from a former professional pedagogue who dealt with the less educated half of the population of this country , professionally, for several years full time, and part time for forty plus years. I’m still trying, part time. You cannot explain science using science, to people who don’t know any science.
You’re in the same situation as the proverbial English speaker who is utterly convinced that his intended audience that speaks only Chinese or Russian or Portuguese will be able to understand English if only he shouts loudly enough and slowly enough.
The audience may actually recognize half the words, but as far as UNDERSTANDING is concerned………… well, you’re pissing into the wind, my friends, from half to three quarters of the time, here in the USA. Maybe a quarter of us know enough to make SOME sense out of George’s two forty three am reply to Justanta.
If I am to communicate effectively with the three quarters, I have solve two pretty tough problems. First off, I have to write in such a way as to attract the attention of people who NEED to read my book and to entertain them so they WILL read it, without pissing them off and driving them into the Trump/ R camp.
And second, I have to find ways to describe the critical natural processes and events that determine climate in ways that are comprehensible to them given what they actually KNOW, ways that they can relate to things that they have EXPERIENCED in their lives.
If we want positive change, politically, well, there’s only one way, in the last analysis, to get it. We have to convince middle of the road voters to vote leftish, and some right wingers to vote middle of the road.
Liberal / progressive types in the past resorted to the court system to get what they wanted, and got it, in large part, but they failed to properly estimate the risks of political backlash. Nick and others are entitled to their opinions as to why the R/Trump crowd controls this country today, just as I’m entitled to mine.
They control it for the reason that they have been winning the culture war for the last few decades, and they are now positioned to put in their sort of judges, including on the Supreme Court, to entrench themselves even further. Sure the Koch brothers media can keep the right wingers stirred up, but they can do so ONLY because the MORES AND VALUES of the foot soldiers on the right wing are such that this stirring WORKS.
It won’t work forever, because the old folks who take these conservative values seriously and are the core of the right wing coalition are dying off already, and they will mostly be gone within another twenty years. Demographic trends, barring bad luck, will result in the leftish liberalish wing gaining control of the country.
But we can’t afford to wait twenty years.
You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar. A LOT MORE.
OFM,
No offense but go back and read his post a little more carefully!
The Troll red flags are quite abundant. Starting with his opening!
Hey all you educated folks.
Or how about this:
I’m having trouble googling, since all the results invariably point to a trend opposite the one I’m interested in. They are all about “global warming” or something, maybe you’ve heard of it?
Maybe you’ve heard of it?!
Give me a fucking break!
Hi Fred. My intention was to be a bit light-hearted and cheeky, but I do see how on a forum where you get so many idiots on a daily basis, that as a new poster it may have been a better idea to establish myself. I’m on my way to the office but when I get in I’ll give a more detailed reply regarding what my googlefu difficulties were and then maybe we can have a discussion?
Ok, I’m more than willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.
Hi Fred,
I said my guess is that he’s a troll. But I take it you may not be as skilled in interpreting the nuances of American colloquial conversation as I am, ahem. His language can be interpreted as light hearted self deprecation, just as I refer to myself as Trumpster.
Yes, the second quote does indicate he is almost for sure a troll, but if YOU read it again, you will find that maybe he IS REAL, and asking a REAL question, and doesn’t know how to search for the information he is looking for…….. information about what brings on the ice ages. If you search using the wrong words, you sure as hell will get ALMOST ALL HITS hits all about anthropogenic or forced warming, and hardly any at all about climate cycles as such, in the first few hundred or thousand links. There’s a real possibility he is real, and telling it like it is, in respect to what links he is getting.
Just today I found out that a kid I know who is twenty four years old and was educated in a pretty decent private school, and who spent two wasted years at a good university didn’t know that when he buys new tires for his car, they don’t come with new wheels. So he thinks he can buy tires and install them himself, because he did manage to put on his spare when he had a flat, by watching a video.
NOBODY ever went broke overestimating the stupidity and or ignorance of the general public.
“Ain’t we got all the fools in town on our side? And ain’t that a big enough majority in any town?” That’s from Huck Finn.
You have my apology, I don’t mean to give YOU any personal grief. .
My larger point still stands. Tens of millions of people do indeed ask questions that we are apt to take the wrong way, leading to our insulting their intelligence, or education , or morals or values.
We have enemies enough.
Some how I fear that the width and depth of the ignorance of the typical man on the street is virtually incomprehensible to people who hang out with other educated people. People are easily offended, and once offended, they tend to close their ears and eyes to any arguments presented by people they have taken a dislike to.
And it’s not as if they are STUPID, it’s that they’re like computers spitting out garbage because they are loaded with garbage data, or not enough data.
That’s all fine and dandy! Though at this point I’m willing to shoot first and ask questions later. I’ll bet that I still hit more trolls than innocent bystanders. Let’s see what justanta has to say next. If he/she is for real then I’ll apologize and see if we can have a real discussion.
Even in Vaudeville they used a hook.
New maps of Greenland’s coastal seafloor and bedrock beneath its massive ice sheet show that two to four times as many coastal glaciers are at risk of accelerated melting as previously thought.
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6990&utm_source=iContact&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NASAJPL&utm_content=earth20171101
Hi all,
A new Electric Power Monthly post by Island boy is up
http://peakoilbarrel.com/eias-electric-power-monthly-october-2017-edition-with-data-for-august/
Any non-petroleum comments should go there, thanks.
We also have an Open Thread- Petroleum
http://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-petroleum-november-2-2017/