Tag: OPEC

EIA World Crude Oil Production

Ron Patterson 492 Comments

The EIA has apparently stopped publishing its International Energy Statistics. Instead they are now publishing an abbreviated version on their Total Energy web page titled: Tabel 11.1b World Crude Oil Production. Here they publish crude + condensate production numbers for Persian Gulf Nations, Selected Non-OPEC Countries, Total Non-OPEC and World. The “Selected Non-OPEC Producers are Canada, China, Egypt, Mexico, Norway, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States. They have just released their latest data through February 2016.

All the data below is in thousand barrels per day and through February 2016 unless otherwise noted.

World C+C

They have world C+C peaking, so far, in November 2015 at 80,630,000 bpd. February production was 79,653,000 bpd, or 977,000 bpd below the peak. World C+C production, they say, averaged 80,035,000 in 2015. Average for the first two months of 2016 was 79,933.000 or 102,000 bpd below the average for 2015.

So with world production continuing to decline, there is little doubt that 2016 production will be well below 2015 production.

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OPEC Declines in February Despite Huge Iran Increase

Ron Patterson 366 Comments

All charts are through February 2016

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report just came out. The charts are “Crude Only” production and do not reflect condensate production.

Also the charts, except for Libya, are not zero based. I chose to amplify the change rather than the total. OPEC is now 13 nations with the the addition of Indonesia.

All Data is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 13

OPEC production was down 174,800 barrels per day in February Read More

Oil Price And Its Effect On Production

Ron Patterson 394 Comments

The JODI Oil World Database came out a few days ago. The data is through December 2015. The JODI C+C production numbers differs somewhat from the EIA numbers. The JODI OPEC numbers are crude. Also there are a few very small producers that do not report to JODI so their numbers will be slightly less than the EIA. But otherwise they are pretty accurate.

Also, JODI, for some reason, does not count all of Canada’s oil sands production. So for Canada I use Canada’s National Energy Board numbers instead.

The JODI C+C numbers, for Non-OPEC, will average about 2.4 million barrels per day less than the EIA. This is largely due to some countries not reporting to JODI. But these countries only have small changes in their overall production so would have little effect on any of my charts or calculations.

JODI World C+C

According to JODI, world crude oil production peaked, so far, in July and has declined by 339,000 barrels per day.

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Just How Accurate Are The EIA’s Predictions?

Ron Patterson 391 Comments

The EIA recently published the February edition of their Short-Term Energy Outlook. If you follow this month to month, and I do, you will notice their prognostications change a little every month. And over several months those small changes can add up to some rather dramatic changes. Nevertheless, below are several charts with their current oil production projections.

The EIA STEO only gives monthly data for total liquids. All C+C data is quarterly and annually. The monthly projected data begins in February 2016. Projections for quarterly and annual data begins January 2016.

ST Non-OPEC Liquids

The EIA says Non-OPEC total liquids dropped .5 million barrels per day in December and another .36 mbd in January. But then, other than another short drop in the first quarter of 2017, they see things leveling out for the next two years.

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