The EIA just released its Drilling Productivity Report for April. In this report they have post what they expect the shale production data will look like through May 2015.
The EIA is expecting a rounded top for shale production. They are expecting a big drop of total shale production in May to the tune of 56,673 barrels per day. In April they had total shale production down 2,098 bpd.
The EIA has Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara down but still has the Permian up by 10,647 bpd.
Last year I posted a lot of data published in the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2014 published in May of last year, and the next one is due out Tuesday April 14. We are looking forward to that. But the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2014, published last September, completely slipped by me. How did I miss that? But I looked at their predictions for world Crude plus Condensate production I found it very interesting.
In the below, though the data was posted in September, I have assumed the 2014 data was complete. Though it may be a little off it is close enough for, as the saying goes, “government work”‘. The data is in million barrels per day with the last data point 2040.
The EIA is expecting World C+C to reach just over 99 million barrels per day in 2040. That will be up 21.25 million bpd from 2014.
This chart shows just which countries, they believe, will be responsible for that 21.25 million bpd increase. That is except for OPEC. They do not break out OPEC production by country.
The EIA has released their latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. Below I compare the EIA’s ever changing outlook for future oil production. The STEO charts below are total liquids and are in million barrels per day.
The EIA increased their December 2014 all liquids estimate but dramatically decreased their January 2015 estimate. The EIA now says US total liquids production declined by 480,000 barrels per day in January.
The EIA still believes non-OPEC total liquids production will take off but not until 2016. They have non-OPEC liquids reaching a new high in December but dropping almost one million barrels per day in January and not reaching that December high again until July of 2016.
Evolution is all about a struggle for survival and reproduction. For predators it becomes an arms race. For hundreds of millions of years predatory animals have honed their offensive weapons while prey animals have evolved ever more effective defensive adaptations. Each animal, predator or prey, carved out their particular niche and occupied that niche until they were driven out, to another niche, or went extinct, or still occupy it today.
And that’s the way it went for hundreds of millions of years. Every species multiplying its numbers to the limit its niche or habit would support. Species waxed and waned, predator and prey maintaining a balance. When the prey numbers would expand the predator numbers would expand and when too many predators reduced prey numbers, then the predator numbers would also wane.
For millions of years nature kept every species in check. Population explosions of any species was soon met by either an corresponding explosion of predatory animals, or in cases were there were not enough predator animals, like rat or mice plagues, starvation would ultimately reduce their numbers to what the territory would support.
The latest Petroleum Supply Monthly is out with the USA production numbers for January 2015. The data is thousand barrels per day with the last data point January 2015.
US C+C production was down 135,000 barrels per day in January. That is the biggest monthly decline since July of 2011.
I have shortened the states data to 25 months in order to give more emphasis on the January 2015 data.
North Dakota was down 37,000 barrels per day, exactly what the NDIC reported. That is because the EIA gets their data from the states.