Author: D C

Wind and Solar Scenarios and Non-Fossil Fuel open thread- May 25, 2016

D C 325 Comments

blogchart/

Wind and solar energy consumption have grown quickly from 1994 to 2014 based on data from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 at a rate of 25% per year combined. Historical data on oil consumption from 1900 to 1975 shows that oil use grew by about 7% per year over that period. Note that this rate of growth was constrained by demand for energy as evidenced by very low oil prices from 1950 to 1972 and the high rates of oil consumption growth from 1960 to 1970.  World GDP and population grew rapidly over that period before supply constraints became apparent and rates of oil consumption growth slowed markedly after 1979.
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Texas Update-April 2016 and US L48 OS C+C Annual Decline rate

D C 316 Comments

The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC of TX) updated its online database a few weeks ago. The best estimates I have seen for Texas C+C and natural gas output are produced by Dean. Thank you Dean for sharing your analysis with us.

The following 4 charts were produced directly by Dean, output for Oil + Condensate, Oil, and Condensate are in barrels per day, and Total Natural Gas is in thousands of cubic feet per day.

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The World in 2030- Non-Fossil Fuel Open Thread

D C 325 Comments

This is a non-fossil fuel Open Thread, with a suggested topic of what the World will look like in 2030.

There are many different visions of the future. Some see either slow or fast collapse due to financial crises caused by high debt levels, overpopulation, resource constraints, war, and environmental damage (not a complete list.)

Others see the potential for technological progress in EVs and other transportation, low cost solar and wind energy sources, reduced cost battery storage, low cost sensors, and new business models leading to disruptive changes that may allow us to overcome many resource constraints, reduce environmental damage, and transform society.  In addition, this optimistic view foresees a Worldwide demographic transition with World population peaking in 2050 at 8.2 billion and falling back to 7 billion by 2100 and reaching 2 billion by 2200 as total fertility ratios (TFR) fall to 1.6 births per woman and average life expectancy tops out at 90 years.

Reality may fall somewhere between these sharply contrasting visions of the future, but from my perspective, the future is far from clear.