48 thoughts to “Open Thread, Non-Petroleum, November 24, 2020”

  1. What type of real estate will be most likely to appreciate in any future petroleum deprived society?

    1. The usual expectation is that high fuel prices would deter consumption, so people would move into town to reduce transportation costs. So residential buildings in cities.

      One of the less realists aspects of American eschaton fantasies is that you are best off in a cabin in Montana. This shows how addicted people are to gasoline. The fantasy only makes sense if there is plenty of it around. Otherwise you would be better off near other people. Youtube is full of videos of people living “off grid” in desert places, and driving an oversized pickup to get there. It’S tehsame error.

      1. I look forward to the first video of people living off grid and driving a Tesla Cybertruck to get there…

      2. EVs will transport people at an overall slightly lower cost than ICEs, so cost won’t affect home buying much.

        Car makers are taking advantage of the electronic platform to implement autonomous driving, which will reduce the opportunity cost of spending time in the car, so all else being equal I’d expect a modest increase in demand for more distant suburbs and rural housing.

        OTOH, all else isn’t equal: Covid-19 probably will only be a speed bump on the road to greater urbanization…

      3. That’s an easy stereotype to envision but it’s not necessarily what’s happening. I belong to a ‘doomstead’ forum where we discuss living on our doomsteads or our plans for living on a doomstead. In my case, 77 years old with COPD and high blood pressure, I have been enjoying my self isolation. I have 2 years of food in storage, solar electricity, good water from a rain catch system and a Berkey water purifier, and lots of books, music, movies, and old radio programs in several formats. I’ve spent over 15 years finding/developing garden plants that are adapted to my poor soil and frequent droughts/heat. I have an extensive medicinal herb garden. I have privacy and beauty all around me. Every doomstead is different and the only thing more enjoyable than talking about our doomsteads is living on them.

    2. In a petrol deprived scenario, real estate that can generate enough energy for you to travel ten thousand miles a year and to power your home, from the solar energy energy , will be more highly valued. And if you have a bigger if a bigger piece of land you can sell the energy.
      That recipe is viable today in most of the USA- if you have good sun exposure. We are not talking about future possibilities. This was financially and technically viable in the last decade.
      And yes, property that has good soil is a big winner.

    3. “What type of real estate will be most likely to appreciate in any future petroleum deprived society?”
      Always have your property uphill. Its a lot easier to walk or ride your bike downhill.

      1. Make sure you ebike fleet has Regen, so you can get back up the mountain.

        1. When I was in Hong Kong in 2019, the difference between Teslas gliding and the taxis and luxury cars wheezing and puffing up and down The Peak (the expensive residential are just up the steep hill from Central Hong Kong) was painfully obvious. The fact the regen was also saving the Tesla owners energy costs just made it that much more entertaining.

          Places like this show the limits of combustion engine tech.
          https://www.google.com/maps/@22.2756384,114.153774,3a,75y,359.78h,76.11t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s-iucnZ_5cz23TBA-i3qGyw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

      2. I was kidding about living uphill. That advantage only works one way. It only takes once to learn that.

    4. Urban Mediterranean climate with a view and walking distance to a bar with good 50’s and 60’s music.

      Location, location, location

      1. When you add climate change to the mix- a big point is that certain real estate will be in big trouble.
        Especially those that are close to current river flood and coastal tidal zones (within 10 feet elevation), and those in fire zones.
        In my area of Calif, people are having trouble finding home insurance because of the fire risk. Lots of trouble.
        Same thing will be happening more and more near sea level and along rivers.
        You really want to be at least 10 feet above previous record high tides and highest prior floods.
        Records will be broken- count on it.
        When insurance companies will no longer renew policies at a particular area, the value of the real estate will plummet, and rightly so.
        I strongly suggest that people move away from these trouble spots while the getting is good.

        Because of severe fire risk at my site, we are indeed moving this very winter.

    1. People have been selling food they produce for many thousands of years, and yes that includes all the time before petrol. Just how many goats can one family eat?

      1. An economic collapse will mean the end of money and buying/selling. Some people look for trade/barter to replace that but I think the gift economy is more likely in most cases.

  3. Historical estimates of population, combined with the projected population to 2100 based on the UN’s medium variant scenario-

    -In 26 years Nigeria is on track to become the worlds third biggest country, overtaking the USA (year 2047)
    -India will become the largest country in 5 years (year 2026)
    -Europe will reach its peak population in 2 years (year 2023)

    You see this kind of info in interactive graphic terms at this website. Pick any country of continent you want to compare.
    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-population-race-a-300-year-look-at-china-vs-india/

      1. Lets hope that they are correct with their lower projections.
        That was published in 2014, wonder if they have updated it? Looking at the one chart, they may already be more than 200 M short.
        The UN data is 2019 updated, but uses slightly different projection methods.
        Either way , huge changes within particular countries, and huge growth in absolute numbers is baked in the cake- about 2 billion more people.
        Also baked in the cake already is peak world population sometime late in this century.

          1. Hope the growth is this slow, only adding 2 more Billion.
            Not much solace to the small residual fragment of wildlife yet uneaten, or not yet uprooted from their burrow.
            No children is the greatest act of kindness and restraint that a human can accomplish.

            1. Hickory,

              One child works fine, especially if most people choose this option. Once human population approaches a sustainable level (1 billion maybe, this is not clear) 2 children per woman on average is a possible target to aim for.

        2. The UN tends to systematically overestimate the future fertility rates.
          I have said this several times here in the last couple of years. Nice to see they are realizing it themselves.

  4. Here’s an article in the BBC about space based solar energy:
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201126-the-solar-discs-that-could-beam-power-from-space

    In my opinion, this is a solution in search of a problem. There is no shortage of land for solar panels on the ground, and that energy should be cheaper than a space based solution, so this pig has no wings.

    I think the idea comes from an attempt to project 20th century energy arrangements on the future. Large centralized energy sources will be replace by smaller, less centralized projects.

    1. I generally agree, although if there was a viable and cost-competitive system there would be great utility in the benefit of 24 hour above atmosphere solar collection, particularly in the winter far from the equator.
      “A Sun-synchronous orbit can place a satellite in constant sunlight, which allows the solar panels to work continually”

      1. Probably more cost effective to use green methane or hydrogen produced with excess power in summer or to use intercontinental HVDC transmission to move power south to north and north to south, probably some combination of the two approaches will be best and likely cheaper than a satellite type solar power system.

        1. Not to mention that power delivered in a tight beam from space sounds a lot like a Star Wars death ray. Gosh…what could go wrong?

        2. Yes, as you say Dennis-probably.

          I have absolutely no idea how you could get a huge stream of energy down to the earth surface and harness it safely. Sounds like channeling lightening or some such thing. But the article says something to the affect that they’ll figure it out. I still find it hard to believe we can transmit electricity along a wire, or hear a voice through the air from the moon, or even a mile away.

          1. “I have absolutely no idea how you could get a huge stream of energy down to the earth surface and harness it safely.”

            Really, It happens 24/7 on half of plant earth. Sometimes it’s just “keep it simple stupid”. Solar panels, no moving parts.

            KISS

  5. Interesting discussion on EV adoption and how quickly it will happen. Mid-decade still looks like it will be an inflection point upwards, but possible limitations include mining constraints and charging infrastructure. There have been multiple announcements in the last few weeks on the manufacturer side that are promising, where major companies are moving forward their EV plans: VW, GM, Maserati…

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/11/27/electric-vehicle-adoption-about-to-explode-or-slow-steady/

    1. Good article.
      Over the last couple of years it has become clear that the electric vehicle story is no longer about who can bring EV’s to markets- easily a dozen manufacturers are in the game now with technically outstanding products.
      The challenge will be ramping up manufacturing capacity. Some car makers will be more successful than others.
      The race is on, and its an explosion to the upside for this industry.

  6. The ‘renewable’ energy production mix from the top ten renewable producing states is shown in chart form.
    Dark blue is hydroelectric, playing a dominant role in the western states and NY.
    Most remarkable to me is the strong early showing of N. Carolina with Solar (yellow), especially when you see that it is outshining much bigger and sunnier Texas.
    Texas wind + solar is going to be huge, and solar is going to spread rapidly throughout the southeast (perhaps co-mingled with grazing).

    1. Expecting to see a huge ramp up in big wind in the North Sea over this decade as the offshore oil industry wanes and gets converted to wind turbine installation in Scotland and Norway. The Danes and Germans are already industry leaders, so this whole area will likely be the innovation center worldwide for decades to come.

      1. Very true. Its a resource mother load, with shallow seas.
        New global mapping shows it well-
        https://globalwindatlas.info/

        And the countries are awaking to the possibilities-
        “the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, presented its offshore wind strategy. The plan includes greater cooperation on planning and cross-border project development, but the headline figures were the targets — 60 GW by 2030 (up from 12 GW today) and 300 GW (not a typo) by 2050.”
        https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-europe-can-build-100gw-of-offshore-wind-by-2030

        These goals are very ambitious- with 60GW’s wind equal to about 20 1000MW Nuc Plants.

        The coast off of New England/Maritimes is also a prime spot for development.
        Also, the shallow seas off of Argentina will enable that region to export huge amounts of H2 or Ammonia.

      2. Stephen , ramp up with what ? Bullshit . Europe is broke . Period . Zombie banks, zombie corporates ,zombie politicians . Reporting from the heart of Europe called Brussels . You have not an inkling as to what is happening here . People believe not what is true but what they desire to be true . I quit .

        1. H in H- you seem miserable to find out that wind energy is in the 1st stage of becoming a giant industry in the waters off UK, France, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden.
          Maybe do a little reading on it before you have a collapse.
          While you have been looking down, certain wind energy companies have been thriving- Orsted, Siemens-Gamesa, Iberdola, Vestas.
          They are not waiting for you to declare the industry viable.
          Browse the wind atlas to see what has got their attention-
          https://globalwindatlas.info/
          Its a world class resource.

          Once in a while-
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_-q9xeOgG4

        2. Head in Hole,

          I was under the impression you lived in India…

          Everything is there in the North Sea for it to happen: the resource, the skill set, the remaining fossil fuels to make the transition, the need to retrain workers. Maybe it won’t happen but that doesn’t change the fact that it is happening right now.

  8. Can you share any survival forum that is rich on growing herbs and food? I’m in the slow process in relocating to the Ozarks, hope I don’t run out of time. It takes many years to acheive resiliency. Started a big Sunchoke patch.

    1. LONGTIMBER —

      Having worked among indigenous people in remote areas, the almost ubiquitous (survival) food I observed was chickens (meat and eggs). Pigs, goats and cows are universally common as well. In the north you can get your protein and vitamins from fish; the Inuit ate only meat and fish. Of course, ice fishing is common throughout the northern latitudes, as long as the ice will support you.

      Potatoes, in various forms, will sustain but would not recommend it. On the plus side they will grow almost anywhere. Until the blight spuds kept the Irish (and Scots) alive, sort of. Guess it depends largely on where you live. Warmer places, i.e., Madagascar, often seem to go with one-pot dishes, usually on rice. Basically: beef, pork and chicken plus onions, tomatoes, spinach, garlic, etcetera. Maybe just go to your nearest MacDonald’s or eat equally wholesome cardboard.

      Almost forgot, beans are commonly eaten around the world and are a rich source of fiber and B vitamins. They are also a great replacement for meat as a source of vegetarian protein.

      1. Potatoes doubled the population of Northern Europe with the introduction from South America.

  9. Mark Shepard’s book “Restoration Agriculture” is the bomb.

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