Dean has shared his estimates for Texas Oil and Natural Gas output. Texas (TX) C+C output was revised lower by -10, -17, -22, -18, and -52 kb/d for Nov 2015 through March 2016 respectively. Output in April 2016 increased by 27 kb/d from the revised March 2016 estimate to 3511 kb/d. The EIA estimate for March 2016 is 3276 kb/d, and Dean’s revised estimate is 3484 kb/d, 208 kb/d more than the EIA estimate.
The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with OPEC crude only production numbers for May, 2016. I have compared these numbers with those published by the EIA in their Short-Term Energy Outlook table 3a. All data is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point in May 2016 except for the projection in the one chart below.
The EIA has OPEC crude production up 238,000 bpd in May to 32,052,000 bpd while OPEC’s “secondary sources” has OPEC production down 100,000 bpd to 32,31,000 bpd in May. The MOMR still has their May production 309,000 bpd more than the EIA.
However that all changes next month, according to the EIA. They have OPEC crude production jumping by 600,000 bpd in June to 32,652,000 bpd. They did not project individual countries however so we have no idea where they believe all that oil is going to come from. Frankly, I just don’t believe it is going to happen.
The EIA has just published their Petroleum Supply Monthly with July production data for the USA and all states and territories. There were really no big surprises.
US C+C production was up 94,000 barrels per day in July to 9,358,000 bpd.
I am starting this post off with a news article because it explains why JODI has U.S. production numbers wrong for July.
No, U.S. Oil Production Probably Didn’t Rise in July
The Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) releases monthly oil supply-and-demand data for about 80 countries, which it gathers by directly surveying the countries. It is widely cited by analysts, especially for its figures on demand, imports and exports.
The latest JODI data released Sunday showed that U.S. crude-oil production rose from 9.3 million barrels a day in June to 9.5 million barrels in July.
But the EIA’s latest forecast called for July production to fall to 9.2 million barrels a day in July, continuing the trend of declining U.S. production as companies cut spending in the face of low prices.
For the charts below I have used JODI data for all Non-OPEC nations except those that do not report to JODI. For them I use the EIA data and carry forward the same data that the EIA reported, (April). For the USA, since the JODI data is obviously wrong for July, I simply carried forward the June data which also came directly from the EIA. And for OPEC I use the OPEC MOMR’s “secondary sources”. JODI also uses the MOMR for their data but uses the “direct communication” data instead of the secondary sources data.
The data below is through July 2015 and is in thousand barrels per day.
In July we remained at or near the world’s all time peak at 75,631,000 barrels per day, down just 15,000 bpd from June.
There is new data out today. The EIA published their International Petroleum Statistics yesterday. The EIA also published their Drilling Productivity Report which gave their expected shale oil and gas production through September. Then this morning OPEC published their Monthly Oil Marketing Report with OPEC crude only production numbers through July.
First the Drilling Productivity Report. Of course most of the Drilling Productivity Report is projection, not history. And that projection goes through September 2015.
The EIA has the Bakken peaking in December and declining 107 thousand barrels per day since that point. A secondary peak was reached in April and declining steadily since then.