Bakken – Page 26 – Peak Oil Barrel

Gulf Of Mexico Crude Oil Production

06/05/201406/05/2014 Ron Patterson 142 Comments

Folks who follow this blog know that I am a data hog. That is I track data from the US as well as production from the rest of the world. But there are periods during the month when there is just no new data coming in. During the first 10 days or so of a month is such a time, almost no new data is posted anywhere. So I try to find something else to post. It is on the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.

The last data point on all charts is March 2014. All data is in barrels per day except the first chart below which is in thousand barrels per day.

The EIA gets their data from BSEE, (Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement), a branch of Department of the Interior, not the Department of Energy as you might expect.

The BSEE is a little like the Texas RRC, that is they report the data they have even though they know it will be revised later. The EIA on the other hand, estimates where they think the data will be after it has all come in. So the chart above shows where they think production in the GOM will be after all the data comes in.
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In North Dakota it is Mostly Just One County

06/02/201406/02/2014 Ron Patterson 184 Comments

North Dakota publishes crude oil production numbers for each county. The problem is these numbers do not include confidential wells. Their totals for all North Dakota do include these wells however. I have figured out a way to estimate, pretty closely I believe, each county’s share of those unreported wells. That is take each county’s percentage of total production, then assume they would have the same percentage of confidential wells. It is not exact but close enough.

The data is published only as a PDF file and cannot be copied and pasted. Therefore I must input the data for each of 18 counties, each month, manually. That is very time consuming and I only had the patience to do 15 months. But that is plenty for what I am trying to show.

All the rest of North Dakota combined produces less than the lowest of the big four.
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US Individual States Production, Bakken Area and GOM

05/29/201405/29/2014 Ron Patterson 193 Comments

The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly has been published with production data for all individual states and offshore areas. All data is Crude + Condensate and in thousand barrels per day with the last data point March 2014.

Since the Bakken occupies part of two states, North Dakota and Montana, I have combined their production in order to get a better idea of what is really happening there. I have drawn a trend line from July 2011 through October 2012. That shows where production might have been if the fast decline rate and bad weather had not caught up with the. Production was 1,050,000 barrels per day in March, still 5,000 barrels per day below the point reached in November.

I wanted to show this chart so we could get a better idea what is really going on in the entire Bakken area. Back in May and June of 2012 production was increasing by an average of 23,500 barrels every month. Now production is increasing by an average of 15,580 barrels per month.
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Jean Laherrere’s Take, Plus Other News

05/18/201405/18/2014 Ron Patterson 177 Comments

Note: Jean Laherrere sent me the below post and asked me to post it in reply to comments posted by Dennis Coyne and Political Economist on my post Bakken Update, March Production Data. But that was several days ago, the comments are stale. Also it was too large for a comment. So since we are a period where there is a dearth of data, I decided to make a post of it. Below Jean’s graphs and comments I have added a couple of news Items.
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Policial Economist displays a graph for Bakken production Hubbert linearization trending towards 3.5 Gb, but it is from EIA DPR for the period January 2007 to June 2014 : it is not real data (we are not yet in June 2014) but estimates.

It is different from mine trending towards 2.4 Gb, but it is only for North Dakota Bakken using ND state data from 1955 up to March 2014.

In many of my papers I state that production Hubbert linearization is not very reliable and it is better to rely on the creaming curve of cumulative backdated 2P discovery versus cumulative number of fields. But for LTO there is no reliable way to estimate 2P reserves, because only the volume generated by the source rocks (using Rock Eval measures from cores) can be estimated but the amount lost from this generated oil and gas cannot be estimated and the recovery from what is left within the fractures needs longer historical data.

The ND production excluding Bakken Hubbert linearization trends also towards 2.5 Gb

It is why I use a NG oil ultimate of 5 Gb with both 2.5 Gb for Bakken and non-Bakken.
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Bakken Update, March Production Data

05/14/201405/14/2014 Ron Patterson 130 Comments

The Bakken production data, as well as the All North Dakota production data just came out with their production numbers for March 2014.

Bakken production was up 914,003 bp/d, up 25,091 bp/d from February. All North Dakota production was 977,061 bp/d, up 24,006 bp/d from February. That was a new record for the Bakken but not for all North Dakota. They are still 538 bp/d below their November 2013 numbers.

The surge in the Bakken really started in July 2011 when they doubled number of additional wells per month. Production continued to climb in pretty much a straight line through October 2012. Then bad weather and other problems started to affect production. They are now about 150,000 bp/d below where they would have been had they continued on that trajectory. (Line on chart.)

North Dakota production outside the Bakken declined at about 12% per year until the number of additional wells per month doubled on July 2011. Then it flattened out as some of those new wells were drilled outside the Bakken. But now additional wells outside the Bakken have dropped and so has production. Production outside the Bakken is still down almost three thousand bp/d from the December numbers. So though the Bakken hit a new high in March, total North Dakota production is still below the November numbers.
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