Month: March 2016

I don’t have anything ready to post and have noticed the conversation has wandered far from Oil and Natural Gas in the previous thread. Please post comments on non-Petroleum topics in this thread. Petroleum (Oil and Natural Gas) topics should go in the Open Thread- Petroleum post.

It is too much work to move comments from one thread to the other so I may delete posts that are in the wrong thread.

It will help if you don’t respond to posts that are in the wrong thread, even simple stuff like “Wrong thread” will not allow me to delete the comment without messing up the conversation.

We will see how this works.

So two threads, Petroleum and non-Petroleum, when in doubt use the non-Petroleum thread. By Petroleum, I mean Oil and Natural Gas.

I don’t have anything ready to post and have noticed the conversation has wandered far from Oil and Natural Gas in the previous thread.  Please post comments on non-Petroleum topics in this thread.  Petroleum (Oil and Natural Gas) topics should go in the Open Thread- Petroleum post.

It is too much work to move comments from one thread to the other so I may delete posts that are in the wrong thread.

It will help if you don’t respond to posts that are in the wrong thread, even simple stuff like “Wrong thread” will not allow me to delete the comment without messing up the conversation.

We will see how this works.

So two threads, Petroleum and non-Petroleum, when in doubt use the non-Petroleum thread.  By Petroleum, I mean Oil and Natural Gas.

This is a guest post by Ian Schindler (Schinzy).

The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson or Dennis Coyne.

Introduction

This work is preliminary. It is a preview of part of a paper I am writing with Aude Illig. There are three main reasons I am making this post. The first is as a public service. There are many people reading this blog who are directly affected by oil prices and who have to make decisions based on future oil prices. Having a model to understand the dynamics of oil prices is of use to them. The second reason is that some people reading this blog model oil extraction. These models either omit price considerations or make assumptions on them. Our model is a large improvement on these assumptions so it should improve their extraction models. The final reason is that I consider the quality of the comments on this blog to be high. I believe that the feedback I get from this post will improve the quality of the final paper. Indeed, Dennis Coyne has already provided valuable feedback after previewing the post. This study has been a humbling experience. Get ready to throw out everything you thought you knew about oil prices.

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