The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for November 2024 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is October 2024 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In the OPEC charts below the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.
Output for August 2024 was revised higher by 4 kb/d and September 2024 output was revised higher by 25 kb/d compared to last month’s report. OPEC 12 output increased by 466 kb/d with most of the increase from Libya as the political situation improved(556 kb/d.) Iraq decreased by 66 kb/d, Iran by 68 kb/d, and Nigeria had a small 35 kb/d increase. Other OPEC members had small increases or decreases of 14 kb/d or less.
The chart above shows output from the Big 4 OPEC producers that are subject to output quotas (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait.) After the pandemic, Big 4 average output peaked in 2022 at a centered 12 month average (CTMA) of 20849 kb/d, crude output has been cut by 2441 kb/d relative to the 2022 CTMA peak to 18408 kb/d. The Big 4 may have roughly 2440 kb/d of spare capacity when World demand calls for an increase in output.
Most of the increase in the Other 8 OPEC nations (those not part of the Big 4) came from Iran and Venezuela, with the remaining 6 nations that were subject to quotas having relatively flat output over the 37 month period covered in the chart above.
OPEC continues to expect strong demand for World liquids output in 2024 and 2025 and I continue to believe this is a wishcast of what they would prefer World demand to be. EIA and IEA forecasts are more realistic at about 1 to 1.2 Mb/d for 2024 to 2025 average.
OPEC expects moderate growth in US tight oil output of about 300 kb/d in 2024 and 2025 with most of the increase from the Permian basin.
My guess for US tight oil output in 2024 us a bit higher than the OPEC estimate and in 2025 it is lower.
Thank you Dennis. Word from the Trump camp is that Trump will re-impose sanctions on Iran. Thoughts on how that might affect OPEC supply?
Paoil
This is one time that I hope T is successful. If he can curb Iranian exports that will allow the other OPEC countries to start to increase their production.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-fbi-justice-department-iran-83cff84a7d65901a058ad6f41a564bdb
Don’t forget there was a hit put out on Trump by Iran recently.
Trump is not the kind of guy who is going to let that pass…..
I would expect more than just sanctions
PAOil,
I expect it would decrease OPEC Supply unless other OPEC members increase output to make up the difference, they have about 2400 kb/d of output they are holding back, Iran is producing about 3400 kb/d so as long as Iran’s output doesn’t fall below 1000 Kb/d (Trunp got Iran’s output down to about 2000 kb/d before the pandemic so that might be a lower limit). In short, there will probably be little affect on overall OPEC supply from Trump imposing sanctions on Iran. It will have about as much affect as the drill baby drill policy, that is very little.