Tag: OPEC

OPEC Update also Moscow Confirms Russian Oil Production in Decline

Ron Patterson 205 Comments

OPEC has just published their latest Monthly Oil Market Report with the June production numbers. All data is in thousand barrels per day and is Crude Only.OPEC 12

All revisions in the May data were minor. The June OPEC Crude Only production was down 80,000 bp/d from May.

Iraq

The big story in June was the invasion or Iraq. It has has only minor effect on production. Iraqi production was down 169,000 bp/d in June.

Saudi Arabia

OPEC’s largest produce and the World’s largest exporter, Saudi Arabia, increased Crude production by 48,000 bp/d in June. There has been very little change in Saudi production in the last nine months.

All other OPEC producers had very little change from May to June. Charts of all 12 OPEC nations can be found on the OPEC Charts page.

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North Dakota and the Bakken by County

Ron Patterson 167 Comments

Looking at North Dakota oil production by county, and historical production by county, gives a better  perspective of what is happening in the Bakken and the rest of North Dakota than just looking at total production.

The data is available here: ND Historical Barrels of Oil Produced by County You will notice it says:(Confidential Wells are Not Included). However the total North Dakota does include confidential wells. And I have made adjustments for the confidential wells. The adjustment for March and April came from the NDIC here: State Summary Report April 2014.
Bakken Counties

The above chart is after adjustment for confidential wells. Even the lowest producer of the big four, Dunn County, outproduces the rest of North Dakota combined.

McKenzie

McKenzie was up 7,168 barrels per day after adjustment this month.
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OPEC Update and news from Iraq

Ron Patterson 356 Comments

The new OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report just came out with their Crude Only production numbers for May. All data in the OPEC charts are in thousands barrels per day.

OPEC 12

There was very little in production changes and no surprises in the May data. Total OPEC production was up 142,000 barrels per day and that was after the April numbers had been revised up by 29,000 bpd.

Iraq

Everyone is concerned about Iraq. Iraq’s April numbers were revised down by 22,000 bpd and May production was up 18,000 above that revised number. Iraqi production stood at 3,331,000 bpd in May but I expect that number will change in June and most definitely in July.
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Jean Laherrere’s Take, Plus Other News

Ron Patterson 177 Comments

Note: Jean Laherrere sent me the below post and asked me to post it in reply to comments posted by Dennis Coyne and Political Economist on my post Bakken Update, March Production Data. But that was several days ago, the comments are stale. Also it was too large for a comment. So since we are a period where there is a dearth of data, I decided to make a post of it. Below Jean’s graphs and comments I have added a couple of news Items.
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Policial Economist displays a graph for Bakken production Hubbert linearization trending towards 3.5 Gb, but it is from EIA DPR for the period January 2007 to June 2014 : it is not real data (we are not yet in June 2014) but estimates.

It is different from mine trending towards 2.4 Gb, but it is only for North Dakota Bakken using ND state data from 1955 up to March 2014.

In many of my papers I state that production Hubbert linearization is not very reliable and it is better to rely on the creaming curve of cumulative backdated 2P discovery versus cumulative number of fields. But for LTO there is no reliable way to estimate 2P reserves, because only the volume generated by the source rocks (using Rock Eval measures from cores) can be estimated but the amount lost from this generated oil and gas cannot be estimated and the recovery from what is left within the fractures needs longer historical data.

Laherrere E

The ND production excluding Bakken Hubbert linearization trends also towards 2.5 GbLaherrere

It is why I use a NG oil ultimate of 5 Gb with both 2.5 Gb for Bakken and non-Bakken.
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OPEC Update with April MOMR Data Plus Eagle Ford

Ron Patterson 22 Comments

The new OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with the April Crude only data. No real big movers. Total OPEC crude production was up 131 kb/d but that was after March production had been revised down 148 kb/d.

OPEC 12

OPEC 12 crude only production stood at 29,593,000 bp/d. That is just over 2 million bp/d from their recent peaks in July 2008 and April 2012.

Iraq

Iraq was the only big mover, up 102 kb/d from last month.
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