68 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum September 12, 2024”

  1. This is who Donald Trump is listening to these days.

    https://loomered.com/about/

    This is where he gets the stories of Dogs and cats being eaten by Haitians in Springfield Ohio.

    https://loomered.com/2024/09/10/ohio-u-s-sen-sherrod-brown-runs-away-to-avoid-questions-on-reports-of-illegal-haitian-immigrants-eating-pets-in-springfield/

    Wikipedia page on this far right journalist who rode on Trump’s plane to the Sept 11 Memorial

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Loomer

      1. I didn’t know that there were many Haitian immigrants eating pets in Asia.
        Maybe Trump could try that line next time.

        Seriously, he is disqualified to to be a grade school principle or even a school sidewalk crossing officer.
        And yet some republicans still consider him fit for leadership…
        Just Astounding.
        Batman and Robin both come across as mean spirited people.

        This message is approved by the Dog Lovers for Harris council.

        1. I have heard, from someone who personally knows, that cats make good sausage.
          To me, it hardly seems worth the effort.

      2. Loads of oil,

        The point is that Trump lies constantly, this is just one of the more obvious lies.

        1. Trump said that the Harris economic plan is too basic and amounts to “Run, Spot, Run”

          “She doesn’t have a plan. She copied Biden’s plan,” Trump said during the debate. “And it’s like four sentences. Like ‘run, Spot, run.’”

          I guess that’s a good plan in case family dogs are in danger of being eaten.

          1. This is the guy who now claims to have a concept of a plan, presumably to replace Obamacare, which was implement in 2010. 14 years later he’s got nothing.

        2. I think the media caught Harris fibbing too. Most politicians get a little woozy on the truth while campaigning and it ain’t a big deal. They are expected to have warehouses full of policy knowledge at their fingertips and they “reach too far” sometimes.
          Trump is different. His lying is pathological and demonstrates an absolute indifference to reality. That disrespect for the public should alienate every single person who has a stake in the country. Why doesn’t it?

            1. CLAIM: Harris: “Donald Trump left us the worst unemployment since the Great Depression”.
              VERDICT: This is false.
              At the end of Trump’s term of office in January 2021, the unemployment rate was 6.4%.
              ..
              CLAIM: Harris: “If Donald Trump were to be re-elected, he will sign a national abortion ban”.
              VERDICT: This is misleading. Trump has denied that he would sign a national ban if elected president.
              He has said that he would leave limits on abortion access up to individual states to decide.
              https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjv3gdxv7go
              I’ve seen others but you can find them yourself if you are really interested.
              Politicians “mis-speak”. Sometimes it’s a lie, sometimes it is a boo-boo. In either case they are responsible for the words they utter. Pretending that your favorite politician never uttered a falsehood is delusional.
              Believing anything, anything, Trump says is also delusional.

            2. Yeah Trump managed to get unemployment up to 14.8% but it fell after he was voted out of office.
              Somehow doesn’t seem like quite the same level of blatant lying as Trump’s insane claims that Haitian immigrants are stealing and eating family pets, or that infanticide is practiced in Blue states.

              Trump will do the usual Pontius Pilate routine, but his lies are making life tough in Springfield, thanks to his fascist minions.

              https://abc11.com/post/new-round-springfield-ohio-bomb-threats-target-3-medical-facilities-unspecified-4th-facility/15303158/

              As to whether Trump will sign an abortion ban, it’s hard to call it a lie since he is all over the place on the topic. It’s more a prediction.

              So your “both sides are bad” line falls pretty flat with me. You’ll need to come up with something more credible to support your boy.

            3. Nothing that I wrote suggests that their failures are of equal magnitude.
              A little humility about those we wish to win is appropriate. I’ve voted for every Democratic presidential candidate since Nixon. None lived up to my expectations except in that they were all preferable to their opponents.
              I’ll vote for Ms. Harris too, but considering the consequences I’d like to have a stronger candidate.

          2. Alimbiquated,

            I remember when Trump was debating Clinton: a fact checking organization found that mainstream politicians, including Clinton, misled, lied or exaggerated about 25% of the time. That was roughly the status quo, which was generally considered more or less acceptable.

            Trump lied about 75% of the time.

            I think JJhman’s argument is that Harris isn’t perfect, but Trump is not equivalent: he’s far, far worse.

            JJHhman,

            I’d quibble with you just a little: I think it’s a bit unfair to judge democratic presidents, when they’ve had to deal with an uneducated electorate and an opposition party which is wholly captured by irrational billionaires (e.g., Thiel, who singlehandedly elected Vance).

            1. Nick:
              Thanks for the understanding words, in spite of the quibble! I choose not to respond further to irrational accusations.
              In defense of being judgmental I’d say we have a duty to hold all office holders to a high standard. Today we have a political challenge on our hands that is a unique danger to democracy in that Trump has managed to empower the lowest, worst elements of human nature. Today’s environment is often compared to the 1850s in terms of polarization but I might say that today is worse because the division then was rooted in some very fundamental societal norms in that the abolitionists were introducing a new ethic to society and the resistance to that ethic represented a genuine conservatism, that is, protecting a way of life that was all that people had ever experienced. To your point, they were even less educated than us!
              The struggle today, masked behind a pseudo-conservatism, really has a driving force more like Germany in the late 1920s where myriad forces are creating discontent and a particular evil is doing a good job of capitalizing on the discontent. “Blood and soil” describes both.
              I guess I have failed to describe my intent merely to encourage others not to ignore the weaknesses of the “good guys” and to encourage others to avoid the kind of blind faith that we see in the MAGA crowd. Oh well.

      1. Took me a minute to figure out what you meant, because I like antique watches…

    1. Hickory – very interesting story.
      Do you think Fervo’s high rate geothermal project test is a result of a breakthrough in technology, or because Cape Station is just a really good geothermal project? In my reading of the press release, it seems to me its because Cape Station is a really good geothermal project. Or, is the technical breakthrough the ability to “harness” a high rate geothermal well? (This happened in the GOM as industry moved out into deepwater and started completing 15 kbopd wells – bigger tubing,etc. Industry learned how to harness high rate wells,) Or, another breakthrough appears to be the big drilling cost savings – quoted at 70%. !!
      I am somewhat surprised that they already drilled 15 wells. I guess geothermal projects need to be appraised, just like O&G projects.
      Again – very interesting. I’m trying to become more knowledgeable about geothermal.

      1. I am not at all qualified to know if the results are due to being a great site vs improvement in technique. We will have to watch how they do over the next couple years. I am hoping it means that they have been able to apply techniques learned from the oil and gas drilling accumulated experience.
        The Fervo story is very interesting. Here is an interview with the lead guy-
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8tPyKzkSXU

        And here is a website that is dedicated to the industry-
        https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/

        I’ll be interested to hear your appraisal of the industry prospects as things progress.

      2. Something does not quite add up with this story. To get 10 MW from a 107 kg/s mass flow will require a rather high tempeature > 270 deg C. That equates to about 400 tonnes of water per hour (2500 b/hr), and suggest that a rather large pipe would be required. Not your typical 5 inch production tubing for oil wells. In addition there will need to be an injector well and a source of make up water. A cooling tower will also be needed. I note that there is an absence of temperature data. I wonder why?

        Hr are tow links on geothermal power. I have posted them before. The thermodymanic efficiency is rather low mainly as a result of the enrgy lost to the flashed hot water.

        Using geothermal energy with a heat pump is actually quite effcient, but it does not produce lectical power.

        https://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/openengineering/article/doi/10.1115/1.4054038/1139681/Comparison-of-Thermodynamic-Performances-in-Three

        https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341592959_Thermodynamics_of_Geothermal_Energy

        A little warning. these papers are a little technical, especially the first one. Unless you a have a minimal undertstaning of thermodynamics you might find them difficult to follow. Overall the termodymaic efficiency is not that good for power production.

        1. Low temperatures indeed for modern steam turbines but on the other hand the fuel cost is low.

        2. A simple look at geothermal power on wikipedia taught me about Binary cycle power stations. They:

          “can accept fluid temperatures as low as 57 °C.[14] The moderately hot geothermal water is passed by a secondary fluid with a much lower boiling point than water. This causes the secondary fluid to flash vaporize, which then drives the turbines”

          and

          “The thermal efficiency of this type of station is typically about 10–13%”

          In New Zealand the NGĀ TAMARIKI plant 17 km northeast of Taupō, with the largest Ormat 20MW Binary Cycle units in the world (in 2013) has a nameplate capacity of 82 MW.

    2. The good news on this is that
      -there is a strong effort underway now on this now US to make a hard push at exploring viability of newer techniques
      -it won’t take a long time to know whether the current prototype level projects are running towards an expensive and mediocre outcome vs an outcome that is a good deal, and perhaps applicable to a wide geography
      -its not based on future miraculous development of technology like fusion power
      -the fuel is perpetual and free

      The proof will be in the pudding, one way or another. Bears watching.

  3. China already has many financial troubles, but another is gathering pace. Over the next decade 300 million Chinese will retire and start drawing a state pension. I don’t see how China can cope with 400 million pensioners in 2040. It will be a bleak retirement for most of them.

    1. China’s domestically produced oil will be practically zero by 2040. Not because they transitioned to EV’s.

      China without imports has roughly 5 years of oil left. And imports are going away.

      1. China will be fine. Educated, intelligent, and motivated workforce. World’s industrial capacity. Will offer gold backed yuan to Middle East for energy.

        America, on the other hand….

        1. China can offer whatever they want too. Fact is Middle Eastern oil exports are going to fall off their plateau. You can’t demand what is not there. In 15 years exports likely will be half or less of what they are today. Oil production may still be relatively high but the exports go away.

          All the European demand for Chinese made goods will be gone as well. Exactly who is China going to be selling their products to?

          China won’t even need as much oil because demand for their products from the world is going to be substantially lower.

          Nobody is going to be fine.

          1. I have, on the bookshelf behind me, Richard Heinsberg’s “The Party’s Over” (2003) and Matt Simmons’ “Twilight In the Desert” (2005). Both predicted short term depletion of Middle East oil.
            Simmons’ book, especially, gave a pretty solid research-based analysis of why the big fields were short lived.
            I’m just not confident that countries like Iran and SA are going to let out enough information to permit anyone to know how much is there or how long it will be available to the world. It is a pretty good bet that when the output starts to obviously slow a lot of countries with big armies and small oil reserves will take interest.

        2. Paskistan claimans to have drilled oil in its waters, with potential to become #4 oil producer after Saudi，Iran and Iraq in the middle east

          1. Saudi oil exports are down 930,000 barrels per day to 5.42 million barrels per day as of June of this year.

            They have said due to a lack of demand from Asia.

            Or is it lack of supply? Demand goes down when supply is cut. Economic activity decreases due to the cut in oil supply.

            If the oil is made available I assure you it will be bought and used towards some activity somewhere.

            Banks will lend money to someone who will use that energy as long as the energy is available.

            Pakistan no matter how hard they try won’t be able cover the falling oil exports from Saudi Arabia.

            We are heading into a situation where the big three oil producers/exporters are all having declining oil exports.

            And no it’s not bullish for oil prices. Because demand tanks due to lack of supply.

            1. HHH-“Or is it lack of supply? Demand goes down when supply is cut”

              A change in supply leads to a shift in the supply curve, which causes an imbalance in the market that is corrected by changing prices and demand. An increase in the change in supply shifts the supply curve to the right, while a decrease in the change in supply shifts the supply curve left. Essentially, there is an increase or decrease in the quantity supplied that is paired with a higher or lower supply price.

              A change in supply shouldn’t be confused with a change in the quantity supplied. The former causes a shift in the entire supply curve, while the latter results in movement along the existing supply curve.

              The general consensus amongst economists is that these are the primary factors that cause a change in supply, which necessitates the shifting of the supply curve:

              Number of sellers
              Expectations of sellers
              Price of raw materials
              Technology
              Other prices

              https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/change_in_supply.asp

              HHH- “And no it’s not bullish for oil prices. Because demand tanks due to lack of supply.”

              What Is Equilibrium?
              Equilibrium is the state in which market supply and demand balance each other, and as a result prices become stable. Generally, an over-supply of goods or services causes prices to go down, which results in higher demand—while an under-supply or shortage causes prices to go up resulting in less demand.

              The equilibrium price is where the supply of goods matches demand. When a major index experiences a period of consolidation or sideways momentum, it can be said that the forces of supply and demand are relatively equal and the market is in a state of equilibrium.

              Economists find that prices tend to fluctuate around the equilibrium levels. If the price rises too high, market forces will incentivize sellers to come in and produce more. If the price is too low, additional buyers will bid up the price. These activities keep the equilibrium level in relative balance over time.

              https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/equilibrium.asp#:~:text=Equilibrium is the state in,up resulting in less demand.

              The law of demand holds that the demand level for a product or a resource will decline as its price rises and rise as the price drops.

              The law of supply says that higher prices boost the supply of an economic good and lower ones tend to diminish it.

              It’s now been over a year and half since HHH predicted March 2023 $25 oil.

              I’m still waiting.

            2. Umm….. prices are lower. Do you see more demand at this lower price?

              Supply is down. The amount of oil exports coming out of the Middle East is down. Would you agree with that statement? Do you see prices going up to bring on more supply?

              If supply isn’t there. There is no increase in demand at any price. Higher prices aren’t going to bring on more supply if there is no supply to bring online. You can’t demand something that just isn’t available. You can’t demand the 930,000 barrels of oil a day that Saudi Arabia is no longer exporting.

              You can argue all day if prices would just go up we would have more supply at a higher price. But reality is demand is low at current prices. And heading lower along with prices.

              If you cut the supply of energy demand falls and so do prices.

              Lower oil prices are just like lower interest rates. A lot of people, economists including think lower oil prices and interest rates are some sort of economic stimulus. No they are both signs of tightening monetary conditions and credit tightening.

              Look no further than China. Their entire bond market is yielding at all time lows. Because banks don’t want to lend. They would rather hide in the safety of government bonds than lend money into the economy. That is what low interest rates mean.

              As bonds yields rollover here in the US and back to zero it means lower oil prices. Much lower. I say $25 what is your guess?

            3. “Do you see more demand at this lower price?”

              Oil has a low elasticity of demand, meaning that the demand for oil doesn’t change significantly when the price for it changes, given how dependent the global economy is on it. The supply of oil is also fairly inelastic given how complex and costly the process is to initially set up oil extraction.

              The most striking feature of the oil market is the low price elasticity of demand. That means demand for oil is not very responsive to changes in prices. It is easy to see this by looking at your own life. If you have a car, you usually continue driving to work, going to stores, and visiting friends regardless of the price of gasoline. Your demand for oil does not change very much based on the price, and it works the same way for others.

              https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040915/how-does-law-supply-and-demand-affect-oil-industry.asp#:~:text=Oil%20has%20a%20low%20elasticity,initially%20set%20up%20oil%20extraction.

              What I see is Saudi Arabia raising their asking price for their oil by taking 930K BPD off the market. Why should they give it away? It’s a finite resource. It’s still available, just not at today’s price. Their in this for the long term. I would do the same myself.

              “Higher prices aren’t going to bring on more supply if there is no supply to bring online”

              Today this statement is just wrong. There are more opportunities out there to bring on additional supply than I can count. It just doesn’t happen overnight. Projects can take years to bring online. But I can guarantee you, if producers were guaranteed $200 a barrel. We would be swimming in oil this time next year from over supply.

              “If you cut the supply of energy demand falls and so do prices”

              This is just nonsense. There will be less consumption, but oil demand is very “inelastic” short term. Prices will skyrocket until people figure out alternatives and there are many. One of the problems is a lot of the alternatives are capital intensive and take time.

              “Look no further than China”

              China’s problems are America’s realization of it’s not a good idea to put all your industrialization eggs in one basket. In addition, American could be supplying weapons against China in a future conflict with an American ally.

              “I say $25 what is your guess?”

              Not going to happen for any length of time because it’s below probably over 90 percent of the producers in the world cost to produce. Do you think Cadillac is going to sell you a new Escalade for $25K. They will shut the plant down faster than you can pee before that will ever happen. Also, the U.S. could buy 200 million barrels and refill the SPR. Again, not going to happen.

              You must be a bond trader and think the world revolves around 2’s and 10’s.

            4. Bonds tell you a lot about an economy. Like right now yields are lower in China than they are in Germany.

              That’s with the Chinese government threatening to short sell billions of bonds to force yields up.

              How bad must things be in China?

              BTW the Fed has to act because the 2 year yields are falling and the Feds overnight rate is still at 5.25%

              The market will set interest rates back to zero and the Fed will follow. And why will the market be setting interest rates back to zero? Because growth and inflation expectations are falling fast. And why are growth and inflation expectations falling fast?

              Because monetary conditions are tightening. We’re on the other side of the supply shock now.

              Why is Japanese carry trade unwinding? Is it’s because interest rate differentials? Is it because of falling yields in the US? No it’s because of what falling yields in the US mean for the economy. For the global economy. Which are lower growth and inflation and tightening monetary conditions.

              Japanese investors are just doing what any rational investor would do. They are exiting long positions because those long positions have run their course and there is very little upside to holding onto them.

              The reason there is a net short in Brent oil futures is because there is very little upside to being long oil currently.

              I hear all the time it’s evil speculators and CTA’s or it’s an election year. No it’s the economy. Both the bond and oil markets are yelling loud and clear that the economy is in trouble.

              But, but, but the GDP numbers. What about the GDP numbers? 🤣

    3. Watched a tv show excerpt a few days back in which a doctor was making emergency moves to save a patient’s life over the next few minutes. An intern was protesting that he wasn’t using sterile technique.

      His reply was that he could deal with infection tomorrow…… if the patient lives thru today.

      The Chinese generation expecting to retire is probably the richest in Chinese history…… and will have outlived their parents and grandparents by a decade or two. It’s true that it will be a bleak retirement for them.

      But they will probably have a roof over their heads and something to eat. That’s a hell of an improvement, in historical terms.

      It’s not just the Chinese who will be dealing with austerity a decade or two down the road.

  4. Don’t know if this is good, bad or indifferent but it sounds important?

    INTEREST ON US DEBT SURPASSES $1 TRILLION FOR FIRST TIME EVER

    “2024 was the year when the runaway US budget deficit was supposed to gradually normalize, and after two crisis-years, the US was supposed to end its drunken sailor spending ways. And for a while there, it seemed touch and go, with the cumulative US deficit initially overtaking 2023 – forget about the batshit insane 2021 and 2022 when the deficit hit a mindboglilng 18% of GDP…”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/endgame-interest-us-debt-surpasses-1-trillion-first-time-ever-exploding-august-budget

    1. Definitely time to roll back the Bush and Trump tax cuts for the rich.

      It’s important to keep in mind that public debt is only a small part of total debt. The two are often confused.

  5. “But there’s no putting lipstick on this pig. Mr. Trump was crushed by a woman he previously dismissed as “dumb as a rock.” Which raises the question: What does that make him?”

    Lets not degrade rocks by comparing them to Trump

    1. Peak oil won’t matter much to most people.
      It will be droughts, floods, fires, excess heat and wars and lack of food which will affect most people.

      2. LOADSOFOIL:
        I think that is equally true of climate change, which reminds me of an old, and always apt, saying:
        “It’s hard to remember that your original intent was to drain the swamp when you’re up to your ass in alligators”
        (Ouch. I knew this long before Trump’s “drain the swamp” delusion)

  7. “JD Vance is even more dishonest than Donald Trump. The old guy lies a lot but often he can’t tell the difference between fantasy and reality. He regularly thinks he’s in some other state.

    Vance is a calculating deceiver who has now admitted that he lied for political advantage.”

    More dishonest than Trump?
    Is that possible?

    1. Well, no. Trump is perfectly aware that he’s spinning a fantasy to pander to his base. He’s admitted in his books, long before his adventure into politics, that he thinks it’s ok to say anything to sell stuff.

      1. Trump is not one of the brightest porch lights on the block.
        I think you over estimate his actions.
        A despicable human, but not vey bright.
        A typical repug candidate.

        1. This is a difficult question, and there’s certainly room for disagreement. There are indications that Trump’s college education was poor, and he appears to have a learning disability that make it hard for him to read, so he’s not especially well informed.

          But, Trump is an extremely effective showman and conman. And conmen of this sort are chameleons, able to adapt to their audience, 3/4 believe their own BS, and speak at the level of the audience (his interviews 25 years ago are much more articulate).

          So…don’t be fooled…

          1. Tempting as it is to call someone “stupid” who you think they are acting foolishly, there really are different kinds of intelligence. Trump seems to have a kind of intelligence that enables him to size up a situation and conjure up words and actions to take advantage of it. He understands that he has no ability to gain the votes of most Americans and that his success depends on the support of a segment of the population that has an extremely narrow focus on their own best interest. He has created a strong following of anti-abortion extremists, apocalyptic Christians, racists, amoral tycoons, and whatever other conspiracy theorists who emote a lot more than they think regardless of their measurable intelligence.
            And over 74 million Americans voted for him in 2020. That is a lot more scary than stupid.

            1. I agree with all that, with one quibble:

              Almost all of those issues (abortion, evangelical issues, racism, immigration) are cynical wedge issues which actually hurt Trump’s base. Making abortion (and contraception) more difficult primarily hurts poor and low income folks. Immigration enforcement suppresses wages for both immigrants and low income folks, tariffs are really regressive sales taxes which raise living costs for low income folks, etc.

              Trump’s real constituency is the wealthy, and his administration was focused on cutting taxes for the wealthy, while lowering wages, increasing pollution (which affects low income folks disproportionately), etc., etc.

            2. Nick:
              Republicans learned long ago, probably in the Nixon years, that could no longer win elections if they honestly identified their governing objectives. You have to give them credit for knowing how to manipulate their message to gain support from the very victims of their policies you identify.
              I’m not sure that Trump’s constituency is identical to that of long term Republicans. That’s what you have identified. Constituency, to me, means those for whom policy benefits are directed. Trump has a constituency of one, himself. He will favor any policies that will gain him power, at whatever expense to rich and poor alike.

  8. When you look at the percent of global crude oil consumption that is used for industrial processes (excluding petrochemicals and oil refinery operations) you get 5 to 6 Mbpd.
    https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/oil-demand-by-sector-and-scenario-to-2030

    Or, in the US 8.4% of total energy consumption from crude oil goes to Industrial process [Includes energy consumed for manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, mining, including oil and gas extraction , construction, and combined-heat-and-power (CHP) generators that produce electricity and/or useful thermal output primarily to support the above-mentioned industrial activities]
    https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/images/consumption-by-source-and-sector.pdf

    Or, globally 7.2% of crude oil consumption is for all industrial processes (which a little less than is used for aviation)
    https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/world-oil-final-consumption-by-sector-2018

    Some have argued that non-fossil energy production and deployment capacity additions will cannibalize oil supplies and therefore be a limiting factor to diversifying the global energy supply. That argument looks to be a fallacy. The percent of crude oil that goes to industrial processes of all sorts is small.

  9. How does this gybe with the ‘we’re running out of everything’ message? Prices down and demand strong for big batteries.

    https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/09/13/demand-for-large-capacity-battery-storage-cells-goes-strong-as-prices-continue-to-slide/

    “While the oversupply of lithium is unlikely to reverse, and the long-term trend for lithium carbonate prices will remain downward, a short-term and modest rebound in lithium salt prices can be expected in the coming period with the arrival of the traditional peak season (Sept–Oct). This is expected to prompt increased stocking activity downstream following a period of inventory reduction across the supply chain.”

    1. got2surf

      As a computer guy I should also point out that demand for chips is still much higher than the rapidly growing industry can cope with. We are transitioning from an economy that grows by getting bigger and stronger to one that grows by getting smarter and smarter. More bang for you buck as the saying goes.

      Not a very uplifting message if your career is based on selling fuel though.

  10. Fed does a 50 bps cut and stocks end up in the red at close. Oil down 1.75% on the day.

    Just like I was saying. 50 bps is a no confidence vote on the economy.

      1. Where am I wrong? Fed cut rates with the Stock Market at or near all time highs and unemployment relatively low. Why did they cut 50 bps instead of 25 bps? Why did they cut at all? Everyone is saying there is no way we are going into recession. Why did they cut then?

        The economy is way weaker than we are being lead to believe. It was a no confidence vote. Otherwise they wouldn’t have cut.

        Smart money will be buying bonds. Not stocks. Not oil.

        I think we will see QE restart within 6-8 months from now.
        The employment data is clear. Companies aren’t hiring. They aren’t laying off just yet but they are aren’t hiring.

        M2 money supply peaked in March 2022 and has contracted since. You don’t see that in 2008-2009. You don’t see that in the 1970’s when inflation was high. Good luck with higher prices and valuations as a trend.

        Do you think people are going to immediately go and spend an extra $500 a month in the economy because the FED did a rate cut. Are you going to spend an extra grand during Christmas this year because the FED cut rates? No of course not.

        As energy contracts. Regardless of what type or energy mix is used. The money supply will contract.

        The money supply contraction is the smoking gun here. As long as energy is made available regardless if the price is high or low price energy the money supply will grow. Loans will be made and that energy will be put to use.

        But when the net energy shrinks so does the money supply. Good luck servicing debt with less economic activity or money velocity and less money supply.

    2. DJIA
      41,917.21 414.11 ( 1.00%)
      NASDAQ
      18,048.99 475.69 ( 2.71%)
      S&P 500
      5,712.47 94.21 ( 1.68%)
      Russell 2000
      2,245.68 39.34 ( 1.78%)
      Time (ET)

      11:31:45 AM September 19, 2024

      WTI Crude • 72.09 1.18 1.66%
      Brent Crude • 74.81 1.16 1.58%
      Murban Crude. 74.80 0.94 1.27%
      Natural Gas • 2.348 0.064 2.80%

  11. Henry Kissinger 1973

    I think of myself as a historian more than as a statesman. As a historian, you have to be conscious of the fact that every civilization that has ever existed has ultimately collapsed. History is a tale of efforts that failed, of aspirations that weren’t realized, of wishes that were fulfilled and then turned out to be different from what one expected. So, as a historian, one has to live with a sense of the inevitability of tragedy. As a statesman, one has to act on the assumption that problems must be solved.“

    Probably one of the few moments of clarity ever spoken by a politician. Basically he’s saying that to hold office you have to lie. Given the global geopolitical ecological crisis that the world is facing with depletion of fossil fuel and mineral resources it doesn’t matter one once who’s in office but I guarantee it will be a lier.

    1. Your ‘analysis’ of what he said is completely inaccurate,
      and is a lame attempt to justify the greatest liar in the history of American public life…
      Trump of course.

    2. “Trump’s election fraud lies could cost GOP the House” Today news.

      As of
      “October 22, 2020 at 3:00 a.m. EDT
      UPDATE: The final count for the Trump claims database is 30,573. For more information, follow this link.
      As President Trump entered the final stretch of the election season, he began making more than 50 false or misleading claims a day. It’s only gotten worse — so much so that the Fact Checker team cannot keep up.

      As of Aug. 27 [2022], the tally in our database that tracks every errant claim by the president stood at 22,247 claims in 1,316 days.”

      Now add 2 more years and you’ve got more lies than total people who live in Springfield, OH.

    3. According to psychology, having low expectations can have negative effects, including:

      Low expectations can make people apathetic and unmotivated to try new things or take risks.

      Low expectations can leave potential unrealized because people are afraid to try.

      Low expectations can lead to feelings of helplessness and despair.

      Low expectations can make people more likely to give up, even when they have a good chance of success.

      Low expectations can make people miss out on opportunities, such as meeting new people.

  12. That is the very logic that has propelled mankind into this crisis. No doubt some congressmen back in 1972 when Limits to Growth was presented to them stood up and made a low expectation speech such as yours. Maybe you were there. Ignoring reality doesn’t change it no matter how hard you try. The physical laws of thermodynamics can’t be side stepped for economic convenience.

    But it does make my point that you can’t sell reality you have to sell fantasy and if challenged instead of proving a point scientifically you have to try to humiliate your opponent with name calling.

    If you’re not familiar with Saul Alinsky and Rules for Radicals you should be because you’re commenting is from his play book. It not the substance it’s the persistence in character assassination that gives you the political win. Point out everything your opponent says or does wrong. That not a political platform that children in a sand box which maybe more qualified than the present crop of politicians. (Take note of who the book was dedicated to)

    In any event you can’t win office by telling anyone the truth. They the people don’t want to hear it. So to gain office either you’re too stupid to know the truth or you’re lying.

    If you take the time to study Saul you’ll find a very prominent politician that he tutored. .

Comments are closed.