World Oil Production – Page 12

Peak Oil and Plug-in Vehicles

02/05/201711/14/2019 D Coyne 220 Comments

Oil output (crude plus condensate or C+C) is likely to peak by 2020 (or may have peaked already in 2015 or 2016). Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Plugin hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may allow about 40% of current oil consumption to be substituted with electricity, under the simplifying assumption that the use of oil based fuels in PHEVs is minimal due to high oil prices. It is assumed here that high oil prices are the likely result of the decline in oil output. I have modified my medium oil scenario with slightly higher extraction rates, shown in the chart below.

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IEA Oil Market Report- December 2016

01/01/201701/01/2017 D Coyne 243 Comments

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The IEA released highlights for the December Oil Market report in mid December. I have used information from the November report and assumed OPEC crude output will be 32.7 Mb/d and non OPEC output will be 500 kb/d below the November report supply estimate. I have also used the demand estimates from the December highlights. Read More

Projection Of World Fossil Fuel URR

11/24/201610/29/2019 D Coyne 198 Comments

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An interesting paper was published by S.H. Mohr, J. Wang , G. Ellem , J. Ward , and D. Giurco in Feb 2015 entitled, Projection of world fossil fuels by country. It updates Steve Mohr’s earlier work in 2010 and can be found at the link below.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Steve_Mohr

World Oil Reserves

10/10/201610/13/2016 Ron Patterson 174 Comments

Rystad Energy has published an interesting article claiming that the US has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia… if you include shale oil.

A new independent estimate of world oil reserves has been released by Rystad Energy, showing that the US now holds more recoverable oil reserves than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. For US, more than 50% of remaining oil reserves is unconventional shale oil. Texas alone holds more than 60 billion barrels of shale oil according to this new data.

I will not quote the entire article for copyright reasons but would invite you to go there and check it out. Their final total, their 2PCX reserves, includes undiscovered fields.

rystad-2pcx

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Mexico, China and Beyond

09/20/201609/20/2016 Ron Patterson 203 Comments

This is a guest post by David Archibald. The opinions expressed in this post do not necessarily represent those of Dennis Coyne or Ron Patterson

Mexico, China and Beyond

Ron Patterson’s post asking if China’s oil production has peaked reminded me of Mexico
which also produces mainly from supergiant fields. Mexico’s oil production peaked in 2004 and has averaged a 3.5 percent per annum decline rate since, with a peak yearly decline rate of 9 percent in 2008. China’s oil production has fallen 10% from its peak in 2015. Part of that is oil price-related as the Daqing oil field has an operating cost of $46 per barrel and could reverse as the oil price rises. The comparison of China and Mexico with a projection to 2023 is shown in the following figure:

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