OPEC October MOMR and other news

Ron Patterson 441 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report has just came out with OPEC production data for September 2014. All production numbers are in thousand barrels per day with the last data point September 2014.

OPEC 12

The August production numbers were revised down 275,000 bpd from 30,347 kbd to 30,054 kbd. Current OPEC 12 production stands at 30,474 kbd, up 402 from the revised numbers.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s August production numbers were revised down 202 kbd. With that revision they are down another 50 kbd in Septemer to 9,605 kbd.

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The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook

Ron Patterson 175 Comments

The EIA just came out with their SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK. The non-OPEC data is  liquids. The EIA counts everything, all biofuels, NGLs and refinery process gain in their “Total Liquids” category.

The data below, unless otherwise specified, is in million barrels per day. The last recorded data point is September 2014 and the projection is through December 2015.

Non-OPEC Liquids Projected

The EIA is expecting non-OPEC total liquids to be up 1.17 million barrels per day over the next 15 months, October 2014 through December 2015.

USA STOE

The EIA is projecting US Total Liquids to be up 1.44 million barrels per day over the next 15 months. That means they are expecting the rest of non-OPEC to be down 270 thousand barrels per day December 2015.
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EIA’s International Energy Statistics

Ron Patterson 231 Comments

The EIA updated their International Energy Statistics on Monday September 29. However there was an error in their data which I caught right away. They had Kazakhstan increasing C+C production by 856,000 barrels per day.

EIA Error

Above is their C+C data, January through June. I emailed Patrica Smith, the EIA employee who posts these stats. She emailed me right back:

Mr. Patterson, Thank you very much for catching the error.  The numbers were transposed.  I will ask the database manger to make the correction.

So I waited. The next day the correction had not been made so I emailed her back asking her for the correct numbers because this error also affected total world production as well as non-OPEC production. She emailed me back:

Mr. Patterson, The crude number should be 1520 instead of 2420.

So the number was off by 900 kbpd, Kazakhstan C+C production was actually down 44 kbpd instead of up 856 kbpd. And here three days later the correction still has not been made in the database. I think the international data is getting a very low priority these days. A few years ago, when the International Petroleum Monthly was still being published, they made a similar error. They had Canadian production one million bpd too high. I emailed Ms. Smith and the correction was made immediately and an email went out from the EIA, to all subscribers of the data, informing them of the data error and correction.

Anyway, the data for all charts below is in thousand barrels per day with the last data point June 2014.

Kazakhstan

Production from Kazakhstan’s Kashagan field is not expected until the second half of 2016, or about two years from now.

World

World C+C production was up 189 kbpd in June to 76,695 kbpd but is still down 747 kbpd below the peak in February.

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The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly

Ron Patterson 297 Comments

The EIA has just published their Petroleum Supply Monthly with US production, and other data, for July 2014. US C+C production fell by 3,000 barrels per day in July.

US C+C

After a big leap in April things have slowed down considerably in the last three months. US production in July was 8,537,000 barrels per day

UA Big Picture

This is US production since 1920. We are just over 1.5 million barrels per day below the monthly high of 10,044,000 barrels per day of in November 1970.
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More David Archibald on LTO plus Net Imports

Ron Patterson 286 Comments

David Archibald has recently revised his peak date for shale oil. The below was contained in a recent post I received from him:

Ron,

For what it is worth, just to let you know that I have recanted on my estimate of US LTO production.

This is from reading the presentations put out in September by the US independents.   I started with the EOG presentation and then worked through the others that EOG referred to.  If Hubbert-type analysis works for LTO, it may be too early to apply it.

The rig count for the Bakken etc may be down to flat but the fraccing units are pumping a lot more sand and the economics of fraccing have improved a lot over the last two years.  That in turn means that the resource is larger at a given IRR cutoff.  This is currently my best guess of the three major plays:

David New 3

Others are appearing such as SCOOP in Oklahoma.

 I tried to make the graph useful by putting in the cumulative production to 2035 so that people can mentally adjust it for what they think EUR might be.  The Permian has a lot of NGLs and natural gas which means that the energy produced is about twice as large as the oil component.    The reason I didn’t make the Permian as peaky as the Eagle Ford for example is that there at lot of stacked plays in the Permian.  Once companies have got acreage and got one horizon working, they don’t have to be in a rush to develop the others.

 The US LTO boom is worth about two to three years of conventional oil decline:David New 4

With further demand destruction, the US will become energy independent.
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