119 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum February 4, 2025”

  1. Dennis, from your Science Daily post:
    In the future maybe 5 to 10% backup will be needed to supplement non-fossil fuel electricity output.

    But, from your linked article:
    During the hours when there was not enough renewable electricity to meet power needs, the model drew from storage and, on the rare hours with neither renewable electricity or stored power, then fossil fuel.

    This implies 100% FF backup, no? (albeit for very short periods of time)

    1. “This implies 100% FF backup, no? (albeit for very short periods of time)”
      I think that this is a critical point, and taking a naive, unrealistic, or dismissive approach is a recipe for failure.
      You either have that 100% backup to intermittent sources via fossil fuel, nuclear, geothermal, hydroelectric, pumped storage, or some other form of long duration storage…
      or you be prepared to go into economic and survival hibernation at times and seasons, and be prepared to accept all of the downsides of that approach (including the loss of governance positions).

      I see the most practical scenario for an indefinite time frame to be using wind and solar in the favorable regions as fossil fuel extenders. It is entirely possible for many regions (and individuals) to offset somewhere between 50-90% of their fossil fuel consumption on an annual basis. Save it for later while we get on with the task of contraction. Gradually if we can manage it.

      Lets kind in mind that there are huge downsides in the failure to proactively diminish the degree of fossil fuel dependency- they are depleting and will get more expensive over time. As that happens it will be increasingly difficult to find reliable sources that come from outside your region, or outside of your geopolitical corral. Additionally there are the little problems of concentration of wealth inherent in the fossil fuel industry (Texas, Saudi, Russia as examples), and that little problem called massive climate instability.

      1. Hickory,

        In an interconnected grid over a wide region, all wind and solar and batteries are unlikely to be not producing simultaneously, demand pricing can also reduce demand during periods where wind and or solar outut are low. There are periods where weather knocks out power, some backup is needed in those cases for critical needs (hospitals for example). Life continues without power.

        1. Those measures are helpful, but I await to see one region successfully (no power shortfalls) accomplish the goal.
          In the meantime the smart thing to do is to keep all current fossil fuel generation capacity available.

          “According to various estimates, fully electrifying transportation in the United States would require a significant increase in electricity usage, potentially consuming between 20-50% more electricity than current levels, with some studies suggesting it could demand more than 40% of the nation’s total electricity production if all vehicles were electric”

          I have pointed out many times previously that individuals,states and nations are going to have to come up with a huge amount of capital/credit to move toward electrification- heat pumps, building retrofit, energy storage, radioactive waste storage,e vehicles, transmission capacity, etc. We’ll see if anyone can get the job done.
          Of course it will be much more costly to just stick with fossil fuel/ICE without rapid adoption of all extender/alternate mechanisms.

          1. Hickory,

            It is correct that it has not been accomplished yet, that does not mean it isn’t possible in my view. There was a time when a man flying or space travel were considered impossible because it had not been accomplished.

          2. America’s problem isn’t the lack of electricity generation, it’s the lack of a transportation system.

            And those “various estimates” usually engage in the primary energy fallacy, converting gallons of gas into watt hours. In fact, nearly all the oil used in transportation is used to heat up the vehicle’s cooling system.

            The amount of waste in the system is mind boggling. The idea that things can never get better is output of a boggled mind.

            1. I once did an estimate of the amount of additional electricity that would be required if all vehicle miles traveled in the US were to be provided by EVs and the number came out at 19%. I have seen other estimates done by folks way more capable than me that back this up.

            2. That is wishful thinking folks. If we wish to forgo oil used in transportation in this world than we make a choices-
              1) Generate much more electricity to push all these vehicles around or
              2) divert a large amount of electricity being used for other purposes currently or
              3) move around a lot less.

              Its good to be real about these things. If electricity costs are too high, then people will still have a big incentive to use ICE/petroleum.

            3. Changing the zoning laws that force people to drive long distances to get anywhere is a big idea.

              American driving is mostly based on the “great triangle”. There are separate government mandated areas in every region where people live, where people work and where people shop and engage in recreational activities. This weird ideology has led to massive and mostly pointless waste of resources.

              Interestingly, California is the worst sinner in this respect. Bowing to Putin, Republicans like to lambast the country’s most productive state for being too “woke”, but the state is definitely in deep sleep on this. The reason the state’s population isn’t booming is that the housing and transportation is so broken.

    2. John,

      No the model may have needed some fossil fuel, but probably not 100%.

  2. Loadsofoil, in your recent Germany power capacity comment you stated:

    Fact is often Germany must rely on coal and gas for up to 95% of its demand.

    This is true. But how often is often? For how many hours a month?

        1. Loads of oil,

          At the World level the capacity factor for wind was about 27% and for solar about 15%. This is well known and expected.

          1. Dennis

            You obviously do not know how an electrical grid works and what it takes to balance a grid on a second by second basis.

            https://www.drax.com/power-generation/great-balancing-act-takes-keep-power-grid-stable/

            Your comment about wind output being 27% shows you really do not have a grasp of the debate. We are talking about the second by second requirement of ensuring that a grid is stable.

            The study I posted in my previous post describes exactly the fluctuations that occur. Did you read it? Why should you, you know everything already.

            Those who know they can learn something new, would realise the scale of backup required to store excess renewable for the hours and weeks of low output.

            1. Loadsofoil,

              I am familiar with the need to stabilize the grid, though I am not an expert. I do not know everything and have never claimed as much.

            2. Isochronous grid control is what I spent most of my career on. It is indeed a challenge to control real and reactive power budget. People don’t appreciate how much back up and spinning reserve inertia are require to handle swings. Newer CCGTs can start up and get to full power relatively quick but another layer down from this that even fewer appreciate is how much mechanical and thermal stress this up and down cycling places on the equipment. Operators much prefer to run up to base load and just run there for months. Having to cycle the equipment greatly decreases the maintenance intervals. Coupled with solar you would much prefer to keep your large CCGT installations online and at significant load during the day and then dial them up even more at night. Shutting them down on a sunny day would be a nightmare. Also, to reach emission regulations most of the larger units have to run at a higher load. CO2 and NOx is tougher to control when the setpoint drops below a certain threshold.

            3. Thanks for the info/perspective LNGGuy.
              I see that-
              “About 25% of [current] U.S. power plants can start up—going from being shut down to fully operating—within one hour, based on data collected in EIA’s annual survey of electric generators.” (This includes nat gas burners and other sources.)

              “The combustion efficiency of peaker plants in the United States can range from 20–42%, with a national average heat rate of 13,300 Btu/kWh.” whereas the
              “The combustion efficiency of a natural gas combined cycle power plant (CCGT) in the USA typically ranges between 50% and 60%, with the most advanced plants achieving efficiencies exceeding 60%”

              So the peakers are only about 1/2 as efficient during operation as the modern constant operation plants.
              Nonetheless, its a very useful mechanism for a region that can allow extension/rationing of the natural gas resources for generations, if it was primarily reserved for the role of backstopping other generation sources that are periodically short.
              Nuclear power stations are 100% down for about 6 weeks every 18 months. You’ve got to have mechanism to offset that shortfall, for example.

        2. LOADSOFOIL
          Renewables haven’t fallen below 19% of production in 2025. See the table in your link.

          1. Alim

            Hopefully LNGGUY will post some more details on how great solar and wind fluctuations are and how difficult and costly it is to mitigate.

            He may teach you and Dennis something, you may even learn how to read a basic graph.

  3. https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-logic-of-destruction?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2rctb&triedRedirect=true

    “If you voted Republican, and you care about your country, please act rather than rationalize. Unless you cast your ballot so that South African oligarchs could steal your data, your money, your country, and your future, make it known to your elected officials that you wanted something else. And get ready to protest with people with whom you otherwise disagree.”

    1. “The way things are going right now, by next year research into climate change may be illegal in the Republic Of Trump”

      1. Trump is the CEO of America. The new chairman of the board knows that climate change is real, that we are already at 1.7c warming, that climate change is a threat to the viability of the planet itself, that what is baked into the cake already is climate change driven chaos, political unrest, and enormous numbers of refugees over the borders to cooler climes, and that the transition away from fossil fuels is happening much too slowly to stop any of that. Draw your own conclusions about what kind of system reboot might stop it in the necessary time frame.

    2. Americans get exactly what they vote for…always.

      No sympathy at all from me, for the dying people of this dying empire.

  4. I’m still trying to figure out where Trump’s “unlimited energy” in the US is?

    On Sunday, in the Truth Social post, Trump railed against Canada’s trade surplus with the United States: “We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use.”

    Can someone point it out to me?

    1. Read Timothy Snyder The Unmaking of Freedom. Donald is a carnival barker. You don’t get reflections of reality but promises of unreality, implausible deniability. This is the century of limits and America chose denial.

  5. Anyone watched Taylor Sheridan’s “Landman” series on Paramount? (Paramount is an excellent streaming service, by the way, I was not expecting it). In it, Bobby Thornton rails on Episode 3 (first and only season so far) – a conversation between Rebecca and Tommy:

    R: What are those?
    T: Wind turbines.
    R: Out here?
    T: Everywhere.
    R: Green energy starting to push out the oil industry?
    T: Let’s go. I want to show you something.
    R: God, they’re massive.
    T: 400 feet tall. The concrete foundation covers a third of an acre and goes down into ground 12 feet.
    R: Who owns them?
    T: Oil companies. We use them to power the wells. No electricity out here. We’re off the grid.
    R: They use clean energy to power the oil wells?
    T: They use alternative energy. There’s nothing clean about this.
    R: Ah. Please, Mr. Oilman, tell me how the wind is bad for the environment.

    T: Do you have any idea how much diesel they had to burn to mix that much concrete? Or make that steel and haul this shit out here and put it together with a 450-foot crane? You want to guess how much oil it takes to lubricate that fսcking thing? Or winterize it? In its 20-year lifespan, it won’t offset the carbon footprint of making it. And don’t get me started on solar panels and the lithium in your Tesla battery. And never mind the fact that, if the whole world decided to go electric tomorrow, we don’t have the transmission lines to get the electricity to the cities. It’d take 30 years if we started tomorrow. And, unfortunately, for your grandkids, we have a 120-year, petroleum-based infrastructure. Our whole lives depend on it. And, hell, it’s in everything. That road we came in on. The wheels on every car ever made, including yours. It’s in tennis rackets and lipstick and refrigerators and antihistamines. Pretty much anything plastic. Your cell phone case, artificial heart valves. Any kind of clothing that’s not made with animal or plant fibers. Soap, fսcking hand lotion, garbage bags, fishing boats. You name it. Every fսcking thing. And you know what the kicker is? We’re gonna run out of it before we find its replacement. It’s the thing that’s gonna kill us all… as a species. No, the thing that’s gonna kill us all is running out before we find an alternative. And believe me, if Exxon thought them fսcking things right there were the future, they’d be putting them all over the goddamn place. Getting oil out of the ground’s the most dangerous job in the world. We don’t do it ’cause we like it. We do it ’cause we run out of options. And you’re out here trying to find something to blame for the danger besides your boss. There ain’t nobody to blame but the demand that we keep pumping it.

    1. It’s been 37 years since I’ve had a TV broadcasting anything over the air or a wire. Thanks, this is a good reminder of the benefits of that decision. I shudder to think about how many people will hear this and accept it as reality.

      1. T Hill,

        Sounds like talking points from Fox news celebrities. Every point can be refuted, the point that is sometimes missed is that we need to compare the use of energy to produce a windmill and the use of energy to produce oil or natural gas as well as refine that gas and oil and distribute it to customers vs doing the same with the electricity produced and distributing that to end users using a lifecycle analysis of energy spent vs energy produced. What we find is that wind and solar plus EVs for land transport use less energy in vs energy out than oil used for land transport.

        1. Dennis,

          I am not sure I entirely follow your point in this comment. I read this as:

          1. Efficiency for EV land transport is greater than for ICEs.
          2. EROI for wind with subsequent use of electricity for EV transport is greater than EROI for oil for ICEs
          3. EROI for wind generated electricity is better than for that from natural gas.

          However, I feel like I am missing something that you are saying here?

          1. T Hill,

            In a modern society with a highly interconnected grid, wind, solar, EVs, and batteries with perhaps 30% backup by fossil fuels, hydro, and nuclear will be cheaper than the fossil fuels that they replace.

            1. Got it, thanks Dennis.

              For my sake, I am generally more comfortable with the physics of these topics and much less so with the economics.

      3. The partial quote below is taken from a post I came across on another blog on energy and related topics. 

        “:Having worked for years in the oil and gas industry……..Wind power is a total fraud, since the energy required to build, install, maintain, and recycle them is far more than they will ever produce..Billy Bob Thornton discusses this at length in the new series Landman, which involves drilling and maintaining wells in the Permian…Solar definitely does not return its cost in energy,…”

        Billy Bob Thornton as a source for science and engineering expertise. I wish I could say I was surprised. Literacy challenges pale in comparison to those associated with logic and numeracy.

        1. It appears that we are well and truly deep in the era of “alternative facts”. One’s “facts” seem to depend on the information sources that are chosen. All I can say about the above post above is, I have seen information indicating the opposite. Both wind turbines and solar PV modules capture far more energy than the energy that was used to manufacture and install them.

    1. This will be big.

      “Worldwide overview of high-temperature energy storage system providers
      Tue, 5 March 2024

      High-temperature thermal energy storage is one important pillar for the energy transition in the industrial sector. These technologies …. store surplus electricity from the grid using power-to-heat solutions and provide heat to industrial clients. Some solutions even allow energy storage at temperatures around 2,000 °C – hot enough to address “hard-to-decarbonize” sectors like cement and steel. The number of high-temperature storage providers is constantly increasing… We have identified more than 30 companies mostly startups in this segment…. The market survey was financed by Natural Resources Canada. The results are available as…”

      Examples
      -https://rondo.com/
      -https://bren-energy.com/
      -https://www.kyotogroup.no/

    2. Spot on. The forthcoming dose of reality on EV and ruinables is getting closer.

      Thermal storage will not save the planet either. Another boondoggle scam.

      1. “will not save the planet either”
        Carnot….nothing saves the planet. How did you get the idea that humanity has that project in mind?
        Its not even on the priority list. You should know that, having been around for a few years.

        For most people the priority on energy is figuring how to ‘keep the lights’ on for a while, regardless of what happens to the living planet.

      2. Wow ruinables! You’re so clever! I used to think you just babbled random nonsense, but your schoolyard taunts have made me a true believer.

  8. Hi all, tried to go to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency’s Global Monitoring Laboratory website ( https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends ) to see if they had published the January atmospheric CO2 concentration measured at Mauna Loa but I can’t connect. I can connect to noaa.gov. Might be just a temporary problem for me – can anyone else here see the GML website? (Doug?) Or is this Trump?

    2. Someone on Reddit has this to say:
      The building in which those labs are located is undergoing power maintenance today. You’ll notice that other operational units based there still have their websites up: this is probably just because OAR didn’t go over to their back up networks while their primaries are powered off. Check back tonight / tomorrow.

  10. Considering that Elon Musk and his operatives are currently rooting around inside the US federal payments system, it seems that identifying his objectives is important.

    That’s a task that’s way beyond my pay grade, so what follows here is just thoughts about it, and no conclusion.

    Assuming that he is still mostly human, he does still work within time constraints, so examining where his time is being distributed may still offer clues.

    Nothing he says or insinuates should be taken at face value, but on founding Tesla he said its mission is “Accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy.” It isn’t fully transitioned, but it is accelerated. The transition to electric transportation can’t be stopped. Aside from California, how long the U.S. drags its heels doesn’t matter much, look at China. As far as transport goes, Musk’s stated objective for Tesla is accomplished, and he doesn’t really care about Tesla too much as far as producing cars is concerned. The manufacturing capacity of its factories may be a different story. That may still be an asset to his objectives.

    I haven’t really looked into this, but it also seems that Tesla demonstrated the value of battery energy storage.

    As far as renewable energy production goes, this is what Perplexity.ai says in response to my query about its current daily EV panel production:

    “As of the end of 2023, China’s module manufacturing capacity exceeded 1 terawatt (TW) per year. This translates to an average daily production capacity of approximately 2.74 gigawatts (GW) per day, assuming a 365-day production year. It’s important to note that this figure represents capacity rather than actual daily production, which may vary based on demand and other factors.”

    So in raw capacity terms, rounding down, even throwing a 10% capacity factor at power output from the panels, China can build a nuclear plants worth of PV every 5 days. Check my arithmetic on that because I’m innumerate.

    Musk doesn’t seem to be spending much time at SpaceX either, so the mission is either accomplished, or being executed to his satisfaction. But what is the mission? The Mars as a backup for humanity story is nonsensical, with a caveat which I may or may not get back to. Humans on Mars for any extended period would quickly cease to be human. It may just be a cover story for building rockets. With those rockets, they have deployed a global satellite communication system whose strategic importance became clear at the start of the invasion of Ukraine. Satellite to cell phone communication is being implemented now.

    Space-X isn’t publicly traded, it’s only available to accredited investors, so who are they aside from Musk who owns 54%, well Peter Thiel, google, among other broligarchs. This video, produced months ago, has suddenly gained a lot of attentional velocity since the federal checkbook incursion:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RpPTRcz1no&t=1169s

    Curtis Yarvin is introduced at 5:37 and The Butterfly Revolution is introduced at 19:30. At 6:30 he is quoted saying:

    “Since wards (of the state?) are liabilities, there is no business for retaining them in their present, ambulatory form. Therefore, the most profitable disposition for this dubious form of capital is to convert them into biodiesel, which can help power the Muni buses”

    But in the video, the quote is not complete. Here is what he wrote in 2008:

    “The trouble with the biodiesel solution is that no one would want to live in a city whose public transportation was fueled, even just partly, by the distilled remains of its late underclass. However, it helps us describe the problem we are trying to solve. Our goal, in short, is a humane alternative to genocide.”

    He then concluded that the “best humane alternative to genocide” is to “virtualize” these people: Imprison them in “permanent solitary confinement” where, to avoid making them insane, they would be connected to an “immersive virtual-reality interface” so they could “experience a rich, fulfilling life in a completely imaginary world.”

    My source for the quote: https://wrongplanet.net/forums/viewtopic.php?t=423074

    So, Neuralink then?

    “Neuralink is a neurotechnology company that develops brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). The company’s goal is to create a generalized brain interface. Neuralink’s BCIs use ultra-thin probes inserted into the brain. The probes are equipped with electrodes that record the activity of neurons. A neurosurgical robot performs the operations. A high-density electronic system processes the information from the neurons.”

    “As of February 5, 2025, three human patients have received Neuralink brain implants.”

    If you’ve watched a video of the implant robot, you know the objective is cheap, fast, safe implanting. We already know from experiments with other species that BCI’s can be used to control the actions of the subject.

    So that brings us to the too dark to consider and thus easy to dismiss level of batshit craziness.

    Personally, had I ran across the above video last year when it was created, I would not have even watched it through. At best I would have read the transcript and called it a day, which is actually what I did do on first encounter. After stumbling across it too many times since the treasury incursion, I finally did watch it. It hit way harder. Even so, last year I would have dismissed it as nutty conspiracy b.s., but now, it is a little more compelling when we are watching it happen in real time.

    Musk has a trollish character, but I think a lot of the nonsense he does is just distraction. He doesn’t care if you think he’s an idiot. He doesn’t care if you underestimate him. He may not be the lone genius bringing things to successful fruition, Peter Thiel is not a very public person, but there he always is when you scratch. Sieg Thiel.

    So what are the things Elon Musk is most focused on right now?

    1. I would be very surprised if he wasn’t angling for weaponized AI robotic contract from the government for security and warfare applications, A big space warfare contract, probably a piece of tik tok too, government endorsement of his autonomous driving software.
      A big thing for him is to be outside of all regulations.

        1. Thanks Bob for the post. The video was done 2 months ago and is pretty much right on for what has been happening for the last 2 1/2 week. Which really makes it scary. It’s the same fascist mentality Germany experienced 90 years ago, just modern-day. The old superior Aryan race is now those who think they are tech genius’s. The America we grew up knowing is dead and there will be no return. I live in the land of right wing retired government ex-empolyees. They all have theirs and drink the Fox kool-aid of fear. They were coddled with benefits and clueless as to corporate employment. Here’s the kicker, they all dislike the government.

          Ask yourself this, name a charactistic of Hitler that Trump doesn’t display ?

          Peak oil is the least of todays entitled problems. For most everyone else, it’s as simple as there will be no soup for you. The entitled don’t need 8 billion humans to maintain their life style. The 99.9% are on a race to the bottom. It’s as simple as the heard needs to be trimmed. We’re just cattle.

          1. King, or Republic? That is the question. Don’t use the term democracy. Are we for crown, or constitution. Constitution! Constitution! Constitution! American patriots defend the constitution. What are the constitutional powers of the president? Build bridges and build consensus.

            Constitution! Constitution! Constitution! American patriots defend the constitution.

            Talk to the ones that are closest to you that you love both to the left and to the right; family, friend, fellow workers. Assume that you are as propagandized as they are. The polarization is by design. Compare notes on reality itself, and try to reach a mutual consensus.

            A government of the people, by the people, for the people.

            If you don’t know the constitution, which I don’t, learn it, understand it. Discuss it with those to the left and right. Learn and develop your own opinion. Policy not politics. Policy not politics. Policy not politics.

            This is a meme war, a vibe war. Love and peace must win.

            A well regulated militia is a local law enforcement, municipal police, county sheriffs, state guards & troopers. These are your family, your friends, your neighbors. Build bridges, build consensus. All cops are not bastards. Befriend the police. All lives matter. Ensure that the law enforcement in your personal networks are for constitution not crown.

            This is not a civil war. This is American Revolution 2.0 A consensus must be reached on every question in the constitution with those in your meat space peer-to-peer network of family, friends, associates. Build bridges.

            Their plan is implementation of martial law after calling a state of emergency. Follow the successful campaigns of peaceful resistance. Do not resort to violence. Convince others to not advocate or accept capital punishment without due process.

            Do not argue about the legitimacy of Trump as president. He was legally and lawfully elected. Did you vote for Elon Musk? Did you cast a vote for DOGE? Did the representative you or others voted into office vote for DOGE?

            Their Prophet, Curtis Yarvin wrote:
            “(Of course the acronym recalls the doges of the Most Serene Republic of Venice, but few are familiar with the etymology of “doge.” It is just the Venetian dialect spelling of “duke,” from the Latin dux—or, in standard Italian—duce. Just sayin’.)”

            So, Il Duce Muskolini, leader of the Muskovites. Did you vote for them? Did the law enforcement officers that you are connected to personally vote for them? Ask them.

            Peter Thiel supplies surveillance software to the USG. I don’t think that’s on the DOGE chopping block.

            Are the Techbros in their Strangelove holes yet? Will Musk and Altman attend the upcoming AI conference in France in person? If not, ask yourself why not. Ask your neighbor why not.

            All lives matter, but ask yourself which specific lives you are willing to feed and shelter. Think strategically about food.

            The dumping of billions of gallons into the California desert; the tariff on Canada which supplies 90% of US potash supply; the detainment and deportation of 40% of the agricultural workforce. What do these all have in common? American food security. Start thinking strategically about food. How you will get it. How will you share it.

            The Boomers tuned in, turned on, and dropped out. Tune out, turn off, drop in. Go outstide and talk to your neighbor, unmediated. Occupy Meatspace!

            Parties in the streets not parties in the congress. The Democratic party failed. The Republican Party is cowed successfully by the king and the duke.

            The Butterfly Revolutionaries believe democracy is weak, and it is, which is why we have a democratic republic. We have the power to elect the best and the brightest to represent us. Is your representative the best and the brightest? Why not?

            Who is the best and brightest in your family? They are your family representative. Who is the best and brightest of your friends? They are your friend representative. Have them represent you at the parties in the streets; the parties in the town square.

            Peaceful assembly, parties in the park, not just a workday like 050501, and not just a weekend. Nobody likes to be told what to do. Convince the reds in your life that life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness is an individual right. The blues do not want autocracy from the right. The reds do not want autocracy from the left. Your freedom ends where theirs begins, and vice versa. You can call my by whatever pronoun you want. I don’t care. I’ll share mine with those who respect me. Mine is “it” by the way, but I don’t care, and neither should her royal highness Il Duce.

            Peace and love. Peace and love. Peace and love. Law and order.

            2. I haven’t really been able to eat since the weekend, and I didn’t sleep last night.

              For the sake of my own mental health I’m going to follow the example of Fred Magyar and sign off, but I don’t have a kayak, and I won’t be drowning today. What I have is sunshine outside, feet, and a bike, and some legs that need some atrophy remediation.

              Bob Nickson, over and out.

        2. Yes Bob. I watched it. It fits well with what we see happening, and as these guys advertised as their goals.
          You asked what is the focus of Musk.
          I think that he and his cohort want to kneecap democracy, remove all regulations that work to block their maneuvers, and get rid of dead wood of entitlement spending and population (those who can’t enrich them). And they want the inside track to all big upcoming contracts on technology/AI/space/ internal security and military.
          It all adds up to a massive escalation in the concentration of wealth and power among a few.

          1. Thanks for this perspective. I hadn’t seen this until just now, so after my brain dump below.
            So of the opinion that Musk is a kleptocrat, used his money to buy an election, and is preparing to loot the treasury? Is that right?

            Corruption is something I think there is a consensus on between the reds and blues. They just may have different views on who they think is corrupt.

            There is another angle from which Musk might be a good guy, not a bad guy. They saw the Russian oligarchs place Putin in power because they thought he would benefit them. Ask https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Khodorkovsky how that worked out.

            Musk is a gamer. Years ago at the dawn of OpenAI they trained AI to beat human players at DOTA2:
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfb6aEUMC04&pp=ygUNRE9UQTIgb3BlbiBBSQ%3D%3D

            Is it possible that Musk has intentionally caused this constitutional crisis in order to force a constitutional conventions on the U.S.? An update?

            Six months ago, what would you have guessed the probability of a constitutional convention happening anytime soon to be? How about now? Would the Democrats have agreed to one?

            According to Wikipedia, “Of the current nine members of the Supreme Court of the United States, at least five are current or former members of the organization—Brett Kavanaugh, Neil Gorsuch, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Amy Coney Barrett.”

            According to perplexity.ai, “The Federalist Society is based on three main principles:

            The state exists to preserve freedom.
            The separation of governmental powers is central to the Constitution.
            It is the judiciary’s duty to say what the law is, not what it should be.

            Why would they give Donald Trump immunity that could make him a king?
            Do we need to re-debate the constitution from scratch to reflect the reality of life in 2024? Do we want to?

            In the American system, Musk was able to become the wealthiest man on the planet sometimes, depending on how the winds are blowing. He has thrived. Is what he’s got not enough? Would he break the system that he thrived in just to have more than enough to the power of infinity?

            Maybe he Musk dropped a pathogen onto American democracy to see if it could empirically test Yarvin’s hypothesis that democracies are weak, cannot be redeemed, and will be overthrown.

    1. Yes, he was a little crabby, but it was an excellent talk that will cause many to modify their views. Peak oil is a thing, it’s just not the thing we thought it was. Art is a formidable intellect.

  12. So far my experience with A.I has been highly disappointing.

    Meta.ai completely makes up stuff. Then when you catch it, it mentions “I must confess I made that up”. Then it apologises. Then it does it again few questions down the line. It is absolutely shocking how poor it is. If it doesn’t have access to certain information it makes it up on the fly.

    Also when the information is correct, when you challenge it, it says i may have made a mistake. It basically just conforms to the users challenge. Absolute rubbish algorithms.

    Bing.ai: This is basically an optimised search engine.

    I seriously do not understand what all the hype about A.I is. It is only as good as the people programming it, and its access to information. Most of the algorithms implemented from the little knowledge i have, have been around for decades.

    I feel at the moment A.I is more hype than anything else. Specifically in the level accessible to the public. Maybe in the military it is much more advanced and useful (in killing people with precision).

    What has your experience been with it ?

    1. AI is very good at Text and Pictures. Humans can interact with Text and Pictures therefore can be wowed by AI.

      AI is not intelligent. It is a Pattern Matcher. As long as the Patterns don’t change it can make good predictions.

      Unfortunately ( or Fortunately ) in our world the patterns change all the time.

      Linear Regression ( continous number predictions ), Logistic Regression ( True or False, 0 or 1 predictions ), Clustering ( taking data and grouping it into clusters and classifying it ), Neural Networks ( more sophisticated continuous and boolean predictions ).

      Make up the foundation of AI and Machine Learning.

      I learned all of those in High School and College decades ago….

      The idea AI is going to take over the world or that it is intelligent is RIDICULOUS.

      But their will be applications where it is very effective (text and pictures and scanners on self driving vehicles).

      There needs to be a breakthrough in the ALGORITHMS or what we have is a very very powerful pattern matcher.

      This is universally missed in the AI Hype.

    2. AI is good for doing things you tell it to. It’s pretty amazing at programming for example, as long as your instructions are clear and you give it small chunks of code to create.

      AI is also great at creating small graphics for the margins of magazine articles. Web design is another place it has already almost completely taken over. Also I have noticed that a lot of the barber shops around here have started advertising with AI generated pictures of fancy haircuts.

  13. More joyous news on state of Earth.

    GLOBAL TEMPERATURES SHATTERED RECORDS IN JANUARY

    “Earth’s prolonged streak of abnormal heat continued into 2025 despite the arrival of La Niña ocean conditions, which typically bring cooler temperatures. Earth’s surface has now been so warm for so much of the past two years that scientists are examining whether something else in the planet’s chemistry might have changed, something that is boosting temperatures beyond what carbon emissions alone can explain. Those emissions, the byproduct of burning coal, gas and oil, remain the main driver of global warming, which reached record levels in both 2023 and 2024.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/climate/earth-hottest-january.html

  14. Trivia question.

    Any odds as to when Musk becomes world’s first trillionaire? According to one wealth-tracking website, Elon Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire by 2027. Can’t wait to celebrate this event. Trouble is, I don’t expect to be alive by then.

    1. Elon could feed millions/billions of people with food to have a basic enjoyable life.

      But he is more interested in staying ahead of Jeff Beezos/Buffet/Gates/etc and World Domination.

      1. No he couldn’t, because he has paper wealth. The ‘poor’ require real food and real goods.

        Trying to transfer the billionaires paper wealth into real food and products can’t work unless there is a lot more food and products grown, mined, manufactured and made. We would need more land, mines mines, more transport, more factories, more irrigation etc. Perhaps we need Mars, with an atmosphere, plenty of extra water, then move it to a more Earth Like orbit of the sun where it’s a bit warmer….

        1. Fair Enough.

          But he does not seem interested in much beyond being the richest and most powerful guy there is.

          Putin is richer IMO, so let’s see who his next target is.

        2. Hideaway,

          There is enough food, it is a distribution and waste problem that could be addressed if wealthy nations and individuals care to do it.

    2. Sorry to hear that Doug, hope whatever health issues you may be having will resolve. You will be missed here at POB.

  15. Global Food Price index [short red line] declined in January 2025, mostly due to lower sugar, vegetable oil and meat prices. Will tariffs affect this index? I have no idea…

    1. Folks may start to want to be less public about where their loyalties lie as they continue to participate in the Musk surveillance network.

      1. Bob, I had recently been reminded that when you look at a segment civil society such as journalists, it only takes the authoritarians making examples of a few to teach the vast majority to fall in line and keep their head down and mouth shut.
        In other places, other times (and maybe soon here) the kinds of mechanisms used to intimidate journalists/free speech/whistleblowers/jurists, and simply voters, has been to take a few individuals and very publicly knee cap them- it could take all sorts of forms of character assassination, planting of criminal evidence, audit, threaten spouses children parents, seize bank accounts, fire bombing, falsify media posts/credit fraud/sexual misconduct, or simply… disappearance.
        None of this would be new in this world in places or times where civil society is on thin ice. And they now own the digital world on you- criminal/medical/financial/identity.
        “What do you mean that don’t have prior conviction for Federal Felony Embezzlement…it says right here on your National ID”

        The involuntary implantation of Neurolink will be new…new for awhile.

        I take all this, and what you say, with intense seriousness. These guys don’t play by the rules, and they are playing for keeps.
        Playing for keeps, and playing for literally $Trillions to a few.

        1. This is a constitutional crisis and your identification scenario is relevant to the first amendment, which the shareholders in this corporation democracy, must now revisit and determine its meaning within the context of the 21st century as opposed to its meaning in 1787, and then ratify or not, if the American Revolution 2.0 (A.R.2.0) is won by the revolutionaries and not the King and the Doges.

          “a situation where law enforcement searches or takes possession of a person’s property without a valid warrant or probable cause”

          None of the kings soldiers will ask to see your papers. Your identity will be determined with biometrics. US law is possibly not relevant now, as we may already in fact have a king. Or do we have a president, in which case, he can be impeached, and give us JD Vance. Is that better for U.S.?

          According to Perplexity.ai, The Doge “Elon Musk accused an X user of committing a crime for posting the names of individuals who allegedly assisted Musk with DOGE’s review of the U.S. Treasury payment system2. The user, @rayinsideout, shared the names of “techies on the ground helping Musk” in response to concerns about DOGE’s access to the Treasury data system2. Musk responded by stating, “You have committed a crime,” although the tweet was later deleted.”

          He’s been accused. Will he be arrested? In the court of the king, will he have fifth amendment rights and a trial by jury?

          It is critical to patriots of the United States and its constitution that we come to a rapid personal resolution if that is what we are, or if we want the Doges to win A.R.2.0

          Kevin Roberts, the president of The Heritage Foundation, said “We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be”

          In 2024, the right to bear arms may need to include the right to use open source a.i. It is interesting that the Chinese dropped DeepSeek onto the world at this particular juncture.

          I’m an anxious person, kind of hyper-vigilant to threats real or imagined. So I need help in resolving what is a real threat, or not.

          I started building bridges to red tribe members who are on my contacts list, which of course both the deep state (U.S. Intelligence) and the geek state (the tech industry) have on file. As they also do with you. I deleted my Tesla app last Monday, but a friend tonight told me that yesterday the Tesla app uploaded his contact list without his permission. He said that he has been always rigorous in his data hygiene and not allowed his phone or apps contact list permission, but Tesla didn’t ask permission. I have been haphazard in my privacy vigilance across different devices.

          They think in terms of memes, virality, probabilities. They are watching trends, market, betting markets. They know what is trending. I believe that they are doing things publicly to observe the reaction on the markets as a way of gauging .

          I don’t know who they are, what their objective really is. Musk may have personally decided that he must heroically save the planet from climate change with more direct action than building EV’s. That’s not the way it needs to be done. But the U.S. republic isn’t getting the job done in time.

          Hickory, thank you for letting me know that you heard me and take it seriously. My response since the occupation has caused both myself, and my friends and family that I’ve discussed this with to question my very sanity. The Butterfly Revolution. Is this just Qanon for libtards?

          I was thinking of asking Dennis Coyne as one of the operators of this board to just ban me if I was generating noise with no signal. Which, I guess I just did maybe. If I vanish though, how will you know if Dennis voted me off the island, or I was disappeared? LOL. I’m no threat to anyone.

          Lost the plot there for a second. Anyway back to the bridge building into the red team reality. I talked to an evangelical friend about his view of the current political events, and he is loving it. He’s enthusiastic about what Musk is doing with Doge. He doesn’t see Musk as a threat. For him, Musk is doing what he wants him to do, and Trump is in command and directing it. We see the world not as it is, but as we are, and from his Christian world view, the event that would cause him to reevaluate the situation would be for The U.S. to broker a treaty with Israel that they then break. I don’t know if Trump initiating something on Gaza that caused a breakdown of the Abraham Accords would qualify. I’ll have to inquire further. He is parsing all events through the filter of biblical end of times prophecy, so I need to brush up on signs of the times to start trying to imagine how developing events would look to people who live within that frame of reference.

          Boy, this is OFM level length (no derision, hope you are well). So quite uncharacteristic of my normal reticence in a space full of people with a STEM education.

          Musk, good or evil probability? Faithful civil servant (5%) Kleptocrat (90%) Genocidal eugenicist (5%).

          1. Good morning Bob, I find your posts refreshing and so glad you returned to continue. Have always made a point of trying to read your comments and think you are going down the correct dark rabbit hole. Myself, I feel from the left like I’m behind the eight ball constantly about were the right is leading the country, but far out front of most everyone. I find it hard and others I think find it unbelievable the USA is/has turned into a dictatorship. Your links have helped me understand what is going on and I have forwarded them to other close friends. They have shown a lot of interest.

            I would never use my legal name on a blog and didn’t even give POB a real email address posting here. But wouldn’t be surprised if with tech knowledge my posts could be traced back to myself. I refuse to be on facebook and other social media. I will never buy a Tesla and have been thinking maybe the only way to stop Trump is an economic and market collapse. Basically everyone one who believes in democracy stop buying anything that is not absolutely not necessary. For the last almost three weeks Trump has been doing everything to consolidate power and remove guardrails. Yesterday blocking Biden’s intel information was just another example.

            Hey buddy, stay strong and if you need to take a break, do so. I know a lot of people who have turned down the intake of political information because of exhaustion, including myself. But, I’m not going to stick my head in a hole in the ground.

            Hard to believe I’m rooting for an economic collapse to save and wake up America from Trump

            2. I´m quite certain all of us here are one list or another, so I don´t bother that much anymore, even/although being outside the US.
              Anyway, I really love this quote: “Just because you´re paranoid doesn´t mean they´re not out to get you”, might have caught it here, or at TOD at some time.
              Note, it works both ways politically.
              (no position, just observing)

    1. My argument has continually been that none of the Aluminium smelters are going off grid to run on solar, wind and batteries, because that combination is more expensive than the existing grid that runs mostly on fossil fuels.

      This article clearly states that 5GW of new capacity is required for the expansion. They have already signed up for 2.2GW of solar and wind..

      What are they not stating?? Quite obviously that 2.2GW of intermittent renewables cannot give the 5GW of power they need, nor will they provide the 120GWh of electricity required to run the plant for 24 hours..

      Let’s do a bit of math on this, assuming they can get 25% capacity factor on solar, and 35% capacity factor on wind, both numbers way above world averages. From their 2.2GW total renewables, assuming a 50/50 split, the total electricity provided by renewables is just on 16GWh/d for a plant that will be using 120GWh/d..

      How much battery storage are they going to use?? Anything less than 60GWh to just provide power overnight when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind isn’t blowing, a very common occurrence, tell you it’s all a marketing gimmick and not being realistic.

      60GWh of battery storage, to power just 1 windless night, would cost them over $20B fully installed, before we even get to the extra solar and wind required to charge the batteries. One night of battery storage is going to be nowhere near enough because there are these things called clouds that will reduce the CP of solar, and the wind might not blow for a few days in a row.

      How about you find out exactly how much battery capacity is being employed and who is paying for it, plus what the percentage of power renewables are providing for the plant before you gloat.
      Right at this minute black coal is providing 68% of Queenslands power to the grid, gas 3% with solar and wind combined 28%..

      I find it remarkable that those that want to push renewables as ‘the solution’, never bother to go into the actual numbers, but love the headlines of marketing pieces…

      1. Giant aluminium smelter seals future with groundbreaking “reverse battery” and renewables deal

        This is for a smelter in New Zealand but, this type of technology must be under consideration in Australia to accommodate the plans outlined by Rio Tinto for smelters in Australia.

        Tomago Aluminium smelter seeks partners in shift to 100 pct renewables

        If there are still places on the planet where human beings can survive after the oil run out, our species will have to go back to making hay (aluminum?) when the sun shines. Maybe the fact that I live on a tropical island where the temperature is currently 30 C under partly cloudy skies ( https://www.accuweather.com/en/jm/jamaica-weather ) makes it hard for me to appreciate the challenges faced by folks at higher latitudes that are currently experiencing winter. (Australia does not experience winter as it is experienced it the higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere as far as I am aware)

        The 2.75 kW solar PV array on the roof of my apartment has already produced some 3.8 kWh as we approach mid day here, despite being shaded until about 9:30 by a 20 story residential condo that is under construction to my east. There has been a total of a big fat zero of utility scale solar PV added to the grid since 2019 in my neck of the woods and the government’s EV policy can only be described as a failure. The duties on EVs were reduced in 2022 and license fees removed ostensibly to encourage car buyers to buy EVs. These incentives were originally capped at 1,000 vehicles per year and were subject to certain conditions as the minister in charge pointed out that import duties on motor vehicles are a major source of revenue for the government. Data on EV registrations is not published but unofficial estimates put the total number of EVs registered in the island at less than 500, including those that were imported before the “incentives” were instituted.

        I remain frustrated by the lack of urgency, both globally and where I live, in adopting technology that is now less expensive than burning fossil fuels. It is what it is.

        1. Islandboy, changing the Aluminium smelter from the one that you brought up as the example to one in NZ that runs off hydro is just a distraction..

          You made claims about what was happening in Queensland, so look it up with details, instead of just believing the marketing…

          Islandboy …” in adopting technology that is now less expensive than burning fossil fuels. ”

          The only reason you or anyone else falls for this rhetoric is because you want to believe it. If it were close to true, then market forces would be making it happen quickly everywhere. A new Aluminium smelter operating off grid on solar, wind and batteries would out compete the normal smelters lowering prices, putting the fossil fuel ones out of business!!

          It simply is not happening!! Why?? because the rhetoric does not match the reality!! Open your eyes and do the math on the cost of setting up an Aluminium smelter on solar, wind and batteries!!

        2. Islandboy —

          New Zealand’s one and only aluminun smelter is powered exclusively by hydro using imported alumina. It was opened in 1971 following the construction of the Manapouri Power Station by the New Zealand government to supply it with electricity. The facility is the largest electricity consumer in New Zealand. It uses about one third of the total electricity consumed in the South Island. Raw material is imported. Nothing magical about it, in fact it is very unpopular with New Zealanders.

          Significant amounts of hazardous waste have been stored at the site, mainly spent cell liner (also known as spent pot lining) containing compounds including fluoride and cyanide. Estimates of the waste stockpiled at the site range up to a quarter of million tonnes. It has been described as uncontrolled, unconsented and untreated in complete absence of any regulatory oversight or recognition, being the largest stockpile of hazardous waste in Australasia and posing an estimated $NZ300 million liability.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiwai_Point_Aluminium_Smelter

    2. Thank you for this one and good links in the past! Excellent information.

  18. Reality check for anyone interested.

    AN ARCTIC MELTDOWN IS ACCELERATING GLOBAL WARMING

    “Scientists have some sobering news to share: Earth exceeded 1.5 degrees of warming in 2024, it’s hurtling fast toward even more warming, and it has already changed in irreversible ways. According to research published on Thursday, Feb. 6 in Science, even if every country kept its current Paris Agreement pledges—and that’s a big if—the globe will still be on course to warm 2.7 degrees Celsius, or 4.9 degrees Fahrenheit, by the year 2100.”

    https://phys.org/news/2025-02-arctic-meltdown-global.html

    1. Doug, what I always find amusing is that people don’t understand how much heat is absorbed by the fusion of water from a solid to a liquid, which is happening at the poles.

      It takes 334Kj to melt 1kg of ice into 1Kg of water at 0 degrees, yet once that water is melted it will only take 4.18Kj to raise the temperature of the water 1 degree C.

      So much of the heat generated by all the greenhouse gasses is going into melting ice, and once we get to a blue ocean summer in the Arctic, the heating will appear to accelerate, yet it’s just the same quantity of heat being added.

      1. Hideaway —
        My background is geophysics and geology so I’m familiar with your arguement. Thanks for the comment anway though because others may not be.

      2. The ice caps’ albedo – the high reflectivity of the ice surface – returns a portion of the insolation energy back to space. When the ice is gone, the blue liquid water absorbs almost all of the energy and turns it into thermal heat, which eventually is convected to the atmosphere.

        So it is a positive feedback situation. warmer air causes the ice to melt, exposing more liquid water surface. More liquid water surface means more of the incoming insolation energy turns to thermal heat, which heats the air more.

      3. Hideaway

        I rarely disagree with you posts.
        But can you watch your units of measure, especially the use of upper and lower cases.
        k= kilo or 1000 a thousand grams is a kg
        J= joule not j
        The SI system is really very simple and the best in my opinion . Sadly were saddled with many competing units of measure which only adds to misunderstandings.

        1. +1

          Carnot, I’ve mentioned the same thing to Hideaway before. Please use proper SI units specifically regarding lower and upper cases.

    2. We can all talk about global warming…and Chinese or Indian coal consumption,
      but lets face it- every single one of us is a big fat combuster.
      Every time the furnace fires up, the engine turns over, the washer spins.
      Everyday, all day.

      “Jan2025 just set a record for the highest yearly minimum global surface temperature, and likely the highest minimum in the last 120,000 years.”
      This La Nina cycle is failing to knock back the warming/melting trend.

      1. True, assuming the “we” you’re referring to is the US. The cognitive dissonance is a bear.

        Also true…..

        Various elements of the fossil fuel and media industries have supported misinformation campaigns for many decades. Successfully.

        One particular side of the political aisle in the US has consistently opposed efforts to transition away from fossil fuels. For many decades, and with great success.

        Tech exists now (and has existed) to wean ourselves from a majority of this addiction while still supporting much of the lifestyle that people don’t want to give up. At least in the short term of scores of years.

        1. T Hill

          What causes more environmental destruction. 2 billion people using lng to cook, or 2 billion people using charcoal and wood to cook with?

          https://engineering.princeton.edu/news/2021/08/09/planting-forests-may-cool-planet-more-thought

          https://allianceforscience.org/blog/2020/11/health-and-forests-suffer-as-east-africa-continues-to-rely-on-biomass-fuels/

          Fact is there are too many people using up everything.

          The Chinese government has allowed coal consumption to climb to 4.6 billion tonnes, they have done this to provide cheap electricity for their factories. They would not do that if it was expensive.

          Chemicals based farming which has increased productivity is now reaching it’s limits and soil erosion coupled with aquifer depletion will see global food production start to fall.

          Food prices are already starting to increase.

          1. Loadsofoil,

            Your question is too broad to answer without framing it a bit more tightly, so I will do so first and quantify it a bit as well.

            1. I will take the population part of your question literally. 2B people total. Period. So perhaps at some time in the early 22nd century if you use the forecasts that Dennis has shared on this site.

            2. Modern pellet stoves are common, convenient and much more efficient (80%+) than a simple bonfire. Even better efficiencies (95%+) are available in tech that is hundreds of years old and much simpler. Masonry heaters. I built the one I’ve used for decades. Very clean burning. The picture of an open campfire doesn’t need to be the baseline for comparison.
            The ash can also serve as a good component for soil improvement in some cases.

            3. Biomass is carbon neutral. LNG is decidedly not. LNG also has other unavoidable and significant environmental impacts that biomass doesn’t share.

            4. I don’t think I could definitively cite a global, sustainable annual biomass yield. However, the literature that is available on this suggests that it would indeed be adequate for cooking and heating for 2B.

            The answer is clear. Biomass would be much more sustainable than LNG in this scenario.

            Obviously, we’re not at 2B. The ecological footprint of the current population, lifestyle and consumption levels is not sustainable.

            Your speculated forecast for future drops in global food production seems likely, but I’m not aware of any clear signal that we’ve passed this threshold.

            1. T Hill

              Sorry I just assumed you would know that approximately 2 billion people rely on wood and charcoal for cooking.

              Where would people in Africa get wood pellets from and how could they pay for them when they gather wood for free because they cannot afford anything else.

              Also the process of making wood pellets is hardly environmentally friendly.

              https://www.drax.com/us/uncategorized/9-steps-to-making-a-compressed-wood-pellet/

              The literature I posted if you read it, has concluded that the forests are being destroyed by unsustainable clearing for firewood.

              Regarding food production, generally prices are a good indicator of availability and prices have been increasing far more over the last few years.

              Over 700 million people are in a state of constant malnutrition.

              https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/five-alarming-statistics-on-global-hunger

              I would have thought that is a pretty clear signal. The global poor are the canary in the coal mine. The numbers are getting worse and worse.

      2. Hickory —

        “….. lets face it- every single one of us is a big fat combuster…”

        Don’t forget all the Air Conditioners. “According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), air conditioning currently accounts for roughly 10% of global electricity consumption, meaning a significant portion of the world’s energy is used for cooling purposes, primarily through air conditioning units.”

  19. “Is the president a fascist? Yes. Whether he actually knows what that means is an open question”

    Not being one of the brightest porch lights on the block, probably not.

    1. The concept of the Ivanapah Solar Generating station was somewhat flawed at the outset. My big problem with these systems is that they consist of two many moving parts, 173,500 heliostats (mirrors) that focus sunlight on three separate collectors mounted at the top of 459 foot (140m) tall towers. No two heliostats focusing on a particular collector are focused at the same angle so every single mirror must track the sun all day. Multiply that by 173,500 and you get an idea of the potential points of failure. Another somewhat similar project has been built, the Crescent Dunes plant near Toonpah, roughly half way between Reno and Las Vegas. The Crescent Dunes facility uses a molten salt thermal storage system that allows the plant to continue generating in the absence of sunshine for up to ten hours. This brings up another downside to these plants, the high operating temperatures and the daily cycling of the receivers, an engineers nightmare.

      Having said that, I see nothing wrong with wealthy countries like the US throwing some money at the technology to see how well it does or does not scale and whether or not it can actually work. I’m sure valuable lessons have been learnt that can be taken into consideration by anybody that wants to explore the technology. Having tried it, folks can now say, “that has been tried and here are the issues that came up”.

      As usual the right wing and their media mouthpieces like to trot out the example of Solyndra when this sort of thing is being is discussed. Can I repeat for the umpteenth time SOLYNDRA WAS AN EXCEEDINGLY FUCKINGLY DUMB iDEA TO BEGIN WITH! (My apologies to those that are offended by my “French”) . I enrolled in a one week training course at the Florida Solar Energy Center back in 2010. I asked around at the course, what would be a good trade show to attend to see the latest and greatest solar technology available. I was told Intersolar was the event to attend so the following year I dutifully attended Intersolar at the Moscone Center in San Francisco. Solyndra had a booth at the event and I distinctly remember when the concept was explained at the booth thinking to myself, “What a dumb idea!”. Remember, less than a year before the show I had attended training at FSEC that had given me a pretty good idea of how solar PV technology works. Anyone with this basic knowledge and two working brain cells should have been able to figure out that this concept was stupid! Again, I remember listening to a Solyndra rep explaining their technology and thinking to myself that that it made no sense whatsoever. Bi-facial solar PV panels also seek to take advantage of reflected solar energy but, they are much simpler and cheaper to build than Solyndra’s cylindrical cells (pictured here: https://www.forbes.com/pictures/mek45fjmm/solar-electric-tubes/ ). There are actually measurable increases in yield that can be achieved with bi-facial panels that outweigh their marginally higher cost.

      So when anybody tries to equate everything “green” with Solyndra it just upsets me! These solar thermal plants have their upside and their downside but, none of them were even remotely in the same league as Solyndra.

  21. Fascism, according to Benito Mussolini, is the joining of state and corporate power.
    The United States Constitution guarantees freedom of religion for a reason. The framers of it had concluded through experience and their knowledge of history that the power of the state and the power of the church to be joined, is non optimal.

    So what about the power of the state and the power of the corporation being joined? Is that non-optimal?

    Elon Musk loves technology: rockets, global satellite communication networks, self driving electric cars, computer to brain interfaces, artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, drones.

    Does he love humanity? He has said that he does. And what is meant by humanity anyway. A
    All humans, or just some humans? We know that it is true the Elon loves technology, because that’s what he has built for himself. It is what he is evangelical about. It is almost a religious devotion. His god. His false idol.

    On the day that President of the United States, Donald Trump decreed Mexico, Canada, Greenland, Ukraine, and Gaza to be territories of America, Google Maps were updated to reflect this change in nomenclature. From the northern pole of the planet, to the Isthmus of Panama, the label simply read America.

    It was a Sunday, and Donald Trump made this declaration at the focal point of American attention on that day: The Super Bowl. The U.S. Secret Service agents surrounding him quickly sprang to place him under arrest for treason, as this was a treasonous act according to the constitution of the United States of America. HaHaHaHa. No they didn’t. They were loyalists of Donald Trump, king of America.

    After declaring the new shape of his kingdom. He also declared universal health care in the kingdom. Go to any doctor in the kingdom of America, and he would pay for it with the coin of the realm. He declared the price of one dozen eggs to be one U.S. dollar. It was a spectacle of immense showmanship by a reality TV star, capped with a dramatic victorious fly-over of American Fighter Jets.

    The director of the Department Of Government Efficiency was not in attendance. He was working the weekend with his elite coding team in the treasury of the United States. Working weekends is a super power.

    America is not a NATO member.

    There is a Mormon prophecy that the United States Constitution will hang by a thread, and the Elders of Zion will save it.

    1. Bob —

      Actually the United States is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The US was one of the 12 founding members of NATO in 1949.

      1. Thanks Doug, I appreciate your comments here.

        The United States of America is, yes.

    2. Bob….he also declared
      On day 100 that
      ‘elections were inefficient theatre, a distraction to the mission of my Monocracy.’
      On day 101 his men in suits declared a freeze on all unapproved capital outflows.
      On day 102 his men in suits declared that there will be a Universal Basic Income set at 2000$/yr fixed,
      to replace all other forms of government payments, grants, subsidies and entitlement payments to citizens. Medicare/Medicaid program to be phased out over a three year period.

    3. Well Bob
      I’m glad you’re waking up to some level of reality but you’re 80 years late to the show. If you had read “War is a Racket” by Smeadly Butler you would have drawn your conclusions much sooner. The industrial military complex has been alive and well all this time making the world safe for “Democracy “ which is the euphemism for global free market capitalism.
      You should also read “The Washington Connection and Third World Fascism “ by Noam Compsky
      It could be easily argued that the Nazis lost the physical war but won the ideological war. The US mearly picked up where they left off.
      While you’re at it read Manufacturing Consent by Noam Chomsky it will help you understand why losing USAID is such a blow to the Western propaganda machine.

      1. Thanks JT. I certainly want to be awoken, and I’ll pursue those reading recommendation.

    4. After a long conversation this morning with someone I respect immensely. My Musk meter is now set to hero (70%) villain (30%)

    1. Chinese real estate loss $20 trillion in value. That is in US dollar terms not in their local currency terms.

      The Chinese hold their wealth in real estate. Comparison to the US where wealth is stored in financial assets. It’s like the US stock market losing $20 trillion in market cap. Or 1/3 of its total value.

      Why anyone would assume everything is ok in China is beyond my comprehension.

    2. John it seems to be a popular trend-
      ‘In the United States, passenger car retail sales decreased by 15.5% year-over-year in 2025’

      Its not all bad news, in fact l see it as good news. Would like to see continuing declines, indefinitely.
      “With technological advancements, today’s average car lifespan is approximately 12 years or 200,000 miles. Some vehicles, especially electric cars, can even reach up to 300,000 miles or more. In the past, cars would typically last around eight years or 150,000 miles”

  23. Apology in advance for my continuing topic obsession.
    I asked a friend when he first became aware of Elon Musk and what he first thought of him.
    He said he thought he was doing cool things: electric cars, renewable energy, etc.
    I asked his present opinion and he responded: “I hate his guts.” the tipping point was Musk throwing support behind Trump. This matches my own experience. I self identify politically as green left. My top concern is humans damaging and diminishing the ecology of the one planet we know of that supports life. I consider the Earth’s ecology to be the primary economy, a concept first introduced to me by John Michael Greer, a writer that came to my attention about the same time the Oil Drum did, and when Drumbeat, which I loved, ended, and Darwinian launched peakoilbarrel to fill the void, I migrated.

    My view, and the view of my above mentioned friend matched in that Musk intrigued me in the beginning, but now I don’t even want to ride as a passenger in my brother’s Tesla anymore, and I won’t own one now. My brother’s early ’21 Model Y has been a great car. He has had no build quality issues. No reliability issues, No noticeable range declines, and has taken it on 1,000 mile road trips and has found the speed and convenience of the Supercharging experience to be fine, and prefers to drive it on long trips over any of the also reliable petrol cars that he owns. I don’t love everything about the Model Y. I don’t like the present era of massive screens in cars, but aside from that touch screen, the TMY is my favorite car interior by a wide margin, and the styling of the car by a small one.

    Trump first came to my attention in about 1990, and I loathed him then, and I loath him now, and there is a big stretch in the middle that he came to my attention not at all, which was lovely. I’ve never seen an episode of The Apprentice.

    My take is that (some) Trump fans have had the opposite Musk experience. They disliked him in the beginning, and they love him now, and it seems like the toggle switched along with Musk’s transition from energy transition advocate for climate and peak oil reasons, to first a Republican supporter, which bothered me a little bit, to Dark Gothic Maga. Which first baffled me, and then terrified me when his DOGE team plugged their computers into the U.S. federal treasury because he’d lost my trust, and I no longer know who he is, and DOGE at the helm of the treasury at the consent and oversight of only Trump seems non-optimal on the risk to reward ration. Is Musk masked now, or before? Or was there never a mask, he just changed, as people do.

  24. Not good.

    WORLD MAY HAVE ENTERED ERA OF 1.5C WARMING, SCIENTISTS SAY

    The Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is a small-sounding number with big implications for people and nature. It is a marker of risk, with more warming from planet-heating emissions linked to worsening floods, heat waves and storms, as well as gradual effects like sea level rise and species extinction.

    “Every fraction of a degree beyond this level translates into more extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and human suffering,” said William Ripple, Professor at Oregon State University.

    https://phys.org/news/2025-02-world-era-15c-scientists.html

    1. Meanwhile,

      RECORD JANUARY HEAT SUGGESTS LA NIÑA MAY BE LOSING ITS ABILITY TO KEEP GLOBAL WARMING IN CHECK

      January 2025 was the hottest on record—a whole 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels. If many climate-watchers expected the world to cool slightly this year thanks to the natural “La Niña” phenomena, the climate itself didn’t seem to get the memo. In fact, January 2025’s record heat highlights how human-driven ocean warming is increasingly overwhelming these natural climate patterns.

      https://phys.org/news/2025-02-january-la-nia-ability-global.html

      1. On the “bright” side, since this winter has been very warm and electricity cheap here in the north of Sweden my payback calculations for the new woodstove has been ruined. But the continental folks and the UKs have obviously had a much harder time. How warm does it need to be to grow grapes btw?

  25. “Jagu’s and Rajesh’s mental illnesses had been precipitated — even caused, perhaps — by the apocalypse of Partition, its political trauma sublimated into their psychic trauma. Partition, they knew, had split apart not just nations, but also minds.” Siddhartha Mukherjee, The Gene.

  26. “The least educated states were Louisiana, Mississippi, and West Virginia.”

    1. But perhaps not “dumb” per se?
      WV migt be different though, there´s often excemptions from the rule.

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