Department of Economics, University of Utah
E-mail: minqi.li@economics.utah.edu
July 2018
This is Part 2 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This part of the Annual Report provides updated analysis of world oil production and consumption, evaluates the future prospect of world oil supply and considers the implications of peak oil production for global economic growth.
(See Figure 18 near end of paper) Read More
It was expected by many, me included but more importantly UKOGA and a couple of the bigger oil and gas consultancies, that UK offshore oil production would increase significantly from 2017 to exceed 1000 kbpd for the yearly average in 2018. So far this is proving a bit of a challenge. March production was 934 kbpd, down 7% m-o-m and 2% y-o-y (but up 0.8% for the first quarter compared with 2017). It’s possible that some fields have not reported but those showing zero for the month are not big producers. The biggest single field drop came from Clair but most fields saw declines, even the newer ones. Jodi data indicates there will be a rise shown for April to slightly above 1000 kbpd and then a fall back to around March numbers in May (note edit based on July Jodi data); there is usually a summer dip because of maintenance shutdowns (plus this year some strikes at Total platforms will impact).
Two of the largest oil producers, Buzzard and the Golden Eagle Area Development, both operated by Nexen, have started accelerated decline following increasing water breakthrough (especially noticeable in GEAD over the past year). The newest large field is Scheihallion. This is a redevelopment with its neighbouring field, Loyal, through the Glen Lyon FPSO (also called the Quad 204 project), which was started last year. So far the combined decline in Buzzard and GEAD is almost matching growth in Scheihallion.
The Clair Ridge platforms, which will also exploit the remaining heavy oil in the Clair field, were installed last year but there have been multiple delays and production is not now expected until later this year. Once it is ramped up, which could take three or four years despite it having some predrilled wells, the project will be the largest producer at 100 to 120 mmbpd and has an eight year plateau, while Scheihallion/Loyal will plateau and decline quickly.
This is Part 1 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This author has developed world energy annual reports that have been posted at Peak Oil Barrel since 2014. The purpose of this Annual Report is to provide updated analysis of the current development of world energy production and consumption, consider possible scenarios of world energy supply over the 21st century, and evaluate their implications for global economic growth and climate change. This year’s Annual Report includes multiple parts:
Part 1 World Energy 2018-2050
Part 2 World Oil 2018-2050
Part 3 World Natural Gas 2018-2050
Part 4 World Coal 2018-2050
Part 5 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Climate Change 2018-2100
Part 1 summarizes the general findings of this year’s World Energy Annual Report. Given the currently available information, world oil production is projected to peak in the early 2020s, world natural gas production is projected to peak in the 2030s, and world coal production is projected to peak in the late 2020s. Wind and solar power is projected to grow rapidly and account for about one-third of the world energy supply by the mid-21st century. Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energies, global energy supply and economic growth are expected to decelerate over the coming decades. By the mid-21st century, the energy-constrained global economic growth rates may not be sufficient to ensure economic and political stability for the existing world system. Although world carbon dioxide emissions are projected to peak before 2030, cumulative carbon dioxide emissions over the 21st century will be sufficient to result in global warming by more than two degrees Celsius relative to the pre-industrial time (assuming there will be no large-scale carbon sequestration programs).
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This is NOT a non-petroleum open thread, see post below for those comments.
Comments on oil and natural gas output should be in this thread, thank you.
The views expressed in this post are those of the author alone.
This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available here. As such it uses that review’s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components.
Figure 1: World Oil Production 1990 – 2017
This analysis was prompted by a chart by Ovi showing that Non-OPEC production less Russia, Canada and the United States has been in decline since 2004. That decline rate is 0.25 million barrels/day/annum. It had previously risen strongly from 1990. Read More
