Tag: EIA

EIA Update, March Production Numbers

Ron Patterson 144 Comments

The EIA updated their International Energy Statistics with the February production numbers about one day after they updated the January numbers. Then on Monday, July 7th, they posted the March numbers. So after preparing a complete post using the February data, I just trashed it and created a new one.

World

World C+C production reached a new high in February, up 531 kb/d to 77,257 kb/d. It was down 525 kb/d in March to 76,732 kb/d.

Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC C+C production reached a new high in December at 44,910 kb/d in December. Since then it has been down 362 kb/d in January, up 270 kb/d in February and up 19 kb/d in March.
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North Dakota and the Bakken by County

Ron Patterson 167 Comments

Looking at North Dakota oil production by county, and historical production by county, gives a better  perspective of what is happening in the Bakken and the rest of North Dakota than just looking at total production.

The data is available here: ND Historical Barrels of Oil Produced by County You will notice it says:(Confidential Wells are Not Included). However the total North Dakota does include confidential wells. And I have made adjustments for the confidential wells. The adjustment for March and April came from the NDIC here: State Summary Report April 2014.
Bakken Counties

The above chart is after adjustment for confidential wells. Even the lowest producer of the big four, Dunn County, outproduces the rest of North Dakota combined.

McKenzie

McKenzie was up 7,168 barrels per day after adjustment this month.
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US Individual States Production, Bakken Area and GOM

Ron Patterson 193 Comments

The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly has been published with production data for all individual states and offshore areas.  All data is Crude + Condensate and in thousand barrels per day with the last data point March 2014.

Mont+ND

 

Since the Bakken occupies part of two states, North Dakota and Montana, I have combined their production in order to get a better idea of what is really happening there. I have drawn a trend line from July 2011 through October 2012. That shows where production might have been if the fast decline rate and bad weather had not caught up with the. Production was 1,050,000 barrels per day in March, still 5,000 barrels per day below the point reached in November.

ND and Montana Change

I wanted to show this chart so we could get a better idea what is really going on in the entire Bakken area. Back in May and June of 2012 production was increasing by an average of 23,500 barrels every month. Now production is increasing by an average of 15,580 barrels per month.
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JODI, the EIA and Their Data

Ron Patterson 102 Comments

There has been very little new data to report lately. The JODI, Joint Organizations Data Initiative, data for March came out a few days ago. JODI is very good as far as the data it reports goes. The problem is there is a lot of data they just don’t report. If a country does not report their production for a given month then JODI just leaves it blank. And some countries they can’t seem to get any data from, so JODI just gives them zero for every month. For those countries I just substitute EIA numbers.

As far as OPEC goes JODI is very political, reporting the inflated numbers that Iran and Venezuela report. I use instead the EIA data for those two countries.  Anyway here is what I have from JODI. The Data is in kb/d, last data point March 2014:

JODI World Total

But for a few countries JODI is a pretty good data source. Russia is a good example.

JODI Russia

JODI has Russia peaking, so far, in November at 10,127 kb/d and now about 100 kb/d below that point. Analysis have, for years, been expecting Russian production to decline but new fields in Siberia have kept inching up a little bit each year. But with over 60% of their production still coming from Western Siberia’s giant, largely depleted, fields it looks like that long overdue decline may have finally arrived.
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