Open Thread, Oil and Gas

Oil and Gas thread Only. Please post comments on all other subjects on the “Other Subjects” thread below.

Russia oil output at post-Soviet high on foreign projects, Rosneft

Russian oil output, one of the world’s largest, reached a new post-Soviet monthly high of 10.74 million barrels per day (bpd) in September thanks to foreign-led projects and Rosneft, Energy Ministry data showed on Friday.

Output rose from 10.68 million bpd in August and eclipsed the previous record of 10.71 million bpd reached earlier this year, adding to a global glut that has battered oil prices.

This answers a question I have been asking for years, “why is Russian reported production always at least half a million barrels per day higher than EIA or JODI reported Russian production”? Russia is reporting foreign production as if it were produced in Russia! What if the United Kingdom were to do this? Then the BP Alaskan production and much of the production in the Gulf of Mexico would be reported as United Kingdom production. But then the US would get to count all the oil Exxon produces around the world.

Oil Production in Russia to Drop to 310Mln Tons by 2035

Oil production in Russia may fall to 310 million tons from the current 525 million tons by 2035 given a tougher tax regime amid low oil prices and sanctions, according to LUKoil Vice President Leonid Fedun.

That is a 2.6 percent drop per year. That’s what Lukoil is saying will happen if Russia keeps the current tax structure. Of course they are lobbying for a much lower tax rate, saying that is the only way they can have enough money to invest in enough new production to hold production to only a slight decline, down to only 502 million tons a year.

Texas RRC Oil & Gas Production

The Texas RRC Oil & Gas Production numbers are out. They came out on a weekend this month. All RRC data is through July. The EIA data is through June. Keep in mind that the RRC data is incomplete, that is why the chart lines droop on the end. However the EIA data is from the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly, the data of which the EIA says now comes directly from the states, and reflects the complete best estimate of oil production.

Texas C+C

According to the EIA data, Texas crude + condensate peaked, so far, in March and declined in April, May and June. However the incomplete data from the RRC shows production likely dropping sharply in April, up in May then flat for June and July.

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Jean Laherrere’s Bakken Update

Jean Laherrere sent me the below charts the other day. I had planned on posting them with more Bakken data. But my schedule has been busy so I am posting them alone.

Jean’s interpretation for ND is as follows
Bakken ultimate = 3 Gb
Non Bakken ultimate = 2.2 Gb
ND ultimate 5.2 Gb
Detail
Quite symmetrical like the EIA drilling productivity data, but in contrary to EIA/AEO2015 with a peak in 2020
  
It will be interesting to see the evolution in the next few months

Jean 1

The Hubbert Linearization puts the Bakken about half way to the end.

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