Qatar – Page 4 – Peak Oil Barrel

OPEC, except for Iran, Has Peaked

01/20/201601/20/2016 Ron Patterson 527 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out. OPEC took a hit in December, down 205,000 barrels per day. After examining the past and present production numbers, I believe that OPEC, except Iran, has peaked. That is, the combined production from all the other OPEC nations, has peaked. And any additional production from Libya is likely to be in tiny increments that won’t make much difference in the big picture. Other OPEC nations may show a slight increase from their current level. But the combined production from all the other 11 OPEC nations, 12 if you count Indonesia, has peaked.

Of course there will be some small increases from the other 11 OPEC countries from time to time but overall, in 2016 and beyond, I believe it will OPEC will be from flat to down, with a greater chance of being down. That is we are at, or near, the peak right now. There might be a slight uptick of their combined production in the coming months but not enough to get excited abut.

All Data in the charts below is through December and is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 12

OPEC production, in the chart above does not include Indonesia. OPEC 12 was down 204,000 barrels per day.

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OPEC Crude Production Down in October

11/12/201511/12/2015 Ron Patterson 213 Comments

OPEC has published their OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report with crude only production numbers for October 2015. The charts are “Crude Only” production and are in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 12 was down 256,000 bpd in October.

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OPEC according to the EIA

05/25/201505/25/2015 Ron Patterson 614 Comments

OPEC publishes monthly production data for all OPEC nations in their Monthly Oil Market Report. The data crude oil production only and does not include condensate. I have found the data to be highly accurate and any errors are corrected in the next month’s report or the month following that. The OPEC data is from OPEC’s “Secondary Sources”.

The EIA also publishes OPEC production data in their International Energy Statistics. However the EIA does not publish crude only data. Their data includes condensate.

All data is in thousand barrels per day. The last EIA data point is December 2014 and the last OPEC data point is April 2015.

Almost 20% of Algeria’s production is condensate if the EIA is correct. Algeria does produce a lot of condensate but I have serious doubts about the accuracy of the EIA data. As you can see from the chart the EIA has Algeria’s production absolutely flat for 24 months, from January 2010 through December 2011. But both the EIA and OPEC agree on one point, Algeria is in decline.

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OPEC Crude Oil Production, What’s Next?

01/23/201501/23/2015 Ron Patterson 337 Comments

The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with OPEC production data for. The data is “Crude Only” and does not reflect condensate production.

Also the charts, except for Libya, are not zero based. I chose to amplify the change rather than the total.

All Data is in thousand barrels per day with the last data point December 2014.

OPEC 12 production has averaged slightly above or below 30 million barrels per day for about two years now and there is little chance it will go anywhere very fast. But what is obvious from the above chart is there has been no surge in OPEC oil production. OPEC’s December production f 30,204,000 barrels per day is still more than 1.4 million barrels per day below the peaks of 2008 and 2012.

Algeria is struggling to keep production relatively flat.

Angola is holding its own… so far.

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