Author: Ron Patterson

World Rig Count Still Falling

Ron Patterson 400 Comments

Baker Hughes recently published their International Rig Count. This rig count is at the end of April. It does not include the US, Canada, any of the FSU countries or inland China. The count includes both oil and gas rigs.

BH Total Intl.

Total International Rigs stood at 946 in April, down 39 for the month and down 436 rigs since the latest peak in July 2014.

BH Latin America

The Latin America rig count stood at 203 in April, down 15 rigs since April and down 204 since July 2014.

BH Europe

Europe rig count stood at 90 in April, down 6 in the last month and down 63 since July 2014.

BH Africa

African rigs seem to have leveled out. They stood at 90 in April, down only 1 from March. Africa’s latest peak was in November 2014 and they are down 52 from that point.

BH Middle East

The Middle East rig count had been holding steady but dropped 13 rigs in April. That is down 48 rigs since their latest peak in July 2014.

BH Total World

Baker Hughes’ total world rig count is just their total international rig count plus the US and Canada. It still does not include any FSU countries or inland China. The total world rig count did not start dropping until after November 2014 when it stood at 3,670 rigs. It is down 2,246 rigs since then and now stands at 1424 rigs after dropping 127 rigs in April.

BH US Monthly

The US monthly rig count dropped 41 rigs from March to April and now stands at 437. The Count stood at 1,925 in November 2014 and is down 1,488 rigs since that point.

BH Canada

The Canadian rig count is highly seasonal and usually peaks in February. The last normal February peak was in 2014 when it peaked at 626 rigs. The 2016 February peak was 211 rigs. The March to April decline was 47 rigs and their total rig count now stands at just 41 rigs.

 

 

Peak Oil Is Back

Ron Patterson 522 Comments

Where did all the oil go? The peak is back

An extensive new scientific analysis published in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy & Environment says that proved conventional oil reserves as detailed in industry sources are likely “overstated” by half.

According to standard sources like the Oil & Gas Journal, BP’s Annual Statistical Review of World Energy, and the US Energy Information Administration, the world contains 1.7 trillion barrels of proved conventional reserves.

However, according to the new study by Professor Michael Jefferson of the ESCP Europe Business School, a former chief economist at oil major Royal Dutch/Shell Group, this official figure which has helped justify massive investments in new exploration and development, is almost double the real size of world reserves.

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews (WIRES) is a series of high-quality peer-reviewed publications which runs authoritative reviews of the literature across relevant academic disciplines.

According to Professor Michael Jefferson, who spent nearly 20 years at Shell in various senior roles from head of planning in Europe to director of oil supply and trading, “the five major Middle East oil exporters altered the basis of their definition of ‘proved’ conventional oil reserves from a 90 percent probability down to a 50 percent probability from 1984. The result has been an apparent (but not real) increase in their ‘proved’ conventional oil reserves of some 435 billion barrels.”

Global reserves have been further inflated, he wrote in his study, by adding reserve figures from Venezuelan heavy oil and Canadian tar sands – despite the fact that they are “more difficult and costly to extract” and generally of “poorer quality” than conventional oil. This has brought up global reserve estimates by a further 440 billion barrels.

Jefferson’s conclusion is stark: “Put bluntly, the standard claim that the world has proved conventional oil reserves of nearly 1.7 trillion barrels is overstated by about 875 billion barrels. Thus, despite the fall in crude oil prices from a new peak in June, 2014, after that of July, 2008, the ‘peak oil’ issue remains with us.”

Read More

OPEC Update

Ron Patterson 256 Comments

All charts are updated through March 2016

The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out out. The charts are “Crude Only” production and do not reflect condensate production.

Also the charts, except for Libya, are not zero based. I chose to amplify the change rather than the total. OPEC is now 13 nations with the the addition of Indonesia.

All Data is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 13

OPEC production was up 15,000 barrels per day in March. But there has really been very little change since June of 2015.

Read More

OPEC Declines in February Despite Huge Iran Increase

Ron Patterson 366 Comments

All charts are through February 2016

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report just came out. The charts are “Crude Only” production and do not reflect condensate production.

Also the charts, except for Libya, are not zero based. I chose to amplify the change rather than the total. OPEC is now 13 nations with the the addition of Indonesia.

All Data is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 13

OPEC production was down 174,800 barrels per day in February Read More