Tag: fossil fuels

World Energy 2017-2050: Annual Report

D Coyne 674 Comments

A Guest post by:

Dr. Minqi Li, Professor
Department of Economics, University of Utah
E-mail: minqi.li@economics.utah.edu

This Annual Report evaluates the future development of world energy supply and its impact on the global economy as well as climate change. The report projects the world energy supply and gross world product (global economic output) from 2017 to 2050. It also projects carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning and the implied global average surface temperature from 2017 to 2100.

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Figure 18
Sources: World historical oil, natural gas, and coal consumption from 1950 to 1964 is estimated from carbon dioxide emissions (Boden, Marland, and Andres 2017); world primary energy consumption and its composition from 1965 to 2016 is from BP (2017); world primary energy consumption and its composition from 2017 to 2050 is based on this report’s projections. Read More

Climate Change with 920 billion metric tonnes of carbon emissions

D Coyne 405 Comments

By Dennis Coyne

Note that non-Petroleum comments should mostly be in this thread.

A separate petroleum thread will be posted soon.

I created an optimistic scenario for future emissions based on low population growth (UN low fertility scenario) and energy intensity of real GDP that decreases by 0.93% until 2050 and then the rate of decrease gradually falls to 0.13% by 2100, other energy demand assumptions are similar to my previous high demand scenario in an earlier post (Energy Transition).

It is assumed that non-fossil fuel energy supply increases enough to satisfy demand until 2032 when the growth rate of non-fossil fuel energy(NFFE) supply has reached 5% per year. From that point the NFFE supply continues to increase at 5% per year and demand for fossil fuels is reduced as NFFE replaces fossil fuels. I assume for simplicity that any extra NFFE (that is greater than NFFE demand) replaces coal first, then oil, and finally natural gas until fossil fuel energy demand is zero in 2058.

The scenario is too optimistic because there will be some uses of fossil fuel which will be difficult or impossible to reduce completely by 2058.
The fossil fuel emissions scenario is shown in the chart that follows and can be downloaded at the link below.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/76hasvu73fmbv07/RCPMDB.SCEN?dl=0

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