Ron Patterson – Page 38 – Peak Oil Barrel

Open Thread, Any Energy Related Subject

10/19/201510/19/2015 Ron Patterson 219 Comments

Data for the below chart is from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Here we have a three year WTI price comparison chart. You can see that the 2014 price collapse began at almost the exact same time of the year as the 2008 price collapse. The 2008 collapse was a lot more dramatic and fell faster and slightly lower than the 2014 collapse. The 2008 collapse bottomed out around Christmas of that year and the 2014 did not pause until late January 2015. However by late October 2009 the WTI price was already in the $80 range. This time however we are still stuck below $50.

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Bakken Production Down plus IEA Predictions

10/13/201510/13/2015 Ron Patterson 678 Comments

The Bakken and North Dakota production data is in.

Bakken production was down 19,502 bpd in August while all North Dakota was down 20,552 bpd.

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OPEC Crude Little Change

10/12/201510/12/2015 Ron Patterson 75 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is just out with the crude only production numbers for the 12 OPEC countries. The data below is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point is September 2015.

OPEC 12 crude only production was up 109,000 barrels per day in September but that was after the August production numbers were revised down by 82,000 bpd. OPEC crude only production now stands at 31,571,000 pbd. That is just 12,000 bpd above June production but still 100,000 bpd below their peak in July of 2008.

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EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

10/07/201510/07/2015 Ron Patterson 333 Comments

The EIA is out with the latest Short Term Energy Outlook. All charts below are in million barrels per day. The one table is in thousand barrels per day. The projected data is through December 2016.

The EIA has Non-OPEC total liquids dropping 620,000 bpd in September, up 280,000 bpd in November but bottoming out in January, February and March, then climbing until October of 2016.

Open Thread, Oil and Gas

10/04/201510/04/2015 Ron Patterson 245 Comments

Oil and Gas thread Only. Please post comments on all other subjects on the “Other Subjects” thread below.

Russia oil output at post-Soviet high on foreign projects, Rosneft

Russian oil output, one of the world’s largest, reached a new post-Soviet monthly high of 10.74 million barrels per day (bpd) in September thanks to foreign-led projects and Rosneft, Energy Ministry data showed on Friday.

Output rose from 10.68 million bpd in August and eclipsed the previous record of 10.71 million bpd reached earlier this year, adding to a global glut that has battered oil prices.

This answers a question I have been asking for years, “why is Russian reported production always at least half a million barrels per day higher than EIA or JODI reported Russian production”? Russia is reporting foreign production as if it were produced in Russia! What if the United Kingdom were to do this? Then the BP Alaskan production and much of the production in the Gulf of Mexico would be reported as United Kingdom production. But then the US would get to count all the oil Exxon produces around the world.

Oil Production in Russia to Drop to 310Mln Tons by 2035

Oil production in Russia may fall to 310 million tons from the current 525 million tons by 2035 given a tougher tax regime amid low oil prices and sanctions, according to LUKoil Vice President Leonid Fedun.

That is a 2.6 percent drop per year. That’s what Lukoil is saying will happen if Russia keeps the current tax structure. Of course they are lobbying for a much lower tax rate, saying that is the only way they can have enough money to invest in enough new production to hold production to only a slight decline, down to only 502 million tons a year.