The EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2014

Last year I posted a lot of data published in the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2014 published in May of last year, and the next one is due out Tuesday April 14. We are looking forward to that. But the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2014, published last September, completely slipped by me. How did I miss that? But I looked at their predictions for world Crude plus Condensate production I found it very interesting.

In the below, though the data was posted in September, I have assumed the 2014 data was complete. Though it may be a little off it is close enough for, as the saying goes, “government work”‘. The data is in million barrels per day with the last data point 2040.

IEO World

The EIA is expecting World C+C to reach just over 99 million barrels per day in 2040. That will be up 21.25 million bpd from 2014.

IEO Table

This chart shows just which countries, they believe, will be responsible for that 21.25 million bpd increase. That is except for OPEC. They do not break out OPEC production by country.

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EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook + Texas

The EIA has released their latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. Below I compare the EIA’s ever changing outlook for future oil production. The STEO charts below are total liquids and are in million barrels per day.

STEO April

The EIA increased their December 2014 all liquids estimate but dramatically decreased their January 2015 estimate. The EIA now says US total liquids production declined by 480,000 barrels per day in January. 

STEO April NO

The EIA still believes non-OPEC total liquids production will take off but not until 2016. They have non-OPEC liquids reaching a new high in December but dropping almost one million barrels per day in January and not reaching that December high again until July of 2016.

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The Competitive Exclusion Principle

Evolution is all about a struggle for survival and reproduction. For predators it becomes an arms race. For hundreds of millions of years predatory animals have honed their offensive weapons while prey animals have evolved ever more effective defensive adaptations. Each animal, predator or prey, carved out their particular niche and occupied that niche until they were driven out, to another niche, or went extinct, or still occupy it today.

And that’s the way it went for hundreds of millions of years. Every species multiplying its numbers to the limit its niche or habit would support. Species waxed and waned, predator and prey maintaining a balance. When the prey numbers would expand the predator numbers would expand and when too many predators reduced prey numbers, then the predator numbers would also wane.Ron 9

For millions of years nature kept every species in check. Population explosions of any species was soon met by either an corresponding explosion of predatory animals, or in cases were there were not enough predator animals, like rat or mice plagues, starvation would ultimately reduce their numbers to what the territory would support.

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US January Production Data + Neutral Zone

The latest Petroleum Supply Monthly is out with the USA production numbers for January 2015. The data is thousand barrels per day with the last data point January 2015.

USA C+C

US C+C production was down 135,000 barrels per day in January. That is the biggest monthly decline since July of 2011.

I have shortened the states data to 25 months in order to give more emphasis on the January 2015 data.

North Dakota

North Dakota was down 37,000 barrels per day, exactly what the NDIC reported. That is because the EIA gets their data from the states.

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The Problem of the Human Population

This is a guest post by Javier

Javier holds a PhD in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology and has been a scientist for 30 years in molecular genetics and neurobiology. He wrote a blog on macroeconomy and investments from a cyclic point of view for over two years and currently writes a blog in Spanish about the economic crisis, energy crisis and climate change at http://www.rankia.com/blog/game-over/ . Javier goes by the name of Knownuthing on his blog.

Opinions expressed in this post are those of Javier and not necessarily those of the blog owner Ron Patterson. This post was translated from the Spanish by computer and may therefore contain some grammatical errors.

The Problem of the Human Population

 The question of whether or not overpopulation in the world is clearly debatable. For starters there is no agreement on what should be the world’s population and is also clear that currently the world is able to withstand the seven billion people who live and there is little doubt that it can support more, as the number increases constantly.

However, there is concern for decades that in a finite world at some point should be the limits of the world’s population, and that may not be very smart to reach those limits. Although efforts to limit population growth in some countries like India or China, today these efforts have been abandoned or are abandoning were made in the second half of the twentieth century, mainly due to the pace of population growth is declining alone globally.

As in all matters based on the laws of nature, we can use science to analyze the problem of the human population. The science that helps us in this case is ecology, which has a specific branch of human ecology . Anyone who thinks that we do not apply the laws of biology, is that it has lost touch with the reality of human nature. For very rational to presume to be, we are still animals and not very rational forget.

1. How many and how fast we grow?

The world’s population at the time of this writing is 7,301,880,780 people on the face of the Earth. You can see the current figure on pagehttp://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Seven 1300 million and growing at a rate of 1.1% per year, ie 80 million people each year , the equivalent of two Spains completely filled each year.

Jav 1Fig 1 Growth of world population and growth rate estimates up to 2050. Source: World Population Data

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