US Oil Production – Page 22

US Oil Output Continues its Steady Decline

05/31/202006/11/2020 Ovi 147 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). At the end, an analysis of three different EIA monthly reports is provided. The charts below are updated to March 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states, (Production > or close to 100 kb/d).

Today’s June 1 update shows the continuous slow decline in oil output from US oil fields from November 2019 to March 2020. March output was 12,716 kb/d, down by 28 kb/d from February’s 12,744 kb/d. Also it should be noted that February’s output estimate from the EIA’s earlier May report, 12,833 kb/d, has been revised to 12,744 kb/d, a downward revision of 89 kb/d. The Red dot is the projected April output from the May Monthly Energy Review.

Are Non-OPEC’s Best Days in the Rear-view Mirror

05/23/202005/23/2020 Ovi 108 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel.

While this post updates Non-OPEC production to January 2020, we are now in late May and the direction for future production for the next few years is clear, LOWER than where it was in March 2020. OPEC, in response to the reduced worldwide demand, arranged for a production reduction through a Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) with OPEC and Non-OPEC countries. Also Canada and Norway have indicated they will be cutting production in response to world wide reduced demand. The OPEC + DoC reduction schedule and chart are shown and discussed at the end of this post.

US GoM 2019 Summary: Part II – Reserves

05/10/202005/10/2020 George Kaplan 30 Comments

A Guest Post by George Kaplan

Introduction

BOEM produces an estimate of GoM reserves every year. This year’s covers estimates for then end of 2017. Nominally The figures given are 2P estimates but previous analysis has shown them to be extremely conservative, and they strictly follows SEC rules concerning reserves being bookable only if clear development plans are in place.

Backdated Reserves

These charts show reserve additions from discoveries by depth (all backdated to the original discovery year so that all adjustments due to improved extraction methods and better understanding of the reservoir etc. are included in the shoen reserve estimate), production and remaining reserves also by water depth.

The black dashes against each discovery show the original estimates of reserves. The shallow water estimates were very low and had significant upgrades, deep water not so much, and ultra-deep hardly at all. The reason for this is mainly the date of the discoveries: nominally it should be easier to apply seismic and drilling analysis from shallow water but the ultra-deep finds were made later and therefore have had better technology and seismic available when the original estimates were made; more on this later.

That said I do not know what method BOEM uses to make the estimates, it cannot be the ultra high fidelity models that the E&P companies use as they do not have the computer power, human resources or time to cover every field in the GoM.

Is November 2019 the New US Peak Oil Date?

05/02/202005/10/2020 Ovi 260 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel.

Here I am again reporting on out of date US February oil production from the EIA April report after the world oil environment has been turned on its head. Fortunately the EIA also has some forward looking reports that make use of more current data to provide projections for a few months out. Also the EIA has a guesstimate for weekly oil output which certainly provides an indication of the direction of production over the next month. Also there are reports on rig counts that indicate activity in oil basins and provide clues on where oil output is going. Down, Down, Down.

Non-OPEC Oil Production Punches New High

04/24/202004/24/2020 Ovi 172 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

As I wrote in my previous post, preparing these last two has been a surrealistic exercise. The oil market environment for this post has been even more surrealistic than the previous one and the associated futures contract prices have been extremely volatile this week. The May WTI front month contract went negative on April 20 for the first time ever and closed at negative $37.63/bbl while the June contract closed at $20.43. Today’s settled price, April 24, for the June contract is $16.94.

On April 7th, OPEC + finalized a record oil production cut of 9.7 Mb/d after days of discussion. The 9.7 million bpd cut will begin on May 1 and will extend through the end of June. The cuts will then taper to 7.7 million bpd from July through the end of 2020, and 5.8 million bpd from January 2021 through April 2022. The 23-nation group will meet again on June 10 to determine if further action is needed.

The lone hold out to the deal was Mexico which was expected to cut 400 kb/d but would only agree to 100 kb/d. This was a real Mexican standoff and Mexico won because they had hedged their oil output and the more the price dropped, the more they made on their hedges. According to this report, they hedged their oil at $49/bbl in January. It was unclear how many barrels were hedged or how much was spent.