The previous post was getting very long on comments.
So for any new conversations they can go here.
Author: D Coyne
Open Thread- Oil and Natural Gas
Hi all,
As an experiment two open threads were created. Oil and Natural Gas and Non-oil (all other energy related stuff such as solar, wind, EVs, etc).
This is the oil and natural gas thread.
Please put your comments in the appropriate thread.
Open Thread- Non oil
Hi all,
As an experiment I am creating two open threads. An oil and natural gas thread (coal could be here as well) and a non-oil thread for other energy and non-energy related discussions.
This thread is the non-oil discussion so you can put, renewable energy, EV, philosophy , evolutionary psychology, etc in this thread.
Thanks.
World Natural Gas Shock Model
This is a guest post by Dennis Coyne.
The views expressed in the post are those of Dennis Coyne and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson.
The post that follows relies heavily on the work of Paul Pukite (aka Webhubbletelescope), Jean Laherrere, and Steve Mohr. Any mistakes are my responsibility.
For World Natural Gas URR Steve Mohr estimates 3 cases, with case 2 being his best estimate.
Case 1 URR= 14,000 TCF (trillion cubic feet)
Case 2 URR= 18,000 TCF
Case 3 URR= 27,000 TCF
Jean Laherrere’s most recent World natural gas URR estimate is close to Steve Mohr’s Case 1 at 13,000 TCF.
A Hubbert Linearization(HL) of World Conventional Natural Gas from 1999 to 2014 suggests a URR of 11,000 TCF, an HL from 1982-1998 points to a URR of 6000 TCF for conventional natural gas.
Note that “Conventional” natural gas subtracts US shale gas and US coal bed methane (CBM) from gross output minus reinjected gas for the World.
Oil Shock Models with Different Ultimately Recoverable Resources of Crude plus Condensate (3100 Gb to 3700 Gb)
This is a guest post by Dennis Coyne
The views expressed are those of Dennis Coyne and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson.
The post that follows relies heavily on the previous work of both Paul Pukite (aka Webhubbletelescope) and Jean Laherrere and I thank them both for sharing their knowledge, any mistakes are my responsibility.
In a previous post I presented a simplified Oil Shock model that closely followed a 2013 estimate of World C+C Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) by Jean Laherrere of 2700 Gb, where 2200 Gb was from crude plus condensate less extra heavy oil (C+C-XH) and 500 Gb was from extra heavy (XH) oil resources in the Canadian and Venezuelan oil sands.
In the analysis here I use the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method to estimate World C+C-XH URR to be about 2500 Gb. The creaming curve method preferred by Jean Laherrere suggests the lower URR of 2200 Gb, if we assume only 200 Gb of future reserve growth and oil discovery.
Previously, I have shown that US oil reserve growth (of proved plus probable reserves) was 63% from 1980 to 2005. If we assume all of the 200 Gb of reserves added to the URR=2200 Gb model are from oil discoveries and that in a URR=2500 Gb, oil discoveries are also 200 Gb, then 300 Gb of reserve growth would be needed over all future years (we will use 90 years to 2100) or about 35% reserve growth on the 850 Gb of 2P (proved plus probable) reserves in 2010. I conclude that a URR of 2500 Gb for C+C-XH is quite conservative.
A problem with the Hubbert Linearization method is that there is a tendency to underestimate URR.