Department of Economics, University of Utah
E-mail: minqi.li@economics.utah.edu
July 2018
This is Part 2 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This part of the Annual Report provides updated analysis of world oil production and consumption, evaluates the future prospect of world oil supply and considers the implications of peak oil production for global economic growth.
(See Figure 18 near end of paper) Read More
Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread please.
It was expected by many, me included but more importantly UKOGA and a couple of the bigger oil and gas consultancies, that UK offshore oil production would increase significantly from 2017 to exceed 1000 kbpd for the yearly average in 2018. So far this is proving a bit of a challenge. March production was 934 kbpd, down 7% m-o-m and 2% y-o-y (but up 0.8% for the first quarter compared with 2017). It’s possible that some fields have not reported but those showing zero for the month are not big producers. The biggest single field drop came from Clair but most fields saw declines, even the newer ones. Jodi data indicates there will be a rise shown for April to slightly above 1000 kbpd and then a fall back to around March numbers in May (note edit based on July Jodi data); there is usually a summer dip because of maintenance shutdowns (plus this year some strikes at Total platforms will impact).
Two of the largest oil producers, Buzzard and the Golden Eagle Area Development, both operated by Nexen, have started accelerated decline following increasing water breakthrough (especially noticeable in GEAD over the past year). The newest large field is Scheihallion. This is a redevelopment with its neighbouring field, Loyal, through the Glen Lyon FPSO (also called the Quad 204 project), which was started last year. So far the combined decline in Buzzard and GEAD is almost matching growth in Scheihallion.
The Clair Ridge platforms, which will also exploit the remaining heavy oil in the Clair field, were installed last year but there have been multiple delays and production is not now expected until later this year. Once it is ramped up, which could take three or four years despite it having some predrilled wells, the project will be the largest producer at 100 to 120 mmbpd and has an eight year plateau, while Scheihallion/Loyal will plateau and decline quickly.
The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on Jun 25th, with data for April 2018. The table above shows the percentage contribution of the main fuel sources to two decimal places for the last two months and the year to date. Read More
All data below is from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is in thousand barrels per day and is through June 2018.
The Republic of the Congo was added to OPEC this month. The data below does not reflect that addition. I will try to add them next month.
OPEC 14 production was up 161,000 barrels per day in June. That does not include the Congo which was up 12 kbpd.
Notice: This is The Republic of the Congo, a much smaller nation than the DRC, or The Democratic Republic of the Congo.
May OPEC production was revised down 39,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia was revised up 28,000 bpd, Qatar was revised up 17,000 bpd while Nigeria’s May production was revised down 79,000 bpd.
