Dean has provided his monthly update for Texas Oil and Natural Gas. The most recent month’s estimate is often volatile and may be ignored, the June and May estimates are likely pretty good (within 1% and 2%), the April 2016 estimate is likely to be robust(within 1% of the final value). The June EIA estimate is 240 kb/d lower than Dean’s estimate (about 7% too low). Read More
This post was written by Dennis Coyne and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Ron Patterson.
I have considered an alternative way of estimating Texas oil (C+C) output using the Drilling info data provided in the EIA’s 914 monthly production reports.
The Texas estimate is a weak part of the EIA’s estimate for US C+C output. In the chart above I show the EIA’s most recent monthly estimate from the Petroleum supply monthly and compare with an alternative estimate that substitute’s my best estimate for EIA’s TX C+C estimate. The slope of the trend line needs to be multiplied by 366 to give the decline at an annual rate, for the EIA estimate it is 528 kb/d per year, and for the alternative estimate it is 364 kb/d per year. Read More
Dean has shared his estimates for Texas Oil and Natural Gas output. Texas (TX) C+C output was revised lower by -10, -17, -22, -18, and -52 kb/d for Nov 2015 through March 2016 respectively. Output in April 2016 increased by 27 kb/d from the revised March 2016 estimate to 3511 kb/d. The EIA estimate for March 2016 is 3276 kb/d, and Dean’s revised estimate is 3484 kb/d, 208 kb/d more than the EIA estimate.
The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with OPEC crude only production numbers for May, 2016. I have compared these numbers with those published by the EIA in their Short-Term Energy Outlook table 3a. All data is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point in May 2016 except for the projection in the one chart below.
The EIA has OPEC crude production up 238,000 bpd in May to 32,052,000 bpd while OPEC’s “secondary sources” has OPEC production down 100,000 bpd to 32,31,000 bpd in May. The MOMR still has their May production 309,000 bpd more than the EIA.
However that all changes next month, according to the EIA. They have OPEC crude production jumping by 600,000 bpd in June to 32,652,000 bpd. They did not project individual countries however so we have no idea where they believe all that oil is going to come from. Frankly, I just don’t believe it is going to happen.
The EIA has just published their Petroleum Supply Monthly with July production data for the USA and all states and territories. There were really no big surprises.
US C+C production was up 94,000 barrels per day in July to 9,358,000 bpd.