A Guest Post by Islandboy
The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on April 24th, with data for February 2019. The table above shows the percentage contribution of the main fuel sources to two decimal places for the last two months and the year 2019 to date.
In February, the absolute amount of electricity generated fell back below the levels seen during the fall of 2018 in October and November. This has been the pattern for the period covered by the chart, January 2013 to date, with January being the month with the highest electricity demand during the winter. Coal and Natural Gas between them, fueled 60.79% of US electricity generation in February, with the contribution from Nuclear edging up very slightly. Below is a table showing the absolute amounts generated by the major sources in gigawatt hours (GWh) for the last two months and the year to date.
The contribution from Natural Gas was up at 35.25%, from 33.25% in January, despite the amount generated falling from 118,935 GWh to 110,428 GWh. Generation fueled by coal decreased from 101,019 GWh to 80,008 GWh resulting in the percentage contribution falling from 28.24% to 25.54%. The amount of electricity generated by Nuclear plants decreased from 73,701 GWh to 64,715 GWh with the resulting contribution actually increasing very slightly from 20.60% to 20.66% in February. The amount generated by Conventional Hydroelectric decreased from 24,544 GWh in January to 22,031 GWh in February with resulting contribution actually increasing to 7.03% as opposed to 6.86% in January. The amount generated by Wind increased from 22,493 GWh to 24,825 GWh with the resulting contribution rising from 6.29% to 7.92% in February. The estimated total solar output rose from 5,590 GWh to 5,999 GWh with the resulting contribution rising from 1.56% to 1.91%. The contribution of zero carbon or carbon neutral sources rose from 37.41% in January to 38.23% in February.
The graph below shows the absolute monthly production from the various sources as well as the total amount generated (right axis).
The chart below shows the total monthly generation at utility scale facilities by year versus the contribution from solar. The left hand scale is for the total generation, while the right hand scale is for solar output and has been deliberately set to exaggerate the solar output as a means of assessing it’s potential to make a meaningful contribution to the midsummer peak. In February 2019 the output from solar at 5,999 GWh, was 2.61 times what it was four years ago in February 2015.
The chart below shows the total monthly generation at utility scale facilities by year versus the combined contribution from wind and solar. The left hand scale is for the total generation, while the right hand scale is for combined wind and solar output and has been deliberately set to exaggerate the combined output of solar and wind as a means of assessing the potential of the combination to make a meaningful contribution to the year round total.
The chart below shows the percentage contributions of the various sources to the capacity additions for February 2019. In February Natural Gas contributed 1.54% of new capacity, with 25.64% of new capacity coming from Solar and Wind contributing 69.46%. Batteries contributed 2.95% of new capacity with Petroleum Liquids making up the remaining 0.42%. Natural Gas, Solar and Wind made up 96.63% of new capacity in February. Natural gas and renewables have made up more than 95% of capacity added each month since at least January 2017.
The only capacity added that was not fueled by Natural Gas, Wind or Solar was a 2.8 MW Internal Combustion Engine driven generator fueled by distillate fuel oil in the City of Carlyle, Illinois. There was a single battery installation, a 19.8 MW facility in New Jersey. The 10.3 MW of Natural Gas fueled capacity added, consisted of a 5.6 MW combustion turbine and a 1 MW steam turbine at a co-generation plant at the North Carolina State University, in addition to a 3.7 MW fuel cell in CT. In February 2019 the total added capacity reported was 670.9 MW, compared to the 329.8 MW added in February 2018.
The chart below shows the monthly capacity retirements for February 2019. In February the retirements reported were a 1.5 MW generator, driven by a Natural Gas fueled internal combustion engine at the University of Redlands Energy Center in California, two 830 MW Conventional Steam Coal units at the FirstEnergy owned Bruce Mansfield plant in Pennsylvania, two Conventional Steam Coal units amounting to 272 MW at the E W Brown plant owned by Kentucky Utilities Co. and a 11 MW Conventional Steam Coal unit at an independent power producer in Pennsylvania.
Following the posting of the November 2018 edition of this report, a request was made for a graph that better represented the scale of the capacity additions and retirements. Below is a chart for monthly net additions/retirements showing the data for February 2019, followed by a chart showing the net additions/retirements year to date.
It remains to be seen whether the 2019 trend of capacity additions will continue to mirror 2018 with the first two months of 2019 being very similar to the first two months of 2018. The prognosis appears not to favor a reversion to the scenario that resulted in Natural Gas fired capacity making up roughly three fifths (61.6%) of new capacity in 2018.The warning signs are coming from California where the following linked articles tell the tale:
March 28, 2018 – It’s the No. 1 Power Source, but Natural Gas Faces Headwinds
Nov. 9, 2018 – Storage will replace 3 California gas plants as PG&E nabs approval for world’s largest batteries
Feb. 12, 2019 – LA scraps plan to rebuild 3 gas plants, moves towards 100% renewable energy
April 25, 2019 – Southern California Edison moves forward with storage projects instead of gas peaker plant
Outside of California, there are other warning signs as shown in the following articles:
April 25, 2019 – Indiana regulators reject Vectren gas plant over stranded asset concerns
April 29, 2019 – New York allocates $280M for energy storage projects as state targets 3GW by 2030
April 29, 2019 – 900 MW Invenergy natural gas plant faces uncertain future in ISO NE
At the beginning of this week a story caught my attention at the web site reneweconomy.com.au that, has subsequently also been covered by utilitydive.com. The story concerns an report from the web site of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
IEEFA U.S.: April is shaping up to be momentous in transition from coal to renewables
The future of the U.S. electricity generation industry may have arrived, and it is not good news for struggling coal-fired generating plants.
This month, for the first time ever, the renewable energy sector (hydro, biomass, wind, solar and geothermal) is projected to generate more electricity than coal-fired plants, which totals about 240 gigawatts (GW) of still-operating capacity. According to data published this month in the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook, renewables may even trump coal through the month of May as well.
As the chart below indicates, the EIA sees renewable generation topping coal-fired output sporadically this year, and again in 2020. The estimates in the EIA outlook show renewable energy generating 2,322 and 2,271 thousand megawatt-hours (MWh/day) per day in April and May, respectively. This would top coal’s expected output of 1,997 and 2,239 thousand MWh/day during the same two months.
It will be another 7 weeks or so before the data to support these projections is released so, we look forward to seeing if this projection proves to be accurate, at least in the short term.
Below is a table of the top ten states in order of coal consumption for electricity production for February 2019 and the year before for comparison
2018 capacity additions s/b 2019 capacity additions.
Thanks for catching that. I’ll fix it when I get back to my computer. I’ve also caught a something else.
NAOM, at least I can see that you actually read the post! 🙂 I made three changes. How many of them did you catch?
My memory ain’t that detailed 🙂 I do read but mostly look at the pretty pictures as they give me the information I want, quickly and clearly. You will probably remember me for agreeing with someone’s request for a better illustration of some of the data. A line or bar makes things much clearer that a jumble of numbers and it is easy to spot a trend such as non-hydro renewables increasing 100% over the time of a chart.
NAOM
I do read but mostly look at the pretty pictures as they give me the information I want, quickly and clearly.
LOL! I like them too, that’s why I like creating charts from spreadsheets. For next months edition I am going to replace the entire second paragraph with a table like the one below. I seriously doubt anybody ever reads that paragraph anyway and the table has all the underlying data for the past two months for the chart of absolute values. That table combined with the one showing the percentage contributions says everything that is in that paragraph, except maybe what’s in the first couple sentences.
Summary first then the numbers laid out to be easily accessible, good.
NAOM
I’ve made the changes to the top post so that the entire paragraph under the second table is now redundant. What do you think?
Yes, much clearer. You can see at a glance what has changed and by how much. It also leves me wondering what other non-hydro renewables are included as the total decreases while wind and solar increase, a notable drop in the total.
NAOM
Yes, that was quite curious. Turns out it was an error in my main spreadsheet. Since the EIA does not have a separate column for wind in Table 1.1. Net Generation by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors), I had to reference a cell in Table 1.1.A. Net Generation from Renewable Sources: Total (All Sectors). Somehow about six months ago that reference went down by one instead of up by one so the cell was now getting data from cell B83 instead of B85. For six months the figure for wind that I’ve been using is actually two months out! It’s fixed now so I will update the table and the charts for this month to reflect the corrections.
Many thanks! Always helps to have more eyes looking at the data. I don’t know how long I might have gone on without catching that.
“given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow”
Linus’s Law
NAOM
Both the tables have been updated with the corrected data and the three charts that were affected have also been updated. Thanks again!
De nada.
Meanwhile, in the ROW things are not so good.
China’s power industry calls for hundreds of new coal power plants by 2030
The largest power producers in China have asked the government to allow for the development of between 300 and 500 new coal power plants by 2030 in a move that could single-handedly jeopardize global climate change targets.
It comes as coal-fired power capacity additions in 2018 slowed to their lowest rate since 2004, both in China and globally, though carbon emissions from the sector continued to rise, according to the International Energy Agency.
In its review of the government’s five-year-plan, China Electricity Council (CEC) – the influential industry body representing China’s power industry – recommended adopting a ‘cap’ for coal power capacity by 2030 — but the 1300GW limit proposed is 290GW higher than current capacity. The target is for the country’s coal-fired capacity to continue to grow until peaking in 2030.
The cap would enable China to build 2 large coal power stations a month for the next 12 years, and grow the country’s capacity by an amount nearly twice the size of Europe’s total coal capacity.
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/03/28/china-new-coal-plants-2030-climate/
With hundreds of coal power plants being built and to be built in China along with hundreds to be built in other countries over the next dozen years, the result will not be good. I guess the song below about says it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jP_vynIOxOU
If you look at the last section of the top post, where there are links to seven articles, spanning from March 2018 to the end of April 2019, you will see that not just coal but, NG is being affected by renewables in the US. Renewable sources like wind and solar are now able to offer power at lower prices than any other source when the resource is available, that is, the wind is blowing or the sun is shining. The intermittency is only a problem because, firstly we as a civilization, have left the idea of making hay when the sun shines, far behind us and it is now expected that we should do whatever we want, whenever we want. Secondly storage of electricity is nowhere near the scale it needs to be, to be able to run our civilization in the same way we have done with FF energy.
Notwithstanding that, renewable energy is now threatening the viability of fuel based plants in the nation who’s administration is among the most supportive of FF on the planet. One of the linked stories from April 25 in the top post, is headlined “Indiana regulators reject Vectren gas plant over stranded asset concerns”. This is an idea that Tony Seba has floated and is mentioning more in his more recent presentations. You can build all the power plants you want, if consumers can get electricity for less than you are able to generate it for, they are not going to buy it from you. To repeat the quote from our discussion at the end of the previous thread, “any new investment is already obsolete”.
I sense this is happening already in my neck of the woods. There is a brand new NG fired CCGT power plant scheduled to come on-line next month and switch the island’s dependence from imports of heavy fuel oil to imports of LNG. At the same time there is a new 50 MW solar farm scheduled to come on line in the same time frame. The PPA for the solar farm has a price of US 8 cents per kWh, a price that I don’t think the CCGT can match. This price was negotiated a couple of years ago, using the costs that existed back then and my understanding is that the owners of the facility were able to re-negotiate the size of the plant to 50 MW from 37 MW because the funds allocated for the project were able to build the increased amount by the time the project was implemented. That means the owners of the plant will be able to sell more power than they had originally negotiated for and I haven’t heard anything about a change in price for the power sold. Sweet deal for the owners if that is the case!
What are the prices going to be for the next solar farm built on the island? What about the one after that and the one after that? At some point in the not too distant future, solar plus enough storage to make it “dispatchable” for all intents and purposes, is going to cost way less than any FF option in my neck of the woods and probably most places that don’t experience less than say, ten hours of daylight at any time during the year. That is the point that Seba is making and barring some extreme black swan events, those price points are within striking distance if not already here.
Have you read the piece from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis? Here’s the closing paragraph:
I rest my case. The unfortunate thing is that “China’s power industry” does not seem to be aware of the impending disruption. There is also something that I can only describe as momentum, continuing to move in the same direction and sat the same speed until some opposing force brings it to a halt.
“you look at the last section of the top post, where there are links to seven articles, spanning from March 2018 to the end of April 2019, you will see that not just coal but, NG is being affected by renewables in the US.”
Actually, you have it backward Islandboy. The great fracked production of natural gas stalled the production of renewables. Wind growth is now linear. Solar is still small. The most dangerous GHG is now leaking out, heating the ponds, melting the Arctic, releasing the natural GHG’s. The bridge fuel turned out to be just another human devised trap.
Was not talking about the US or Europe. Was very clearly talking about the ROW where most of the people live.
Asia and soon Africa are making the US and Europe irrelevant. If the US and Europe were to cut all emissions by 2030 it would be balanced by the growth of emissions elsewhere. Since that scenario will not happen, emissions will continue to grow.
Yes, I know renewable energy (wind and solar) are growing and someday they may even provide enough power to cover all the electric demand.
But let’s be realistic, building renewables here and building more FF burning systems there is not doing anywhere near enough.
We have probably already crossed some tipping points. This next decade or two will push more tipping points if we even continue at half the CO2/methane/N2O/ozone output. Even the governments are starting to use the term climate emergency, though they have little comprehension of what that means. This is serious, ecological collapse is imminent, food collapse is imminent. Yet hardly anyone can even look realistically at what is going on right now. They all look to the future as if there is lots of time left to implement all those pesky annoying things we need to do. That just reduces urgency.
Always Look At the Bright Side of Life
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M
The reason I brought up the situation in “my neck of the woods” is that, the point at which recent and impending investment in FF generation might be closer than you think. The new solar farm here appears to have taken less than six months to build. Current Google Maps satellite views show undisturbed land at the site of the project. Another twelve or so similar plants would take care of the entirety of the island’s mid day electricity demand. The private sector is forging ahead, with new rooftop installations popping up on a regular basis.
The image below is a satellite picture of an area roughly 2 miles north to south and 3 miles east to west, including the area where I live. The unusual icons mark solar installations with the red ones being schools, the white ones residences and the others commercial. This is as of about six months ago and as I said they keep popping up. what is going to stop a lot more people from taking the plunge when prices for solar go lower? How will anybody who has to buy fuel compete in say five or ten years time? Will the utility have recovered the investment in their yet to be commissioned CCGT plant by the time people start abandoning their service on a large scale?
Below is a zoomed in image of the lower central part of the image above. In the upper section, right of center is a relatively new installation at a commercial bank. The one in the middle is a furniture retailer. The one in the lower left is a 500 kW installation at a seafood wholesaler, whose project was covered in the following newspaper article from May 2015, which includes a drone shot of the roof.
Rainforest invests US$1m in solar energy
They have since expanded their solar assets to include a facility at their western branch in Monetgo Bay and this story from April 2018 covers the expansion of that facility.
Rainforest adds more solar capacity
Bold mine.
Fishmarket – lots of refrigeration. Same here, big refrigerator users such as butchers, greengrocers and ice cream makers are going solar in a big way.
NAOM
Freezers work very nicely for storage of “coolth”. During periods of high solar power production, just turn down the thermostat.
I like it best when you can consume a cone of coolth to cool yourself down, chocolate chip works well.
NAOM
Pistachio!
“what is going to stop a lot more people from taking the plunge when prices for solar go lower? How will anybody who has to buy fuel compete in say five or ten years time”
Solar is below grid parity now, yet after an initial flurry of activity a few years ago it has slowed in my area now. Now it is less expensive.
One would think that PV would be installed as fast as possible but it just is not happening.
Once the subsidies for fossil fuel are removed, it might accelerate again.
Once local codes stop inhibiting installation, it might accelerate again.
This explains some of what I try to convey.
Shale Gas: The Technological Gamble That Should Not Have Been Taken by Anthony Ingraffea
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGfIjCG-zB4&t=84s
So how much did shale oil do to prevent better transportation systems being in place now and the near future. A decade? Two?
I don’t think we can run this into overtime just because we kept screwing up.
Here is a good example for solar PV gain, I think it’s number four or five in the US as far as PV installations. It also has about 50% cloud cover so is not sunny California and it uses very little coal.
Nat gas is the primary energy source in the state. Solar only has to increase by bout 60 times to displace natural gas and motor fuel. Maybe only forty or fifty times with increased efficiency of heat pumps for heating and extra insulation in buildings.
Still that is a big leap and solar is only being added at about 350 MW per year for the last three years*. That means over 300 years to displace fossil fuels there with PV.
https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=NJ#tabs-1
*https://www.seia.org/state-solar-policy/new-jersey-solar
Point taken. NG has delayed some adoption of renewables and somewhat less so EVs. However I should point that this is sort of a race to the bottom, who can get closer to zero? That is a race only renewables can win and by raising (lowering?) the stakes NG has ensured that renewables are now the lowest cost option. When NG was more costly than coal, renewables would still have to go lower than coal after going lower than NG. By going cheaper than coal, NG became the last man standing and you know what happens when you kill the last man standing?
GAME OVER!
Not sure how you leapt to game over. Maybe because I live in a country where it was decided during the Obama era that we would have an energy mix (brown, not green). Now I live in an even more dystopian country that is leaning backward toward more fossil fuels in that mix. Lately I heard about offshore drilling along the Atlantic coast again.
The game is afoot and it is a stinky one.
No matter how hard your president and his administration lean, it seems they are having little effect on planned coal plant closures. See:
PacifiCorp taps 4 units for potential early retirement in updated coal analysis
and
Federal judge blocks potential path to viability for 2.3 GW Navajo coal plant
These are just two cases where plant closures are happening because they are no longer economically viable. How are Trump and his bunch of “free market” merry men going to fix that?
Yeah, two coal plants around here have been closed for years now. One was replaced with natural gas and the other is now an oil peaker. Still have not torn down the coal plant though, so it may come back to life.
It’s not up to the president. However, coal exports are on the rise.
When one considers the coal use by countries like India and China, it is important to know that their internal stance is not monolithic. Some within want to have a clean, secure green energy future, and the idea is talked up big. And they are doing big things on the solar and wind front. Some would say hitting the ball far above their rankings would have suggested.
On the other hand, there are large forces within the government and industry who have a huge stake in the coal industry- from mining, port and rail services, powerplant operators, etc. They would like to keep building up for the next thirty years. And exporters like Australia are very eager to supply.
And planners in these countries want clean air, but also realize they need to come with large electricity production gains to make up for the coming huge shortfall in crude oil over the next 10-20 yrs. Transport, agriculture and other industry will be shifting to electric machinery on a large scale.
And you have varying interests between local government and the ‘federal’ government, often at odds.
These countries don’t have the huge internal resource of nat gas to fall back on, like the USA. And their government officials know they must keep the ball rolling, or be ousted.
https://indiapowerreview.com/recalculating-indias-2030-thermal-coal-import-needs-268-million-100-million-or-zero-tons/
Not to mention politicians who want to buy votes by providing quick electricity or who want the backhander from the power/coal industry.
NAOM
intermittency is only a problem because, firstly we as a civilization, have left the idea of making hay when the sun shines, far behind us
Should be:
“intermittency isn’t a difficult to solve problem yet, there is only a long term possibility that it will be a problem, and it likely won’t actually turn out to be a problem.”
From a marketing point of view, intermittency is a strategic advantage for solar and wind, because it breaks the existing system. Intermittent, distributedly sourced, dirt cheap energy undermines the “base load” business model of utilities.
Nuclear couldn’t beat coal because it is compatible to coal, so coal caught up by getting cheaper. Renewables are incompatible and disruptive, so they win.
“If you aren’t breaking things, you aren’t moving fast enough.”
– Mark Zuckerberg
I can see how a distributed model is disruptive to the conventional utility setup. And I can see how peak solar power disrupts an industry that depends on peaker plant profits. But I’m not clear on the idea that intermittency gives renewables an advantage.
Could you expand on that?
The fact that a huge solar ramp up happens every morning is pretty much a nightmare for traditional thermal plants. For decades, utilities have relied on the fact that the power plants with the steadiest output are the cheapest, but renewables are cheaper and hopelessly intermittent. This just breaks everything.
Intermittency isn’t good for solar. But it is bad for the existing fleet. And since solar competes against the existing fleet, you have a sort of “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” situation.
Added to this is the fact that solar is free at the margin — all the costs are in the initial installation. This makes it impossible for traditional plants to compete on price, even if “total system cost” (whatever that means) for solar is higher. If the electricity costs less than the fuel, it is in the interest of any thermal plant to shut down, but renewables keep going even if the price of electricity is zero to win market share.
So plants built for extremely efficient operation with 100% capacity factor at the cost of flexibility suffer when solar comes on line. These include coal, nuclear and older gas plants.
Because solar peaks during the day, when prices are highest, it also attacks the peaker plants, flexible gas plants which charge higher prices. The base load runs 24/7, and the peakers come in when demand goes up. But daytime demand is now lower that baseload output in many cases, shutting down the peakers and part of the baseload, or forcing the baseload plants to offer negative prices. This is why Germany exports so much coal fired electricity at rock bottom prices, or even negative prices.
What is happening in America now is that the old “base load” plants which ran 24/7 are being replaced by combined cycle gas and wind. The gas plants used to only be used for peak production, especially for air conditioning, the utilities’ best friend. Solar is wrecking the prices at the times of day where utilities make all their profits. The baseload plants (including gas plants) which ran fine for decades are being shut down and new combined cycle gas capacity is being built to compensate.They can shut down if there is an oversupply of renewables.
The best part is solar is not competing with thermal electricity as much as it is competing with oil (through EV’s). Anything with a battery does not care so much if the source is intermittent.
Tesla sued by family of Apple employee killed in crash
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/tesla-sued-by-family-of-apple-employee-killed-in-crash-20190502-p51j8k.html
Did anyone listen to Elon in his earlier talks? His biggest fear for mankind is AI. He warned everyone for years.
So he didn’t listen to himself? Good logic.
‘Autopilot’ in a car. I personally cant stand these ridiculous technologies in new cars. They force in someways, humans to use their brain/logic and awareness less and less.
Most things in moderation is good, too much of something is usually harmful. And i believe that is where we are with certain technologies (i guess one can extrapolate fully to industrial civilization and even agriculture).
They are crippling us from an evolutionary viewpoint in someways, since we are relying on them heavily. If there was to be partial or full civilization collapse, i believe humans that rely heavily on tech will probably go extinct. Just my worthless rant.
There was a paper published by a geneticist claiming peak human intelligence was ancient Greece. And has been declining since. I’ll see if I can find it if people are interested in reading it.
“So he didn’t listen to himself? Good logic.”
Ha, there are those that see the beast and think they know enough to tame it.
Although, back in reality land, “mechanical” failures in US cars cause about 100,000 accidents every year on the US. I say”mechanical” because the plethora of computers and sensors that run every car now could be a big cause too. One that is not often checked out at accident scenes or afterward.
I have had two vehicles that just suddenly shut off, could happen anywhere, anytime. Both were electronic. One I repaired and the other was too difficult to diagnose, went to scrap.
I have also had brake system failures, tire failures, steering failures. Been lucky so far, no major crashes.
As far as I am concerned autopilot systems are scary but will probably become the norm and eventually be much safer than human drivers. Still, everything EV and Elon is under a microscope and will be magnified by people and the media.
Do we need autopilot in cars? No. But we need to talk on phones, make texts, put on makeup, read newspapers, and be distracted in many other ways while driving a two ton vehicle at speed. We need to be drunk, drugged and tired too. And we often need to just be angry and stupid in them.
We are quite happy killing off millions and injuring untold numbers of people with cars each year worldwide, plus the illness and deaths from the pollution they produce. Yet at the same time, one murder or other small incident seems to capture the minds and hearts of people to exclusion of all else.
We are also quite happy to have over 33,000 deaths from firearms and another 75,000 injuries by firearm each year in the US. But we need to have firearms to defend ourselves against ????, oh yes, targets, deer and birds.
Let our pollution end the lives of many millions of people and make many more than that ill and miserable. That is mostly OK too, or we might stop doing it.
Yet let a computer error kill one person in the world and it’s just horrifying.
Meanwhile the computers are sitting in our weapons ready to kill thousands and millions, even a whole planet. But that too is OK or we might change that.
AI is not the problem, that small lump of gray matter behind the eyes of every human is the most dangerous problem. Apparently the lump can be easily manipulated and convinced of almost anything. Everything is justifiable. 🙂
BTW what if AI driven cars end up reducing accidents and death by 30 percent. Would be good then?
Probably not, since it takes away the last bastion of pseudo-freedom from a lot of people. That rite of passage into modern adulthood would cease to exist.
Well at least the lawnmower and bicycle is still AI free, for now. 🙂
+100!
That can be read as: plus 100, exclamation point.
or as:
Positive integer 100, factorial, in which case it corresponds to:
9.332622e+157
either way it can be taken as an endorsement of GF’s comment!
Cheers! 😉
Robot lawn mowers are very popular in Germany.
Yep! When I was in Germany I would often go down to a local park and watch them mow. This was in a farming community where horses, cows, sheep, goats and chickens were also quite common.
Oh Mike, the mechanical electronic machine age will not last long enough to cause evolution. That would involve thousands of years and is constantly changing anyway so can’t really be a selection process. Myself, I think the machines are being adapted to the human psyche, so sales increase. In other words, people are selecting which machine types survive. Remember typewriters and dial telephones? Remember push lawnmowers and old cash registers. Cars without power assisted steering and brakes, hand cranked windows? Most of us remember life without GPS mapping. Ice boxes?
Now global warming and climate change, that will be evolutionary. Some think it will be a major extinction. Either way it changes everything.
You want to end civilization, turn off the GPS system and the cell phone system. 🙂
in practical terms with smaller changes about 20 generations – 500 years
of course one cannot rule out the re-emergence of little known changes
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-47950258
fascinating …..
There was a paper published by a geneticist claiming peak human intelligence was ancient Greece. And has been declining since. I’ll see if I can find it if people are interested in reading it
First, you’d have to agree on a definition of intelligence. By my own definition any thirteen year old who has access to, and knows how to use an internet search engine, is multiple orders of magnitude more intelligent than any ancient Greek!
You can check out the work of this modern day Greek 😉
https://www.hdc.ed.ac.uk/dr-lambros-malafouris
Lambros Malafouris PhD (Cambridge, Darwin College) is Johnson Research and Teaching Fellow in Creativity, Cognition and Material Culture at Keble College, and the Institute of Archaeology, University of Oxford. He was Balzan Research Associate in Cognitive Archaeology at the McDonald Institute, University of Cambridge between 2005-2008. His research interests lie broadly in the archaeology of mind and the philosophy of material culture. His recent publications include How Things Shape the Mind: A Theory of Material Engagement (MIT Press, 2013), The Cognitive Life of Things: Recasting the boundaries of the mind (with Colin Renfrew, 2010), Material Agency: Towards a non- anthropocentric approach (with Carl Knappett, 2008) and The Sapient Mind: Archaeology meets neuroscience (with Colin Renfrew and Chris Frith, 2008).
Here is a video from his site that might get you started down a similar path:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=66&v=vHG0Mj8tYI8
Thinking with Things – Tacye Phillipson
>There was a paper published by a geneticist claiming peak human intelligence was ancient Greece.
Jared Diamond, who spent a lot of time in the New Guinea Highlands, where the first white man set foot in the 1920s, says his impression is that the Highlanders are significantly smarter than the rest of the world, although their tech is hopelessly primitive. His theory is that agriculture selects for good immune systems instead of native intelligence, so human intelligence has been declining with the spread of agriculture.
Diamond makes a strong case—-
As far as the extinction of homo sapiens (if it happens), AG is the major cause.
Without it, overpopulation would not be possible.
Maybe, maybe not!
This looks to be the source of that information which, BTW, I’m not quite ready to buy!
https://www.davidwolfe.com/human-intelligence-declining/
A LEADING GENETICIST SAYS HUMAN INTELLIGENCE IS SLOWLY DECLINING
Look, there’s no easy way to put it. Simply said, it is a great time to be dumb. Everything from pop music to popular films arguably cater to an increasingly unintelligent populous that has lost 14 IQ points on average since the Victorian Era. Practically speaking, that is the difference between someone with average intelligence and one who is cognitively impaired.
Should anyone wish to read it, this is the full paper:
Our Fragile Intellect
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/cc63/c5e0bb322baa850f362b38be6c7835a483ce.pdf
Gerald R. Crabtree
David Korn Professor of Pathology and Developmental Biology
Beckman Center, B211
279 Campus Drive, Stanford University crabtree@stanford.edu
Trends Genet. 2013 Jan;29(1):1-3. doi: 10.1016/j.tig.2012.10.002. Epub 2012 Nov 12.
On the other hand there are numerous studies that dispute these claims. Such as this one:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25987509
One Century of Global IQ Gains: A Formal Meta-Analysis of the Flynn Effect (1909-2013).
Abstract
The Flynn effect (rising intelligence test performance in the general population over time and generations) varies enigmatically across countries and intelligence domains; its substantive meaning and causes remain elusive. This first formal meta-analysis on the topic revealed worldwide IQ gains across more than one century (1909-2013), based on 271 independent samples, totaling almost 4 million participants, from 31 countries. Key findings include that IQ gains vary according to domain (estimated 0.41, 0.30, 0.28, and 0.21 IQ points annually for fluid, spatial, full-scale, and crystallized IQ test performance, respectively), are stronger for adults than children, and have decreased in more recent decades. Altogether, these findings narrow down proposed theories and candidate factors presumably accounting for the Flynn effect. Factors associated with life history speed seem mainly responsible for the Flynn effect’s general trajectory, whereas favorable social multiplier effects and effects related to economic prosperity appear to be responsible for observed differences of the Flynn effect across intelligence domains.
For those that don’t want to read the papers you can watch this TED talk by James Flynn himself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vpqilhW9uI
Why our IQ levels are higher than our grandparents’ | James Flynn
Disclaimer: I am aware that IQ test have a somewhat checkered reputation as a reliable measure of intelligence. That is a separate discussion.
Cheers!
Hi Fred,
I’m no expert, by any means, but I know a little bit about so called intelligence. It really needs to be considered as two distinct questions , rather than one.
Consider two kids, identical twins, who hypothetically get equally good medical care, equally good diet, etc, but one going into an intellectually impoverished home, the other into a home with lots of books, well educated parents, a group of peers who take school seriously, etc.
They should, from the genetic pov, have about equal IQ scores. But in reality……. the one from the enriched environment scores higher. I took IQ tests in high school that had math symbols in them I had never even SEEN before… even though I did get a respectable score, lol. I would have done better if I had been in tougher math classes, no question. And I couldn’t answer some questions in the languages portion because the questions referenced publications and books I had at that time never even heard of…… although I got a respectable score on that part too.
Bottom line, two computers with the same identical chips and operating systems perform differently…. if they have differences in their stored data, and different programs installed, you expect different output, when you use them.
I can’t prove that the NATIVE intelligence of our species is declining but I personally know more than just a FEW people who would be dead rather than alive today, if it weren’t for the fact that modern societies provide for stupid people in ways that allow them to survive and even thrive and have lots of kids sometimes.
My great grand parents had to THINK and ORGANIZE and PLAN their work, and their lives, in order to stay alive, and stick to their plans, changing them as necessary of course.
I have some stupid cousins today who would literally starve or freeze to death if left to their own resources, or get themselves killed trying to steal some food, etc, under more primitive meaning NATURAL circumstances, the sort of circumstances we experienced as we evolved into modern humans. We look after them, collectively, as family and community or society. The family itself contributes, the preacher and the church contribute, and the community in the form of government provides an additional safety net. So except for the occasional fatal overdose, or stupid accident, or death due to alcoholism or diabetes, etc, these cousins are alive and in some cases, they are PARENTS as well.
It doesn’t bother me to admit that I have such relatives, because EVERYBODY ELSE has some like this too, whether they admit it, or not. Lots of people don’t even KNOW their relatives, even their aunts and uncles and first cousins, these days, never mind their TRULY EXTENDED family.
There’s no doubt in my mind that the argument that modern society is at least POTENTIALLY contributing to a decline in the average intelligence of our species is a SOUND argument.
Of course this decline in the NATIVE or POTENTIAL intelligence of an individual or group of individuals can be offset by education.
Even a simple minded person these days here in the USA can usually read, at least a little. There’s no doubt in my mind that my maternal grandfather could have been an engineer or medical doctor. He could think as clearly and efficiently as anybody I ever knew, so long as the topic was one he had knowledge of, such as raising crops, or training animals, or managing his finances or supervising hired help. ( He taught himself enough arithmetic he could compute the price of a truck load of mixed produce in his head as fast as most people could do it with a pocket calculator. ) But he never had a chance to go to school…… so what score would you expect him to have made on an iq test?
I can’t prove it, but I’m perfectly willing to believe that the average NATIVE intelligence of our species is declining.
The flip side of the dummies surviving and breeding argument is that the individuals who are OBVIOUSLY among the very most intelligent of all of us, as indicated by their having very fine educations, etc, seem to have VERY FEW children, on average.
Among all my acquaintances, there is a VERY strong correlation with higher education and very few kids, and a fairly strong correlation between little education and more kids.
Yeah, what you are saying pretty much boils down to the old nature vs nurture story. I have no argument with any of that.
In terms of biological evolution I don’t know of any serious biologist, who thinks that humans have stopped evolving or who are unaware that intelligence is a highly complex human trait controlled by both genetic and environmental factors.
I was talking more about what Lambros Malafouris studies and researches.
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/how-things-shape-mind
How Things Shape the Mind
A Theory of Material Engagement
By Lambros Malafouris
Foreword by Colin Renfrew
Summary
An account of the different ways in which things have become cognitive extensions of the human body, from prehistory to the present.
An increasingly influential school of thought in cognitive science views the mind as embodied, extended, and distributed rather than brain-bound or “all in the head.” This shift in perspective raises important questions about the relationship between cognition and material culture, posing major challenges for philosophy, cognitive science, archaeology, and anthropology. In How Things Shape the Mind, Lambros Malafouris proposes a cross-disciplinary analytical framework for investigating the ways in which things have become cognitive extensions of the human body. Using a variety of examples and case studies, he considers how those ways might have changed from earliest prehistory to the present. Malafouris’s Material Engagement Theory definitively adds materiality—the world of things, artifacts, and material signs—into the cognitive equation. His account not only questions conventional intuitions about the boundaries and location of the human mind but also suggests that we rethink classical archaeological assumptions about human cognitive evolution.
In my opinion this completely undermines the claim that ancient Greeks were more intelligent than we are. For one thing, they didn’t have the internet with tools like https://iris.ai/
Background
Iris.ai was founded at Singularity University at NASA Ames Research park summer 2015. Challenged to come up with an idea that would positively impact the lives of 1 billion people, the team was formed and problem areas were explored. We soon found a common frustration with the access to and passion for the value of scientific knowledge, and as such Iris.ai – named after the Greek messenger goddess, bringing messages from the gods to the people – was born.
Cheers!
Back atcha Fred,
There’s absolutely no doubt that our species continues to evolve.We survive and thrive in the face of diseases that used to kill us quickly……… even ones such as syphilis. Men who have it sire and raise kids successfully. Within the last few centuries, most of us of Euro extraction have evolved so as to make it possible for us to digest milk as adults.
And I agree about extra somatic intelligence.
But to go back to the original question….. Are people born with less than average native intelligence less likely to survive today than in historical times?
I think the answer is yes, but as I said earlier, I can’t prove it. I believe native intelligence in humans correlates in a fairly strong way with the blood line, just as it does with other species……. I can train a Lab to do tricks a lot easier than I can a hound……. Labs are more intelligent.
So if the more intelligent people among us deliberately have FEWER kids, even as the less intelligent ones have MORE kids, in relative terms……… I can’t see any reason to doubt that our average native intelligence may be declining.
And modern societies work in such a way that more intelligent people manage the affairs of the less intelligent to a substantial degree….. by for instance providing immunizations, pure drinking water, taking away the sewage, providing a nutritious lunch for school kids… outlawing meth……….
Bottom line, more stupid kids may survive than they would otherwise, in competition with smarter kids.
This decline would be very slight, in statistical terms, of course and might not even be detectable.
But this does not mean the effect isn’t or can’t be real.
How Wearable AI Will Amplify Human Intelligence
Lauren Golembiewski
https://hbr.org/2019/04/how-wearable-ai-will-amplify-human-intelligence
Imagine that your team is meeting to decide whether to continue an expensive marketing campaign. After a few minutes, it becomes clear that nobody has the metrics on-hand to make the decision. You chime in with a solution and ask Amazon’s virtual assistant Alexa to back you up with information: “Alexa, how many users did we convert to customers last month with Campaign A?” and Alexa responds with the answer. You just amplified your team’s intelligence with AI. But this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Intelligence amplification is the use of technology to augment human intelligence. And a paradigm shift is on the horizon, where new devices will offer less intrusive, more intuitive ways to amplify our intelligence.
The need for an intelligence-amplifying device that is less obtrusive than a smartphone and more discreet than a voice interface is clear. Many technologists and entrepreneurs are working to create the next revolutionary intelligence-amplifying device that will solve the problems of its predecessors while giving users seamless access to advanced AI systems.
Yes indeed Cats@..
For certain fields, this is going to be huge.
A lot to ponder.
Some companies are going to be bigger than Apple if they get it right.
Maybe it will be Apple.
In my field (about 30,000) in the USA, every single one will use this kind AI device when it becomes appropriately developed for the specific purpose (which will remain unspecifyed in my case).
An example of one of the components is voice recognition. That technology is now nearly flawless for certain very complex technical fields, regardless of accent. I have seen a product work with people from more than 10 other countries speaking their normal voice in English, even when English was a second language. It even works with people from Louisiana! It takes a a short amount of time for the software to learn your personal voice.
Hi Iron.
I’m worried about AI too, however upon further thought
I suspect that if cars were 100% AI, there would be about 80% (guess) less injuries to humans than there are now.
I do think it is being deployed too quickly, before long experience in test conditions.
So were the first cars.
So were human beings.
We just had an American drive into the end of a crash barrier here, no Autopilot to blame, car and driver were right offs. We seem to have a plague of cars going off road or turning over in perfectly good conditions. At the same time the number of people I see driving while looking at their phones seems to be going up. Coincidence?
NAOM
Iron- here is one for you.
Flash forward 7 years. Times have changed.
For the past two years you did not pay the government tax on leisure time and skipped out on your mandatory community service at the old folks home, feeling that the notoriously poor enforcement would spare you any consequence.
And one day you got in your car (electric of course) to go down to the pub.
Low and behold, the AI drive took over, the windows went up and the doors locked, and despite attempts to to over-ride it, it delivered you directly to the
regional government finance office (jail) , where officials (police robots) were waiting to take you into custody for ‘secondary reprogramming’…
Nice dystopian future lol
find a copy of Harry Harrison’s War with the Robots
Humans were the weak link that needed to be removed and the safest place for them to live was on a patch of ground above the now fully AI controlled command center as it was the best defended place…..
Self driving cars aren’t AI, because AI isn’t required to drive a car. Much more primitive systems are good enough.
A recent paper illustrated this using an neural network that scores extremely high on visual recognition tasks. It identifies the first picture here as a snorkel, and the second as a diver. Why? Because the first picture lacks an oxygen tank, and the second includes an object that looks a lot like an oxygen tank. The “obvious” disconnect between the supposed tank and the diver doesn’t occur in most images so it isn’t learned. The system is really really dumb, but is statistically very likely to work well.
Eh, I suck at this. Here is the first pic:
Climate Change – The Facts (by Sir David Attenborough)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVnsxUt1EHY
Yeah, David Attenborough has such a great voice and way of speaking. Soothing, clear and confident.
Still, it’s mostly the government massaged message. If Paul Revere worked for the IPCC he would have arrived with his warning 50 years after the British and been declared a mental incompetent. 🙂
Sad about the flying foxes. However, their previously developed adaptive behaviors to handle heat indicate they were already near their temperature limits. For those near the boundaries of existence, even small changes or occasional spikes can push them beyond life limits.
It is however, the tendency of life to push the limits.
I agree it is a bit massaged. I personally don’t think much will change anytime soon regarding climate change. BAU will continue until the wheels fall off.
The law of adapt or perish will be pushed hard in the next 15 years and beyond.
Sometimes i wonder if Mcpherson is right with his prediction.
I already get my facts from Ice Age Now or reading Joe Bastardi’s observations, thank you.
Alex Spicker,
The you are well insulated.
You need not read anything at this site nor make another post. Do the decent thing, all right?
“CO2 cannot cause global warming. I’ll tell you why. It doesn’t mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot — it literally cannot cause global warming.”
You’re listening to a guy who not only completely misunderstands what specific gravity is, but also somehow believes it is related to temperature. From this single comment, it’s clear he understands absolutely nothing of physics.
In other news:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/01/eviation-chooses-magnix-magni250-to-power-alice-9-seat-electric-airplane/
Eviation Chooses magniX magni250 To Power Alice, 9-Seat Electric Airplane
Omer said:
“We have been successfully testing the magniX system with our Alice aircraft propeller for quite some time now with great results. We will begin manufacturing battery-powered fleets this year for our U.S. regional carrier customers, with a value proposition that reduces their operating costs by up to 70 percent. In 2017, Americans spent $1 trillion traveling distances between 50 and 650 miles. Our goal is to undercut the cost of commuting by making middle mile trips cheaper, faster and cleaner. Together with magniX we’re providing an economically and environmentally sustainable mobility solution that will forever change the face of aviation, and consumer travel.”
I wonder how long before electric battery powered aircraft shows up on Tony Seba’s disruption radar. Though to be fair even as recently as a year ago, I myself would have said that it would be a decade or more before the technology to disrupt air transport with electric planes would become available. Now I’m not so sure. Seems things are speeding up. Though still not even close to fast enough!
Tiny glimmer of hope: Extinction Rebellion protests have accomplished their number one goal!
UK Parliament declares climate change emergency
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48126677
The declaration of an emergency was one of the key demands put to the government by environmental activist group Extinction Rebellion, in a series of protests over recent weeks.
Addressing climate protesters from the top of a fire engine in Parliament Square earlier, Mr Corbyn said: “This can set off a wave of action from parliaments and governments around the globe.
“We pledge to work as closely as possible with countries that are serious about ending the climate catastrophe and make clear to US President Donald Trump that he cannot ignore international agreements and action on the climate crisis.”
Part of the ’emergency’ response is learning to live smaller, slower, and more local. No need for any air travel. Why waste the electricity? Why even build those batteries? Why ban the natural world from all the space occupied by airports, and the industrial support network.
Think beyond.
[enter the infuriated responses below]
At the risk of coming accross as being rather selfish. My 87 year old mother lives in Brazil and has recently received a diagnosis which does not bode well for her being around all that much longer. My brother and sister both live in Germany.
What do you suggest we do?
I’m sure our circumstance is not all that unique!
For the record we did not create the current system we were born into it. I agree with your basic premise but many of us are now stuck between a rock and a very hard place!
OOOPSY, the internet’s carbon footprint exceeds that of air travel. Quickly get off of it and cancel the connections. Then go fly instead. sarc
https://climatecare.org/infographic-the-carbon-footprint-of-the-internet/
Enjoy your flights Fred, sitting in a chair up in the stratosphere is a lot better than punching keys on a computer.
‘Better’ seems relative here, but in any case, I wonder what would happen, say, GHG emissions-wise, if everyone who is, and can only afford to ‘be’, online could suddenly afford to travel by air as well, and proceeded to do so.
I know Fred.
Just pointing out that we are all doing our part to junk the place. Whether by typing or flying, eating, or procreating.
We like to think its the other 7,701,336,864 that are the problem.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
Hickory, I think we all know that. That is why we are all trying to reduce our carbon footprints and change technology away from burning fossil fuel.
Oh no, I drove my car three miles today and then turned on my computer! (I won’t tell anyone that I did not drive the previous two days, shhh)
Shame on me.
However, all this may mean very little anyway.
Just have a think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv_0dpsxsNY
Sorry Fred,
I’ve had a few beers, and I’m feeling angry. Why do you start with “At the risk of coming across as being rather selfish”? Is it because you know are putting your emotional comfort above the challenges of global warming?
I live in Australia. Of my European forebears, only my Irish grandfather was of a sufficiently recent generation for me to know his story. When he left Ireland to come to Australia, he never saw his parents again. That was the cost of the chance of a wealthier life. And that would be the story for so many emigrants around the world more than 70 years ago.
It pisses me off that these days people want to have their cake and eat it too. Brothers, sisters, all over the world. Admit you’ve all made choices, and don ‘t go using “the current system we were born into” as an excuse.
I wonder how the next generations will feel about our excuses.
I’ve had a few beers, and I’m feeling angry.
Hey, that’s your problem not mine. Maybe you should smoke a nice spiff and mellow out instead of drinking beer and projecting your anger! So what did you know and what were you doing 30 or 40 years ago. Were you aware of your energy use and the fact that the capitalist growth based economic system was unsustainable! Back then it wasn’t even on my radar!
But now we do know, so I suggest you direct your anger at your own government!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/capitalism-un-scientists-preparing-end-fossil-fuels-warning-demise-a8523856.html
This is how UN scientists are preparing for the end of capitalism
As the era of cheap energy comes to an end, capitalist thinking is struggling to solve the huge problems facing humanity. So how do we respond?
Link to paper:
https://bios.fi/bios-governance_of_economic_transition.pdf
Global Sustainable Development Report 2019 drafted by the Group of independent scientists
Invited background document on economic transformation, to chapter:
Transformation: The Economy
Cheers!
Yes, I see the move to renewable energy (solar and wind) as a great move away from extractive polluting fossil energy to real time free collective energy.
The fact that we won’t be using as much energy to perform tasks, grow food, or keep warm/cool fits right into that transistion. It is more of a challenge than a problem.
This is a great first step to the next type of society, one that is free of most hierarchy and is more biology based.
The full transistion will take a whole new way of thinking bout our role and place along with a refusal to use harmful inventions and ideas (wisdom).
First we must get rid of the psychopathic social structure.
Hey Phil
“It pisses me off that these days people want to have their cake and eat it too. ”
You need to get the point, this was about improving the aircraft so it did not pollute. Then the thread was highjacked by our local anti-aircraft curmudgeon. Then you hop on the “shoot down Fred and planes wagon”.
This type of “conversation” is an example of why we are muddling along with our problems and never really fixing them. Those who are interested in trying solutions have to spend their time playing wack-a-mole fighting all the illogical and uncorroborated dissent that shows up against every positive change that is even discussed let alone attempted.
Sometimes I think much of the human race is suicidal and does not want things to go well.
Still, reality is planes are here to stay until industrial civilization ends. They are being improved in many different ways and for good or bad. Once they don’t pollute, then the anti-aircraft people will find some way to complain. Even though they are currently only a small part of the problem.
The real problems happen between the ears of those who do not want to leave fossil fuels behind.
Hickory, you don’t get it or look at reality. Idealism is great, it can point us to some wonderful ideas such as Half Earth( which I am all for).
But in reality that is not going to happen anytime soon.
Maybe you should look at what is really happening and then see what improvements can be made in the real world, not some fantasy world that “oughta be”.
There is no mental flip-flop on my part and you are a shitty arm-chair psychologist, total flop.
One of the sad parts of trying to communicate is that every time one looks realistically at the world one bumps up against both the idealists and the fossil curmudgeons.
BTW, progress past renewables is mandatory, if human civilization lasts that long, which is doubtful. I won’t get into those advanced systems here, people don’t even understand the basics.
You remind me of the kid in the back seat who keeps clamoring “are we there yet?”. Adults know the journey must be made to get to the destination, unless one knows how to magically teleport. I will leave the fantasy to others.
The burn is on, please wave your magic wand and make it go away. When I don’t see any airplanes in the sky ( I don’t fly myself) I will know you were successful.
Until then us dumbasses will just keep trying to improve things in the real world, slogging mindlessly along until we can’t anymore, wondering why our superior’s ideas never came to fruition.
Enjoy the warmth in Lilliput ^3.
Here you go Phil, why don’t rail against this entire system! I’m just one passenger on one of these planes maybe once every year and a half to two years.
https://www.flightradar24.com/48.86,2.56/6
Maybe you can pick an airport near you and stand next to arrivals and hand out leaflets to every passenger asking them to give up flying…
Good Luck!
I’m sorry to read about your mother, Fred. I will put your family in my prayers.
Because doing so would probably result in a lot of human death and suffering, wars etc. and we know that human suffering must be avoided at all costs, to hell with the environment! /sarc.
Seriously though, I advocate a massive shift to EVs and renewables in the hope that it can sensitize the general public to the fact that, we can run our civilization without pumping huge amounts of CO2 into the air and without the pain discomfort and expense that the FF lobby is busy telling the world will be the result of trying to change. just take a look at some of the stories over at reneweconomy.com.au. Here’s an example from RenewEconomy’s sister site The Driven:
“Truly ludicrous”: EV Council angered by Angus Taylor’s “housing tax” lie
The major reason to reduce and end the carbon plume at this point is to leave some of the ecosystem intact or at least viable for life. Any plan that does not incorporate the multitude of other life as the major part of it’s framework is bound for disastrous failure.
I read these “green” plans and most of them make me sick for they are making the same mistake over and over in being only human centric and industrial centric.
It’s certainly the case that most energy is squandered. People advocate solar and wind to save the environment, but just taxing carbon heavily enough to cut waste would reduce consumption without requiring new energy sources.
I agree that heavy taxes would cut energy use in half and probably cut the population somewhat, from the bottom up. Of course, the reality is that even 10 percent of our current emissions would still push climate change forward.
Instead of trying to work against the thermodynamics and still continuing the same old system (which will end anyway due to other limits), why not short circuit the thermodynamic problem with low temperature renewable energy? Much cleaner, cheaper and might give us time to make a step toward actual sustainability. All from an endless source of free energy.
We don’t need taxes (a form of oppression of the poor and a way to make people poorer), we need to make laws that end the fossil fuel burn.
I say we, because the leadership of the two major parties will never do it. Not really. They know if they put heavy taxes on us, there will be a rebellion and society will fragment in a very nasty way.
First step, everyone reduce their fossil fuel burn by at least 50%. Send the message. End the insanity.
I say we, because the leadership of the two major parties will never do it.
Unfortunately you are correct! There is no one in any position of leadership in either major party, who has any grasp whatsoever, that the current economic and social system is already completely obsolete.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-01/pelosi-invokes-obama-to-head-off-ocasio-cortez-s-green-new-deal
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is trying to head off her party’s restive progressive caucus by invoking the legacy of President Barack Obama to build support for a climate change bill that falls well short of the ambitions of the Green New Deal championed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Pelosi is planning a vote by the House this week on a bill that would prohibit President Donald Trump’s administration from going through with plans to pull out of the Paris climate agreement.
Liberal Democrats are leaving little doubt that the legislation won’t be enough.
IMHO, even the Green New Deal is not even close to being radical enough!
See links in my comment upthread:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/eias-electric-power-monthly-april-2019-edition-with-data-for-february-2019/#comment-675751
A lawyer set himself on fire to protest climate change. Did anyone care?
by J Oliver Conroy
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/15/david-buckel-lawyer-climate-change-protest
Early on the morning of 14 April 2018, David Buckel – a 60-year-old retired gay rights attorney – left his cozy, garden-surrounded Brooklyn house and walked to nearby Prospect Park. He made his way to a stretch of grass, where he emailed media outlets a statement decrying humanity’s passivity in the face of pollution and global warming.
A few minutes later, he doused himself in gasoline and set himself on fire.
“Most humans on the planet now breathe air made unhealthy by fossil fuels, and many die early deaths as a result,” his statement said. “[M]y early death by fossil fuel reflects what we are doing to ourselves.”
With characteristic care, he also left a short note at the scene for emergency personnel. “I am David Buckel and I just killed myself by fire as a protest suicide,” he wrote. “I apologize to you for the mess.”
None of Buckel’s family or friends were aware of his intent, and we will never know for certain whether pre-existing mental distress may have contributed to his decision to take his life. But his writing made it clear he viewed his death in political terms and hoped it would galvanize mass action.
The mass action Buckel had hoped for did not come. There was no Prague spring or Tunisian revolution for the planet. Writing in the New York Times less than a week later, the novelist Nathan Englander asked why Buckel’s death received so little attention compared with the “AR-15-level attention that we give the very worst among us”, mass killers.
The muted response was probably, in part, an understandable reluctance to glorify suicide. A profile of Buckel in the Times, investigating what might have driven a seemingly healthy man to set himself on fire, acknowledged that the question was mostly impossible to answer.
But perhaps there were even more fundamental, unresolvable questions making otherwise sympathetic people uneasy: was Buckel’s death an act of optimism, or surrender? And what is individual responsibility, when confronted by the seemingly insurmountable crisis of a rapidly changing planet?
View from the pulpit:
Worry not of earthly things, for in the end will be created a paradise for the believers and the righteous.
The rest can go to hell.
“This proposal, which demonstrates the will of the Commons on the issue but does not legally compel the government to act, was approved without a vote.”
The ringing sound of hollow victory.
We all fall down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVpPlWlHMrA
Bring out your dead!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0d8kpybVg
panem et circenses
“I wonder how long before electric battery powered aircraft shows up on Tony Seba’s disruption radar.”
Not until they get away from the cigar crossed ruler concept of aircraft design.
NAOM
Still beats ‘Climate Change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese’ followed by withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement… wouldn’t you agree?
I am not impressed.
Hand waving and platitudes are just to disperse the crowds and quell the public.
They are worse than withdrawal because many people will believe something will be done when it won’t. At least we know where DT stands and do not have false expectations.
If they meant it, they would have made it binding.
The point is this is the result of a mass movement. I don’t think that mass movement has run its course or will just say ‘Great! Mission Accomplished! We can all go home now!
For the record I have no illusions, but listen to the statements made by UK government. It is obvious that they have been feeling the heat.
Re: Best way to combat climate change…
Let nature handle it and spend your time concentrating on real issues, such as controlling all the illegal immigration, or getting GDP up above 3% growth continually like we had last quarter. Absolutely no pay increases for the EPA, no new hiring of EPA feds, don’t give our tax money away to the UN so that they try to fight nature.
Troll alert
.
Yeah, completely unrealistic far-right talking points and red herrings.
It’s always fascinating to see the latest ideas. For an example of a red herring – somebody has thrown in the idea that fighting climate change has something to do with giving money to the UN. Scary foreigners!
Interesting situation in South Australia over the past couple of days:
South Australia solar farms switch off as prices fall below zero
Below is a graph of the power situation in South Australia over the past 7 days. From https://opennem.org.au/#/regions/sa
Sucks to sell fuel when solar farms are giving energy away. Germany has been having these incidents as well
https://www.energy-charts.de/price.htm?auction=1h&year=2019&month=4
High penetration of PV In Front of the Meter is unmanageable since it is Open Loop. Current Utility designed Grid Tie standards for customer owned distributed generation preclude high penetration. Well designed Behind the Meter PV systems utilizes the resource by making hot water or Ice (Phase Change Energy Storage), removal of heat and humidity from a dwelling, etc, often even before an optional Battery is charged. New Utility designed GT Inverter standards are EVIL since control of customer-owned assets are surrendered to State Lawmakers/Utility/Gestapo. They also discourage customers own systems from doing the right things. Surrender of customer generation assets in California has been delayed till August. https://blog.aurorasolar.com/californias-new-smart-inverter-requirements-what-rule-21-means-for-solar-design
High penetrations of IN FRONT OF THE METER PV proves humans are truly not smarter than yeast.
I fully agree, but how do we change it?
” but how do we change it?” There are 10 or so – Steps that will get one in the right direction It’s an uphill battle. We are brainwashed that Nat Gas and Oil is Abundant. We know energy essential to modern life comes from a socket. I just got back from a Wholesale club and noticed the Energy Ratings were absent from the Window AC’s – The total Biosphere impact and financial ownership costs of these units is staggering. There used to be some good Appropriate Technologies Catalogs like RealGoods, now they are full of crap toys and Battery dependent systems.
I need to do a Presentation on this.
Looks like pork is going to be the expensive white meat. Not to mention the danger of this virus mutating and jumping to humans. Kills the pigs in 10 days and is now all over China who has 400 million or so pigs.
“After months of claiming the situation was under control, Beijing is now warning that pork prices in China could rise by more than 70% in the second half of this year.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47956960
Time to stop eating cows, pigs and chicken! Maybe even fish like tuna.
https://chooseveg.com/blog/chicken-and-pork-are-impossible-foods-next-plant-based-frontier/
Plant-Based Frontier
By now you’ve likely heard about the Impossible Burger—the burger so believably like a beef patty that it has been embraced by restaurants around the world. Its secret, in addition to a proprietary blend of plant-based proteins, is heme. Beef gets its distinctive flavor from the iron in heme. While the heme in the Impossible Burger is plant-derived, it is identical to the heme in beef.
Now the creators of the plant-based patty have more exciting news: Plant-based versions of chicken and pork are next on their agenda. This week Impossible Foods’ director of national expansion, Jordan Sadowsky, told Food Navigator that development of chicken and pork products is currently underway, although he didn’t say when the new products would be released. A vegan steak is also rumored to be on the company’s horizon. Since the company’s standard is perfection, these products will surely be worth the wait.
https://qz.com/quartzy/1501623/shrimp-made-from-algae-that-looks-and-tastes-like-the-real-thing/
SHRIMP MADE FROM ALGAE THAT LOOKS AND TASTES LIKE THE REAL THING
https://vegconomist.com/products-and-launches/new-vegan-salmon-is-made-from-algae/
New Vegan Salmon is Made From Algae
I saw a great bumper sticker-
Possum! The other other white meat.
Maybe even fish like tuna.
One has to be a sociopath, or ignorant (or both) to be eating bluefin tuna.
(I’m a former commercial fisherman)
First, I myself do not eat any Tuna.
My point was only intended as food for thought about the possibility of making a plant based food look and taste like Tuna, thereby perhapse creating the conditions for one day eliminating the entire business and market for large pelagic ocean fish.
Kool Fred– the comment was not directed to your actions.
It looks like commercial fishing is going into the rear view mirror—
How do you feel about skipjack?
Skipjack are fairly common, in this depleted world.
We used them for marlin bait, and I have caught them in the surf on a fly rod in Mexico (something I have a hard time grasping).
Strong flavor, and not premium.
But all that is in the rear view mirror —
And right on cue!
https://physicsworld.com/a/industries-join-forces-to-power-up-electric-vehicles/
MATERIALS FOR ENERGY NEWS
Industries join forces to power up electric vehicles
Milk floats were way ahead of their time it turns out. These electric powered carts that trundled from house to house silently delivering milk and dairy at the crack of dawn skipped the whole diesel, petrol-junkie era, leapfrogging from horse power to electric back in the late 1950s. Now consumers are beginning to catch on, opting for electric vehicles for their road trips and commutes in larger and larger numbers, prompting the UK automobile and chemical industries to align their efforts so that vehicle manufacturers can locally source all the required battery components from mined materials to the installed battery pack.
assuredly they did make noise as they used to wake me up in the mornings ( along with clinking of bottles ) . When Thatcher scrapped the milk regulations our local dairies faded away and as distances between depots increased it was more economical to replace with diesels but the damage was done .
Milk is mostly purchased from the supermarkets now .
Most of the local dairy depots have been “converted” to flats now.
Milk is still delivered along with other groceries and as regulation changes again it is likely that the diesel trucks will be all electric again but that doesn’t solve the supermarket issue.
Forbin
I remember milk being delivered to the door. Bygone days.
Since milk is picked up while shopping for other groceries, it does not really change the carbon burden much to get it from a store. Picking it and the groceries on the way home from work or other tasks cuts out the fossil fuel burn problem.
As we convert to vehicles with no carbon emissions, sourced from carbon free energy, the problems sink backward to the mines and industries. They too will convert as much as possible.
Next we throttle back over consumption, but that is another topic.
I recall a block of ice being delivered to our door so that said milk could be kept cold in the “icebox”.
OMG Race Fans, John Batchelor be a Fossil Fool, but off to races for Godzilla Pickups. “Why would you switch to an electric vehicle and give up your F150?” Just think of UTILITY! Oh, Battery requirements gets m juices flowing. Will they get it Right? – As in Battery Agnostic. The Biggest holdback in Transition/De-carbonization for many applications is Lack of Battery Standardization. Bed dimensions would be a Dream for even an Auxiliary Pak. Take Power tools. It would be Game over if we had a 50v/500Wh Battery Standard. Four could cut a lawn for decades. A big step for sapiens in Freedom from the Shackles of the Grid. Podcast here:
https://player.fm/series/the-john-batchelor-show-96788/rivian-electric-suv-and-rivian-electric-pickup-are-the-trend-vehicles-at-the-ny-auto-show-lou-ann-hammond-drivingthenat
Battery Wars could delay EV Production ramp ups.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB4r3RXulCc
Brexit – What Facebook and Trump did with us, Carole Cadwalladr YouTube video
Well worth 4 minutes of your time IMO. More and more it is becoming apparent that the current US presidency is illegitimate.
Not sure about her narrow viewpoint. Fact is corporations and lobbyist have been buying elections for a while now. It seems to me that people are sick of the establishment and career politicians. And Trump exploited that. Once he got it, he got the establishment into his cabinet again so obviously he was full of shit but he is a cunning character, not sure if the people voting for him see what he actually has done with regards to the “draining the swamp”. Nothing but a lie. As soon as he got in he got the swamp into his cabinet.
Chomsky nails this fact with this answer about Trump:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLyS0E91H1o
Since the 1970s both of the political parties have shifted to the right. The democrats by the 1970s pretty much abandoned the working class
What are your thoughts on the events in Australia in the run up to the federal elections next week? How effective is the Murdoch media machine at influencing the minds of everyday people?
From my point of view, all media machines are influential. Obviously the higher the budget usually means better tricks hence more influential on the masses. Murdoch i believe is backing Scott Morrison (Liberal party). It is so obvious if one looks at the propaganda put out there against labor.
I think labor party will win, not because of anything spectacular on their part. Basically because of all the shenanigans the liberals have pulled the past few years. We have had 3 different prime ministers, 1 of which was voted in, so Abbott was voted in. The guy is borderline retarded on the IQ scale (which also speaks volumes about the people who voted for him). Then Scott Morrison hijacked Abbotts credibility and took over the liberal party, and then Scott Morrison basically did the same to Turnbull.
Australian politics is more like a drama series like the days of our lives, they provide more entertain to the masses than actual public service.
Islandboy, you and I don’t see eye to eye with respect to renewables and the future which is fine, i respect your views. With regards to Australia, i for the life of me cannot see complete switch to renewables at all. Obviously it is hard to predict, but the infrastructure, politics, budget and national security won’t ever allow that transition completely. Right now 85% of Australia’s electricity is powered by ff. By 2030 maybe they @ best they can get that at 70% at best, in my worthless opinion. But I think the collapse of civilization will follow shortly after peak oil ~ 2025ish as GDP begins to decline shortly after. But that is again just my worthless opinion.
Of all the industrial nations, Australia probably has the best climate and geography for heavy dependence on solar energy, especially if a north to south electricity transmission infrastructure were to be developed. As a result I am particularly intrigued by the situation in Australia, with some quarters calling for an all in push on renewables and facing strong push back from the very well established and highly profitable FF lobby.
I will be watching the elections next week with keen interest!
Iron Mike,
There’s no way the dug in coal power industry can hold on forever, getting absurdly high prices, unless it has political clout enough to stop the people from installing more and more solar systems, at the residential, business, and commercial production level.
The old fart generation, MY generation, is fast headed to the cemetery, and the younger generations don’t rely on network television and a daily paper for their information anymore. That one paper and television could keep them in the dark indefinitely, but nowadays, nearly every younger person has smartphone in his or her pocket………..
It’s no longer possible to fool all of the people all of the time about such issues.
All the regulation in the world can’t stop an individual from installing a few solar panels and hooking them directly to his air conditioner, no grid interconnection necessary.
When battery powered cars and light trucks get to be just a little bit cheaper, Aussies are going to buy them like crazy…….. and charge them up with their own dirt cheap home grown electricity……… and once that happens……
The people will eventually kick out the politicians who are in big coal’s vest pocket.
Chomsky did nail that one– the Dems have abandoned the working class (but with the new young women congress people, that possibly could change.)
I’m sure the Venezuelan govt knows all about Operation Condor and how that lost the entire South American continent a generation of its best people and degraded its progress and development.
They will not be taking that path this time.
Thanks, clearing out the sewer is part of democracy.
Our Battle of Britain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isfr1pn9iXY
Gov. Jay Inslee unveils sweeping initiative to combat climate change
“Inslee unveiled his initiative, dubbed the “100% Clean Energy for America Plan,” on Friday morning. The proposal’s scope is sweeping — laying out 100% clean energy standards across three sectors: electricity, new vehicles and the construction of new buildings. ”
“Gov. Inslee has been a leading advocate for transitioning America to clean, renewable energy for decades. This is not a new-found passion of his,” said Mark Jacobson, a climate expert and Stanford University professor, who described Inslee’s initiatives as “feasible, bold, and necessary first steps.”
“Inslee says he will aim to make sure coal industry workers, their families and their communities don’t fall through the cracks. That means as the nation transitions — extra training for new clean energy jobs, education and assurance of opportunities in a clean energy economy.
“If elected, Inslee’s proposal begins on day one of his administration. Then, spanning over 10 years, it aims by 2030 to reach 100% zero emissions from new vehicles; zero carbon pollution from all new commercial and residential buildings; and would require 100% carbon-neutral power across the country. By 2035, it proposes completely clean, renewable and zero-emission energy nationwide.”
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/gov-jay-inslee-unveils-sweeping-initiative-combat-climate/story?id=62768393
“Jay Inslee unveiled his “100% Clean Energy for America Plan” on Friday. Inslee says the ten-year plan, which is modeled after a clean energy law that was passed in April in his own state, would deliver 100 percent clean energy, make all new vehicles zero-emission, and would eliminate the carbon footprint for all new buildings.
The plan would shut down America’s coal-fired power plants, but says that every region in the U.S. will begin at “a different starting point.” It would also require utilities to become 100 percent carbon neutral by 2030.
The plan includes tax incentives for the deployment of zero-emission technologies, such as renewable electricity and energy and smart grids. “This clean electricity will be the backbone of our economy powering homes, vehicles and industry,” the plan says. ”
“This plan addresses the most critical infrastructure that needs transitioning as fast as possible — electricity generation, transportation, and buildings,” Jacobson said.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jay-inslee-unveils-plan-for-100-percent-clean-energy-by-2030/
That’s a plan that could only have come from a state where maryjane is legal. Somebody is…
“Somebody is…” by the name of Steven Haner an uneducated coward stuck in the past”
**********
California’s economy is now the 5th-biggest in the world, and has overtaken the United Kingdom
New economic data puts the California economy at $2.747 trillion — bigger than most nations (and the state of Texas).
The ranking puts in fifth in the world, just ahead of the United Kingdom, which is on $2.625 trillion.
The difference is striking given California’s population of 40 million to the UK’s 66 million.
1. United States $19.391 trillion
2. China $12.015 trillion
3. Japan $4.872 trillion
4. Germany $3.685 trillion
5. California $2.747 trillion
6. United Kingdom $2.625 trillion
7. India $2.611 trillion
8. France $2.584 trillion
9. Brazil $2.055 trillion
10. Italy $1.938 trillion
11. Texas $1.696 trillion
12. Canada $1.652 trillion
13. New York $1.547 trillion
14. South Korea $1.538 trillion
15. Russia $1.527 trillion
https://www.businessinsider.com/california-economy-ranks-5th-in-the-world-beating-the-uk-2018-5
BTW, Jay Inslee: Governor of Washington since 2013 and is it cold in St. Petersburg this time of year ?
“Just say No” to Russian oil and trolls
I much prefer the maryjane induced California Dreamin, to the crystal meth and cocaine induced nightmare that your psychopathic fossil fuel addled brain is on!
The plan is so radical and would upend so many people’s lives that people aren’t even going to think about actually implementing it, in order to avoid becoming fearful or panicked. You’re better off denying there’s any problem at all so that way you feel better.
By the way, Inslee hasn’t gotten much traction in the campaign, even though he’s the one talking about climate change the most. Right now, the nomination looks like Joe Biden’s to lose, but a lot could still change.
“better off denying there’s any problem at all so that way you feel better”
14 Ways to Acquire Knowledge: A Timeless Guide from 1936
Among its highlights is a section titled 14 Ways to Acquire Knowledge — a blueprint to intellectual growth, advocating for such previously discussed essentials as the importance of taking example from those who have succeeded and organizing the information we encounter, the power of curiosity, the osmosis between learning and teaching, the importance of critical thinking (because, as Christopher Hitchens pithily put it, “what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence”), the benefits of writing things down, why you should let your opinions be fluid rather than rigid, the art of listening, the art of observation, and the very core of what it means to be human.
https://www.brainpickings.org/2013/04/22/14-ways-to-acquire-knowledge-james-mangan-1936/
The plan is so radical and would upend so many people’s lives that people aren’t even going to think about actually implementing it, in order to avoid becoming fearful or panicked. You’re better off denying there’s any problem at all so that way you feel better.
If you think that plan is radical and it will upend so many people’s lives you obviously don’t have a clue as to how radical a plan for really upending people’s lives nature has in store for us! Perhaps you are among those that think that droughts, fires, floods, famine, pestilence, mass extinction and the collapse of civilization are just minor and temporary inconveniences that can be fixed in the next economic cycle…
I think HuntingtonBeach’s quote and cartoon are right on the money. No pun intended!
Cheers!
Two of those pigs lost their homes and lives to huffing and puffing climate change. So I guess losing two-thirds is OK.
Remember to do as well as you can or your house will blow down.
UH,OH, our civilization is made of sticks and straw loosely tied together, the ecosystems and biota are not made out of brick! Bad plan.
Enjoy the Climate Wolf, there is no escape. We did not do as well as we could.
You won’t ever get a majority of the voting population to vote to deliberately lower their disposable income and/or standard of living, OK? Only the types on forums like this would do something as drastic as that, but we aren’t anywhere close to the majority, and majorities are what count in a democracy.
People are often afraid of or skeptical of changes. Yet changes happen anyway.
As far as standard of living and disposable income, it means little if one is dead, injured, out of work or starving.
Nature is voting, that is the vote that counts.
Drastic is what happens anyway.
Sur you will. It happens all the time. For example, Americans voted for Republicans, whose fight against Obamacare has reduce the income of tens of millions.
Clean Disruption: Why Conventional Energy and Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030 (YouTube Video)
Yeah but we still have places like Texas that are powered by, populated by and still governed by, fossils 😉
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/gm-tesla-ford-race-to-build-ev-pickups-texas-ranchers-dont-want.html
GM joins Tesla, Ford in building EV pickups — but Texas ranchers don’t want a ‘playboy’s truck’
The start-up’s R1T will make “close to” 800 horsepower, CEO RJ Scaringe said in Los Angeles, enough to hit 60 mph in 3 seconds. Its roughly 1,000 pound-feet of torque will let it haul a trailer of up to 11,000 pounds, and it is expected to get up to 400 miles on a 180 kilowatt-hour battery pack.
‘Playboy’s truck’
Those are the sort of numbers that would seem to play well with classic pickup users such as rancher Frank Helvey, who raises cattle and is active in the livestock auction community near Pearsall, Texas.
“I wouldn’t buy one at all. It wouldn’t make sense for me. It sounds like a playboy’s truck, instead of a work truck,” he said in an interview.
Hahaha! Yet, I have a strong suspicion that even Texans will be getting off fossil fuels, will be eating veggie burgers, will drive EV pickup trucks powered by wind and solar, because it will make economic sense.
Then you have this general level of ignorance!
“The other issue, out in the remote area where I live, is access to a mechanic,” Williams added. He employs a mechanic who can handle his diesel and gas trucks, but if an all-electric model “breaks down, what do I do?”
It ain’t a problem at all and he won’t need to employ a mechanic to keep his electric truck running!
Hi Fred,
I generally agree with you, but speaking as one of the rural guys who has had to deal with new tech that’s not yet popular in the boonies, I’m afraid you are a tad too optimistic about the need for mechanics capable of working on electric vehicles.
Of course they will be calling themselves programmers or electronics technicians, rather than grease monkeys.
The likelihood is that for years to come, anytime you have a problem with an electric vehicle, you will get thoroughly reamed by the manufacturer or dealership, no vaseline, no sweet talk, just hand over all the cash you have and can borrow, because they own the programming, and you can’t for the life of you figure out how all these little black boxes work, unless you are an electrical engineer and willing to devote a SUBSTANTIAL amount of time to the job.
Just about everybody I ever met who has worked at a dealership agrees that the sales department exists primarily to send business to the maintenance shop.
Finding an independent Tesla mechanic, and Tesla has the big lead in sales volume, is going to be as tough as finding a virgin in a cat house for another decade at least.
Old farts who actually WORK and who run family sized businesses such as farms and ranches are SERIOUSLY committed to running the simplest and easiest to diagnose and repair machinery we can put our hands on. That’s our cheapest option, by a factor of three or four, if we have to pay close attention to our money.
You can maintain a ten year or twenty year old Ford or Chevy truck while running the hell out of it for less than half what it costs you in depreciation alone, never mind finance costs, taxes, full coverage insurance, etc, to drive a new one….
And there are enough of them out there that you can ALMOST always get any part for one of them overnight at your local NAPA store……. and there are enough mechanics out there that were dealership trained but now self employed to get them fixed for fifty bucks an hour instead of the hundred buck plus dealer rate…. and as a rule, you can simply ask around, and describe the symptoms of your truck problem, and most of the time, you can just buy the part and install it yourself, or have your hired hand or a local guy to do it for say thirty bucks an hour……… that’s still over sixty thousand in his back yard if he stays busy…. and he can, if he wants to.
Yes, there’s a day coming when you can do the same with your older electric car or truck……… but that day is at least fifteen or twenty years down the road.Most of the ones sold this year will be scrapped early because nobody will be able afford to take them to a dealer, who in any case most likely won’t have anybody on hand who knows shit from apple butter about ten to twenty year old LEGACY computer systems, or parts, because the sales volume was too low to bother keeping them on hand past five or six years.A dealer who sold only a few dozen of the early models will never HAVE a mechanic that’s truly experienced on them…….. unless they are lemons and need constant repairs.
The REAL reason Chevy dealers don’t want BOLTS on their lots is that they are going to be a money losing pain in the ass until the volume gets up to the point they can afford to train their mechanics on them, and stock parts for them. Each local dealer is waiting for OTHER dealers to get the volume up.
As a matter of fact, even conventional new cars, as bad as they are in some instances, are so reliable, most of them, that nobody ever REALLY learns how to work on low volume models…… because by the time they give REAL trouble,frequently, they’re old, and the design has been changed out twice or three times, in ten or fifteen years….. and by then, the car is not WORTH enough to spend serious money on it trying to fix a problem the mechanic has NEVER encountered.
This is all the reason in the world you need to steer clear of low volume cars, no matter what make they may be, if money matters to you. The lower the volume, the higher the likelihood of excessively high priced parts and labor, and the higher the likelihood of neither the part nor the labor being readily available. You won’t LIKELY run into this unknown territory problem if you stick to high volume models.
Nevertheless
I ran into a situation with a Ford F250 trucks recently less than twenty years old where a friend of mine simply could NOT buy a critical part new from Ford…… or find that part in a wrecking yard.. After a few long sessions on the net, I finally found what he needed from a guy who makes a business of buying up odd parts from dealerships going out of business. He had three…… suggested we better buy a spare… because once the other two were gone, there wouldn’t BE another spare anywhere, to his knowledge. We bought it.
This two hundred dollar part unless it was replaced meant that a nice low mileage ten thousand dollar plus truck would never move again under it’s own power, unless we could find a complete new transmission for it….. the wrecking yards from New York to Florida all laughed at us for asking.
The rancher has all the reason in the world to steer clear of electric trucks for the next ten years or so….. unless he buys one as a status symbol for his wife or kid, or unless he’s prosperous enough a five or ten thousand dollar repair bill doesn’t mean anything to him…… or if he can eat the loss if he has to sell his new electric truck for peanuts because the manufacturer goes broke, and nobody has parts at all, excepting maybe custom made parts.
But his teenage son will want one worse than sex, once he sees it blow a couple of hot rod cars away in a drag race.
I believe in the FUTURE of electric cars, but I wouldn’t buy one today, no way in hell, unless I was planning on getting rid of it before it’s out of warranty.
Thank Sky Daddy for all the people who have cash to burn for buying them, it means diesel and gasoline will be cheaper for me!And when they really start selling, there may be a few years when the prices of old conventional cars and trucks crash. Even better, for me.
One more car and one more truck will outlast ME. And I drive less every year. My carbon footprint isn’t all that big, in relation to what I produce, even as a retiree.
(DITTO a number of conventional vehicles of course. But there are enough of them around to know which ones are lemons. )
I’m afraid you are a tad too optimistic about the need for mechanics capable of working on electric vehicles.
My point was that it won’t be necessary since EV electric motors and drive trains are now designed to last a million miles, literally!
WARNING THIS COMMENT IS A
CRABBY OLD FART RANT.
I remember very well reading a sci fi story about astronauts and space ships back when I was a kid about all the hundreds of parts that are not supposed to EVER FAIL in various electrical and electronic gadgets… that are or were routinely stocked in repair shops.
Of course these days, we don’t repair tv’s, phones, vacuum cleaners, radios, washing machines, or battery powered tools…. We mostly just toss them and get new ones.
I do believe that the general public, which is abysmally ignorant of all things mechanical or electronic or electrical, will buy electric cars and trucks in preference to conventional ice vehicles once such vehicles are cheaper to own for the first four or five years….. when they are typically under warranty anyway……. and once they see their friends, neighbors, and coworkers driving ( or not, just riding) in them.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/
But anybody who thinks they are going to be trouble free has another think coming.
I have been dealing with various pieces of equipment for the last fifty years that can only be repaired or serviced by dealers. Fortunately hardly any of this stuff , other than appliances, ever belonged to me, but rather to various employers and customers. The dealer expects to make his money on service.
Even if an update comes thru over the air, there’s no reason to think it will always be free, and shit does break.
My local NAPA store keeps at least fifty automotive computers on hand, and has overnight access to hundreds more.
Will electric cars be more reliable and less costly to own and run than conventional cars?
Yes, and maybe even today, already, in some cases, if the owner is incapable of performing any of his own repairs and maintenance.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/
But I can drive an older conventional car, such as my Buick, a hundred thousand miles, working on it myself, for a quarter of what the depreciation alone is apt to cost me for a new vehicle, electric or conventional. This does not include taxes, registration, insurance, tires, etc, which are going to be needed in EITHER car.
This is why the RANCHER mentioned up thread is not interested in an electric pickup truck from a new and unproven manufacturer. He may have been burnt already as the result of spending fifty grand or more on a new make of tractor that failed to make the grade, along with the dealership that sold it to him, leaving him with a couple of thousand dollars worth of scrap metal and the debt still to be paid.
That has happened to at least two of my neighbors. They bought MONTANA tractors. You can’t give one away locally, other than to the scrap metal man.
I’m not knocking electric cars and trucks, I firmly believe they are the FUTURE, starting now.
But let’s not get carried away like Trump voters, believing all we have to do to live happily ever after is vote for HIM… or buy an ELECTRIC car or truck.
If I were GOD, any and everything sold in the mass market with a big price tag on it would be delivered with a disk or thumb drive with the complete electronic architecture on it, and the trouble shooting trees and diagrams included, by law.
The manufacturers could make up for the loss of service revenue by charging more up front.
That way the last five or six washers, refrigerators, and dryers I have hauled to the scrap yard would still be in service…… but paying somebody to trouble shoot them and stick a small part in them is so expensive I just get a new one……. there’s no way I can justify taking the time to learn all about the circuits in this sort of equipment, but I could usually fix these appliances if I had the troubleshooting diagrams, using nothing more than a good meter, which I have.
This is about making things last, rather than junking stuff that’s still ninety nine percent good, for new stuff.
I’m just ranting of course.
It’s not EV’s, it’s everything. The modern ICE car is a rolling multi-computer system with serial bus wiring throughout the car and sensors all over the place. EV’s may actually be simpler since they don’t have to monitor fuel, exhaust and engine systems.
We are stuck with rolling computers no matter what we have.
As far as mechanical complexity goes the ICE wins hands down and is getting more complex by the year.
Nothing is trouble free but some things are more reliable than others.
On why there are so many car computers on the shelf at a supposedly ‘expert’ dealership.
My Cheap er Jeep would not start and the key light was showing. The dealer towed it, changed the computer and I picked it up. Rinse, repeat – 4 computers, including one they blew up, plus having to solder a hole in the air conditioning pipe where they had managed to touch it with a spanner while connecting or disconnecting the battery. Finally they listened to me about the key warning light and changed the key sensor. The car now worked.
As far as all the software goes, most commercial kit has it burned into programmable controllers and you can’t change it without changing the controller that you can’t change without changing the board. Besides, manufacturers do not want people fiddling since they will sue the company if anything goes wrong despite it being due to their ill informed intervention. As for the Jeep I managed to download the shop manual from Canada and so was able to put right several things the ‘expert’ dealer had not or made worse. I won’t mention the fake fuel saving adjustment I forced them to remove and pay me back or items stolen by their monkeys.
You will find that many things can be fixed in Mexico that would just get thrown away in the USA. It is the public culture that is broken in the USA not just manufacturers. The use and dispose belief that precludes repair, reuse and recycling.
NAOM
Yep, have heard stories of expensive computers being changed by dealers. Then the problem was still there. The local mechanic changed a sensor and fixed the problem.
Dealers make money through “repairs”.
“Of course they will be calling themselves programmers or electronics technicians, rather than grease monkeys. ”
Any software work and maintenance will be done by the manufacturer. NOBODY is going to let anyone else tamper with an AI and self driving because risk. The main tasks will be the damaged suspension, brakes, bodywork etc.
NAOM
Any software work and maintenance will be done by the manufacturer.
Yep! over the air software updates…
CARS AND COAL HELP DRIVE ‘STRONG’ CO2 RISE IN 2018
“The rise in emissions in 2017 could be seen as a one-off, but the growth rate in 2018 is even higher, and it is becoming crystal clear the world is so far failing in its duty to steer onto a course consistent with the goals set out in the Paris Agreement in 2015.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46447459
Meanwhile, Daily CO2
April 30, 2019: 414.52 ppm
April 30, 2018: 409.26 ppm
Hey Doug, good to see you here!
Yeah, things on the third planet from our little star ain’t doin all that great!
Too bad the minions of the FF overlords on this damp little rock just don’t appreciate the wonders of our little home, let alone the beauty and the vastness of our universe.
Of course there are a few exceptions to the general rule such as the people who join forces to do things like this!
https://www.ted.com/talks/sheperd_doeleman_inside_the_black_hole_image_that_made_history?language=en#t-28898
Cheers!
“Yeah, things on the third planet from our little star ain’t doin all that great!”
Matter of perspective. How else to get rid of that pesky super-ape? 🙂
Doug, you had me freaked out there for a minute.
That CO2 growth of 5ppm is a 140 mile trainwreck in progress.
The longer term data, and other points this year show annual growth in 2-3 ppm range.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html
Still a train wreck, but more like 90 mph (and the bridge is gone).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLzrzNa6zQA
Are Electric Vehicles at a Tipping Point?
MIT Club of Northern California
Published on Mar 16, 2018
Electric vehicles are set to overcome historic and significant hurdles: sticker price, range anxiety and limited model options. Annual sales are forecasted to jump from 1% today to 25% in 2030 and cross 50% by 2040. Nearly every major car maker has announced new models for EVs. By 2020, there will be 44 models of EVs available in North America.
Methinks they underestimate the autonomous driving capability taking over most urban and dense town areas. Between 2025 and 2030 the ICE should diminish and the number of new cars needed drop. Those two factors combined with a push toward decarbonization will be the death knell of ICE.
The tar baby set will be quite surprised ( in a negative way) when their vehicles lose value so fast they can’t even get out of the loans. Moving stranded assets.
I wonder what high mpg type cars and trucks will be produced to stave off the 5X advantage of EV’s.
The engines now are being made extremely complex to try and squeeze the last few mpg and still have good power. Transmissions too have gotten too complex and unreliable.
The EV drivetrain is basically simple. Tough to compete with simplicity that has inherent high efficiency and no emissions. The low CG is another advantage.
Unexpected future boost of methane possible from Arctic permafrost
New NASA-funded research has discovered that Arctic permafrost’s expected gradual thawing and the associated release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere may actually be sped up by instances of a relatively little known process called abrupt thawing. Abrupt thawing takes place under a certain type of Arctic lake, known as a thermokarst lake that forms as permafrost thaws.
The impact on the climate may mean an influx of permafrost-derived methane into the atmosphere in the mid-21st century, which is not currently accounted for in climate projections.
Using a combination of computer models and field measurements, Walter Anthony and an international team of U.S. and German researchers found that abrupt thawing more than doubles previous estimates of permafrost-derived greenhouse warming. They found that the abrupt thaw process increases the release of ancient carbon stored in the soil 125 to 190 percent compared to gradual thawing alone. What’s more, they found that in future warming scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, abrupt thawing was as important under the moderate reduction of emissions scenario as it was under the extreme business-as-usual scenario. This means that even in the scenario where humans reduced their global carbon emissions, large methane releases from abrupt thawing are still likely to occur.
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost/
Enjoy the warmth.
Sunday Fun Time – Top Gear Shootout- M3 vs M3 – State of the Boy Racer Arts – Hydrocarbon Burner vs electric.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSRWKxytW40
The anti-threshold 4 wheel drifting trail is counterproductive. Destroys tires and burns precious Laptime. Looks like the Sour Taste is gone from the Lawsuit over the review of the original Model S.
In a world of Camry’s, mini-vans and soccer moms, I think they miss the point. But it was fun at least.
BTW the Tesla Model 3 has 130 mpge overall. The BMW 3 four cylinder has 30 mpg and the six cylinder has 25 mpg.
Been a long time since my muscle car and big car days. Talk about burning tires and gasoline. 🙂
Would like to see the Tesla 3 vs. BMW 3 on snow and ice.
Even more Sunday Fun Time. 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbdz4ofYKWA
2019 Paris E-Prix (Season 5 – Race 8) – Full Race
With tRump screwing up the China talks, the market could be dicy tomorrow—
We shall see.
(I guess there is a reason he has been bankrupt 6 times)
Looks like the oily side is having a discussion on EV’s with the typical anti-aircraft spin thrown in.
I guess we could eliminate all aircraft, but fuel use would not fall.
Four billion passengers in 2017.
The fact is that global air travel is growing by about 7 percent a year. Not going away anytime soon.
It will take global recession and peak oil to dent air travel. Of course that would dent about everything.
If things get tough, in addition to giving up airplanes, we could stop growing marijuana indoors-
“Growers account for 4% of Denver’s electricity consumption.”
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/marijuana-prices-have-collapsed-forcing-growers-to-focus-on-energy-efficie/553287/
What an incredible waste of energy. Marijuana is one of the easiest plants to grow. Even some 15 year stupid kid in NJ could grow a good 10 ft plant without any previous plant growing experience. Without hardly even trying. I know it for sure. I did it.
No need to spend even 1 kwh on the nations crop.
I wonder if people fly around to marijuana conventions?
Maybe fly to a marijuana growing destination and smoke some indoor grown weed.
Smart, smart.
With legalization, even the clueless indoor grower isn’t going to make a profit.
Hopefully this helps on energy issues.
If things get tough, in addition to giving up airplanes, we could stop growing marijuana indoors-
“Growers account for 4% of Denver’s electricity consumption.”
There is no reason marijuana growers can’t produce their own 100% renewable power. I bet that will happen more and more. The growers will be hooked up to smart microgrids and will even provide excess power to their communities. They will also fly in electric planes. VTOL electric aircraft won’t need roads or airports.
San Francisco cannabis grower using 100% renewable energy
https://mjbizdaily.com/san-francisco-cannabis-grower-using-100-renewable-energy/
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/solar-energy-and-its-future-in-the-cannabis-market-aurora-cannabis-solar-integrated-roofing-corporation-otc-sirc-canadian-solar-inc-aphria-inc-2018-10-
Solar Energy and its future in the Cannabis Market; Aurora Cannabis, Solar Integrated Roofing Corporation SIRC, Canadian Solar Inc., Aphria Inc.
https://www.cannabistech.com/articles/cannabis-cultivation-and-solar-improving-energy-efficiency-in-the-industry/
Cannabis Cultivation And Solar: Improving Energy Efficiency In The Industry
LOL! What next?! Are you going to suggest we have to give up refrigeration and cold beer?!
BTW, I think we are going to be growing our plant based Impossible burgers indoors as well with solar and LEDs. think of all the energy, water, resources that won’t be needed and all the waste that will not produced if we stop eating, pigs, cows and chickens.
Bring on the renewable powered indoor agricultural revolution, the sooner the better!
Cheers!
One thing that may hold back the switch to solar is the banks’ unwillingness to deal with the cannabis industry due to threats at federal level. Could make the financing of a large solar roof difficult.
NAOM
The hypocrisy of some elements of the pro cannabis crowd is interesting.
A growing problem: Lightening the carbon footprint of cannabis farms
https://phys.org/news/2017-10-problem-carbon-footprint-cannabis-farms.html
Canada’s Keen on Cannabis, But this Green Rush isn’t so Green
https://medium.com/asparagus-magazine/canada-cannabis-marijuana-environmental-footprint-5b356acedb5
FWIW, I prefer to grow everything outdoors.
Hey GF,
Do me (yourself) a favor and quit taking the anti-flying comments so personally.
I’m not going to come confiscate your plane (although Greta might).
This conversation is meant to be food for thought, not some personal threat.
Enjoy it while you can.
Not only don’t you make any sense but you have essentially turned into a troll. Bye.
Future plane concepts with high efficiency systems.
https://www1.grc.nasa.gov/aeronautics/hep/airplane-concepts/
For the moment, it is possible to watch Thin Ice for free and definitely worth watching. Simon Lamb is one of my professors here at Victoria University Wellington. Best watched with a group of family or friends. https://thiniceclimate.org/
https://vimeo.com/323579276
My church’s movie club has shown Climate Hustle previously, I’d say that one’s worth adding to the watch list. Another one I remember having a special church screening was Not Evil Just Wrong but I didn’t see it.
A denialist troll with denialist films.
NAOM
“According to Ars Technica, the film offers “a fast-paced, uninterrupted delivery of superficial and false claims about climate science”.[2]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Hustle
Zabzaz- that is so funny. To think that people still go Church! Come on, nobodies that foolish- to cede their mental autonomy to medieval ideology. Get real.
Actually Climate Change denial like that in Climate Hustle is a form of lying. Lying is considered a sin. Lying about Climate Change is evil! Hope all you hypocritical Christians end up being right about your deity and what happens to unrepentant sinners, May you all burn in hell for all eternity for your sins!
Then again, maybe you are just another spam bot or a troll in which case there is a special place in hell for you! God personally told me that people like you are not welcome in heaven!
You will be left behind during the rapture!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zly_tL5mMc8
Babylon 5 Londo sets a trap for Refa
Cheers!
In the hour when the Holy one, blessed be He, created the first person, God showed him the trees in the Garden of Eden, and said to him:
“See My works, how fine they are; Now all that I have created, I created for your benefit. Think upon this and do not corrupt and destroy My world, For if you destroy it, there is no one to restore it after you.”
Ecclesiastes Rabbah 7:28
“do not corrupt and destroy My world”
Should be printed up loud and bold wherever these so called Christians are destroying.
NAOM
Some interesting reading on the Methane Monster.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/01/12/global-warming-stirs-the-methane-monster/
https://robertscribbler.com/tag/arctic-methane-monster/
Here’s something I stumbled across that’s well worth listening to while you’re getting the dishes done or whatever.
This particular podcast is about brick. The other forty nine podcasts are linked to this one, all of them together described as fifty inventions that changed the world.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csz2w8
We all know why industrial civilization and the machine age cannot continue, why it is an impossible dream.
As the wetlands disappear, the land and ocean is poisoned, the globe is overheated and the fossil fuel system is allowed to run amok over the planet to feed the growing maw of humanities desires, countless animals and plants are being tortured, killed and pushed to the brink of existence, some beyond. The very air has been changed as a side effect of the machine age, while psychopathic mentalities are considering purposeful manipulation of the atmosphere on a global scale.
Why manipulate the atmosphere? Simply to continue the culture of machines and continue the system of life degradation on the planet. Here are some prognostications on this dream (death) culture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOFRbjjjwCE&t=260s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOCpo10zQlM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiQ874ZuIno
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiZ8nV7_g_Y
Now the Band-Aid dreamers think that simply by replacing energy infrastructure with “renewable” energy systems and changing what the industrial complex produces will fix climate and halt eco-destruction.
When the solar powered machines are pumping out 500,000 PV panels a day and who knows how many batteries, we will have arrived at our destination world. All those panels will be delivered by electric autonomous drone aircraft right to the place of use. Roads will be a thing of the past, so don’t build too many EV’s. Conveyor belts, drones and autonomous aircraft will move everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiZ8nV7_g_Y
Too heavy, build it right there from components, materials and bots delivered right to the spot or 3D print it locally.
Of course by the time any of this really comes to pass the world is pretty much trashed and toast. So enjoy the ride while you get that very warm feeling.
We all know why industrial civilization and the machine age cannot continue, why it is an impossible dream.
Well all of us except the people who are behind the production of those youtube videos you posted.
Also all the people who live in the industrialized west, North America and Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Russia… Everyone who lives in the Middle East, also Egypt, Northern Africa, the rest of Africa. The people who live in Asia, China, India, Pakistan, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc… Places like the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, the rest of the South Pacific. All the people who live in South America, especially places like Brazil, Argentina, Chile, etc. And let’s not forget all of Central America! Etc… etc… etc…
You know, just to name a few… 😉
So other than about 99.99% of the entire population of the world, everyone else certainly knows why industrial civilization and the machine age cannot continue, and why it is an impossible dream.
Now, our best science is telling us that we might have about a decade or so to turn this ship around. I’m sure since we all know the truth, it shouldn’t be such a big deal to convince the other 99.99% of humanity to come around to accepting reality. Maybe we can start by writing a letter to the Turkish authorities in charge of planning their airport expansion in Istanbul asking them to shelve the idea, What do say?! I’ll even write the letter. I don’t speak Turkish, but Google translate has come a long way. Do you think I could get the Petroleum guys from this site to sign it?!
While I’m at it, I could translate it to Russian, Chinese and English and cc. Putin, Xi Jinping and Trump!
Cheers!
We should know by now that industrial mechanical civilization is incompatible with life on Earth.
However, civilization is a religion and has to be believed in to continue the destruction, until it can’t. Just look at classical economics and the business paradigm.
Not sure why no one knows this (gospel according to Fred) but it’s quite simple.
A natural system recycles it’s primary materials and runs a balanced circular system to a high degree. If it does not and there is a continuous loss, the natural system reduces and eventually is lost. Waste products are recycled.
A manufacturing system takes materials from nature, removes them without restoration for the most part, converts them to other materials and does not recycle them back into nature. It is a steady loss system to nature providing a gain of lifeless, useless (from a biosphere point of view) products that often depletes/destroys the natural system through waste products that cannot or are not recycled.
Take from nature —–>produce products and energy —-> waste
A linear system, incompatible with the living biosphere and definitely not designed to integrate with it.
I thought most educated people understood this. Mechanical industrial systems eventually destroy the biosphere by their nature.
“Now, our best science is telling us that we might have about a decade or so to turn this ship around. ”
Well, I would say that the averaged science all scientists involved could fully agree upon and then massaged by government has told us that to stop global warming at certain temperatures we have to make drastic changes in our energy system and remove CO2 from the atmosphere within 12 years.
Sounds like a bedtime story to me.
I am not an IPCC Bible toter or believer.
Even if their story were true, it does not stop the many other predicaments were are within. It might slow down some, but shifting off fossil fuels is not a panacea for restoring the biosphere and stopping the destruction.
A different version of BAU is still a dead end.
Not that we are even keeping up with earlier IPCC driven commitments.
Well, I would say that the averaged science all scientists involved could fully agree upon and then massaged by government has told us that to stop global warming at certain temperatures we have to make drastic changes in our energy system and remove CO2 from the atmosphere within 12 years.
The energy system would be the easy part! The hard part is changing the underlying economic. political and social systems the world over, in some sort of orderly fashion. Students of history tell us that even collapse of civilization can take a while. Collapse of the Roman Empire took a couple of hundred years.
Though the wild card today, may be rapid ecological collapse. The Romans didn’t have to deal with that.
For the record, I’m not exactly as much of an IPCC Bible toting believer as you seem to be taking me for. It’s just that replying to every comment with a full nuanced dissertation, takes a lot more of an effort than using readily available off the shelf memes.
Fred, you know deep down that these technological improvements are not a real solution. They are steps toward leaving the horrid system that has caused all this to happen.
If humans survive their own traps, they need to make very wise decisions and learn to let the gadget age go. In general it is no good for us anyway. Studies have shown this is the loneliest culture despite all it’s connectivity. It is also one that produces, by design, a lot of pain and lies.
We have cured specific illnesses, created and enhanced others, increased mental illness and are moving toward a very sick and twisted dark age of uber psychopathic control. Halfway in the door now in many areas.
The side effects are a wrecked, dying world that will more cause massive die-off as it continues.
We have cured nothing. We have made nothing better. It’s a chimera with a hell of a payback.
Or we can all just keep our heads in the sand and keep the blinders on and continue to be surprised at the results that occasionally penetrate the mental fog.
Greta wants honesty, well I just spoke some of it.
The curtain falls and the mankind behind it is revealed in all his gory glory.
“But man, proud man,
Dress’d in a little brief authority,
Most ignorant of what he’s most assur’d—
His glassy essence—like an angry ape
Plays such fantastic tricks before high heaven
As makes the angels weep; who, with our spleens,
Would all themselves laugh mortal.”
Bill S.
For those interested in PV, here is the PHOTOVOLTAICS REPORT by Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy
Systems, ISE. Published 14 March 2019.
Photovoltaics is a fast growing market: The Compound Annual Growth
Rate (CAGR) of PV installations was 24% between year 2010 to 2017.
Concerning PV module production in 2017, China&Taiwan hold the lead
with a share of 70%, followed by Rest of Asia-Pacific & Central Asia
(ROAP/CA) with 14.8%. Europe contributed with a share of 3.1%
(compared to 4% in 2016); USA/CAN contributed 3.7%.
In 2017, Europe’s contribution to the total cumulative PV installations
amounted to 28% (compared to 33% in 2016). In contrast, installations in
China accounted for 32% (compared to 26% in 2016).
Si-wafer based PV technology accounted for about 95% of the total
production in 2017. The share of multi-crystalline technology is now
about 62% of total production.
In 2017, the market share of all thin film technologies amounted to
about 5% of the total annual production.
https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
U.N. Report Finds 1 Million Species At Risk of Extinction
A landmark report finds species are being pushed to the brink of extinction at a rate ‘tens to hundreds of times higher than it has been, on average, over the last 10 million years.’
The report found that more than 40% of amphibians, 33% of coral reefs and over one-third of all marine species are threatened with extinction.
Three-quarters of land environments and two-thirds of marine environments have been “significantly” altered by humans, according to the report.
“Ecosystems, species, wild populations, local varieties and breeds of domesticated plants and animals are shrinking, deteriorating or vanishing. The essential, interconnected web of life on Earth is getting smaller and increasingly frayed,” said Josef Settele, who co-chaired the assessment. “This loss is a direct result of human activity and constitutes a direct threat to human well-being in all regions of the world.”
While the report’s findings predict a dismal future, Watson said there is still time to make a difference if work begins now. It would require a “fundamental, system-wide reorganization across technological, economic and social factors, including paradigms, goals and values,” he said.
https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2019-05-06/un-report-finds-1-million-species-at-risk-of-extinction
We have a new global tally of the insect apocalypse. It’s alarming.
Insects are the most abundant animals on planet Earth. If you were to put them all together into one creepy-crawly mass, they’d outweigh all humanity by a factor of 17.
Insects outweigh all the fish in the oceans and all the livestock munching grass on land. Their abundance, variety (there could be as many as 30 million species), and ubiquity mean insects play a foundational role in food webs and ecosystems: from the bees that pollinate the flowers of food crops like almonds to the termites that recycle dead trees in forests.
In October, a study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science documented that between 1976 and 2013, the number of invertebrates (like insects, spiders, and centipedes) in the Luquillo rainforest in Puerto Rico caught in survey nets plummeted by a factor of four or eight. When measured by the number caught in sticky traps, invertebrates declined by a factor of 60. And that loss of insects coincided with losses of birds, lizards, and frogs. “The food web appears to have been obliterated from the bottom,” the Washington Post’s Ben Guarino reported on the study.
The repercussions this will have for the planet’s ecosystems are catastrophic to say the least, as insects are at the structural and functional base of many of the world’s ecosystems since their rise at the end of the Devonian period, almost 400 million years ago.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/2/11/18220082/insects-extinction-bological-conservation
Hi GF,
I understand the implications of this extremely bad news about insect populations crashing, but I didn’t realize until now that it’s happening so extraordinarily fast.
It’s not so hard to understand why this might be happening in farm country, or urban or suburban areas, where some key species are being wiped out by chemicals or habitat loss, directly or indirectly. A given species might be a critical part of the food supply for a dozen MORE species, all of which might perish without that one source of food, etc.
But I’m having a hard time trying to imagine why the collapse would be so fast and sudden in a tropical rainforest, which presumably has not been seriously disturbed by farmers or developers, etc, unless the link fails to mention this interference in this particular location.
Any thing you can offer by way of explanation will be greatly appreciated.
OFM, I’m on the road at the moment and don’t have the links handy but the reason the crash is so fast even in a relatively untouched tropical rainforest is because insects are highly susceptible to even a few degrees of warming. It wipes them out and when that happens there goes the foundation of the entire food web. Birds, frogs, lizards, small mammals, bigger mammal predators, etc… you get the idea. It is a death sentence to the entire ecosystem. Even the plants are eventually affected. This is an event from which there is no recovery. I can give you links to field research documenting this. It is happening rigjt now!
OFM,
We do not really understand how insects interact with the rest of the biosphere.
Temperature change is one direct factor, which may also effect their food supply (lower down the food chain). It does not take many links to be broken to work upward with devastating speed, since they live at a faster rate than we do and are probably not very resilient.
I assume that insects were already disturbed and often operating near or past their overshoot populations. Once things change in the food supply that can cause a tumble in population.
BTW, as an anecdote, I just took a long walk through my local area on dirt roads in forested areas. Some of these areas are very wet and I was always pummeled by lots of flying pests until lately. Not one today, 65F partly sunny, no wind. Not one flying insect on the whole walk.
The only place I saw any flying insects was on my property, a few pollinators and one fly. Only needed one handful of fingers to count them.
I grow a lot of wildflowers hoping to provide enough food and places to live for at least some insects.
A green and flowerful cemetery is the land.
Thanks, GF, Fred,
I’m reasonably up to date in some ways, but I have never formally studied entomology, just had some incidental coverage of the field in my other course work. Got lots of biology credits, but they pertain mostly to animals and plants, understandable, as I majored in ag. And those were back in the dark ages, mostly.
I do understand that insect populations, and indeed plant populations as well in many cases, are, or can be, extremely susceptible to even minor changes in the average temperature.
And I get it, in terms of domino effects, with one species crashing leading to dozens more crashing, one after another, because all the species interact in countless ways … as GF points out, in lots more ways we DON’T understand than in ways that we do.
When I pick up a modern university level biology text book, it reads almost like science fiction, compared to what was in texts back in the sixties……. freshmen today are studying interactions and relationships between various species that tenured professors hadn’t a clue about back then.
I have often noted that various insects I see a few hundred feet downhill from the house are not to be seen here AT the house, and some that are common another thousand feet up the mountain side are only to be found there and further up, etc. The temperature is not THAT different, but it’s enough that the plants and insects are noticeably different within a five or ten minute walk up or downhill, if you look closely.
And even though the pesticide regulations are far tougher than they were decades back, and WAY less farming is being done in the immediate area these days, we have experienced a similar crash in insect populations.
Thirty or forty years ago, an outside light would be simply SWARMING with various beetles and moths. Now it’s the same as GF’s walk in the woods, the insects are simply GONE, for the most part, except some pest species such as fruit flies, aphids, cockroaches, etc.
I have had a porch light on since dark, and there’s not a single moth or beetle buzzing around it.
I can’t even remember the last time I saw a bat……. maybe a couple of years ago?
But the populations of small mammals such as rabbits, squirrels, chipmunks, groundhogs, etc, are growing, ditto their predators, mainly hawks, owls, the occasional fox, snakes, and coyotes, which were unknown locally only twenty years ago. They’re quite common now.
And we have LOTS of whitetail deer, WAY too many in fact, in areas that are all forest, but with so much open and edge habitat in the immediate area, they don’t wipe out little sapling trees, etc, so they don’t seem to be doing any harm……. except to fruit trees and gardens.
We have more turkeys than ever, and black bears are no longer a rarity. I guess the turkeys are primarily vegetarians, lol, because I sure as hell don’t see very many insects for them to feed on.
So the typical person here, based on his own observations of these larger species, concludes that environmental conditions are actually improving…….. even as the underpinning is fast melting away.
I don’t have to be an entomologist to understand that when a given plant depends on a given pollinator, that plant disappears along with its pollinator…. and half a dozen species of insects that feed on it in part or in whole will crash…… and that the hundred other species dependent on this half a dozen in whole or in part may crash as well……. with the destruction spreading like ripples in water.
Here the bird populations are decreased, wild turkeys disappeared, no bears in over two years and few before that, snakes gone, frogs most species gone and only a few of one species heard this year, the last owl left, hawks are low in number and mostly just pass through.
Fish populations are way down.
Only a few deer left and I saw my first case of wasting disease just a few days ago.
No increase in rabbits here or other wild mammals, in fact they have lessened over the last decade. Only a couple of bats last summer, will see if any are around this year.
Here it is a mix of factors. I travel 15 to 20 miles away and some populations improve but still the flying bugs are very low in number.
OFM, Here’s a couple links to start:
From the MSM:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/13/heatwaves-wipe-out-male-insect-fertility-beetles-study
Heatwaves can ‘wipe out’ male insect fertility
Study of beetles could explain global decline – and also be a warning to humankind
Heatwaves severely damage the fertility of male beetles and consecutive hot spells leave them virtually sterilised, according to research.
Global warming is making heatwaves more common and wildlife is being annihilated, and the study may reveal a way in which these two trends are linked. The scientists behind the findings said there could also be some relevance for humans: the sperm counts of western men have halved in the last 40 years.
Researchers studied beetles because their 400,000 species represent about a quarter of all known species. Insect populations are plunging worldwide as temperatures rise, falling by about 80% in 30 years in Puerto Rico’s rainforest and by 75% in German nature reserves.
Insects are such an integral part of life, as pollinators and prey, that scientists say their decline could lead to “ecological Armageddon”. Little is known about the precise causes of the decline, though climate change, habitat destruction and global use of pesticides are considered probable factors.
The research, published in the Nature Communications journal, found that exposing beetles to a five-day heatwave in the laboratory reduced sperm production by three-quarters; females were unaffected.
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2435.13277
Differential effects of climate warming on reproduction and functional responses on insects in the fourth trophic level
Abstract
1.Understanding the effects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) on species interactions is essential for predicting community responses to climate change. However, while effects of AGW on resource–consumer interactions at the first and second trophic level have been well studied, little is known about effects on interactions at higher trophic levels at the terminal end of food chains (e.g. in the third and fourth trophic levels).
2.Here, we examined the effects of temperature variability by simulating heatwaves on functional responses of two species at the fourth trophic level (hyperparasitoids) that parasitize host species at the third trophic level (parasitoid cocoons).
3.We found that host cocoons developed faster under simulated heatwave conditions, decreasing the temporal window of susceptibility of the host cocoons to parasitism by the two hyperparasitoids, and consequently parasitism declined with temperature. However, the effects of a simulated heatwave markedly differed among the two hyperparasitoid species; temperature and host quality had a much stronger effect on early reproduction in the less fecund hyperparasitoid Gelis agilis, than in the more fecund species Acrolyta nens.
4. Our results suggest that exposure to heatwaves, that are expected to increase in frequency, will affect the ability of species at higher trophic levels to exploit transient resources whose suitability is temperature‐dependent. In turn, the observed effects of AGW on the functional responses of the hyperparasitoids may disrupt trophic interactions and have profound impact on population dynamics and ecological processes.
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/44/E10397
Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web
Significance
Arthropods, invertebrates including insects that have external skeletons, are declining at an alarming rate. While the tropics harbor the majority of arthropod species, little is known about trends in their abundance. We compared arthropod biomass in Puerto Rico’s Luquillo rainforest with data taken during the 1970s and found that biomass had fallen 10 to 60 times. Our analyses revealed synchronous declines in the lizards, frogs, and birds that eat arthropods. Over the past 30 years, forest temperatures have risen 2.0 °C, and our study indicates that climate warming is the driving force behind the collapse of the forest’s food web. If supported by further research, the impact of climate change on tropical ecosystems may be much greater than currently anticipated.
Abstract
A number of studies indicate that tropical arthropods should be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. If these predictions are realized, climate warming may have a more profound impact on the functioning and diversity of tropical forests than currently anticipated. Although arthropods comprise over two-thirds of terrestrial species, information on their abundance and extinction rates in tropical habitats is severely limited. Here we analyze data on arthropod and insectivore abundances taken between 1976 and 2012 at two midelevation habitats in Puerto Rico’s Luquillo rainforest. During this time, mean maximum temperatures have risen by 2.0 °C. Using the same study area and methods employed by Lister in the 1970s, we discovered that the dry weight biomass of arthropods captured in sweep samples had declined 4 to 8 times, and 30 to 60 times in sticky traps. Analysis of long-term data on canopy arthropods and walking sticks taken as part of the Luquillo Long-Term Ecological Research program revealed sustained declines in abundance over two decades, as well as negative regressions of abundance on mean maximum temperatures. We also document parallel decreases in Luquillo’s insectivorous lizards, frogs, and birds. While El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences the abundance of forest arthropods, climate warming is the major driver of reductions in arthropod abundance, indirectly precipitating a bottom-up trophic cascade and consequent collapse of the forest food web.
Elsewhere in the world – or at least in the local area of Nevada, we are up to our armpits in wildflowers and butterflies, stuff like desert dandelions and monarch butterflies. It is lovely.
That’s great, after the huge losses in the past.
http://www.eeb.cornell.edu/agrawal/2019/01/30/monarch-population-size-over-winter-2018-2019-announced-and-its-good-news/
Great! I know a bunch of people in the Miami area that are creating butterfly gardens.
.
I wished the fruit flies that come into my house would go extinct. Lots of other nasty bugs out in the summer that sometimes get in also. Fine by me if they all went extinct.
If you are not just trolling with the intent of pissing people off, then you are too fucking stupid to be called a moron! Not to mention it would be insulting to morons!
.
Hi Fred,
Larry B’s problem may be ignorance rather than stupidity.
The one greatest failing of highly knowledgeable people such as yourself, when it comes to understanding HUMANITY, PEOPLE, is that your kind virtually always grossly overestimates how much Joe and Suzy Sixpack and their kids know about the real world, as opposed to tv, video games , and contact sports.
Just yesterday, I ran into an acquaintance who is suddenly as skinny as a starving Indian peasant, his skin stretched like parchment over his head, and as gently as possible asked him if his doctor had told him to ditch the cigarettes. ( I had several discussions with him about smoking and drinking over the years, trying to point out the consequences thereof, to no avail of course. He has had asthma for as long as I have known him. )
So he raised his shirt sleeve and showed me the nicotine patch.
The man who runs the store pipes up and says cigarettes don’t hurt you, his Daddy lived to be ninety three, and smoked till the day he died, and he once knew somebody who got lung cancer who did not smoke. Case closed, antismoking campaigns are just more libtard attempts to take over and control our lives.
His son just died at fifty three, overweight, under exercised, and smoking……. sudden heart attack, middle of the night.
I was as nice as possible about it, knowing this, but I repeated the truth…… that smoking makes you about eight times as likely to get lung cancer, twice as likely to have heart trouble, etc…… but that smoking is not the ONLY cause of these problems….. and that more than a few drunks drive every day for a lifetime without ever killing themselves or anybody else in an auto accident.
His problem is partly denial, partly ignorance, and partly the profit motive. He sells at least fifty packs of cigarettes a day, and the beer truck stops at least once a week. His beer cooler is considerably bigger than his soft drink and milk coolers combined.
It’s highly probable that he made countless positive remarks about cigarettes and beer in front of his boy back when he was growing up…….. and was smoking and drinking in his presence of course. So to him, the fact that HE is still alive, and still smoking and drinking, IS TO HIM all the proof in the world that alcohol and tobacco are safe, excepting that alcohol causes accidents and fights. He readily acknowledges these
last two facts.
And he’s SMARTER than I am too, because I paid him off, three to one, betting on HRC. You should have seen him when I handed him the sixty bucks he won from me.
He thinks Trump is the greatest human alive, now and maybe even back as far as Jeff Davis and Rob Lee…….. that Trump’s a CHRISTIAN, lol.
It’s generally IMPOSSIBLE to over estimate the stupidity and or ignorance of the typical man and woman you meet on the street, individually and collectively.
It’s not so hard to understand why people who owned property and could read and write, in times gone by, believed in laws limiting the right to vote to people who owned property and could read and write!!
Lazy Larry needs a fundraiser for
https://www.amazon.com.mx/Swatters-DanziX-Manual-Control-plagas/dp/B074P72KXB/ref=sr_1_4?__mk_es_MX=%C3%85M%C3%85%C5%BD%C3%95%C3%91&keywords=fly+swatter&qid=1557259664&s=gateway&sr=8-4
NAOM
Hmm—–
Bad news for renewable energy: Capacity addition becomes flat for the first time in 17 years
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/bad-news-for-renewable-energy-capacity-addition-becomes-flat-for-the-first-time-in-17-years/69202562
I knew wind was flat but for PV to level out is a major problem. Still, renewables are growing faster than demand so are displacing fossil fuels. However it could take 100 years at this rate to go all renewable.
Plan B?
Plan B?
Hope that ‘Peak Oil’ kicks in sooner rather than later and that it does so in a big way!
Ah, Fuck it, who are we kidding. There is no Plan A, let alone a Plan B!
Cheers!
Good one Fred.
PLAN A = BAU
PLAN B = try harder and exploit more for BAU
I think the world governments and corporations should have the motto:
BAU or die trying
I wish you weren’t right.
NAOM
Russia dumps all US Treasury and US Dollar holdings ?
(possibly bad info on my part)
Google Russia dumps US treasuries and you will get a shit load of hits, but most of them are from a few months back. It’s not just Russia.
My take is that the rest of the world has grown up to the point that it’s now possible for countries such as Russia, India, China, and several others to put as big a hurting on the US as the US can put on them when it comes to international trade and finance.
Personally I don’t see any reason at all that Russia should have any trouble trading Russian oil to any country with tankers, or transporting it in Russian flagged tankers, in exchange for whatever that country exports that Russia might want…. say machinery from India.
The USA is still more or less the big dog the other dogs are coming on fast even as we get older and feebler.
Sure we can still bully small countries such as Greece and Italy, which are still dependent upon us for markets and for tourist dollars….. but how well have we succeeded in bullying even Mexico, right next door, recently? And how much business are countries such as Brazil doing with China and India, right in our back yard?
We used to have a thing called the Monroe Doctrine. Sure it had to do with our dominating this hemisphere to the detriment of the smaller and less powerful countries of South and Central America………. but how long has it been since anybody here has even heard it MENTIONED?
China is eating our lunch, in terms of volume of trade with key countries such as Venezuela, where the biggest remaining oil fields are located, and buying up farm land by the thousands and tens of thousands of hectares all over the place…… giving them ownership of what is arguably the most critical single resource going forward over the next few generations.
Who needs armies and navies to gain empires when you can simply BUY one, with the cash generated by exporting junk to the USA…. Kruschev was right, in a sense……. except it’s China that’s hanging us with a noose we bought from THEM, in historical terms.
It’s best not to try to make too much LITERAL sense out of the previous paragraph, lol.
But it’s a fact that China is whipping our ass at our supposed own game, predatory capitalism, and putting her winnings into gaining control of one critical resource and industry right after another, thereby gradually displacing us as the country that can build giant dams, super highways, pipelines, air ports, sea ports, canals……. you name it…… in exchange for cash or guaranteed first access to future exports of food, minerals, timber, etc, from the countries where they build these things… and virtually guaranteed first access to these countries as the supplier of imported goods such as appliances, tools, automobiles, industrial machinery, consumer electronics……
As things are going now, if China doesn’t collapse as the result of overshoot, the Chinese will be THE big dog within another two generations at the latest, and probably considerably sooner.
Of course both the USA and China, not to mention the rest of the world, may not survive the next few decades in recognizable form.
It’s still possible that countries such as the USA, and some others that are still relatively well endowed with nature’s one time gifts of minerals, etc, can pull thru the baked in crash headed our way, without reverting back to an eighteenth or nineteenth century economy.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/7/18535194/gm-cruise-self-driving-car-investment-valuation
I have high hopes of living to see pure electric cars sell for even less than an otherwise comparable conventional car, and seeing countless people who watch their money invest in their own solar power system, so they can drive for free, or almost free, in terms of purchased energy. Once such cars are to be seen every day at the local big box store, without even being NOTICED, and one house out of every thirty or forty has solar panels, the electric car biz and home solar biz are going to go straight up, regardless of politics…. and once a few thousand voters in each congressional district come to understand that they have surplus juice to sell to their utility…….the day won’t be that far off that politicians will HAVE to listen to voters who want to sell that surplus, or get voted out.
Change of this sort is mostly independent of politics, because it eventually evolves into a simple bottom line question. MY reddest redneck Trump supporter friend is quite enthusiastic about renewable energy, although he never mentions that topic and politics in the same conversation.
He will be putting up solar panels to supply power to his greenhouse operation, to run the fans and pumps within the next year or two, as soon as he can get the money together for them. Any excess will be diverted into an extra large hot water heater in his house, which is immediately adjacent to the green house, or to his air conditioning, or maybe even into a pure electric car. He already has a Prius.
Any winter time surplus, when he won’t be needing cooling fans, etc, will be fed directly into grow lights, which will up his production on winter days when the sun is low in the sky and the days are short.
If he can find one that’s affordable, he will buy an old time piston steam engine, and fire it with scrap wood, and use it to drive a generator. This will actually work out quite well because ( almost ) all the otherwise wasted combustion heat will be captured and used to heat the greenhouse during the colder months.It will sit idle if he doesn’t need the supplemental space heat. I’m helping him build the necessary super size wood stove, draft controls, and duct work and we will add in the steam engine and generator later, if he can locate one that’s suitable.
This is all about his bottom line, pure and simple.
He will do it, grid intertie or no.
Does he know that Trump lost over a Billion bucks in one decade? Its just one of the many reasons that trump will run and hide upside down in porta-potty rather than share his tax records.
Thanks for the story though. You are spot on- for the vast majority of people its just the bottom line (and security) that counts. Count me among them.
I think he’s all tore up, like a man who loves his woman, and has every reason to believe she is cheating on him right and left and just hanging around because he is providing for her, but is unable to bring himself to actually ADMIT it to himself.
Over the last few months he has gotten to be extremely defensive about politics, and I seldom breach the subject when he is around.
It’s well worth noting that this man has plenty of intellectual horsepower, in respect to technology, day to day business operations, etc.
But he’s like almost everybody else, he believes what he WANTS to believe until literally forced by a ( figurative ) brick upside his head to recognize reality.
He’s as nice a guy as you could ever hope to meet, the kind that volunteers to help old women with their home maintenance, very pleasant company, totally easy going…… except about his politics.
This description may sound like something out of a bad novel, but it’s not at all uncommon to run across people like him. It’s a matter of us versus them, and Trump has identified himself with this man’s “us” as opposed to them there “libtard” democrats.
I should add that although he has a good technicians grasp of basic agricultural and electronics technology, etc, he has no formal training in biology, chemistry, physics, or higher math.
So he is unable to draw his own conclusions about climate, species extinctions, resource depletion, etc. He takes the word of the R / fossil fuel camp for gospel in such cases.
Of course my good friend and personal attorney’s super liberal daughters, both of whom have degrees from snooty universities, take the word of the D/ liberal camp on these same questions. THEY don’t have any training in the relevant fields themselves.
Whatever the D/ liberal camp wants, they want too.
Fortunately the D / liberal camp happens to be right about climate, resources, species, etc. But even if the D / liberal camp happens to be wrong on a particular issue, they would still toe the party line. It’s all about cultural solidarity, about US versus THEM, when you get right down to the nitty gritty of understanding why people believe what they believe and vote their beliefs.
True enough OFM.
Both sides of the political spectrum believe what they want, or are trained to believe, without challenging the party line, doing their own research, or even having the tools for healthy skepticism.
Partisanship is one of the top enemies we all have, along with Fundamentalism (#1) and Nationalism.
You mean a 6 times bankrupt scammer from Queens will not show his tax records?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/fact-check-has-trump-declared-bankruptcy-four-or-six-times/?noredirect=on
How surprising (sarc)
Doing business with a lot of mobbed up Russians too. I suspect Trump may have been an FBI informant in the 90’s when a lot of capital was fleeing Russia for American real estate and property markets. He seemed to hang out with a lot of bad dudes, but he never caught a charge.
The Curious World of Donald Trump’s Private Russian Connections
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/12/19/the-curious-world-of-donald-trumps-private-russian-connections/
Sometimes its nice to think on the bright side.
In just a few decades many of the worst point sources of pollution can be dismantled, and the sites slowly restored.
All the big coal plants.
Most, if not all, of the refineries- (we may need some for specialty products).
Most of the airports.
Many of the big ports.
Things may get quieter again. Less concrete. Less metal.
Nice.
Hopefully we will still have some forest.
Things to look forward to:
Temperature rise as we “clean up” the air.
Temperature rise as Arctic permafrost melts.
Temperature rise as ice and snow reduce.
Temperature rise as methane bubbles up out of the shallow seas and ponds.
Risk of abrupt temperature rise from methane bursts.
10 billion people, more agriculture, less food production, sea level rise, food and water shortages forcing large migrations, loss of most insect life, loss of fisheries.
A big brother, complete surveillance society.
Arctic Impacts On Weather And Food, Plus How Do We Mitigate The Effects?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnZj_zORKS8&t=2060s
The Arctic may be free of ice for the first time in 10,000 years. Wadhams shows how sea ice is the ‘canary in the mine’ of planetary climate change. He describes how it forms and the vital role it plays in reflecting solar heat back into space and providing an ‘air conditioning’ system for the planet.
Prof. Peter Wadhams is the UK’s most experienced sea ice scientist, with 48 years of research on sea ice and ocean processes in the Arctic and the Antarctic. This has focused on expeditions and measurements in the field, which has involved more than 50 expeditions to both polar regions, working from ice camps, icebreakers, aircraft, and, uniquely, Royal Navy submarines (6 submerged voyages to the North Pole ). His research group in Cambridge has been the only UK group with the capacity to carry out fieldwork on sea ice.
He is Emeritus Professor of Ocean Physics and is the author of numerous publications on dynamics and thermodynamics of sea ice, sea ice thickness, waves in ice, icebergs, ocean convection and kindred topics. The current main topics of research in the group are sea ice properties, dynamics, and distributions in thickness and concentration. He is also a pioneer in the use of AUVs (autonomous underwater vehicles) under sea ice, using multibeam sonar to map bottom features, work which he has also been done from UK nuclear submarines.
He began his research career at the Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge University, where he rose to become Director. He moved to DAMTP in 2001. He has also held visiting professorships in Tokyo (National Institute of Polar Research), Monterey (US Naval Postgraduate School), Seattle (University of Washington) and La Jolla (Green Scholar at Scripps Institution of Oceanography).
He was the coordinator of several European Union Arctic flagship projects (ESOP, GreenICE, CONVECTION, and others) and is currently on the Steering Committee of the EU ICE-ARC project as well as a major US Office of Naval Research initiative in the Arctic. He served eight years on the Scientific Committee of the European Environment Agency and had served on panels of the National Academy of Sciences (USA).
In 1990 he received the Italgas Prize for Environmental Sciences, and he has also been awarded the Polar Medal (UK) (1987) and the W.S. Bruce Prize of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. As well as being Professor at Cambridge he is an Associate Professor at the Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, run by Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, and is a Professor at the Università Politecnica Delle Marche, Ancona. He is a Member of the Finnish Academy and is a Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society.
His most recent book, “A Farewell to Ice”, documents the ways in which the retreat of sea ice in the Arctic generates feedbacks which impact the entire global climate system, accelerating the rate of warming, the rate of sea level rise, the emission of methane from the offshore, and the occurrence of weather extremes affecting food production. He contends that catastrophic consequences cannot be avoided without making an all-out effort to develop ways of directly capturing carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
Enjoy the warmth.
Ever play Monopoly? Guess what, you are in the game.
Robert Reich: The Monopolization of America
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLfO-2t1qPQ
Anti-FUD (disclaimer: paid for, probably by VW)
https://www.theguardian.com/green-light/2019/mar/19/will-i-make-it-out-of-town-common-electric-car-questions-answered
NAOM
Paul Beckwith explains how advances in technology have just pushed humanity further along toward a greater crash. It’s stifled the learning and improvement curves.
Geo-engineering is only an emergency override of global warming to give us time to change the underlying causes inherent in our current civilization.
Paul Beckwith: Stand Up, Before The Pain Is Too Great
https://soundcloud.com/lastborninthewilderness/paul-beckwith-stand-up-before
While it is true that advances in certain technologies have helped push humanity towards a greater crash, it is important to keep in mind that it has been made orders of magnitude worse by the political and social structures that have emerged as a consequence of embracing neo-classical capitalist economics.
As Douglas Rushkoff has said. ““We are running a 21st-century digital economy on a 13th Century printing-press era operating system.” We live in an economic world where it is not good enough for a company like Twitter to make 2 billion dollars a year providing a service. It had to grow, raise venture capital, and go public so it could provide profits for its parasitic shareholders. That’s totally fucked up, everyone knows it including its own CEO, but every company in the system still wants to grow, grow grow!
The underlying operating system is the problem!
Capitalism as it currently exists has to go, because if it doesn’t, it will kill the planet and ultimately it will kill the capitalists as well!
Good Luck!
Now Fred, don’t leave out the government in this one. They fund the military to protect those capitalists and in turn fund the capitalists to help make all those fantastic craft and weapon systems at huge costs. They also pay the scientists and engineers to develop all those systems.
We attack the natural world but spend a lot protecting ourselves from ourselves. Now that the attack upon the natural world has made it a fearsome enemy that will push civilization over the cliff, the general response is non-sequitur.
But let’s talk about it more while the sun beams down through blue skies, slowly heating the planet.
Aside: Fred, here is a thorough study of the temperature dependence on activity cycle of two different flying insects.
Adaptation of the Thermal Responses of Insects
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=18&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjL-YnZ_oziAhVxUd8KHd72AagQFjARegQIBBAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Facademic.oup.com%2Ficb%2Farticle-pdf%2F11%2F1%2F147%2F6021533%2F11-1-147.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2bZPcfwmcFAHiWyW7CBp9Z
GoneFishing,
I saw two bumblebees today, and a honeybee a few days ago. That brings this Spring’s bee count to three.
There are flowering trees and shrubs all over where I live and walk.
Three bees.
Pollinators are becoming scarcer to non-existent. I wonder when the plants around here will fade out.
This is not the world of my youth, it’s not even the world of my adult times. The speed of some changes is astounding. The changes are negative in the natural world, which is very disturbing.
Ecosystem sensitivity must be rather high, or else we have no clue just how badly we have screwed up.
The bird population around here is not only diminished, it’s changing to lowland distribution similar to further south and lower in elevation.
I like all birds but having the grosbeaks, indigo buntings, chickadees and others was great. All moved on up to the higher mountains, or further north, I hope.
Well, at least the great fusion furnace keeps doing it’s thing. We haven’t messed that up yet.
Quite few in bees in Bend this spring, both native, and the invasive non native honey bee.
We shall see– our insects are being attacked.
More than dozen wild bee species declining in Northeastern U.S.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190409093801.htm
Bend Oregon?
Maybe being over 3000 feet altitude is an advantage.
Bees of Pinnacles National Park
https://www.nps.gov/pinn/learn/nature/bees.htm
Over 400 species of native bees
Your Port may not be safe to drink…
https://uspirg.org/sites/pirg/files/reports/WEB_CAP_Glyphosate-pesticide-beer-and-wine_REPORT_022619.pdf?_ga=2.33097086.1581849178.1551185850-857148262.1551185850
Executive Summary
Roundup is everywhere. As the most commonly used agrichemical in the world, Roundup and its main active ingredient, glyphosate, is showing up in places people do not expect, such as food and drinks. In this report, we tested beer and wine and found glyphosate in beer and wine from the U.S., Europe, and Asia. We even found glyphosate in some unexpected places, such as in some organic varieties.
While glyphosate is found in many places, for many years scientists were uncertain if glyphosate was a public health problem.2 But that changed in 2015, when the World Health Organization (WHO) found that glyphosate is a probable carcinogen.3 In 2017, the state of California also decided to list glyphosate as a probable carcinogen based on the WHO study.
This news has far-reaching impacts. In 2018, a jury in California found that Monsanto’s failure to warn a man of the dangers of using Roundup was a probable cause of his cancer, and awarded
him $289 million in damages.
5 Thousands of other people, mostly farmers, are now alleging that their incurable cancers may have been caused by Roundup.6 And in January 2019, France banned the use of Roundup 360, citing it as a “serious risk” to human health.7 Other countries in
the EU are considering other glyphosate bans.8 Despite these risks, the use of Roundup is growing at such a rapid pace that there is enough glyphosate sprayed every year to spray .8 pounds of glyphosate on every cultivated acre of land
in the U.S., and spray nearly half a pound of glyphosate on every cultivated acre of land in the world.
Cheers!
Thanks, FredM.
Time for more Madeira.
Now Fred, don’t leave out the government in this one.
If I’m not mistaken, government is included in paragraph 4B subsection 2a of Political and Social Structures… 😉
But if you’d like I’ll even throw in religion for good measure.
Cheers!
You are right Fred, my apologies. I will not add more detailed discourse in the future.
It’s more than just people that suffer in heat waves and fires.
Wildlife, animals suffer in Europe’s summer of extreme heat
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/wildlife-animals-suffer-europe-s-summer-extreme-heat-n899096
Personally I find the use of glyphosate very worrisome. There’s little doubt in my mind that long term exposure to such chemicals does us great harm, collectively, although proving any particular person is sick because of exposure to such chemicals is very hard to do.
Then there’s the synergistic interaction of all the different ones spewed by exhaust pipes, factories, runoff from streets and construction sites, etc, on top of the ones farmers use. Hardly ANY of these things have ever been safety tested in combination with others.
But nevertheless we should keep in mind that if we give up weed killers and similar chemicals, we are only getting rid of one problem at the expense of making others worse.
No weedkiller means more plowing, more diesel burnt, more machinery worn out, higher food prices, more fertilizer runoff into streams, more soil erosion, and so forth.
It’s hard to say for sure which of these problems are the most important, but given the way our political system works, if it is once conclusively demonstrated in court that any particular chemical is a carcinogen, it’s on the road to being outlawed for agricultural uses.
There is no doubt in my mind that most of the many diseases that afflict people these days are environmentally induced, compared to previous times.
There’s no way in hell we can give up using all these herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, chemical fertilizers, etc, in the short or even in the medium term. Short term food riots and starvation trump longer term environmental and health issues. But we can give the worst ones, as proof of the harm associated with them accumulates.
My guess is that ghyphosate will be history in countries such as the USA within the easily foreseeable future, say ten years or less.
Most people in the industrial age havn’t spent much time in the outdoor world trying to grow food.
So they don’t know how much energy it takes to get a crop out from the field. The first thing they will want to reach for is stuff derived of crude oil and nat gas- like petrol for the machines, nitrogen fertilizer, and glycophosphate weed control.
The alternative is heavy labor and very poor yields. Slavery is illegal now. And it is very hard to find good labor 10 miles walk from the highway.
As OFM said- “There’s no way in hell we can give up using all these herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, chemical fertilizers, etc, in the short or even in the medium term.”
I have to disagree with him here.
There is one way in hell.
Its the downsizing of population by 4-5 billion (and that will be hell).
But still, better to downsize before the crop shortfall.
Experiment- Start here with a hoe. Work down the row, westward. Sleep where you stop for the day. After seven months you will have hoed enough weeds to get corn for the whole family. But the harvest season ended 4 months ago. Why are you hoeing dead corn? This ain’t working.
from page 17 ‘Life Beyond Fossil’, Word of Mouth Press
Then there’s the synergistic interaction of all the different ones spewed by exhaust pipes, factories, runoff from streets and construction sites, etc, on top of the ones farmers use. Hardly ANY of these things have ever been safety tested in combination with others.
Yep! and while it is impossible to prove a connection between any one individual’s cancer and his or her exposure to a particular chemical, what in my mind is especially concerning is the fact that the presence of glyphosate is being detected even where it has not supposedly been deliberately applied.
I have no illusions about industrial agriculture suddenly ending the use of such herbicides and pesticides. However it only compounds the ecological damage to already very stressed ecosystems.
I do find the idea, that we can feed 10 to 11 billion humans on this planet, with this particular game plan long term, to be beyond ludicrous!
Fred- “I do find the idea, that we can feed 10 to 11 billion humans on this planet, with this particular game plan long term, to be beyond ludicrous!”
We may be able to feed that many people if things were optimized to the maximum.
Like abundant energy, protection and restoration of all good land (soil), and a diet much lower on the food chain (ie little meat).
But in the real world, where we have put concrete on so much good land, and we are on the verge of a massive shortfall in energy, and with climate instability in major crop producing areas just starting to show itself, we will likely see 3 billion as the best case scenario later in this century. There is no magic answer for the shortfall in energy. IMIO.
Meanwhile:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIM3pgxHVIM
What’s New in Electric Airplanes?
Welcome to the future folks.
GREENLAND ICE SHEET BEGINS ANNUAL MELTING SEASON A MONTH EARLY
“Greenland’s 1.71 million square kilometer ice sheet has started prematurely melting. Almost one month ahead of the average melting period for the year, scientists have witnessed large pools and rushing rivers forming across the sheet.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/112610895/greenland-ice-sheet-begins-annual-melting-season-a-month-early
OFM- I’ll keep this short, and it is not intended as an attack of on you.
Christianity. on balance, is has been a force of immense evil for well over a thousand years. The worst of all.
The fact that you aren’t painfully aware of this is simple because you look from the inside.
Three basic things have set the foundation for this-
Claims of exclusivity ‘the one path’
Seeking to convert another person
The power structure.
And from this has flowed enough cruelty to fill a thousand galaxies, forever.
This was nothing that Joshua imagined. His imagination was alot closer to what J.Lennons song said- ‘imagine no religion’, to live and die for.
Perhaps you would tell me that Christendom would have been even more cruel without the theocracy/ideology. But I can’t imagine it.