Category: Texas

Eagle Ford Output Estimate and Future Scenario

D Coyne 101 Comments

Eagle Ford output is difficult to estimate as there are 20-25 separate fields that need to be followed to get a full picture. To save time, I have used Enno Peters’ data for horizontal wells from Districts 1 to 5 in Texas from his website shaleprofile.com, he has data through June.  Enno’s data is combined with the RRC data for statewide C+C output to find the percentage of Texas C+C from the Eagle Ford. This percentage is multiplied by Dean’s estimate for Texas C+C output to get the following estimate, which is compared with Enno Peters’ data.  EF-EP is Enno Peter’s collection of data from the RRC, EF-DC is my estimate using the method described.  Based on a May 2016 Eagle Ford estimate, I subtract 70 kb/d from the EF-DC estimate to account for non-Eagle Ford horizontal well output in Districts 1 to 5

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Texas Petroleum Report – July 2016 and LTO scenarios

D Coyne 328 Comments

by Dennis Coyne

I have attempted to correct the reported Texas output using the methodology provided by Dean. Usually Dean provides the spreadsheets and I simply reproduce his charts with a few comments.  This month Dean may be on vacation or busy and I have not yet received his input. If I get his charts I will post them.

Dean uses the average of the correction factors from Jan 2014 to the present in order to reduce the month to month volatility of the correction factors.  I tried several averaging methods (all data, 12 month average, 6 month average, and 3 month average) where for the x month average the most recent x months of correction factors were averaged.

The only method with a significant difference was the 3 month average, so I present the “corrected” output using Dean’s usual method and an “Alt (3 month)” alternative. The RRC data and the EIA estimate are also included for reference.

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Petroleum Supply Monthly, Texas C+C estimate, Permian, and Eagle Ford

D Coyne 561 Comments

This post was written by Dennis Coyne and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Ron Patterson.

I have considered an alternative way of estimating Texas oil (C+C) output using the Drilling info data provided in the EIA’s 914 monthly production reports.

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The Texas estimate is a weak part of the EIA’s estimate for US C+C output. In the chart above I show the EIA’s most recent monthly estimate from the Petroleum supply monthly and compare with an alternative estimate that substitute’s my best estimate for EIA’s TX C+C estimate. The slope of the trend line needs to be multiplied by 366 to give the decline at an annual rate, for the EIA estimate it is 528 kb/d per year, and for the alternative estimate it is 364 kb/d per year. Read More

Texas Oil and Natural Gas- June 2016

D Coyne 581 Comments

Dean has shared his estimates for Texas Oil and Natural Gas output. Texas (TX) C+C output was revised lower by -10, -17, -22, -18, and -52 kb/d for Nov 2015 through March 2016 respectively. Output in April 2016 increased by 27 kb/d from the revised March 2016 estimate to 3511 kb/d. The EIA estimate for March 2016 is 3276 kb/d, and Dean’s revised estimate is 3484 kb/d, 208 kb/d more than the EIA estimate.

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