109 thoughts to “Open Thread Non Petroleum, January 8, 2021”

  1. Where is Blue Blob Bob when you need him?

    COLD WEATHER IN CHINA SENDS COAL, GAS PRICES SKY-HIGH

    “The coldest winter in China since 1966 has sent coal and gas prices soaring as power demand surges. The row erupted when Australia insisted on an international inquiry into the origin of the coronavirus that first appeared in China, which signaled the start of a trade war that has been affecting more and more Australian industries. Yet the spat is affecting China as well at a time when it needs all the coal and gas it can import — much of it sourced from Australia, which accounts for as much as 40 percent of Chinese LNG imports. As a result, China has been forced to pay much higher prices for the commodities it needs to go through the cold spell.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Cold-Weather-In-China-Sends-Coal-Gas-Prices-Sky-High.html

    1. Some good news, but from an economic view.
      If it were profitable, it would be raped.
      We need to get beyond that.
      Or maybe I’m just too cynical?
      But good news.

      1. “Or maybe I’m just too cynical?”

        No, you’re not too cynical because there’s more than enough bad environmental news to go around. It’s just that I spent time doing seismic surveys on the North Slope and always considered the refuge a special treasure, one too wonderful to desecrate. Maybe it will finally be left in piece?

        Speaking of bad stuff………

        2020 ANOTHER GRIM YEAR FOR BRAZILIAN AMAZON

        “Deforestation destroyed the equivalent of more than two football pitches each minute in the Brazilian Amazon in 2020, another devastating year for a resource seen as vital to curbing climate change. Brazilian space agency INPE identified 8,426 square kilometers (3,253 square miles) of Amazon rainforest lost to deforestation in 2020.”

        https://phys.org/news/2021-01-grim-year-brazilian-amazon.html

        1. I spent the summer of 1968 in Alaska (been back several times)– but not on the North Slope.
          The oil rush had not gotten fully started, and it was wild and free.
          Then everything changed.

          Northern BC is still very cool.

  3. Palihapitiya on Elon Musk: World’s richest person should be somebody that’s fighting climate change

    Elon Musk is now the richest person in
    the world as of today passes Jeff Bezos

    In my view this is a huge PR win for those of us who would like to see more done to mitigate Global Warming. As of Jan 7, 2020 the richest person in the world is now someone who takes Global Warming very seriously and has in fact made a business out of trying to do something about it! I do wish he would give the quest to colonize Mars a rest. There is no Planet B. We’ve got to try and keep this one habitable.

    1. I know what you mean about “Planet B”, but fundamentally space exploration is deeply inspirational.

      How many times have you heard someone say “if we can land someone on the moon, we can do X”?

      1. Sending men to the Moon and Mars is a stupid idea. Humans aren’t built to survive in space, so space exploration should be done by robots. John von Neumann pointed this out in the 1950s, and nearly all the real success you see in space ventures is robotic. That won’t change for decades.

        The primary use of space is Earth science. Republicans have been trying to squelch this mission for decades to please the fossil fuel industry. Dreams of Mars colonies should always be seen in that light.

        If there are a million Mars colonists in 2100, it would be amazing. By that time there will be 10 billion people on Earth, so it would only be one in ten thousand of human population. It’s very much an elitist dream.

        1. I understand where you’re coming from, but…I don’t think you can deny the value of the inspiration of human exploration, in addition to the bread and butter of automated/remote control projects.

          Really, the idea that humans should be limited in their exploration by anatomy would mean that most people alive today should move out of places with freezing temperatures to the equator. Heck, part of human success in temperate zones is due to their being inhospitable: the cold kills off bugs and other competitors.

          If God meant people to fly, she would have given us wings…

          1. Fixing planet Earth seems like an aspirational goal to me. Anyway Japanese go players have a saying — Don’t go hunting when your house is on fire.

            1. I know what you mean. I’ve always been surprised by Musk’s willingness to take on incredibly big projects, and then…take on more in addition. It seems excessive and risky. But Musk seems willing to take on any risk. And, I’m always surprised when he succeeds at multiple projects, when succeeding at just one is astonishing.

              I’m astonished, for instance, that Tesla has reached 500,000 vehicles per year. I’m astonished at the success of the space projects.I’ve stopped trying to guess what he’ll be able to do or not do – I just sit back and watch.

      2. Nick G , just wondering ,can we eat ” inspiration ” ? . Maybe you can , but not me .

        1. Actually, inspiration is the most important source of practical results, like food: inspired ideas have dramatically improved farm productivity and increased food production.

          If a whole string of folks hadn’t been inspired to improve food production, (Mcormick reaper, Haber process, Ford tractor, etc., etc., etc.), we’d have a whole lot less food today.

          Hard work by farmers is necessary, but that existed 1,000 years ago. Physical resources like sun, plants, air, soil and water are necessary, but they existed 1,000 years ago.

          What raised food production dramatically? Inspired innovations. Ideas. A long string of “newfangled” ideas.

          Inspiration.

          1. Nick G , was it desperation or inspiration ? Neither of us can answer this because we were not there . Spanish proverb for consolation is ” No evil lasts for 100 years ” . Not a lot of consolation if you are going to die in 5 years . We all have to eat today , so back to you ” can I eat inspiration ” . Better, trying feed the 500 million people in India living below an income of $1 per day with ” inspiration ” , where women and child malnutrition is 60% .Talk is cheap .

            1. Nick , try giving boxes of ” inspiration ” to the public standing in line at the food banks and then post here what happened. It would be interesting. Talk is cheap.

          2. Nick, you inspired me to buy “Democracy in Chains: The Deep History of the Radical Right’s Stealth Plan for America”. Thank you. The introduction alone is worth the price of the book…

            1. I’m very glad to hear that. I think that the history, and the ideas in the book are very important. They illuminate and explain a lot our current problems.

              Here’s a big example: the primary reason for these allegations of electoral fraud is a long-term project of voter suppression, especially of black and Democratic voters, using poll taxes, literacy tests, voter IDs etc., etc. Trump took advantage of this, and I think Republicans are horrified that he showed the dark side of this project, and shone a spotlight on how unrealistic the allegations are.

              Why did Republican Senators and Representatives support the allegations of voter fraud? Not primarily because they supported Trump’s attempt to stay in office. No. It was in support of the long-term project to suppress the vote.

              You can’t understand what’s going on today without this kind of history of ideas.

            2. Nick , yes productivity is low . Example wheat is 3 metric tonnes per hectare . World average is 4.63 . New Zealand is top with 10 ,China is 6 ,Ukraine is 4 . The reasons are
              1.Fragmanted land holding : 80/85 % of the farmers are marginal having land of less than 4 hectares ,so economy of scale cannot be applied .
              2 . Only 23 % of the farmland is fed by irrigation . 77 % is rain dependent . The monsoon is the Prime Minister, finance minister and industry minister all in one .
              3. Just like all recessions worldwide are preceded by higher oil prices ,similarly all recessions in India are preceded by droughts .

            3. HiH,

              A little reading indicates that the average family farm is about 1.1 hectares, and that they get smaller every generation as farms get split up among the heirs. In contrast the average US family farm is about 100x larger at 100 hectares (and the average US farm overall is about 180 hectares).

              Seems like a setup for extreme poverty. Should the Indian government try to promote larger farms, rather than subsidize this grinding slide into predictable poverty?

            4. Nick ,yes 1.1 hectare is the average . The govt classifies below 4 hectares as cutoff for farmers to receive subsidies . Anyway it is not so very important . Coming to your second part , there are several reasons but I will enumerate a few .
              1. Politics : Agriculture land reform is a state subject . The poor farmers are a vote bank .The politician works more to fill his pockets then to work on legislation . Better to keep them poor and dependent on the state .
              2. Illiteracy : Out of total 1.3 billion 80% is rural (850-900 million) . 70 % illiteracy rate in India(50% of the world illiterates are in India) . No education, no skill ,no job . What will the small /marginal farmer do if he looses his land ? Work as a street vendor, man/maid servant , haul bricks in construction in a big city . He will not sell the land as at least it provides him enough to eat and sustain himself . At the low level barter prevails .
              3. Irrigation : Already informed you about the irrigation problem . India is water starved . Groundwater levels are dangerously low . Making canals and diverting rivers is for the govt and not individuals .The govt has failed . So even if consolidation was to take effect the farmer would still be dependent on the monsoon .
              There are other factors specific to India example caste system etc which I will not amplify . So not going to happen. Poverty is their destiny and they know it . Tragic but that is reality .

            6. Nick , so let me tell you a personal story and why I left India . In 1985/86 or so I was on a flight from New York to Delhi . My co passenger was working at UNESCO . We started talking and he said ” you speak real good English ” . I said ” so what so many in India speak like me . He said” you don’t know nothing” . UNESCO defines a person who knows all the alphabets of his script as literate . The GOI counts everybody who can write his name as literate . So if you can write Nick, you are literate but if you can’t write HIH you are still literate . He gave me the data that currently (1985/86) 50% of the population is illiterates and by 2000, guess what 50 % of the world illiterate will be in India . He hit the bullseye . No education , no skills and no jobs was / is a recipe for disaster . I decided there and then I will immigrate . What Wikipedia writes is whatsoever , I know the reality . No , I am not based in India today (thanks heaven ) but I still have an ear to the ground since I have a vast network of family and associates .

            7. HiH,

              It seems that you feel that India is doing far worse than most countries, even other developing countries. Why do you think that is?

            8. Nick , simple answer . A combination of ” Overshoot ” and ” Limits to growth ” . I have posted that earlier , maybe you missed .

            9. HiH,

              But…why the difference between India and other developing countries?

            10. Nick , not possible to pinpoint the reason for the difference . Too many factors . Is it the way society is structured along caste lines , is it that India chose a socialist system instead of capitalism from 1947 to 1990 , is it because not enough was spent on education ? Developmental economists have written books about this . However ” overshoot ” is the fundamental factor .

    2. I honestly don’t see how Musk, a questionable character at best, being top of the Fortune rich list is a win for anyone but Musk. His EVs and solar panels are not going to stop climate change, and they sure don’t help ecological matters when it comes to extractive harm. And, as you point out, he is into the delusional thinking of setting up a back up planet on a literally inhospitable rock.

      Technology is not going to get us out of a cultural problem. But that’s a difficult pill to swallow, much better to be, as noted below by Nick, aspirational and getting a Tesla and a better green home.

      1. You’re right, it is a cultural & political problem: we as a society are refusing to use new technology to it’s fullest.

        The primary cause of climate change is fossil fuels: they need to be replaced with renewable power as soon as possible. Fortunately it’s possible and practical to replace fossil fuels completely. That would mostly save money, and where it was a bit more expensive than the status quo it would still be affordable (and cheaper when you include externalities).

        Here’s a good overview:

        “This section is meant as a primer to the world of climate change and renewable energy. CleanTechnica has posted over 40,000 articles since its inception in 2008. However, reading all of them would take months, so the following is a distillation of the key pieces of the puzzle.

        Renewable Energy Basics

        These articles cover the bare minimum you need to know about climate change and defeating it. They explain how 100% renewable energy is already possible and modeled, why it would cost less than what we pay now for power, and why the real problem is motivation and not technology to prevent 1.5°C or more of global temperature rise.”

        https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/08/the-beginners-guide-to-climate-change-renewables/

      2. KLEIBER,
        Techno-optimists shilling for their hero frequent this blog. They’ve been at it for years. Fred Magyar wandered away from this fine blog shortly after calling me a “Russian fossil fuel troll” because I dared to question the stream of consciousness tweets posted by Elon Musk. The Fanbois make no mention of BYD, or any other industry leader. Obvious shills, It’s pathetic.

        Keep your eyes on these 9 electric truck and van companies in 2021

        https://www.greenbiz.com/article/keep-your-eyes-these-9-electric-truck-and-van-companies-2021

        1. I wrote three top posts on Electric Commercial Vehicles and as far as I remember, if I mentioned Tesla it was just in passing or referring to future projects. I spent a considerable amount of time discussing Chinese government policy and it’s effects on EV manufacturing in China with a specific emphasis on buses. BYD buses were specifically mentioned.

          Unlike the market for private vehicles, Tesla’s presence in the market for commercial vehicles is zero at the moment. In fact most of the major players in the commercial vehicle segment already have products for sale or at an advanced stage of development. Since I wrote the articles the offerings the were mentioned have been expanded. Maybe it’s time to dust off the work I had been doing on products were close to being introduced and those in the pipeline, of which the Tesla Semi is but a single one. Here’s a list of some of the big (mostly European) names with EVs on the market or in the pipeline.

          Daimler/Freightliner/Mitsubishi Fuso
          Nissan/Renault
          Volvo
          DAF
          Scania
          Mann/Volkswagen
          Kenworth
          Isuzu

        2. The Fanbois make no mention of BYD, or any other industry leader.

          The comments I see here about Musk are primarily from people attacking him. I don’t care much about him personally, but personal attacks are pretty obviously attempts to distract from the success of Tesla (which has been critical to the success of EVs in general).

          Kleiber makes that clear: he doesn’t like wind, solar or EVs. Whether he admits it or not (or even realizes it), he’s acting as a fossil fuel advocate.

        3. Fred Magyar was a great loss to this blog and he was absolutely correct about you. You are the worst shill on this blog. How much BYD do you own?

          1. I agree, I miss Fred Magyar, but he seems to have moved on. I hope he is doing well.

          2. What a ridiculous question about BYD
            Obviously you don’t agree with his point of view, but regarding facts and data I bet he knows at least 1000 times more than you

            1. I assume Han, that you haven’t seen the pattern over multiple years where Survivalist has denigrated Elon Musk and Tesla and then proceeded to lionize BYD over and over again. After a few dozen times doing that, it gets on my nerves.

              Your bet?…lol, that is irrelevant, to say the least. Just how would you know? I follow the sector fairly closely and used to enjoy talking about it out here. But with the negative personalities like Survivalist and the departure of people like Fred Magyar, that isn’t near as fun as it used to be

            2. Songster, sorry, I thought that your comment referred to one of Nick’s comment. ‘My bet’ is irrelevant, correct

      4. Question : Elon Musk ,richest man on the planet or prison .
        Answer : Ask Jack Ma .
        🙂

      5. The main thing is that he stay out of politics. I hate it when rich people, or movie stars, pontificate and tell regular folks what they should think, do, and how to live. If asked, fair game, but they can fund worthwhile initiatives quietly without being Kochs or Mercers.

        1. A big part of Tesla’s success has been “PR”. Free advertising created by a string of loud characters, Musk being the latest and loudest. He’s made some notable mistakes, but he’s also been inspirational. The purpose of his various projects is very important to their success, and customers and competitors have to hear lots of noise about them for them to be successful.

          1. Nick G , several years ago I read an article by a hedge fund manager who went from ” Hero to Zero ” . His parting line was ” Don’t mistake luck for genius ” . Mr Musk is not excluded from this rule .

            1. Absolutely. To succeed you need both good ideas AND great luck. Tesla came within millimetres of failing, several times.

        2. Also his political instincts are terrible. He doesn’t understand city and traffic planning at all, as shown by his dumb idea to dig tunnels to send individual cars across town, and his attitude towards Covid 19 is hideous.

      6. The Sickly Monoculture Species

        Fred appeared pro industrial technology and government and yet sometimes appeared in contradiction with that, which I pointed out to his chagrin and despite his personal attacks.

        Likewise WRT the technological sense with some hereon and everywhere else who do not realize that what they think of and propose is not fundamentally viable.

        The overspecialization of the human– career, job, etc.– is like the stripping out of the natural flora and fauna for, say, palm oil plantations.
        Won’t work.
        Like monoculture, you know?
        It will only work for awhile, while it messes things up under the radar– or within it, just with a blind eye turned. Lot’s of blind eyes.

        One of the only ways– or maybe the only way– I see this sort of general setup as being viable is by a rewrite of the human being, after collapse(s) paved by the ultimate non-viability of its attempts.

        But careful what you wish for. Ask yourself honestly what kind of consequences– causes and effects– will there be of our ventures into the ongoing engineering of the human and terrestrial ecosystems.
        I already strongly suspect the answer and so am writing it right now here for you. It’s not good.

        Electric cars and general industrialization don’t happen in a vacuum or come without consequences.

        In any event, while I don’t miss the internet-virtual/text-basd concept of ‘Fred’ or being online in general for that matter (yes, do think about that in my presented context too)– I do wish him well in real life, if he exists.

    3. Yeah, 100 more like him and we’re saved lol

      Elon Musk now has another lavish Gulfstream private jet in his arsenal

      https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-acquire-second-gulfstream-private-jet-faa-records-2020-8

      Elon Musk should be able to fly his jet anywhere he wants

      https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-should-fly-his-gulfstream-g650er-jet-anywhere-he-wants-2019-1

      Elon Musk’s highflying 2018: What 150,000 miles in a private jet reveal about his ‘excruciating’ year

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/elon-musks-highflying-2018-what-150000-miles-in-a-private-jet-reveal-about-his-excruciating-year/2019/01/29/83b5604e-20ee-11e9-8b59-0a28f2191131_story.html

      Elon Musk’s Carbon Footprint

      “Musk’s flying footprint for 2018 was 1.4 M kg CO2, or 1.3 kt (kilotonnes). US per capita CO2 emissions are about 17 t CO2/yr, so Musk’s total is equivalent to about 77 Americans. But World per capita CO2 emissions are about 5 t CO2/yr, so Musk’s emissions were equivalent to 263 average world citizens”

      https://davidappell.blogspot.com/2019/01/elon-musks-carbon-footprint.html?m=1

      Trumpsters and Musk-ovites (nice Russian ring to it) are more similar than they like to admit.

      Characteristics Associated With Cults
      http://cultresearch.org/help/characteristics-associated-with-cults/

      1. Your argument is the same one that was leveled against Al Gore and is a staple of climate denialists and fossil fuel apologists.

        https://newrepublic.com/article/144199/al-gores-carbon-footprint-doesnt-matter

        And the exact same argument has been spread by Russian propaganda outlets like Russia Today.

        https://www.rt.com/usa/442558-friedman-nyt-climate-change-mansion/

        Pretending that looking for a technical solution to climate problems is a cult is another popular argument being pushed by the Russians.

        https://www.rt.com/op-ed/327973-charity-showbiz-stars-business-politics/

        If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…

        1. Breeding In Captivity

          Read my argument which I suspect is ironclad.

          It has the added benefit of throwing on its head the often (mindlessly?) repeated ‘education of women’ as some sort of population-reduction panacea/silver-bullet…

          You see, if the ‘socioecosystemic’ viability of the human/human spirit is ‘strip-mined’ so that ‘everything is taken care of with a job/career for money to buy’, then the human animal is less likely to ‘breed in captivity’.

          And that’s precisely what it is; captivity.
          The Matrix. The Truman Show. Plato’s Cave. A Human Zoo. The nation-state. The corporation.

          A particular society that a certain level/style of technology demands (human and ecological ‘monocultures’) is, again, fundamentally at odds with the human and ecosystem and therefore, its own viability.

      2. Once again, this time from Alim instead of Fred Magyar, any criticism of Musk is met with accusations of a treasonous nature.

        For those interested in the Musk phenomenon, a read up on the characteristics of cults is quite worth it.

        http://cultresearch.org/help/characteristics-associated-with-cults/

        THE NEW SCIENTOLOGY OF ELON MUSK

        “Elon Musk’s mythology is full of Promethean tasks for mankind, and as with any religion, they are spearheaded by the Prophet himself.”

        https://limitedhangoutblog.com/2018/03/25/the-new-scientology-of-elon-musk/

        1. The question is: why do you care about Musk? People who care about alternatives to fossil fuels don’t care much about Musk himself. I couldn’t care less about him as a person – I care about what he does to deal with climate change, oil addiction, etc.

          People who consider dealing with climate change & oil addiction as mythical “promethean tasks” are simply peddling climate denialism.

        2. Dont be ridiculous, I am no fan of Elon Musk. I just dont like dishonest arguments. But fear not, I wont respond again to yours.

        3. Not to worry, Survivalist; Musk’s et al.’s ventures are toast because they depend on particular setups that are, themselves, toast.

          When a society strips away not just viable ecosystems for its monocultures, but also most things that make humans, human, collapse is only a matter of time.

          “Someone has written a book about the children and their need for their, just simply, emotional and mental development to have contact with the mountains, with the air, the sea, with the dawn, the sunset, the trees, the birds, the song of the birds. Children that don’t have these experiences have no real idea of the world they live in. They live in a house, in a school, in a city that’s all manufactured. And they begin to be progressively isolated from the basic dynamics of what human life is all about.” ~ Thomas Berry

          “If ever there were people in the state of nature, and as a matter of repeated historical fact it took violence to impose a state upon them, it seems pertinent to ask, Why does standard political theory regard it as a basic verity that they preferred the state…? ~ Anthony de Jasay

      1. ” when his primary accomplishments so far have been based on so many lies ”

        I’m not aware of anything worth mentioning he’s accomplished other than in the line of business.

        His cars are real, his rockets are real, his solar roofs are real,his tunnels are real, etc.

        Some of his other ideas such as hyperloop etc may be realities within a few more years.

        Suppose you enlighten us about his many lies.

        I don’t see his dreams about MARS coming true, but in terms of the big picture, his obsession with Mars is trivial.

  5. Follow the omens . Paulo Coelho in The Alchemist
    1. Defacto President Elect USA Kamala Harris
    2 . Most powerful in EU Angela Merkel
    3. President of EU Van der Leyen
    4. Sec of Treasury Janet Yellen
    5. Head of IMF Kristalina Georgieva
    6 . Head of ECB Christine Lagarde
    7 . Head of US at UN Linda Thomas
    All women are at the top of the most powerful decision making . What does this omen mean .?
    Disclaimer ; Correlation is not causation . However as Shakespeare said ” the fault lies not with you but your stars ” . 😉

    1. Well, us men have truly screwed things up,
      Give women a chance– it can’t get worse.

      1. I like Merkel. She is a well spoken and thoughtful scientist. It goes a little further for me than wealth, being a celebrity, or having a set of leg tackle. My favourite politician these days is NZ Jacinda Ardern. (No more active Covid and a ban on assault rifles).

  6. Merkel ‘s background is of a scientist but she has morphed into a political animal , the number of flipflops she has done would qualify her for a gold medal in gymnastics . As for Jacinda ,yes she is popular( only in NZ) but she would not register on the power-o- meter . To be PM of an island nation with more sheep than humans is not enough to qualify as a someone powerful . Victoria Nuland Undersecretary ( not even a secretary or deputy secretary) of political affairs (appointed ) has more weightage than Jacinda .

    1. Oh, those darned light weights getting rid of assault weapons and stopping Covid.

      As opposed to those heavy weight US political appointees. USA has 500 million chickens. Does that mean Victoria Nuland is important? Your reply was idiotic.

      Stop white power terrorism, ban auto weapons, fix healthcare, stop the corporate ownership of the political class, then by all means let’s talk about about US key political ‘heavyweights’. Maybe right after that smooth transfer of power.

      1. Paulo , I gave Nuland as an example as she has the ear of POTUS and so has more power than Jacinda . I do not live in the USA so for me her stand on guns etc is not important . However my personal opinion is that Hillary and Nuland are evil personified and if both were to drown in the Hudson it would be ” good riddance to bad rubbish “

  7. Trigger warning.

    BYD ADL partnership accelerates electrification with the design and assembly of electric bus chassis in the UK

    “ Since it began in 2015, the partnership has gone from strength to strength, with over 500 electric buses delivered or on order. They have clocked up a combined over 16 million emission-free miles of reliable service in London as well as numerous towns and cities across the UK. More than 70% of electric buses introduced in Britain in this period were supplied by the BYD ADL partnership.”

    Clean transport, sans the attention seeking narcissist with 6 kids.

    1. Trigger warning.

      You’ve gotten confused, perhaps by listening to conservatives who attack “liberals” as being too sensitive (the same conservatives who attack Tesla & Musk).

      People who would like to see EVs succeed don’t care if it’s Tesla or BYD who makes it happen.

    2. If you would have said BYD shill warning, you would have been right.

      1. Brigaded by the Fanbois, again. And for what, telling it like it is.

        1. “In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts flame wars or intentionally upsets people on the Internet. Typically they do this by posting inflammatory and digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog), with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses[2] and normalizing tangential discussion.[3] This is typically for the troll’s amusement, or to achieve a specific result such as disrupting a rival’s online activities or manipulating a political process.”

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

    1. Company presentations . Read the fine print ” non-binding production reservations ” . It means nothing but that they have enquiries . Similar affairs in the airline industry where Boeing and Airbus at trade shows announce inquiries as orders .

      1. That’s why I stated “Lordstown Motors CLAIMS to have more than 100 000 preorders”

        1. Sorry boss , we are on the same page so no hassle . Keep up the good work .

    1. I ‘m a world class rolling stone, and major league class jackass of all trades, lol.
      Been working on vehicles and farm machinery since I was a kid, and probably have ten years or so full time equivalent experience, spread over the last sixty years.

      Today’s cars and trucks outlast the ones built in the seventies by roughly a factor of two, meaning the ones built since around the turn of the century, if they’re reasonably well maintained.

      But slowing sales haven’t done poor people much good, if any, because the market for good serviceable cheap used cars and trucks is tight as a banjo string.

      1. I agree with most of OFM’s thoughts but bloody hell . . . .

        “Today’s cars and trucks outlast the ones built in the seventies by roughly a factor of two,”

        No way is that correct in the Australian context.

        Cars in general are reasonably reliable for the first few years but, when out of warranty, can become a minefield, often with minor but almost diagnosable electronic problems. Unlike in previous eras they are beyond the repair abilities of the home mechanic and in many cases even the dealers . . . they just want to fit new parts at a prohibitive cost.

        No one in this country rebuilds engines or transmissions . . . a friend has just had a quote to replace an engine in a v6 Nissan Navara . . . $42000.

        With the plastics, paint and panels used on modern cars a basic ding will cost a thousand bucks . . . and so it goes.

        I wont even start on crap being dished out by the earthmoving equipment manufacturers to the extent that precomputerised excavators are being bought up all over the Pacific and refurbished for work in remote areas . . . as I have said before thigs started going downhill when they took the pony motors off Cats and started putting turbos on two stroke Jimmys.

        1. SCRUB PULLER

          Yeah, my mechanic would agree with you. Claims every model is worse than the previous one. Main bitch is unreliable/unrepairable/expensive electronics. My son-in-law just got a F-450 pickup that cost his company about $80,000 (Canada) and, among things, was warned to be careful opening drivers door in wind because door can snap forward and bend hinges or crumple the mental that the hinges are fastened to. A so-called “heavy duty” truck! My 20 year old F-250 still runs fine, no electronics and could probably open doors safely in a hurricane.

          1. “My 20 year old F-250 still runs fine, no electronics and could probably open doors safely in a hurricane.”

            Yeh Doug, electronics, overhead cams and aluminum are not a reliable mix . . . remember when we used water as a coolant? (grins)

          2. Electronics is pretty much taking over every aspect of cars, step by step. High end pickups are sold based on comfy seats and good entertainment systems.Meanwhile the mechanical system are being replaced by simpler electronics systems.

        2. Scrubpuller , $ 42000 is crazy . 10 years ago I had an engine rebuilding unit in Budapest(Hungary ) . I use to export rebuilt VW 1.9TDI engines fitted with pump and turbo at $ 3000 FOB to USA . I wish I was young( now past expiry date ) , I would move to OZ and use this business opportunity . 🙂 . Be well .

          1. Gentelmen’

            For the life of me I never thought that I would read a practical string of thoughts and observations like these today on this site. Reality is reality.
            As an engineer and someone with about 55 years of experience working on cars and cussing Detroit engineers, I was, is and plan to be one who keeps things simple. There has been no real need to make cars and trucks 4 wheel platforms for electronic everything. Yes, the basic drive trains are reliable but the electronics are the wild cards and heaven forbid there be some common components between brands. About 25 years ago I watched a GM executive explain the plan to change pickup trucks from work vehicles to those more attractive to urbanites and the like; form over function.
            Anyone here fondly remember the 5.9 Cummins 12 valve, the Million Mile Motor?
            A point that I have been tempted to make here for a while is that the general population, perhaps worldwide, doesn’t have the money for hybrids or EVs or the access to local, affordable repairs. Not being too snarky but how many that comment here have been across the tracks long enough to notice that so many low income earners (which is no small segment of the US population) drive around in 15+ year old SUVs with the check engine light on permanently?
            It would be my supposition that the EV revolution, at least in the US, will be paid for by the government, that is all of us. Beyond that I am not qualified to speculate on the effects to the economy. Right about now 1T expenditures are becoming commonplace so why not play out the old slogan “…a chicken in every pot and a (EV) car in every garage”? Sarcasm definitely intended.
            Please educate me where I’ve jumped the shark.

            1. “Anyone here fondly remember the 5.9 Cummins 12 valve, the Million Mile Motor?” A few get why am I driving a beat-up junker nicked named Megatron. It’s a trip. a 2001 RAM 5.9 manual which they can bury me with. will pull anything known with little fuel at 60 mph. must run fuel additive – it’s pre-ultra low sulfur fuel. Absolute junk except the Motor and Drivetrain. For trips, we rent or drive base Tesla M3.

      2. One of the best things about EVs is that they need virtually no maintenance.

        Back in the 1980’s, I used to work on a car nearly every weekend.

        Owning a Nissan Leaf for 10 years and a Chevy Volt for 9 years, I have had to replace tires, wiper blades, cabin air filter, tire pressure sensor. Nothing in the drive train. No expensive electronics.

        I did have to replace the battery on the Leaf after 9 years — no, not THAT battery, just the little 12-volt lead-acid battery that runs the accessories.

  10. BYD Wins the Largest Pure-Electric Bus Order outside of China
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210111006106/en/ BYD-Wins-the-Largest-Pure-Electric-Bus-Order-outside-of-China

    Big news in the EV world- up 6%. Up 50% in 4 months.

    There are two ways to go on Musk- One is to evaluate his past predictions and promises. It’s not a good look. The other is to inspect the “vision” he expounds in public, which is drivel: a mix of nerd New Age, contempt for common people, and neoliberalism- Trump for nerds; the end of substance and the triumph of spectacle.

    I’m excited to see the weird sycophant who allows Elon Musk to trepan his skull and put a computer in there.

    1. Leaving Mr Musk aside . 1002 buses . Colombia is broke . Who will pay ? Of course the Chinese govt . Call it buying influence ,call it vendor finance ,call it what you may .

  11. I’ll take “over promise and under deliver vs quiet professionalism” for $500 Alex.

    Tesla: 3 Years After Its Public Unveiling, The Tesla Semi Is Still Stuck In Development
    “Speaking before an ecstatic audience, CEO Elon Musk boasted of the Semi’s out-of-this-world capabilities. He also stated that commercial deliveries would begin in 2019 in earnest.”
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397998-tesla-3-years-after-public-unveiling-tesla-semi-is-still-stuck-in-development

    Is the electric semi ready to charge down a highway near you?
    “ NFI is now testing ten eCascadias”
    https://ajot.com/premium/ajot-is-the-electric-semi-ready-to-charge-down-a-highway-near-you

    1. Musk has eventually delivered on his promises about cars, rockets, solar panels, and batteries.
      He is probably limited by available resources in terms of talent and capital to the point one or another major undertaking has to be put on a back burner.

      My guess is the semi is on the back burner. Battery supplies are tight for instance and batteries enough for one semi are probably enough for a dozen cars, maybe more.

      And the available technology may be leapfrogging development work already done earlier……. so that design work done a year or two ago may be obsolete now without ever being put to use.

      There are big changes underway involving how structural parts are produced for instance. A few large cast parts are being used in place of many smaller parts that are welded together in the new model cars.

      The battery tech coming on line now or within the next year or two may mean it’s worthwhile to just wait for it.

      My guess is that Tesla trucks will be seen on the highway in significant numbers within four or five years.

      Better late than never, lol.

    2. “If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer…”
      — Thoreau

  12. Island Boy does us up first class with his regular articles about the changing energy scene, but it never hurts to point out some things a second or third time……. especially when doing so highlights how this information is now widely available in middle of the road financial websites and magazines, etc.

    https://www.ft.com/content/225dacb0-fa6e-4f38-a8d2-64517731a228

    Wind and sun are going to start seriously eating into natural gas in Texas within the next few years.

    I wonder how long it will be before Texas has so much wind and solar juice available that it becomes a no brainer for Texas business men to use electric cars and trucks on the basis of operating costs alone.

    The best possible place to store any surplus wind and solar juice is going to be in a vehicle battery, which is ALREADY in service……. no additional infra structure other than charging stations necessary, and charging stations are going to be dirt cheap…….. smaller ones can be as cheap as a dryer outlet, and still be ample for a car or pickup used over a hundred miles per day.

    I see Texans using electricity so they will have more natural gas, gasoline and diesel fuel to sell to their less fortunate neighbors up north, lol.

  13. OFM , for your interest . The farmers agitation in India has now reached boiling point . Eminent confrontation between the police and the farmers on 26th January , the Republic Day of India . Situation critical . The Delhi police is desperate to avoid the confrontation . They have asked intervention of the Supreme Court . Intelligence reports leaked say another Tiananmen . The farmers are braced up for martyrdom . Will keep you updated .

  14. Looking ahead folks (beyond the pandemic). Source: GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY THREATS SECTION OF FRONTIERS IN CONSERVATION SCIENCE

    WORRIED ABOUT EARTH’S FUTURE? THE OUTLOOK IS WORSE THAN EVEN SCIENTISTS CAN GRASP

    “The human population has reached 7.8 billion – double what it was in 1970—and is set to reach about 10 billion by 2050. More people equals more food insecurity, soil degradation, plastic pollution and biodiversity loss. Essentially, humans have created an ecological Ponzi scheme. Consumption, as a percentage of Earth’s capacity to regenerate itself, has grown from 73% in 1960 to more than 170% today. High-consuming countries like Australia, Canada and the US use multiple units of fossil-fuel energy to produce one energy unit of food. Energy consumption will therefore increase in the near future, especially as the global middle class grows. Then there’s climate change. Humanity has already exceeded global warming of 1°C this century, and will almost assuredly exceed 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052. Even if all nations party to the Paris Agreement ratify their commitments, warming would still reach between 2.6°C and 3.1°C by 2100.”

    https://phys.org/news/2021-01-earth-future-outlook-worse-scientists.html

    https://doi.org/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419

    1. Meanwhile,

      FOREST LOSS ‘HOTSPOTS’ BIGGER THAN GERMANY

      “More than 43 million hectares of forest — an area bigger than Germany — have been lost in a little over a decade in just a handful of deforestation hotspots. Swathes of forest continue to be flattened each year — mainly due to industrial-scale agriculture—as biodiversity-rich areas are cleared to create space for livestock and crops. Analysis by WWF found that just 29 sites across South America, Africa and South East Asia were responsible for more than half of the global forest loss.”

      https://phys.org/news/2021-01-forest-loss-hotspots-bigger-germany.html

    2. Consumption, as a percentage of Earth’s capacity to regenerate itself, has grown from 73% in 1960 to more than 170% today.

      That’s mostly absorption of CO2. But, that assumes that CO2 is an essential waste. Fossil fuel is not essential, and so CO2 is not an essential waste. Instead, it’s a pollutant. It’s a pollutant that can be eliminated, as lead was eliminated from paint and gasoline.

  15. Don’t know about EVs but lots of spanking new (diesel powered) semis on the horizon, ?

    DECEMBER CLASS 8 TRUCK ORDERS ARE THE FOURTH HIGHEST IN HISTORY

    “As Alan Adler at Freightwaves writes, the surge in bookings reflects continued demand for consumer goods, an awakening of the manufacturing sector and robust fleet profits from tight freight capacity. A driver shortage is worsened by closed driving schools. Other drivers are sidelined because they failed drug tests. All of these factor into higher per-mile freight rates…

    In a Thursday note from JPMorgan, the largest US commercial bank said it expects production of ~250,000 units in 2021 (up 17% YoY) and ~258,000 units in 2022 (up 3% YoY). Meanwhile, December demand for Class 5-7 trucks recorded its second-best ever volume at 35,100 units. Medium-duty orders rose 28% over November and 73% compared to last December.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/december-class-8-truck-orders-are-fourth-highest-history

  16. Touch of reality going into 2021. The clock is ticking!

    ‘EXCEPTIONALLY HOT’ 2020 CONCLUDES WARMEST DECADE

    “While greenhouse gases declined by around 7% globally last year in response to the coronavirus shutdowns, this wasn’t enough to affect temperatures. Because we haven’t stopped doing that and, in fact, we continue to do that even with the pandemic, we’re still putting our foot on the accelerator of climate change. We anticipate that the planet will continue to warm at the rate that it has and maybe even accelerate, unless we get those emissions down, and that’s a big task.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55663544

    1. I used to trust generally the BBC’s reporting on political issues such as climate change. Then they started showing the faces of the climate experts they were getting information from.

      1. Always nice to have a teachable moment:

        “In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts flame wars or intentionally upsets people on the Internet. Typically they do this by posting inflammatory and digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog), with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses[2] and normalizing tangential discussion.[3] This is typically for the troll’s amusement, or to achieve a specific result such as disrupting a rival’s online activities or manipulating a political process.”

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

        1. Oh, please, you’re the troll for trying to change the topic of discussion. Which is, climate science is using people who look like wackos with blue hair as representatives of the science.

          1. Oh,my, you think people will take this line of discussion seriously? Wow,

            Okay, well, first, climate change isn’t a “political issue”, it’s a scientific issue.

            2nd, blue hair really isn’t that scary. My Sunday school teacher used to have blue hair…

            1. Climate Change is a political issue just like Covid because dealing with the issue centers completely on whether government should restrict personal freedoms and how much they should restrict them. Also, what do you think are the political leanings of people who use blue hair dye? Leftist for sure.

            2. They’re both scientific issues that have been politicized by the right.

              There’s really no question among scientists about climate change, and dealing with it doesn’t require losing personal freedom: electric vehicles are just as “free” as ICEs, and wind and solar power will power your hair dryer just as well as coal. The only ones who are hurt are the investors and employees in the obsolete industry. Of course, that’s what capitalism and free markets are supposed to be all about: leaving behind the old and embracing “creative destruction” (a quote from Hayek).

              Similarly, wearing a mask is only controversial if you decide to make it so. Such a trivial sacrifice to make people safer…

              political leanings of people who use blue hair dye? Leftist for sure.

              My Sunday school teacher would be so shocked to hear that! On a slightly more serious note, I wish that were true. Sadly, blue hair is just a fashion. It does seem to be more popular with “the young people”, but unfortunately youth does not necessarily bring wisdom, and blue hair folk can be fooled by right wing misinformation almost as easily as other generations. And, of course, being “left” doesn’t necessarily mean being wise, but most of the positions of “the left” are more sensible.

      2. You used to trust the BBC until you saw the blue hair? I’m guessing you’re a Qtard.

      3. JARED —

        The BBC reporter is summarizing information obtained from the UK Met Office, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and others. You can easily peruse her sources if you wish.

      4. Books and Blue Hair.
        A lefty for sure.
        Probably even reads them– a commie!

        1. Wow – I didn’t even notice the books in the background. Subversion hiding in plain sight!

    1. The sensible answer would be a long-term tax increase for very high incomes, allocated for debt paydown: high income folk tend to save their income, rather than spend it, so it wouldn’t slow down the economy.

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