Ron Patterson – Page 74 – Peak Oil Barrel

Update: OPEC January MOMR with December Production Data

01/16/201401/30/2014 Ron Patterson 98 Comments

The OPEC January Monthly Oil Market Report is out with crude only production data through December 2012. Total OPEC crude only was 29,223,000 barrels per day, down 20,000 barrels per day. But that was after November production was revised down by 170,000 bp/d. So December production was down 190,000 bp/d from what they originally reported last month.

Big movers were Iraq and Libya. Iraqi November production was revised down by 132,000 bp/d and their December production was down another 55,000 bp/d meaning they were down 187,000 from what was originally reported last month.

Update: North Dakota Bakken Data

01/14/201401/30/2014 Ron Patterson 39 Comments

North Dakota published their monthly report on Bakken Production and All North Dakota Prouction. Nothing to get excited about. Bakken production was up 28,285 barrels per day while all north Dakota was up 27,864 barrels per day. This means that North Dakota production outside the Bakken was down 421 bp/d.

The Director’s Cut comments on the price they are getting for Bakken Oil:

Oct Sweet Crude Price = $85.16/barrel
Nov Sweet Crude Price = $71.42/barrel
Dec Sweet Crude Price = $73.47/barrel
Today Sweet Crude Price = $71.25/barrel (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)

Interesting that they are selling their oil at about a $21 discount to WTI about a $35 discount to Brent. More of the Director’s comments:

The drilling rig count was unchanged from Oct to Nov, but the number of well
completions dropped from 166 to 138. Days from spud to initial production remained
steady at 114. Investors remain concerned about the uncertainty surrounding federal
policies on taxation and hydraulic fracturing regulation.

We estimate that at the end of Nov there were about 510 wells waiting on completion
services, an increase of 50.

This plot is “Bakken Additional Wells” and the 12 month trailing average. As you can see the average for the last 15 months or so has been pretty flat, around 150 additional wells per month.

The EIA’s Latest Drilling Productivity Report

01/13/201401/30/2014 Ron Patterson 21 Comments

The EIA’s latest Drilling Productivity Report is out. Not a lot of changes since we now know that the EIA just guesses at the production for the last five months, August through December, then plugs in their estimate for the next two months, January and February. In the case of the Bakken they say December production was 1,003,578 bp/d and January and February will be 1,025,634 and 1,050,521 bp/d respectively. For Eagle Ford December production, they say, was 1,221,576 bp/d and they expect January and February production to be 1,251,617 and 1,285,224 bp/d respectively.

The below chart shows the Bakken production change from month to month. I have shortened the time displayed in order to better show the month to month change.

Notice the dramatic change in the January report for May, June and July. Obviously they looked at the real data and saw how different it was from what they had previously just plugged in, and made the necessary changes. They are saying that the Bakken had a really good December, slightly better than January, then things turn up again in February.

Here is the same chart for Eagle Ford.

Not such dramatic changes in the Eagle Ford production data. But notice they are expecting an upturn in January and December. We shall see.

EIA International Energy Statistics for August and September

01/08/201401/30/2014 Ron Patterson 62 Comments

The EIA has finally published its International Energy Statistics. The last one had July data. This one is has two months updates, August and September. All the data I publish comes is Crude+Condensate from January 2000 through September 2013.

Again, all data is C+C in thousand barrels per day with the last data point September 2013.

As you can see from the chart World C+C production has leveled out in the last year and one half. September 2013 is slightly lower than February 2012.

There were a couple of major revisions in the July data. Canada was revised down by 269 kb/d while Non-OPEC was revised down by 228 kb/d. There were other small revisions upward. OPEC C+C had no revisions so that left World C+C for July revised down by 228 kb/d.

Both the USA and Canada are on a real tear, owing of course to Light Tight Oil and the Oil Sands. Their combined production is up about 1.9 mb/d since in one year, since last September.

GOM Production and Other News

01/06/201401/30/2014 Ron Patterson 44 Comments

Not much happening on the Peak Oil front these days. I checked out the BSEE Gulf of Mexico production. Data is in kb/d with the last data point September 2013.

Average production from the GOM has been relatively flat for the last two and one half years at about 1.260 million barrels per day. The arrow marks April 2010, the month of the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

The big deepwater plays continue to decline. I guess they are bringing on other wells in order to keep production flat.

The above chart is combined liquids production of Atlantis, Thunder Horse, Tahiti and Blind Faith. The last data point is September 2013.