Has China reached Peak Oil?

D Coyne 345 Comments

Ron Patterson sends me the occasional e-mail when he sees something of interest.  Portions of his email are below.

Chinachart/
Dennis, I thought you might find this interesting.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-decline-in-oil-production-echoes-globally-1472122393
China’s Decline in Oil Production Echoes Globally

Aug. 25, 2016 6:53 a.m. ET
0 COMMENTS
BEIJING—China’s struggling oil sector has entered a challenging new phase: long-term decline of its domestic production.

Oil production in China likely peaked last year at around 4.3 million barrels a day, according to new data and interviews with industry executives. The development has significant implications globally, including the potential for higher crude prices over time as China steps up imports to meet rising demand at home.
“The turning point that we’ve been searching for, for years, is happening now,” said Kang Wu, vice chairman for Asia at energy consultancy FGE. As an oil producer, he said, “China is entering long-term stagnation and decline.” Read More

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report August 2016

D Coyne 202 Comments

OPEC released its Monthly Oil Market Report on August 10, 2016, I have pulled some items of interest from the report.

World Oil Demand

World oil demand growth in 2016 is expected to average 1.22 mb/d, some 30 tb/d higher than last month. For 2017, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.15 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report. While the OECD will contribute positively to oil demand growth adding some 0.10 mb/d, the bulk of the growth in 2017 will originate from the non-OECD with 1.05 mb/d.

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to contract by 0.79 mb/d in 2016, following an upward revision of 90 tb/d since the previous report, driven by higher-than-expected output in 2Q16 in the US and UK. In 2017, non-OPEC supply is expected to decline by 0.15 mb/d, following a downward revision of 40 tb/d. OPEC NGL production is forecast to grow by 0.16 mb/d and 0.15 mb/d in 2016 and 2017, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 46 tb/d to average 33.11 mb/d, according to secondary sources.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 is estimated at 31.9 mb/d, unchanged from last report and 1.9 mb/d higher than in the previous year. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 33.0 mb/d, in line with the previous report and 1.2 mb/d higher than in 2016. Read More

North Dakota Bakken/Three Forks Update

D Coyne 220 Comments

The North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) reported June crude plus condensate (C+C) output on August 12, 2016. North Dakota(ND) Bakken/Three Forks (BTF) output fell by 20.46 kb/d in June to 973.86 kb/d. Overall ND C+C output fell to 1026.58 kb/d in June, a decrease of 185.2 kb/d in the past 12 months. Based on data from Enno Peters, 43 new wells started producing oil in June 2016.

I pulled the charts below from shaleprofile.com (Enno Peter’s website).

bakchart/

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