Tag: OPEC

Revisiting the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2013

Ron Patterson 227 Comments

I was going over the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2013 and noticed a few things you might find interesting. Exactly what is their opinion on Peak Oil? Here, cut and pasted from the report.

IEA 2

 Got that? The URR is great enough to delay any peak until after 2035. Here is one of their graphs that indicate how much they think is left, coal, gas and oil.

IEA 1

Okay 54 years of proven reserves. That puts the peak out to well past mid century. Likely well past 2100 if you count those remaining recoverable resources. And just who has all this oil?

IEA 10

2.2 trillion barrels of conventional crude oil resources. However only 1.7 trillion barrels of that has a 90% probability of being recoverable. Of this the Middle East has the lions share, 971 billion barrels of resources with a 90% probability of recovering 813 billion barrels of that.

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Can we depend on a “Call on OPEC”, or has OPEC peaked?

Ron Patterson 278 Comments

Steve Kopits, in his recent presentation at Columbia University, ridiculed the IEA’s often used term a “Call on OPEC“. That is, the IEA looks at the world oil supply and if they see a supply shortage looming on the horizon they then issue a “Call on OPEC” to supply x number of extra barrels and fill that gap. But the next time the IEA issues such a call can OPEC deliver? Or, is OPEC already producing every barrel they possibly can.

One thing for sure, there are eight OPEC countries that are definitely producing every barrel they possibly can, those countries are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar and Venezuela. The chart below is the combined production of those 8 nations.

All charts in this post are “Crude Only” in kb/d with the last data point Jan. 2014.

OPEC 8

There can be no doubt that all eight of these OPEC countries are producing every barrel they possibly can. While it is true that Iran and Libya have political problems that is holding their production back, but political problems in that part of the world are likely to get worse rather than better.

But what about the other four OPEC nations. The chart below shows the combined production of Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

OPEC 4

It is my contention that not only are these four OPEC nations producing every barrel they possibly can but that they have little prospect of producing much more. I will examine each country one by one.

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OPEC Update and EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

Ron Patterson 83 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is just out with OPEC crude only production numbers for January 2014. OPEC Crude production was up 28,000 bp/d in January but that was after December production had been revised upward by 240,000 bp/d. November production was revised down by 51,000 bp/d.

OPEC 12

Of course Saudi is always the one to watch because it is generally believed that they have spare capacity. I think they had spare capacity back in 2011 but are now producing flat out, just like every other OPEC producer.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi crude production was down 115,000 bp/d in January but that was after December production had been revised upward by 119,000 bp/d and November revised up 52,000 bp/d. I think that surge upward early in 2013 is a telling indication. That was Manifa coming on line.

Libya had the biggest gain in January, up 270,000 bp/d to 510,000. I guess peace may be breaking out in a few places there. Without Libya’s gain OPEC production would have been down by 242,000 bp/d.

Charts of all 12 OPEC nations can be found here: OPEC Charts.

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EIA Quarterly Crude + Condensate Production Data

Ron Patterson 255 Comments

The EIA publishes all kinds of energy production data but I collect and chart only Crude + Condensate data. But that comes in three flavors, monthly, quarterly and yearly. I decided to chart the quarterly data and see if that looks any clearer than the monthly data.

Quarterly C+C production in kb/d. The last quarter, 3rd, ends September 2013.

World

World C+C production has increased 2 million barrels per day since the 2nd quarter of 05. Who were the big gainers that caused this 2 million barrel per day increase?

World Less USA

Turns out it was all USA.
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