Chart 1 – A Model using data from Enno Peter’s shaleprofile.com.
The chart above (chart 1) needs some explanation. It is based on the Permian LTO model found by using Enno Peters’ data from shaleprofile.com and an estimate of future well completions. I doubt output will rise this quickly, but the peak level may be about right if oil prices follow the assumed scenario. Read More
Dean Fantazzini recently updated his estimates for Texas Oil and Natural gas. Data from the Texas Railroad Commission has improved so correction factors are smaller, the estimates from Dean now match the estimates by the US EIA fairly closely for Crude plus condensate (C+C) produced in Texas.
There was a noticeable change in the Texas data about 6 months ago so I show an estimate based on the correction factors from the previous 6 months. Dean prefers to show an estimate based on all the data (which he has done for many months) and an estimate based on the most recent 3 months of data (which has been presented more recently). The EIA estimate is more consistent with the 3 month or 6 month estimate with the “all vintage data” estimate being somewhat higher.
October C+C in Texas was 3151 kb/d and in November it was 3161 kb/d, using the 3 month vintage estimate.
The data from Dean Fantazzini can be found at link below, please credit him if this data is used.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6mp6sqktz9h33jo/vintage%20November%202016.xlsx?dl=0
The labels in the chart above are for the “corrected (3 month)” estimate. This estimate (now preferred by Dean Fantazzini) is 35 kb/d lower than the EIA estimate for Sept 2016 (which is the most recent EIA estimate). Texas C+C output has fallen by about 500 kb/d from the April 2015 peak. Read More
Edit 12/2/2016, 8:30 AM EST. A corrected chart for correction factors below and a new chart added.
The railroad commission of Texas released September output data a few weeks ago and Dean Fantazzini made an estimate of the “corrected” data for crude plus condensate (C+C) and natural gas. Last month he found there had been a structural change in the data in March and provided a new estimate using only the most recent 3 months of data, I chose to use the most recent 6 months of data instead.
This month I will present the old estimate (labelled “all”) using all vintage data (dating back to April 2014) as well as the 6 month and 3 month estimate, which use the most recent 6 months and 3 months of data respectively. Read More
