Eagle Ford – Page 19 – Peak Oil Barrel

The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report and Other News

06/09/201406/09/2014 Ron Patterson 141 Comments

The EIA just released its latest Drilling Productivity Report which is a report on all major shale plays in the U.S. All the data below, unless otherwise noted, is in barrels per day.

The EIA includes the Permian production as shale or light tight oil production. No doubt some tight oil is produced in the Permian but I think most Permian oil is conventional oil.

Total shale oil production from all six shale plays. However I believe perhaps one million barrels of this is conventional production.
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Jean Laherrere’s Take, Plus Other News

05/18/201405/18/2014 Ron Patterson 177 Comments

Note: Jean Laherrere sent me the below post and asked me to post it in reply to comments posted by Dennis Coyne and Political Economist on my post Bakken Update, March Production Data. But that was several days ago, the comments are stale. Also it was too large for a comment. So since we are a period where there is a dearth of data, I decided to make a post of it. Below Jean’s graphs and comments I have added a couple of news Items.
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Policial Economist displays a graph for Bakken production Hubbert linearization trending towards 3.5 Gb, but it is from EIA DPR for the period January 2007 to June 2014 : it is not real data (we are not yet in June 2014) but estimates.

It is different from mine trending towards 2.4 Gb, but it is only for North Dakota Bakken using ND state data from 1955 up to March 2014.

In many of my papers I state that production Hubbert linearization is not very reliable and it is better to rely on the creaming curve of cumulative backdated 2P discovery versus cumulative number of fields. But for LTO there is no reliable way to estimate 2P reserves, because only the volume generated by the source rocks (using Rock Eval measures from cores) can be estimated but the amount lost from this generated oil and gas cannot be estimated and the recovery from what is left within the fractures needs longer historical data.

The ND production excluding Bakken Hubbert linearization trends also towards 2.5 Gb

It is why I use a NG oil ultimate of 5 Gb with both 2.5 Gb for Bakken and non-Bakken.
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Bakken Update, March Production Data

05/14/201405/14/2014 Ron Patterson 130 Comments

The Bakken production data, as well as the All North Dakota production data just came out with their production numbers for March 2014.

Bakken production was up 914,003 bp/d, up 25,091 bp/d from February. All North Dakota production was 977,061 bp/d, up 24,006 bp/d from February. That was a new record for the Bakken but not for all North Dakota. They are still 538 bp/d below their November 2013 numbers.

The surge in the Bakken really started in July 2011 when they doubled number of additional wells per month. Production continued to climb in pretty much a straight line through October 2012. Then bad weather and other problems started to affect production. They are now about 150,000 bp/d below where they would have been had they continued on that trajectory. (Line on chart.)

North Dakota production outside the Bakken declined at about 12% per year until the number of additional wells per month doubled on July 2011. Then it flattened out as some of those new wells were drilled outside the Bakken. But now additional wells outside the Bakken have dropped and so has production. Production outside the Bakken is still down almost three thousand bp/d from the December numbers. So though the Bakken hit a new high in March, total North Dakota production is still below the November numbers.
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OPEC Update with April MOMR Data Plus Eagle Ford

05/13/201405/13/2014 Ron Patterson 22 Comments

The new OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with the April Crude only data. No real big movers. Total OPEC crude production was up 131 kb/d but that was after March production had been revised down 148 kb/d.