Peak Oil – Peak Oil Barrel

Short Term Energy Outlook, January 2025

01/19/202501/19/2025 D Coyne 23 Comments

The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published recently, the estimate for World C+C output from October 2024 to December 2026 in the chart below is based on crude oil estimates in the STEO for World minus US C+C output and the trend in the ratio of the STEO crude estimates and C+C estimates from the EIA’s International Energy Statistics for World minus US C+C output from Jan 2018 to September 2024. For the next 5 charts the horizontal and vertical scales are the same, with 9 years on the horizontal axis and 16000 kb/d from the lowest to highest values on the vertical axis. The thin line represents monthly data or forecasts after September 2024 and the markers with labels show the average annual output for each year.

Last month’s estimate for average annual output in 2025 was 83467 kb/d using a similar methodology, so the STEO forecast has been revised lower for 2025, this STEO is the first to forecast through December 2026.

September Non-OPEC and World Oil Production Drops

01/11/202501/11/2025 Ovi 186 Comments

By Ovi

The focus of this post is an overview of World oil production along with a more detailed review of the top 11 Non-OPEC oil producing countries. OPEC production is covered in a separate post.

Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for oil producing countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to September 2024. This is the latest and most detailed/complete World oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway, Mexico and China is used to provide a short term outlook.

World oil production decreased by 1,014 kb/d in September to 80,795 kb/d, green graph. The largest decreases came from Libya, 350 kb/d, and Canada, 244 kb/d. October’s World oil production is projected to increase by 1,170 kb/d to 81,965 kb/d. Of that increase, Libya is expected to contribute close to 550 kb/d as its internal politics/oil dispute is settled.

Short Term Energy Outlook, December 2024

12/27/202401/16/2025 D Coyne 100 Comments

The EIA STEO was published recently, the estimate for World C+C output from September 2024 to December 2025 in the chart below is based on crude oil estimates in the STEO for World minus US C+C output and the trend in the ratio of the STEO crude estimates and C+C estimates from the EIA’s International Energy Statistics for World minus US C+C output for the most recent 48 months (September 2020 to August 2024).

OPEC Update, December 2024

12/20/202412/20/2024 D Coyne 88 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for December 2024 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is November 2024 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In the OPEC charts below the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.

OPEC Update, November 2024

11/30/202411/30/2024 D Coyne 55 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for November 2024 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is October 2024 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In the OPEC charts below the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.