North Dakota has released December production data for the Bakken and for all North Dakota. They were a little shocking.
Bakken production down 86,150 barrels per day 895,330 bpd. North Dakota production down 92,029 bpd to 942,455 bpd. It was noted that this the largest decline ever in North Dakota production. But it should not be overlooked that the October in crease in production was also the largest ever increase in North Dakota production.
North Dakota just released their production numbers for the Bakken as well as for all North Dakota
The numbers are shocking. The Bakken is up 70,798 bpd to 991,722 bpd and all North Dakota was up 71,447 bpd to 1,043,207 bpd. The EIA’s drilling productivity report really missed the ball on this one.
Enno Peters recently reported on Eagle Ford output at shaleprofile.com, so I have updated my estimate of Eagle Ford output by utilizing his data. Enno reports horizontal well output from the Eagle Ford region so some output from other formations is included (Austin chalk, etc). To compensate for this I compare the data from shaleprofile to the output reported from the EIA for the Eagle Ford.
For Sept 2014 through Nov 2015 Enno’s data is about 52 kb/d higher on average each month than the EIA estimate, so I deduct this amount from my preliminary estimate to arrive at my final estimate. Enno’s data for each month from Sept 2014 to July 2016 is divided by Texas (TX) statewide C+C output from the RRC to find the percentage of Eagle Ford region to TX statewide output. This percentage is multiplied by Dean Fantazzini’s 6 month corrected estimate of Texas C+C output and then 52 kb/d is subtracted to arrive at my final Eagle Ford estimate.
The Chart below has my estimate labelled as Dennis and Enno’s Eagle Ford region estimate (horizontal wells only) labelled as Enno Peters. The EIA estimate is shown as well.
Eagle Ford output is difficult to estimate as there are 20-25 separate fields that need to be followed to get a full picture. To save time, I have used Enno Peters’ data for horizontal wells from Districts 1 to 5 in Texas from his website shaleprofile.com, he has data through June. Enno’s data is combined with the RRC data for statewide C+C output to find the percentage of Texas C+C from the Eagle Ford. This percentage is multiplied by Dean’s estimate for Texas C+C output to get the following estimate, which is compared with Enno Peters’ data. EF-EP is Enno Peter’s collection of data from the RRC, EF-DC is my estimate using the method described. Based on a May 2016 Eagle Ford estimate, I subtract 70 kb/d from the EF-DC estimate to account for non-Eagle Ford horizontal well output in Districts 1 to 5
This is a guest post by David Archibald. The opinions expressed in this post do not necessarily represent those of Dennis Coyne or Ron Patterson
Mexico, China and Beyond
Ron Patterson’s post asking if China’s oil production has peaked reminded me of Mexico
which also produces mainly from supergiant fields. Mexico’s oil production peaked in 2004 and has averaged a 3.5 percent per annum decline rate since, with a peak yearly decline rate of 9 percent in 2008. China’s oil production has fallen 10% from its peak in 2015. Part of that is oil price-related as the Daqing oil field has an operating cost of $46 per barrel and could reverse as the oil price rises. The comparison of China and Mexico with a projection to 2023 is shown in the following figure:
