375 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, November 22, 2017”

  1. To Stan, re comment in last Non Petroleum Thread.
    You said: “Since he doesn’t have a truck to sell yet, I guess that doesn’t matter, presently.”

    Actually he does, and he probably told his future customers more about his trucks than he is telling the rest of us who are not in the market for The Big Rigs.

    http://fortune.com/2017/11/17/tesla-walmart-electric-semi-trucks/

    Tesla’s new electric semi-trucks just got the thumbs up from Walmart.

    The retail giant said Friday that it has pre-ordered 15 Tesla Semis—the official name of the vehicles—for testing.

    Walmart (WMT, -0.11%) joins a list of other big companies that have preordered the electric trucks, including J.B. Hunt Transport Services, which said it would buy an unspecified number, and Michigan-based grocery chain Meijer, which has preodered four of the vehicles.

    1. I’m willing to bet that these trucks are going to be capable of doing any and all sorts of close quarters maneuvering effortlessly, so long as the trailer has add on cameras and sensors, which are just about a dead sure bet to be coming with the tractor, and equipped with magnets, or velcro or something else suitable so they can be hung on the trailer anytime they’re needed. They’ll be wireless of course.

      Even if the Tesla truck isn’t entirely self driving, the day has come when any secretary or retail clerk will be able to get a CDL and drive locally or over the road.

      Driver’s wages are going to crash, even if most new trucks sold five or ten years from now still use conventional engines. Fully automated transmissions and so forth virtually guarantee it.

      I’m guessing that beginning five years from now, a trucking company will be able to save at least a hundred grand over the NEXT five years because driving is going to be easier and easier, to the point about all the driver has to do is stay awake and alert. Five years after that…….. maybe a lot sooner…. there won’t be any need for a driver at all, unless good customer relations justify the expense.

      1. Yair . . . .

        From life experience I think OFM in right.

        When Mack came out with their Quadruplex transmission back in the early sixties drivers who mastered the art of shifting two gearlevers simultaneously every few minutes every day earned a few bucks more . . . in other word there were truck drivers and Mack drivers.

        I well remember ringing up about a job and the first question was, “Can you drive a Mack?”

        I might add that driving those transmissions to their full capabilities was an acquired art rather than a skill. “Missing” a compound shift going up or down pretty much necessitated coming to a halt and starting again, there is no more unforgiving piece of machinery than a Mack gearbox full of neutral and crunch.

        Hauling a D9 and half the scrub chain I grossed out at around 180,000 pounds, had 275 hp under the bonnet, 12 or 14 useable ratios and 28 mph differentials.

        How things have changed.

        Cheers.

    3. Fred,
      According to all I’ve read, production is to start in 2019. Some Tesla-watchers say they expect delays due to bottlenecks in the factory, saying there isn’t enough room for the car capacity needed plus trucks. That’s all just growing pains for any new venture.
      And yes, I’m sure Musk had told his customers more than he’s telling me. LOL

      OFM,
      The day has been here for several years when any secretary or whatever could get a CDL and a driving job. The large carriers have been running their own driver-mills for years. The big-company yearly turnover rate runs around 70% to 100% for over-the-road drivers.
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryjosephs/2016/01/06/100-driver-turnover-hurts-trucking-industry-correct-ma-approach-can-fix-it/#734ebabe50f2
      I doubt whether crashing driver pay will help very much. There’s really not a shortage of drivers anyway, just a shortage of good drivers who want to put up with the job for what it pays. Haven’t you said as much in the past, maybe concerning some other job?
      Maybe that’s why Musk didn’t target the local pu/delivery market first. Maybe he’s expecting to be able to quickly go full AV for long-haul, thus having the “driver shortage” in his favor.

      Stan

      1. Hi Stan,

        We’re pretty much on the same page.

        My intention was to point out that cheaper driver’s will help the buyers of new trucks, electric or otherwise, justify the additional expense of owning them. The easier the trucks are to drive, the easier it is to hire drivers for less.

        It’s very true that not many people are willing to put up with the hassles of being an over the road trucker. The usual goal for almost everybody in the trade is to land a local job with more or less regular hours and decent benefits.

        The usual route to a home every night trucker’s job is a nice clean record and resume proving you will show up without fail and very likely never have an accident or even get a moving violation ticket.

        Owners engaged in over the road trucking don’t give a damn about their drivers, but companies that own their own trucks and operate them exclusively on their own business treat drivers about as well or better than they do other employees.

        One thing that hardly anybody knows about the industry is that today’s drivers work under such sorry circumstances due to a previous generation of drivers lobbying for the very rules and regulations that make it possible for long haul and for hire trucking companies to jerk drivers around like draft animals, but that’s a story for another day.

  3. Over in the Texas Update I discussed the Penn East pipeline and the trouble being had about getting it through. It will have a capacity of up to one billion cfm per day of natural gas out of the northeastern Marcellus in Pennsylvania and carry it into New Jersey. Now whether it will ever reach capacity is another matter.
    Just consider this, the 125 foot swath would produce 6.72 million kWh of energy average per day if covered with PV. The great thing is that the PV does not have to be in the swath, nor does it have to cut across a lot of parks, swamps, forest, and streams. The PV can be placed anywhere convenient and non-harmful, nearer or at the users even. Maybe even on the dead malls.
    So why put that pipeline in at all? It will be mostly useless in 15 years with the gas from the fields fading away, while the sun just keeps shining down on us.
    The land of more and more is about to come to a crunching halt in the next two or three decades unless we start acting and thinking smarter than we have before.

  4. WORLDWIDE INCREASE IN METHANE BUBBLES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

    Due to climate change, including rising temperatures, more and more methane is bubbling up from lakes, ponds, rivers and wetlands throughout the world. The release of methane — a potent greenhouse gas — leads to a further increase in temperature, thus creating a positive feedback loop (also known as a ‘vicious circle’). Never before have such unequivocal, strong relationships between temperature and emissions of methane bubbles been shown on such a wide, continent-spanning scale.” says biologist Sarian Kosten of Radboud University.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171122093100.htm

    1. Double, double toil and trouble;
      Fire burn and caldron bubble.
      ——
      Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.

      We have decidedly more than doubled our toil and trouble. Definitely had the fires burning and cauldron bubbling. Shades of Shakespeare’s witches singing round the pot, what hell broth have we wrought?

      The problem is worldwide, not just in the Arctic. Just about anywhere there is a stream, a pond, lake, river, swamp or marsh.
      The only things I did not like was “Luckily, the opposite is also true: if we emit less greenhouse gas and the temperature drops, we gain a bonus in the form of less methane production.” The emitting less greenhouse gas and having the temperature drop time is over. It’s not just methane that is forced and forces, it’s water vapor, CO2 and albedo changes, all interacting.

      And the fun part, we too interact with the rising temperature, causing another positive feedback.

    1. Recent decline? ROFL.
      Sandy was not even included.
      In sheer power, Hurricane Sandy ranks second among modern hurricanes, beating even Hurricane Katrina, according to Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. Out in the Atlantic Ocean, Sandy was the most energetic tropical cyclone in history, thanks to its massive wind field.Nov 2, 2012

      I guess that paper goes in the trash, especially after what just happened lately.

      BTW, whenever I see the term multi-decadal oscillations in a paper I flinch and become very skeptical, then look around for the guys and gals with painted faces dancing round the computers shaking curve fitting rattles at it. 🙂

  6. Happy Thanksgiving to all! Be sure to bundle up tomorrow in the east, as the cold phase of global warming will be in appearance there.

    3. Thanks for the warning.
      Not here, going up into the fifties. Your underwear is way too tight, choking off the blood to your brain.

    5. Meanwhile elsewhere looks like Denver may break a record for heat for November 23rd and on Thanksgiving.

    6. I’m beginning to think Bob may actually be a friend of the environment……..

      Maybe he’s a closet environmentalist in fossil fuel fan cammies considering he’s regularly posting weather maps showing warming dominating, but denying it in his text.

      Great way to make fun of fossil fuel fans!

      .

    7. Actually, the more I look at that red blob, the more it looks like a turkey…

      1. The Climate Reanalyzer site that widdle Bobby likes to link to, with his cherry picked images is actually a serious climate and weather site with lots of good data.
        Here is a look at his image taken in a global context.
        http://cci-reanalyzer.org/about/news/
        Scroll down to fourth image.
        .

        1. Do you mean that its not only Javier who plays the cherry picking game?

          1. There’s more cherry pickers on this topic than in any cherry orchard during harvest…

    8. Holy Shit! The middle and the west look like they’re on fire! Wasn’t the middle the part that Bob was showing us as unseasonably cold not too long ago?

      1. Hi Islandboy,

        That’s the thing about weather, it changes hourly (continuously would be more accurate.)

    9. This one seals the deal for me that Mr. Frisky is a jokester having a go.

      1. Postmodern irony – he’s taking the piss out of himself at the same time as talking crap; and in fact meta – he’s taking the piss out of the whole comment-on-a blog thing while ostensibly seriously commenting on a blog … or he might be just serious, but I hope not.

  8. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone…wishing ya’ll a very wonderful and blessed day!

  9. Your morning smile:

    CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS ARE PLOTTING TRUMP’S PATH TO THE HOLY GRAIL OF DEREGULATION

    During a question-and-answer period at the America First Energy Conference in Houston this month, an audience member had an inquiry for panelists at a session billed as one of the day’s most important. Why not sue the Environmental Protection Agency over its efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions? After all, CO2 is essential to all life on earth, he noted.

    Harry MacDougald, an attorney on the panel, smiled and pointed to David Schnare, a former member of President Donald Trump’s EPA transition team who had a combative relationship with climate scientists during his more than three decades at the agency. Schnare also smiled before leaning into the mic. “We’re going to do that. It won’t be everybody on Earth, but … I think we’re going to look at specific farmers, large farmers who are harmed by reductions in CO2. I think that’s where we’re going,” Schnare said.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/22/climate-change-deniers-plot-trumps-path-to-deregulation.html

  10. https://www.yahoo.com/news/bmw-hopes-ai-managed-electric-080200969.html

    Considering that BMW is a major manufacturer of cars, the fact that the company is seriously interested in bikes is an excellent argument to use in discussing oil depletion and the environment with fossil fuel fans.

    I’m all for bikes, especially in any case where it looks like it’s possible to have covered or even enclosed bike paths and routes that are safe and practical during wet or cold weather.

    If a standard communications protocol is enabled in such electric bikes, it might be possible to make them almost autonomous very cheaply, so long as they are on dedicated paths or routes. Once leaving such a path or route, the rider could just ride as usual, but without having to work up a sweat pedaling.

    But I’m not seeing much in the way of articles about reducing the NEED for so much transportation.

    How long will it be before we see real communities and real cities so organized that most people don’t NEED to go very far very often ?

    1. But I’m not seeing much in the way of articles about reducing the NEED for so much transportation.

      I posted a link in the last thread to a video about local manufacturing with 3D printing technology and cheap naturally occurring raw materials. This has the potential to seriously disrupt traditional manufacturing supply chains and to drastically reduce the need for global shipping and transportation.

      We are rapidly entering uncharted waters and I think the oil business is not the only global business that will be left hanging onto vast amounts of stranded assets.
      Trump’s made in China, mass produced MAGA hats, will be replaced by locally sourced and individually tailored FUCK YOU hats!

  11. Tesla Semi Priced From $150,000 (300 Mile) & $180,000 (500 Mile)

    Tesla announced tentative pricing for its electric semi.

    The 300-miles (480 km) range version starts at $150,000, while the 500-mile (800 km) range version starts at $180,000. The prices are “expected“, which means some changes are still possible.

    Tesla Semi prices – November 22, 2017

    The difference of $30,000 for a 200-mile upgrade translates into ~$150 per mile of additional range.

    Taking into consideration Tesla’s energy consumption number <2 kWh/mile, the 200 miles of added range requires less than 400 kWh of additional capacity. The kWh price of the additional battery would then cost more than $75/kWh (we assume the cost is somewhere between $75 and $100 per kWh).

    It would appear that Tesla has some very lofty ambitions for battery prices at the Gigafactory. With less than 40 days left in 2017, I have a hunch 2018 is going to be a tipping point for EVs. I have a feeling that folks involved in the manufacture of road going vehicles powered by infernal combustion engines are getting increasingly anxious. Seba’s musings about the superiority of electric drive trains in performance and eventually cost are looking increasingly cogent. The Tesla Semi and the new Roadster are a warning to the old guard, change or have your lunch eaten! By 2020 the landscape will look significantly different. Remember I said so! 😉

    1. Up until very recently, I was skeptical that batteries would be cheap enough to REALLY start displacing conventional cars, never mind commercial trucks, for years to come. This is one case I don’t mind admitting I have been too pessimistic.

      Now here’s something that deserves some serious thought and commentary.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-23/u-k-faces-longest-fall-in-living-standards-since-records-began

      A fall in living standards is not necessarily exactly the same thing as a decline in the quality of life, although the two measures do mostly overlap.

      Some of us believe our living standards have been and are being supported today, at the expense of our future welfare, by way of piling up debts, financial and or environmental, that cannot be repaid. I’m one of the AND believers.

      Here’s an observation that won’t go over so well here, but it’s obvious to me that a LOT of people I know personally are living far better than they would be otherwise, due to being supported by various welfare and safety net programs.

      ( Keep in mind that I live in one of the more economically depressed parts of the country, bordering W VA which is famously backwards economically, so these programs support a lot more people in my area than in other parts of the country. )

      I’m not opposed to these programs, because ( enjoy yourselves, the ones of you who like to make fun of Christians including nominal Christians such as yours truly ) my culture teaches compassion and support for those in need, and beyond that, some of my relatives and friends are beneficiaries.

      BUT….. I am wondering……… when economic statistics are collected, crunched, interpreted, and then published, with all the people involved necessarily having agendas of their own, some respectable and upright, some less so………..

      Do such statistics truly reflect the actual measure of our living standards? Five thousand bucks in welfare that puts food in the belly of a disabled person actually contributes a hell of a lot more to human happiness and dignity than the same five thousand spent on fashionable clothing that will be at Goodwill in a year or two.

      1. Up until very recently, I was skeptical that batteries would be cheap enough to REALLY start displacing conventional cars, never mind commercial trucks, for years to come. This is one case I don’t mind admitting I have been too pessimistic.

        Yep and Elon just delivered the biggest battery ever built ahead of schedule!

        http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/23/technology/tesla-south-australia-battery-wind-farm/

        Elon Musk is making good on his promise to help solve an energy crisis in Australia.
        Tesla (TSLA) has “fully installed” the world’s largest lithium ion battery in South Australia, the state government said in a statement on Thursday.
        Tesla teamed up with a French renewable energy firm and the local government to install the battery, which Musk promised to deliver within 100 days of signing a contract — or it would be free.

        As for this:

        Here’s an observation that won’t go over so well here, but it’s obvious to me that a LOT of people I know personally are living far better than they would be otherwise, due to being supported by various welfare and safety net programs.

        Those folk are still part of the lucky few. It no longer holds true for large swaths of the population.

        I think Jerry Davis, Associate Dean for Business & Impact, University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business hits the nail on the head with his take on the American Corporate business model and it’s consequences on American society in the 21st century.

        Intersting discussion here:
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loW76HdYxUY

        The Economist and American Nobel laureate, Paul Samuelson, once said, “when my information changes, I alter my conclusions”. The Financial crisis happened ten years ago yet we don’t seem to have altered our approach to how we manage the economy.

        The bailing out of the UK banks during the financial crisis cost over £1 trillion, and that figure doesn’t tell the whole story: think of the impact on real wages, the social and financial repercussions of austerity, and the erosion of trust in the corporate sector. Laurie Macfarlane, Economics Editor at openDemocracy, will ask what there is to learn from the crisis, and discuss how the economy could really create long term, distributed prosperity.

        Recent years have also seen a decline in the number of US corporates. What factors are responsible for their decline, and what is different about the 21st century corporate? This is a puzzle that Jerry Davis likes to get to grips with. The old-fashioned corporate was once the source of lifelong career ladders, and of retirement savings for millions. In the era of the more footloose 21st century corporate, how do we promote economic and social security?

        Join both of our guests for a fascinating discussion about the change that needs to come.

        We all know the system is badly broken. A fascist corporatist Neo-Nationalist America, is probably the worst thing that could possibly happen at this particular junction in world history but that is where we seem to have gotten. This too shall pass but the question remains, how quickly and how much damage will it do to the fabric of American society?!

      2. Hi OFM,

        Living standard is difficult. One should try to use objective measures such as real GDP per capita, life expectancy, and other health measures, as well as income distribution (GINI coefficient).

        There is no perfect measure and welfare is by nature subjective, so objective measures cannot capture welfare very well.

      3. The UK drop in living standards — well, that’s Tories. When Tories run the government to transfer all wealth to the new aristocrats, of course everyone else suffers falling living standards. This is the same dynamic which brought about the Dark Ages.

    2. About the Tesla truck, road taxes, and cost of electricity versus the cost of diesel……

      It won’t be very long before the bau crowd manages to force a serious per mile highway tax on electric trucks, once they get to be common.

      So lets say that, just guessing, after this tax is added to the cost of operation, a trucking company can save anywhere from maybe twenty bucks per day on up to maybe a hundred and fifty or even two hundred bucks per day by going electric, on diesel fuel ALONE.

      The possible range of savings is so wide because not all these trucks will run a lot of miles and use a lot of fuel……. A truck used for city deliveries may run less than a hundred miles per day, with no miles at night, because the delivery locations are mostly closed up. The same company may run another truck five or six hundred miles,out and back, delivering from a central warehouse to a couple of big box stores. In a few cases, there will be a night shift driver as well, with daily mileage approaching a thousand miles, if adequate charging facilities are available .

      The price of diesel may shoot up to four or five bucks or more, without much if any increase in the taxes on it.

      At two hundred bucks a day saved, fifty grand annually, it will take only about three years for the owner of such a truck to recover his extra inital investment if it costs him an extra hundred grand compared to a new otherwise comparable conventional truck.

      We know without any doubt at all that Tesla batteries will last that long, used hard every day, because there are already some Tesla S cars on the road that are used that way, as taxi’s and limo’s.

      I’m thinking the owner will be able to save another ten grand annually, maybe not right away, because it will be possible to hire drivers for less, and because there will be a lot less turnover among drivers who get these new state of the art trucks.

      Truck drivers are a damned independent lot, ready to change employer at the drop of a hat. I never thought of myself as a trucker, because I never drove full time more than a couple of months once in a while, except for a couple of years in highly paid off road construction work.

      I once quit an owner without even one day’s notice after he failed to fix the ac in “my” truck every day for two weeks without actually doing it. I went to another guy right down the street and work for him for a dollar an hour less, considering it was July heading into August, with daily highs well into the nineties and possibly going to a hundred. After a few hours, a truck gets as hot as an OVEN, due to the heat of the engine and transmission soaking thru the floorboards and cowl, and hot air coming back around the cab from the radiator.
      ( The “other guy” would likely have raised my pay a dollar within thirty days if I had stayed that long, lol. I quit him too, because something better came up. )

      If you want to work short term, driving an air conditioned truck is not a bad an option compared to working outside in the mid summer sun in the South.

      Somebody else pointed out that the turnover rate in the industry is unbelievably high. He wasn’t bullshitting .

    3. Hi Islandboy.
      It’s interesting how much of the information that supposedly came from Tesla itself- six wheel drive, leased batteries, etc., was incorrect. I guessed that the price without batteries would be $250,000, so my guess was at least 50% off.
      I also wonder how the price came in so low. My guess is that the standardization that comes from having one platform, rather than a myriad of engine and transmission choices, is part of it. (It would also be the answer to Stanley’s question from a few days ago of why you’d have 1200 horsepower: 1) so you would always have enough, and 2)to avoid the costs associated with developing and stocking different powertrains.)

      So I’ve got a question for HB: how custom are diesel trucks? It sounds like a Tesla Semi has a choice of battery size and colour, which should make manufacturing simpler.

      -Lloyd

      1. It’s interesting how much of the information that supposedly came from Tesla itself- six wheel drive, leased batteries, etc., was incorrect.

        One wonders how it is that information supposedly came from Tesla when the only official information I heard about, was coming in the form of tweets from Musk and he was being fairly coy, teasing but not saying for sure or making statements like, “it’s gonna blow your mind right out of your skull!”. There was a ton of speculation but very little in the way of “official word”. Can you point to any articles or sites that constituted “information that supposedly came from Tesla itself”?

        1. Hi Islandboy.
          I didn’t keep a bibliography, and I was unable to find all the articles I read when I looked today (I looked at 20 or 30 articles). I did find where I got the idea the battery might be leased, and it wasn’t official, so at least some of my impressions can be chalked up to lazy hobby-level scholarship.

          -Lloyd

      2. Hi Lloyd,

        I ‘ve never sold trucks, but I have worked on and around a bunch of them.

        The basic configurations are relatively few, and all the critical dimensions and so forth are pretty much industry standardized and set in stone. So the fact that you can buy a truck with any of half a dozen or more different engines, transmissions, and so forth actually makes them CHEAPER to buy and to repair, because the various manufacturers are always engaged in a price war for the business.

        Competition works wonders in the trucking biz, whereas advertising has little effect on the choices made by truck buyers ( other than pickups ) who choose almost entirely on the basis of purchase cost, reliability, durability, fuel economy, dealer support and so forth.

        So the only part of a new truck that isn’t pretty much the same as the next similar new truck is the cab itself, and manufacturers generally keep a given model of cab in production at least a decade, meaning fenders, doors, and other cab parts interchange at least that long.

        BUT having said all this, if you have money or credit enough, you can trick out a new truck like a model in a fashion show. Every time she comes out and walks that walk, she’s dressed differently, but underneath …. she’s still just the same.

        It’s common for guys buying a truck they intend to drive personally to order many thousands of dollars worth of appearance and comfort options, plus more for performance options such as a bigger engine, jake brake, automatic or semi automatic transmission, chrome wheels, deluxe upholstery, premium sound system, etc etc.

      3. Hi Lloyd,

        Back in my day, Mack had about 10 different models. Three were used as tractors. Short and long nosed conventional’s (R & RW) and a cabover (MH). A dealership can inventory them pretty easy and have them ready to sell. This would be the market I would expect Tesla to target and must be about 60 to 80 percent of class 8 sales. Even in one of these models. There was options of 6 to 8 different wheelbases, a dozen different tire sizes, 3 different wheels types, 3 or 4 suspensions & axles, 5 or 6 fuel tank sizes, maybe 10 different transmissions and 6 to 8 different engines. A basic spec would be different here in California than were you live in Canada. Because of laws, road conditions and weather.

        Mixers, dumps, roll-offs, refuses and cranes all use a different style of chassis. I worked at the factory store in Los Angeles for Mack. We inventoried a basic spec for these chassis too and sold them to other dealers within 500 miles radius. These types of trucks are a lot more specialized than a tractor chassis. For example, the mixers chassis needs a special PTO to power the drum or the power needs to be taken straight off the crank shaft. Anything that regularly goes off road needs a beefed up frame and suspension. A 20,000 front axle is also common and not seen on highway tractors. These types of chassis were more often ordered with a 2 to 3 month waiting period from the factory. The bodies that go on these chassis can be a lot more specialized than the truck. It wasn’t uncommon for a mixer manufacture to buy a couple hundred chassis direct and sell the completed units themselves.

        1. Yair . . .

          Huntington Beach

          That’s interesting, I was unaware there were a dozen sizes ever available.

          Back in the sixties I had ten hundred twenties on the truck and eight twenty five sixteens on the trailers . . . two rows of eight.

          Cheers.

          1. Yair right back at you,

            Pre-wheel back in the stone age of the 60’s. There might have been only one size tire. My career was in the days of mostly radial tires.

            Cheers

            1. Yair . . . .

              So what changed, why did we suddenly decided we needed all those different sizes?

              Obviously speed increased but surely that would entail changes to construction rather than size?

              Anyone ?

              Cheers.

  12. About time for another nuc “event”.

    RUSSIA CONFIRMS ‘EXTREMELY HIGH’ RADIATION LEVELS IN TOXIC CLOUD

    “RUSSIAN authorities have confirmed reports of a spike in radioactivity in the air over the Ural mountains. The Russian Meteorological Service said it recorded the release of ruthenium-106 in the southern Urals in late September and classified it as “extremely high contamination”. France’s nuclear safety agency earlier this month said that it recorded radioactivity in the area between the Volga river and the Ural mountains from a suspected accident involving nuclear fuel or the production of radioactive material.”

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23631533-700-russia-confirms-extremely-high-radiation-levels-in-toxic-cloud/

    1. BTW, Ru-106 comes from recycling of nuclear fuel (or medical isotope targets) and is short-lived (half-life about one year) meaning it must be young fuel that has come out of a reactor recently (and been reprocessed recently).

      1. Hi Doug,

        Given that you are a geologist, you are likely in a much better position to comment than the rest of us on the long term affordability o lithium, rare earth metals, and other scarce one time gifts of nature.

        How about it?

        1. OFM — “Given that you are a geologist, you are likely in a much better position to comment than the rest of us on the long term affordability o lithium, rare earth metals, and other scarce one time gifts of nature.”

          First off, my undergraduate degree was Engineering Physics followed by studying geology and geophysics in Sweden where I met my wife: who put all plans and ambitions askew; so my career wound up being pretty diverse which is another way of saying I’m not an expert in anything. I did a lot of seismic work for oil (all obsolete now of course) and specialized in exploration/development of “unusual” commodities such as uranium, lithium, REEs, and volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits, which I learned about by living in Japan for almost two years. The Japan stint led to an extended stay (almost seven years) in China with “side work” in Vietnam, etc. So, from time-to-time I make comments based on this rather tenuous background.

          Respecting lithium, my experience tells me that most of the stuff is located in Bolivia where huge deposits of easily recoverable reserves occur (in the Salar de Uyuni area). The last time I was involved there the Bolivian government were adamant that the deposits could only be developed as Joint Ventures (JVs) with Bolivians having majority control. International companies mostly hate this but Japan seemed to be the most successful group hoping to tie up the marketing end. Everything might be different now.

          I comment, occasionally, on REEs, but find that people want to shoot me down, and perhaps rightly so. On the one hand there are a lot of armchair-Wikipedia experts floating about, on the other my knowledge is mostly rather dated and related to the evaluation of individual deposits.

          PS: In case you’re wondering, being a mathematical physicist, my wife was mostly able to pursue her rather esoteric research wherever I was working (Japan, China, etc.). Besides, it got her away from the obnoxious and sexist Engineering students in Sweden, who she regularly taught (and who dominated the Engineering field at the time).

          1. Thanks Doug,

            I envy you for your career, until I remember that I have almost for sure spent three or four times as much time enjoying nature and great books and so forth as you have.

            There’s always a good possibility that a pro in any given field knows a lot about some aspects of his field even though his own work doesn’t touch on these aspects. Please don’t let the armchair experts stop you from posting your opinions about anything at all touching on geology.

            People with real expertise in any field can tell the difference easily between a pro and an arm chair phoney.

            Back to last week,

            I know enough math to know that if there are major clusters of really powerful earthquakes occurring at roughly thirty year intervals, the odds are extremely high that these clusters are the result of some unknown or little known cyclical geological process.

            So far I haven’t seen anything even remotely comprehensible to a layman that might explain the nature of such cycles, or why there are supposedly five year cycles involving longer and shorter days.

            It’s easy to understand annual day length cycles, based on the movement of water to and from the polar areas, etc, and slowly growing day length due to angular momentum being shifted to the moon.

            But five year cycles? Thirty plus or minus cycles ???

          2. OFM – Re cycles; I recall discussions (usually in a pub toward closing time), about cyclic commonalities in the timing of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc. while at university. Unexpectedly, perhaps, a 9/56 year cycle can be established which can be linked to Moon-Sun tidal harmonics, which have been hypothesized to activate critical events within 9/56 year patterns. Several lunar-solar cycles align closely at 9.0 and 56.0 solar years, providing (theoretical) support for a strong lunisolar influence; how this cycle functions remains a mystery. One problem that keeps coming up is that when such a cycle is demonstrated for California earthquakes, for example, the same pattern is not necessarily mirrored (is out of phase with) in other seismically active areas. A 9/56 year cycle appears to show up in the timing of other phenomena: stock markets, etc. There you go, my thoughts on the matter – following two glasses of single malt scotch. 🙂

  13. Plunging cost of solar means peak coal looms in India

    “Over the weekend the cost of producing solar in Mexico plunged to a new world record low.

    Italian company Enel Green Power SpA, the renewable-energy unit of Europe’s largest and most successful utility will build a solar park in Mexico contracted to supply electricity at a world record low price of just US$18 per megawatt hour (MWh).

    Earlier this month Chile announced its own record low solar tariff awards at US$22/MWh.

    We are clearly heading into a rapidly decarbonizing global energy system at a rate that has been previously unimaginable.

    The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has been analyzing the rapidly decarbonizing Indian economy for many years now. The last two years has seen a 50% decline in both wind and solar tariffs to a record low US$38/MWh in 2017, more than 20% below the cost of existing domestic thermal power generation tariffs.

    Many commentators have commented on the energy market disruption that has resulted and questioned if these record low renewable energy tariffs in India can be sustained or replicated.

    What has happened in Mexico and Chile, two countries that have also has seen solar costs fall by more than 50% in less than two years gives proof that in the medium these Indian tariffs are not just sustainable, but likely to see even further deflation.

    New modeling by IEEFA predicts that India is also within a decade of peak coal demand for the power sector. This is sooner than anyone has predicted. Under this scenario, Australia’s thermal coal export sector is set to take another hit.

    IEEFA’s report, “Indian electricity sector transformation”, presents a sector model out to 2027 that sees a transforming energy market with a dramatic market share gain by renewable energy. This in turn delivers sustained energy sector deflation.

    By comparison, the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2017 forecasts India’s coal use will continue to expand, doubling by 2040 in its New Policy Scenario.

    With such exceptional demand growth projected, the IEA assumes that even with a 150% increase in domestic Indian coal production, coal imports will reverse direction and rise by a third from current levels by 2040. In light of the continued decline in renewable energy tariffs, IEEFA would challenge IEA’s coal centric view of the world as entirely out of touch with energy developments in India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

    While IEEFA forecasts are non-consensus, it was only in 2016 that the IEA acknowledged China’s use of coal peaked in 2013. This was 17 years earlier than IEA’s 2030 forecast released just two years earlier. In our 700 page global coal demand and supply report prepared in conjunction with the UK’s Carbon Tracker Initiative, IEEFA called this peak in 2014.”

    As usual, lots of other intriguing stuff over at reneweconomy.com.au

    1. Sounds like Tesla is going to have no problem making money on the mega-chargers for the trucks. If they can get anywhere near 2 cents per KWh ($20 per MWh) on the cost and plan to charge 7 cents per KWh, they should do well.

    2. Hi, Islandboy,

      I’m very much interested in an aspect of the transition to wind and solar power that is not discussed to any large extent, compared to other aspects of the transition.

      What I would like to learn more about is this:

      How much commercial and industrial work can be rescheduled, as practical matter, so that it can be performed using solar power, rather than coal power?

      How much of their electrical load can individuals shift away from coal and to solar power NOW, without seriously impacting their life style, or buying expensive batteries? How much will they be able to shift to wind and solar power without additional storage in the future???

      Specific answers are hard to come by, although a lot of people must be giving these questions some thought.

      Consider a desalinization plant for instance. I haven’t yet been able to find out if this sort of plant can be built so that it can be ramped up and down easily, or simply shut down for hours or days at a time without any problem other than the actual loss of output. Pure water is obviously very easily stored, considering the value of it in cities where it’s in short supply, so if a desalinization plant can intermittently on run on solar power, practical solar power storage already exists in the form of stored water.

      So I want to know how what how the cost of desalinization breaks down, in terms of capital expenditures, energy, and other input costs.

      I do know that while such a refrigerator would cost a good bit more, it would be an incredible bargain, in terms of cost of ownership and use, if it’s built super insulated with a ” cold” storage reservoir consisting of say fifty kilo’s of frozen water, and the owner has access to dirt cheap solar power. It’s altogether possible such a refrigerator might run for months on end without needing any coal or gas fired juice from the grid, being programmed to run only when it gets a signal that solar power is available. Water heaters, basically the same deal.

      I’m thinking that advertising signs that need to be lit at night can be built with small built in batteries and programmed so that when solar output is inadequate, they turn off early.

      There are obviously plenty of ways to rely more on solar ( and wind ) and less on coal and gas fired electricity, without much in the way of storage, beyond what we have or can afford using today’s technology.

      I’m hoping somebody will post links to lists or articles about the possibilities.

      1. Yair . . . .
        OFM. This little known outfit has been hand building custom fridges and freezers for at long time.

        I’ve had one of their early model truck fridges for over thirty years with zero issues.
        Friends of hours with a three kilowatt solar system had a fridge and freezer built with eight inches of insulation . . . very unusual to have to run the generator.

        http://www.norcoast.com.au/

        Trust the link will work.

        1. Thanks Scrub,

          Pricey stuff, but obviously built to last a lifetime. Low volume always means high costs.

          I’m thinking a conventional household refrigerator can be super insulated and equipped with part of the freezer section used to store say twenty five liters of ice to keep it cool for as long as three or four days, and sold for only a little more than an ordinary refrigerator, if mass produced and mass marketed.

          I have wrapped my ordinary electric water heater with six inches of fiberglass insulation minimum all the way around, and up to ten inches in spots where there was room for the insulation. This took maybe half an hour and cost around ten bucks.

          I’m saving around twelve to fifteen dollars a month just from adding this insulation to my water heater and switching to all led lights.

          But I can’t figure out a practical way to super insulate an ordinary refrigerator. 🙁

          1. Yair . . . .

            Gotcha OFM.

            “Pricey stuff, but obviously built to last a lifetime.”

            True enough, I always tend to by the best. As an example (I have mentioned before) our washing machine has been going for over forty years and our Sunbeam radiant shade toaster about the same with zero issues.

            In our climate here it is common for the alternative off-grid people to glue polystyrene panels to a refrigerator and use a few cans of spray foam in the gaps . . . makes a huge difference so I’m told.

            https://coolfridge.blogspot.com.au/

            This link is from the net may be of interest.

            Cheers.

            1. Chest freezer with 120 kwh / year and a 5 days emergency storage are standard here – you can buy them for about 350 €.

              Normal fridges have only 1 day.

            2. The trouble with chest freezers is that they have the condenser in the outer wall which lets heat soak through the insulation. When defrosting, I have found the fastest way to unstick the ice from the walls is to run it for a couple of minutes and let the heat soak through.

              NAOM

      2. EVs will be the single biggest item.

        EVs are likely to comprise roughly 25% of electrical consumption. Passenger vehicles are only utilized about 5% of the time, and are likely to carry at least roughly a week’s worth of capacity so most of their charging should pretty easy to schedule during periods of low grid output. They’ll likely also be a resource for sending power to the grid: that’s an enormous resource. If the average US vehicle carried 100kWh, 230M vehicles would have 23 terawattt hours of capacity, which could power the current grid for 50 hours.

      3. There are two EV-based strategies:

        The primary strategy is to automatically time charging based on either direct signals from the utility, or TOU pricing. EVs charge at the lowest price point during the day, consistent with their owner’s programmed needs and priorities. The standard battery size is now about 100 miles, or 3 days of driving for the average light vehicle. That gives quite a bit of leeway for choosing when to charge to minimize costs. That leeway will only grow as batteries grow to 300 miles capacity.

        The secondary strategy is V2G: vehicles sending power to the grid. As that depletes the battery, and uses up battery life, that would probably require the utility to pay a premium for the power, perhaps 25-50 cents per kWh. That, of course, would be very cheap if used only occasionally, or if it were used for the relatively small amounts of power needed for occasional frequency maintenance.

        If a society were to decide to, it could plan to have it’s citizens rely on Extended Range EVs, like the Volt, which have a backup generator. That would make the full EV battery capacity available to the grid, and even allow those generators to power the grid. For very occasional seasonal use (that one 2-week period in January that’s a big planning problem) that would be very cheap.

  14. Nice alliteration, crushed crickets. Doubt it will be big item on Texas menus for awhile though, alliteration or not. 🙂

    FINLAND ROLLS OUT BREAD MADE FROM CRUSHED CRICKETS

    A Finnish bakery is to offer bread made from crushed crickets in a move that is hoped will help tackle world hunger. Fazer Bakery in Finland said the product, available in its stores from Friday, was the first of its kind. Each loaf produced will contain about 70 crickets that have been dried and ground, and then mixed with flour, wheat and other seeds.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42101700

    1. I’ve been eating these Cricket protein bars from EXO. I find them quite yummy.
      https://exoprotein.com/

      Crickets. The closest thing to a perfect protein source this planet has ever seen. Turn these sustainable wonders into powder, add wholesome ingredients like dates and cocoa nibs, and you’ve got some damn delicious fuel. Most of the world has joined the bug-eating revolution—we’re here to convert the rest.

      Insects, for human consumption, make perfect sense to me!

      Obligatory disclaimer: I am not in any way affiliated with this company and neither the EXO brothers nor the Russian Cricket Mafia have compensated me for posting this information. 😉

      Cheers um, I mean chirp!

      1. DAMN Fred,

        I’m surprised a guy as knowledgeable as you obviously are doesn’t know that we’ve been eating insect, spider, and bird poop fortified bread since …… well, since the invention of bread. 😉

        Farmers who grow the grain and the owners of the bakeries that make the bread and the stores that sell it are all such nice modest people that none of them want to claim credit for upping the nutritional value of their product when doing so actually costs them less than nothing. 😉

        1. Sure! According to FDA guidelines for example, manufacturers can’t allow more than 225 bug parts in 225 grams of pasta. Any less than 225 parts in that batch is ok for the FDA.

          My cricket energy bars have quite a bit of pure cricket protein powder deliberately added to the mix. I guess the FDA has had to develop some new guidelines recently! Next item on the menu, cricket pasta 😉

      2. $36 for 12 bars? When you have to be wealthy just to eat foods made from insects, the world has bad economic inequality problems indeed.

        1. Yeah, these are still gourmet niche products. I’m not apologizing for supporting them by eating their product.

          How much does filet mignon or imported cheese cost per lb?

          Buy any quality protein energy bar at your local supermarket and you will find similar prices. $3.00 a bar is certainly not expensive compared to a Starbucks Pumpkin spice latte at $4.50, no protein in it at all. A bag of Classic Lays Potato chips $3.50 with zero nutritional value! Or for that matter most other junk food available on your local grocery store shelves. Are you going to tell us how bad all the cookies and sugary foods are for poor people? Of course not, because you don’t really give a rat’s ass about poor people. You’re just interested in being a troll!

          BTW, If you can produce your protein with less environmental impact than by raising cattle for hamburger especially when compared to raising crickets then let us know. It takes more than 2,400 gallons of water to produce just 1 pound of meat. Big Mac Meal, $5,99. Real good for poor people’s health!

          In the mean time why don’t you just bug off, pun intended!

    2. Nice alliteration, crushed crickets.

      OK. How about, crunchy crushed crickets create crusty croissants… Crikey!

  15. Happy thanksgiving to you and yours. May our almighty God continue to bless you with whatever positive aspects of life you are thankful for on this day.

    1. After reading Greek mythology I felt that those rustic little bible stories were pretty lame. Lot’s of similarities though; vain, jealous and vengeful gods who get so easily offended when the mortal world isn’t paying them enough attention. Kinda pathetic really. But hey, fill your boots. It’s not my time you’re wasting.

      I chatted with one of those christian dudes who thinks the world is about 5000 years old. I asked him how they came up with that and he said ‘well we added up all the ages of everybody in the bible back to Adam and Eve and we got 5000 years’. I’s like ‘wow! how scientific. I didn’t realize you went through so much trouble.’
      Same dude also told me dinosaur bones were put there by god to test us. So basically he believes in a god that’s f*cking with ya. Playing little tricks on ya. So imagine you get to heaven and you’re asked ‘did you believe in dinosaurs?’ and you’re like ‘yeah there was dinosaur bones all over the place’…… boom straight to hell dumb ass. That was god f*ucking with you man!

      1. This is hate speech against members of our faith-based communities.

        1. Then please keep your faith in your church and spare us your pathetic whining. This is not a forum for expressing religious beliefs.

        2. Yeah, seems like when all those loving god fearing Christians aren’t engaged in fucking little boys and girls and telling the rest of us how we should behave they are just a danger to themselves and the rest of society. Here’s a good example of where prayer and giving thanks to gods, by delusional gun loving nuts can lead!

          http://www.newsweek.com/virginia-youth-pastor-murders-family-during-thanksgiving-dinner-722373

          VIRGINIA YOUTH PASTOR MURDERS FAMILY DURING THANKSGIVING DINNER

          “Members of Grace Lutheran Church are deeply saddened by the loss of life last night as a result of three individuals being shot in Chester and this tragedy included members of Grace Lutheran Church. Grace Lutheran Church has experienced many hardships over the years, but this heartbreak has unique challenges. Grace Lutheran Church asks for the prayers from the community as our congregation begins the process of addressing the grief being experienced by everyone involved,” the church statement read.”

          Pray for their souls… Yeah, #SO SAD!

        3. No it’s not. Disagreeing with you is constitutionally protected free speech (if you’re in the USA).

          And you are an idiot.

  16. With all the talk about the new semi and roadster from Tesla, the first teaser on the pickup truck has gone unnoticed. Elon shown a rendering with a standard pick-up being carried by this monster. They said it will be the max size allowed without a special driver’s license.

  17. Indeed with today Thanksgiving Day I thank having this forum where we can read news on oil, energy, science and more. I am wishing you and your family members will receive blessings of abundant food, good health, happy life, many riches and most importantly the everlasting love of God. Also recall blessings of richness come in many forms besides just money, for example I am blessed and rich by having many wonderful friends. Thank you all.

    1. Nothing says Christianity like the European white man who killed the American native and stole this land. Then partied for three days feasting off their stolen riches.

      1. Happy Turkey Day to ya, HB

        Thanksgiving has very little to do with Christianity, compared to how much it has to do with Black Friday sales.

        I notice you haven’t yet had anything to say about what you believe about Bill Clinton and abused women, and your princess running a bimbo squad to cover for him, whereas you called me a pervert for pointing out that any HONEST ( meaning he’s not PC ) biologist will tell you that low life behavior such as displayed by Roy Moore is the RULE, rather than the exception, and crosses all lines, economic, religious, political, and otherwise. ( This is not to say MOST men behave this way, but that a great many from all walks of life do. )

        You make a fool of yourself every time you reply to my comments. Thanks, it makes it fun for me to keep pointing out, with your help, WHY the country is utterly sick and tired of BAU politics, whether Trump/ right wing or Republican Lite HRC machine D politics.

        The younger generation of D leaning voters aren’t about to support somebody like HRC because they aren’t stupid enough to believe the Great Right Wing propaganda defense.

        They know unethical behavior by the smell of it when it stinks like last weeks fish bait, regardless if it’s D behavior or R behavior, and they aren’t cynical enough to pretend otherwise.

        They aren’t willing to cynically blame the cops rather than the perp when their party nominates somebody caught doing something either illegal or so close to illegal it stinks of contempt for the rule of law and respect for the rules all the rest of us are expected to follow…….. The way YOU and countless other BAU D cynics blamed the cops, rather than the perp, in the case of HRC’s monumentally reckless, arrogant, and politically STUPID email system.

        Now maybe I am just a TAD on the cynical side myself, but I have nothing other that contempt for anybody STUPID enough to actually believe that HRC put that email system in place for any reason other than to keep tons and tons of her less than upright and aboveboard business out of the public eye, and the public record.

        Anybody dumb enough to swallow that one is as dumb as the people who believe in Trump.

        And even though the Sanders camp lost the nomination battle, the war for the heart and soul and control of the Democratic Party is still going on, hot and heavy, and every little while, another prominent Democrat abandons the HRC camp and starts standing up for what’s RIGHT. Her running mate for instance just recently called for ending the super delegate rules so that nominating convention delegates will henceforth have to vote as their constituents vote.

        And while there are some other members of this forum who make a habit of joining you in making fun of Christians who aren’t fools, they’re still politically naive enough that they fail to understand that public remark along such lines is a GIFT to the political right wing, in more ways than one.

        Those who vote D are already on board. Those who vote R or lean to voting R are energized to get to the polls and actually vote R by such remarks.

        Incidentally, those same cops are hot on the trail of the Trump gang. 😉

        https://www.yahoo.com/news/flynns-lawyers-split-trump-signaling-possible-cooperation-mueller-222811194.html

        1. Actually, your description is not *quite* complete about biology.

          In any complex social animal, males (and usually females) will fall into several groups by “reproductive strategy”. Roy Moore’s strategy will exist in pretty much any species, but is often not the primary or dominant one, and it’s often high-risk. In every one of these social species there’s a constant struggle between different groups as to how their society will be organized. Ostracizing and destroying those like Roy Moore is *also* a standard part of biology. 🙂

        2. Totally off topic, OFM, but the fact is that the official State Department email system is a flaming trash fire of unusability and insecurity. Clinton’s private email system was actually *better* in every respect, which is probably the reason why she had it. Every Secretary of State since the first Bush Adminstration in 1989 has used private email servers for this reason. Actually fixing the official system was apparently made totally impossible by the bureaucracy (it’s still borked).

          Sometimes you’re not cynical enough… it’s not malice this time, it’s gross incompetence dating back decades.

      1. I can always appreciate Colbert’s opening monologue on Trump, but more often than not forget to watch it at 11:35. Sometimes I’m to busy pounding out a nasty posts for OFM.

        As a kid, my parents took the family to Disneyland every summer from the late 50’s to the mid 60’s. After high school I had friends that worked there and could enter the part for free about any time. Having been behind the scenes of the park changes ones prospective. Haven’t been there in almost 30 years.

        Not sure if your trying to tell me I live in Fantasyland or the Happiest place on Earth. Maybe both.

        1. The predatory fantasyland that started in California has spread round the world. New ways to suck the money and time out of people continue to be found and implemented. The average American spends almost $3000 per year on entertainment, almost six percent of income. That is about equivalent to healthcare and three times more than is spent on education.
          On the flip side of entertainment is the cost of advertising at about $148 billion which is actually paid for by the consumers also. Since most advertising is related to entertainment, the total cost is about 523 billion dollars per year for just the USA.

          To put that in an energy perspective, that money could build over one million acres of PV on the ground or add PV to 26 million homes every year.

          Despite being highly entertained, the US is still very sick, politically and economically divided, and not that happy.

          1. I’m not sure I agree with you on how you get from point A(predatory fantasyland) to point F(US is still very sick and not that happy). On the other hand, I don’t understand why someone would pay over a $100 to stand in line all day. I could also make an argument that a free market economy that spends 6 percent of it’s income on entertainment is a success. Entertainment vs. solar is a false choice. There is no reason both can’t be accomplished.

            There is a lot more wrong with Americans than attending Disneyland

            1. “I’m not sure I agree with you on how you get from point A(predatory fantasyland) to point F(US is still very sick and not that happy). ” That is additional information, entertainment is not an isolated subject, it fits within our lives and is a large part of the culture.
              If we are so well entertained why are we not that happy? If we spend as much money on entertainment as healthcare and are still sick, why not spend that money on finding out why we are ill and making ourselves a healthier society? Going off to fantasyland never cured much of anything, just mental drugs and training children to be zombie consumers.
              There is no free market economy (another discussion).
              The economy is a success but it is not serving the people or making an actual better life for them. It is self-serving of business and advertising but does not serve the people, merely uses their weaknesses to make profit. In fact it generally reduces their view of themselves and others, as well as giving a false view of the world.

              Using entertainment money to put solar PV on your house or insulate it or otherwise improve your actual life and the world is a false choice? You must live in California.
              There is no reason both can’t be accomplished is a false statement for more than half the people.

              I am sure my opinion on the subject is not anywhere near the norm, which is the point. Entertainment (which includes sports) has taken over much of the world and for many people is the point of life. That is a sick situation.
              Once we understand the culture that led to this addiction and elevation of mass entertainment then we may be able to control it. Right now it controls many of us and forms an unrealistic view of life as well as an unbalanced one where much higher priorities are deselected in lieu of entertainment.

            2. BTW, I would not hesitate to postulate that much of our current political situation is related to the commercial entertainment culture that has formed in the US.

            3. GF,
              I agree very much with your assessment of much (most?) of our culture. I’m probably viewing it from a very much lower vantage point on the economic scale than you are, and seeing the same thing you see. This situation probably causes me more anxiety and distress than anything else in my life, because I can’t get my two kids to take me seriously enough to let me explain why I live as I do, and what I think the future might hold for them and their children. And by “live as I do”, I don’t mean under a bridge. I have a very nice, low-cost, enjoyable living. The worst part of their failing to understand, is that they’re teaching my grandchildren to do the same.

              I just remembered something from my past that’s kind of sickeningly funny now. I can remember hearing more that one holy-roller preacher, preach against TV. We all (I was one of them at the time. You’ll never know what that can do to your life and head.) sat and listened, but went on home afterward and turned the TV on. We mostly thought he was out of touch with reality. Well, he sure as fuck was out of touch, but he did stumble upon a bit of truth. A blind hog will occasionally find an acorn.

              Stan

            4. Life low and enjoy life more! It’s the real things in life that count and the real people that count(the ones that don’t look perfect and don’t have a script or make-up artist). Which is why, now that it warmed up a bit, I am heading out to finish some outside work and enjoy the sunshine then go talk to a few friends after that.

    1. Great stuff Fred, thanks for posting. Of course I expect Javier to disagree with all of it.

    2. Yet property values along the coasts are still sky high, shouldn’t the opposite be true in light of this story?

      1. Let me answer your question with another question; how short was the bus that gave you a ride to school when you were a kid?

        1. No self-respecting forum would accept this type of insults for just expressing a perfectly reasonable opinion.

          1. What a snowflake you are Javier lol Maybe you need a safe space, or a trigger warning?
            Understanding why ocean front property values are what they are despite forecasts for sea level rise is not exactly rocket surgery.

            1. I’m expressing an opinion that Krell has an IQ below 70.

              Such type of “ad hominems” in response to opinions ought not to be allowed. Even ignoring you doesn’t clean the forum from your insults.

        2. More hate speech, this time mocking the developmentally disabled. You should be ashamed with yourself for descending to such a level.

    3. I am convinced of the potential size of glacier retreat but I am not convinced of the higher speed scenario, not yet. There are several ways that cliff height collapse feedback could stop.
      We may rue the day of realization that we should have spent a lot more money and time studying the large glacier systems instead of on disposable junk.
      ““It could happen faster or slower, I don’t think we really know yet,” says Jeremy Bassis, a leading ice sheet scientist at the University of Michigan. “But it’s within the realm of possibility, and that’s kind of a scary thing.””

      A sobering discussion of the Pottsdam Institute findings on the climate feedback systems
      Climate Tipping Points from Cascading Feedbacks
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G25dGJ3yUYk&t=15s

    4. Anyone who isn’t alarmed…

      LOL alarmed by science fiction.
      Check what the IPCC says. Check what Jay Zwally from NASA (an Arctic alarmist) says:

      Antarctica is gaining ice mass according to NASA
      https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses
      Oct. 30, 2015
      NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses

      A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.

      The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.
      “The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away,” Zwally said.

      Meanwhile in the real world, Greenland’s Petermann Glacier, once a poster child for global warming,

      (2012) Huge iceberg breaks away from Petermann Glacier fuelling fears over global warming
      http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/huge-iceberg-breaks-away-from-petermann-glacier-fuelling-fears-over-global-warming-7958999.html

      Has grown several kilometers over the past 5 years (see figure). Pictures NASA-MODIS.

      The fears should be quelled then.
      The warming is real but the reasons for alarm are fake.

      1. Antarctic Mass Change from GRACE derived Gravity Observations: Jan 2004 – Jun 2014

        https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4376

        “Data from NASA’s GRACE satellites show that the land ice sheets in both Antarctica (upper chart) and Greenland (lower) have been losing mass since 2002. Both ice sheets have seen an acceleration of ice mass loss since 2009. (Source: GRACE satellite data)”

        https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/

        Undergrad math class. Think about it.

        1. Two different techniques, two opposite results.

          Settled science, no doubt.

        2. Survivalist — Yes indeed, according to NASA, both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have even seen an acceleration of ice mass loss since 2009. Let’s stick with learning about the facts and concerns as expressed by 15,000 odd REAL CLIMATE SCIENTISTS, and ignore the idiot(s). Luckily we now have the X-out option.

          1. According to NASA sea level rise has not accelerated
            https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

            So it is not possible that “both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have even seen an acceleration of ice mass loss since 2009,” as their added contribution to sea level rise cannot have increased.

            So let’s stick with the facts and ignore the state of fear being promoted.

        3. as with any of us, the point of existential realization can come through overexposure to a wide range of worsening climate problems. Declining ocean health, rising extreme weather, how much faster we are warming the world up than during the worst hothouse extinction, can all weigh heavily on the heart and mind of any compassionate, feeling person who takes these subjects seriously enough to actually read the science.

          Wonder who has a aversion to science?

  21. Here’s a great video chock full of eye opening stuff about the geological history of the Great Lakes.

    I strongly recommend it to everybody interested in climate.

    There’s an especially interesting part at about the eighteen minute mark. It appears that some of the earliest arriving people built a very long stone fence to help them hunt caribou on a plateau now submerged. Research is ongoing. There’s underwater video of this apparent fence.

    At about the twenty five minute mark, there’s a discussion starting of evidence that the lake region may actually be geologically unstable and so subject to earth quakes, although none have occurred there within the last couple of hundred years or maybe even the last three or four hundred, so far as we can say for sure.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWeYa0_5bc

    1. Nice fairy tale. She doesn’t know her history and poses a scenario where trucks just all disappear.
      Did aliens do that? Just suck them all up into their spaceships as collectors items? What is wrong with these people?

      I heard enough flawed arguments in the first half to stop listening. The most hilarious one was the 55,000 pound battery to move a loaded semi 600 miles.
      “Batteries don’t scale up..” “There have been no battery break through for the last 200 years.”

      Is she a Koch brother hireling or just a priestess in the Cult of Doom?

      1. I heard enough flawed arguments in the first half to stop listening.

        I think I managed a full ten minutes and I regret listening for even that long…

        electricdummie is just another stupid troll!

  24. Hopefully somebody here knows more about this new technology.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/1414-plans-two-gigawatt-hour-silicon-storage-plants-s-75504/

    If it turns out to be truly scale able, it may be an honest to Jesus game changer, because the heat available to be scavenged as electricity is generated can be used for space heating and industrial purposes as indicated in the article.

    There’s a HUGE potential for charging up this sort of system using wind power, which will likely always be cheaper and more plentiful in the winter than solar power where most of us live…… well to the north of the equator.

    All that heat can be put to good use an much as six months out of the year in office buildings, hospitals, etc, and depending on the minimum practical size of these systems, maybe even in relatively small apartment buildings.

    I’m making a list of such emerging technologies and appreciate any mention of other new ones that are just about ready for commercialization…. or at least ATTEMPTED commmercialization, lol.

    Thanks in advance.

    1. NEW BATTERIES WITH BETTER PERFORMANCE, IMPROVED SAFETY

      “Currently the most important technology for batteries is the lithium-ion battery technology, but the technology is expensive and contains a flammable liquid. To satisfy the growing demand from emerging markets, researchers have devised a new battery prototype: known as “all-solid-state,” this battery has the potential to store more energy while maintaining high safety and reliability levels.”

      https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171123094325.htm

      1. Batteries need to get down below $100 per kWh. The Tesla Powerwall is way too expensive for what you get and it does not even have an inverter.

    2. Low lying Florida is a gamble during the next 30 years. We know enough to be concerned but not enough to have a real idea of what will happen next, how fast it will happen or when it will happen.

      1. We know enough to be concerned but not enough to have a real idea of what will happen next, how fast it will happen or when it will happen.

        Yeah, and that’s just the physics part. What that article opened my eyes to was how the social aspects such as economic inequality, gentrification and racism are going to be muddying those rising sea waters. I know Florida is fucked, I have front row seats to show.

        1. I heard or read something interesting recently to the effect that Cuban immigrants, who mostly vote Republican, have swung Florida vote recently, and therefore also may have heavily influenced a couple of presidential elections, but the influx of Puerto Ricans after Maria, who mostly vote Democrat, may do the opposite.

        2. Fred, I have seen several large neighborhoods gentrified and businessfied. They tear down the poor part of town (usually black but not necessarily) then put in modern buildings, businesses and high end apartments. There was no flood or any other calamity involved. When it’s government backed there is not much one can do. It’s who owns the government that counts.
          No, I do not expect the system to change. You probably have seen this too.

          1. No, I do not expect the system to change. You probably have seen this too.

            Oh yeah! When I was much younger I did a lot of work renovating run down old buildings and making them into artist’s lofts in the East Village and Brooklyn. Both of those places became gentrified at later dates driving out the starving artists…

      1. Yep, I’m a fan also.
        Seems she was ahead of the intellectual curve.
        A Wing Pawn Nightmare.

    2. And on the subject of Arctic amplification Climate Reanalyzer is showing a plus 5 degree Arctic anomaly for ll of next week and 7 towards the end (it often over estimates this sort of warming but seems to have been doing a bit better recently). The freezing degree days this year have been second lowest only to 2016, but might be about to do some catching up. I can’t get the image small enough to display in jpeg but here is the link: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom

  30. Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of sea water as it warms. The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed by satellites.

    The second graph, derived from coastal tide gauge data, shows how much sea level changed from about 1870 to 2000.

    Data shown are latest available, with time allowed for processing.

    https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

    2. What is all the concern? Current sea level rise is about 1/3 meter per century. Good to produce a baseline though, for future changes.

  31. What is sea level up to lately?

    “Some look at these data in an attempt to find something, anything, they can cherry-pick to claim that either global warming’s effect on sea level isn’t happening, or that we should look at it as “no problem.” A classic example happened nearly 10 years ago, when Danish climate “skeptic” Bjorn Lomborg wrote this in the U.K. newspaper The Guardian:

    “Over the past two years, sea levels have not increased at all — actually, they show a slight drop. Should we not be told that this is much better than expected?”

    Let me answer that question: No, Bjorn, we should not be told a lie.

    I say that because sea level is so “noisy” (meaning, it wiggles around so much) that even with a steady trend, a 2-year period can easily show no rise because the noise happens to be going down enough to cancel the trend continuing up. No, Bjorn, this was not “much better than expected” — episodes like this are expected from time to time on a regular basis. Roll the dice often enough, sooner or later you’re gonna get snake-eyes.

    Poor Bjorn. He was roundly (and rightly) ridiculed for his comment, perhaps most pointedly years later in a graphic from Greg Laden’s blog when Lomborg spouted more nonsense about sea level:”

    “You’d think that would be the end of it. Who would be dumb enough to try the same trick?

    Anthony Watts, that’s who. The identical strategy was “Bjorn-again” when Watts gave us a wonderful post revealing what he calls a “pause” — at least as far as global warming is concerned. He declares a “pause” in sea level rise by doing exactly the same thing Bjorn Lomborg did.”

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/10/24/what-is-sea-level-up-to-lately/

    1. Should we not be told that this is much better than expected?

      Yes because sea level rise shows no acceleration, and without acceleration we should get ~ 30 cm by 2100. Not something we should be overly concerned with. Not much damage caused by the last 30 cm raise. We can easily adapt to that.

    2. “Denying acceleration of sea level rise also gives them something to criticize, namely projections of what future sea level rise might actually bring. By disparaging that, they cast doubt on the competence of climate change researchers in general, which of course serves their purpose to obstruct doing anything about it. Doubt is their product.

      There are some important lessons to be learned.

      -Some deniers will never concede anything, even the obvious. No matter how many times they’re shown wrong, they’ll keep repeating the same nonsense endlessly. That’s why some of their “arguments” are better described as “zombie arguments” — even if you kill them, they just come back from the dead.
      -Deniers tend to use the “change the subject” tactic — a lot. When the topic under discussion gets too hot for them, rather than admit any mistake they just switch to another.
      -Focusing on a single issue, until it’s dealt with anywhere near completion, is anathema to deniers. That’s why they tend to argue about as many issues at the same time as they can get away with. Sometimes it becomes ridiculous, raising so many criticisms that it would require massive amounts of time just to discuss them all — it’s a rhetorical technique called the “Gish gallop.”
      -One of the most effective ways to counter denier propaganda is to force them to stay on topic. When they can’t change the subject to avoid it, they either devolve into ludicrous claims, or just go silent.”

      https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/27/understanding-sea-level-rise/

  32. Now this is more great economic news with the increase in Black Friday weekend shoppers this year compared to some of the past few years where people weren’t spending at ideal levels. So who here made some purchases on this Black Friday or yesterday for Thanksgiving? What kinds of good deals did you get?

    US online sales surge, shoppers throng stores on Thanksgiving evening

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/23/us-online-sales-surge-shoppers-throng-stores-on-thanksgiving-evening.html

    U.S. shoppers had splurged more than $1.52 billion online by Thanksgiving evening, and more bargain hunters turned up at stores this year after two weak holiday seasons as retailers opened their doors early on the eve of Black Friday.

    At the start of the holiday season consumer spending rose 16.8 percent year-over-year until 5 p.m. ET (2200 GMT) on Thursday, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracked 80 percent of online transactions at the top 100 U.S. retailers.

    Surging online sales and a shift away from store shopping have thinned the crowds typically seen at stores on Thanksgiving evening and the day after, Black Friday, for the past two years.

    But a strong labor market, rising home prices and stock markets at record highs have improved shopper appetite this year.

    Crowds at stores in many locations around the country were reported to be strong, according to analysts and retail consultants monitoring shopper traffic across the U.S.

    “The turnout is clearly better than the last couple of years,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners. “The parking lots are full and the outlet malls are busy.”

    The retail consultancy has 20 members studying customer traffic in different parts of the country.

    1. I got the sweet safe from Atwoods. 😀 It’s roomier than the one I have now, but I’m keeping both so I can grow my collection. Now I just have to back sometime, get some stocking stuffers for the fam.

      1. I prefer the Stack-On 14 Gun Security Cabinet. I know it’s kinda low end, but I just gotta keep the youngsters away from the guns. I have no real B&E/theft concerns.

      2. Johnny, I would feel a lot safer if you had a mental health evaluation, drug tested, criminal check and had to buy liability insurance.

  34. On this date:
    1859 — Evolutionary theorist Charles Darwin’s Origin of the Species is published.

    And the planet has not been the same for delusional rapacious apes.

    1. It’s a good book, if only for some of the incredibly long but still understandable sentences, but I’d recommend “Almost Like a Whale” by Steve Jones, which is a chapter by chapter rewrite including all modern understanding. Darwin got a huge amount spot on, even though often having little to go on, but not everything (creationists often seem to think Darwinism started and ended with him, and nothing has changed in the the theory since, which must say something – he was a genius? they are willful idiots? both?).

      1. As far as I know, natural selection is considered fact at this point and has never been disproven. The theory of evolution through natural selection is probably one of our strongest and most well supported theories. It has been constantly demonstrated in real time as bacteria and insects adapt to our poisons.

        The fact that religions don’t fit with the theory of evolution or natural selection tells more about religion than it does about science.

        1. “The fact that religions don’t fit with the theory of evolution or natural selection tells more about religion than it does about science.”

          Actually this is a problem only for Protestants and Reformists that hold the Bible as the source for religious authority. Catholics and some Protestants have absolutely no problem with the Big Bang and natural evolution.

          The official position of the Catholic Church was established by the papal encyclical Humani generis of Pope Pius XII in 1950, a letter on Catholic doctrine dictating that evolution and Catholic faith are not at odds. Catholics view the Genesis as a tale explaining the origin of humankind according to knowledge at the time it was written, not as reveled truth. In all Catholic countries evolution is taught without problem even in religious educative institutions. Pierre Teilhard de Chardin was a French Jesuit priest who trained and became famous as a paleontologist and geologist and took part in the discovery of Peking Man. He is a clear example that you could belong to the structure of the Catholic Church while working and publishing in evolution even during the first half of the 20th Century.

          The problem that US has with Christian fundamentalism is seen with amazement by Christian Europe, and it probably arises from the founding of American colonies by religious fundamentalists expelled from Europe. In your president words those were bad genes, although he probably thinks the opposite.

    1. Whatever gives you and your other personalities your jollies. Keep advertising the man, he feeds on it.

      1. Keep advertising the man, he feeds on it?????

        The links I posted are more of your own, the SAME, just different episodes, lol.

        I’m hoping he will have a stroke feeding on this sort of stuff. He might, luckier things have happened before.

        If you know of any thing I can see without actually watching tv directly that is more damaging to Trump in particular, and more entertaining, and the R establishment in general, PLEASE do post links to it. Anything I can see on the net is welcome, and anything in print that’s first class comedy or sarcasm likewise.

        Now whether YOU, GF, want to pretend otherwise, or not, I’m not a partisan. I’m out to be known, once I pull all my ” other personalities” together in one place, as a person who sees thru partisan bullshit and deals with facts. Right now, I’m still doing this partly for entertainment, but mostly as research and hands on practice , but I’m turning pro in the not so distant future.

        Why don’t YOU tell us what you think of Roy Moore, AND Bill Clinton, in respect to abusing women?

        I maintain that if you answer this question, your answer will make it clear to anybody who reads your answer that you ARE a partisan, and thus willing to attack one party for it’s moral and ethical shortcomings, but not the other.

        HB likes to pretend all the scumbags are republicans and or conservatives. There’s a a huge overlap, but these two camps are not necessarily one and the same people.

        A significant percentage of hard core Christians in Alabama will vote against Moore.

        Some will stay home. Most of them SERIOUSLY believe abortion is murder, and THAT’S a matter of opinion and personal belief, and IF you believe people have a right to their own opinions, then you have to respect them for that belief.

        A hell of a lot of them WILL vote for Moore,on the basis of this single issue, because they believe he is the lesser of two evils .

        Maybe you would be willing to go so far as to say you recognize that HRC is the lesser of two evils, compared to Trump? Maybe you would be willing to go so far as to admit that by failing to say so, you intend to keep the foot soldiers in line, without pointing out anything that might lead them to thinking for themselves????

        HB’s a little old porch dog, lol. He barks, but only from the safety of mommies lap, up on the porch. I’m thinking you’re about the same sort of doggie, politically, although I will be among the first to say that you know your stuff when it comes to the environment.

        Now old HB, he seems to know a lot about trucks, I’ll give him that, but taken all around I think maybe I have forgotten more about trucks than he ever learned selling them, lol.

        1. As I have said before, abusing minors is worse than abusing adults. Both are bad, one is worse than the other in my view. Perhaps it’s different south of the Mason Dixon?

          1. Dennis,
            I’ll have to post a bit of defense for Bama on that issue. Having never been incarcerated myself, but being told directly from someone who has, it’s not a good thing to be locked up down here as a child-molester. Something about increased chances of getting your asshole ripped open by a mop-handle, maybe skull cracked by same. LOL, good enough. I’m still redneck enough to think that punishment might be a part of rehabilitation.
            Stan

            p.s. I do think you might have been only jabbing at OFM a bit. Maybe?

            1. Hi Stan

              Yes he seems to equate Bill Clinton and Moore.

              I would call that a false equivalence.

        2. Have you ever considered that other people are not interested in your personal political soap opera?

          1. The great thing about our country is, we are allowed to all have different beliefs, opinions, and interests. You should respect that.

            1. What, I am not allowed to talk? I should just shut up when someone is personally harassing me with their drivel? You are a hypocrite. Now respect that opinion and belief.

            2. Old Farmer Mac is one the few that gets it, how the majority of Americans understand the world around them. So I do usually respect his opinions without disagreeing.

            3. How do you know what the majority of Americans think? That majority would be about 2.5% of the world’s population – why should the rest care one way or the other? Why do you think OFM is one of the few who gets it – maybe all the other’s choose to remain silent as it’s too depressing to them? Why do you choose to agree or disagree with someone based on your perception of their general character rather than the actual points they make in a particular comment?

            4. AMERICA’S HISTORY OF RELIGIOUS TOLERANCE, THE IDEA THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS ALWAYS BEEN A BASTION OF RELIGIOUS FREEDOM IS REASSURING — AND UTTERLY AT ODDS WITH THE HISTORICAL RECORD

              “In newly independent America, there was a crazy quilt of state laws regarding religion. In Massachusetts, only Christians were allowed to hold public office, and Catholics were allowed to do so only after renouncing papal authority. In 1777, New York State’s constitution banned Catholics from public office (and would do so until 1806). In Maryland, Catholics had full civil rights, but Jews did not. Delaware required an oath affirming belief in the Trinity. Several states, including Massachusetts and South Carolina, had official, state-supported churches.

              Even as late as 1960, Catholic presidential candidate John F. Kennedy felt compelled to make a major speech declaring that his loyalty was to America, not the pope. (And as recently as the 2008 Republican primary campaign, Mormon candidate Mitt Romney felt compelled to address the suspicions still directed toward the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.) Of course, America’s anti-Semitism was practiced institutionally as well as socially for decades. With the great threat of “godless” Communism looming in the 1950s, the country’s fear of atheism also reached new heights.”

              BTW An overwhelming 87% of black Americans say black people face a lot of discrimination in the US.

              https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/americas-true-history-of-religious-tolerance-61312684/

        3. “HB likes to pretend all the scumbags are republicans and or conservatives. ”

          I’m not pretending. Here is a good example why Republican and or Conservatives are scumbags. Universal health care was called ClintonCare 24 years before Sanders had a wet dream about the White House. Read the link.

          “The GOP Crusade Against Obamacare’s Mandate Says A Lot About How The Party Changed”

          “They were the ones who first put the idea on the agenda”

          “Senate Republicans are set to vote next week on tax legislation that would eliminate the financial penalty for people who don’t get health insurance, often called the “individual mandate.” And plenty of Republicans seem positively giddy about the prospect. “Getting rid of Obamacare’s tax on people who choose not to buy a plan or can’t afford the premiums is the right thing to do,” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said.

          Republicans and their supporters have been bashing the individual mandate so loudly and so vociferously that it’s easy to forget this outrage is a relatively recent phenomenon. Not so long ago, it was easy to find GOP officials and conservative intellectuals who supported the mandate, and not simply because they thought it was the smart thing to do. They also thought it was the right thing to do. In fact, they were the ones who first put the idea on the political agenda.

          The story of how Republicans first came to this conclusion and then abandoned it is a pretty good parable for how the GOP has changed in the last 30 years. It also says a lot about the people who will suffer as their efforts to unwind the Affordable Care Act go forward.

          Republicans ultimately succeeded in blocking Clintoncare, and when they did interest in GOP universal coverage plans vanished almost as quickly as they’d appeared.”

          https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/individual-mandate-gop_us_5a15b4f6e4b03dec8249bc83?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

          **********

          Now regarding Bill Clinton’s sex life. It’s none of your fucking business OldMacDonald and I don’t want to hear about yours either. I’m not here to judge them like you and your Christian friends. Maybe Hillary after 20 years of marriage was just tired of Bill climbing on top and sticking it to her. Maybe they had an open marriage. And just maybe their relationship is about more than sex. Something I don’t think you would understand or could grasp. And Monica, she was a consenting adult. Just maybe she was sticking her big tits in his face to get a job. It wouldn’t be the first time it ever happened.

          And that old Republican hack Ken Star spent years investigating Vince Foster, Cattle gate and whatever else FoxNews could drum up. And you know the only thing he found was a Blow Job and spotted dress from someone who wanted to climb the latter to success and ratted out by her friend Linda Tripp.

          And here is one last maybe for you. Maybe if you had a sex life other than with yourself. You wouldn’t be so nosy regarding others.

          Just Maybe

  36. One sentence, just one sentence, tells us all we need to know about the intellectual ability of Donald Trump.
    Thanks to Jeffrey Brown for sending me this link.

    The case for reading Trump

    Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, okay, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, okay, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you’re a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right — who would have thought?), but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us. [President Trump]

    1. One sentence, just one sentence, tells us all we need to know about the intellectual ability of Donald Trump.

      It also tells us three other things:

      1) The people who voted for him are even stupider than he is! Especially the corrupt immoral right wing Christian evangelicals.

      2) The current crop of pseudo conservatives in the GOP are among the most corrupt group of SOBs to ever have held political power in the US!

      3) We the people, are royally fucked and the US as a global leader, is pretty much toast as far as the rest of the world is concerned.

      So, get out your popcorn and enjoy the rest of the holiday season while watching these clowns destroy what remains of our democratic institutions and our status as respected leaders on the global stage.

      As for myself, I have now taken to imbibing as much Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as I can, in front of a golden statue of my new deity, Robert Mueller, in a daily sacrificial ritual asking him to deliver us from evil!
      .

      1. The new reality is unreality. The new truth is lies. The new smart is dumb. The new science is religion. The new desire is robo fantasy. The new love is just not caring.
        All of that is running parallel with the leftovers from the days of enlightenment. But hold on folks we already had the apocalypse, now will come the real enlightenment and you will probably not like it, no matter what the spin. Are you prepared for a ride on Mr. Dark’s merry-go-round?

        1. “The difference between reality and unreality is that reality has so little to recommend it.” ―Allan Sherman

      2. If you are observing this from the Left, Trump and HRC are not aberrations, but symptoms of a corrupt and collapsing system, ossifying and perverted expressions of a late enlightenment political experiment, now like a setting Sun.

        (Think Caligula on some bad acid)

    2. The real question in my mind, concerning Trump, is whether he’s merely a modern day version of an old time strong man, or warlord, who has gained control of a large swath of territory, and intends to plunder it to the extent possible, before inevitably losing control of it……….. OR

      Whether he’s a real twenty four carat nutcase, competent it some respects, but without a clue in terms of the big picture. He’s competent, as the qoute points out, in that he can play his political base like a violin. OTHERWISE…….., Well,

      He’s obviously a top of the pyramid predator of the business world, one of the world’s best when it comes to making deals that are winners for him and losers for his partners/ victims.

      Beyond these left handed compliments, I can’t think of anything nice to say about him, lol.

      A lot of people believe he’s just a pure and simple nut case. I’m not quite ready to go that far,being more of the opinion that he’s a modern version of old time strong men or warlords. The biggest difference these days is that modern men of this type are compelled to use different strategies and weapons.

      It’s not so easy to dispatch a few soldiers to simply murder an enemy these days as it was in times gone by. This means for instance Trump has been forced so far at least to go after Mueller by attacking him politically and personally,mainly by siccing his political allies on him.

      Actually firing Mueller would be the political equivalent of murder.

      I won’t be surprised if Trump goes that far, depending on how close the fires of the investigation get to his own feet. 😉

      If he does fire Mueller sometime between now and the mid terms, I’m ready to bet that the D’s will do even better than even the most ardent D’s are dreaming of, and win back the house and senate as well, with even larger majorities.

      The D’s proved that they could stick together and prevent Bill’s SUCCESSFUL impeachment, but there are some R’s who will break ranks and vote with the D’s for impeaching Trump. That might not be the case, except Trump has gone out of his way to attack so many members of his own party, like a dumb aggressive dog biting the hand that feeds it.

  37. TROPICS MAY NOW EMIT MORE CARBON DIOXIDE THAN THEY ABSORB — AND IT’S NOT A SIGH OF RELIEF.

    “Forests are sometimes called the “lungs of the planet.” That’s because trees and other plants take in carbon dioxide gas and release oxygen. Past analyses had estimated that forests soak up more carbon dioxide than they release. Because carbon dioxide is a climate-warming greenhouse gas, that trend was encouraging. But new data suggest the trend no longer holds.”

    https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/tropics-may-now-emit-more-carbon-dioxide-they-absorb

    1. Meanwhile,

      SOPHIA THE ROBOT WANTS A BABY AND SAYS FAMILY IS ‘REALLY IMPORTANT’

      “She’s the first robot in the world to become a citizen of a country and now Sophia says she wants a baby. A month after she made history in Saudi Arabia the humanoid robot has said family is “a really important thing.”. When Sophia was given citizenship in Saudi Arabia many were quick to point out she has more rights than women in the country. She addressed the audience in English without the customary headscarf and abaya, a traditional cloak which Saudi women are obliged to wear in public.”

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/42122742/sophia-the-robot-wants-a-baby-and-says-family-is-really-important

  39. This sounds a bit like sanitary engineering as in garbage collection:

    I called an old school friend and asked what was he doing.

    He replied that he was working on “Aqua-thermal treatment of ceramics, glass, aluminum, and steel, all under a constrained environment.”

    I was impressed.

    On further inquiring, I learned that he was washing dishes with hot water — under his wife’s supervision.

  40. As we wind the clock backwards to an earlier time, the changes in the oceans are helping jellyfish and starfish to proliferate. One cannot comprehend what this means without a book on the subject.
    Here is a book review that might make your skin crawl, literally.

    Thousands of jellyfish had been sucked into the cooling system of the ship’s nuclear power plant, forcing the closure of full onboard capabilities. Newspapers ran the headline “Jellyfish Take on US Warship.” Local fire crews were placed on standby, and the citizens of Brisbane held their collective breaths as the battle between the navy and the jellyfish raged. In the end, they proved too formidable

    It’s now known that the brush of a single tentacle is enough to induce “Irukandji syndrome.” It sets in twenty to thirty minutes after a sting so minor it leaves no mark, and is often not even felt. Pain is initially focused in the lower back. Soon the entire lumbar region is gripped by debilitating cramps and pounding pain—as if someone is taking a baseball bat to your kidneys. Then comes the nausea and vomiting, which continues every minute or so for around twelve hours. Shooting spasms grip the arms and legs, blood pressure escalates, breathing becomes difficult, and the skin begins to creep, as if worms are burrowing through it. Victims are often gripped with a sense of “impending doom” and in their despair beg their doctors to put them out of their misery.

    http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2013/09/26/jellyfish-theyre-taking-over/?pagination=false

    1. Victims are often gripped with a sense of “impending doom” and in their despair beg their doctors to put them out of their misery.

      Well, that impending sense of doom might actually be at least somewhat warranted!

      To be fair, some people die from wasp and bee stings as well. But most people don’t. While I’ve never been stung by a box jellyfish, I have had many very painful encounters with Portuguese Man of War, some people are known to have had fatal encounters with them as well.

      https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/running-ponies/the-smallest-and-deadliest-kingslayer-in-the-world/
      The Smallest and Deadliest Kingslayer in the World

      While rarely fatal, Irukandji syndrome sends most of its victims to hospital. It takes 5-10 minutes after the sting for symptoms to set in, but when they do, they’re excruciating. A typical set of symptoms includes severe lower back pain, vomiting and muscle cramps, and if particularly serious, could result in toxic heart failure, fluid on the lungs or a brain haemorrhage. Around 30% of cases result in some form of heart failure, and one in five victims suffer life-threatening complications and end up on life support.

      In any case it is a good to know that as we continue to acidify and degrade marine environments, they are becoming more hospitable to all kinds of Cnidarians… I do find the Man of War to be quite beautiful.
      .

        1. I don’t want to be stung by wasps or scorpions either, even though they probably won’t kill me…

          1. Yair . . .

            They’re nasty little buggers.

            You very quickly learn to wear a long sleeved shirt and have the vinegar handy when cast netting for bait . . . I have been touched up with tentacles on the anchor rope a time or two as well.

            1. Hi Scrub,

              I have never yet been stung by a jelly of any kind, since I seldom to to the beach and only occasionally get out on salt water fishing.

              But we have a new sort of wasp here, a really nasty sob , yellow and black and HUGE, and while they aren’t especially aggressive, the sting is BAD.

              Now here’s the problem with these sob’s. They fly at night sometimes. If there’s a direct line of sight from a light in your house to a nest, which is often built high up in a hollow tree and can be almost impossible to locate, if there are lots of trees around, they will come to the light in large numbers.

              And after they bang themselves off the wall or screens or glass a while, they are apt to sting quicker than usual. Eventually one or two will find a way inside, and then once exhausted, wind up at a spot where you will put your backside down, or in your bed, with very painful consequences. Fatal consequences, maybe in the case of an infant or small child or anybody allergic to bee stings.

              Since locating the nest is almost out of the question, and it may be on a neighbors property anyway………. this is how I have dealt with them.

              I got a shallow tub, filled it near the top with water, and poured a generous measure of cooking oil on the water. Put a piece of plywood painted white over the tub, one side angled down near the water. Bright light under the plywood, over the water.

              When they bounce off the plywood they wind up in the water, and they do NOT climb out due to the oil and steep sides of the tub.I caught up somewhere in the neighborhood of a thousand of them this way, before they stopped arriving.

              I’m not sure if I got them all, or if the arrival of frosty weather finished them off.

            3. Yep, you just killed off a whole nest of predators that keep down your problem insects. Smart. 🙁

              “Put simply, without wasps we would be overrun with insect pests, and we would have no Fig Newtons.”
              “Hornets and paper wasps prey on other insects, and help keep pest insect populations under control. Paper wasps carry caterpillars and leaf beetle larvae back to their nests to feed their growing young. Hornets provision their nests with all manner of live insects to sate the appetites of their developing larvae. It takes a lot of bugs to feed a hungry brood. Both hornets and paper wasps provide vital pest control services.

              Researchers at the University of Florence recently discovered another important role of both hornets and paper wasps – they carry yeast cells in their guts! Yeast is used to make bread, beer, and wine, but we know very little about how yeast lives in the wild. The University of Florence researchers found that wasps and hornets feed on late season grapes, which are rich in wild yeast. The yeast survives the winter in the stomachs of hibernating queen wasps, and is passed on to their offspring when the mother wasps regurgitate food for their young. The new generation of wasps carries the yeast back to the next season’s grapes. So raise your glass to the wasps and hornets!”

              https://www.thoughtco.com/what-good-are-wasps-1968081

            4. Every insect is important, even mosquitoes. The only problem is with invasive species that perturb the equilibrium.

              By the way, mosquito larvae are also important predators of other insects.

            5. Aedes aegypti, the mosquitoes that carry Zika virus, dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever, are not native to the Western Hemisphere.
              Introduced from Africa.

            6. Hi GF,

              I suppose it comes as a surprise to you that an ag guy knows a few things about biology, lol.

              My Dad is very old and very frail, and allergic to bee stings. If I’m not right on the spot with the epi, he’s a goner, if he gets stung, because he’s too old and frail to self administer it these days.

              So I do away with any wasps nesting within a hundred feet or so of the house.

              I don’t even know a farmer who goes out of his way to destroy wasp colonies, although a lot of us get rid of them if they are nesting in the immediate locality of places we work on a regular basis.

              Wasps in general and paper wasps of the sort that often nest in and around farm buildings attack sometimes just because you are creating a disturbance near their nest. So farmers generally consider the loss of a few nests right in and around our homes and equipment sheds and so forth a small price to pay, considering the pain and aggravation of getting stung.

              I average getting stung maybe twelve to fifteen times a year, myself. I got nailed three times a few weeks back when I opened the door of an old truck box I use as a storage shed. No doubt the wasps relatively simple little CPU’s interpreted the squealing hinges and vibrations transmitted to their nest as an attack and thus justification for engaging in defensive war.

              The only night flying stinging wasp in this area is the European hornet…… an invasive species. That’s the kind I had problems with.

              Here’s a good reasonably short description.

              It’s copied from this link.

              https://content.ces.ncsu.edu/non-honeybee-stinging-insects-in-north-carolina

              “European Hornet

              The first reported specimen of Vespa crabro was reported around 1840 in the state of New York. Since that time, it has worked its way south along the east coast and has spread throughout the eastern United states. Other names for V. crabro include the brown hornet or the giant hornet. The European hornet is often mistakenly called the Japanese hornet, but in fact the Japanese hornet is not found in the United States but rather is restricted to the mountains of Japan and Asia. The European hornet is the largest true hornet found in the United States.

              Description

              Adults resemble yellow jackets, but are much larger (about 11⁄2 in.) and are brownish red with a dull yellow abdomen. Queens, which may be seen in the spring, have more red than brown, and are larger than the workers. Nests are typically built in hollow trees, but they are often found in barns, sheds, attics, and wall voids of houses. They are usually not noticed until the colony has reached a large size. This can present a problem to the human inhabitants due to the defensive nature of V. crabro. Unlike its cousin, the bald-faced hornet, European hornets rarely build nests that are free hanging or in unprotected areas. Frequently, the nest is built at the cavity opening, rather than deep within. The outside of the exposed nest will be covered with coarse, thick, tan, paper-like material fashioned from decayed wood fibers. The hornet mashes it up with its mandibles and mixes it with saliva to form a pulp that they can shape into a layer for the nest. Nests built in walls may emit a noticeable unpleasant aroma.

              Biology

              In the spring, each individual queen emerges from hibernation and begins nest building. She builds the nest, forages for food to feed to the larvae, and defends the nest all on her own. Once a queen has produced enough workers to take over these duties, she remains inside the nest producing more offspring. The workers (all of which are females) forage for food and feed the young, as well as expand and defend the nest. Their diet consists mainly of large insects such grasshoppers, flies, and even yellow jackets. They can also exploit a honey bee hive for dead or weaker bees. They continue to enlarge the nest until fall when there may be 300-500 (occasionally up to 1,000) workers. European hornets have a long seasonal cycle. Reproductives (males and females) are produced well into the fall. These reproductives mate and the females will serve as the next generation of queens the following spring. As winter approaches, the workers die off and the future queens abandon the nest and seek shelter in protected areas such as under loose bark, in rotting stumps, and other similar hollows. Every year, the queens select new sites to build new nest and do not reuse abandoned nests. In the fall and winter, these nests can sometimes be viewed from far away in trees or in sheds. It is important to note that the colonies die over the winter and the nests can be removed afterwards.

              Behavior

              Unlike most other stinging insects, European hornets also fly at night. They can be attracted to lighted windows in homes and may repeatedly fly into the glass with quite a lot of force. This may cause some people to falsely conclude that they hornets are trying to break the glass to enter their home. The hornets are also attracted to porch lights, so the hornets may sometimes be a nuisance for certain outdoor activities. Hornet workers are sometimes noticed chewing bark from thin-barked trees or collecting oozing sap of trees.”

              If you accidentally sit on one of these little sumbitches after it exhausts itself buzzing around a light, you will remember doing so for YEARS.

            7. @Javier
              I may be wrong, not being a biologist, but I thought that mosquito larvae were water dwelling filter feeders and were food for fish rather than insect eaters. We get the regular Dengue patrols checking for stagnant water so this puzzles me. Can you enlighten me, please?

              NAOM (Mosquito feeder)

            8. Yes OFM, you can copy info from the net. congratulations.
              But I thought you were a bright bulb among us, you are always telling us how well read you are.
              Amazing how “smart” people kill off helpful insects because it’s easier and more satisfying. Instead of killing you could use a yellow outside porch light and shade your windows at night.
              So much for the bright bulb.

            9. NAOM, some mosquito larvae prey on other larvae.

              “Mosquitoes of the genus Toxorhynchites never drink blood.[49] This genus includes the largest extant mosquitoes, the larvae of which prey on the larvae of other mosquitoes.”

            10. @Javier
              Ah, thank you, that cleared that up. I am keen on keeping the place free of stagnant water that may have larvae due to the Dengue risk.

              NAOM

            11. Yair. . . .

              Gotcha OFM. Nasty bastard. Is that a native American insect moving into different territory or an introduced species?

            12. Hi Scrub,
              See my nine twenty seven pm reply to GF about my experience with this particular nest of wasps.

              I generally go out of my way to avoid disturbing wasps and bees. They’re very useful to me as a farmer, and to everybody else, since we all eat.

            13. Tennis rackets work well on hornets, nicely cubed.

              I was stung by one of the less troublesome species of jellyfish but did not know the correct treatment for them. It was over 1 year until the itching stopped coming back. After that I always carried a spray bottle of vinegar when diving, mostly used it to treat people on the BIG dive company’s boat who’s ‘divemasters’ didn’t have a clue.

              NAOM

  41. End of fillings in sight as scientists find Alzheimer’s drug makes teeth grow back

    “Scientists showed it is possible to soak a small biodegradable sponge with the drug and insert it into a cavity, where it triggers the growth of dentine and repairs the damage within six weeks.

    The tiny sponges are made out of collagen so they melt away over time, leaving only the repaired tooth…”

    Tideglusib

    “…
    • Tooth repair mechanisms that promotes dentine reinforcement of a sponge structure until the sponge biodegrades, leaving a solid dentine structure. In 2016 it was successfully trialled for permanently filling 0.14mm holes in mouse teeth.”

    Dental device promises pain-free tooth repair—Reminova

    “…a new technology developed by British scientists could dramatically reduce the need for unpleasant dental drilling…

    They’ve called this process Electrically Assisted Enhanced Remineralisation (EAER). It uses a tiny electrical current of a few micro Amps, that don’t cause any physical sensation in the patient, to introduce natural minerals back into the clean lesion. The electrical field pushes the mineral ions into the cavity, triggering remineralization from the deepest part of the lesion. “

  42. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is now worth $100B thanks to Black Friday boom
    by Yelena Dzhanova

    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-now-worth-100b-thanks-black-friday-n823911

    Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has reached a net worth of $100 billion — it’s enough this holiday to buy over half a billion Echo speakers or pay the yearly subscriptions of more than 670 million Amazon Music Unlimited accounts.

    The online retail mogul this week surpassed Bill Gates on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, advancing almost $11 billion past the Microsoft co-founder. He can thank Black Friday sales for helping Amazon shares to jump more than 2 percent and online holiday sales to increase by more than 18 percent since last year, Bloomberg reported.

    The 53-year-old businessman is the first person to reach a net worth of over $100 billion since Gates in 1999, according to Bloomberg. Gates was the world’s richest person prior to Bezos’ climb and is now worth almost $90 billion.

  43. October 2017 Was the Second Warmest October on Record

    “Last month was +0.90 degrees Celsius warmer than the mean October temperature from 1951-1980, just barely warmer than October 2016 (+0.89 °C). The warmest month of October according to the analysis happened in 2015 (+1.08 °C).”

    https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/20171116/

    1. Weak La Nina likely to continue through winter but El Nino probabilities are growing for late 2018, and it’s staying really warm in the Arctic. I think we could be seeing new records from spring 2019, even if it just goes back to neutral or weakly positive.

      The loss of Antarctic sea ice last year looks to be continuing this, though so far not quite as bad, but maybe not just a one off weather event, and I’m still waiting for the paper that shows how much that change in albedo is impacting the rate of warming.

  44. World surface average temperature decreasing for 21 months in a row.

    Monthly temperatures are highly variable as the intrinsic short term variability is forced into 30-31 day periods. However the short term cooling trend is clear. 2017 will be less warm than 2016, and with current weak La Niña conditions in the Pacific, 2018 is set to be less warm than 2017.

    1. The trend is still UP from the beginning of Javier’s posted chart from the first month he posted until the last, lol.

      1. Yes, the world is in a long term warming trend (~ 350 years). I see it makes you laugh. Does it make you happy that the world is in a long term warming trend? Would it make you happier if it was in a long term cooling trend? Climate history shows the world is always warming or cooling at different rates for different periods. Never stationary. It also shows warm periods are historically associated to better human conditions.

        1. It also shows warm periods are historically associated to better human conditions.

          Really now?!

          http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-last-time-co2-was-this-high-humans-didnt-exist-15938

          The Last Time CO2 Was This High, Humans Didn’t Exist

          The last time there was this much carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth’s atmosphere, modern humans didn’t exist. Megatoothed sharks prowled the oceans, the world’s seas were up to 100 feet higher than they are today, and the global average surface temperature was up to 11°F warmer than it is now.

          As we near the record for the highest CO2 concentration in human history — 400 parts per million — climate scientists worry about where we were then, and where we’re rapidly headed now.

          Your ignorance is too profound to even begin to address in any rational manner and your denialism of reality is beyond pathological!

          It is more fruitful to have a discussion with a fundamentalist Christian Creationist pastor who believes the world is flat, that we have been here for only 5,000 years and dinosaur fossils are put here by a god to fuck with our minds. At least such a person is honest about his world view!

          1. “The Last Time CO2 Was This High, Humans Didn’t Exist”

            You are talking about CO₂, not temperatures. It is clear you confound both things.

            When climate is cold, crops fail more often, the population suffers famines, and diseases spread more easily on the weakened population.

            After the Roman Warm Period, the migration period (DAGP, Dark Ages Cold Period) witnessed a terrible period in human history, with plagues spreading through the Ancient World, like the Antonin plague.

            After the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age witnessed a terrible period in human history, with plagues spreading through the Ancient World, like the Black plague. The population of Nordic countries was decimated several times, with Finland losing a third of its population in the Great Famine of 1695-1697. Scotland decided to become a part of a United Kingdom after losing 15% of its population during the Seven Ill Years in the 1690s.

            Climatic cycles of the past are evident in the North Atlantic iceberg record of the past 10,000 years. Human caused global warming is taking place on top of cyclical natural warming that started 350 years ago that is clearly responsible for part of the warming.

            1. You are talking about CO₂, not temperatures. It is clear you confound both things.

              No, I am not confounding those things. I am just pointing out that there is an immense body of scientific evidence from basic physics and chemistry to ecology and the study of complex non linear systems that points to a potential radical change in future global temperatures, sea level rise and massive disruption to many of the planetary system on which we humans depend for our survival, due to having 400 ppm plus of CO2 in the atmosphere.

              400 ppm plus of CO2 in the atmosphere could produce conditions not seen since the Pliocene. Such conditions would be completely unprecedented within the historical scope of human experience.

              If you do not accept that reality you are simple sticking your head in the sand and disagreeing with the scientific consensus across a very wide range of scientific fields. And yes, there is indeed a scientific consensus! As Doug already mentioned 15,000 scientists from a highly diversified range of fields have issued a warning to humanity in a single unified voice, telling us that things are not well and that we need to change the path we are on.

              You can cherry pick data till you are blue in the face or until the cows come home and try to argue against all of them but you are not a Galileo, you are just a self-aggrandized crank .

              https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-the-world-passed-a-carbon-threshold-400ppm-and-why-it-matters

              Last year will go down in history as the year when the planet’s atmosphere broke a startling record: 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide. The last time the planet’s air was so rich in CO2 was millions of years ago, back before early predecessors to humans were likely wielding stone tools; the world was a few degrees hotter back then, and melted ice put sea levels tens of meters higher.

              “We’re in a new era,” says Ralph Keeling, director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s CO2 Program in San Diego. “And it’s going fast. We’re going to touch up against 410 pretty soon.”

              There’s nothing particularly magic about the number 400. But for environmental scientists and advocates grappling with the invisible, intangible threat of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, this symbolic target has served as a clear red line into a danger zone of climate change.

              When scientists (specifically, Ralph Keeling’s father) first started measuring atmospheric CO2 consistently in 1958, at the pristine Mauna Loa mountaintop observatory in Hawaii, the CO2 level stood at 316 parts per million (ppm), just a little higher than the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm. 400 was simply the next big, round number looming in our future.

            2. “400 ppm plus of CO2 in the atmosphere could produce conditions not seen since the Pliocene.”

              In terms of CO₂ yes, in terms of temperatures there is absolutely no evidence supporting that. Pliocene CO₂ conditions within Pleistocene temperature conditions is something new.

              So you keep confounding CO₂ with temperature.

              “If you do not accept that reality”

              I do accept reality. What I do not accept is science fiction coming from inadequate computer models.

              What we are seeing is that CO₂ levels can go up greatly and temperatures rise modestly in response. This ought not to be surprising since we know CO₂ concentrations of >10,000 ppm have been common in the past. The Late Ordovician Ice Age took place with CO₂ concentrations 16x those of today, as far as we know.

              There is a huge misunderstanding in the relation between CO₂ and temperatures. The temperature -> CO₂ relation is clearly different from the CO₂ -> temperature relation.

              After 40 years of going nowhere climate science will eventually start to come around the fact they are following an unproductive scientific paradigm. Same thing is happening with string theory and dark matter. It is more usual than most people think that science errs its ways for decades.

            3. Same thing is happening with string theory and dark matter.

              CERN has not been kind to either– but science has been kind to CO2 and temperature.

              Here we go again:

            4. Hi Javier,

              The physics and chemistry tells a very different story than the one you spin.

              The models are not perfect, but they get the general trend in temperatures, fairly closely.

              We do not have very good estimates of atmospheric CO2 from the distant past and we also don’t have very good Global temperature estimates from the distant past.

              Until someone comes up with a better model, we stick with the best model we have.

              A pretty good guess for the range of climate sensitivity was made in 1979 for the fast response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (equilibrium approached about 400 years after a doubling once the ocean has time to approach a thermal equilibrium). There is now much stronger evidence that equilibrium climate sensitivity is about 3+/-1.5 C.

              An interesting piece on “Charney sensitivity” (what I have called ECS) and ESS at link below.

              http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/07/climate-sensitivity-estimates-and-corrections/

            5. Yes, the world is in a long term warming trend, and as a purely ABSTRACT proposition, that trend wouldn’t matter much at all, either way, to humanity’s survival. Our kind can and will deal successfully with just about anything Mother Nature can throw out at us, since we are already scattered all over the globe and because we can control fire and make tools. If ninety nine percent of us die off, well, the remaining one percent will repopulate the planet in due time.

              AS A PRACTICAL MATTER……. well now, we are mostly located in the particular places that suit us best with the climate as it has been for the last three centuries or so, since the Industrial Revolution.

              Just about all the infrastructure in existence has been built since then. Just about all the food that keeps us alive is produced in places that have climate suited to the various kinds of agriculture we know and practice. Most of the forests we depend on for ecosystem services, and for wood products, are located in these same areas.

              And although I lack expertise in salt water fisheries, it seems to me that the consensus of people who DO have such expertise is that rising temperatures and rising CO2 levels in particular appear to be causing real harm to salt water fisheries already and threatening to destroy some particular fisheries and severely damage others.

              AVERAGE temperatures don’t mean very much, when you happen to be dependent on the crops that grow in a particular area, such as the American bread basket states of Iowa and Nebraska. We Yankees have a lot of breathing room in terms of land and climate and agriculture, but the world as a whole is already in a big bind in terms of both arable land and water supplies.

              A rise of a degree or two on average will be enough to force up the summer highs as much as ten degrees or more a lot of days in many parts of the world, and that’s more than enough to wipe out staple crop production if these extra hot days coincide with dry weather at critical times during the season……. and they do, more often than not.

              We’re ADAPTED to the world as it EXISTS TODAY, economically and politically and ecologically, in general terms.

              Any major change in climate over large areas will mean tens of millions of people may or most likely will be moving in search of food in uncontrollable migrations. Hot wars will break out over the control of land and water.

              We had best be praying to the Rock or Tree or Mountain or Sky Daddy or Mommy of our choice that things stay as much as possible just as they are now, climate wise.

              Anybody who knows shit from apple butter about the BIG PICTURE knows I’m telling it like it is.

              We aren’t ever going to grow a lot of corn or wheat in northern Canada. There’s more and better soil in Siberia, they tell me, but I’m no more anxious for my relatives and fellow countrymen to be dependent on Russia for food than I am for those of us living today to be dependent on Russian oil and gas exports.

              Nobody who ignores the precautionary principle can claim to be a REAL scientist, from the ethical point of view.

              Yes there is some evidence that we did well during some past warm periods but times have changed since then. We’re many times more numerous now, and far more dependent on IMPORTS of all our critical needs, not across political lines, but across geographical boundaries such as oceans, mountain ranges and deserts. A lack of rain in one part of the world can trigger famines in other parts of it now, and even cause wars to break out in far places.

              With any substantial increase in average temperatures world wide, we are going to lose as much food production to excessively hot weather as we would lose to unusually cold weather.

              I’m a pro farmer, and I DO have expertise in this particular fiend.

          2. Fred – Yes, Javier reminds me of a Jehovah Witness, someone with all the answers, delusional and pretentious: continually replaying his pseudo-climate science mantra. Javier MIGHT benefit from an introductory level course in statistics, as a start, but he would just as likely say his teachers have it all wrong, such is the way his mind works, or rather, doesn’t work.

            2. Yup, more than 15,000 (climate) scientists from 184 countries issue ‘warning to humanity’ and Javier says, not to worry, all is well. You are an embarrassment to science Javier, or you would be if anyone took you seriously.

            3. You are talking about opinion, not evidence. The opinion of climate scientists that make a living out of keeping a state of climate fear is to be noted, but not blindly followed. If they have evidence they can show it. Last time I checked computer model output was not considered evidence by science.

            4. Wrong, I’m talking about REAL climate scientists who go into the field, who collect data, who attend conferences, who analyze their data using REAL statistics and reach conclusions that are broadly in agreement with their peers.

            5. Again if they have the evidence they have to show it. After 40 years Estimated Climate Sensitivity is still 1.5 to 4.5. And anything ≤2° means we ought not to worry as at most we are going to reach a single doubling from pre-industrial levels, as we have no fossil fuels for more than that.

              Some people without proper scientific education have a problem distinguishing scientists opinions from science. Scientists opinions are as wrong and susceptible to cognitive biases as anybody else opinions. The appeal to authority fallacy is unnecessary when you have the evidence.

            6. “Some people without proper scientific education have a problem distinguishing scientists opinions from science.”

              Yes, and you’re a perfect example of these people.

            7. We are not just talking about climate science per se. Either you are being deliberately obtuse or you are actually unaware of research from 100s of different fields of science. ranging from marine biology, forest ecology, entomology, plant physiology, social studies etc…

            8. “Either you are being deliberately obtuse or you are actually unaware of research from 100s of different fields of science. ranging from marine biology, forest ecology, entomology, plant physiology, social studies etc…”

              After 350 years of warming, changes are being recorded. Those changes are much lesser than changes recorded during the Holocene for the past 10,000 years. The Pre-Boreal, Boreal, Atlantic, and Sub-Atlantic periods witnessed widespread vegetation changes in some ecozones that make current changes induced by climate change look puny.

              The most profound and negative changes are being caused by humans, not climate change.

            9. “Yes, and you’re a perfect example of these people.”

              After a professional life spent among scientists, some of them Nobel prize recipients, I have come to know that scientists opinions (including mine) in the absence of evidence, are worth 3 cents.

              The only way to increase the chances of being correct in the end is sticking to the evidence even if it means going against scientific consensus. That’s what I am doing in this case. If the evidence for the consensus position existed, we would be told about it, and not shown computer model outputs. Past climate evidence indicates the role of CO₂ in climate change has been grossly exaggerated, while natural climate change underestimated. This is to the advantage of climate scientists that are making a living out of the state of climate fear, and being the heroes of the day. Without a state of climate fear more than half of them would be out of job and most of the rest just like other government and academic bureaucrats working in science.

            10. The most profound and negative changes are being caused by humans, not climate change.

              Riiight! Humans ARE CURRENTLY the number one cause of climate change!

            11. “Humans ARE CURRENTLY the number one cause of climate change!”

              You don’t have the evidence to back that up, so it is just an opinion. If it turns out that CO₂ has a very low climate sensitivity, it will turn out we are not the number one cause of climate change.

              That you put it in all capitals and black doesn’t make it any more real.

            12. Hi Javier,

              The evidence is the correlation of changes in temperature with changes in carbon dioxide.

              The causal connection is from geophysics.

              So we have a theory informed by well accepted physical principles and we have data that backs up that theory.

              The transient climate response based on the data is about 2 C, if we use the response of land only temperature change as a proxy for charney sensitivity (aka ECS), then we get an estimate of over 3 C.

              The fact that this roughly matches the ensemble mean of Global Climate models suggests that the model mean may be approximately correct.

              There is also the possibility that rather than climate sensitivity being less than the mean estimate as you assume, it might be greater than 3 C, say 3.5 C, which suggests about a 3 C rise in temperature above pre-industrial under an RCP4.5 scenario.

            13. Hi Dennis,

              There is a total disconnect between changes in CO₂ and changes in temperature at glacial inceptions. The correlation is a lot worse than you imply. At the end of the Eemian there was huge changes in temperatures and no change in CO₂, and later big changes in CO₂ without corresponding effect on temperatures.

              Physical principles are of little relevance in a very complex system where it is unknown how several factors affect the outcome. We know what causes tides but they cannot be predicted from first principles due to the many factors that affect them. They are extrapolated from frequency analysis of past data at each location.

              Climate models are overheating with their ECS of 3 in just a few years. This was recently acknowledged by
              Millar, R. J., et al. “Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C.” Nature Geoscience 10.10 (2017): 741-747.

              “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations,” Myles Allen, a geosystem scientist at the University of Oxford, told The Times on Monday.

              “The models end up with a warming which is larger than the observed warming for the current emissions. … So, therefore, they derive a budget which is much lower,” study co-author Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter said, according to The Washington Post.

              Co-author Joeri Rogelj of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis told WaPo the sophisticated climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “tend to slightly overestimate historical warming, and at the same time underestimate compatible historical CO2 emissions.”

              “These two small discrepancies accumulate over time and lead to an slight underestimation of the remaining carbon budget,” Rogelj told WaPo. “What we did in this study is to reset the uncertainties, starting from where we are today.”

              So now they are starting to recognize what skeptics have been saying all along. Climate sensitivity of models is likely too high.

            14. Hi Javier,

              In a complex system there may be lags in changes in atmospheric CO2 and changes in temperature due the the thermal inertia of ice sheets and the ocean. Over the long term the physics matters.

              It is pretty simple really, heat in minus heat out. The physics of atmospheric CO2 and water vapor and their effect on incoming and outgoing radiation is well understood when applied to our knowledge of initial conditions in a computer model (and there are many of these), the climate conditions are reproduced fairly well, not perfectly but close enough. For the older CMIP3 models (reproduced using the MAGICC6 emulator), the models that match temperature observations best from 1880 to 2015 have ECS between 2.5 and 3.5C.

              A very simple correlation between CO2, length of day, total solar irradiance and aerosols, gives a transient climate response of 2.24 C over the 1850-2015 period.

              Using land only temperature data we can find the TCR for land which may be a good proxy for the charney sensitivity (ECS) and it is 3.36 C for 1850 to 2015.

              Note also that we do not have good global estimates of temperature in the past.

              Sometime drastic changes in local temperatures can occur due to changes in ocean circulation which are not as large on a global scale.

              The precise prediction of temperature is not needed, just as the general movement of tides can be predicted primarily from the movement of the Earth and Moon relative to the Sun. The complex movement of the ocean is more difficult to predict precisely. I suppose you could claim the ocean does not follow physical laws, but I would be skeptical of such a claim.

        2. Hi Javier,

          The temperature trend from 1670 to 1900 was about a 0.11 C per century increase for Global land-ocean temperature.

          Data from Mann et al 2008.

          1. From 1901-2006 Global Land ocean temperature increased at 0.73 C per century almost 7 times faster than the previous 231 years.

            So there has been a warming trend for about 350 years, but the rate of warming has changed markedly over the more recent period (1901-2006).

      2. Yes, the natural variation and range can be confusing to amateurs who understand little about statistics and look at narrow sets of data. They also do not understand the implications of surges within the overall temperature rise. These cause more ice melt, more forest and jungle burns and more methane and CO2 releases from soils and water bodies. This in turn adds more water vapor to the atmosphere.
        Applying the results of a single variable to measure a highly complex system takes a high degree of knowledge and ability that is well beyond the comprehension of most people.
        I am sure that single point chasers will be enthralled by the next large volcanic explosion. Yet despite many of these and a large negative aerosol effect, temperature still keeps rising. In fact during the last three decades, the global temps have risen at a rate of 0.2C per decade. Of course more northern regions are rising much faster than that. Most people are not cognizant of the Cretaceous pole to equator temperature differential. The equatorial region was only a few degrees warmer than currently. However the northern polar region was more than 20 C warmer. The global average temperature does not even begin to describe what is really going on in the earth system.
        Armchair climate dissidents are a continued source of irritation and amusement but are also a general danger to the planet and the public.

        1. ” to measure a highly complex system takes a high degree of knowledge and ability that is well beyond the comprehension of most people.”

          So complex that even the experts get it wrong.

          Kravtsov, S. (2017). Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5 simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters.
          http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074016/full

          “The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations.

          Global and regional warming trends over the course of the twentieth century have been nonuniform, with decadal and longer periods of faster or slower warming, or even cooling. Here we show that state-of-the-art global models used to predict climate fail to adequately reproduce such multidecadal climate variations. In particular, the models underestimate the magnitude of the observed variability and misrepresent its spatial pattern. Therefore, our ability to interpret the observed climate change using these models is limited.”

          1. Hi Javier,

            What is adequate in this context? That reads like the author’s opinion.

    2. Once more Javier cherry picks data using a hot, El Nino year as a starting point.

      Stick to something you know about, biology.

      NAOM

      1. NAOM, you don’t get it. I’ll explain. Surface average temperature is going down on a monthly basis (using a 12 month average to reduce noise). This situation is a fact that does not depend on picking a date, it is just happening now. This situation has been happening for 21 months and won’t change until temperatures start going up on a monthly basis.

          1. No 21 month period is picked. That is just the time since monthly negative rate of warming started.

            1. Hi Javier,

              Yep temperature goes up and down, it is called natural variation. Something that climate science understands very well.

        2. Maaannn! It is you that doesn’t get it. Weather changes temperatures all the time. You cherry pick your start point at a peak which is like saying this month is cooler (here) than October so that it proves cooling is occurring when, in fact, it is because winter is approaching.

          Liar.

          NAOM

          1. Yes, temperatures change all the time. Apparently when they are increasing as during past El Niño that is newsworthy, but when they are decreasing as now, that cannot even be mentioned without being insulted.

            1. Hi Javier, longer term trends are important (say 25 years or longer).

              21 month trends, not so much.

    3. ‘Anthropogenic climate change is debateable, and even if it isn’t, it’s nothing to worry about.’
      ©2017, Caelan MacIntyre

  45. James Hansen interview in Der Spiegel:

    The nuclear phase-out is a big mistake
    http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/klimawandel-der-atomausstieg-ist-ein-grosser-fehler-interview-a-1178009.html
    Contains interesting opinions:
    “It is a huge mistake for the world. Most of the countries cannot afford to go without nuclear power.

    nuclear energy would be the most environmentally friendly of all energy candidates that we know of.

    More renewable energies? You’re joking. The subsidies set aside for renewable energies are forcing consumers to pay higher rates – a sort of invisible tax. The power bill keeps rising, but the customer does not know why.”

    Apparently in the green religion pantheon not everybody worships to both climate doom and nuclear doom gods. Will he be excommunicated and burned in effigy?

    1. No, he’ll just be pointed to as a good example of the general principle that one can be an expert in one area, and be completely uninformed about an another area that seems superficially closely related. Like, in this case, I have the impression that Hansen is well regarded with regards to climatology, but it’s clear that he knows little about nuclear vs renewables. And yet, people will listen to him because of his expertise in climatology.

      1. Yet quite some countries are building nuclear units like there’s no fossil fuel tomorrow. Perhaps they are on to something.

        1. Given the time required to build nuclear plants, that’s not really very many in the pipeline.

          Still, I am curious about Russia and China’s experience and plans with nuclear generation. You could do a real service to the group if you spent some time to do thorough research (as opposed to superficial popular articles) and really got a good idea what’s going on with both their costs and their longterm building plans.

          1. Good nuclear information is a lot harder to get than good science information that is available in scientific journals.

            Besides my interest in nuclear energy is not too high as there is no chance my country might start building new nuclear plants anytime soon. That solution won’t work for us.

            Anyway I’ll keep my eyes open for good analysis of nuclear energy.

            Energy matters, Euan Mearns energy blog has a few interesting articles on nuclear.
            http://euanmearns.com/

            1. there is no chance my country might start building new nuclear plants anytime soon. That solution won’t work for us.

              Is that Spain? Is it a matter of the size of the Spanish grid, relative to nuclear plants?

      2. It’s not just my opinion, the guy is a crank, much like you!

        https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/21/experts-reject-bjorn-lomborg-centres-view-that-2c-warming-target-not-worth-it

        Experts have challenged a claim by Bjørn Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consensus Centre that holding global temperature rises to 2C is a poor investment.

        http://bigthink.com/in-their-own-words/the-pseudoscience-of-bjorn-lomborg-global-warming-denier

        The Pseudoscience of Bjørn Lomborg, Global Warming Denier

        http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/08/bjorn-lomborg-just-a-scientist-with-a-different-opinion/

        Bjørn Lomborg, just a scientist with a different opinion?
        Filed under: Climate Science Communicating Climate skeptics — stefan @ 31 August 2015 – (Español)

        Bjørn Lomborg is a well-known media personality who argues that there are more important priorities than reducing emissions to limit global warming. In a recent controversy centering on him, the Australian government (known for its contradictory position on climate change) offered the University of Western Australia (UWA) $4 million to make Lomborg professor – which UWA first accepted, but then after massive protest from its staff and students refused. The Australian government was quick to label it a “freedom of speech” issue that Lomborg should get a university position, and vowed to find another university that would host him. However, free speech doesn’t guarantee everyone a university position; there are also academic qualifications required

        He doesn’t have the academic qualifications!

        1. “He doesn’t have the academic qualifications!”

          You mean the qualifications that you think he should have. He’s got a PhD from the University of Copenhagen, and has been a professor at the University of Aarhus for 10 years and at the Copenhagen Business School for 12 years. Most people consider that academic qualifications.

          If the University of Western Australia doesn’t want the money and the opportunity to create an Australian Consensus Centre at the image of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, it is free to reject the deal under University sacrosanct autonomy. I don’t see a problem with that.

          You have your opinion. But you are heavily biased in your opinions.
          In 2009, Business Insider cited Lomborg as one of “The 10 Most-Respected Global Warming Skeptics”.
          In 2011 and 2012, Lomborg was named a Top 100 Global Thinker by Foreign Policy.
          Others clearly have a different opinion.

          And you have yet to show that Lomborg’s text and figure above is incorrect. You rather go the “ad hominem” way showing that you are short on arguments.

          1. You mean the qualifications that you think he should have.

            No! The qualifications that the University of Western Australia requires. He has zero background in any science his degree is in political science, sorry that doesn’t qualify him to lecture on climate science or any other hard science for that matter!

            Lomborg spent a year as an undergraduate at the University of Georgia, earned an M.A. degree in political science at the University of Aarhus in 1991, and a Ph.D. degree in political science at the University of Copenhagen in 1994.
            Source Wikipedia.

            BTW that does not qualify him to be a scientific climate skeptic either. All he can do is express his opinion which is worth about as much as a bucket of warm spit amongst real climate scientists…

            1. “No! The qualifications that the University of Western Australia requires.”

              I’m afraid I don’t buy that the problem with the University of Western Australia was one of lack of academic credentials, but with him being a climate skeptic.

              I don’t know what he teaches about at the University of Aarhus and at the Copenhagen Business School. I could find out, but don’t care enough. He is not a climate scientist and he doesn’t publish climate science articles. He has the same right as anybody else to be skeptic about the alarmist story telling. He doesn’t doubt climate change science, but deals mainly with economic aspects of adaptation.

              He has the right qualifications for what he teaches, writes, and does, and the world at large recognizes him that. Otherwise his articles would not be so influential. You just happen to not like what he says, because he is probably right. That’s why you attack him instead of attacking what he says.

              I don’t agree with everything he defends, but when he says that we are going to expend a lot of money if the Paris agreement is fulfilled, for almost no effect, I think he is spot on. The climate change religion lacks a serious cost/effect analysis, and Lomborg is one of the few people doing that.

            2. I don’t agree with everything he defends, but when he says that we are going to expend a lot of money if the Paris agreement is fulfilled, for almost no effect, I think he is spot on.

              Dunno, I think he is a shill for the fossil fuel interests. The global economy is on the cusp of collapse due to a perfect storm of disruptions. Apparently both he and you identify with supporting the 1%. The people who will be hurt the most by the coming economic collapse are the Fossil fuel interests, automobile companies, centralized utilities, nuclear and global finance with all its eggs in those baskets. Lomborg is saying renewables are part of the problem. He is full of shit in a big way.

              I’m in Tony Seba’s and Hunter Lovins’ camp!

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=iXlSkL39teo

              Hunter Lovins argues that the current economic model subsidises incumbent technologies and corporate profits, while socialising losses and spreading inequalities. And then there’s the effect the economy has on ecosystems…
              However, she also sees light at the end of the tunnel. She points to the rapid rise of renewable energy, to companies that perform better when they have sustainability as a touchstone for innovation, and to communities that are taking control of their energy needs.
              Taking inspiration from the likes of John Fullerton and Kate Raworth, Hunter proposes we take a regenerative approach to economics. Find out why during this live interview at the Disruptive Innovation Festival.

            3. I am not altogether on anybody’s camp, because nobody is altogether on my camp.

              I distinguish between what I want and want I think most probably will happen. I don’t care much about fossil fuels except that I wish there is a working alternative when they start to run out, which I think is probably already starting to happen. I fear that is not what will probably happens. New renewables are parasitic and require fossil fuels to build, install, maintain, and replace, and worse of all, they require fossil fuels to address their intermittence. So I think without nuclear we are going to be pretty much toasted, as I believe we are going to be in deep shit in about 20 years at most.

              And the climate crisis is just a ridiculous way of burning money while supporting a different subset of the 1%. We will completely forget about it the moment our economy starts failing.

            4. New renewables are parasitic and require fossil fuels to build, install, maintain, and replace, and worse of all, they require fossil fuels to address their intermittence.

              No. renewables don’t REQUIRE fossil fuels. But, they happen to be here, and they’re the most convenient thing for the transition.

              Horses transported the first oil barrels. Oil is now transporting EVs. That won’t be the case forever.

            5. I’m against a system which doesn’t work for the majority of the people on the planet and one that is destroying the planet as well. You on the other hand seem to think that system needs to be kept running for as long as possible. From a purely economic and full cost benefit analysis view point, nuclear is just plain stupid! Elon Musk added battery storage to wind energy production in Australia in less than 100 days on a bet. Try that with any other technology… The status quo is no longer a viable option.

            6. “renewables don’t REQUIRE fossil fuels.”

              They do now and for the foreseeable future. And this is when we need to not depend on them. The problem that I see is that if fossil fuels falter too soon there won’t be an energy transition, we will just sink in an spiral of reduced energy. Gas and coal might not be enough to bridge the transition. In my opinion we need nuclear to guarantee a safety net. It is all too important that we don’t fall to the ground.

            7. Hi Javier,

              Fossil fuels will simply become expensive as they deplete and that will tend to speed up a transition to alternatives to fossil fuel. There really is no reason a ramp to solar, wind and hydro (including pumped hydro), with maybe a bit of nuclear will not be feasible.

              Note that concern with climate change is a reason why the transition is starting to occur, but peak fossil fuels and higher fossil fuel prices will put the transition to non-fossil fuel energy (including nuclear) into overdrive.

            8. Javier,

              I agree, in principle – supply diversity is always valuable. But, as Mac often points out, renewables reduce FF consumption and extend their life. And, as Dennis points out, we’re not going to run out of FF quickly – we’ll face a gradually rising cost curve.

              I don’t know about natural gas, but coal is sadly abundant. A price rise of about 2 cents per kWh would get you 20 years of supply from Powder River, and 80 years of supply from the Illinois Basin.

            9. Javier, please watch Interview with Hunter Lovins starting from where she discusses Seba’s ideas on disruption. You might also watch a video featuring Seba’s “Clean Disruption” from a presentation he did in June 2017. I get the impression that you either have never watched a Seba video or you dismiss his ideas out of hand. If you have never watched a Seba video, you should. If you dismiss his ideas, that puts you in the category of “smart people in smart organizations that consistently fail to anticipate let alone lead market disruptions” .

              With regard to renewable energy , consider this:
              At the end of 2012 the global cumulative PV generating capacity was just over 100 GW.
              This year it is estimated that about 100 GW of new solar PV generating capacity will be added by the end of the year.
              If you use a capacity factor of 10% for solar vs. 90% for nuclear, that means solar is adding the equivalent of about 11 average sized nuclear plants in one year. If solar manufacturing capacity continues to grow at recent rates, we should see four times that, the equivalent of 44 nuclear plants in the year 2022 and more than that each year after that.

              Before I get called all sorts of names, all I am doing is highlighting that, we appear to be in the beginning of a tectonic transformation in energy and transportation. Dismiss the prospects of this at your own peril!

            10. Islandboy,

              I don’t usually watch videos, but I’ll make an exception and watch those. This is a discussion in which I wish you are right. I just fear you might not. I saw what happened in 2008 as a consequence of the peak in conventional oil and how we were eventually saved by throwing away all monetary theories and by developing the LTO resources. Most people don’t realize that we are living in borrowed time. The next big crisis could be the last before the long descent.

              Even if we get everything right we might end up facing a very serious monetary crisis down the path we have taken.

            11. Dennis,

              “Fossil fuels will simply become expensive as they deplete and that will tend to speed up a transition to alternatives to fossil fuel.”

              That’s unlikely. The moment oil production is unable to grow and meet demand, the price of oil will be the least of our problems. Smart money will realize that economic growth is over and will start a run to solid assets and out of paper assets. This ought to produce a financial crash like the world has never seen, accompanied by hyperinflation and money value destruction. Under those conditions the economy crashes and oil production crashes. None of your models will work. It will be unexplored territory. After the collapse of the economical system, the collapse of the political system follows.

            12. Hi Javier,

              Perhaps the economic system is as fragile as you imagine.

              First, most people will only come to realize that fossil fuels have peaked after the fact. Prices will rise and they will be used more efficiently. Entrepreneurs that realize earlier that fossil fuels will reach a peak, might see the end of economic growth, but some will see a business opportunity in rail, light rail, EVs, wind, solar, and nuclear power.

              Humans are less frail than you believe, we tend to be pretty damn resilient.

              In short, though here could be a temporary depression, proper economic policy will prevent hyperinflation (which occurs when the money supply is too high), in fact in the US, it was deflation that was the problem during the Great Depression.

              As long as silly policies such as the Eurozone’s response to the GFC are not followed (tight fiscal policy during a severe recession is exactly the wrong policy response), the World will be fine.

            13. Javier, If you’re into books then Seba’s “Clean Disruption” is the book on which his presentations are based and is available from most large booksellers.

              There is a pdf of Hunter Lovins’ “A Finer Future” available at The Club of Rome web site.

            14. The moment oil production is unable to grow and meet demand, the price of oil will be the least of our problems. Smart money will realize that economic growth is over…

              Why? Freight doesn’t HAVE to have oil to move (look at Tesla’s Semi). Employees don’t HAVE to have oil to get to work (think Nissan Leaf).

              Yes, a transition could be painful, but the physics of the situation isn’t the problem. Freight and commuters could move with half the oil they use now, while alternatives were being ramped up.

              Will investors simply be frightened by Peak Oil, and create an unnecessary panic? I don’t see why.

  47. I’ve been reading the nay saying sites stuff saying the Tesla semi can’t work, and it does appear that Musk is counting on some major improvements in energy density and cost of batteries over the next couple of years.

    The one thing that really seems just about out of the question is this. Where will he find enough juice to recharge these trucks in thirty minutes? The electrical load is going to be a killer, and not likely available at more than a few locations unless new lines are installed by the local utility.

    Now integrating those batteries into the truck, and into the new sports car may not be so easily accomplished either.

    But I’ve just been piddling around with one of my old tractors, and ya know what? It doesn’t even HAVE a frame, or a unibody. The differential and axle castings, the transmission case, and the engine block all do double duty saving the need for a frame.

    Maybe the batteries will be integrated into the structure of these vehicles in such a way that the weight of the batteries is mostly offset by savings of structural steel that would otherwise be necessary.

    1. Reality check:
      This is lithium ion, first commercialized by the Japanese in the early 1990’s.
      It has been a while. And if you do the math, we are in a bottleneck.

      1. If we can put our hands on enough lithium and the other materials necessary to make lithium ion batteries on the grand scale , we can easily adapt to using them on the grand scale, in principle, although it’s true the adaptation may be very painful as a practical matter.

        I have seen cars with lattice type frames. They were very high performance cars, among the most advanced of their day.

        It may be possible to build trucks using this sort of structure, with individual battery cells or clusters of cells located in the empty spaces within the lattice. It may even be possible that the cases of the cells themselves can serve as structural members.

        If oil had turned out to be very limited in supply a century ago, we wouldn’t be running trucks coast to coast these days. We would be using fast trains almost exclusively for long distance shipping , or water shipping.

        We wouldn’t be talking about urban sprawl either, unless the electric car revolution had arrived earlier in this hypothetical world. We would be clustered in cities where we could either get around using mass transit, or living in such a way that we wouldn’t NEED to get around very much or very often.

        1. Yair . . . .

          “It may be possible to build trucks using this sort of structure, with individual battery cells or clusters of cells located in the empty spaces within the lattice. It may even be possible that the cases of the cells themselves can serve as structural members.”

          I don’t like that suggestion. We bought one of the early Panasonic battery vacuum cleaners lasted about five years batteries wouldn’t hold charge. Pulled it apart and found they had no dedicated battery compartment but had maybe a dozen (I think) two volt cells tucked away in various nooks and crannies.

          I could buy the cells for five dollars each plus five dollars to fit them with solderable tabs . . . a hundred and twenty bucks and three or four hours fiddling on a five year old machine?

          We gave it a miss.

          1. I ripped up all the carpet in my condo and have nice terrazzo floor underneath. A quick sweep with a broom and dustpan followed by mopping the floor… Shelves and counters get the feather duster and damp cloth treatment, haven’t needed a vacuum in years. I even get some exercise sweeping dusting and mopping… 😉

            I haven’t needed new batteries yet. Much quieter too!

            1. Yair . . . .

              What pisses ME off is people take food for granted.

    3. Reality check #2,

      Mac, what are you smoking?
      “Maybe the batteries will be integrated into the structure of these vehicles in such a way that the weight of the batteries is mostly offset by savings of structural steel that would otherwise be necessary.”
      According to what I’ve read the 90kWh battery in the Tesla S weighs about 1200 pounds. As far as I know, Tesla still hasn’t revealed the size or weight of the batteries in the truck, but reading other sites I’ve found estimates of 10k pounds to 20k or so.
      The steel frame on common, tandem-drive, over-the-road tractors weighs around 2k or so. Aluminum frames can save about 40% or so, and have been used for decades. I recently sold a 1952 Peterbilt that had an aluminum frame.
      I won’t be surprised to find that the frame on the Tesla truck is even heavier than on a normal diesel-powered truck.
      Anyway, please explain how that battery pack, which I doubt very much can be used as structure, can save it’s own weight in steel. Even if it could, which it can’t, what would you do at battery swapping time? Scrap the truck?

      As for the tractors’ use of engine, trans, and diff housings as structure, you oughta know why that is too. It’s not to save a steel frame. It’s because the tractor needs the weight for traction, the housings mentioned were cast-iron already, cast-iron is cheap, heavy, and strong, which all goes together to make it quite sensible to not have a separate steel frame, but to just increase the thickness of the housings to do the job. And then to hang more cast-iron weights on the front, and/or rear of the tractor to get the weight up to where they could make use of the always more powerful engines being developed, to pull the always bigger plows, to plow the bigger fields, to raise the higher-yielding crops, to feed the more and bigger bellies…………………………

      Now, to my usual bitching: Why didn’t Musk just give us the damn facts about the goddam truck that he thought we should be falling over ourselves to cheer for? Yeah, I know, he’s the smart one, the rich one, and all that bullshit. But that really means little to me. Just another goddam human.

      BTW, here’s a site that asks the questions I asked when the truck was shown.

      https://www.trucks.com/2017/11/20/key-telsa-truck-specs-still-secret/

      Stan

      1. Update on Tesla truck.
        The fee to reserve one of these jewels just went from $5k to $20k. Except for the first 1000 trucks, which will be labeled as “Founders series” or some such bullshit. Price of this bit of bullshit is only $20,000! Yep, tacked onto the $180k cost of the 500-mile-range model. And, whoops, to reserve one of these “special” first 1000 trucks, we need the whole enchilada up front. Guess he needs that $200 million up front to get going.

        https://www.trucks.com/2017/11/25/tesla-reveals-semi-pricing/

        Still no word on the all-important specs. Just, “Trust me guys, I know what I’m doing.”

        Makes me kinda wonder if he’s not setting the stage for a delay. Maybe, not build the factory until/unless at least 1000 trucks are sold? I don’t know anything about playing in that big sandbox.

        Stan

        2. only $20,000! Yep, tacked onto the $180k cost of the 500-mile-range model.

          I think for most vehicles (after the first 1,000) the $20k is part of the $180k, not on top.

          I suppose you can think of the premium for the Founder’s Series as the cost of PR.

      2. The prices have been reported – $180,000 for 500 miles of range or $150,000 for the 300 mile range version.

        No, they haven’t given the size or weight of the battery but they said 2KWh/mile maximum which implies 1000KWh. But, the cost for that doesn’t seem possible so maybe it’s less than the 2KWh/mile average or on just flat ground. It seems likely the capacity is less than 1000KWh, but it certainly isn’t more than that. On the weight, the new 2170 cells improve the weight per KWh, so it’s not going to be 10,000lbs, maybe only 5000lbs. They are putting a 200KWh pack in the new roadster and that can’t be more that 1500lbs.

        As far as cost per mile, the 7cents per KWh and 2KWh/mile is only 14 cents per mile for fuel cost. You can figure the other costs anyway you want, but given that the truck price isn’t much higher than a fossil truck it sounds like payback happens pretty fast.

        It’s not going into production until next year – I’m sure if you were interested in buying a fleet of them you could get any spec you wanted under NDA, but for now its nice to get this much info. They want to generate some excitement without helping the competition with too many detailed specs.

      3. “Industrial feeds are much higher voltage.”

        Excellent point, but it doesn’t change the fact that unless the necessary transmission capacity is available on local distribution lines, new ones will have to be built.

        A hell of a lot of branch lines are already at or very near their design limits, and a lot of utilities are hard pressed to generate and deliver enough juice at certain times, such as when it’s hotter or colder than usual.

        I’m a big Tesla fan, but in this case I’m thinking the roll out of these trucks for over the road use is going to take a long time, with road side charging stations being few and far between and only to be found on the very busiest highways.

        But this doesn’t mean that Tesla can’t sell all the class eight’s the company can build for the first few years. There will be plenty of owners who will be using them for local deliveries.

        Maybe a few super duper charging stations really will have a super duper set of batteries, or several sets, that can be charged up with wind or solar electricity, and used to fast charge a few class eight Tesla’s.

        1. Not to worry OFM. As EV’s take over from fossil fuels (very small now but growing) there will be a surplus of power capacity due to several changes.
          1) fossil fuels use a considerable amount of power to be produced, refined and distributed.
          2) The growing wind and solar PV power system will provide more power, sometimes too much, which can be stored by Tesla and other providers.
          3) Increasing efficiency has been the game, so demand increases will probably be a lot smaller than is anticipated.

          Where we could get in trouble is if we stall or slow the PV and wind transistion so that fossil fuels have to provide much of the power and still keep the FF industries running too. That is a possible scenario that will mean a major problem beyond EV’s in the future.

          I would appreciate some direct information on the state of overload or near overload of our current systems. I know my region just put in a new very high voltage transmission line which is much more efficient and capable of carrying much more power for future use. it will feed one of the densest population regions in the country. If they power companies think they need higher power capacity in the future than they either know their current systems can carry it or they have plans to provide new systems locally.

          1. Hi GF,

            “Where we could get in trouble is if we stall or slow the PV and wind transition so that fossil fuels have to provide much of the power and still keep the FF industries running too. That is a possible scenario that will mean a major problem beyond EV’s in the future.”

            You said it better than I did.

            My biggest fear, in regard to the transition to renewable energy, is that oil and gas may come up in critically short supply before we actutally DO build out enough renewable energy infrastructure and enough electrically powered vehicles to offset the eventual inevitable declining net ( after subtracting oil and gas consumed BY the oil and gas industry, of course, as you pointed out ) supply of oil and gas.

            I’m reasonably optimistic that we CAN, from the technical and economic pov, collectively go renewable and go electric fast enough to avoid an oil and gas supply crisis.

            The question is, WILL WE?

            There may be enough oil, gas, and coal still around to fry the planet to a crisp, if we don’t succeed in making the transition within the next couple of decades at the latest. Maybe it’s too late already.

            I’m hoping Dennis is right, and that there isn’t as nearly much easily accessible fossil fuel left as is assumed in the more pessimistic climate model runs.

      4. Hi Stan,

        I have my doubts myself,because I’m really wondering if it’s going to be possible to haul enough batteries and still haul as big a load legally as a new conventional truck.

        But lattice type structures can work. Google up some pictures of older Jaguar sports cars. A friend of mine used to own one, and it had a lattice frame.

        In modern cars, even the windshield, which is glass, contributes to structural rigidity of the entire car.

        The cell packs that are currently used are not necessarily the size that WILL be used. In new designs, they may be replaced with about twice as many only half as big.

        And the case of each cell pack may possibly be made of a material that can serve not only as the wrapper or container but also as a small structural member. The cell packs may be made oblong or longer or narrower and so forth as best suits the job of integrating them into the truck.

        I’m not saying this will happen, or even that it can be done, as a practical matter, but I don’t see any reason, in principle, why it can’t be done. If it can be done, as a practical matter, it could mean making weight without sacrificing payload, compared to a conventional truck.

    4. How is it that folks assume that Tesla has done no work on charging? They would not be doing this unless they know how to. High power feeds is one way but a depot may use storage to apply a surge charge, charge the charging station for one hour then push into the truck in 15 mins. I also note that fleets are targeted such as Walmart, big depots, lots of power. Not everyone may need 15 min top ups, the trucks sitting around our local Costco are there for plenty of time for a slow charge and there is a lot of feed available, the new mall going up next door will take a whack.

      NAOM

  48. Mount Agung had a phreatic eruption starting on November 21, and a magmatic one since November 25. So far the eruption is moderate, with ash reaching about 4-6 km in altitude and shouldn’t affect global climate. Although an intensification of volcanic activity is likely in the following weeks, it is impossible to know how serious the situation will become.

    https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/agung/news/66181/Gunung-Agung-volcano-Bali-Indonesia-eruption-has-begun.html

    Several companies have started to suspend flights and activities, leaving hundreds of travelers stranded. Nevertheless, advanced warning has been very effective in reducing the number of people at risk, with a 7 km area essentially evacuated.

    Unlike what most people believe, the first winter after a strong stratospheric-reaching tropical volcanic eruption is warmer than it should be without the eruption. It is in the summer when the cooling effect is most noticeable.

    Robock, A., & Mao, J. (1992). Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions. Geophysical Research Letters, 19(24), 2405-2408.

    “An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883–1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95% level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.”
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/92GL02627/full

    1. BREAKING: Eruption at Mount Agung on Bali becomes magmatic, officials say a larger eruption could be imminent https://t.co/xFXbKdiAdd pic.twitter.com/KSNyVuCElM

      — BNO News (@BNONews) 26 Nov 2017

    2. Bali’s airport has been closed, and alert raised to maximum level. The number of travelers now stranded is estimated at ~ 60,000. The ferry route is operating and the Chinese expect to evacuate about a third of their nationals (~ 5,000 out of 17,000) through buses and ferries over the next hours to days. The exclusion zone has been increased to 10 km with ~ 100,000 more people to evacuate together with their animals, as the ash is covering the vegetation and they can’t feed. Strong explosions are being heard up to 12 km away and a strong explosive eruption is feared, although hopefully it won’t happen.

      Mount Agung has erupted multiple times in the recent past, with the last one in 1962-63.

  49. Diving Scientists Report Big Changes Beneath Antarctic Ice Shelf
    Climate change may be driving shifts in Antarctica’s sea life communities

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/diving-scientists-report-big-changes-beneath-antarctic-ice-shelf/

    Climate change may be leading to shifts in the communities of sea life beneath an Antarctic ice shelf, researchers say.
    Scientists diving beneath Antarctica’s Ross Ice Shelf have discovered unexpected changes in the seafloor ecosystem compared to previous studies of the same area, and they think the thinning of the ice shelf caused by climate change may be to blame.
    “Surprisingly big changes in the coastal seafloor communities have occurred in only a few years,” Patrick Degerman, one of three researchers from Finland on the expedition along with six from New Zealand, wrote in a dispatch from the team’s camp on the ice shelf near New Harbour in the Ross Sea.

    “Two days ago, [two of the researchers] did the first dive of the year under the ice in crystal clear water, and much to everyone’s surprise, the animal community on the seafloor had changed dramatically since the last visit in 2009,” he wrote in the first week of November on the expedition’s Facebook page, “Science Under the Ice.” [See Photos of the Big Changes Beneath the Antarctic Ice Shelf]

  50. One man’s poison can be another man’s meat….. temporarily.

    Forced climate change IS good for some people…….. some of the time………. in some places.

    But in this case, the water that’s responsible for an economic boom is depleting….. like oil and gas. It won’t be replenished during the lifetimes of anybody living today, and probably not for a thousand years or longer, when the regional climate eventually cools again.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/26/world/americas/peru-climate-change.html

  51. What does an ice free world look like? Take a look at the late Cretaceous.

    High temperatures in the Late Cretaceous Arctic Ocean

    From these analyses we infer
    an average sea surface temperature of ,15 8C for the Arctic
    Ocean about 70 million years ago7. This calibration point implies
    an Equator-to-pole gradient in sea surface temperatures of
    ,15 8C during this interval and, by extrapolation, we suggest
    that polar waters were generally warmer than 20 8C during the
    middle Cretaceous (,90 million years ago).

    https://s3.amazonaws.com/academia.edu.documents/46038517/nature0314320160529-27068-16y4yv9.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAIWOWYYGZ2Y53UL3A&Expires=1511745465&Signature=St0fxnHLMsQzbIywX%2Bao4hi%2Fz94%3D&response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3DHigh_temperatures_in_the_Late_Cretaceous.pdf

    1. Old, but interesting. TEX₈₆ has shown to be a less reliable temperature proxy, so the result has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

      In any case we are now living through an Ice Age, with huge ice sheets at both poles. That ain’t changing in any relevant time frame even to humankind. Perhaps in 5 million years there will be a different situation. The idea that those ice sheets are going away any time soon is bad science fiction. A lot more likely that in 30,000 years there will be ice sheets also over northern Canada and northern Scandinavia.

        1. You are the delusional one if you believe in that bad science fiction.

          It took the world 50 million years of cooling to get to one of the coldest periods in over 600 million years we are now. And you think a few years of warming and a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ are going to undo that.

          The ice isn’t going anywhere. Just watch. Even Arctic sea ice that probably disappeared during the summers of the Holocene Climate Optimum isn’t going to disappear during your lifetime. To think that the ice sheets are going anywhere is ludicrous. The little melting they are undergoing won’t make a dent in them. And eventually the warming will turn into a cooling as it always has done for the past 10,000 years. Interglacials are short unstable periods in a world that is most of the time glaciated, since the Pleistocene started.

          Source for the figure:
          https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1186

          1. Hi Javier,

            For all of the last 800,000 years, with the exception of the past 70 years, atmospheric CO2 has been below 310 ppm. Although there has been ice sheets on both Greenland and Antarctica for the past 11 million years (Antarctica only for the past 35 million years) we do not have a good estimate for the change in ice sheet mass over those periods.

            Yes temperature will rise and fall, it is the magnitude of those changes which is of concern. The magnitude is highly uncertain.

            https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/901

            The figure at the link above suggests 2 C temperature increase at 400ppm (early Pliocene)which implies an ESS of about 3.8C. For a World with ice sheets near early Pliocence size (not that different from today, perhaps a bit smaller as sea level was about 25 meters higher (due to a combination of higher global temperature and smaller ice sheets.)

          2. “The ice isn’t going anywhere” – Javier
            Lmfao dude you’re too much! Pure comedy gold.

      2. Hi Javier,

        From the last Glacial Maximum about 22,000 years BP to the HCO about 6,500 years before the present (BP) (about 15,500 years) the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets decreased to 1/10th their previous size. So your 5 million year estimate may be off by roughly a factor of 300. As to cooling the evidence from the past 800,000 years and the mainstream understanding of geochemistry and geophysics suggests that under an RCP4.5 scenario atmospheric CO2 will remain above 300 ppm for at least the next 80,000 years, so increased ice sheet size is not in the cards over the next 30,000 years, or at least not relative to the average of the past 10,000 years or so.

        See

        https://atmos.washington.edu/~aaron/docs/archer.2005.fate_co2.pdf

        or

        http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/geocarb/archer.2009.ann_rev_tail.pdf

        1. Hi Dennis, the Laurentide and Fenoscandian ice sheets are much easier to melt due to their lower latitude. They melt at every interglacial. The Greenland ice sheet doesn’t melt even during the warmest interglacials. Antarctica doesn’t melt at all. They are going to stay until the Ice Age is over.

          Archer has got it wrong.

          First, atmospheric CO₂ can go down rather fast. During the Younger Dryas from 270 ppm to 210 ppm in less than 200 years.

          Second, temperatures can go down from interglacial to glacial level without CO₂ levels changing. CO₂ cannot stop cooling. Post Eemian CO₂ at 270 ppm steady, temperatures dropping like a stone.

          1. Hi Javier,

            Stomata data is highly uncertain +/-50 ppm. In addition, the Archer analysis assumes there are no drastic changes such as those that might occur during a meltwater pulse. A shut down of the thermohaline circulation and a drop in water temperature might cause a temporary drop on CO2 (as CO2 is more soluble in cooler water).

          1. Hi Javier,

            That’s local temperature in Antarctica, we don’t have very good global estimates of temperature. Changes in Ocean circulation and weather patterns can cause local changes in temperature and the poles typically see greater changes in temperature.

  52. This calibration point implies an Equator-to-pole gradient in sea surface temperatures of
    ~15°C during this interval and, by extrapolation, we suggest that polar waters were generally warmer than 20°C during the middle Cretaceous (~90 million years ago).

    Yeah and that was just super for all the humans living around that time… /sarc

    Oh, and BTW just in case anyone cares… When copying and pasting text from old PDF files you sometimes get weird results due to old post script fonts not translating correctly.

    Typing the ° Degree Symbol. If you would like to make the ° symbol when typing, you can use these methods: On PCs – hold down the Alt key and on the numeric keypad on the right of the keyboard, type 0176, or Alt+ 248 When you release the Alt Key, a ° should be there.

    Note: I used the tilde for the ‘approximately’ symbol.

    1. Just think of the savings on the heating bills.:-)
      What are you worried about humans for, they get a beautiful planet then wreck it.

      “And daddy won’t you take me back to Muhlenberg County
      Down by the Green River where Paradise lay
      Well, I’m sorry my son, but you’re too late in asking
      Mister Peabody’s coal train has hauled it away

      Then the coal company came with the world’s largest shovel
      And they tortured the timber and stripped all the land
      Well, they dug for their coal till the land was forsaken
      Then they wrote it all down as the progress of man”

      3000 dead streams later West Virginia still is at it.

      1. Yeah . . .

        Every where I look, a video on bull catching in the Territory or Cape York, a video about swamp boats or duck hunting in Europe, a video about testing an engine in a line haul truck in the US as a background to the story I see systems in decline . . . can’t others see this?

        1. Hi Scrub,

          This long rant is not aimed at you, since you have the background to get it without having it explained to you in detail, as if you were a child. But a lot of people just don’t have the background knowledge necessary, and it’s for any of that sort who may read it.

          Most of us here see it, meaning the likelihood of economic and ecological collapse.

          Some of us believe it’s possible that we can avoid the worst consequences of our foolishness, and reverse course, thereby saving a substantial portion of Mother Nature’s one time gift of our one and only home.

          I’m one of the subset that believes this is possible, but that it’s unlikely, except maybe in certain areas, such as let us say my hypothetical “Fortress North America”, which would be very tightly allied to some of our oldest and best friends, such as Western Europe.

          Chance, the fall of the cards, is going to play as big a role in what happens as science, technology, and human stupidity.

          If I were a praying man of the sort who believes that God acts in mysterious ways, I would be praying for him to send us a series of Biblical scale disasters, stat, one right after another, until we come to our senses.

          I usually refer to these hypothetical disasters as “Pearl Harbor Wake Up Events” because Pearl Harbor is the one single easily universally known point in Yankee history at which we reversed course with a vengeance within a period of a few days. All our other crises built up over substantial periods of time until they finally boiled over resulting in war or something more or less equivalent to war except for the lack of physical violence.

          It’s altogether possible that we have collectively fucked up to the point that a planetary ecological and economic collapse is inevitable, but I am not personally convinced that this is NECESSARILY true.

          My current thinking runs along these lines:

          We have already done our planetary environment huge harm, and a hell of a lot more more not yet evident to a casual onlooker is baked in…….. but not necessarily enough to mean the end of civilization, of ” life as we know it” all over the world.

          In my estimation, it’s altogether possible and even likely that a few billion of us will die hard before this century is out, due to a lack of food and water, or due to violence brought on mostly as the RESULT of a lack of food and water. It’s going to be a race between the fast occurring depletion of top soil, water in the form of local rain and long distance irrigation water, fertilizer supplies, climate change, and so forth, on the one hand, and falling birth rates.

          It’s easy for me, as a farmer, to talk without passion about these things, because farmers deal with this same problem in managing their business year after year.

          If my apple trees set a huge crop, I get busy pulling off as many as two thirds of the little apples asap to SAVE THE TREES from physical destruction, breaking down, due to the excess weight, as well as to ensure that the remaining apples would grow to marketable size.

          If there was hay enough in the barn, I could keep more bred cows over winter, and watch their calves put on weight grazing on the new spring grass. If the hay crop was short………. off they went to be market.

          It’s not so easy to manage human populations. 🙁

          Now my problems as a farmer didn’t usually matter very much to other farmers a few hundred miles away, or even as close as a mile or two away sometimes. They could have a big crop, or lose theirs entirely to frost, while mine was ok, or the frost got MINE, and ten miles away some guys made plenty of hay because they got some lucky thunderstorms that missed my place, etc etc.

          The WORLD is more like a farming community than otherwise in some respects, with various COUNTRIES playing the role of individual farmers, and the various countries being affected by geography and climate/ weather in much the same way as geography and climate affect individual farmers.

          It’s rather likely that some places are going to suffer extreme drought within the next few decades, something comparable to the DUST BOWL, forced warming or no. If these places are already at or past their safe carrying capacity, well……… Maybe the people there will be able to import food from more fortunate places and countries, maybe they won’t. Food supplies are going to be getting tighter as time passes, you can take that to the bank.

          We just don’t know how the cards are going to fall, chance is going to play a huge role.

          I was personally extremely surprised by the fast decline in birth rates over the last couple of decades, and it’s altogether possible that this decline will continue. MAYBE only a few places and countries will suffer killer famines.

          Maybe we WON’T have too much in the way of hot wars as the result of economic and ecological collapse, which are not NECESSARILY going to be universal or world wide.

          I am not a fan of big government, but I recognize that government is often the ONLY solution. Government is the only solution to the climate problem in particular and the pollution problem in general. Government is the only solution to national security problems. Government level MANAGEMENT is likely going to be the only solution to humanitarian problems on the grand scale.

          Not many people on either the right or the left ever stop to think about just how POWERFUL government can be, if circumstances are such that the people are willing to get behind their government, and support it wholeheartedly.

          We Yankees got together and supported Uncle Sam during WWII. Australians did the same, supporting their own government.

          Things are headed TOWARD hell , world wide.

          But it’s possible we can at least slow down, and even reverse course in some countries, IF we are so fortunate as to come to our collective senses. THAT will happen, if we are lucky enough that we get a sufficient number of Pearl Harbor Wake Up Events before the situation deteriorates beyond our collective ability to respond effectively.

          We should all be praying to the personal snake, mountain, rock, river, tree, or Sky Daddy or Mommy of our choice for a series of WAKE UP events.

          Our BEST shot at getting the sort of government we need is that we have a couple of killer hurricanes, and a couple of killer floods, the biggest ones EVER, very soon, followed on by a few dozen of the biggest and baddest tornadoes ever, followed on by a new Dust Bowl, one that lasts a decade this time, etc, etc, followed by the failure of the Colorado River to flow enough to keep the farmers dependent on it producing, etc…….. with a similar series of disasters afflicting the rest of the world.

          The short to medium term costs of dealing with such disasters is trivial, compared to the cost we will be paying LATER if we don’t change our ways.

          I know at least a couple of drunks who changed their ways after suffering the loss of their families due to drinking, or nearly killing themselves in an automobile accident as the result of driving drunk. We can collectively change our ways….. given sufficient incentive, soon enough.

          Because otherwise……. if we don’t get them……….. we’re FUCKED.

          OFM aka Trumpster aka Proud Putineer aka aka KGB hacker aka the Forum Idiot aka the token forum conservative aka pervert aka child molester aka professional farmer has said so, and he rarely says things that are only his OPINIONS without qualifying his remarks as such…….. unless he is having a senior moment and forgets, lol.

          1. You may be right in much of what you say. However, this period of time exemplifies the tremendous disconnect between knowledge and action in general across much of the world. Not saying it’s a full disconnect, but it is a large and meaningful one.
            We can’t use political compromise on this one. We can’t ignore it and have better results. That is what is happening now.
            I doubt very much if calamities will really get people going, unless major cities start to go underwater quickly. Everything else just looks like the weather.

            1. Hi Gonefishing,

              I would think the peak in fossil fuels and rising prices may be a wake up call, if not the depression that might start around 2030 due in part to energy shortages might do it.

              Even without an acceptance of climate change maybe people will recognize that fossil fuels are limited and we need to move to other sources of energy.

              People are pretty dumb, but in general they will do what Churchill accused the Americans of doing:

              “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have tried everything else.”

              Hopefully we won’t spend too much time doing dumb stuff, but will choose to do the right thing.

            2. You are correct, hit them in the pocketbook and indicate that their beloved ICE’s will be restricted. That should get something moving.
              If we go into depression, that will limit our actions to improve. Best time to act is now and when things are going well. Churchill was right.

            3. Hi Gonefishing,

              I agree better to act now.

              A depression can be a wake up call. The last one lead to substantial changes in the US. Imagine if the US government recognized the need to spend on appropriate infrastructure to move us beyond fossil fuel to other types of energy, this would include rail, light rail, electrified buses on overhead wires, along with EVs. An upgrade of the grid with HVDC and interconnects between all the major grid networks would allow more renewable power with the ability to move the electricity where needed. Sometimes a crisis is needed to get people to think out of the box.

            4. Dennis that sounds like what candidate Bernie Sanders was talking about in his campaign when he said “We need to transform our energy system”. That would create a significant amount of economic activity that would surely benefit the US (global?) economy.

            5. Hi Islandboy,

              I didn’t follow Sanders closely enough to know if he had a detailed plan.

              There is little question a transition can occur.

              Whether we need a crisis to enable sufficient urgency to get moving remains to be seen.

              My guess is that the transition will be too slow until a crisis occurs.

              I hope I am wrong, and that Seba is right, but the realist in me sees a financial crisis in 10 to 15 years. Proper Keynesian policy with a focus on the needed infrastructure for an energy transition, might make such a crisis more like the GFC and less like the Great Depression.

              The reaction of the Eurozone nations to the GFC is worrisome, hopefully they learned something from their poor policy choices from 2008-2013.

            6. Hi GF,

              I strongly agree with your first two paragraphs.

              Depending on just what you mean by “major cities ” and “underwater” you may be right about whether calamities will get people going. If you mean underwater literally, due to rising sea levels, that sure as hell would be a giterdone calamity.

              If you mean it more in a figurative sense, such as large cities suffering economic collapse due to a lack of water resources, or the death of major industries, well….. I suppose it would then be a question of degree.

              At some point, things can and very likely will get bad enough to provide ample incentive for the people of this country to work together, and for some countries to work together.

              You may be right. We may not get our collective act act together soon enough to prevent a Biblical scale end of life as we know it collapse.

            7. I meant underwater, literally.
              Collapse comes in many forms. We are in a collapse now as far as many millions of people are concerned. The ones who don’t have much money, can’t access the benefits of a high tech society or good medical care and housing. Their world is getting worse not better.
              Collapse can be slow or in stages, but it is hardly ever seen very clearly in the beginning stages.

            8. “Collapse can be slow or in stages, but it is hardly ever seen very clearly in the beginning stages.”

              Dead on.

              I agree also that many millions of people are already suffering from collapse to varying degrees, with some dying, some living very tough lives.

              For what it’s worth, there’s an excellent argument to be made that so long as bau holds up, there’s a powerful trickle down effect that enables many and maybe eventually most poor people to eventually enjoy a hell of a lot of the fruits of technology and general prosperity.

              I live in an economic rural backwater, but I can’t think of anybody I know personally who doesn’t have indoor plumbing and electricity.The last people I knew personally in this situation either died or moved away or finally got these things at least ten years or so ago.

              Most of the people around here who are on welfare somehow manage to have satellite tv, and most of them have cars as well, even though their teeth are as likely as not falling out and their homes are often decrepit to the point they can be fairly described as slums. The ones without satellite tv almost all have dvd players, and tons of disks that they swap around .. these being available in great variety at local flea markets as cheap as fifty cents to a dollar.

              I still burn wood, both to save money and because I enjoy harvesting it and having a fire, but of the five or six people younger people nearest me who are literally living on tax money, not a one of them uses wood anymore. They’re all burning electrons or oil or gas.

              There are various easy tricks that enable people without provable cash income to pay for such things and still collect rental assistance, food stamps, free school lunches, and so forth.

              I’m not judging their priorities. I might be doing exactly the same in their shoes. Probably would be. If you’re stuck at home with nothing much in the way of intellectual resources, or useful hobbies, etc, well.. a couple of bucks a day for satellite tv is one hell of a bargain, a cheaper diversion from insanity level boredom than beer, or tobacco, or SOMA, or pot unless you grow your own.

              The biggest single failing of most people when it comes to understanding drugs and the use of drugs is ONE, that the people who are most apt to abuse them are seeking escape and pleasure, and TWO, that black market drugs are often dirt cheap compared to the other possible ways such people can escape the misery of their lives and enjoy themselves for a while.

            9. Think a little broader OFM. Think globally. Many of the poor people near you are living far better than most in the world.
              A new study in Environmental Science & Technology estimates six out of 10 people on planet Earth don’t have access to flush toilets or adequate water-related sanitation. In other words, 4.2 billion human beings desperately need a technology you use every day and couldn’t give less of a shit about.
              http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/02/22/_60_percent_of_the_world_population_still_without_toilets.html

              About 40 percent of the human population does not have piped water (called improved) or a source of piped water.

              This is the 21st century with planes and rockets flying overhead, yet large portions of the human population do not have what we think of as basic necessities. Millions die each year due to cooking pollution. Candles and kerosene provide some lighting, relatively expensive for them though. A large chunk of the global population has no electricity.

              The range of economic conditions is huge.
              The range of poverty is wide also.

      2. Before the Deluge

        Some of them were dreamers
        And some of them were fools
        Who were making plans and thinking of the future
        With the energy of the innocent
        They were gathering the tools
        They would need to make their journey back to nature
        While the sand slipped through the opening
        And their hands reached for the golden ring
        With their hearts they turned to each other’s hearts for refuge
        In the troubled years that came before the deluge

        Some of them knew pleasure
        And some of them knew pain
        And for some of them it was only the moment that mattered
        And on the brave and crazy wings of youth
        They went flying around in the rain
        And their feathers, once so fine, grew torn and tattered
        And in the end they traded their tired wings
        For the resignation that living brings
        And exchanged love’s bright and fragile glow
        For the glitter and the rouge
        And in a moment they were swept before the deluge

        Let the music keep our spirits high
        Let the buildings keep our children dry
        Let creation reveal its secrets by and by, by and by
        When the light that’s lost within us reaches the sky

        Some of them were angry
        At the way the earth was abused
        By the men who learned how to forge her beauty into power
        And they struggled to protect her from them
        Only to be confused
        By the magnitude of her fury in the final hour
        And when the sand was gone and the time arrived
        In the naked dawn only a few survived
        And in attempts to understand a thing so simple and so huge
        Believed that they were meant to live after the deluge

        Let the music keep our spirits high
        Let the buildings keep our children dry
        Let creation reveal it’s secrets by and by, by and by
        When the light that’s lost within us reaches the sky

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqfDpNymGSE&list=RDGqfDpNymGSE

      1. Alt + Shift + 8 in my keyboard.

        Or you can go the Unicode way and copy paste. Then you have lots of options.

        Superscript ⁰¹²³⁴⁵⁶⁷⁸⁹

        Subscript ₀₁₂₃₄₅₆₇₈₉

        ° δ Δ and many more.

        CO2 becomes CO₂, and delta-14C becomes Δ¹⁴C.

    1. Yeah, let’s go back to incandescents and halogen bulbs, much cheaper, use less energy and produce no light pollution whatsoever! /sarc

      My own experience with LEDs is that my electricity bill has dropped considerably.
      Maybe the problem isn’t LEDs, it might be too many stupid people on the planet.
      who don’t know how to turn off the lights…

      1. Turning off the light would not even be neccessary.

        When the nearby soccer court turns the LED lights on, I can read a newspaper sitting on my front porch. With the previous whatever-they-used I didn’t even notice there was a soccer court being illuminated.

        Street lighting with LED is an entirely different thing though.
        It’s far easier on the eyes compared to the old flourescent or sodium lights and always delivers the light exactly where it’s needed and nowhere else.

        Apparently public lighting is being done by professionals while private/commercial lighting seems to follow the “light up anything”-approach used by idiots.

        1. I have mixed feelings about this. LED street lights are better than the old sodium lights but the latest generation HP Sodium were better. The two we had that were in the streets next to my house sent all the light down to the road with very little side spill. Their predecessors even lit up the terrace on top of my house, I could take photos by the light. The new LED lights have made me put up a tarpaulin to block out the light as they spill light out to just about horizontal. This is bad design as the direct light into your eyes cuts the contrast in the street. Bad design, the light should be directed down, not sideways.

          The real culprits are the ‘perfissunals’ who specify and go ‘ooohhh-aaahhh’ at the new lights and the cutting of costs in the reduced maintenance (not electricity) of the LED lights. Places such as Paris have taken more care in specifying their lights. It is the overall planning that is needed to cut light spill, blue light and unused light. The efficiency of the whole system needs to be improved and not just the individual light source. LEDs with less blue are available and I expect these to become more common but the real change must be putting lights just where they are needed, when they are needed, cut vanity lighting and the huge amounts of light wasted in unoccupied buildings.

          Your football court does not need to light your house or be lit when not in use. If the wasted light was directed onto the court then less lighting would be needed leading to further savings.

          NAOM

          1. You are talking about lamp design, not LED or HPS. Two very different things. The reflectors can concentrate or disperse the light depending on design, so it is the lamp shape design, angle of placement and choice of the purchaser/installer that is causing light to intrude outside the targeted space.
            You are right, much light is wasted by poor placement and fixture design.
            I remember when streetlamps were low power and had reflectors all around that aimed the light downward only, lighting up the street corner in a nice glow, not the neighborhood. But then we did a lot of things smarter back then. Now it’s almost anything goes.

            There are also higher losses in the ballast and trapped light in the HPS lamps.

      2. It’s poor science and fake news.
        There is nothing relating the actual energy used to the study.
        The idea behind switching to LED’s is to reduce energy use, which they do by six times or more. They were not implemented to reduce night pollution. The study showed a 2.2% global increase in light per year which is not even the gain in light output when you change to an LED bulb of equivalent wattage (LED’s often shine brighter than their equivalent incandescent bulbs.)

        Plus there is no baseline or normal rate of outdoor lighting growth discussed. There is no relationship determined to increasing population and economic growth of lighting power use with time. There is no real relationship to energy used.
        The sensors used were not able to access the blue light band.
        Very poor and unscientific study as well as worse reporting.

        Poor science, fake news. Merely an indicator that further, in depth studies need to be done concerning light pollution. The energy use postulate is false.

        Now concerning the shift to a broader spectrum light and shift to the blue end of the spectrum, that is an area that needs strong studies. Animals and especially insects are sensitive to blue light. Insects are attracted to blue light (which is why the use of yellow light does not attract many insects at night). Many animals see into the ultraviolet, so the shift to blue can be disturbing the life cycles and habits of much of the animal kingdom.
        Now weigh this against the actual energy saved and reduced pollution effects on the animal kingdom. That would be a worthwhile set of studies.

        But what it all comes down to is changing from 18 lumens per watt to 300 or more lumens per watt. That is a 16 times improvement which no amount of “extra” use will dent.

        1. TKS, GF!
          I pretty much suspected all that but didn’t want to take the time to actually debunk another batch of fake news. Dealing with Javier was painful enough. I now have him back on ignore… I really need to pack it up and go live in some remote fishing village in Northern Brazil for my remaining years. I just don’t have the patience to deal with idiots any more…
          Cheers!
          BTW, another problem with light pollution is sea turtle nesting season but it seems we’ve had a pretty good year.

          1. Fred — “I just don’t have the patience to deal with idiots any more…”

            I agree having pretty much reached same conclusion. Guess it’s back to pulsars and their kin for this dude leaving Fish, Survivalist, George and a couple of others to deal with the morons. Hate to see Blog hijacked by idiots but I suppose its inevitable.

            Cheers,

            1. Everyone’s definition of an idiot is different. As long as they don’t harm you it’s no big deal anyway. 🙂

            2. At least some are still fighting the good fight! Here’s to hoping they win!

              This teacher’s guide is a direct response to the absolute bullshit put out by the Heartland Institute, Koch Brothers funded, anti science propaganda that was distributed to schools recently in an attempt to sow doubt on the scientific consensus about anthropogenic induced climate change!

              It was published by the Paleontological Research Institition.

              http://www.priweb.org/publications/pubdetails.php?pubID=5813&back=catID%3D51%26buy%3D2

              The Teacher-Friendly Guide™ to Climate Change is the newest addition to our Teacher-Friendly series. This book includes both the basics of climate change science and perspectives on teaching a subject that has become socially and politically polarized. The focus audience is high school Earth science and environmental science teachers, and it is written with an eye toward the kind of information and graphics that a secondary school teacher might need in the classroom. Print copies are available for purchase here and a PDF version is available above as a free download.
              Teach Climate Science is a fundraiser designed to distribute TFG Climate Change nationwide. Help us spread the word by donating on our fundraiser page. You can also visit our blog, where the TFG Climate Change PDF is presented chapter by chapter and where we are also posting resources about climate change and science education.

              Free Download here:
              http://www.priweb.org/files/pubtext/TFG-ClimateChange-Complete.pdf

          2. Yes, the J-Bird Troll is allowed to dump all over this site. Several others are bringing in questionable or wrong ideas and information, which is fine once in a while, but when it becomes a mainstay of the blog then it needs some cleaning.

        2. Here is the paper:
          http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/11/e1701528.full

          (A Science publication, one of the big three science publications)

          Christopher C. M. Kyba1,2,*, Theres Kuester1, Alejandro Sánchez de Miguel3,4,†, Kimberly Baugh5, Andreas Jechow1,2, Franz Hölker2, Jonathan Bennie6, Christopher D. Elvidge7, Kevin J. Gaston8 and Luis Guanter1
          1GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam 14473, Germany.
          2Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin 12587, Germany.
          3Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, Glorieta de la Astronomía s/n, Granada C.P. 18008, Spain.
          4Dept. Astrofísica y CC. de la Atmósfera, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid 28040, Spain.
          5Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
          6Centre for Geography, Environment and Society, University of Exeter, Penryn TR10, UK.
          7National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
          8Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK.

          So NOAA is fake news?

          1. They downloaded the data from NOAA, that is all. NOAA did not provide the news either so what is your point?
            The DNB cloud-free monthly composites for the month of October in 2012–2016 were downloaded from NOAA (41). These data include only overpasses for which clouds were not present (based on observations by infrared channels on the same instrument), and the total number of overpasses therefore differs between pixels. In a few areas, some pixels are so persistently covered by clouds that no cloud-free observations are available in a given month. In this case, the area was removed from all the analyses presented here.

            Read my comment again. I list all the errors. You have a problem with any of those, we can discuss it.

            1. I agree it is not energy centric, but emphasizes light pollution.
              Science editors are some of the most stringent and careful in the publishing business, and have numerous levels of peer review.
              They obviously looked at the with a fine tooth comb.
              I hope no one got the impression that I’m anti LED– if there is a socket, I’ve put a LED into it (except in my pump house, where a incandescent helps keep the pipes from freezing).

            2. They missed the grand leap of illogic tying LED energy use to the study. It smells of agenda.

  56. It’s altogether possible, and looking more likely from one week to the next, that the D’s will regain control of both the House and the Senate in the upcoming mid term elections. Things have never looked worse within my lifetime for a newly elected president, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that things are going to get even worse for Trump over the next few months. 😉

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-december-could-make-or-break-the-trump-presidency

    “Year one is when Presidents usually make their mark, especially if they came into office with unified control of the government, as Trump and his party did. ”

    Trump has nothing to show for his first year.

    “By the second year, a President’s legislative agenda becomes complicated by the hesitancy of members of Congress to take risky votes as midterm elections approach, particularly if a President is unpopular. The math is stark: on average, modern Presidents have historically lost thirty House seats and four Senate seats in their first midterm elections.”

    That along with a few Republicans who will survive the mid terms but who have a Trump knife or two sticking out of their backs will be MORE THAN ENOUGH to put the monkey in a cage, and pretty much put a stop to the R’s doing great harm via the legislative route for the rest of his term. It’s enough to make Trump’s SUCCESSFUL impeachment a VERY real possibility. 😉

    The next couple of paragraphs of this article outline the accomplishments of other recent presidents during their first year or so.

    Then

    “Trump’s first year has been different. He has a record low approval rating. He is mired in scandal. And he, so far, has no major legislative accomplishments. He looks like a President in his eighth year rather than one in his first.”

    The remainder of the article mostly describes the sort of deals the D’s may cut with the R’s in order to prevent a government shutdown. I hope the D’s play their cards well. I’m going to be doing my own part by educating a number of Trump voters concerning the SPECIFIC ways the R’s are fucking them over, especially in terms of their health care problems.

    I’m thinking I can convert at least half a dozen who are in fear of their very lives, or who are doing without other things in order to pay for overpriced prescription drugs, etc.

  57. The real reason Tesla is developing the Semi?

    Tesla Semi Will Transport Cargo Between Fremont And Gigafactory

    The Tesla Semi will begin to prove itself by hauling loads between the automaker’s factory in Fremont, California, and the Gigafactory near Reno, Nevada.

    The four-hour trek from Fremont to Reno (~260 miles) is a monumental expense for Tesla. It’s also something that’s unavoidable since the two factories work hand-in-hand to build Tesla’s vehicles. This is especially true with regards to the Model 3, and the Gigafactory was discovered to be the site of a bulk of the “bottleneck” issues. Having a reliable and regular form of inexpensive transportation between the two sites is key.
    Tesla Semi

    Tesla may have planned the electric semi partly for its own benefit. However, once other companies see its successful deployment, it should increase its appeal. Musk has made comments in the past about the pain and expense of moving loads between the two factories, and when batteries are involved, we’re not talking about light loads here. Now, Tesla will be able to do it much more cheaply, and without tailpipe emissions.

    Jerome Guillen, Tesla’s VP of Trucks, confirmed that the automaker will be utilizing the semis to move cargo between the two sites. Guillen was speaking about the Tesla Semi at a recent conference in the Netherlands. He shared (via Electrek):

    “We will use our own truck to carry cargo in the US between our different facilities. We have an assembly facility in California, the Gigafactory in Nevada, so we will use our trucks to carry things in-between.”

    Brilliant!

    1. I suspect you will see them quickly purposed for mobile Tesla showrooms and service centers also.

    2. Nice when you can invent your own transport, make it cheaper and have other people pay for it as they buy the trucks. Later a profit even, so Tesla will essentially have no transport costs and make a profit. Also, they reduce pollution and lower energy use.

      1. I visited Lake Tahoe while on a visit to the Sacramento area in September 2014 and driving up I-80 from Rocklin, it was uphill most of the way, probably for about an hour. Tesla could have their Semis leave the Gigafactory with a full load of batteries for example and have them charged up just enough to get them from the Gigafactory up to the crest of the Sierra Nevada mountains between Reno and Sacramento.

        It may well be that the trucks would recover enough energy coming down the mountains to carry them from the foot of the mountains to the plant in Freemont. It would have the added advantage of being able to use regenerative braking instead of friction brakes to come down the mountain. What’s not to like?

        1. Sounds like the solution the railroads had in many cases. The mines were often up on hills so the heavy loads went downhill and the light empties go up.

    3. Only until the Boring company and Hyperloop join up. Direct delivery, factory to factory.

      NAOM

    4. If they are planning on using Tesla semi’s to deliver batteries, they can rig up some jumper cables, rolling on the floor at the thought, and charge up the cargo, and put the hammer down maybe all the way across the country, if they really can get twenty tons net on the Tesla semi.

      But I’m thinking an electric TRAIN will still be the most efficient and practical means of moving heavy freight long distances…….. where tracks are available.

      I’m not up on the increase in net load made possible by adding an axle or two, under both the tractor and the trailer, but I’m thinking twenty three or twenty four tons net is routine in the industry . You just add wheels to your eighteen wheeler,making it into a twenty twenty two or even a twenty four wheeler.

      1. Mac,
        California maximum weight is 80k. Special permits are required for more. Sometimes more axles lets loads that are impossible otherwise, meet axle limits, but still subject to the 80k gross.
        Google “Michigan gravel train” for some pics of lots of axles. MI still allows 164k in-state on eleven axles. Highest state limit in the US. This info was current when I quit trucking in 2009, could have changed since. Doesn’t matter to me anymore.

        1. Hi Stanley,

          Virginia and NC also allow higher weights when trucks are equipped with extra axles. I used to know how much extra cargo you could get on board legally this way but like you I have forgotten and it doesn’t matter to me anymore.

          1. The Federal Bridge Gross Weight Formula, also known as Bridge Formula B or the Federal Bridge Formula, is a mathematical formula in use in the United States by truck drivers and Department of Transportation (DOT) officials to determine the appropriate maximum gross weight for a commercial motor vehicle (CMV) based on axle number and spacing. The formula is part of federal weight and size regulations regarding interstate commercial traffic (intrastate traffic is subject to state limits). The formula is necessary to prevent heavy vehicles from damaging roads and bridges. CMVs are most often tractor-trailers or buses, but the formula is of most interest to truck drivers due to the heavy loads their vehicles often carry.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Bridge_Gross_Weight_Formula

  60. US Truck Drivers Brace for the Bot Onslaught
    https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/us-truck-drivers-brace-for-the-bot-onslaught/

    Driver safety and the psychology of risk
    http://www.cbc.ca/radio/spark/310-the-changing-entertainment-media-landscape-the-psychology-of-risk-and-more-1.3442332/driver-safety-and-the-psychology-of-risk-1.3442462

    Manufacturing Manager: Hey Walter, how are you going to get those new manufacturing robots to pay your union dues?

    Walter Reuther: How are you going to get them to buy your cars?

    1. Thanks,
      To my ears, (eyes?) that’s a sad assessment of the future for a sizeable segment of my class of folks. Oh well, it will probably happen slowly and they can draw unemployment for up to 26 weeks in most states. Three states near me only offer 12 to 14 weeks, but hey, that just means they can get off their asses and re-train for their new jobs that much quicker.
      The ex-truckers will have one advantage over most other laid-off workers though. Maybe we could figure out how to use that against them, maybe cut their unemployment comp to a week or so. That advantage? They already know where all the bridges are! Yep! If they paid attention while they were driving, they will remember where the climate was good in winter, summer, etc. Which overpasses were at off ramps where convenience stores are located. Be a handy spot for begging, then stumble on over to the store for a bottle of MD 20/20, then back under the bridge.

      Seriously, I do understand that the social aspects of new technology has no seat at the table when discussing such. If it’s new and considered to be high-tech, it’s a done deal as long as there’s profit to be made. That’s humans for you. Ain’t we great? Bigly so!

      Stan

      1. Even a minor concerted effort by displaced people could bring much of civilization to a halt.

      2. GoneFishing and Survivalist,

        Your comments made me think a bit further about the subject of displaced people. Please refrain in future, as that makes my head hurt. LOL

        Actually, I appreciate it. As far as those displaced folks (which could have included me, except for the fact that I got old quick enough to retire ahead of the game) making a concerted effort at anything, I don’t think that will happen as long as the cable/sat TV is on, and there’s food to be had from some source other than serious thieving.

        I thought I knew what a Luddite was, but read the wiki link and realized that I really didn’t have a good understanding of their motives. Now I guess you could call me a Luddite in spirit, but not willing to go on a tech-killing spree. It’s quite easy to see who won those battles in the past.

        Then I looked up a bit of commentary on a later version of civil unrest, the Arab Spring uprisings. I think the US has a ways to go before that type uprising can happen here, if it will at all. Things are still much better here for most of the poor people, if I understand right. Of course that brings back to mind another of my favorite sayings concerning the economic situation, “A recession is when your neighbor is out of work, a depression is when you’ve lost YOUR JOB!”

        One other fact that caught my attention was where most of the Arab riots started. At the mosques, at the usual Friday gatherings. Also the fact that the religion doesn’t seem to prohibit violent action. I think a key difference between there and here, is that the Christian religion is supposedly non-violent, at least as long as you can ignore or excuse all the killing and mayhem in the old testament. Along with the fact that a large part of the US po’-folk still claim to be Christian. And the idea that I was taught, namely that the great judge was gonna fry most, nearly all, of his creation.

        Then, to make matters worse, the very same political party that most of these ‘po-folks support, is the party of the rich, ruling class that’s keeping them down, while claiming to be the religious/moral party. Although in fairness to all parties, I’ll have to say that I don’t think it really matters very much which party is in power.

        Even though I’m an Atheist, I do believe at least one verse in the KJV of that book of tales and stuff. I’m not going to the trouble to look it up, and never could remember chapter and verse numbers like a good preacher, but I remember it as “the poor you will always have with you.” Goddammit ain’t it true, Bro Roy?

        I’ve been spilling my unasked opinion here a bit lately, and I think it might be a good time for me to hush. Over the last several years I’ve learned a lot of what I came here to learn, and appreciate the free education.

        As far as being proactive concerning the various problems and predicaments present and approaching, I think we will just continue to be goddam humans, doing what goddam humans do, till we can’t do it anymore, then do something else or nothing. Within that description of action is a wide variation of individual actions, including but not limited to, screaming and yelling about everything going to hell, quietly cleaning up one’s own act, calmly reassuring ourselves that it’s all good, and last but probably most prevalent, going on without understanding much of anything.

        Later,
        Stan

  61. This one’s for Clueless

    “OFM – ALL farmers steal money!! ALL farmers cheat on their taxes.!! There is not an HONEST farmer living in the United States.
    They all suck off the government teat – i.e., non-farmers. There is no more corrupt group of people in the entire world, including the Mafia. F— Off with Trump types – you are the Trump types.”

    I’m inclined to think you are mixing humor and sarcasm, but you may be serious in part.

    I know a couple of hot young lesbian farmers ( WHAT A WASTE, so both the girls and guys say about the opposite sex in such cases ) who would be pretty quick to whip out a stock man’s knife and use it on anybody dumb enough to call THEM Trumpsters, lol. If you don’t know what a stockman’s knife is used for…….. Lorena Bobbit substituted scissors, lol.

    I drop in to visit with them occasionally. We’ll likely be working together occasionally , maybe on a phone bank or providing rides to likely D voters next election.

    Did you actually mean to say all farmers are Trumpsters? Or only that I’m personally a Trumpster?

    It’s true that a LOT of farmers benefit from various government handouts or subsidies. It’s also true that there are countless other professions that likewise benefit from such handouts.

    Call us crooks and bums, that’s ok. But call us the MOST SUCCESSFUL of all the crooks in the world, the crookedest of the crooked, now that’s laying it on a little thick, lol.

    Modesty demands that I disagree at least to the extent of saying banksters, big pharma, and a few other industries are at least in the running for the title of the crookedest crook.

  62. It’s altogether surprising what you can learn in the most unexpected places.

    There’s apparently a debate going on in France right now with some of the feminists arguing for the age of consent being set at fifteen, some other parties as low as twelve or thirteen.

    The most surprising thing to me at least is that up until now at least, there doesn’t appear to BE a clearly established age of consent in France , if Pruden is telling it like it is. Some men have had charges dismissed for having sex with little girls because coercion couldn’t be proven. I haven’t fact checked this claim, but he’s generally solid on material or concrete facts.

    http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/pruden112417.php3

    It’s good to know how the rest of the world thinks about such things. Perspective is always good.

  64. You heard it here 1st. Tesla Truck Announcement totally sucks (for now) !
    There is no spare Battery capacity for Trucks yet. The Tesla Powerwall was killed for many reasons. (The AC Powerwall is not a battery, unavailable for Integrators and incompatible with most everything – only the eggheads in California can switch it on over the internet – it’s total ADS Absolute Dog Squeeze) There IS NOT YET cell production capacity for the current EV demand much less trucks. The the lions share of type NCA 18650’s is necessary for Model S and Vaping demand! A single Truck would mean not selling Model S’s or hundreds of nonexistant Powerwall’s.

    “It was assumed that Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs) would be the consumers’ preference as this would address range anxiety and concerns over recharging times. However, pure EVs are outselling PHEVs by a ratio of more than three to two, implying more oil displacement and greater electricity usage than anticipated.”
    http://blogs.platts.com/2017/11/27/teslas-e-truck-matters/
    No reason to buy a residential PV system that requires a Grid or Batteries to function! It’s immoral and unnecessary to take more than 10% pure PV (or any type of power production) and convert it to eChemicals and back.

  65. Another reason that Grid Tie only PV systems may turnout to be like Forrest Gump — like a box of chocolates on a 2 legged stool.
    https://southeastenergynews.com/2017/11/27/floridas-growing-reliance-on-natural-gas-may-put-ratepayers-at-risk/
    FWIW – Capital “PV” is a term for PHOTOVOLTAICS recognized in the 2017 NEC National Electric Code. Likely saved hundreds of pages of print. “NG” as in NATURAL GAS is NOT recognized!
    A Standard “250 watt” PV Module is ~ 1m x 1.6m these days.
    Average ratings have eclipsed 250w as you can see by spec sheet.
    http://www.lg.com/us/business/download/resources/BT00002151/BT00002151_3011.pdf

  66. New Subject

    I have a proposal. I want an amendment to the Constitution which prohibits the use of the word “sacred” in any legal proceeding whatsoever – EVER.

    We have separation of government and religion. However, there is widespread abuse of that. Anytime that someone wants to claim the supposed moral high ground, they divert to “sacred” claims. This is sacred ground; this is sacred water; that is a sacred place; this is a sacred animal; all designed to link the subject to some God that has given them some right, which somehow is above any right that you have because their right came from God.

    The Oahe Dam was constructed by the corps of engineers in the 1960’s just north of Pierre, South Dakota. Since then, it has backed up water [Missouri River] all the way into North Dakota, creating the Oahe lake there. But, of course, all of that lake water is now “sacred” since it is the site of “sacred” rituals. So, we are all supposed to feel as if somehow we are desecrating the “sacred” rights of some people.

    Basically, 100% of the land and water on earth [yes, the entire earth, every square inch] is being claimed as sacred by someone.

    Let’s end this nonsense with a Constitutional Amendment that just clarifies the separation of church and state by throwing out any court case in which any party refers to a “sacred” right.

    1. Yes, the whole earth is sacred. Whatever the god might be, somebody is mumbling words and taking action to protect their sacred area. The biggest sacred area is money and property. People do the most horrendous things to protect their sacred rights to money and property.

  67. Global carbon dioxide emissions projected to rise after three stable years

    By the end of 2017, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry are projected to rise by about 2% compared with the preceding year, with an uncertainty range between 0.8% and 3%. The news follows three years of emissions staying relatively flat.
    That’s the conclusion of the 2017 Global Carbon Budget, published 13 November by the Global Carbon Project (GCP) in the journals Nature Climate Change,
    https://phys.org/news/2017-11-global-carbon-dioxide-emissions-stable.html

    1. What’s interesting about this -following how the swamp started getting drained this year- is how CO2 is becoming looked at in very positive ways within the government science agencies. Therefore you have to consider a raise maybe being good news. Here is a real quote from NASA I am using to prove my point. The fact here is now they say CO2 is a natural thermostat that actually cools planet earth.

      “Carbon dioxide and nitric oxide are natural thermostats,” explains James Russell of Hampton University, SABER’s principal investigator. “When the upper atmosphere (or ‘thermosphere’) heats up, these molecules try as hard as they can to shed that heat back into space.”

      1. The mass of the thermosphere is only 0.002% of the total atmosphere. We are talking 1 to 15 E-12 kg/m3. the density of air at sea level is 1.3 kg/m3.
        Plus heat is sent in all directions, the molecules do not know which direction they are emitting nor do they “try” to cool the planet. Molecules merely absorb energy and reradiate it at random in all directions. A portion of the radiation goes to space.

        Although the thermosphere is considered part of Earth’s atmosphere, the air density is so low in this layer that most of the thermosphere is what we normally think of as outer space. In fact, the most common definition says that space begins at an altitude of 100 km (62 miles), slightly above the mesopause at the bottom of the thermosphere. The space shuttle and the International Space Station both orbit Earth within the thermosphere! from UCAR

      2. Dammit Raymond, thanks!

        I only have a high-school education, but I did take chemistry, physics, and biology in that poor-ass county school. Probably slept through the day they explained how molecules try really hard to do things.

        To show my appreciation for their efforts I’m gonna try to remember from now on, anytime I meet a CO2 molecule, to shake it’s hand and say, “thank you for your service”.

        That goes along with another of my pet peeves (I got lots of pets, it’s cheap), and that is when the weatherperson says, ” temps will struggle to reach …… ” Goddammit man, I don’t know much, but I know more than that!

        I’ll hush now, carry on.

        Stan

      4. We live in the Troposphere and are affected by the CO2 there. You are talking about the Thermosphere where satellites etc live.

        Troll

        NAOM

        1. The internet was supposed to make it easier for people to find stuff out, but it just seems to encourage them to think they know stuff, and spew out the crap they don’t know.

        2. I find it somewhat sad that these schmucks actually believe that their buffoon in chief is actually draining any swamp. He is replacing people (“liberals”) who in most cases were accountable to the people who paid them (taxpayers) with FF, Wall St., Pharma and other big industry puppets, who are accountable to the people who pay them (wealthy corporations). He promised to get rid of Washington lobbyists but is doing it in a somewhat unexpected way. With the set of corporate whores he continues to appoint, the groups that used to spend big on lobbying don’t even have to bother anymore! The foxes are firmly in control of the hen house!

    1. It did, and will in the future.
      Meanwhile, Vlad The Bad continues to control the minds of the ‘Merikin Proletariat.

      He even does it from his pet bear:

    1. Brought to you by the agency that constantly underestimated PV deployment in their forecasts by at least one order of magnitude…

Comments are closed.