The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published recently, the estimate for World C+C output from October 2024 to December 2026 in the chart below is based on crude oil estimates in the STEO for World minus US C+C output and the trend in the ratio of the STEO crude estimates and C+C estimates from the EIA’s International Energy Statistics for World minus US C+C output from Jan 2018 to September 2024. For the next 5 charts the horizontal and vertical scales are the same, with 9 years on the horizontal axis and 16000 kb/d from the lowest to highest values on the vertical axis. The thin line represents monthly data or forecasts after September 2024 and the markers with labels show the average annual output for each year.
Last month’s estimate for average annual output in 2025 was 83467 kb/d using a similar methodology, so the STEO forecast has been revised lower for 2025, this STEO is the first to forecast through December 2026.
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