Chart 1 – A Model using data from Enno Peter’s shaleprofile.com.
The chart above (chart 1) needs some explanation. It is based on the Permian LTO model found by using Enno Peters’ data from shaleprofile.com and an estimate of future well completions. I doubt output will rise this quickly, but the peak level may be about right if oil prices follow the assumed scenario. Read More
Comment not directly related to oil and natural gas in this thread please.
A number of news media pieces have recently suggested that oil prices may fall due to soaring output in the US. Output from US light tight oil (LTO) may not rise as quickly as some EIA reports may suggest. One source of confusion is that the EIA creates many reports and some are more reliable than others. The two charts below cover US LTO and US crude plus condensate (C+C) output.
US LTO Output from the EIA Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) and EIA Tight Oil (LTO) estimates in kb/d.
US EIA monthly C+C output and centered 4 week average output in kb/d.
Comments not related to petroleum in this thread, please.
Dean Fantazzini recently updated his estimates for Texas Oil and Natural gas. Data from the Texas Railroad Commission has improved so correction factors are smaller, the estimates from Dean now match the estimates by the US EIA fairly closely for Crude plus condensate (C+C) produced in Texas.
There was a noticeable change in the Texas data about 6 months ago so I show an estimate based on the correction factors from the previous 6 months. Dean prefers to show an estimate based on all the data (which he has done for many months) and an estimate based on the most recent 3 months of data (which has been presented more recently). The EIA estimate is more consistent with the 3 month or 6 month estimate with the “all vintage data” estimate being somewhat higher.
