The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is just out with OPEC crude only production numbers for February 2014. OPEC Crude production was up 258.6 kb/d in February on the strength of a big jump from Iraq. Iraqi crude oil production was up 400 kb/d to 3,397 kb/d. OPEC crude only production, less Iraq, was down 141.4 kb/d.
Iraq was the only big gainer this month.
Steve Kopits, in his recent presentation at Columbia University, ridiculed the IEA’s often used term a “Call on OPEC“. That is, the IEA looks at the world oil supply and if they see a supply shortage looming on the horizon they then issue a “Call on OPEC” to supply x number of extra barrels and fill that gap. But the next time the IEA issues such a call can OPEC deliver? Or, is OPEC already producing every barrel they possibly can.
One thing for sure, there are eight OPEC countries that are definitely producing every barrel they possibly can, those countries are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar and Venezuela. The chart below is the combined production of those 8 nations.
All charts in this post are “Crude Only” in kb/d with the last data point Jan. 2014.
There can be no doubt that all eight of these OPEC countries are producing every barrel they possibly can. While it is true that Iran and Libya have political problems that is holding their production back, but political problems in that part of the world are likely to get worse rather than better.
But what about the other four OPEC nations. The chart below shows the combined production of Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
It is my contention that not only are these four OPEC nations producing every barrel they possibly can but that they have little prospect of producing much more. I will examine each country one by one.
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is just out with OPEC crude only production numbers for January 2014. OPEC Crude production was up 28,000 bp/d in January but that was after December production had been revised upward by 240,000 bp/d. November production was revised down by 51,000 bp/d.
Of course Saudi is always the one to watch because it is generally believed that they have spare capacity. I think they had spare capacity back in 2011 but are now producing flat out, just like every other OPEC producer.
Saudi crude production was down 115,000 bp/d in January but that was after December production had been revised upward by 119,000 bp/d and November revised up 52,000 bp/d. I think that surge upward early in 2013 is a telling indication. That was Manifa coming on line.
Libya had the biggest gain in January, up 270,000 bp/d to 510,000. I guess peace may be breaking out in a few places there. Without Libya’s gain OPEC production would have been down by 242,000 bp/d.
Charts of all 12 OPEC nations can be found here: OPEC Charts.
The EIA publishes all kinds of energy production data but I collect and chart only Crude + Condensate data. But that comes in three flavors, monthly, quarterly and yearly. I decided to chart the quarterly data and see if that looks any clearer than the monthly data.
Quarterly C+C production in kb/d. The last quarter, 3rd, ends September 2013.
World C+C production has increased 2 million barrels per day since the 2nd quarter of 05. Who were the big gainers that caused this 2 million barrel per day increase?
Turns out it was all USA.
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The OPEC January Monthly Oil Market Report is out with crude only production data through December 2012. Total OPEC crude only was 29,223,000 barrels per day, down 20,000 barrels per day. But that was after November production was revised down by 170,000 bp/d. So December production was down 190,000 bp/d from what they originally reported last month.
Big movers were Iraq and Libya. Iraqi November production was revised down by 132,000 bp/d and their December production was down another 55,000 bp/d meaning they were down 187,000 from what was originally reported last month.
