78 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, January 11, 2025”

    1. 5 weeks ago MAGA said we couldn’t afford eggs. Now we’re buying Greenland lol

        1. I can afford eggs quite fine, but get them for free anyway; my friends have a lot of chickens. Good luck invading; Fort Liberty is mostly a bunch of suicidal pedo MDMA/coke heads these days. Google it. Learn about the army you’re so proud of.

          1. Not my army, mate. I’m talking about the powers that be that run the lovely bastion of democracy and freedom that is America. Where it’s much more important to ban a video app than stop a genocide, to tell other nations that enacting their sovereign rights is bad unless the US does it, and shafting your allies for a percentage is just how the world works.

            Since we live in a comedic timeline, the best outcome now is that the TikTok ban causes a revolution in the US and those guys wake the fuck up.

            Greenland for the Greenlanders.

            1. TikTok’s out of USA because they didn’t censor the genocide; can’t be controlled like the rest.

            2. Yep.

              If they cared so much about data collection, seems rather curious that Instagram and Temu still exist to download.

    2. Probably goes well with drill baby drill. They might actually turn Greenland green in the short term.

    3. Supposedly Greenland is full of Rare Earths needed for batteries.

      Don’t underestimate Elon Musk’s influence here.

      Get the government to buy/acquire it and who will be the primary beneficiary?

  2. How Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 53 Days
    (He used the constitution to shatter the constitution)

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/01/hitler-germany-constitution-authoritarianism/681233/
    (paywall?)

    Joseph Goebbels, who was present that day as a National Socialist Reichstag delegate, would later marvel that the National Socialists had succeeded in dismantling a federated constitutional republic entirely through constitutional means. Seven years earlier, in 1926, after being elected to the Reichstag as one the first 12 National Socialist delegates, Goebbels had been similarly struck: He was surprised to discover that he and these 11 other men (including Hermann Göring and Hans Frank), seated in a single row on the periphery of a plenary hall in their brown uniforms with swastika armbands, had—even as self-declared enemies of the Weimar Republic—been accorded free first-class train travel and subsidized meals, along with the capacity to disrupt, obstruct, and paralyze democratic structures and processes at will. “The big joke on democracy,” he observed, “is that it gives its mortal enemies the means to its own destruction.”

    1. Thanks john. The guardrails have been dismantled. Those with short memory have handed the keys of the nation to those who intend to play democracy and rule of law only when it suits them.
      Who gets the robot, and detention centers, contracts?

    2. Yes the American people would rather vote for a rapist and liar than the democrats candidate. Wtf does that say about the Democrat party ? Surely they have some blame in all this, no ?

        1. Maybe they should try not being tone deaf to the essential needs of the middle class U.S voter who is losing faith in the system. Trumps PR team is too smart for the Democrat party.

  3. To those whose comments got lost when I deleted my own: Sorry. I’m just tired of beating the dead horse of a lost election.

    2. “I’m just tired of beating the dead horse of a lost election.”
      Go beat on something else then. Don’t tell me about it.
      I more pissed off and disappointed than tired.

    3. The problem isn’t the election. The problem is that the country is being taken over by Russian spies. The damage hasn’t been done yet.

      https://www.newsweek.com/russia-us-greenland-annex-invasion-letter-cotton-2013864
      Trump’S big foereign policy ideas a wrecking the international trade system that made America great, and that the Greatest Generation, fought and died to preserve, undermining our European allies by trashing the EU ad NATO, conquering Greenland, which makes no sense at all, and selling as much oil as possible.

      If you can’t see Putin’s hand in this plan, you’re blind. But you still may notice Trump’s rush to meet Putin.

      https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz7e3qzpn9xo

      “He wants to meet and we are setting it up” is a direct quote from Trump. Tell me who is calling the shots.

      Since when do American presidents kowtow to foreign dictators like this?

      1. The “Russian spies are making everything in America BAD” story gets funnier every year.

        Biden being an ineffective genocide loving bitch who had the worst approval ratings, left everyone but the 1% worse off, and looks even weaker than a snotty Kleenex has nothing to do with it, of course.

        Funny thing about fascist propaganda: it portrays the enemy of the state as being both all powerful (“Russia will march on all Europe unless NATO intervenes”) and also completely incapable of standing up to the righteous people of the propaganda state (“Russia NEEDS North Korean troops to take back ITS OWN territory. Putin in shambles as Russia COLLAPSES”).

        Lotta useful idiots in America doing the State Dept’s and corporate America’s job for them. Hope you get paid well.

        1. Nice try, but it isn’t funny.
          The fact that Putin is ruining Russia with his stupid war (which he lost two years ago) doesn’t in anyway disprove that he isn’t heavily investing in an unconventional war against the West.

          This war is mostly waged online by people like you. It also fails to explain why Trump has regular secret phone calls with Putin and spouts obvious nonsense like conquering Greenland that Putin has been pushing for years.

          Note to other readers that the person or persons behind the KLEIBER nick are simply copying my remark and reversing it. It is a common strategy of Russian propaganda. The point is not for anyone to actually believe it, but just to muddy the waters.

          It’s obviously ridiculous that the State Department would pay me to insult Trump. So expect the KLEIBER account to say something insulting about Putin to prove its independence.

          1. The fact that you think Russia is losing kinda negates any point in arguing here.

            You may want to actually get some updates from places that aren’t the propaganda arm of the TRUMP State Department that thinks the AFU is about to kick Russia out because they threw thousands of people into the meatgrinder of Kursk while they lose Kurakhove and Dalnie as they suffer 200k soldiers going AWOL.

            The mark of an army about to win, especially one where all the personnel are being paid by the US gov’t now run by the Orange Manbaby in Chief, as their entire nation collapses. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy is diversifying and growing at 3.3% according to the IMF, raising more working class people out of poverty.

            Like, is this you?

            https://x.com/CivGame/status/1878849638117015672

            People losing their shit about historical accuracy being in a game that features Russia.

        2. Kleiber,
          There was a (rough) ceasefire in effect on Oct 6 2023.
          Hamas committed ethnic cleansing of the population of Gaza using Israel as their tool.
          They knew exactly how to trigger the Israeli leadership, and just what the response would be.
          How it working out for you Hamas?, and for the Gazans?

          1. “There was a (rough) ceasefire in effect on Oct 6 2023” or

            There was an open air prison in effect on Oct 6 2023

            A cornered animal is an animal that has been forced into a situation from which it is difficult or impossible to escape. The term “cornered” can also be used to describe a person who has been forced into an inescapable situation.
            When an animal is cornered, it may become aggressive. This is because most animals will switch to a fight response when escaping isn’t an option.

            1. That is something that both Israeli and Palestinians share…desperate simply for a safe place to live.
              Courtesy of the behavior of Christian Europe.

            2. Hickory,

              How much of the blame goes to neighboring Arabs who refused to take in refugees??

            3. I don’t put blame on Arab countries for that…they are crowded, internally chaotic, and water short already.
              Neither of these two peoples have a good answer, and nobody else does either.

            4. Hickory,

              After WWII there were a lot of partitions: India vs Bangladesh & Pakistan; Germany & Poland vs Russia; and more. AFAIK Gaza & the West Bank are the only ones where people are still trying to relitigate it, where people are living in refugee camps and demanding a right of return.

              As best I can tell, Palestinians weren’t allowed to move on and have normal lives: instead their Arab and Turkish & Persian neighbors chose to bottle them up as a weapon against the normal development of Israel. And October 6th was a calculated tactic to prevent peace between Israel and KSA.

              Why? Well, all of the neighbors are autocracies, who need external enemies and scapegoats. Israel is perfect in the role, at least as long as they can be portrayed as oppressors of Palestinians.

  4. Drivin’ down your freeways
    Midnight alleys roam
    Cops in cars, the topless bars
    Never saw a woman
    So alone, so alone

    – from “L.A. Woman”, by The Doors

  5. Peak coal you say. Well, maybe not for China.

    LOW PRICES DRIVE CHINA’S COAL IMPORTS TO RECORD HIGH IN 2024

    “China’s coal imports surged to 542.7 million metric tons last year, up from the 474.42 million tons imported in 2023, per data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs quoted by Reuters. Analysts attributed the jump in coal imports to falling international seaborne coal prices which opened up the import arbitrage to China.

    This year, China’s coal demand and production are expected to continue rising and the fuel is set to remain the backbone of the country’s energy system, according to China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association.”

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Low-Prices-Drive-Chinas-Coal-Imports-to-Record-High-in-2024.html

    1. Meanwhile,

      “India’s coal production hit an all-time high last year, led by an uptick in utility demand and a broader government push to boost domestic output. Combined coal output from domestic sources such as state-controlled Coal India (CIL), Singareni Collieries (SCCL) and captive blocks reached 1.04bn t in calendar year 2024, up by 7pc or 70.4mn t from a year earlier, according to Argus calculations based on coal ministry data. This supported overall supplies, including supplies to utilities and the non-power sector, which reached 1.01bn t, from 950.2mn t in 2023.

      The steady increase in domestic coal output and supplies was also led by demand from utilities, as the country’s coal-fired generation rose last year, and generators continued to replenish stocks to meet the rising power demand. The strong output also followed India’s broader goal to raise local coal production, with an aim to trim imports and meet its broader energy security objective. Delhi has been pushing CIL to ramp up its output, while also seeking higher production from blocks allocated to utilities and the non-power sector.”

      https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2646409-india-s-coal-output-hits-all-time-high-in-2024

  7. Unfortunate that NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) was built at the base of the San Gabriel mountains, right where the Santa Ana winds come whipping down. They dodged a bullet last week in not getting burned to the ground. It seems that they would at least do some research on what causes climate extremes,such as El Nino and La Nina, but they only seem to pay it lip service. In the past I found 3 scientists working at JPL who tried to make a connection to lunisolar orbital dynamics (as in tidal forces), but they were either rebuffed, or then worked on it independently after they left the lab.

    My take here:
    https://geoenergymath.com/2024/11/10/lunar-torque-controls-all/

    And then there’s the 24 year old climatologist Edgar McGregor, working odd jobs and doing volunteer cleaning of the trails in the canyons, who alerted Altadena residents to get out, likely saving countless lives.

    his FB bulletin: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GhHUUEQagAA4Ujr.jpg

    Read more about it here, and residents thanking him for the warning:
    https://localnewspasadena.com/2025/how-two-words-from-a-24-year-old-pasadena-climate-specialist-saved-hundreds-of-lives/

    No, it wasn’t a warning from the geniuses at NASA JPL, but an idealistic young dude that made the call.

    2. Thanks Paul,

      Cool stuff. Sometimes social media can do positive things.

  8. The fastest energy change in history continues

    Solar and wind catch nuclear

    In 2024, global new solar generation capacity was deployed 100 times faster than net new nuclear capacity according to recent data from the World Nuclear Association, the International Energy Agency and Ember. New wind was deployed 25 times faster than nuclear. The fastest energy change in history continues.

    Net new nuclear capacity averaged 2 GW per year over the past decade including 5.5 GW in 2024, with old powerplants retiring almost as fast as new powerplants open. In 2024, about 700 GW of new solar and wind was deployed.

    Solar electricity generation is growing tenfold each decade, whereas nuclear generation has been static since 2000. Both solar and wind electricity generation (Terawatt-hours) will catch nuclear generation this year. The market is speaking clearly: solar and wind are cheaper than nuclear electricity.

    1. Islandboy,

      Capacity is a very poor metric as solar only produces at about 20 to 25% of capacity on average (and perhaps less at the World level). A better metric is to look at output as it is more of an apples to apples comparison (though not really due to the intermittent nature of wind and solar.)

      1. For tomorrow, Germans will pay 50! times more than me for their electricity (if they are on a day to day/hour by hour basis) than me. For that price differential I could electrolyze, say 1 ton of water, compress it or cool it (a lot) and then ship it to Germany, run it through a fuelcell and still make a LOT of profit.
        Why? Plenty wind here, but we honestly have quite a bit of hydro too, so the wind part is “excess” in a way.
        But I guess there are more windy, or sunny, places around the world.
        Btw. from what I´ve heard, a ~30% capacity utility factor is prefered for wind, don´t know about solar though. Hydro also lies in the 20-30% range here if I remember correctly, but depends heavily on storage capacity.
        https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/
        https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/kontrollrummet/

      2. Okay then, divide the added solar capacity by four, heck, divide it by five if you want, it still grew 20 times faster than nuclear!

      3. Capacity factors of solar photovoltaic energy facilities in
        California, annual mean and variability        (PDF)

        On the other hand, the large amounts of PV installed in places that are not nearly as sunny as California drags the average capacity factor down quite a bit as shown in the image below. more solar needs to be installed in more sunny places. In my neck of the woods, no utility scale Pv has been deployed since 2019! Thankfully the electricity consumers have installed a fair bit of “behind the meter” solar PV because of the high cost of electricity from the utility.

    2. Yeah, all those wind turbines the UK pumped out in the last 15 years have really made my bills cheaper. Now, just to look at this month’s energy bill and…

      Oh. It’s twice what it cost two years ago. Well, at least we’re pumping less carbon in the atmosphere. Time to check GISS and…

      Oh. CO2 output is at the highest in all recorded history. Hmm.

  9. A questions on the politics of oil. the new administration would like to reduce the price of oil and increase the supply. Does anyone even think doing both is at all possible? If they end up having to choose one which way will it go? I think less oil and lower price is easier to explain than higher price with a slightly higher world production. Politically speaking.

    1. Donn,

      If they manage to succeed at increasing production that will lower prices. How much depends on how much they manage to increase production by.

      They can also some how screw China and India economically to reduce consumption which will bring down prices.
      Lifting sanctions on Russia and Iran will also drop prices, which is highly unlikely in my opinion but who knows what goes on through the head of the U.S administration. So its hard to predict as usual.

      1. I do think that a relaxation of sanctions on Russia and Iran is possible over the next 4 years, in return for some big bargain where each agree to constraint of their ambitions that extend beyond their borders.
        Both of these countries would see value in refocusing their efforts on their domestic economies rather than war making.

        1. I´m a bit sad to say, you really need to read up a lot about the background to the Ukraine war, Putin did not just wake up one day and say: “Hey, let´s invade Ukraine!” But that´s a common mistake/misinformation goal, so I´ll give you that.

            1. Thinking a nation state actually had a reason to carry out a costly kinetic action such as what has been transpiring in Ukraine is wrong think. Clearly Putin decided one morning to evilly and Asiatically takeover the peace loving Ukrainian state that has never done anything wrong and was just minding its own business because he’s the Grinch but with nukes.

              I’m glad critical thinking and materially based analysis is alive and well here.

          2. Laplander.
            It is correct that I see it as pretty simple….Russia invaded Ukraine to take territory.
            Germany invaded Poland in 1939, and Russia in 1941.
            US invaded Iraq in 2003.

            The background stories told by the various sides are interesting, but don’t change the basic facts. None of these actions were ‘ok’or just, in my book.

            All countries could make up a wish list of territory that they would like to annex, or seize while killing off the local population if that is what it takes. I have the quaint notion that such adjustments to borders should be by consent of both parties.

            1. Perhaps you remember the civil war in eastern Ukraine which started 2014 after the ousting of Yanukovich? The downing of MH17? The fire in the Odessa Trade House?
              Minsk 1 & 2? The Istanbul agreement?
              THAT was what I was thinking about, it´s a complicated mess! (but easy to glaze over)
              So I stand by my statement, if you disagree that´s fine by me.

            2. Addendum, sorry for the double post, but thanks Alim, you made my week 🙂
              (But now I feel a bit concerned about the ones labeled trolls on other forums for having a different opinion…)
              Some obviously are, but who´s to tell?

            3. Question for you Laplander-
              Do you think that Russia will be satisfied with annexation of the land it has captured in Ukraine, or is their more territory in Ukraine or elsewhere that it has on the wish list?
              Riga, Odessa, Helsinki, Dnipro, Kazakhstan, Svalbard?
              What do they see as theirs?

            4. Hickory,
              Russia has people whi say that ‘where our flag has ever flown are ours’.
              Possibly inherited from Bysantium – they thought that areas taken from them by enemies were still Bysantium areas, sort of temporary situation….

            5. SE, Many peoples might feel that way.
              What if Germans or British did? Or Spanish or Ottomans? Or Comanche?

              I suppose in the final analysis its just take and hold whatever you can, as it has always been.

            6. Hickory

              Russia is stuck in an obsolete strategy. In pre-modern times there was no economic growth, just theft & plunder of neighbors. Empires were Ponzi schemes, dependent on an expanding circle of plunder. When the circle became too wide to manage or defend, someone else started their own empire.

              In modern times expanding prosperity comes from growing intellectual capital. Japan is the poster child for the transition: pre-WWII Japan’s strategy was empire. Post WWII their prosperity came from trade and ingenuity, despite a lack of domestic resources.

            7. As for the current situation, where not even the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk (~20-25% of Ukraine) are in russian control, them being rolling through Europe, at the gates of Paris by Tuesday seems very far fetched. Had it been in the 80s, when the Warzava Pact consisted of 22 countries, perhaps, but now roughly half of of those countries are in NATO. I used to be in the Swedish Army Reserve in the 90s so I have some old knowledge of that time.
              However, at this point, the risk of continued stepwise escalation is certainly possible, e.g. should EU/NATO make a move on Kaliningrad, as proposed by some, things for neighboring countries would probably get less good.
              So the original Minsk agreements were a pretty good compromize in my modest view, but apparently even Merkel has acknowledged that they were a smokescreen.
              But I really don´t think it is about acreage, perhaps/likely local resources play a role but you also have to ask western companies investing in UKR about that, and might certainly be a factor for Russia too. I could do some namedropping but will not.
              Interesting times, hedge accordingly.
              Edit: for your original question, my WAG would be they would really like keep Crimea and Sevastopol (Russian until it was handed over to UKR by Chrustyof in the 50s, but that was more like moving county lines since all were SSRs at that time), Donetsk and Luhansk, and the rest of Ukraine would be neutral. (as Sweden officially was during the cold war, not that bad a deal in my opinion)

            8. Question: why did they want that territory and why was that reason Minsk II being torpedoed by the US?

              Also, pretty funny Americans talking up bad Russia invasions when your incoming government has literally said they’d use force to take Panama (again, lol) and Greenland.

              Imperialism: not just for Anglos no more.

    2. Donn,
      Exportation of Nat Gas might be welcomed by drillers, but it will come at the expense of the domestic population and industry in the form of higher and higher electricity prices.
      The country with the lowest and most reliable electricity will have a massive advantage in this age of advanced manufacturing and military, economic efficiency and modernization. Hopefully those whispering in Trumps ear helps him to understand that energy issues are more than just about oil production.

      “Natural gas prices were low in 2024 but as liquefied natural gas export terminals come on-stream in late 2025 and in 2026 and more U.S. natural gas is shipped out of the country, “we expect higher natural gas prices and resulting higher electricity prices,” Cicio said.

      U.S. LNG exports have tripled over the past five years, are expected to double again by 2030 and could increase even further under existing authorizations, Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said in December.

      The rise in natural gas exports is also a threat to reliability, Cicio said, “because there is inadequate natural gas pipeline capacity on a regional basis, to add generation.”

      The increased LNG exports are happening at a time when building and transportation electrification, data center growth, artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency mining and battery and fuel cell manufacturing are contributing to higher electricity consumption and rising electricity prices.

      U.S. electricity demand is projected to grow 9% by 2028 and 18% by 2033..”

  10. Trump DoD pick allegedly ordered three gin and tonics during a breakfast the two had at a bar back in 2023.

      1. Republicans lionize Churchill to hide their Nazi leanings and their hate for the victorious Democratic government, but he wasn’t much help in the real world.

      2. He also caused Gallipoli and the Bengal famine, so y’know, swings and roundabouts.

    1. Meanwhile,

      WILDFIRES DRIVE RECORD LEAP IN GLOBAL LEVEL OF CLIMATE-HEATING CO2

      “Wildfires that blazed around the world in 2024 helped to drive a record annual leap in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, surprising scientists. The data shows humanity is moving yet deeper into a dangerous world of supercharged extreme weather. The CO2 level at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii jumped by 3.6 parts per million (ppm) to 427ppm, far above the 280ppm level before the large-scale burning of fossil fuels sparked the climate crisis.”

      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/17/wildfires-drive-record-leap-in-global-level-of-climate-heating-co2

    1. “Sales of both road fuels [petrol and diesel] peaked in 2023, according to China National Petroleum Corp, and will now fall by 25-40 per cent over the next decade.” !!!

  13. ‘Not how you handle children’: Sheriff under fire after 11 year-old girl put in handcuffs

    Pigs– just avoid them.

    Even dealing with ongoing crime, best to not get them involved.

  14. Dems realising that the youth social media platform used by 150 million Americans is going to go dark because of their dumb ploy this Sunday is a remarkable setup for a win for the Orange Man if he manages to bring it back.

    I can’t think of a more incoherent party that isn’t the GOP circa 2008.

    Anyway, ban all social media or none at all. Short form video content is brain rot, however, you’d have to be a massive credulous person to swallow the national security line about why TikTok must die.

    When America collects data on you with tech = cool, good, nationally important.

    When other countries collect data = bad, evil, immoral.

  15. “Canadian officials said their choice of goods was meant to be precisely targeted and aimed at political impact. They specifically want to focus on goods made in Republican or swing states, where the pain of tariffs, like pressure on jobs and the bottom lines of local businesses, would affect Trump allies.”

    1. Rerunning the early 20th century’s follies again is a real win for us as a species. Did we want another challenge to go with climate collapse and resource depletion?

  16. I have lost all access to TikTok and it’s related apps as of 9:30 PM Eastern US time.

    1. Oh thank God. Now the Chinese can’t encroach on American alphabet organisations’ and corporations’ ability to collect your data.

      You’ll also be able to sleep better at night not knowing what’s really going on in Gaza and other terribly unfortunate places that America could probably, but definitely would not, do something to stop.

Comments are closed.