Tag: Peak Oil

World Oil Reserves

Ron Patterson 174 Comments

Rystad Energy has published an interesting article claiming that the US has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia… if you include shale oil.

A new independent estimate of world oil reserves has been released by Rystad Energy, showing that the US now holds more recoverable oil reserves than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. For US, more than 50% of remaining oil reserves is unconventional shale oil. Texas alone holds more than 60 billion barrels of shale oil according to this new data.

I will not quote the entire article for copyright reasons but would invite you to go there and check it out. Their final total, their 2PCX reserves, includes undiscovered fields.

rystad-2pcx

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Eagle Ford Output Estimate and Future Scenario

D Coyne 101 Comments

Eagle Ford output is difficult to estimate as there are 20-25 separate fields that need to be followed to get a full picture. To save time, I have used Enno Peters’ data for horizontal wells from Districts 1 to 5 in Texas from his website shaleprofile.com, he has data through June.  Enno’s data is combined with the RRC data for statewide C+C output to find the percentage of Texas C+C from the Eagle Ford. This percentage is multiplied by Dean’s estimate for Texas C+C output to get the following estimate, which is compared with Enno Peters’ data.  EF-EP is Enno Peter’s collection of data from the RRC, EF-DC is my estimate using the method described.  Based on a May 2016 Eagle Ford estimate, I subtract 70 kb/d from the EF-DC estimate to account for non-Eagle Ford horizontal well output in Districts 1 to 5

TXchart/

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Texas Oil and Natural Gas Update- Sept 2016

D Coyne 88 Comments

TXchart/

Dean has provided his monthly update for Texas Oil and Natural Gas.  The most recent month’s estimate is often volatile and may be ignored, the June and May estimates are likely pretty good (within 1% and 2%), the April 2016 estimate is likely to be robust(within 1% of the final value). The June EIA estimate is 240 kb/d lower than Dean’s estimate (about 7% too low). Read More

Mexico, China and Beyond

Ron Patterson 203 Comments

This is a guest post by David Archibald. The opinions expressed in this post do not necessarily represent those of Dennis Coyne or Ron Patterson

Mexico, China and Beyond

Ron Patterson’s post asking if China’s oil production has peaked reminded me of Mexico
which also produces mainly from supergiant fields. Mexico’s oil production peaked in 2004 and has averaged a 3.5 percent per annum decline rate since, with a peak yearly decline rate of 9 percent in 2008. China’s oil production has fallen 10% from its peak in 2015. Part of that is oil price-related as the Daqing oil field has an operating cost of $46 per barrel and could reverse as the oil price rises. The comparison of China and Mexico with a projection to 2023 is shown in the following figure:

da-1

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