Bakken – Page 23 – Peak Oil Barrel

Petroleum Supply Monthly & Other News

11/03/201411/03/2014 Ron Patterson 281 Comments

The EIA just released their Petroleum Supply Monthly where they give their estimates of US crude production as well as the crude production for all states and territories through August 2014.

There was not much movement from anyone in August. Here are the biggest movers:

Change
Total USA 61 kbd
Texas 46 kbd
GOM 21 kbd
North Dakota 18 kbd
Oklahoma -6 kbd
Colorado -9 kbd
Alaska -24 kbd

The data is in kbd with the last data point August 2014.

I have started the data in January 2009 in order to get a better picture of what is really happening.

The above chart is the combined production of both GOM and Pacific offshore.

The EIA is predicting Offshore production to reach 2 million barrels per day by 2016, I really don’t think it is going to make it. They are counting on a lot of new offshore fields that are coming on line to bring it up to that level. While that is happening, what they have underestimated is the very high decline rate of these deep water fields.
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AEO 2015 Preliminary Report

10/30/201410/30/2014 Ron Patterson 311 Comments

The EIA published, last month, AEO2015 Preliminary Oil & Natural Gas
Production & Price Results. And just below the title they wrote:
DRAFT – DO NOT CITE
But I am not citing anything, just informing you of what they said. 😉 What they mean however is that they reserve the right to change their mind before the report comes out early net year. And I can certainly understand that. All Oil data is in million barrels per day.

They have lower 48 production hitting a slowly increasing plateau in 2016 and peaking at just under 8.4 million barrels per day in 2027.

They have US Tight Oil production following pretty much the same profile, hitting a plateau in 2016 at about 5.5 million barrels per day and holding flat until starting a very slow decline in 2030.

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Post Carbon Institute’s LTO Reality Check

10/27/201410/28/2014 Ron Patterson 272 Comments

The Post Carbon Institute has just released a critique of the EIA’s Light Tight Oil projections. It is titled DRILLING DEEPER. The report is highly critical of the EIA’s projections and should be read by everyone interested in Peak Oil.

All data on all charts is in million barrels per day unless otherwise specified.

First a look at the EIA oil projections for US production from all sources. They expect offshore to increase to 2 million barrels per day by 2016, an increase of almost 600,000 bpd from current production. Also note that the EIA has US almost peaking in 2016 and increasing only slightly until the peak in 2019.

The EIA has several projections, covering all bases. However the reference, or most likely, will be the only one covered in this post.
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Bakken Oil Production by County

10/18/201410/21/2014 Ron Patterson 213 Comments

North Dakota production by county is posted here: ND Historical Barrels of Oil Produced by County Confidential wells are not included in that data however but that estimated data can be found here:Monthly Production Report Index Click on the latest month.

This is a zero based chart and gives a better overall picture of production from each county. The charts below are not zero based but gives an amplified picture of production from each county.

Production in barrels per day for each county was as follows:
McKenzie 386,715
Mountrail 278,940
Dunn 185,707
Williams 149,437
Rest of ND 131,531

McKenzie county production was up by 16,435 barrels per day. McKenzie remains the most productive county in North Dakota.
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The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly

09/29/201410/01/2014 Ron Patterson 297 Comments

The EIA has just published their Petroleum Supply Monthly with US production, and other data, for July 2014. US C+C production fell by 3,000 barrels per day in July.

After a big leap in April things have slowed down considerably in the last three months. US production in July was 8,537,000 barrels per day

This is US production since 1920. We are just over 1.5 million barrels per day below the monthly high of 10,044,000 barrels per day of in November 1970.
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