The IEA released highlights for the December Oil Market report in mid December. I have used information from the November report and assumed OPEC crude output will be 32.7 Mb/d and non OPEC output will be 500 kb/d below the November report supply estimate. I have also used the demand estimates from the December highlights. Read More
Non-petroleum comments in this thread please.
The labels in the chart above are for the “corrected (3 month)” estimate. This estimate (now preferred by Dean Fantazzini) is 35 kb/d lower than the EIA estimate for Sept 2016 (which is the most recent EIA estimate). Texas C+C output has fallen by about 500 kb/d from the April 2015 peak. Read More
Non petroleum comments in this thread please.
Edit 12/2/2016, 8:30 AM EST. A corrected chart for correction factors below and a new chart added.
The railroad commission of Texas released September output data a few weeks ago and Dean Fantazzini made an estimate of the “corrected” data for crude plus condensate (C+C) and natural gas. Last month he found there had been a structural change in the data in March and provided a new estimate using only the most recent 3 months of data, I chose to use the most recent 6 months of data instead.
This month I will present the old estimate (labelled “all”) using all vintage data (dating back to April 2014) as well as the 6 month and 3 month estimate, which use the most recent 6 months and 3 months of data respectively. Read More