Tag: Peak Oil

Mexico, China and Beyond

Ron Patterson 203 Comments

This is a guest post by David Archibald. The opinions expressed in this post do not necessarily represent those of Dennis Coyne or Ron Patterson

Mexico, China and Beyond

Ron Patterson’s post asking if China’s oil production has peaked reminded me of Mexico
which also produces mainly from supergiant fields. Mexico’s oil production peaked in 2004 and has averaged a 3.5 percent per annum decline rate since, with a peak yearly decline rate of 9 percent in 2008. China’s oil production has fallen 10% from its peak in 2015. Part of that is oil price-related as the Daqing oil field has an operating cost of $46 per barrel and could reverse as the oil price rises. The comparison of China and Mexico with a projection to 2023 is shown in the following figure:

da-1

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Overview of the Northern Deepwater Gulf of Mexico

D C 231 Comments

by SouthLaGeo

The post that follows is a guest post by SouthLaGeo, a geologist with over 30 years of oil industry experience.

SouthLageo/

In this post, I will address 3 topics relating to the Northern Deepwater Gulf of Mexico –
1. Historical oil production
2. One view of the future of exploration
3. EUR ranges

I will limit my comments to oil production (not gas production). All production data is from BSEE/BOEM. The play outlines on the map are my best estimates. I will be using the BSEE definition of deepwater which includes water depths greater than 1000’. And, I will be assuming a Business As Usual future – by that I mean that fossil fuels will continue to be an important an energy source, and the world will continue to be able to afford them. Read More

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report August 2016

D C 202 Comments

OPEC released its Monthly Oil Market Report on August 10, 2016, I have pulled some items of interest from the report.

World Oil Demand

World oil demand growth in 2016 is expected to average 1.22 mb/d, some 30 tb/d higher than last month. For 2017, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.15 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report. While the OECD will contribute positively to oil demand growth adding some 0.10 mb/d, the bulk of the growth in 2017 will originate from the non-OECD with 1.05 mb/d.

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to contract by 0.79 mb/d in 2016, following an upward revision of 90 tb/d since the previous report, driven by higher-than-expected output in 2Q16 in the US and UK. In 2017, non-OPEC supply is expected to decline by 0.15 mb/d, following a downward revision of 40 tb/d. OPEC NGL production is forecast to grow by 0.16 mb/d and 0.15 mb/d in 2016 and 2017, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 46 tb/d to average 33.11 mb/d, according to secondary sources.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 is estimated at 31.9 mb/d, unchanged from last report and 1.9 mb/d higher than in the previous year. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 33.0 mb/d, in line with the previous report and 1.2 mb/d higher than in 2016. Read More

North Dakota Bakken/Three Forks Update

D C 220 Comments

The North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) reported June crude plus condensate (C+C) output on August 12, 2016. North Dakota(ND) Bakken/Three Forks (BTF) output fell by 20.46 kb/d in June to 973.86 kb/d. Overall ND C+C output fell to 1026.58 kb/d in June, a decrease of 185.2 kb/d in the past 12 months. Based on data from Enno Peters, 43 new wells started producing oil in June 2016.

I pulled the charts below from shaleprofile.com (Enno Peter’s website).

bakchart/

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Petroleum Open Thread August 4, 2016

D C 246 Comments

Comments and news about oil and natural gas.

World C+C using EIA data, but substituting the Russian Ministry of Energy Data for Russia shown in the chart below.  The monthly peak was 81, 047 kb/d in Nov 2015.  The centered 12 month running average is also shown with a peak at 80,642 kb/d in Sept 2015.  The annual decline rate since the Nov 2015 peak has been 4.2% per year or about 3.4 Mb/d over a 12 month period if the rate does not change before Nov 2016.  That would imply 77.6 Mb/d by Nov 2016.

Output was 79,784 kb/d in April 2016, I believe the decline rate will decrease by Oct and output will be around 78.5 +/- 0.5 Mb/d in Nov 2016, decline will continue into 2017 and the rate of decline may reach zero some time in 2017.

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.cfm

http://minenergo.gov.ru/en/activity/statistic

Worldcc/