All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. After the production charts, an analysis of three EIA monthly reports that project future US production is provided. The charts below are updated to December 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.
All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly. In addition, information from other EIA offices is provided to project future US output. At the end, an analysis of a few different EIA reports is undertaken.
The charts below are updated to November 2019 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d).
The latest data from the January EIA report shows that US production surged by 203 kb/d in November to reach a new high of 12,879 kb/d. Since June the US has increased output by an average of 164 kb/d/mth. Looking forward to December production, the January Monthly Energy Review (MER) estimates US production for December to be 12,861 kb/d, down 14 kb/d from November and shown in red as the last data point.
If the MER is correct for December at 12,861 kb/d, that means that the January 2020 STEO is too high in their output prediction. They estimate December output to be 12,967 kb/d, 106 kb/d too high.
In the discussion here I use the term net volume to refer to
the volume of prospective rock that might be developed to produce tight
oil. For each bench of a prospective
tight oil play (Wolfcamp A would be one example of a bench) there is an area
estimate (5733 thousand acres for Wolfcamp A of Delaware) and a success ratio
(%) = 94.7, in the case of Wolfcamp A.
Net acres are the total acres times the success ratio, for Wolfcamp A,
5429 thousand net acres. On average the
Wolfcamp A of the Delaware basin is about 400 feet thick, so the net volume
would be net acres times thickness or 2172 million acre-feet. An acre-foot is a volume that is one acre
(44,000 square feet) by one foot thick or 44,000 cubic feet (or a box that is
1000 ft long by 44 feet wide by 1 foot high.)