D Coyne – Page 72 – Peak Oil Barrel

An Empirical Model For Oil Prices and Some Implications

03/19/201603/19/2016 D Coyne 338 Comments

This is a guest post by Ian Schindler (Schinzy).

The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson or Dennis Coyne.

Introduction

This work is preliminary. It is a preview of part of a paper I am writing with Aude Illig. There are three main reasons I am making this post. The first is as a public service. There are many people reading this blog who are directly affected by oil prices and who have to make decisions based on future oil prices. Having a model to understand the dynamics of oil prices is of use to them. The second reason is that some people reading this blog model oil extraction. These models either omit price considerations or make assumptions on them. Our model is a large improvement on these assumptions so it should improve their extraction models. The final reason is that I consider the quality of the comments on this blog to be high. I believe that the feedback I get from this post will improve the quality of the final paper. Indeed, Dennis Coyne has already provided valuable feedback after previewing the post. This study has been a humbling experience. Get ready to throw out everything you thought you knew about oil prices.

Coal Shock Model

03/11/201610/29/2019 D Coyne 380 Comments

This is a guest post by Dennis Coyne.

The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson.

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The eventual peak in World fossil fuel output is a potentially serious problem for human civilization. Many people have studied this problem, including Jean Laherrere, Steve Mohr, Paul Pukite (aka Webhubbletelescope), and David Rutledge.

I have found Steve Mohr’s work the most comprehensive as he covered coal, oil, and natural gas from both the supply and demand perspective in his PhD Thesis. Jean Laherrere has studied the problem extensively with his focus primarily on oil and natural gas, but with some exploration of the coal resource as well. David Rutledge has studied the coal resource using linearization techniques on the production data (which he calls logit and probit).

Paul Pukite introduced the Shock Model with dispersive discovery which he has used primarily to look at how oil and natural gas resources are developed and extracted over time. In the past I have attempted to apply Paul Pukite’s Shock Model (in a simplified form) to the discovery data found in Jean Laherrere’s work for both oil and natural gas, using the analysis of Steve Mohr as a guide for the URR of my low and high scenarios along with the insight gleaned from Hubbert Linearization.

In the current post I will apply the Shock model to the coal resource, again trying to build on the work of Mohr, Rutledge, Laherrere, and Pukite.
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Open Thread

12/16/201512/16/2015 D Coyne 209 Comments

The previous post was getting very long on comments.

So for any new conversations they can go here.

Open Thread- Oil and Natural Gas

09/08/201509/08/2015 D Coyne 573 Comments

Hi all,

As an experiment two open threads were created. Oil and Natural Gas and Non-oil (all other energy related stuff such as solar, wind, EVs, etc).

This is the oil and natural gas thread.

Please put your comments in the appropriate thread.

Open Thread- Non oil

09/08/201509/08/2015 D Coyne 351 Comments

Hi all,

As an experiment I am creating two open threads. An oil and natural gas thread (coal could be here as well) and a non-oil thread for other energy and non-energy related discussions.

This thread is the non-oil discussion so you can put, renewable energy, EV, philosophy , evolutionary psychology, etc in this thread.

Thanks.