I hate that my government is being sold.
Piece by piece.
Mostly by first dibbs.
What will we do when it is gone?
It’s not all being sold. Some is being stolen and a lot more is just being trashed.
Nothing lasts forever.
Federal employees have been living high off the hog for a very long time. It’s time they start feeling economic pain like those who didn’t go into government work. The reality is, Pres. Trump and his advisors are finally providing some accountability to hugely bloated agencies. In spite of whatever the vocal minority huffs and puffs here and elsewhere, the vast majority of Americans agree this is long overdue.
A math teacher friend of mine has spent years struggling with the reality that a large number of people either cannot understand simple math/facts, choose not to try, or are ready to simply ignore and distort facts when they don’t serve their interests or world view. He continues to beat his head against the wall trying to explain simple truths. Certainly 1plus 1 must equal 2, and if only I try hard enough they will get it. Sadly, the pervasiveness of ‘alternate facts’ and propaganda has helped change this perspective.
“Vast majority”? Try that math again
As of November 2024 around 3mm (1.87%) of all workers work for the government. As percentage of the federal budget payroll+ bennies is around 4.3% of total spending. So even if one were to cut that in half it wouldn’t move the needle with respect to the deficit.
Any organization after a while gets bloated and trimming it makes sense, just like Clinton did in ’94 when he signed the “Federal Workforce Restructuring Act”.
The way Trump /Musk go about it is to vilify government workers and throw red meat to their followers, who are most likely to get hurt by the seeming borderline random cuts.
That said, pruning an organization as large as the Federal government probably makes sense if it were done in a thoughtful manner. I would not be surprised if this rough way of cutting sets the table to do equal cuts to medicare/aid, SS, and also the military. Cutting the deficit is a good thing but it looks like the savings are not going there but rather to extend/ expand tax cuts to those who didn’t ask for it and don’t need it, otherwise there would be no need to increase the debt ceiling by 4T.
Rgds
WP
Agreed WP…once again.
Thanks WP, agreed.
I’m guessing that some of your numbers came from the 1/7/25 Pew report on federal workers. Good stuff. In particular, it was a good reminder about how much of the federal workforce is defense related. Almost half of the 3 million civilian workers are directly or indirectly part of the military/defense mission. Add in the 1.3 million military and that’s roughly 2/3 of the 4.3 million total federal employees.
When the IRS is one of the organizations going on the chopping blocks you know that they are not interested in improving things but primarily trying to reduce the cost to those who can afford sophisticated accountants.
This as all in keeping with the Grover Norquist philosophy:
“Our goal is to shrink the government down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub.”
They do not believe the government has any use except to protect private property with a military establishment and police force (and screw the veterans). Everything else is waste including anything that helps the unfortunate.
Trump has hired the richest man in the world to do this and virtually his first act was to literally take food out of the mouths of the poorest children in the world and let it rot on the dock. Evil.
What do they do, besides go on expenses paid trips to foreign countries. Like that parasite in Los Angels who was on trip to African country while fires raged through the city. This being after she cut fire department budget despite being told the dangers of not clearing dry areas.
Funny how people who don’t know what the fuck they’re talking about feel emboldened these days to run their mouths.
“The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.”
The Andrew Bird version ain’t too bad neither:
“Well, the best lack all conviction
And the worst keep sharpening their claws”
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
The YR4 asteroid now has a 1.5% chance of hitting earth. It’s like 200ish feet long according to Wikipedia. We can just nuke it into smaller pieces right?
We don’t yet know the composition of the rock. If it hits earth it will be on a well defined line near the equator, somewhere between central America and India. Most likely it will a Tunguska scale air burst explosion. 50% chance of it being over water, no damage. If it explodes over a major population centre, most likely over India, it could kill millions.
Only the US would have the resources to launch an interception mission in the time scales available. In the current political environment, would they even bother?
I used to read quite a bit about the history of the nazis prior to WWII in order to gain some understanding of how they came to power. Some people accused me of sympathizing with them and even supporting them.
Now I see the same thing happening in my own country. The every day working class people with the most to lose are the backbone, the foot soldiers, of the emerging nazi class here in my own country.
I’m not yet saying it’s all over for us as a free society but unless we come to our collective senses soon ……………
“Hain’t we got all the fools in town on our side? And hain’t that a big enough majority in any town?”
( Twain of course)
I personally know dozens of people who fervently believe trump and company can do no wrong. When they’re reduced to living under bridges they will still be blaming the Democrats for any and every problem.
For those who are not Trump diehards, which includes not just democratic voters but also republicans who silently are disgusted by him and his camp, a major overhaul of the parties is in order.
Neither can or should simply rewind to prior platforms or stances. What is relevant for the 2030’s and beyond?
I haven’t heard from anyone just what will be practical, appealing, sane, and forward leaning. A hell a lot of work to be done.
Perhaps we are now going into long term reversal mode, with re-concentration of wealth and power into the hands of a few. And the power of the state isn’t just in control of the swords like in past centuries, but also more and more so the digital, the robotic, the information world, the financial world. The tools under control of the state are hard for most people to fathom.
The US is being exposed as what it is, a full blown oligarchy. The Citizens united Supreme Court decision sealed it’s fate and now you have shadow president Musk. Who needs to actually be president whn you can buy one?
We are already at a level of wealth concentration equal to the Gilded Age. It is staggering to me that this is now being exacerbated by the very working class voters who have suffered and suffer the most.
The Democratic party has to accept some level of blame for the situation. The wealth concentration has continued through their share of government control and they have done a dismal job of messaging, allowing the worst elements of right wing ideology to control the message while they have become as dependent on the big money doners as have the far right and watched the primary system push the Republicans to choose between extremism and being primaried out of office.
Both of your 12:40 and 12:48 comments are great JJHMAN.
The U.S. commanded 26% of the global GDP in 2023, with just 4% of the global population. There’s no excuse for the wealth disparity that exists here, but greed and lust for power has some explanatory weight. I personally don’t care (but could be convinced otherwise) if there is a ceiling of wealth, so long as it can’t buy political power, and so long as the floor is sufficiently high.
Musk came to the US on a on a J-1 visa in 1992 with, according to him, just $2,000 to his name. He became a naturalized citizen of the U.S. in 2002, and became the world’s richest many by January of 2021. Government (progressive) policy, loans, and tax credits had a lot to do with the success of both Tesla and Space-X, yet he hates the U.S. Government? Can’t he just work out his pathology from bad parenting in the way Jim Morrison advocated in The End?
Thanks, Bob.
“according to him”
Elon Musk’s father was at least “very well off” and, by some accounts, gave him at least $200,000 to start Zip2.
Like many supposed self-made men Elon has a hard time remembering how much help he had along the way. It’s probably not a big surprise but the dad, Errol Musk, was an awful person too.
Market taking a hit.
Is reality sinking in?
Really? S&P was 5750 in Nov and 5866 last month. Today 6136. Let me know when it goes below 5866 again…
“Taking a hit” does not infer an all time low. The three big indices down 3% in two days does even if it doubles on Monday.
Good Riddance.
Mitch McConnell Finally Announces He Won’t Run Again.
Get the scum out.
This is in the context of how people are divided and headstrong steadfast in their opinions. On the 10-year anniversary, what color is The Dress: Black/Blue or Gold/White?
What does this imply to grouping of people in their ability to process information? Are they easily manipulated by other factors and by their preconceived notions?
Global warming: Anthropogenic factor or business on CO2
February 21/ 10:51
Nizhnevartovsk. Key issues of global climate change, increase in greenhouse gases, as well as increase in air temperature in the northern regions were discussed by participants of the video conference of the Oil and Gas Information Agency. The event was attended by experts of the Oil and Gas Information Agency and industry representatives.
The main speaker – Honored Geologist of Yugra, PhD in Geology and Mineralogy, expert of the Agency Alexander Shpilman devoted his speech to the key issue of the last decades – warming. To begin with, the expert cited data on the geological history of temperature changes on Earth. According to him, over the past 10 thousand years, the temperature on Earth has changed insignificantly and remained at the same level.
As Alexander Vladimirovich added, the concept of “global warming” appeared in the 80s, when the international group on climate change IPCC noted a systematic increase in temperature, which caused concern. But then the indicator changed by 1 ° C in 120 years.
“If we go back to our time, then, according to ROSHYDROMET, modern warming continues throughout Russia, in general, for the year and in all seasons. The growth rate of the average annual temperature in Russia for the period 1976-2022 was 0.49℃ / 10 years,” the speaker noted.
Table from the speaker’s presentation
To track temperature changes, experts conducted an analysis in three points on Earth – Tyumen, Khanty-Mansiysk and Salekhard. According to weather stations, changes in the average annual temperature over the past 30 years in Tyumen were +1 ° C, in Khanty-Mansiysk +1.2 ° C, but in Salekhard +2.13 ° C.
As the expert explained, over the 30-year period under study, a trend towards an increase in the average annual temperature by 1–2 ° C has been observed.
Table from the speaker’s presentation
“At the same time, the Arctic territories are warming up much faster. This conclusion requires verification at other weather stations located in the Arctic. High correlation of data on average annual temperatures at stations located far from each other indicates the planetary nature of these changes,” added Alexander Vladimirovich.
Also in his report, the expert addressed the study of the concentration and change of CO2 in the atmosphere.
“Carbon dioxide is an integral part of the air mixture, but its concentration outside is about 400-450 ppm (parts per million), which corresponds to 0.04% of the volume concentration. Indoors, the concentration of CO2 reaches about 800 ppm. A dangerous indicator for humans begins at 4000-5000 ppm. And, I also want to remind you that CO2 is a heavy gas, with an atmospheric density of 1.20 kg/m3, it weighs 1.9 kg/m3,” said Alexander Shpilman.
In this regard, ideas arise that this gas, when it settles on the ground, causes a greenhouse effect.
Table from the speaker’s presentation
For example, Alexander Vladimirovich presented data on how much CO2 is produced and consumed by humans on Earth. He noted that all burned fossil fuels emit ~ 46 billion tons of CO2 per year when burned, and all volcanoes – 0.3-0.4 billion tons. 100 times less than the burned hydrocarbon fuel.
“People exhale ~ 2.8 billion tons of CO2 per year. This is 10 times more than volcanoes, but 10 times less than CO2 from burned coal. If we take into account ~ 130 billion mammals on Earth, assume that they exhale only 10 liters of CO2 per hour, then this will amount to 87 m3 or ~ 170 kg per year. In total, all mammals emit 22 billion tons of CO2 per year. There are ~3 trillion trees on Earth. One tree absorbs ~100 kg of CO2 per year. All trees absorb ~300 billion tons of CO2 per year. But this carbon is reversible, trees end their lives and return to carbon in various states, some of it is buried in sediments,” the speaker added.
Alexander Vladimirovich noted that people should take this CO2 cycle into account in nature.
Summarizing his speech, the expert noted that the changes in temperature that are currently observed on the planet cannot be explained by changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Their causes are of a planetary nature, therefore, regardless of whether they are biological or geological, it is imperative to study and develop measures.
The next report within the framework of the conference was presented by the General Director of the State Commission on Mineral Reserves Igor Shpurov on the topic “Using the concept of the clean energy index (CEI) for sustainable development.”
According to Igor Viktorovich, the Clean Energy Index allows you to form a sustainable development strategy, evaluate the efficiency of clean energy production, while taking into account the accumulated experience, risks and threats, as well as all factors influencing technological aspects on the economic and environmental consequences of using various energy sources. Thanks to the ICE, you can analyze the situation on the energy supply market, determine the most economical way to safely and sustainably provide the population with energy in the medium and long term.
“The Clean Energy Index will also contribute to the formation of a sustainable economy and integrated management of natural resources,” the expert added. “In the field of sustainable development, Goal 7 stands out, which talks about ensuring universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. But the question arises: how inexpensive, how clean? And in general, can clean energy be inexpensive? And can inexpensive energy be clean? We proclaim such principles, but we do not really understand what is behind them.”
To calculate the CEI, the experts used artificial intelligence, for this, the ChatGPT 3.0 model was chosen. The calculation uses a database that includes data from the IEA (International Energy Agency), World Bank Energy Data, Global Carbon Atlas, WHO (World Health Organization) and others.
Table from the speaker’s presentation
“The results of the study turned out to be quite interesting. We formed types of fuel by emission volumes from the dirtiest, coal, to the cleanest – solar energy. But when the ICHE was formed, it turned out that coal had the lowest index, and therefore the best one. After it came gas and oil, then hydropower, wind, nuclear and solar. So why is this happening? It’s simple, the cost of coal and all stages of energy production for fossil fuel extraction is much lower. Nuclear energy is a fairly expensive type. At the stage of extraction, disposal of radioactive waste structures, a huge number of costs are generated. Yes, this is a very clean type of energy, but very expensive,” Igor Shpurov emphasized.
According to him, such data indicate only one thing – there is a lack of technology that would make nuclear and wind generation clean energy. In the world, contradictions arise between technological development and good intentions to provide expensive and clean energy.
“That is why today we are talking about the fact that the 21st century is the century of fossil fuels. Because in order to be “clean” and inexpensive, a lot of time, effort and money are needed,” the expert said.
Igor Viktorovich also highlighted issues for further development of the Clean Energy Index. As the expert noted, the indicator evaluates the cost of generating clean energy for a full cycle. In addition to what has already been done, it is necessary to evaluate each direct project for the extraction of minerals. But, unfortunately, today it is not possible to implement this, but it is necessary to work on this issue.
“Some colleagues tried to persuade us to include social aspects in the clean energy index. We believe that this should not be done, because social aspects are still a completely different chain. Although a person who lives without energy, strictly speaking, does not care whether it is “clean” or not. He still needs to get it here and now,” Igor Shpurov summed up.
The moderator of the conference, Agency expert Alexander Khurshudov, in conclusion of his speech clarified when we will be able to manage these energy processes: in the distant future or still not very distant? Igor Viktorovich noted that this issue should be primarily addressed by the state.
“The state should regulate business development in such a way that technologies emerge that could ensure the future. From the figures given in the report, it is obvious to me that we have no developments in this area today. And they will not appear in the near future, especially for those areas that would replace fossil fuels in this regard. And if we had come to these conclusions 10-15 years ago, we would have understood this earlier. Geological exploration for oil and gas was curtailed, and renewable sources did not go, and we essentially stopped developing. This is why we need a clean energy index in order to carry out visible planning and assess our capabilities,” noted Igor Shpurov.
In turn, Alexander Khurshudov wondered why everyone focuses so much on CO2? According to him, methane produces exactly the same greenhouse effect, even stronger. Finally, water vapor produces a greenhouse effect. Why is no one talking about it, maybe because it cannot be traded?
Alexander Shpilman noted the well-known fact that among gases that can cause a greenhouse effect, water vapor is in first place. And, according to experts, it accounts for about 50% of the greenhouse effect.
“But you understand, if you decide to fight life, CO2, organic carbon, and then fight water, then you have decided to destroy life on earth at the root? You can’t fight all this, it is the basis of life for any creature, not just humans. At first, the study of CO2 was a scientific discussion, until they said that they would take and transfer money for it, it immediately became clear that there were many who wanted to “fight” it. And, of course, make money on it. In connection with this, the US President withdrew from the Paris Agreement, refusing to pay,” he specified.
Alexander Vladimirovich returned to Igor Shpurov’s report, which clearly demonstrates the fact that wind and solar generation have not taken root. And it was not surprising for the expert that coal and gas became the cheapest types of energy.
“My opinion is that all the interest in CO2 is not related to concern for nature,” the expert emphasized.
In conclusion of the conference, PhD, Honored Geologist of Russia Valery Karpov emphasized that the problem that was raised during the discussion is understandable to every ordinary person. But some things are still in the fog. He agreed with Igor Shpurov that the transition to environmentally friendly types of fuel is too far away, due to the fact that technologies lag behind needs. The expert noted that coal, oil and gas will remain a priority for a long time.
“If these resources remain a priority for many years, then it is necessary to seriously think about increasing the efficiency of geological exploration. Otherwise, very soon they will also be included in the number of, so to speak, unreliable and uneconomical. Because this process is very capital-intensive and costly. And here we need to look for ways to make them cheaper and increase efficiency,” summed up Valery Karpov.
————-
In this article, several diagrams can be found at the link. I believe that it is stupid to discuss the topic of reducing hydrocarbon consumption – all available ones will be extracted and used sooner or later, regardless of anything. Global warming exists, as does the anthropogenic factor, but how great the influence of the anthropogenic factor is is not exactly known, this is a topic for speculation. Scientists in pursuit of grants or due to their beliefs can be biased. If they close an aluminum smelting plant in Europe, then they will build it in Indonesia, this is wrong. Several decades ago, the fight against freon gases was also discussed. In my opinion, it is more important to fight deforestation and forest fires and immigration. Immigration contributes to overpopulation of the planet, which leads civilization to disaster. https://www.angi.ru/news/2923125-%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B5%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5%3A%20%D0%90%D0%BD%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D1%84%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%20%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8%20%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%81%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%A1%D0%9E2/
Sad waste of electricity and potential brain power. Sponsored by the fossil fuel industries of Russia.
Keep trying…the campaign may work since humans are pretty gullible.
In some ways Russia will benefit from a hotter earth, and Russia has plenty of money to earn from selling the combustibles, so I understand the motivation.
Better use some of the earned money to get really good at fire fighting, and improving the engineering of projects built in melting permafrost.
Opritov Alexander —
Sorry but your post sounds like gibberish to me.
Opritov
Great information. Water vapor is the greatest greenhouse gas and no one talks about it.
Freon would never have been an issue had it been reclaimed from the beginning. Now we are using flammable and semi flammable refrigerants. Literally propane in new refrigerators. Brilliant!!!
For LNG we often use propane in a pre-cool circuit to cool the incoming gas before it moves along to the mixed refrigerant loop. For mixed refrigerant it’s typically a mix of nitrogen, methane, ethane, and sometimes iso-pentane. I’m talking many, many thousands of tons of refrigerant for a typical liquefaction train. The refrigerant lines are large enough to drive a small car through in some places.
JT- “Water vapor is the greatest greenhouse gas and no one talks about it.”
Maybe nobody in your circle, scientists talk it about frequently when discussing this topic.
Which means that as we humans heat the atmosphere it can hold much more water, and that explains much of why the hurricanes and other storms have been causing bigger and more frequent flooding events. The atmosphere now holds more than 10% moisture than it did in 1970.
It can hold more and drop more, when the conditions are prime.
Trump blames Zelensky for causing the invasion of the Ukraine.
A Russian Kompromat
“Kompromat is damaging information about a politician, a businessperson, or other public figure, which may be used to create negative publicity, as well as for blackmail”
I find it difficult to wrap my head around the level at which Trump has aligned himself with Putin.
Some quotes that I recently gathered for a different forum:
At a news conference after the Helsinki summit in 2018, President Trump was asked if he believed his own intelligence agencies or Vladimir Putin, an ex-KGB agent, when it came to the allegations of meddling in the elections.
“President Putin says it’s not Russia. I don’t see any reason why it would be,” he replied.
**
Before the 2024 election Trump praised Putin as a “genius” and “pretty savvy” when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, and has boasted he would end the war in a “day”, sparking critics’ fears that if he’s elected again Trump would help Russia achieve a favorable peace deal by cutting off aid to Kyiv. He is clearly on that path. Trump also greenlit Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members who don’t pay enough (his opinion of “enough”) to the alliance.
**
More recently, instead of criticizing Putin for the death of Alexei Navalny, Russia’s leading opposition figure, who the Kremlin once tried to kill with poison, and who died suddenly in an Arctic penal colony, Trump weirdly equated the four criminal prosecutions he faced with Navalny’s fate. “The sudden death of Alexei Navalny has made me more and more aware of what is happening in our country,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.
**
He is just as fond of other dictators:
On Victor Orban, dictator of Hungary during the 2024 debate with Kamala Harris:
“Let me just tell you about world leaders. Viktor Orbán, one of the most respected men—they call him a strongman. He’s a tough person. Smart… They said “why is the whole world blowing up? ‘’. Why is it blowing up? He said because you need Trump back as president. They were afraid of him. China was afraid … North Korea was afraid of him … Look, Viktor Orbán said it. He said the most respected, most feared person is Donald Trump. We had no problems when Trump was president.”
**
On Chinese dictator Xi Jinping at a 2018 Florida fundraiser:
“He’s now president for life, president for life. And he’s great,” Trump said, according to audio of excerpts of Trump’s remarks at a 2018 closed-door fundraiser in Florida. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday”He’s now president for life, president for life. And he’s great,” Trump said, according to audio of excerpts of Trump’s remarks at a closed-door fundraiser in Florida aired by CNN. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday,” Trump said to cheers and applause from supporters.”
**
On North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un:
At a Texas campaign rally in October 2024 as North Korean troops arrived in Russia to aid the faltering invasion of Ukraine, President-elect Donald Trump lavished praise on Kim and Putin saying both dictators are “streetwise” and “at the top of their game.”
**
On Victor Orban, dictator of Hungary during the 2024 debate with Kamala Harris:
“Let me just tell you about world leaders. Viktor Orbán, one of the most respected men—they call him a strongman. He’s a tough person. Smart… They said “why is the whole world blowing up? ‘’. Why is it blowing up? He said because you need Trump back as president. They were afraid of him. China was afraid … North Korea was afraid of him … Look, Viktor Orbán said it. He said the most respected, most feared person is Donald Trump. We had no problems when Trump was president.”
**
On Chinese dictator Xi Jinping at a 2018 Florida fundraiser:
“He’s now president for life, president for life. And he’s great,” Trump said, according to audio of excerpts of Trump’s remarks at a 2018 closed-door fundraiser in Florida. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday. He’s now president for life, president for life. And he’s great,” Trump said, according to audio of excerpts of Trump’s remarks at a closed-door fundraiser in Florida aired by CNN. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday,” Trump said to cheers and applause from supporters.”
**
On North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un:
At a Texas campaign rally in October 2024 as North Korean troops arrived in Russia to aid the faltering invasion of Ukraine, President-elect Donald Trump lavished praise on Kim and Putin saying both dictators are “streetwise” and “at the top of their game.”
**
Just what kind of value structure do these statements represent?
Just what kind of value structure do these statements represent?
“Just recently, instead of criticizing Putin for the death of Alexei Navalny, a leading Russian opposition figure whom the Kremlin once tried to kill with poison and who died suddenly in an Arctic penal colony, Trump strangely equated”
JJHMAN Don’t believe literally what your media tells you, they are biased by their owners. Try to critically evaluate the information, in this particular case based on who benefits from it. The Russian leadership did not see Navalny’s death in the interests of Russia. Perhaps it was a natural death, he was not dangerous, especially in prison. And yes, prison conditions (even in an Arctic penal colony) in Russia are much better than in the USSR and some countries.
And always keep in mind that all countries with competent intelligence services (for example, the USA, Russia, Israel, Great Britain) have developed agents in terrorist and anti-government organizations, are always aware of plans and sometimes have the opportunity to lead these organizations.
If Navalny was not seen as a threat he wouldn’t not have been poisoned, he would not have been in prison. Killing an opposition leader like Navalny also fits a pattern not only of Putin’s behavior in other circumstances but of other dictators. Maybe Stalin comes to mind.
Your last paragraph did not translate well from Russian.
“If Navalny had not been seen as a threat, he would not have been poisoned, he would not be in prison. The murder of an opposition leader like Navalny also suits not only Putin’s behavior”
—-
The poisoning of Navalny, as well as his murder, is not obvious. In my opinion, these facts are unlikely (I admit that you may be right, I just do not know convincing facts and do not see the interest of the authorities), because if they wanted to eliminate him, they would not have missed. In all anti-government organizations, I think there are many agents of the Kremlin special services. Navalny was not at all as popular as Western media portrays him.
Nevertheless, I was interested in his materials on corruption, in most cases I consider them truthful and I agree with Navalny’s feelings. But I am against protests and revolutions, nothing new or bad has happened since Putin came to power, on the contrary, corruption and crime have decreased, citizens of the Russian Federation have never lived so well. After the arrival of “democracy” in the USSR, elections became honest, that is, populists began to win, they returned the money spent on elections a hundredfold, the people and businessmen who came to power quickly got rich, these “honest oligarchs” have blood on their hands up to the elbows, these are the costs of a democratic society. Now there are changes for the better…
“nothing new or bad has happened since Putin came to power, on the contrary, corruption and crime have decreased, citizens of the Russian Federation have never lived so well.”
I am sure the 900,000 dead and disabled soldiers in the “special military operation” would disagree with your ludicrous mischaracterization.
If they weren’t dead, that is.
Lloyd
“I’m sure that 900,000 dead and disabled in the “Special Military Operation” will not agree with your funny mistake.
Hs goal is to gut NATO and crash the Western economy to get revenge for the fall of the Soviet Union, which his boss blames on the West.
Once you realize this everything makes sense. For example, why does he call his web site Truth Social? Truth is a translation of the Russian word pravda, the name of biggest Soviet newspaper. Where do you think he got that idea? The same place he got the idea that Zelenskiy is a dictator who started the war against Russia, and that NATO should be dismantled, and that America, which has been defending free trade since the late 18th century (remember the shores of Tripoli and all that?) would be better off blocking all foreign trade.
It’s time for Europe to stand up and be the superpower of the free world.
Trump is giving Europe the best opportunity of the last 80 years to lead the world. Embrace Ukraine and rebuild the European empire. Fill the shoes of the declining America. Arm Ukraine and Poland tomorrow with cruise missiles and tactical nukes. Build a complete defense industry. Grind out this war with Russia until it completely collapses. Then rebuild Ukraine with it’s resourses. Steal America’s trading partners like Canada, Mexico, Japan, etc.
Americans aren’t going to come to their senses until they hit bottom. More than half of them are poorly educated and mentally ill filled with hate, disinformation and selfishness. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Europe has no choice but to become the adult in the world.
It’s time to lead. All Europe needs is the will. United you stand, divided you fall.
“It’s time for Europe to stand up and become the superpower of the free world.” Bravo! I have no doubt that the Russian Federation will lose the war. The capabilities and economic potentials of the opponents are too incomparable. But unfortunately, you will not be pleased with the victory either. It is highly likely that the targets of the strikes of the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation will be primarily nuclear power plants, military bases, large oil storage sites, large power plants, energy facilities and the like. You will have hundreds of “Chernobyls” these areas will be uninhabitable due to radiation, and hungry citizens will begin to rob and kill each other.
Are you calling for this?
Everything will be fine in South Asia and the Middle East…..
Alexander —
Putin started this war in a misguided attempt to rescue the czarist empire the only European colonial empire to survive (at least in part) the 20th century. Like France’s wars in Indochina and Algeria, this rearguard action is overreach that will only hasten the end of the empire.
The West helped keep the Russian Federation intact after the collapse of the Soviet Union out of fear of the kind of outcome you are threatening (in line with Putin’s other propaganda) or the Russians nuking each other. Let’s see what happens this time around. It’s not clear anyone is in control any more.
Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a military strategy that aims to prevent nuclear war by ensuring that any nuclear attack by one side will result in the destruction of both sides.
Vladimir, it took less than 5 hours for you to respond to my comment. Thank you for confirming my approach is correct. It was 1962 and I was in first grade when we practiced getting under our desk incase of any nuclear war. Your boyfriend bombed Chernobyl last week. He only understands strength. Your disinformation doesn’t scare the educated. Europe has the population, manufacturing, engineering and history. Your country is a bully and needs to learn who it’s picking on.
Checkmate, lose lose. What are you going to do about it ? You’re going to get nukes on your border. You have yourself to blame. You have had nukes pointed at me my entire life. Your boy is a piece of shit, almost a big as your military.
“Alexander –
Putin started this war in a misguided attempt to save the Tsarist Empire, the only European colonial empire that survived (at least partially) the 20th century.”
—–
Alimbed. Not so. Putin did not count on serious resistance when he started the invasion, he had supporters – oligarchs and plids in Ukraine. I myself saw footage of burned Russian trucks near Kiev filled with police plastic shields and batons to disperse demonstrations, some of the forces were police. But things did not go according to plan, the plan had to be changed. Europe and the USA, I think, supported Ukraine after this, counting on protests and revolution in the Russian Federation.
Russia was never a colonial empire, it did not pump taxes from the annexed territories, but on the contrary, developed them, and the local elite became a noble class, the richest courtiers of the emperor had Tatar and East Sea German surnames.
Europe cannot become the world superpower. Italy, Nethelands, Hungary, Austria, Slovakia are ruled by right wing admirers of Trusk. UK has left Europe. Germany is in economic freefall. France is drifting towards le Pen. All have plummetting birth rates and increasingly elderly and infirm populations. Bye bye Europe.
I’m not going to wade into the politics of what led us to where we are today WRT Ukraine and Russia…
…but one thing I don’t see discussed really when it comes to us (the US, at least) wanting to use this conflict to destabilize or weaken Russia. What if we got our wish? What is the end game if Russia were to collapse? To me that’s the scariest outcome. You’d have many thousands of nuclear bombs suddenly up for sale to the highest bidder with possibly no centralized authority in charge of them. I don’t see where we’d have control over who suddenly was in charge of every single one of these weapons. That thought would definitely keep me up at night.
“to us (the US, at least) wanting to use this conflict to destabilize or weaken Russia.”
Nobody needs to weaken or destabilize Russia. Today it is much like a four year old with a bomb. The Russian economy is five times the size of Ukraine’s. Russia has three times the population. With a surprise invasion and enormous advantage in hardware they have not been able to defeat Ukraine in a conventional toe to toe war.
And, no, that’s not comparable to fighting against a guerilla force such as Afghanistan or or Viet Nam.
It’s not complicated. Putin wants to re-establish the tzarist/soviet empire. Ukraine is the biggest chunk of than and he believed that neither the US nor EU would defend it.
Russia has already collapsed and nothing bad resulted except some terrible pain there.
Let’s not make up excuses to model our world on Nevil Chamberlain’s.
HB. Last week I was thinking about how big a deal it is that Europe has 50 countries, whereas China, India and the United States of America are each one country… [for now].
United States of Europe never happened. The European failure to coalesce into one state over the past 500 years leaves it a much more feeble entity than was otherwise possible. I suppose many peoples of the world are very thankful for that, considering the horrid behavior of Europeans over the past 500 years.
The United states of America, India and China happened through centuries of severe violent episodes. Europe had those too, but remained divided. There are probably very thick books delving into this subject.
The prospects for unified European action and policy are not great. And Russia works very hard to keep it from moving in that direction. Russia seems to want to recreate the larger Union of Russian Dominated Republics.
It all works pretty well for China.
I ask- who among these regions controls the oligarchs and tyrants better.
The reality of security from America is literally a marriage with a narcissist. It doesn’t need to be the marriage of your parents in the 50’s. It needs to be an adult relationship of convenience, commitment and necessity. Women have unstood this forever. Think more of something like NATO 2.0 or they can all start learning to speak Russian.
Ukraine as part of Western Europe would be the gift that keeps on giving, farmland, resources and Russian containment. It’s in the interest of the big boys of Western Europe and those bordering the bully empire. The rest will want to be in the game.
We are not living in the America we grew up in
Full Press Conference of Zelenskyy and European leaders about the WAR in Ukraine!
Hickory, I think you will appreciate this. Refreshing and telling. Three years ago I remembered saying to you that Ukraine would be Russia’s Vietnam. I would have never guessed the Idiot would get re-elected. I think Europe gets it and is going to move.
DOGE didn’t realise the Department of Energy manages the USA nuclear stockpile and fired the nuclear experts that do.
Now they are scrambling to rehire them.
“Congress is freaking out because it appears DOGE didn’t really realize NNSA oversees the nuclear stockpile,” another source told CNN.
Republicans apparently just don’t ever learn anything. In 2011 presidential hopeful Rick Perry wanted to eliminate the departments of Commerce, Education and Energy. He also didn’t know that most of the DOE budget was for nuclear weapons.
At the core of Republican ideology is that, as Ronny Ray-Gun once said “Government is not the solution, it is the problem”
And that includes Social Security, the IRS, Medicare, the Forest Service, National Parks, food for hungry children, and so much more.
No heart, no brains, just greed, and lust for power with a large share of meanness.
The article is titled- “Elon Musk’s first month of destroying America …”
Got me to thinking ‘is Elon just Trumps tool, or is it the other way around? Or,
are they both just a tool of the Project 2025 Bro’s Club, or all just a tool of Murdoch?
The voters who put these guys in power are the ultimate tools…
[“Tool” describe a person in a derogatory manner, implying that the person is foolish, inept, or easily manipulated]
A big part of the history of humanity over the last 50,000 years is the
long fight of the common person against the bully.
Who gets the weaponized robots? The answer isn’t up for much debate.
Over here, we now reter to the President as Trusk.
In Saudi Arabia Trump got further instructions from Putin on how to shut down American democracy. He hurried back to Washington to follow his master’S orders. Here are the details:
For those that think moving to New Zealand to hide from the consequences of overshoot is a good idea.
Kicking this over to the non-petroleum side of the discussion. I am no expert on economics, and admit that much of it has never really made sense to me. My science and engineering background makes me want a bit more predictability out of an equation.
The ongoing discussion on debt in the other thread is a case in point. It seems common for people to draw logical parallels between government levels of debt and kitchen table budget logic. And yet, there are a wide range of debt levels around the world. Some better and some worse than the US. It doesn’t appear that there is any special threshold debt:GDP ratio that is or is not OK. Sovereign debt crises have occurred at a range of values, while other countries remain steady. Haiti’s debt:GDP is a tiny fractions of Japan’s, but certainly isn’t an indicator of their relative economys. Perhaps debt:GDP has some utility (?), but the simplistic kitchen table logic seems off.
And for this site in particular, the lack of a direct link to energy in so much of neo-classical economics seems almost like a joke. Labor and capital as the key drivers of production (Cobb-Douglas Production Function)? Really?
Am I right to be skeptical, or can someone point me towards a path to make these topics make more sense?
TH
The connection between debt in energy is that without a growing energy supply debt ( which is money creation) has nothing productive to attach to. So it only devalues currency ie purchasing power ie “inflation”. Now that net energy is falling banks are reluctant to lend because they don’t trust the collateral, which is actually your ability to repay with interest not your house. The reason is productivity is declining because it’s leveraged by energy. Without new debt creation money supply shrinks causing debt defaults.
Yes, and where we are at currently is the commercial banks have no problem lending money to the government via debt purchases. But they are risk adverse and becoming more so when it comes to lending into the economy. So lending on paper looks ok when in actuality it isn’t. If you strip out the lending to the government the overall lending to the actual economy is flat to somewhat down since 2022.
Banks are lending to the biggest and best companies. To do stock buybacks but not so much the real economy.
Eurodollar market or the global monetary system which primarily requires US T-bills never fully recovered from 2008.
Limitless dollar liquidity is no longer limitless.
And central banks don’t provide liquidity. Commercial banks provide liquidity via leveraging up T-bills to create loans.
When these large global systematic banks and dealers banks net out their balance sheets. Bank reserves aren’t used or required in anyway shape or form.
Eurodollar is ledger money. Where loans are just entries on the ledger using T- bills as collateral. The same T-bill might be used by banks to make 15 different loans. You can see the problem here and how under the right circumstances, like slow growth or no growth that money can simply disappear into thin air as loans become unplayable due to too little growth.
Money supply needs energy to grow.
The $300 billion of confiscated Russian money. That $300 billion is just an entry on a banks balance sheet. It’s what happens when you accept currency of any type for hard assets. Saudi’s wealth is also just entries on balance sheets.
All that oil was paid for by someone leveraging up a T-bill to create an entry on the ledger of a bank’s balance sheet somewhere. And since banks are interconnected. The Saudi’s are allowed to move those credits around however they see fit.
The fact that the Ukraine war is likely going to end soon will put downward pressure on oil prices. Oil will likely start flowing more freely out of Russia. Which will take some of the pressure off of Europe. Which means dollars flowing easier.
At least for a little while.
When the US shale exports go back to zero be by the stroke of a pin or because the abundance we are told isn’t really there. We will see what true excess capacity OPEC has. No growth in flow equals no growth in money supply.
And on a global scale what truly matters is, is the Eurodollar in expansion or contraction.
HHH
Love the detail in your post. Most people are not aware that the biggest risk presently is not inflation rather it’s deflation. The price spikes we’re seeing have been explained as the result of helicopter money from the pandemic which might be partially true because without it there would have been lower affordability to absorb higher prices. But in truth I personally think we’re experiencing a supply side shock that is the result of higher energy intensity. So even though oil is range bound at around $70 we are consuming more to produce and deliver it and all the minerals are requiring more to produce as well as refine.
I don’t think anyone will argue that the upper 1% has become materially much richer in the last 20years and the bottom 50% has become poorer. But that is the crux of the problem. The global economy is losing critical mass which is deflationary while simultaneously supplier costs are rising. The result is seen in the social unrest gripping every nation Unfortunately unlike the 1929 depression we’re facing a permanent decline with rampant insolvency. The only tool government has is stimulus but as we’ve seen in China and the US it’s not working.
Thanks for the reply JT.
I see that Steve Keen has released the first two chapters of a new book that looks to be helpful in answering my questions. “Money and Macroeconomics from First Principles, for Elon Musk and Other Engineers”
He certainly supports a stronger link between energy and the economy. He also describes the idea of what he calls “bank originated money and debt” as supported by the Bank of England and the Bundesbank. As I read it, he points to this and some first principles to point out the fallacy of the kitchen table budget logic demanding balanced budgets.
Alexander Khurshudov: The global gas market is still reminiscent of an oriental bazaar
February 24/07:42
Moscow. February 21. Exchange prices for gas in Europe are growing by 1% at Friday’s trades, remaining in the $500-520 per thousand cubic meter range, according to data from the London ICE exchange.
Since Wednesday, they have remained in the $500-520 per thousand cubic meter range. At the same time, exchange gas in Europe was more expensive a few days earlier – last week, for the first time in two years, quotes exceeded $630 per thousand cubic meters.
According to the Association of Gas Infrastructure Operators in Europe (Gas Infrastructure Europe), the level of gas storage reserves in the EU has now dropped below 42%.
Alexander Khurshudov, an expert at the Oil and Gas Information Agency, comments on the situation on the gas markets:
– I have long been planning to analyze price movements on the main gas markets. Because everything is clear with oil: its prices in the world differ insignificantly; huge tankers will deliver oil to almost any corner of the planet. A connected world market has formed, where the difference in prices depends only on the quality (grade) of the oil itself and the cost of transportation.
With gas, things were different until technologies for its liquefaction appeared. The number of LNG tankers is still smaller than oil tankers, their carrying capacity is lower, but this can be fixed. So let’s see how much the prices differ in the largest regional markets of Southeast Asia, the EU and the USA.
Large regional markets
The dynamics of gas prices over the past six years is shown in Fig. 1:
Fig. 1
Let’s make a small digression, because these prices are not quite the same. In the USA (Henry Hub platform) and the EU (TTF platform), these are the prices of the futures exchange markets. They sell surpluses, and the bulk of supplies are made under long-term contracts. It is clear that when there is enough gas for everyone, the surplus is cheap. But when there is little gas (or there is a threat of termination of large supplies), prices can increase several times. This is facilitated by the stock exchange panic: speculators playing for a fall are forced to buy back borrowed and sold gas contracts. It should also be noted that both cheaper pipeline gas and more expensive LNG are sold on these platforms.
Gas is not traded on the exchanges in Southeast Asia, and therefore the data provided represent statistics on real deliveries. This is mainly LNG, since gas prices for the Power of Siberia are not published, and there are no other large gas pipelines there. LNG is more expensive than pipeline gas, with a liquefaction premium of $30-50/1000 m3, and the cost of transportation can vary greatly depending on the distance and demand for gas tankers. Last year, freight of gas carriers cost about $30 thousand per day, this February it fell to $11 thousand per day, and a couple of years ago the price reached $500 thousand. The analysis is further complicated by the fact that some contracts are concluded with delivery to the port of loading, in which case transportation and insurance are paid by the buyer separately and are not included in the price of gas.
But let’s return to Fig. 1. It is clear that the US gas market is currently oversupplied. Usually, prices at Henry Hub vary within $100-150 per 1000 m3, but during the Covid depression of 2020 it was $60-70. For production companies, these are losses. They are saved to some extent by exports and long-term contracts.
A rational solution for the US would be to limit gas production in order to regulate the price at about $150-200 per 1000 m3. But they can’t do it. Although the largest gas fields (Marchellus and Haynessville) have already entered the stage of production decline, it is growing at an exorbitant rate in oil fields. Over the past 8 years, gas production in the Permian formation has tripled and reached (in annual terms) 258 billion m3. For every ton of oil, 930 m3 of gas are already produced there, and the gas factor continues to grow. And since it is prohibited to burn excess gas, last year 40 billion m3 were sold to Mexico at an average price of $60/1000 m3.
The excess gas on the market does not mean that it costs the American consumer pennies. For example, in August, large energy consumers received it at $82 per 1000 m3, office companies – at $383, and municipalities – as much as $826. The main income from gas there is taken by transporters and distribution networks.
The European and Asian markets, on the contrary, are in deficit, they are heavily dependent on gas imports. Asia is the largest importer of LNG, China receives the most (21.3% of world production), and together with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan they consume 59.1% of the world’s LNG.
The prices in these markets fluctuated synchronously, until 2020 they were close, and only in 2022 European prices overtook Asia by as much as $500. This is understandable: the prospect of a reduction in supplies of cheap Russian gas scared stock traders, and Asia reacted to the diversion of part of the LNG to the European market.
In general, we can say that the three large regional markets are interconnected, but we are still far from the common gas market of the planet. Because all LNG supplies in 2023 amounted to 570 billion m3 (400 million tons), and this is only 14.25% of global gas consumption. In addition, LNG contracts differ significantly from pipeline contracts in that the partners are not tied to one pipe. Therefore, the supplier can (with the payment of a fine) redirect its gas to a region where it is temporarily more expensive; such cases have occurred in both Europe and Asia.
By the way, Russia, together with the CIS countries, is also a large regional market, consuming 560 billion m3 annually. It is larger than the European one. But our prices are regulated, and therefore they react weakly to stock market movements. And this is good.
Let’s separately consider the prices of American gas exports.
American elephant in the gas shop
LNG exports appeared in the United States several years ago and in 2023 amounted to 123 billion m3. Among the buyer countries, the Netherlands leads – 16.7 billion (this gas provides trading on the TTF platform), followed by France (14 billion), England (12.7 billion) and Japan (8.8 billion). The dynamics of export prices to the EU over the past 4 years is shown in Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
It is clear that at the beginning of 2021, there was little American LNG in Europe, it went to Asia. However, already in the summer, contract prices rushed up and by the end of the year exceeded $300/1000 m3. The most interesting thing began in February 2022 with the beginning of the Russian operation in Ukraine.
Poland was the first to refuse Russian gas supplies, did not buy it for rubles, and its LNG receiving terminal in Swinoujscie had been underloaded for 6 years. True, the delivery of LNG from Qatar turned out to be expensive (transportation for 13.5 thousand km), and the contract was never signed. But the Poles had two more contracts with American companies. The prices of these contracts were not disclosed, but after the publication of American statistics, it turned out that they were in the range of $625-1031. This provided suppliers with a profitability of 36-60%.
Germany was fed with gas from the Russian SP-1 pipeline for a long time, until it was blown up in September 2022. American LNG deliveries in the following months averaged $600, and then fell in price by about half. Last year, Germany received 500-550 million m3 from the USA monthly; the profitability of these deliveries, according to my rough estimate, exceeds 30%. The profitability of deliveries to other EU countries is somewhat lower.
It can be stated that the sabotage of the Nord Streams brought the Americans good profits and recouped the costs many times over. However, last year, American LNG supplies to Europe decreased; the Southeast Asian market is growing faster than all others. A small conclusion can be made.
Summary
The gas market, unlike the oil market, is not yet sufficiently balanced, and is unlikely to become so in the coming years. Weather surprises and political attacks will repeatedly lead to serious fluctuations in gas prices. Due to lower pumping costs, pipeline communications will retain their advantages on land, while the growing armada of gas carriers in the ocean will smooth out deficits in densely populated regions at higher prices.
If we can put aside the Trump Derangement Syndrome or maybe Musk Derangement Syndrome for a moment we might recognize what is really happening. All civilizations or empire eventually collapse and when they do they follow specific patterns.
One clear pattern is a reduction in government. Rome disbanded their Senate and placed all control in the Executive Branch. Why? Simply because as the Roman economy collapsed they couldn’t afford the pork barrel spending so they became disfunctional fighting for constituent interests. Government spending was slashed and eventually Hadrian built a wall.
The collapse of the Soviet Empire also resulted in smaller government.
It’s no different today the US is in the process of collapse if you doubt it just look at the social state of things. The cause of collapse is a declining economy where the majority of young people feel hopeless are unemployed or underemployed still living with mom and dad and struggle to afford a car. The government has been gaming the citizens by an open border policy that brought in 10-15 million who propped up the economy through government debt and handouts. It was an unsustainable policy which was going to end one way or another.
The attempt to right the system will be in vain as the effects will reduce demand in housing equity and consumer spending. It doesn’t matter how or who. That’s for historians to decide. But be sure what we’re witnessing is the end of the American Empire.
And yes Peak Oil plays very prominently into it.
To follow your logic Trump and Musk are collapsing the government so that the nation will collapse. So does that make them agents of collapse and not individuals with long histories of aggressive selfish motives??
Somehow I can’t fit that together with the Trump lie that Democrats have an open border policy. So bringing in these highly qualified mothers and children-in-arms sent the native born children to the unemployment line, unable to buy a car and “propped up” the economy?.
And how did that increase the debt? Perhaps by forcing Republicans to demand lower taxes and fewer IRS auditors.
I’m sorry but I’m just not following.
JJ
I didn’t mean this to be a test of reading comprehension but to boil it down a little more with bullet points.
1 people are mistaking the symptoms for the cause Trump/Musk are a symptom
2 the cause is declining economic prosperity per capita that led to rejection of the incumbent administration.
3 the cause of economic decline are energy constraints that are preventing growth
4 lack of real economic growth reduces collateral which banks need to make loans which is based on personal productivity (BTW collateral is not a building if it were than only appraisals would be needed for approval. Banks don’t want your property that’s a liability what they want is your hide. That’s why they need your financial history they want to see your ability to repay. They hold your house hostage because homelessness is a powerful incentive.)
5 money is lent into existence so any reduction in lending reduces the money supply which leads to shortages causing defaults (the Eurodollar market is the true global reserve currency which is struggling right now because of a global slowdown)
6 the previous administration papered over the problem here with massive immigration along with war time debt spending that juiced the US consumer based economy making it seem the the US was escaping the global crisis. This was unsustainable and would have ended regardless of who was in office.
7 immigration is not displacing employment but it does require full employment to function. When there aren’t enough jobs to go around the scapegoat is always minority immigrants.
8 I’ll add that the student loan scheme has been very effective in masking youth unemployment and impoverishing a generation of young people.
So in conclusion it doesn’t matter who’s in office but I’ve concluded that you can’t convince anyone of that. Instead people will simply blame whoever they have prejudice against I call it Archie Bunker syndrome. If you’re republican it’s the democrats if you’re democrat it’s republicans if you’re antisemitic then obviously we know who’s the cause of global problems. If racist it’s the white man black man yellow man or orange man etc. Simply put energy is the economy and fossil fuels are our primary energy source and they’re leaving us we’re not leaving them. There will be a lot of kicking and screaming along the way. Welcome to global sandbox.
JT
There are no energy constraints. Oil is far cheaper than it was back in 2012-2014. There is a glut in LNG coming and global coal production is higher than ever.
Any energy constraints are self imposed by idiots who have forced the closure of nuclear power and coal plants before enough wind, solar and backup were built.
It is food inflation that is really hitting people hard particularly the poorer half of the population.
The causes are droughts, fires, floods, soil erosion and aquifer depletion. It is costing many farmers more and more to counter these events. More fertiliser is required to make up for degraded soils. More diesel to pump water from deeper down as aquifer levels drop.
As people pay more for the same food, there is less for other things so economic growth slows.
People are going to realise that soil and fresh water are the most impotent things we are destroying.
JT,
As I write this the spread between FEDs Funds rate and the 10 year bond is 5 basis points. Not the 2’S and the 10’s but the freaking FED’s funds rate.
I know they say they aren’t in any hurry to cut rates here. But I think they will be cutting rates fast and furious in 2025.
Might not be the ultimate collapse of the US. But I think the waters will be rough in 2025.
Feds funds just inverted with the 10 year. In other words the overnight lending rate is above the 10 year bond. In other words there is no spread to pocket for banks.
HHH
Looks like it’s starting to turn. Once again proving that the FED is impotent at controlling markets.
Yeah, interest rate cuts and QE or QT, or the amount of bank reserves doesn’t matter at all.
They want you to believe that if they just get the correct amount of bank reserves and interest rate then everything will be ok.
DOGE should just eliminate the Fed. It’s a total waste of money on the thousand or so PHD’s that work at the Central Bank.
Regardless they will be cutting rates soon. Might even get an emergency rate cut. Not that it will matter but they’ll still do it.
The FED has no real power. It just a confidence game. Since they are doing something. It means we are suppose to remain confident in the economy.
If the FED doesn’t cut. Banks will pile into government debt even more so. Since there is no spread to pocket making loans into the economy. Yes there are still fees that can be made by lending into the economy but those are primarily one time fees. Not the monthly cash flow from making loans.
And of course cutting rates is a no confidence vote. You don’t cut rates unless there is a problem. Long term bond yields heading lower is a growth problem. Lack of demand. Wholesale gasoline prices under $2. List goes on and on.
One other thing I am watching is Bitcoin. Not that Bitcoin matters by itself. But because Bitcoin is loaded with a bunch of leveraged long positions.
When dollars are needed Bitcoin will be one of the first things to be sold in order to get dollars.
Bitcoin is flirting with dropping through horizontal support on the chart. Which if it does it’s going back to $70,000
I agree with that sentiment HHH IF a large number of margin calls get triggered. Both bitcoin and gold will fall sharply.
And the IF condition will only be satisfied if the stockmarket falls sharply. Which is not very likely in my opinion but who knows.
Iron Mike,
Today’s market is different than the markets of yesterday. Everybody is all in on the Mag 7 stocks. It’s all concentrated in 7 different tech stocks.
Literally one companies stock could trigger selling across multiple asset classes. Not just selling but mass liquidation. And yes even oil futures contracts that are in the money could potentially be sold to get dollars. Sending oil prices crashing hard.
“Today is no different, the US is in the process of collapse, if you doubt that just look at the social state of things. The cause of the collapse is a declining economy, in which most young people feel hopeless, unemployed or not working still live with mom and dad and struggle to afford a car.”
—-
I think that part of the impoverishment is due to the redistribution of world product/wealth. I mean, for example, people in Chad (electricity consumption was 50 watts per person per year not long ago) or the Philippines could not afford a refrigerator, TV, car, and now many can. The production of oil, metals, food cannot keep up with the population growth and the improvement of life in the poorest countries.
Not looking good lads. As political turmoil apparently grows around globe………
UN WARNS NATIONS AT CLIMATE SCIENCE MEETING ‘TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE’
Tense negotiations on the timing and content of the UN’s next blockbuster assessment of global warming science opened in China on Monday, with US scientists reportedly absent. The meeting in Hangzhou comes on the heels of the hottest year on record and rising alarm over the pace of warming. Many wealthy countries and developing nations most exposed to climate impacts support an accelerated timetable for the three-part assessment covering physical science, climate impacts, and solutions for reducing greenhouse gas levels. But they face objections from some oil producers and major polluters with rising emissions, such as India and China.
Does it matter when the next IPCC report will be released?
To be more specific:
In spite of the excellent science behind them, are the IPCC reports an adequate source of information to guide decisions given the inevitable political interference by vested interests and reticence or inability of contributors to speak the science plainly?
What more do we really need out of the next IPCC report to make decisions? Climate change is certain, and the fossil fuel driven cause is certain. We also have a very reasonable understanding of the horrific consequences that will result, and know that the most severe consequences will fall upon the children of today and tomorrow.
What more in the next IPCC report will change behavior? There are at least hundreds of millions of people that want the benefits of burning fossil fuels that many of us already have. To quote some of the most recent work by Hansen, “fossil fuels are a marvelous, condensed energy source that raises living standards.” And, the vested interests in the fossil fuel industry, politicians they pay and those they dupe continue their long track record of success in opposing alternatives or effective mitigation paths.
@Lexyvil
1 hour ago (edited)
As Canadians, we stand with EU, NATO and Ukraine. There’s no reason for Russia or ANY country to claim an indpendent country’s lands as their own.
@victoriaespinoza1280
1 hour ago
Macron possesses a greater understanding of the English language and grammar, more than Trump.
@dontbetonit813
1 hour ago
Never did I imagine I would see an American President surrender to Russia without a fight.
In January 2025, Uzbekistan produced 3.87 billion cubic meters of natural gas
February 25/ 11:47
Moscow. In January 2025, Uzbekistan produced 3% less natural gas. The figure was 3.87 billion cubic meters.
Oil production also decreased by 8.7%, to 55.1 thousand tons.
During the reporting period, 101 thousand tons of gas condensate were produced, which is 9.6% less than last year.
In turn, coal production is increasing. Thus, compared to last year, the figure increased by 14.2%, to 408.8 thousand tons.
As Finmarket notes, gas production in the country has been declining for a number of years.
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=252847
UK government orders Apple to provide access to all user data including USA citizens.
And that compares/differentiates with NSA worldwide mandates how? Inquiring minds would like to know…
I don’t think the NSA has ordered companies to decrypt their data.
They just suck in everything they possibly can and see how they can use it later.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14421783/Urgent-warning-iPhone-users-Apple-REMOVES-highest-level-data-security-tool-UK-heres-means-you.html
Apple removes encryption of its data in the UK
I hate that my government is being sold.
Piece by piece.
Mostly by first dibbs.
What will we do when it is gone?
It’s not all being sold. Some is being stolen and a lot more is just being trashed.
Nothing lasts forever.
Federal employees have been living high off the hog for a very long time. It’s time they start feeling economic pain like those who didn’t go into government work. The reality is, Pres. Trump and his advisors are finally providing some accountability to hugely bloated agencies. In spite of whatever the vocal minority huffs and puffs here and elsewhere, the vast majority of Americans agree this is long overdue.
A math teacher friend of mine has spent years struggling with the reality that a large number of people either cannot understand simple math/facts, choose not to try, or are ready to simply ignore and distort facts when they don’t serve their interests or world view. He continues to beat his head against the wall trying to explain simple truths. Certainly 1plus 1 must equal 2, and if only I try hard enough they will get it. Sadly, the pervasiveness of ‘alternate facts’ and propaganda has helped change this perspective.
“Vast majority”? Try that math again
As of November 2024 around 3mm (1.87%) of all workers work for the government. As percentage of the federal budget payroll+ bennies is around 4.3% of total spending. So even if one were to cut that in half it wouldn’t move the needle with respect to the deficit.
Any organization after a while gets bloated and trimming it makes sense, just like Clinton did in ’94 when he signed the “Federal Workforce Restructuring Act”.
The way Trump /Musk go about it is to vilify government workers and throw red meat to their followers, who are most likely to get hurt by the seeming borderline random cuts.
That said, pruning an organization as large as the Federal government probably makes sense if it were done in a thoughtful manner. I would not be surprised if this rough way of cutting sets the table to do equal cuts to medicare/aid, SS, and also the military. Cutting the deficit is a good thing but it looks like the savings are not going there but rather to extend/ expand tax cuts to those who didn’t ask for it and don’t need it, otherwise there would be no need to increase the debt ceiling by 4T.
Rgds
WP
Agreed WP…once again.
Thanks WP, agreed.
I’m guessing that some of your numbers came from the 1/7/25 Pew report on federal workers. Good stuff. In particular, it was a good reminder about how much of the federal workforce is defense related. Almost half of the 3 million civilian workers are directly or indirectly part of the military/defense mission. Add in the 1.3 million military and that’s roughly 2/3 of the 4.3 million total federal employees.
When the IRS is one of the organizations going on the chopping blocks you know that they are not interested in improving things but primarily trying to reduce the cost to those who can afford sophisticated accountants.
This as all in keeping with the Grover Norquist philosophy:
“Our goal is to shrink the government down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub.”
They do not believe the government has any use except to protect private property with a military establishment and police force (and screw the veterans). Everything else is waste including anything that helps the unfortunate.
Trump has hired the richest man in the world to do this and virtually his first act was to literally take food out of the mouths of the poorest children in the world and let it rot on the dock. Evil.
Weekend
It is not just federal government employees.
https://publicpay.ca.gov/Reports/PositionRpts.aspx?rpt=Mayors
What do they do, besides go on expenses paid trips to foreign countries. Like that parasite in Los Angels who was on trip to African country while fires raged through the city. This being after she cut fire department budget despite being told the dangers of not clearing dry areas.
Funny how people who don’t know what the fuck they’re talking about feel emboldened these days to run their mouths.
“The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.”
The Andrew Bird version ain’t too bad neither:
“Well, the best lack all conviction
And the worst keep sharpening their claws”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEFLR2JnMd0
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
The YR4 asteroid now has a 1.5% chance of hitting earth. It’s like 200ish feet long according to Wikipedia. We can just nuke it into smaller pieces right?
We don’t yet know the composition of the rock. If it hits earth it will be on a well defined line near the equator, somewhere between central America and India. Most likely it will a Tunguska scale air burst explosion. 50% chance of it being over water, no damage. If it explodes over a major population centre, most likely over India, it could kill millions.
Only the US would have the resources to launch an interception mission in the time scales available. In the current political environment, would they even bother?
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/china-s-ghost-cities-the-story-behind-the-country-s-many-ghost-towns-of-abandoned-mansions?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us
The are so many things wrong nowadays that what used to be headline disaster news is hardly ever mentioned in the mainstream press.
I used to read quite a bit about the history of the nazis prior to WWII in order to gain some understanding of how they came to power. Some people accused me of sympathizing with them and even supporting them.
Now I see the same thing happening in my own country. The every day working class people with the most to lose are the backbone, the foot soldiers, of the emerging nazi class here in my own country.
I’m not yet saying it’s all over for us as a free society but unless we come to our collective senses soon ……………
“Hain’t we got all the fools in town on our side? And hain’t that a big enough majority in any town?”
( Twain of course)
I personally know dozens of people who fervently believe trump and company can do no wrong. When they’re reduced to living under bridges they will still be blaming the Democrats for any and every problem.
For those who are not Trump diehards, which includes not just democratic voters but also republicans who silently are disgusted by him and his camp, a major overhaul of the parties is in order.
Neither can or should simply rewind to prior platforms or stances. What is relevant for the 2030’s and beyond?
I haven’t heard from anyone just what will be practical, appealing, sane, and forward leaning. A hell a lot of work to be done.
Perhaps we are now going into long term reversal mode, with re-concentration of wealth and power into the hands of a few. And the power of the state isn’t just in control of the swords like in past centuries, but also more and more so the digital, the robotic, the information world, the financial world. The tools under control of the state are hard for most people to fathom.
The US is being exposed as what it is, a full blown oligarchy. The Citizens united Supreme Court decision sealed it’s fate and now you have shadow president Musk. Who needs to actually be president whn you can buy one?
We are already at a level of wealth concentration equal to the Gilded Age. It is staggering to me that this is now being exacerbated by the very working class voters who have suffered and suffer the most.
The Democratic party has to accept some level of blame for the situation. The wealth concentration has continued through their share of government control and they have done a dismal job of messaging, allowing the worst elements of right wing ideology to control the message while they have become as dependent on the big money doners as have the far right and watched the primary system push the Republicans to choose between extremism and being primaried out of office.
Both of your 12:40 and 12:48 comments are great JJHMAN.
The U.S. commanded 26% of the global GDP in 2023, with just 4% of the global population. There’s no excuse for the wealth disparity that exists here, but greed and lust for power has some explanatory weight. I personally don’t care (but could be convinced otherwise) if there is a ceiling of wealth, so long as it can’t buy political power, and so long as the floor is sufficiently high.
Musk came to the US on a on a J-1 visa in 1992 with, according to him, just $2,000 to his name. He became a naturalized citizen of the U.S. in 2002, and became the world’s richest many by January of 2021. Government (progressive) policy, loans, and tax credits had a lot to do with the success of both Tesla and Space-X, yet he hates the U.S. Government? Can’t he just work out his pathology from bad parenting in the way Jim Morrison advocated in The End?
Thanks, Bob.
“according to him”
Elon Musk’s father was at least “very well off” and, by some accounts, gave him at least $200,000 to start Zip2.
Like many supposed self-made men Elon has a hard time remembering how much help he had along the way. It’s probably not a big surprise but the dad, Errol Musk, was an awful person too.
Market taking a hit.
Is reality sinking in?
Really? S&P was 5750 in Nov and 5866 last month. Today 6136. Let me know when it goes below 5866 again…
“Taking a hit” does not infer an all time low. The three big indices down 3% in two days does even if it doubles on Monday.
Good Riddance.
Mitch McConnell Finally Announces He Won’t Run Again.
Get the scum out.
This is in the context of how people are divided and headstrong steadfast in their opinions. On the 10-year anniversary, what color is The Dress: Black/Blue or Gold/White?
https://geoenergymath.com/2025/02/21/subjectivity-and-perception/
What does this imply to grouping of people in their ability to process information? Are they easily manipulated by other factors and by their preconceived notions?
Global warming: Anthropogenic factor or business on CO2
February 21/ 10:51
Nizhnevartovsk. Key issues of global climate change, increase in greenhouse gases, as well as increase in air temperature in the northern regions were discussed by participants of the video conference of the Oil and Gas Information Agency. The event was attended by experts of the Oil and Gas Information Agency and industry representatives.
The main speaker – Honored Geologist of Yugra, PhD in Geology and Mineralogy, expert of the Agency Alexander Shpilman devoted his speech to the key issue of the last decades – warming. To begin with, the expert cited data on the geological history of temperature changes on Earth. According to him, over the past 10 thousand years, the temperature on Earth has changed insignificantly and remained at the same level.
As Alexander Vladimirovich added, the concept of “global warming” appeared in the 80s, when the international group on climate change IPCC noted a systematic increase in temperature, which caused concern. But then the indicator changed by 1 ° C in 120 years.
“If we go back to our time, then, according to ROSHYDROMET, modern warming continues throughout Russia, in general, for the year and in all seasons. The growth rate of the average annual temperature in Russia for the period 1976-2022 was 0.49℃ / 10 years,” the speaker noted.
Table from the speaker’s presentation
To track temperature changes, experts conducted an analysis in three points on Earth – Tyumen, Khanty-Mansiysk and Salekhard. According to weather stations, changes in the average annual temperature over the past 30 years in Tyumen were +1 ° C, in Khanty-Mansiysk +1.2 ° C, but in Salekhard +2.13 ° C.
As the expert explained, over the 30-year period under study, a trend towards an increase in the average annual temperature by 1–2 ° C has been observed.
Table from the speaker’s presentation
“At the same time, the Arctic territories are warming up much faster. This conclusion requires verification at other weather stations located in the Arctic. High correlation of data on average annual temperatures at stations located far from each other indicates the planetary nature of these changes,” added Alexander Vladimirovich.
Also in his report, the expert addressed the study of the concentration and change of CO2 in the atmosphere.
“Carbon dioxide is an integral part of the air mixture, but its concentration outside is about 400-450 ppm (parts per million), which corresponds to 0.04% of the volume concentration. Indoors, the concentration of CO2 reaches about 800 ppm. A dangerous indicator for humans begins at 4000-5000 ppm. And, I also want to remind you that CO2 is a heavy gas, with an atmospheric density of 1.20 kg/m3, it weighs 1.9 kg/m3,” said Alexander Shpilman.
In this regard, ideas arise that this gas, when it settles on the ground, causes a greenhouse effect.
Table from the speaker’s presentation
For example, Alexander Vladimirovich presented data on how much CO2 is produced and consumed by humans on Earth. He noted that all burned fossil fuels emit ~ 46 billion tons of CO2 per year when burned, and all volcanoes – 0.3-0.4 billion tons. 100 times less than the burned hydrocarbon fuel.
“People exhale ~ 2.8 billion tons of CO2 per year. This is 10 times more than volcanoes, but 10 times less than CO2 from burned coal. If we take into account ~ 130 billion mammals on Earth, assume that they exhale only 10 liters of CO2 per hour, then this will amount to 87 m3 or ~ 170 kg per year. In total, all mammals emit 22 billion tons of CO2 per year. There are ~3 trillion trees on Earth. One tree absorbs ~100 kg of CO2 per year. All trees absorb ~300 billion tons of CO2 per year. But this carbon is reversible, trees end their lives and return to carbon in various states, some of it is buried in sediments,” the speaker added.
Alexander Vladimirovich noted that people should take this CO2 cycle into account in nature.
Summarizing his speech, the expert noted that the changes in temperature that are currently observed on the planet cannot be explained by changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Their causes are of a planetary nature, therefore, regardless of whether they are biological or geological, it is imperative to study and develop measures.
The next report within the framework of the conference was presented by the General Director of the State Commission on Mineral Reserves Igor Shpurov on the topic “Using the concept of the clean energy index (CEI) for sustainable development.”
According to Igor Viktorovich, the Clean Energy Index allows you to form a sustainable development strategy, evaluate the efficiency of clean energy production, while taking into account the accumulated experience, risks and threats, as well as all factors influencing technological aspects on the economic and environmental consequences of using various energy sources. Thanks to the ICE, you can analyze the situation on the energy supply market, determine the most economical way to safely and sustainably provide the population with energy in the medium and long term.
“The Clean Energy Index will also contribute to the formation of a sustainable economy and integrated management of natural resources,” the expert added. “In the field of sustainable development, Goal 7 stands out, which talks about ensuring universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. But the question arises: how inexpensive, how clean? And in general, can clean energy be inexpensive? And can inexpensive energy be clean? We proclaim such principles, but we do not really understand what is behind them.”
To calculate the CEI, the experts used artificial intelligence, for this, the ChatGPT 3.0 model was chosen. The calculation uses a database that includes data from the IEA (International Energy Agency), World Bank Energy Data, Global Carbon Atlas, WHO (World Health Organization) and others.
Table from the speaker’s presentation
“The results of the study turned out to be quite interesting. We formed types of fuel by emission volumes from the dirtiest, coal, to the cleanest – solar energy. But when the ICHE was formed, it turned out that coal had the lowest index, and therefore the best one. After it came gas and oil, then hydropower, wind, nuclear and solar. So why is this happening? It’s simple, the cost of coal and all stages of energy production for fossil fuel extraction is much lower. Nuclear energy is a fairly expensive type. At the stage of extraction, disposal of radioactive waste structures, a huge number of costs are generated. Yes, this is a very clean type of energy, but very expensive,” Igor Shpurov emphasized.
According to him, such data indicate only one thing – there is a lack of technology that would make nuclear and wind generation clean energy. In the world, contradictions arise between technological development and good intentions to provide expensive and clean energy.
“That is why today we are talking about the fact that the 21st century is the century of fossil fuels. Because in order to be “clean” and inexpensive, a lot of time, effort and money are needed,” the expert said.
Igor Viktorovich also highlighted issues for further development of the Clean Energy Index. As the expert noted, the indicator evaluates the cost of generating clean energy for a full cycle. In addition to what has already been done, it is necessary to evaluate each direct project for the extraction of minerals. But, unfortunately, today it is not possible to implement this, but it is necessary to work on this issue.
“Some colleagues tried to persuade us to include social aspects in the clean energy index. We believe that this should not be done, because social aspects are still a completely different chain. Although a person who lives without energy, strictly speaking, does not care whether it is “clean” or not. He still needs to get it here and now,” Igor Shpurov summed up.
The moderator of the conference, Agency expert Alexander Khurshudov, in conclusion of his speech clarified when we will be able to manage these energy processes: in the distant future or still not very distant? Igor Viktorovich noted that this issue should be primarily addressed by the state.
“The state should regulate business development in such a way that technologies emerge that could ensure the future. From the figures given in the report, it is obvious to me that we have no developments in this area today. And they will not appear in the near future, especially for those areas that would replace fossil fuels in this regard. And if we had come to these conclusions 10-15 years ago, we would have understood this earlier. Geological exploration for oil and gas was curtailed, and renewable sources did not go, and we essentially stopped developing. This is why we need a clean energy index in order to carry out visible planning and assess our capabilities,” noted Igor Shpurov.
In turn, Alexander Khurshudov wondered why everyone focuses so much on CO2? According to him, methane produces exactly the same greenhouse effect, even stronger. Finally, water vapor produces a greenhouse effect. Why is no one talking about it, maybe because it cannot be traded?
Alexander Shpilman noted the well-known fact that among gases that can cause a greenhouse effect, water vapor is in first place. And, according to experts, it accounts for about 50% of the greenhouse effect.
“But you understand, if you decide to fight life, CO2, organic carbon, and then fight water, then you have decided to destroy life on earth at the root? You can’t fight all this, it is the basis of life for any creature, not just humans. At first, the study of CO2 was a scientific discussion, until they said that they would take and transfer money for it, it immediately became clear that there were many who wanted to “fight” it. And, of course, make money on it. In connection with this, the US President withdrew from the Paris Agreement, refusing to pay,” he specified.
Alexander Vladimirovich returned to Igor Shpurov’s report, which clearly demonstrates the fact that wind and solar generation have not taken root. And it was not surprising for the expert that coal and gas became the cheapest types of energy.
“My opinion is that all the interest in CO2 is not related to concern for nature,” the expert emphasized.
In conclusion of the conference, PhD, Honored Geologist of Russia Valery Karpov emphasized that the problem that was raised during the discussion is understandable to every ordinary person. But some things are still in the fog. He agreed with Igor Shpurov that the transition to environmentally friendly types of fuel is too far away, due to the fact that technologies lag behind needs. The expert noted that coal, oil and gas will remain a priority for a long time.
“If these resources remain a priority for many years, then it is necessary to seriously think about increasing the efficiency of geological exploration. Otherwise, very soon they will also be included in the number of, so to speak, unreliable and uneconomical. Because this process is very capital-intensive and costly. And here we need to look for ways to make them cheaper and increase efficiency,” summed up Valery Karpov.
————-
In this article, several diagrams can be found at the link. I believe that it is stupid to discuss the topic of reducing hydrocarbon consumption – all available ones will be extracted and used sooner or later, regardless of anything. Global warming exists, as does the anthropogenic factor, but how great the influence of the anthropogenic factor is is not exactly known, this is a topic for speculation. Scientists in pursuit of grants or due to their beliefs can be biased. If they close an aluminum smelting plant in Europe, then they will build it in Indonesia, this is wrong. Several decades ago, the fight against freon gases was also discussed. In my opinion, it is more important to fight deforestation and forest fires and immigration. Immigration contributes to overpopulation of the planet, which leads civilization to disaster.
https://www.angi.ru/news/2923125-%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B5%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5%3A%20%D0%90%D0%BD%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D1%84%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%20%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8%20%D0%B1%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%81%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%A1%D0%9E2/
Sad waste of electricity and potential brain power. Sponsored by the fossil fuel industries of Russia.
Keep trying…the campaign may work since humans are pretty gullible.
In some ways Russia will benefit from a hotter earth, and Russia has plenty of money to earn from selling the combustibles, so I understand the motivation.
Better use some of the earned money to get really good at fire fighting, and improving the engineering of projects built in melting permafrost.
Opritov Alexander —
Sorry but your post sounds like gibberish to me.
Opritov
Great information. Water vapor is the greatest greenhouse gas and no one talks about it.
Freon would never have been an issue had it been reclaimed from the beginning. Now we are using flammable and semi flammable refrigerants. Literally propane in new refrigerators. Brilliant!!!
For LNG we often use propane in a pre-cool circuit to cool the incoming gas before it moves along to the mixed refrigerant loop. For mixed refrigerant it’s typically a mix of nitrogen, methane, ethane, and sometimes iso-pentane. I’m talking many, many thousands of tons of refrigerant for a typical liquefaction train. The refrigerant lines are large enough to drive a small car through in some places.
JT- “Water vapor is the greatest greenhouse gas and no one talks about it.”
Maybe nobody in your circle, scientists talk it about frequently when discussing this topic.
Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth’s Greenhouse Effect
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/
“For every degree Celsius that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%”
Which means that as we humans heat the atmosphere it can hold much more water, and that explains much of why the hurricanes and other storms have been causing bigger and more frequent flooding events. The atmosphere now holds more than 10% moisture than it did in 1970.
It can hold more and drop more, when the conditions are prime.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14421387/warren-buffett-stock-market-401k-crash.html
Buffet sitting on 300 billion in CASH and continues to sell off his portfolio.
When there are lots of debt defaults you can buy assets for pennies on the dollar.
https://www.npr.org/2025/02/20/g-s1-49858/reversing-u-s-policy-trump-attacks-zelenskyy-blames-ukraine-for-war-with-russia
Trump blames Zelensky for causing the invasion of the Ukraine.
A Russian Kompromat
“Kompromat is damaging information about a politician, a businessperson, or other public figure, which may be used to create negative publicity, as well as for blackmail”
I find it difficult to wrap my head around the level at which Trump has aligned himself with Putin.
Some quotes that I recently gathered for a different forum:
At a news conference after the Helsinki summit in 2018, President Trump was asked if he believed his own intelligence agencies or Vladimir Putin, an ex-KGB agent, when it came to the allegations of meddling in the elections.
“President Putin says it’s not Russia. I don’t see any reason why it would be,” he replied.
**
Before the 2024 election Trump praised Putin as a “genius” and “pretty savvy” when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, and has boasted he would end the war in a “day”, sparking critics’ fears that if he’s elected again Trump would help Russia achieve a favorable peace deal by cutting off aid to Kyiv. He is clearly on that path. Trump also greenlit Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members who don’t pay enough (his opinion of “enough”) to the alliance.
**
More recently, instead of criticizing Putin for the death of Alexei Navalny, Russia’s leading opposition figure, who the Kremlin once tried to kill with poison, and who died suddenly in an Arctic penal colony, Trump weirdly equated the four criminal prosecutions he faced with Navalny’s fate. “The sudden death of Alexei Navalny has made me more and more aware of what is happening in our country,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.
**
He is just as fond of other dictators:
On Victor Orban, dictator of Hungary during the 2024 debate with Kamala Harris:
“Let me just tell you about world leaders. Viktor Orbán, one of the most respected men—they call him a strongman. He’s a tough person. Smart… They said “why is the whole world blowing up? ‘’. Why is it blowing up? He said because you need Trump back as president. They were afraid of him. China was afraid … North Korea was afraid of him … Look, Viktor Orbán said it. He said the most respected, most feared person is Donald Trump. We had no problems when Trump was president.”
**
On Chinese dictator Xi Jinping at a 2018 Florida fundraiser:
“He’s now president for life, president for life. And he’s great,” Trump said, according to audio of excerpts of Trump’s remarks at a 2018 closed-door fundraiser in Florida. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday”He’s now president for life, president for life. And he’s great,” Trump said, according to audio of excerpts of Trump’s remarks at a closed-door fundraiser in Florida aired by CNN. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday,” Trump said to cheers and applause from supporters.”
**
On North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un:
At a Texas campaign rally in October 2024 as North Korean troops arrived in Russia to aid the faltering invasion of Ukraine, President-elect Donald Trump lavished praise on Kim and Putin saying both dictators are “streetwise” and “at the top of their game.”
**
On Victor Orban, dictator of Hungary during the 2024 debate with Kamala Harris:
“Let me just tell you about world leaders. Viktor Orbán, one of the most respected men—they call him a strongman. He’s a tough person. Smart… They said “why is the whole world blowing up? ‘’. Why is it blowing up? He said because you need Trump back as president. They were afraid of him. China was afraid … North Korea was afraid of him … Look, Viktor Orbán said it. He said the most respected, most feared person is Donald Trump. We had no problems when Trump was president.”
**
On Chinese dictator Xi Jinping at a 2018 Florida fundraiser:
“He’s now president for life, president for life. And he’s great,” Trump said, according to audio of excerpts of Trump’s remarks at a 2018 closed-door fundraiser in Florida. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday. He’s now president for life, president for life. And he’s great,” Trump said, according to audio of excerpts of Trump’s remarks at a closed-door fundraiser in Florida aired by CNN. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday,” Trump said to cheers and applause from supporters.”
**
On North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un:
At a Texas campaign rally in October 2024 as North Korean troops arrived in Russia to aid the faltering invasion of Ukraine, President-elect Donald Trump lavished praise on Kim and Putin saying both dictators are “streetwise” and “at the top of their game.”
**
Just what kind of value structure do these statements represent?
Just what kind of value structure do these statements represent?
Mafia, mob boss values.
See: https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state
“Just recently, instead of criticizing Putin for the death of Alexei Navalny, a leading Russian opposition figure whom the Kremlin once tried to kill with poison and who died suddenly in an Arctic penal colony, Trump strangely equated”
JJHMAN Don’t believe literally what your media tells you, they are biased by their owners. Try to critically evaluate the information, in this particular case based on who benefits from it. The Russian leadership did not see Navalny’s death in the interests of Russia. Perhaps it was a natural death, he was not dangerous, especially in prison. And yes, prison conditions (even in an Arctic penal colony) in Russia are much better than in the USSR and some countries.
And always keep in mind that all countries with competent intelligence services (for example, the USA, Russia, Israel, Great Britain) have developed agents in terrorist and anti-government organizations, are always aware of plans and sometimes have the opportunity to lead these organizations.
If Navalny was not seen as a threat he wouldn’t not have been poisoned, he would not have been in prison. Killing an opposition leader like Navalny also fits a pattern not only of Putin’s behavior in other circumstances but of other dictators. Maybe Stalin comes to mind.
Your last paragraph did not translate well from Russian.
“If Navalny had not been seen as a threat, he would not have been poisoned, he would not be in prison. The murder of an opposition leader like Navalny also suits not only Putin’s behavior”
—-
The poisoning of Navalny, as well as his murder, is not obvious. In my opinion, these facts are unlikely (I admit that you may be right, I just do not know convincing facts and do not see the interest of the authorities), because if they wanted to eliminate him, they would not have missed. In all anti-government organizations, I think there are many agents of the Kremlin special services. Navalny was not at all as popular as Western media portrays him.
Nevertheless, I was interested in his materials on corruption, in most cases I consider them truthful and I agree with Navalny’s feelings. But I am against protests and revolutions, nothing new or bad has happened since Putin came to power, on the contrary, corruption and crime have decreased, citizens of the Russian Federation have never lived so well. After the arrival of “democracy” in the USSR, elections became honest, that is, populists began to win, they returned the money spent on elections a hundredfold, the people and businessmen who came to power quickly got rich, these “honest oligarchs” have blood on their hands up to the elbows, these are the costs of a democratic society. Now there are changes for the better…
“nothing new or bad has happened since Putin came to power, on the contrary, corruption and crime have decreased, citizens of the Russian Federation have never lived so well.”
I am sure the 900,000 dead and disabled soldiers in the “special military operation” would disagree with your ludicrous mischaracterization.
If they weren’t dead, that is.
Lloyd
“I’m sure that 900,000 dead and disabled in the “Special Military Operation” will not agree with your funny mistake.
If they weren’t dead, that’s true.”
——
It’s really a shame that it happened, but I’m sure that the number of dead and disabled is much smaller today. We’ll know the exact number in a few months when/if this madness ends. I want to note that Russian servicemen took part in this voluntarily, unlike the “volunteers” in democratic Ukraine. I hope that in your homeland they won’t use such methods of recruiting for war.
Мосфильм. ТЦК. Одесса…
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rOxlnFvl88o
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wEXjBEbTOVc
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/IeImMrgL1lU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVf7aXfntUM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHCcA4HCDlE
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/MJke77sC0IA
” if they wanted to eliminate him, they would not have missed.”
You assume a competence that has simply not been demonstrated.
Trump is a Russian agent. A Benedict Arnold.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/29/trump-russia-asset-claims-former-kgb-spy-new-book
Hs goal is to gut NATO and crash the Western economy to get revenge for the fall of the Soviet Union, which his boss blames on the West.
Once you realize this everything makes sense. For example, why does he call his web site Truth Social? Truth is a translation of the Russian word pravda, the name of biggest Soviet newspaper. Where do you think he got that idea? The same place he got the idea that Zelenskiy is a dictator who started the war against Russia, and that NATO should be dismantled, and that America, which has been defending free trade since the late 18th century (remember the shores of Tripoli and all that?) would be better off blocking all foreign trade.
It’s time for Europe to stand up and be the superpower of the free world.
Trump is giving Europe the best opportunity of the last 80 years to lead the world. Embrace Ukraine and rebuild the European empire. Fill the shoes of the declining America. Arm Ukraine and Poland tomorrow with cruise missiles and tactical nukes. Build a complete defense industry. Grind out this war with Russia until it completely collapses. Then rebuild Ukraine with it’s resourses. Steal America’s trading partners like Canada, Mexico, Japan, etc.
Americans aren’t going to come to their senses until they hit bottom. More than half of them are poorly educated and mentally ill filled with hate, disinformation and selfishness. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Europe has no choice but to become the adult in the world.
It’s time to lead. All Europe needs is the will. United you stand, divided you fall.
“It’s time for Europe to stand up and become the superpower of the free world.” Bravo! I have no doubt that the Russian Federation will lose the war. The capabilities and economic potentials of the opponents are too incomparable. But unfortunately, you will not be pleased with the victory either. It is highly likely that the targets of the strikes of the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation will be primarily nuclear power plants, military bases, large oil storage sites, large power plants, energy facilities and the like. You will have hundreds of “Chernobyls” these areas will be uninhabitable due to radiation, and hungry citizens will begin to rob and kill each other.
Are you calling for this?
Everything will be fine in South Asia and the Middle East…..
Alexander —
Putin started this war in a misguided attempt to rescue the czarist empire the only European colonial empire to survive (at least in part) the 20th century. Like France’s wars in Indochina and Algeria, this rearguard action is overreach that will only hasten the end of the empire.
The West helped keep the Russian Federation intact after the collapse of the Soviet Union out of fear of the kind of outcome you are threatening (in line with Putin’s other propaganda) or the Russians nuking each other. Let’s see what happens this time around. It’s not clear anyone is in control any more.
Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a military strategy that aims to prevent nuclear war by ensuring that any nuclear attack by one side will result in the destruction of both sides.
Vladimir, it took less than 5 hours for you to respond to my comment. Thank you for confirming my approach is correct. It was 1962 and I was in first grade when we practiced getting under our desk incase of any nuclear war. Your boyfriend bombed Chernobyl last week. He only understands strength. Your disinformation doesn’t scare the educated. Europe has the population, manufacturing, engineering and history. Your country is a bully and needs to learn who it’s picking on.
Checkmate, lose lose. What are you going to do about it ? You’re going to get nukes on your border. You have yourself to blame. You have had nukes pointed at me my entire life. Your boy is a piece of shit, almost a big as your military.
“Alexander –
Putin started this war in a misguided attempt to save the Tsarist Empire, the only European colonial empire that survived (at least partially) the 20th century.”
—–
Alimbed. Not so. Putin did not count on serious resistance when he started the invasion, he had supporters – oligarchs and plids in Ukraine. I myself saw footage of burned Russian trucks near Kiev filled with police plastic shields and batons to disperse demonstrations, some of the forces were police. But things did not go according to plan, the plan had to be changed. Europe and the USA, I think, supported Ukraine after this, counting on protests and revolution in the Russian Federation.
Russia was never a colonial empire, it did not pump taxes from the annexed territories, but on the contrary, developed them, and the local elite became a noble class, the richest courtiers of the emperor had Tatar and East Sea German surnames.
Europe cannot become the world superpower. Italy, Nethelands, Hungary, Austria, Slovakia are ruled by right wing admirers of Trusk. UK has left Europe. Germany is in economic freefall. France is drifting towards le Pen. All have plummetting birth rates and increasingly elderly and infirm populations. Bye bye Europe.
I’m not going to wade into the politics of what led us to where we are today WRT Ukraine and Russia…
…but one thing I don’t see discussed really when it comes to us (the US, at least) wanting to use this conflict to destabilize or weaken Russia. What if we got our wish? What is the end game if Russia were to collapse? To me that’s the scariest outcome. You’d have many thousands of nuclear bombs suddenly up for sale to the highest bidder with possibly no centralized authority in charge of them. I don’t see where we’d have control over who suddenly was in charge of every single one of these weapons. That thought would definitely keep me up at night.
“to us (the US, at least) wanting to use this conflict to destabilize or weaken Russia.”
Nobody needs to weaken or destabilize Russia. Today it is much like a four year old with a bomb. The Russian economy is five times the size of Ukraine’s. Russia has three times the population. With a surprise invasion and enormous advantage in hardware they have not been able to defeat Ukraine in a conventional toe to toe war.
And, no, that’s not comparable to fighting against a guerilla force such as Afghanistan or or Viet Nam.
It’s not complicated. Putin wants to re-establish the tzarist/soviet empire. Ukraine is the biggest chunk of than and he believed that neither the US nor EU would defend it.
Russia has already collapsed and nothing bad resulted except some terrible pain there.
Let’s not make up excuses to model our world on Nevil Chamberlain’s.
HB. Last week I was thinking about how big a deal it is that Europe has 50 countries, whereas China, India and the United States of America are each one country… [for now].
United States of Europe never happened. The European failure to coalesce into one state over the past 500 years leaves it a much more feeble entity than was otherwise possible. I suppose many peoples of the world are very thankful for that, considering the horrid behavior of Europeans over the past 500 years.
The United states of America, India and China happened through centuries of severe violent episodes. Europe had those too, but remained divided. There are probably very thick books delving into this subject.
The prospects for unified European action and policy are not great. And Russia works very hard to keep it from moving in that direction. Russia seems to want to recreate the larger Union of Russian Dominated Republics.
It all works pretty well for China.
I ask- who among these regions controls the oligarchs and tyrants better.
The reality of security from America is literally a marriage with a narcissist. It doesn’t need to be the marriage of your parents in the 50’s. It needs to be an adult relationship of convenience, commitment and necessity. Women have unstood this forever. Think more of something like NATO 2.0 or they can all start learning to speak Russian.
Ukraine as part of Western Europe would be the gift that keeps on giving, farmland, resources and Russian containment. It’s in the interest of the big boys of Western Europe and those bordering the bully empire. The rest will want to be in the game.
We are not living in the America we grew up in
Full Press Conference of Zelenskyy and European leaders about the WAR in Ukraine!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_5BR4Rmm7c
Hickory, I think you will appreciate this. Refreshing and telling. Three years ago I remembered saying to you that Ukraine would be Russia’s Vietnam. I would have never guessed the Idiot would get re-elected. I think Europe gets it and is going to move.
https://www.theverge.com/elon-musk/617427/musk-trump-doge-recession-unemployment
Thank you Dennis, that is excellent.
I wish I could share her conclusion that it is still possible to stop what is in motion.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/politics/government/energy-department-scrambles-to-rehire-nuclear-bomb-experts-fired-in-major-doge-screw-up-reports/ar-AA1z5UL4
DOGE didn’t realise the Department of Energy manages the USA nuclear stockpile and fired the nuclear experts that do.
Now they are scrambling to rehire them.
“Congress is freaking out because it appears DOGE didn’t really realize NNSA oversees the nuclear stockpile,” another source told CNN.
Republicans apparently just don’t ever learn anything. In 2011 presidential hopeful Rick Perry wanted to eliminate the departments of Commerce, Education and Energy. He also didn’t know that most of the DOE budget was for nuclear weapons.
At the core of Republican ideology is that, as Ronny Ray-Gun once said “Government is not the solution, it is the problem”
And that includes Social Security, the IRS, Medicare, the Forest Service, National Parks, food for hungry children, and so much more.
No heart, no brains, just greed, and lust for power with a large share of meanness.
The article is titled- “Elon Musk’s first month of destroying America …”
Got me to thinking ‘is Elon just Trumps tool, or is it the other way around? Or,
are they both just a tool of the Project 2025 Bro’s Club, or all just a tool of Murdoch?
The voters who put these guys in power are the ultimate tools…
[“Tool” describe a person in a derogatory manner, implying that the person is foolish, inept, or easily manipulated]
A big part of the history of humanity over the last 50,000 years is the
long fight of the common person against the bully.
Who gets the weaponized robots? The answer isn’t up for much debate.
Over here, we now reter to the President as Trusk.
In Saudi Arabia Trump got further instructions from Putin on how to shut down American democracy. He hurried back to Washington to follow his master’S orders. Here are the details:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/ensuring-accountability-for-all-agencies/
Trump is going to Moscow to kiss the ring on May 9, the official Soviet end of WWII.
Not exactly what Bush had in mind when he talked about the New World Order. And don’t get me started on Patton.
1965: Malcolm X shot and killed at age 39
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14423841/China-warships-australia-new-zealand.html
For those that think moving to New Zealand to hide from the consequences of overshoot is a good idea.
Kicking this over to the non-petroleum side of the discussion. I am no expert on economics, and admit that much of it has never really made sense to me. My science and engineering background makes me want a bit more predictability out of an equation.
The ongoing discussion on debt in the other thread is a case in point. It seems common for people to draw logical parallels between government levels of debt and kitchen table budget logic. And yet, there are a wide range of debt levels around the world. Some better and some worse than the US. It doesn’t appear that there is any special threshold debt:GDP ratio that is or is not OK. Sovereign debt crises have occurred at a range of values, while other countries remain steady. Haiti’s debt:GDP is a tiny fractions of Japan’s, but certainly isn’t an indicator of their relative economys. Perhaps debt:GDP has some utility (?), but the simplistic kitchen table logic seems off.
And for this site in particular, the lack of a direct link to energy in so much of neo-classical economics seems almost like a joke. Labor and capital as the key drivers of production (Cobb-Douglas Production Function)? Really?
Am I right to be skeptical, or can someone point me towards a path to make these topics make more sense?
TH
The connection between debt in energy is that without a growing energy supply debt ( which is money creation) has nothing productive to attach to. So it only devalues currency ie purchasing power ie “inflation”. Now that net energy is falling banks are reluctant to lend because they don’t trust the collateral, which is actually your ability to repay with interest not your house. The reason is productivity is declining because it’s leveraged by energy. Without new debt creation money supply shrinks causing debt defaults.
Yes, and where we are at currently is the commercial banks have no problem lending money to the government via debt purchases. But they are risk adverse and becoming more so when it comes to lending into the economy. So lending on paper looks ok when in actuality it isn’t. If you strip out the lending to the government the overall lending to the actual economy is flat to somewhat down since 2022.
Banks are lending to the biggest and best companies. To do stock buybacks but not so much the real economy.
Eurodollar market or the global monetary system which primarily requires US T-bills never fully recovered from 2008.
Limitless dollar liquidity is no longer limitless.
And central banks don’t provide liquidity. Commercial banks provide liquidity via leveraging up T-bills to create loans.
When these large global systematic banks and dealers banks net out their balance sheets. Bank reserves aren’t used or required in anyway shape or form.
Eurodollar is ledger money. Where loans are just entries on the ledger using T- bills as collateral. The same T-bill might be used by banks to make 15 different loans. You can see the problem here and how under the right circumstances, like slow growth or no growth that money can simply disappear into thin air as loans become unplayable due to too little growth.
Money supply needs energy to grow.
The $300 billion of confiscated Russian money. That $300 billion is just an entry on a banks balance sheet. It’s what happens when you accept currency of any type for hard assets. Saudi’s wealth is also just entries on balance sheets.
All that oil was paid for by someone leveraging up a T-bill to create an entry on the ledger of a bank’s balance sheet somewhere. And since banks are interconnected. The Saudi’s are allowed to move those credits around however they see fit.
The fact that the Ukraine war is likely going to end soon will put downward pressure on oil prices. Oil will likely start flowing more freely out of Russia. Which will take some of the pressure off of Europe. Which means dollars flowing easier.
At least for a little while.
When the US shale exports go back to zero be by the stroke of a pin or because the abundance we are told isn’t really there. We will see what true excess capacity OPEC has. No growth in flow equals no growth in money supply.
And on a global scale what truly matters is, is the Eurodollar in expansion or contraction.
HHH
Love the detail in your post. Most people are not aware that the biggest risk presently is not inflation rather it’s deflation. The price spikes we’re seeing have been explained as the result of helicopter money from the pandemic which might be partially true because without it there would have been lower affordability to absorb higher prices. But in truth I personally think we’re experiencing a supply side shock that is the result of higher energy intensity. So even though oil is range bound at around $70 we are consuming more to produce and deliver it and all the minerals are requiring more to produce as well as refine.
I don’t think anyone will argue that the upper 1% has become materially much richer in the last 20years and the bottom 50% has become poorer. But that is the crux of the problem. The global economy is losing critical mass which is deflationary while simultaneously supplier costs are rising. The result is seen in the social unrest gripping every nation Unfortunately unlike the 1929 depression we’re facing a permanent decline with rampant insolvency. The only tool government has is stimulus but as we’ve seen in China and the US it’s not working.
Thanks for the reply JT.
I see that Steve Keen has released the first two chapters of a new book that looks to be helpful in answering my questions. “Money and Macroeconomics from First Principles, for Elon Musk and Other Engineers”
https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/money-and-macroeconomics-from-first
He certainly supports a stronger link between energy and the economy. He also describes the idea of what he calls “bank originated money and debt” as supported by the Bank of England and the Bundesbank. As I read it, he points to this and some first principles to point out the fallacy of the kitchen table budget logic demanding balanced budgets.
Alexander Khurshudov: The global gas market is still reminiscent of an oriental bazaar
February 24/07:42
Moscow. February 21. Exchange prices for gas in Europe are growing by 1% at Friday’s trades, remaining in the $500-520 per thousand cubic meter range, according to data from the London ICE exchange.
Since Wednesday, they have remained in the $500-520 per thousand cubic meter range. At the same time, exchange gas in Europe was more expensive a few days earlier – last week, for the first time in two years, quotes exceeded $630 per thousand cubic meters.
According to the Association of Gas Infrastructure Operators in Europe (Gas Infrastructure Europe), the level of gas storage reserves in the EU has now dropped below 42%.
Alexander Khurshudov, an expert at the Oil and Gas Information Agency, comments on the situation on the gas markets:
– I have long been planning to analyze price movements on the main gas markets. Because everything is clear with oil: its prices in the world differ insignificantly; huge tankers will deliver oil to almost any corner of the planet. A connected world market has formed, where the difference in prices depends only on the quality (grade) of the oil itself and the cost of transportation.
With gas, things were different until technologies for its liquefaction appeared. The number of LNG tankers is still smaller than oil tankers, their carrying capacity is lower, but this can be fixed. So let’s see how much the prices differ in the largest regional markets of Southeast Asia, the EU and the USA.
Large regional markets
The dynamics of gas prices over the past six years is shown in Fig. 1:
Fig. 1
Let’s make a small digression, because these prices are not quite the same. In the USA (Henry Hub platform) and the EU (TTF platform), these are the prices of the futures exchange markets. They sell surpluses, and the bulk of supplies are made under long-term contracts. It is clear that when there is enough gas for everyone, the surplus is cheap. But when there is little gas (or there is a threat of termination of large supplies), prices can increase several times. This is facilitated by the stock exchange panic: speculators playing for a fall are forced to buy back borrowed and sold gas contracts. It should also be noted that both cheaper pipeline gas and more expensive LNG are sold on these platforms.
Gas is not traded on the exchanges in Southeast Asia, and therefore the data provided represent statistics on real deliveries. This is mainly LNG, since gas prices for the Power of Siberia are not published, and there are no other large gas pipelines there. LNG is more expensive than pipeline gas, with a liquefaction premium of $30-50/1000 m3, and the cost of transportation can vary greatly depending on the distance and demand for gas tankers. Last year, freight of gas carriers cost about $30 thousand per day, this February it fell to $11 thousand per day, and a couple of years ago the price reached $500 thousand. The analysis is further complicated by the fact that some contracts are concluded with delivery to the port of loading, in which case transportation and insurance are paid by the buyer separately and are not included in the price of gas.
But let’s return to Fig. 1. It is clear that the US gas market is currently oversupplied. Usually, prices at Henry Hub vary within $100-150 per 1000 m3, but during the Covid depression of 2020 it was $60-70. For production companies, these are losses. They are saved to some extent by exports and long-term contracts.
A rational solution for the US would be to limit gas production in order to regulate the price at about $150-200 per 1000 m3. But they can’t do it. Although the largest gas fields (Marchellus and Haynessville) have already entered the stage of production decline, it is growing at an exorbitant rate in oil fields. Over the past 8 years, gas production in the Permian formation has tripled and reached (in annual terms) 258 billion m3. For every ton of oil, 930 m3 of gas are already produced there, and the gas factor continues to grow. And since it is prohibited to burn excess gas, last year 40 billion m3 were sold to Mexico at an average price of $60/1000 m3.
The excess gas on the market does not mean that it costs the American consumer pennies. For example, in August, large energy consumers received it at $82 per 1000 m3, office companies – at $383, and municipalities – as much as $826. The main income from gas there is taken by transporters and distribution networks.
The European and Asian markets, on the contrary, are in deficit, they are heavily dependent on gas imports. Asia is the largest importer of LNG, China receives the most (21.3% of world production), and together with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan they consume 59.1% of the world’s LNG.
The prices in these markets fluctuated synchronously, until 2020 they were close, and only in 2022 European prices overtook Asia by as much as $500. This is understandable: the prospect of a reduction in supplies of cheap Russian gas scared stock traders, and Asia reacted to the diversion of part of the LNG to the European market.
In general, we can say that the three large regional markets are interconnected, but we are still far from the common gas market of the planet. Because all LNG supplies in 2023 amounted to 570 billion m3 (400 million tons), and this is only 14.25% of global gas consumption. In addition, LNG contracts differ significantly from pipeline contracts in that the partners are not tied to one pipe. Therefore, the supplier can (with the payment of a fine) redirect its gas to a region where it is temporarily more expensive; such cases have occurred in both Europe and Asia.
By the way, Russia, together with the CIS countries, is also a large regional market, consuming 560 billion m3 annually. It is larger than the European one. But our prices are regulated, and therefore they react weakly to stock market movements. And this is good.
Let’s separately consider the prices of American gas exports.
American elephant in the gas shop
LNG exports appeared in the United States several years ago and in 2023 amounted to 123 billion m3. Among the buyer countries, the Netherlands leads – 16.7 billion (this gas provides trading on the TTF platform), followed by France (14 billion), England (12.7 billion) and Japan (8.8 billion). The dynamics of export prices to the EU over the past 4 years is shown in Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
It is clear that at the beginning of 2021, there was little American LNG in Europe, it went to Asia. However, already in the summer, contract prices rushed up and by the end of the year exceeded $300/1000 m3. The most interesting thing began in February 2022 with the beginning of the Russian operation in Ukraine.
Poland was the first to refuse Russian gas supplies, did not buy it for rubles, and its LNG receiving terminal in Swinoujscie had been underloaded for 6 years. True, the delivery of LNG from Qatar turned out to be expensive (transportation for 13.5 thousand km), and the contract was never signed. But the Poles had two more contracts with American companies. The prices of these contracts were not disclosed, but after the publication of American statistics, it turned out that they were in the range of $625-1031. This provided suppliers with a profitability of 36-60%.
Germany was fed with gas from the Russian SP-1 pipeline for a long time, until it was blown up in September 2022. American LNG deliveries in the following months averaged $600, and then fell in price by about half. Last year, Germany received 500-550 million m3 from the USA monthly; the profitability of these deliveries, according to my rough estimate, exceeds 30%. The profitability of deliveries to other EU countries is somewhat lower.
It can be stated that the sabotage of the Nord Streams brought the Americans good profits and recouped the costs many times over. However, last year, American LNG supplies to Europe decreased; the Southeast Asian market is growing faster than all others. A small conclusion can be made.
Summary
The gas market, unlike the oil market, is not yet sufficiently balanced, and is unlikely to become so in the coming years. Weather surprises and political attacks will repeatedly lead to serious fluctuations in gas prices. Due to lower pumping costs, pipeline communications will retain their advantages on land, while the growing armada of gas carriers in the ocean will smooth out deficits in densely populated regions at higher prices.
link, there are two tables:https://www.angi.ru/news/2923163-%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%20%D0%A5%D1%83%D1%80%D1%88%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%3A%20%D0%9C%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BA%20%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B0%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%B5%D1%82%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%80/
If we can put aside the Trump Derangement Syndrome or maybe Musk Derangement Syndrome for a moment we might recognize what is really happening. All civilizations or empire eventually collapse and when they do they follow specific patterns.
One clear pattern is a reduction in government. Rome disbanded their Senate and placed all control in the Executive Branch. Why? Simply because as the Roman economy collapsed they couldn’t afford the pork barrel spending so they became disfunctional fighting for constituent interests. Government spending was slashed and eventually Hadrian built a wall.
The collapse of the Soviet Empire also resulted in smaller government.
It’s no different today the US is in the process of collapse if you doubt it just look at the social state of things. The cause of collapse is a declining economy where the majority of young people feel hopeless are unemployed or underemployed still living with mom and dad and struggle to afford a car. The government has been gaming the citizens by an open border policy that brought in 10-15 million who propped up the economy through government debt and handouts. It was an unsustainable policy which was going to end one way or another.
The attempt to right the system will be in vain as the effects will reduce demand in housing equity and consumer spending. It doesn’t matter how or who. That’s for historians to decide. But be sure what we’re witnessing is the end of the American Empire.
And yes Peak Oil plays very prominently into it.
To follow your logic Trump and Musk are collapsing the government so that the nation will collapse. So does that make them agents of collapse and not individuals with long histories of aggressive selfish motives??
Somehow I can’t fit that together with the Trump lie that Democrats have an open border policy. So bringing in these highly qualified mothers and children-in-arms sent the native born children to the unemployment line, unable to buy a car and “propped up” the economy?.
And how did that increase the debt? Perhaps by forcing Republicans to demand lower taxes and fewer IRS auditors.
I’m sorry but I’m just not following.
JJ
I didn’t mean this to be a test of reading comprehension but to boil it down a little more with bullet points.
1 people are mistaking the symptoms for the cause Trump/Musk are a symptom
2 the cause is declining economic prosperity per capita that led to rejection of the incumbent administration.
3 the cause of economic decline are energy constraints that are preventing growth
4 lack of real economic growth reduces collateral which banks need to make loans which is based on personal productivity (BTW collateral is not a building if it were than only appraisals would be needed for approval. Banks don’t want your property that’s a liability what they want is your hide. That’s why they need your financial history they want to see your ability to repay. They hold your house hostage because homelessness is a powerful incentive.)
5 money is lent into existence so any reduction in lending reduces the money supply which leads to shortages causing defaults (the Eurodollar market is the true global reserve currency which is struggling right now because of a global slowdown)
6 the previous administration papered over the problem here with massive immigration along with war time debt spending that juiced the US consumer based economy making it seem the the US was escaping the global crisis. This was unsustainable and would have ended regardless of who was in office.
7 immigration is not displacing employment but it does require full employment to function. When there aren’t enough jobs to go around the scapegoat is always minority immigrants.
8 I’ll add that the student loan scheme has been very effective in masking youth unemployment and impoverishing a generation of young people.
So in conclusion it doesn’t matter who’s in office but I’ve concluded that you can’t convince anyone of that. Instead people will simply blame whoever they have prejudice against I call it Archie Bunker syndrome. If you’re republican it’s the democrats if you’re democrat it’s republicans if you’re antisemitic then obviously we know who’s the cause of global problems. If racist it’s the white man black man yellow man or orange man etc. Simply put energy is the economy and fossil fuels are our primary energy source and they’re leaving us we’re not leaving them. There will be a lot of kicking and screaming along the way. Welcome to global sandbox.
JT
There are no energy constraints. Oil is far cheaper than it was back in 2012-2014. There is a glut in LNG coming and global coal production is higher than ever.
Any energy constraints are self imposed by idiots who have forced the closure of nuclear power and coal plants before enough wind, solar and backup were built.
It is food inflation that is really hitting people hard particularly the poorer half of the population.
The causes are droughts, fires, floods, soil erosion and aquifer depletion. It is costing many farmers more and more to counter these events. More fertiliser is required to make up for degraded soils. More diesel to pump water from deeper down as aquifer levels drop.
As people pay more for the same food, there is less for other things so economic growth slows.
https://www.unesco.org/en/articles/unesco-raises-global-alarm-rapid-degradation-soils
https://www.undrr.org/understanding-disaster-risk/terminology/hips/en0005
People are going to realise that soil and fresh water are the most impotent things we are destroying.
JT,
As I write this the spread between FEDs Funds rate and the 10 year bond is 5 basis points. Not the 2’S and the 10’s but the freaking FED’s funds rate.
I know they say they aren’t in any hurry to cut rates here. But I think they will be cutting rates fast and furious in 2025.
Might not be the ultimate collapse of the US. But I think the waters will be rough in 2025.
Feds funds just inverted with the 10 year. In other words the overnight lending rate is above the 10 year bond. In other words there is no spread to pocket for banks.
HHH
Looks like it’s starting to turn. Once again proving that the FED is impotent at controlling markets.
Yeah, interest rate cuts and QE or QT, or the amount of bank reserves doesn’t matter at all.
They want you to believe that if they just get the correct amount of bank reserves and interest rate then everything will be ok.
DOGE should just eliminate the Fed. It’s a total waste of money on the thousand or so PHD’s that work at the Central Bank.
Regardless they will be cutting rates soon. Might even get an emergency rate cut. Not that it will matter but they’ll still do it.
The FED has no real power. It just a confidence game. Since they are doing something. It means we are suppose to remain confident in the economy.
If the FED doesn’t cut. Banks will pile into government debt even more so. Since there is no spread to pocket making loans into the economy. Yes there are still fees that can be made by lending into the economy but those are primarily one time fees. Not the monthly cash flow from making loans.
And of course cutting rates is a no confidence vote. You don’t cut rates unless there is a problem. Long term bond yields heading lower is a growth problem. Lack of demand. Wholesale gasoline prices under $2. List goes on and on.
One other thing I am watching is Bitcoin. Not that Bitcoin matters by itself. But because Bitcoin is loaded with a bunch of leveraged long positions.
When dollars are needed Bitcoin will be one of the first things to be sold in order to get dollars.
Bitcoin is flirting with dropping through horizontal support on the chart. Which if it does it’s going back to $70,000
I agree with that sentiment HHH IF a large number of margin calls get triggered. Both bitcoin and gold will fall sharply.
And the IF condition will only be satisfied if the stockmarket falls sharply. Which is not very likely in my opinion but who knows.
Iron Mike,
Today’s market is different than the markets of yesterday. Everybody is all in on the Mag 7 stocks. It’s all concentrated in 7 different tech stocks.
Literally one companies stock could trigger selling across multiple asset classes. Not just selling but mass liquidation. And yes even oil futures contracts that are in the money could potentially be sold to get dollars. Sending oil prices crashing hard.
“Today is no different, the US is in the process of collapse, if you doubt that just look at the social state of things. The cause of the collapse is a declining economy, in which most young people feel hopeless, unemployed or not working still live with mom and dad and struggle to afford a car.”
—-
I think that part of the impoverishment is due to the redistribution of world product/wealth. I mean, for example, people in Chad (electricity consumption was 50 watts per person per year not long ago) or the Philippines could not afford a refrigerator, TV, car, and now many can. The production of oil, metals, food cannot keep up with the population growth and the improvement of life in the poorest countries.
Not looking good lads. As political turmoil apparently grows around globe………
UN WARNS NATIONS AT CLIMATE SCIENCE MEETING ‘TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE’
Tense negotiations on the timing and content of the UN’s next blockbuster assessment of global warming science opened in China on Monday, with US scientists reportedly absent. The meeting in Hangzhou comes on the heels of the hottest year on record and rising alarm over the pace of warming. Many wealthy countries and developing nations most exposed to climate impacts support an accelerated timetable for the three-part assessment covering physical science, climate impacts, and solutions for reducing greenhouse gas levels. But they face objections from some oil producers and major polluters with rising emissions, such as India and China.
https://phys.org/news/2025-02-nations-climate-science-side.html
Sincere question here Doug.
Does it matter when the next IPCC report will be released?
To be more specific:
In spite of the excellent science behind them, are the IPCC reports an adequate source of information to guide decisions given the inevitable political interference by vested interests and reticence or inability of contributors to speak the science plainly?
What more do we really need out of the next IPCC report to make decisions? Climate change is certain, and the fossil fuel driven cause is certain. We also have a very reasonable understanding of the horrific consequences that will result, and know that the most severe consequences will fall upon the children of today and tomorrow.
What more in the next IPCC report will change behavior? There are at least hundreds of millions of people that want the benefits of burning fossil fuels that many of us already have. To quote some of the most recent work by Hansen, “fossil fuels are a marvelous, condensed energy source that raises living standards.” And, the vested interests in the fossil fuel industry, politicians they pay and those they dupe continue their long track record of success in opposing alternatives or effective mitigation paths.
Interesting takedown of Musk.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/author-upcoming-elon-musk-biography-040538098.html
A longer piece below seems over the top, get unhinged towards the end.
https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-truth-about-musk-from-his-biographer
Another interesting piece with views supposedly held by Musk, and certainly by Vance.
https://newrepublic.com/article/183971/jd-vance-weird-terrifying-techno-authoritarian-ideas
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/02/25/tesla-board-elon-musk-what-did-you-do-last-week-provide-5-bullets-of-what-you-accomplished-last-week-within-5-days/
D.C. Police Seek Arrest of Republican Congressman Over Alleged Assault of 27-Year-Old Woman
https://www.mediaite.com/crime/
d-c-police-seek-arrest-of-republican-congressman-over-alleged-assault-of-27-year-old-woman/
Normal for our repug friends.
At least it was only a assault- hope no kidding from our repug friends
Macron interrupts Trump, clarifies how Europe gave money to Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYFfeIIHqX0
From the comments:
@Lexyvil
1 hour ago (edited)
As Canadians, we stand with EU, NATO and Ukraine. There’s no reason for Russia or ANY country to claim an indpendent country’s lands as their own.
@victoriaespinoza1280
1 hour ago
Macron possesses a greater understanding of the English language and grammar, more than Trump.
@dontbetonit813
1 hour ago
Never did I imagine I would see an American President surrender to Russia without a fight.
In January 2025, Uzbekistan produced 3.87 billion cubic meters of natural gas
February 25/ 11:47
Moscow. In January 2025, Uzbekistan produced 3% less natural gas. The figure was 3.87 billion cubic meters.
Oil production also decreased by 8.7%, to 55.1 thousand tons.
During the reporting period, 101 thousand tons of gas condensate were produced, which is 9.6% less than last year.
In turn, coal production is increasing. Thus, compared to last year, the figure increased by 14.2%, to 408.8 thousand tons.
As Finmarket notes, gas production in the country has been declining for a number of years.
New posts are up
https://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-update-february-2025/
and
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-february-26-2025/