The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published recently. An estimate for World C+C output from November 2024 to December 2026 is presented in the chart below. This estimate is based on crude oil estimates in the STEO for OPEC12 nations, OPEC+ minus OPEC12 nations, and US C+C estimates and the trend in the ratio of the STEO crude estimates and C+C estimates from the EIA’s International Energy Statistics for OPEC12, OPEC+ minus OPEC12, and non-OPEC+ minus US C+C output from November 2018 to October 2024. For the next 4 charts the horizontal and vertical scales are the same, with 9 years on the horizontal axis and 12000 kb/d from the lowest to highest values on the vertical axis so the differences in rates of change are easier to compare. The thin line represents monthly data or forecasts after October 2024 and the markers with labels show the average annual output for each year.
