World Energy 2017-2050: Annual Report

A Guest post by:

Dr. Minqi Li, Professor
Department of Economics, University of Utah
E-mail: minqi.li@economics.utah.edu

This Annual Report evaluates the future development of world energy supply and its impact on the global economy as well as climate change. The report projects the world energy supply and gross world product (global economic output) from 2017 to 2050. It also projects carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning and the implied global average surface temperature from 2017 to 2100.

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Figure 18
Sources: World historical oil, natural gas, and coal consumption from 1950 to 1964 is estimated from carbon dioxide emissions (Boden, Marland, and Andres 2017); world primary energy consumption and its composition from 1965 to 2016 is from BP (2017); world primary energy consumption and its composition from 2017 to 2050 is based on this report’s projections. Read More

OPEC May Production Data

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

All data is through May 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC crude only production was up 336,000 barrels per day in May. The two countries that are not subject to OPEC quotas, Nigeria and Libya, were up a combined 352,000 barrels per day. That means the rest of OPEC was down 16,000 bpd. And all this was after OPEC April production was revised upward by 72,000 barrels per day.

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OPEC April Production Data

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

All data is through April 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day.

Looking at the above chart it seems obvious what most OPEC nations were doing. They announced in the summer of 2016 that there would likely be quota cuts beginning in 2017. And those cuts would be a percentage of their current production. So everyone began making heroic attempts to increase production by the end of 2016. So now, after everyone who felt that they should cut, has cut, they are right back to the level that they were at before the cuts were proposed.

I wrote the above paragraph last month. I see no reason to change a word of it now.

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OPEC March Crude Oil Data

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with OPEC’s crude oil production numbers for March 2017.

All data is through March 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day.

Looking at the above chart it seems obvious what most OPEC nations were doing. They announced in the summer of 2016 that there would likely be quota cuts beginning in 2017. And those cuts would be a percentage of their current production. So everyone began making heroic attempts to increase production by the end of 2016. So now, after everyone who felt that they should cut, has cut, they are right back to the level that they were at before the cuts were proposed.

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World Oil Production

A guest post by David Archibald

The views expressed in this post do not necessarily reflect the views of Dennis Coyne or Ron Patterson.

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy has oil production data by country up to the end of 2015. This is what that looks like from 1988:

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The United States increased production by 5.1 million barrels per day from 2010 to 2015. The increase in production from countries around the Persian Gulf over the same period was slightly less at 5.0 million barrels per day. The increase in total world production was 8.4 million barrels per day so the rest of the world declined by some 1.7 million barrels per day. This was despite Canadian production rising 1.0 million barrels per day from oil sands developments plus some other increases from Russia, Brazil, Colombia etc. Most oil producing countries are in well-established long term decline or plateau at best. How these trends will interact can approached from a bottom-up basis. To that end, the following graphs show likely production profiles by region for the next five years. Read More