Tag: Peak Oil

Oil Shock Model Scenarios

D Coyne 391 Comments

Many different oil shock model scenarios have been presented over time at Peak Oil Barrel. Information on the Oil Shock Model, originally developed by Paul Pukite can be found in Mathematical Geoenergy. The future is unknown, so future extraction rates from conventional (excludes tight oil and extra heavy oil) oil producing reserves are unknown. Also not known are future oil prices which will affect the amount of tight oil and extra heavy oil that is ultimately produced.

For tight oil I have created three scenarios corresponding to a low, medium and high oil price scenario. Likewise I have created three scenarios for extra heavy oil which correspond to the same low to high price scenarios used for the tight oil scenarios.

The mean estimates by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for technically recoverable resources in tight oil plays combined with reasonable economic assumptions and data gathered from www.shaleprofile.com are used to model tight oil output. The EIA’s AEO 2018 reference oil price scenario is used for the high oil price case and the low scenario uses the AEO reference price case up to the date when it reaches $70/b in 2017$ and assumes oil prices remain at $70/b for all future dates. The medium oil price scenario is the average of the low and high price cases.
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World Oil Production, February 2019 Data.

Ron Patterson 400 Comments

The data for the charts below are from the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review. I will update this post Friday, May 31st with March data for the USA and charts for several states when the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is published. All data is through February 2019 and is thousand barrels per day.

World C+C production was down only slightly in February, dropping only 87,000 barrels per day to 82,389,000 bpd.

It is my contention that World, less USA peaked in November 2016 with the 12 month average peaking in 2017.

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Open Thread Petroleum, April 17, 2019

Ron Patterson 175 Comments

Comments related to oil and natural gas production and closely related subjects in this thread.  Thanks.

“Shale companies from Texas to North Dakota have been managing their wells to maximize short-term oil production. That has long-term consequences for the future of the American energy boom. By front-loading the wells to boost early oil output, many companies have been able to accelerate growth. But these newer wells peter out more quickly, so companies have to drill new ones sooner to sustain their production. In effect, frackers have jumped on a treadmill and ratcheted up the speed, becoming ever more dependent on new capital to keep oil production humming, even as Wall Street is becoming more skeptical of funding the industry.” Rebecca Elliot, The Wall Street Journal (4/8)

OPEC + Russia through March 2019, in thousand barrels per day.

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The EIA’s Optimistic Outlook

Ron Patterson 329 Comments

Most of the data below is taken from from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. The data through February, 2019 is the EIA’s best estimate of past production and all data from March 2019 through December 2020 is the EIA’s best estimate of future production. However in most cases February production is highly speculative so I drew the “projection” line between January and February.

Understand the above chart is Total Liquids, not C+C as I usually post. As you can see the EIA expects world petroleum liquids to keep climbing ever upwards.

This is the EIA’s data for OPEC all liquids with Production data from April 2019 through December 2020.

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