Tag: Peak Oil

OPEC Update also Moscow Confirms Russian Oil Production in Decline

Ron Patterson 205 Comments

OPEC has just published their latest Monthly Oil Market Report with the June production numbers. All data is in thousand barrels per day and is Crude Only.OPEC 12

All revisions in the May data were minor. The June OPEC Crude Only production was down 80,000 bp/d from May.

Iraq

The big story in June was the invasion or Iraq. It has has only minor effect on production. Iraqi production was down 169,000 bp/d in June.

Saudi Arabia

OPEC’s largest produce and the World’s largest exporter, Saudi Arabia, increased Crude production by 48,000 bp/d in June. There has been very little change in Saudi production in the last nine months.

All other OPEC producers had very little change from May to June. Charts of all 12 OPEC nations can be found on the OPEC Charts page.

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EIA Update, March Production Numbers

Ron Patterson 144 Comments

The EIA updated their International Energy Statistics with the February production numbers about one day after they updated the January numbers. Then on Monday, July 7th, they posted the March numbers. So after preparing a complete post using the February data, I just trashed it and created a new one.

World

World C+C production reached a new high in February, up 531 kb/d to 77,257 kb/d. It was down 525 kb/d in March to 76,732 kb/d.

Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC C+C production reached a new high in December at 44,910 kb/d in December. Since then it has been down 362 kb/d in January, up 270 kb/d in February and up 19 kb/d in March.
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World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 3)

Minqi Li 84 Comments

This is a guest post by Political Economist

Solar Correction

As I reviewed my spreadsheet, I identified a copy and paste error resulting in a mis-calculation of the solar projection.  This affects the projection of annual installation of Solar PV capacity (see Part 2).

The correct projections of annual installation of Solar PV capacity are shown below:

photo SolarCorrection070414_zps407c310d.png

Under the current projection, solar PV annual installation is projected to rise from 38 gigawatts in 2013 to 106 gigawatts by 2020.  Beyond 2020, the growth will slow down.  After 2030, it will plateau and approach 145 gigawatts (not 108 gigawatts as previously stated).

Again, please note this does not imply that solar electricity generation will peak.  Instead, it assumes that the GROWTH of solar electricity generation will peak and plateau.  In other words, it assumes that at some point in the future, solar electricity generation growth will become linear rather than exponential.  (I had an interesting discussion with Dennis on this after the post of Part 2)

I made corrections of the projected primary energy consumption and world GDP in accordance with the solar PV correction.  These are shown below.

Total Primary Energy Consumption

According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, world primary energy consumption reached 12,730 million metric tons of oil-equivalent, 2.3 percent higher than world primary energy consumption in 2012.  Figure 24 shows the primary energy consumption by the world’s five largest energy consumers from 1965 to 2013.

photo PrimaryEnergy062114-1_zpsf37768e7.jpg
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World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 2)

Minqi Li 165 Comments

This is a guest post by Political Economist

Nuclear Electricity

According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, world consumption of nuclear electricity reached 2,489 terawatt-hours (563 million metric tons of oil-equivalent) in 2013, 0.9 percent higher than world consumption of nuclear electricity in 2012.  In 2013, nuclear electricity accounted for 4.4 percent of the world primary energy consumption.

Figure 16 shows nuclear electricity consumption by the world’s five largest nuclear electricity consumers from 1965 to 2013.

photo Nuclear062114-1_zps59fc6b2c.jpgAccording to the World Nuclear Association, as of January 2014, 375 gigawatts of nuclear electric power plants were operative worldwide.  75 gigawatts were under construction, 187 gigawatts were being planned, and 351 gigawatts were being proposed.  World Nuclear Association claims that most planned nuclear power plants are expected to operate within 8-10 years. Assuming that in 10 years, all of the currently constructed and planned nuclear power plants become operative, then in average the world will need to build 26 gigawatts of nuclear power plants a year in the next 10 years.  In reality, some delays are inevitable.

I assume that from 2015 to 2050, the world will build 20 gigawatts of nuclear power plants each year.  On the other hand, 2 percent of the existing nuclear generating capacity will retire each year.  Under these assumptions, nuclear electricity consumption is projected to rise to 4,648 terawatt-hours (1,052 million metric tons of oil-equivalent) by 2050.

Hydro Electricity

According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, world consumption of hydroelectricity reached 3,782 terawatt-hours (856 million metric tons of oil-equivalent) in 2013, 2.9 percent higher than world consumption of hydroelectricity in 2012.  In 2013, hydroelectricity accounted for 6.7 percent of the world primary energy consumption.

Figure 17 shows hydroelectricity consumption by the world’s five largest consumers of hydroelectricity from 1965 to 2013.

photo Hydro062114-1_zps02929bac.jpgFrom 2000 to 2013, the average annual growth of world hydroelectricity consumption was about 90 terawatt-hours (20 million metric tons of oil-equivalent).  I assume that world hydroelectricity consumption will rise to 880 million metric tons of oil-equivalent in 2014 and will keep growing by 20 million metric tons of oil-equivalent each year from 2015 to 2050.
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North Dakota and the Bakken by County

Ron Patterson 167 Comments

Looking at North Dakota oil production by county, and historical production by county, gives a better  perspective of what is happening in the Bakken and the rest of North Dakota than just looking at total production.

The data is available here: ND Historical Barrels of Oil Produced by County You will notice it says:(Confidential Wells are Not Included). However the total North Dakota does include confidential wells. And I have made adjustments for the confidential wells. The adjustment for March and April came from the NDIC here: State Summary Report April 2014.
Bakken Counties

The above chart is after adjustment for confidential wells. Even the lowest producer of the big four, Dunn County, outproduces the rest of North Dakota combined.

McKenzie

McKenzie was up 7,168 barrels per day after adjustment this month.
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